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Remote Sensing, Uncertainty Quantification, and a Theory of Data Systems; Workshop Report

The purpose of the workshop was to invite statisticians, applied mathematicians, computer scientists, data system architects, experts in remote sensing technology, and Climate and Earth System scientists to review, discuss, and plan research on issues related to large-scale, efficient analysis of distributed data using spatial statistical methods. Our motivation in organizing this event was to catalyze interchange among experts on the fast-emerging problem of analysis of distributed data. As part of SAMSI's 2017-2018 Program on Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Climate and the Earth System, a Working Group on Remote Sensing was established to address statistical and mathematical research problems in the analysis of remote sensing data. The Working Group has five subgroups: 1) Spatial Retrieval Methodology (the so-called \Spatial-X" subgroup); 2) Spatial Analysis for Hyperspectral Data (the so-called \Spatial-Y" subgroup); 3) Emulators for Complex Forward Models; 4) Optimization for Remote Sensing Retrievals; and 5) Theory of Data Systems (ToDS). The ToDS subgroup spent the first half of this academic year formulating a framework in which to consider the joint problem of a) optimizing statistical methods for environments where data are distributed and too large to move to a central location, and b) the design of data system infrastructures within which to implement those statistical methods. To x ideas, the Workshop focused on spatial statistical methods. To date there are many new spatial statistical methods designed with massive data sets in mind, in the literature. However, very few have been implemented for remote sensing data, and none have been implemented in operational settings like those used by NASA and NOAA. A major impediment to their use in these cases is that the data are not only massive, but are stored in different physical locations. These data must be brought together in some way in order to estimate spatial covariance functions, but moving data to a central location for analysis is tedious at best and impossible at worst. Some remote data reduction is almost certainly necessary, but how much? What are the consequences for inference? The fundamental issue underlying these questions is how to navigate the trade-space between costs and uncertainty in the estimates or inferences that are ultimately produced.

Braverman, Amy↗

Laser machined plastic laminates. Towards portable diagnostic devices for use in low resource environments

Despite significant progress in development of bioanalytical devices cost, complexity, access to reagents and lack of infrastructure have prevented use of these technologies in resource-limited regions. To provide a sustainable tool in the global effort to combat infectious diseases the diagnostic device must be low cost, simple to operate and read, robust, and have sensitivity and specificity comparable to laboratory analysis. Thus, in this mini-review we describe recent work using laser machined plastic laminates to produce diagnostic devices that are capable of a wide variety of bioanalytical measurements and show great promise towards future use in low-resource environments.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Predictive analytics tools to adjust and monitor performance metrics for the ATLAS Production System

Having information such as an estimation of the processing time or possibility of system outage (abnormal behaviour) helps to assist to monitor system performance and to predict its next state. The current cyber-infrastructure of the ATLAS Production System presents computing conditions in which contention for resources among high-priority data analyses happens routinely, that might lead to significant workload and data handling interruptions. The lack of the possibility to monitor and to predict the behaviour of the analysis process (its duration) and system's state itself provides motivation for a focus on design of the built-in situational awareness analytic tools.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Consolidating WLCG topology and configuration in the Computing Resource Information Catalogue

Here, the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid infrastructure links about 200 participating computing centres affiliated with several partner projects. It is built by integrating heterogeneous computer and storage resources in diverse data centres all over the world and provides CPU and storage capacity to the LHC experiments to perform data processing and physics analysis. In order to be used by the experiments, these distributed resources should be well described, which implies easy service discovery and detailed description of service configuration. Currently this information is scattered over multiple generic information sources like GOCDB, OIM, BDII and experiment-specific information systems. Such a model does not allow to validate topology and configuration information easily. Moreover, information in various sources is not always consistent. Finally, the evolution of computing technologies introduces new challenges. Experiments are more and more relying on opportunistic resources, which by their nature are more dynamic and should also be well described in the WLCG information system. This contribution describes the new WLCG configuration service CRIC (Computing Resource Information Catalogue) which collects information from various information providers, performs validation and provides a consistent set of UIs and APIs to the LHC VOs for service discovery and usage configuration. The main requirements for CRIC are simplicity, agility and robustness. CRIC should be able to be quickly adapted to new types of computing resources, new information sources, and allow for new data structures to be implemented easily following the evolution of the computing models and operations of the experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Mauka Energy FEVER Tool Dataset

