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DOE OSTI2022

Representing Global Soil Erosion and Sediment Flux in Earth System Models

Abstract Soil erosion produces enormous amounts of sediment, carbon, and nutrient fluxes from land to rivers, thus playing crucial roles in global biogeochemical cycles and food security. To predict soil erosion in the context of climate and land use changes, we explicitly parameterize cropland management actions (i.e., irrigation, conserved agriculture, and crop residue management) and geological factors (i.e., lithology and glacier) in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) soil erosion module. The erosion model is calibrated using a global‐scale regionalized parameter calibration method. The spatial variabilities of the modeled and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) based benchmark soil erosion are consistent across vegetation, climate and soil properties. Compared with independent data, our model shows a bias reduction in 59% of the observations relative to the RUSLE‐based soil erosion, with 53% of the bias reduction exceeding 50%. This improvement is mainly due to a better representation of the topographic effect on soil erosion. Our results indicate that conserved agriculture practices have effectively reduced soil erosion in cropland by over 25% in the United States and Argentina. In contrast, irrigation has increased soil erosion in many Asian countries. For upland sediment flux, our model is consistent with the WBMsed benchmark data in inter‐basin variability but could be more skillful in simulating intra‐basin variability because it couples soil erosion and sediment flux explicitly. The developed model provides useful skills for more realistic predictions of soil erosion and river sediment dynamics under environmental changes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predictive Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification in Condition Monitoring of Active Components: A Reactor Coolant Pump Use Case

This work develops data-driven models for onset of thermal barrier leakage in reactor coolant pumps. It incorporates uncertainty quantification to enhance the reliability and robustness of pre- dictions. Using synthetic data generated by the Generic Pressurized Water Reactor simulator, realistic degradation scenarios were simulated across lifecycle stages—beginning, middle, and end of life. Key variables, including differential pressure, flow rate, vibration, and temperatures, were analyzed using machine learning framework. The fully connected neural network models demonstrated exceptional performance, achieving R2 scores exceeding 0.99 and root mean square errors as low as around 8.23 × 10-2 gallon per minute (gpm) for the three stages of the lifecy- cle. UQ analysis further validated the model’s robustness, with narrow uncertainty bounds during steady-state operations and appropriately wider bounds during transitional phases, reflecting the physical behavior of the system. This work addresses important gaps in real-time condition moni- toring and regulatory compliance by integrating advanced condition monitoring technologies with UQ into IST programs. The ability to detect thermal barrier leakage early and quantify prediction reliability supports optimizing maintenance strategies while ensuring nuclear power plants’ safe and reliable operation.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Strategies for community-sourced biocuration in bioinformatics: a case study on MIBiG 4.0

Biocuration is essential to transform molecular sequence data into standardized, machine-readable resources. Such curated datasets enable comparative analysis, predictive modeling, and data integration across bioinformatics platforms. While professional biocuration is resource-intensive and usually limited to institutional settings, community-driven approaches can mobilize large-scale annotation of specialized datasets and are more resilient to disruptions in scientific funding. Here, we present a model for community-powered curation applied to the Minimum Information about a Biosynthetic Gene Cluster (MIBiG) repository. Through a framework of workflows for metadata capture, annotation validation, and contributor coordination, the MIBiG 4.0 initiative recruited 267 scientists across 178 institutions from 33 countries, volunteering an estimated 4000 h of work. These efforts expanded the MIBiG repository by 22% and enhanced its usability in downstream molecular data analyses in comparative genomic analyses, natural product discovery, and machine learning applications. We provide strategies and actionable lessons for adopting this model, supporting the sustainability of curated bioinformatics resources central to nucleic acid research and related fields.

biocuration↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the formation of Sedan Crater using the FLAG and HOSS codes

Numerical modeling of explosion crater formation requires accounting for complex physical processes. Numerical validation of explosion cratering is an important step in modeling and requires experimental data for comparison. Models using discrete elements and continuum models have both benefits and drawbacks to their approaches. In this work, we consider both an arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian (ALE) hydrocode and a finite discrete element method (FDEM) approach to modeling the formation of the Sedan crater, the largest human-made crater in the United States. The Sedan crater formed from an underground nuclear detonation in the Nevada desert as part of Project Plowshare. Our models show that the continuum approach of the hydrocode matched well compared to early test time prior to the mound rupture and subsequent fireball venting, when most of the alluvium exhibited fluid behavior. Our FDEM approach matched the final crater dimensions well, after material had settled back into the crater, when material strength and solid mechanics play key roles. Our work shows how leveraging the benefits of multiple numerical approaches can lead to better understanding of complex physical problems, especially problems with limited experimental data. By using a continuum approach to early-time hydrodynamics and an FDEM approach to later-time solid mechanics, we can better understand the different physical regimes of explosion crater formation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Industry-Average Performance for Components and Initiating Events at U.S. Commercial Nuclear Power Plants: 2020 Update