Mauka Energy’s dataset, developed under the Forestry Electric Vehicle Energy Routing (FEVER) project and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Small Business Innovation Research program, is a high-resolution geospatial resource designed to support energy modeling for electric log trucks in complex forestry environments. The dataset integrates detailed spatial and road network data to enable accurate simulation of vehicle performance across varied terrain. At its core, the dataset incorporates lidar-derived elevation models, road alignments, and surface classifications from Oregon State University’s McDonald-Dunn Research Forest. These data capture fine-scale variations in slope, curvature, and surface conditions across forest road systems, allowing for vehicle-level analysis of energy consumption and recovery. The dataset also includes data collected on the surrounding public and private road networks in Benton County, Oregon, used in real-world haul routes. These connecting segments provide critical context for modeling transitions between forest operations and regional transportation infrastructure, incorporating attributes such as grade profiles, elevation change, and speed constraints. This combined dataset underpins the development of Mauka Energy’s rolldown tool, which quantifies energy use and regenerative braking potential on downhill and variable-grade segments. By leveraging high-resolution terrain and road data, the FEVER project enables more accurate assessment of electric vehicle feasibility and performance in forestry applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modeling in the State Flow Environment to Support Launch Vehicle Verification Testing for Mission and Fault Management Algorithms in the NASA Space Launch System

Analysis methods and testing processes are essential activities in the engineering development and verification of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) new Space Launch System (SLS). Central to mission success is reliable verification of the Mission and Fault Management (M&FM) algorithms for the SLS launch vehicle (LV) flight software. This is particularly difficult because M&FM algorithms integrate and operate LV subsystems, which consist of diverse forms of hardware and software themselves, with equally diverse integration from the engineering disciplines of LV subsystems. M&FM operation of SLS requires a changing mix of LV automation. During pre-launch the LV is primarily operated by the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) organization with some LV automation of time-critical functions, and much more autonomous LV operations during ascent that have crucial interactions with the Orion crew capsule, its astronauts, and with mission controllers at the Johnson Space Center. M&FM algorithms must perform all nominal mission commanding via the flight computer to control LV states from pre-launch through disposal and also address failure conditions by initiating autonomous or commanded aborts (crew capsule escape from the failing LV), redundancy management of failing subsystems and components, and safing actions to reduce or prevent threats to ground systems and crew. To address the criticality of the verification testing of these algorithms, the NASA M&FM team has utilized the State Flow environment6 (SFE) with its existing Vehicle Management End-to-End Testbed (VMET) platform which also hosts vendor-supplied physics-based LV subsystem models. The human-derived M&FM algorithms are designed and vetted in Integrated Development Teams composed of design and development disciplines such as Systems Engineering, Flight Software (FSW), Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) and major subsystems and vehicle elements such as Main Propulsion Systems (MPS), boosters, avionics, Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C), Thrust Vector Control (TVC), liquid engines, and the astronaut crew office. Since the algorithms are realized using model-based engineering (MBE) methods from a hybrid of the Unified Modeling Language (UML) and Systems Modeling Language (SysML), SFE methods are a natural fit to provide an in depth analysis of the interactive behavior of these algorithms with the SLS LV subsystem models. For this, the M&FM algorithms and the SLS LV subsystem models are modeled using constructs provided by Matlab which also enables modeling of the accompanying interfaces providing greater flexibility for integrated testing and analysis, which helps forecast expected behavior in forward VMET integrated testing activities. In VMET, the M&FM algorithms are prototyped and implemented using the same C++ programming language and similar state machine architectural concepts used by the FSW group. Due to the interactive complexity of the algorithms, VMET testing thus far has verified all the individual M&FM subsystem algorithms with select subsystem vendor models but is steadily progressing to assessing the interactive behavior of these algorithms with LV subsystems, as represented by subsystem models. The novel SFE applications has proven to be useful for quick look analysis into early integrated system behavior and assessment of the M&FM algorithms with the modeled LV subsystems. This early MBE analysis generates vital insight into the integrated system behaviors, algorithm sensitivities, design issues, and has aided in the debugging of the M&FM algorithms well before full testing can begin in more expensive, higher fidelity but more arduous environments such as VMET, FSW testing, and the Systems Integration Lab7 (SIL). SFE has exhibited both expected and unexpected behaviors in nominal and off nominal test cases prior to full VMET testing. In many findings, these behavioral characteristics were used to correct the M&FM algorithms, enable better test coverage, and develop more effective test cases for each of the LV subsystems. This has improved the fidelity of testing and planning for the next generation of M&FM algorithms as the SLS program evolves from non-crewed to crewed flight, impacting subsystem configurations and the M&FM algorithms that control them. SFE analysis has improved robustness and reliability of the M&FM algorithms by revealing implementation errors and documentation inconsistencies. It is also improving planning efficiency for future VMET testing of the M&FM algorithms hosted in the LV flight computers, further reducing risk for the SLS launch infrastructure, the SLS LV, and most importantly the crew.

Trevino, Luis↗

A Vehicle Management End-to-End Testing and Analysis Platform for Validation of Mission and Fault Management Algorithms to Reduce Risk for NASAs Space Launch System

The engineering development of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) new Space Launch System (SLS) requires cross discipline teams with extensive knowledge of launch vehicle subsystems, information theory, and autonomous algorithms dealing with all operations from pre-launch through on orbit operations. The nominal and off-nominal characteristics of SLS's elements and subsystems must be understood and matched with the autonomous algorithm monitoring and mitigation capabilities for accurate control and response to abnormal conditions throughout all vehicle mission flight phases, including precipitating safing actions and crew aborts. This presents a large and complex systems engineering challenge, which is being addressed in part by focusing on the specific subsystems involved in the handling of off-nominal mission and fault tolerance with response management. Using traditional model-based system and software engineering design principles from the Unified Modeling Language (UML) and Systems Modeling Language (SysML), the Mission and Fault Management (M&FM) algorithms for the vehicle are crafted and vetted in Integrated Development Teams (IDTs) composed of multiple development disciplines such as Systems Engineering (SE), Flight Software (FSW), Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) and the major subsystems and vehicle elements such as Main Propulsion Systems (MPS), boosters, avionics, Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC), Thrust Vector Control (TVC), and liquid engines. These model-based algorithms and their development lifecycle from inception through FSW certification are an important focus of SLS's development effort to further ensure reliable detection and response to off-nominal vehicle states during all phases of vehicle operation from pre-launch through end of flight. To test and validate these M&FM algorithms a dedicated test-bed was developed for full Vehicle Management End-to-End Testing (VMET). For addressing fault management (FM) early in the development lifecycle for the SLS program, NASA formed the M&FM team as part of the Integrated Systems Health Management and Automation Branch under the Spacecraft Vehicle Systems Department at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). To support the development of the FM algorithms, the VMET developed by the M&FM team provides the ability to integrate the algorithms, perform test cases, and integrate vendor-supplied physics-based launch vehicle (LV) subsystem models. Additionally, the team has developed processes for implementing and validating the M&FM algorithms for concept validation and risk reduction. The flexibility of the VMET capabilities enables thorough testing of the M&FM algorithms by providing configurable suites of both nominal and off-nominal test cases to validate the developed algorithms utilizing actual subsystem models such as MPS, GNC, and others. One of the principal functions of VMET is to validate the M&FM algorithms and substantiate them with performance baselines for each of the target vehicle subsystems in an independent platform exterior to the flight software test and validation processes. In any software development process there is inherent risk in the interpretation and implementation of concepts from requirements and test cases into flight software compounded with potential human errors throughout the development and regression testing lifecycle. Risk reduction is addressed by the M&FM group but in particular by the Analysis Team working with other organizations such as S&MA, Structures and Environments, GNC, Orion, Crew Office, Flight Operations, and Ground Operations by assessing performance of the M&FM algorithms in terms of their ability to reduce Loss of Mission (LOM) and Loss of Crew (LOC) probabilities. In addition, through state machine and diagnostic modeling, analysis efforts investigate a broader suite of failure effects and associated detection and responses to be tested in VMET to ensure reliable failure detection, and confirm responses do not create additional risks or cause undesired states through interactive dynamic effects with other algorithms and systems. VMET further contributes to risk reduction by prototyping and exercising the M&FM algorithms early in their implementation and without any inherent hindrances such as meeting FSW processor scheduling constraints due to their target platform - the ARINC 6535-partitioned Operating System, resource limitations, and other factors related to integration with other subsystems not directly involved with M&FM such as telemetry packing and processing. The baseline plan for use of VMET encompasses testing the original M&FM algorithms coded in the same C++ language and state machine architectural concepts as that used by FSW. This enables the development of performance standards and test cases to characterize the M&FM algorithms and sets a benchmark from which to measure their effectiveness and performance in the exterior FSW development and test processes. This paper is outlined in a systematic fashion analogous to a lifecycle process flow for engineering development of algorithms into software and testing. Section I describes the NASA SLS M&FM context, presenting the current infrastructure, leading principles, methods, and participants. Section II defines the testing philosophy of the M&FM algorithms as related to VMET followed by section III, which presents the modeling methods of the algorithms to be tested and validated in VMET. Its details are then further presented in section IV followed by Section V presenting integration, test status, and state analysis. Finally, section VI addresses the summary and forward directions followed by the appendices presenting relevant information on terminology and documentation.