This report documents the quantitative results of the current industry-average performance for components and initiating events (IEs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). It represents the third update of the original analysis in NUREG/CR-6928 with data through 2020. Continuous characterization and updating of current industry-average performance with the latest industry data available are important steps in maintaining up-to-date risk models. Typically, data from 1998–2002 were used in NUREG/CR-6928, data from 1998–2010 in the first update, data from 1998–2015 in the second update, and data from 2006–2020 in this update, although many IEs required longer periods for adequate characterization of frequencies in all these analyses. As with NUREG/CR-6928 and previous updates, four types of events are covered in this report: component unreliability (e.g., a pump that fails to start or fails to run), component or train unavailability resulting from test or maintenance outages, special event probabilities covering operational issues (e.g., pump restarts and injection valve re-openings during unplanned demands), and IE frequencies. Results (in the form of beta distributions for failure probabilities upon demand and gamma distributions for rates) are used as inputs to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission standardized plant analysis risk models covering U.S. commercial NPPs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Specific absorbed fractions for a revised series of the UF/NCI pediatric reference phantoms: internal photon sources

Assessment of radiation absorbed dose to internal organs of the body from the intake of radionuclides, or in the medical setting through the injection of radiopharmaceuticals, is generally performed based upon reference biokinetic models or patient imaging data, respectively. Biokinetic models estimate the time course of activity localized to source organs. The time-integration of these organ activity profiles are then scaled by the radionuclide S-value, which defines the absorbed dose to a target tissue per nuclear transformation in various source tissues. S-values are computed using established nuclear decay information (particle energies and yields), and a parameter termed the specific absorbed fraction (SAF). The SAF is the ratio of the absorbed fraction—fraction of particle energy emitted in the source tissue that is deposited in the target tissue—and the target organ mass. While values of the SAF may be computed using patient-specific or individual-specific anatomic models, they have been more widely available through the use of computational reference phantoms. In this study, we report on an extensive series of photon SAFs computed in a revised series of the University of Florida and the National Cancer Institute pediatric reference phantoms which have been modified to conform to the specifications embodied in the ICRP reference adult phantoms of Publication 110 (e.g. organs modeled, organ ID numbers, blood contribution to elemental compositions). Following phantom anatomical revisions, photon radiation transport simulations were performed using MCNPX v2.7 in each of the ten phantoms of the series—male and female newborn, 1 year old, 5 year old, 10 year old, and 15 year old—for 60 different tissues serving as source and/or target regions. A total of 25 photon energies were considered from 10 keV to 10 MeV along a logarithm energy grid. Detailed analyses were conducted of the relative statistical errors in the Monte Carlo target tissue energy deposition tallies at low photon energies and over all energies for source–target combinations at large intra-organ separation distances. Based on these analyses, various data smoothing algorithms were employed, including multi-point weighted data smoothing, and log–log interpolation at low energies (1 keV and 5 keV) using limiting SAF values based upon target organ mass to bound the interpolation interval. The final dataset is provided in a series of ten electronic supplemental files in MS Excel format. Finally, the results of this study were further used as the basis for assessing the radiative component of internal electron source SAFs as described in our companion paper (Schwarz et al 2021) for this same pediatric phantom series.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Specific absorbed fractions for a revised series of the UF/NCI pediatric reference phantoms: internal electron sources

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

QuantumScents: Quantum-Mechanical Properties for 3.5k Olfactory Molecules

Quantitative structure–odor relationships are critically important for studies related to the function of olfaction. Current literature data sets contain expert-labeled molecules but lack feature data. This paper introduces QuantumScents, a quantum mechanics augmented derivative of the Leffingwell data set. QuantumScents contains 3.5k structurally and chemically diverse molecules ranging from 2 to 30 heavy atoms (CNOS) and their corresponding 3D coordinates, total PBE0 energy, molecular dipole moment, and per-atom Hirshfeld charges, dipoles, and ratios. The authors demonstrate that Hirshfeld charges and ratios contain sufficient information to perform molecular classification by training a Message Passing Neural Network with chemprop (Heid, E.; et al. ChemRxiv, 2023, DOI: 10.26434/chemrxiv-2023-3zcfl) to predict scent labels. Finally, the QuantumScents data set is freely available on Zenodo along with the authors’ code, example models, and data set generation workflow (https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.8239853).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2019

Formulation of Multicomponent Lattice Gas Model Cluster Expansions Parameterized on Ab Initio Data: An Introduction to the Ab Initio Mean-Field Augmented Lattice Gas Modeling Code

A formalism is presented for the construction of multicomponent lattice gas models parameterized with ab initio (typically density functional theory) data. The leave-multiple-out and the leave-one-out cross validation score are showcased, and practical algorithms are developed and implemented in a new code called the Ab initio Mean-field Augmented Lattice Gas Modeling (AMALGM) code. Here, the functionality of these algorithms is demonstrated with a fully worked out example using the O/Fe(100) system. AMALGM and the formalism on which it is based are envisioned as a surface-oriented lattice gas alternative to other cluster expansion codes that are typically geared toward bulk systems whose lateral interactions between components are parameterized using an Ising model. While the formalism is created within the context of surfaces, it is equally applicable to bulk materials.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Causal discovery from data assisted by large language models

Knowledge-driven discovery of novel materials necessitates the development of causal models for property emergence. While in the classical physical paradigm, the causal relationships are deduced based on physical principles or via experiment, the rapid accumulation of observational data necessitates learning causal relationships between dissimilar aspects of material structure and functionalities based on observations. For this, it is essential to integrate experimental data with prior domain knowledge. Here, we demonstrate this approach by combining high-resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy data with insights derived from large language models (LLMs). By applying ChatGPT to domain-specific literature, such as arXiv papers on ferroelectrics, and combining the obtained information with data-driven causal discovery, we construct adjacency matrices for directed acyclic graphs that map the causal relationships between structural, chemical, and polarization degrees of freedom in Sm-doped BiFeO 3 . This approach enables us to hypothesize how synthesis conditions influence material properties and guides experimental validation. Furthermore, the ultimate objective of this work is to develop a unified framework that integrates LLM-driven literature analysis with data-driven discovery, facilitating the precise engineering of ferroelectric materials by establishing clear connections between synthesis conditions and their resulting material properties.

Causal inference↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model-based predictive control of multi-zone commercial building with a lumped building modelling approach

Here this study investigates the applicability of a lumped building modeling approach to model-based predictive control (MPC) to alleviate the complex modeling process of the grey-box multi-zone building model. Based on experimental data, two building models were estimated in this study. The detailed model as a reference case and a lumped model were estimated with decentralized and conventional approaches, respectively. Then, simulations were performed with two boundary conditions, including the comfort bound and electricity cost structure. The performances of the MPC with the detailed and lumped models were analyzed compared to the feedback control. More savings was achieved with a larger comfort bound and more aggressive electricity cost structure. The savings potential of the proposed lumped model approach was not as high as that of the detailed model. However, the proposed method yields good control performance, whose savings was approximately 8.6% over that of feedback control. These results suggest that the proposed method can be used to facilitate MPC implementation in multi-zone building applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Opportunities and data requirements for data-driven prognostics and health management in liquid hydrogen storage systems

During the past decade, Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) has become an important set of tools in various areas of industry and academic reliability engineering. PHM consists of a variety of mathematical and computational methods used to support data-driven decision-making to increase the safety, availability, and reliability of complex engineering systems. In particular, PHM can provide crucial insight into reliability and safety design improvements for developing technologies where historical performance and failure data are limited. This is the case of hydrogen fueling and storage technologies. This work presents a high-level approach for designing data-driven PHM applications for bulk liquid hydrogen (LH 2 ) storage systems for hydrogen fueling stations. This paper addresses core aspects of the design, development, and implementation of data-driven PHM applications that can improve the reliability assessment of hydrogen components. The analysis focuses on the relationship between data availability and diagnostic/prognostic capabilities; potential challenges; and integration schemes for current risk mitigation measures. We identify potential condition-monitoring data sources for key components in an LH 2 storage system, including storage tanks, piping, and pumps. Further, we determine that the short-term goals for the implementation of data-driven models in PHM frameworks in hydrogen systems should focus on developing adequate data collection and analysis strategies, as well as exploring the effect on reliability, safety, and regulations for hydrogen systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Thermodynamic description of molten salt systems: KCl-LiCl-NaCl and KCl-LiCl-NdCl 3

The mixture of KCl and LiCl has been used as electrolyte in the electrorefining process to recover uranium from used nuclear fuels due to the low melting point. However, lanthanides and sodium in the reactor waste continuously dissolve into it and thus alter its thermodynamic properties. To understand the thermodynamic behavior evolution of the electrolyte with the accumulation of impurities, thermodynamic modeling for KCl-LiCl-NaCl and KCl-LiCl-NdCl 3 and four constituent binary systems in the entire composition space was performed using the CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagrams) approach. The ionic liquid was described by the two-sublattice model, where neutral species were introduced to consider short-range ordering (SRO) within the melt, whereas the solid solution was modeled based on the Compound Energy Formalism. Literature data on phase equilibria and thermochemical properties were critically evaluated and used during the optimization of thermodynamic parameters for KCl-LiCl-NaCl and KCl-LiCl-NdCl 3 and their subsystems. The calculated phase diagrams and mixing enthalpies are in good agreement with the experimental data. The thermodynamic modeling for the KCl-LiCl-NdCl 3 system was carried out for the first time. To fill the gap in experimental measurement, enthalpy of mixing for the KCl-LiCl-NdCl 3 melt was estimated using the surrounded-ion model. These data then served as critical inputs for thermodynamic optimization. Furthermore, the present study can provide insights into thermodynamic property evolution of the electrolyte and solubility limit of various impurities during the electrorefining process.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing molecular design efficiency: Uniting language models and generative networks with genetic algorithms

This study examines the effectiveness of generative models in drug discovery, material science, and polymer science, aiming to overcome constraints associated with traditional inverse design methods relying on heuristic rules. Generative models generate synthetic data resembling real data, enabling deep learning model training without extensive labeled datasets. They prove valuable in creating virtual libraries of molecules for material science and facilitating drug discovery by generating molecules with specific properties. While generative adversarial networks (GANs) are explored for these purposes, mode collapse restricts their efficacy, limiting novel structure variability. To address this, we introduce a masked language model (LM) inspired by natural language processing. Although LMs alone can have inherent limitations, we propose a hybrid architecture combining LMs and GANs to efficiently generate new molecules, demonstrating superior performance over standalone masked LMs, particularly for smaller population sizes. This hybrid LM-GAN architecture enhances efficiency in optimizing properties and generating novel samples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparison between mirror Langmuir probe and gas-puff imaging measurements of intermittent fluctuations in the Alcator C-Mod scrape-off layer

Statistical properties of the scrape-off layer plasma fluctuations are studied in ohmically heated plasmas in the Alcator C-Mod tokamak. For the first time, plasma fluctuations as well as parameters that describe the fluctuations are compared across measurements from a mirror Langmuir probe (MLP) and from gas-puff imaging (GPI) that sample the same plasma discharge. This comparison is complemented by an analysis of line emission time-series data, synthesized from the MLP electron density and temperature measurements. The fluctuations observed by the MLP and GPI typically display relative fluctuation amplitudes of order unity together with positively skewed and flattened probability density functions. Such data time series are well described by an established stochastic framework that models the data as a superposition of uncorrelated, two-sided exponential pulses. The most important parameter of the process is the intermittency parameter, $γ=τ_d/τ_w$, where τd denotes the duration time of a single pulse and $τ_w$ gives the average waiting time between consecutive pulses. In this study we show, using a new deconvolution method, that these parameters can be consistently estimated from different statistics of the data. We also show that the statistical properties of the data sampled by the MLP and GPI diagnostic are very similar. Finally, a synthetic GPI signal using only plasma parameters sampled by the MLP shows qualitatively different fluctuation statistics from the measured GPI signal.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

TGA Study of the Reaction Kinetics of a CuFeMnAlO 4+δ Oxygen Carrier for Methane Chemical Looping Combustion under High Pressure and Atmospheric Pressure Conditions

Reduction and oxidation kinetics of a CuFeMnAlO 4+δ oxygen carrier for methane were studied using an atmospheric thermogravimetric analyzer (TGA) and a pressurized TGA. Important parameters such as temperature (500–900 °C), particle size distribution (150–650 μm), and partial pressures of reactants (methane and oxygen) were evaluated. Results showed that the reduction of the oxygen carrier was not affected by particle size distribution studied in this work, and that above 750 °C, the effect of the temperature on oxygen carrier reduction started to diminish. The reaction time approaches an asymptotic limit as methane partial pressure increases. For oxygen carrier oxidation, it was found that the rate of oxidation increased with increasing oxygen concentration. The effect of the oxygen concentration was more noticeable when the oxygen concentration was below 7.5%. Because of the inherent feature of the oxygen carrier, its chemical looping with oxygen uncoupling property was also assessed. A phase boundary-controlled shrinking sphere model was used to model the test data from the TGAs. Modeling results showed that the oxygen carrier reduction had a reaction order of 1 with an activation energy of ∼46 kJ/mol. Oxygen carrier oxidation demonstrated a reaction order of 1.1 with an activation energy of ∼55 kJ/mol. Additionally, the differences of the experimental results between the atmospheric pressure TGA and the pressurized TGA were discussed in detail and the limitations of the pressurized TGA were highlighted.

Hydrocarbons↗

DOE OSTI2020

Interpretation of Lyman opacity measurements in JET with the ITER-like wall using a particle balance approach

Recent measurements of the Ly β /D α ratio in the JET ITER-like wall (ILW) divertor show comparatively more pronounced Ly β reabsorption relative to previous results in JET with the carbon wall (JET-C). At the outer horizontal target ion current rollover point a Ly β reabsorption rate of 60% is measured, increasing to 80% in more pronounced detachment, implying a Ly α reabsorption rate of 90%–98%. The radially resolved Ly β /D α measurements are used to constrain Lyman opacity corrections to atomic rate coefficients using the population escape factor technique in order to capture the local changes to the excited state population structure in the high Lyman opacity regions at and outboard of the outer strike point. To check the self-consistency of the Lyman opacity measurements, a detailed spectroscopic interpretation of the outer divertor particle balance is presented, in which the impact of opacity corrections to the Ly α inverse photon efficiency coefficients is assessed. A five-fold deficit in the estimated D + source rate obtained with optically thin plasma assumptions is reconciled once the opacity corrections are factored into the Ly α photon rate to ionization rate conversion. The experiment results are reproduced in EDGE2D-EIRENE density scan simulations in which an imposed ad hoc Lyman reabsorption rate is recovered spectroscopically using synthetic measurements, and a similar shortfall in the D + source rate estimates is reconciled using Lyman opacity corrected atomic data. The model limitations prevent a more detailed self-consistent analysis of the Lyman opacity impact on divertor parameters and detachment evolution, and hence motivate renewed efforts to re-establish routine exploitation of the photon transport modelling capabilities in the EIRENE code package. Lyman opacity corrections to atomic data coefficients are necessary for spectroscopic interpretation of the JET-ILW divertor plasma, with significant influence on the divertor plasma also a likely consequence of the presence of strong Ly α reabsorption. Finally, a scan of auxiliary heating powers spanning L-mode and H-mode conditions reveals a strong correlation of the measured Ly β opacity with the outer target temperature, suggesting new possibilities for using Lyman opacity measurements in establishing detachment scalings.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Calculation of the Vertical Strata Load of Utility Tunnel Crossing Ground Fissure Zone

A ground fissure is a geological disaster in which the vertical dislocation of strata causes surface rupture. Ground fissures can cause extreme harm to the surface and underground buildings. Ground fissure activity can result in different settlement on the two sides of the strata, which will generate additional stress (pressure) that differs from the stress of the general stratum on underground structures across the ground fissure zone. It is essential to assess the effective stress of strata in the design of underground engineering structures across a ground fissure zone. The Xi’an ground fissure through a utility tunnel was focus of the research, and a physical model and data for oblique crossing of the 45° ground fissure were analyzed. A model of the utility tunnel structure was established, including the surrounding soil load as an active ground fissure environment. This model was used to calculate the vertical formation pressure of the overlying soil on the utility tunnel. A method to calculate the overlying load on the utility tunnel caused by ground fissure activity was proposed and compared with the calculation based on the A. Marston principle. The results showed that the ground fissure load calculation method based on the strata-holding effect can effectively calculate the earth pressure of the surrounding soil layer of the utility tunnel in the cross-ground fissure section. The results of this work provide guidance and reference value for the design of a utility tunnel in an area with the potential for a ground fissure.

Zhang, Dan↗