Trevino, Luis↗

Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems Regional Studies: West Texas & Northeastern Arizona

The primary objective of this study is to conduct a preliminary dynamic analysis of two realistic hybrid energy systems (HES) including a nuclear reactor as the main baseload heat generator (denoted as nuclear HES or nuclear hybrid energy systems [[NHES]) and to assess the local (e.g., HES owners) and system (e.g., the electric grid) benefits attainable by the application of NHES in scenarios with multiple commodity production and high penetration of renewable energy. It is performed for regional cases not generic examples based on available resources, existing infrastructure, and markets within the selected regions. This study also briefly addresses the computational capabilities developed to conduct such analyses, reviews technical gaps, and suggests some research paths forward.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Manned Mars System Study (MMSS): Mars transportation and facility infrastructure study. Volume 2: Technical report

The Manned Mars System Study (MMSS) was conducted for the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) over the 35 month period between May 15, 1987 and April 30, 1990. During the course of the study, the NASA Office of Exploration (OEXP; Code Z) was created and MSFC was subsequently designated the Transportation Integration Agent (TIA) for support of the OEXP Mission Analysis and Systems Engineering (MASE) team. As a result of this action, modifications to the contract redirected the efforts to be consistent with NASA's overall objectives, including lunar transportation system design. A large number of written submittals were required in order to provide TIA support to MASE. A list summarizing the documents which have been prepared and delivered by Martin Marietta under this contract during the course of this work is presented. In nearly all cases, full sets of view-graphs were also provided to the MSFC COTR, and in several cases magnetic media were provided as well. To incorporate all of these materials (more than 2,000 pages) into the present report would obviously produce an extremely unwieldy and confusing document. Therefore, a summary of key findings are presented in this final report, supplemented by other material produced under this contract but not already available in the widespread literature.

Source record↗

Optimal contracting structure between cellulosic biorefineries and farmers to reduce the impact of biomass supply variation: game theoretic analysis

There is considerable year–to–year variability in the supply of cellulosic biomass used in the production of cellulosic biofuels, yet strategies to mitigate these variations in biofuel development are not well understood. Biorefineries and farmers venturing into the cellulosic biofuel industry will require biomass supply and contracting strategies that can minimize the impact of these large variations. Some studies have proposed biomass pre–treatment and storage to address biomass supply variations. Other studies have used transportation modeling approaches to manage supply variations and select the optimal location of a cellulosic biorefinery. However, storage, pre–treatment, and similar engineering approaches lead to higher costs and have other limitations such as additional infrastructural requirements. There is a gap in understanding how contracting strategies between biorefineries and the biomass suppliers (farmers) can reduce the risks with biomass supply variations. In this study, the contracting structure between biorefineries and biomass suppliers is studied under different market structures for the US Corn Belt. A theoretical framework is then developed to use contracting strategies for mitigating the impact of biomass supply variations. First, the trade–offs between intricately linked components of biomass cost, such as biomass transport, biomass price (incentive) to suppliers, variation in biomass supply, biorefinery size, and alternative feedstock availability are examined. Next, an optimal contracting structure is developed between biorefineries and biomass suppliers using game theoretic analysis. Here, the results show that both the impact of biomass supply variations and the overall biomass cost can be significantly reduced through the use of the optimal contracting strategy between biorefineries and suppliers.

cellulosic biofuel↗

LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 1: Justice as Recognition

The LA100 Equity Strategies project synthesizes community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. Grounded in the analysis of past and ongoing energy inequities and engagement with underserved communities, the project presents community-guided and community-tailored strategies that aim to operationalize recognition and procedural justice. This chapter focuses on recognition justice, identifying and analyzing past and present social, cultural, and institutional barriers to affordable and clean energy for LA communities, as well as disparities in the distribution of energy system burdens and benefits. Acknowledging historical and structural factors behind current energy inequities is a first step in developing energy equity strategies for the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to achieve distributional justice - the just and equitable distribution of energy benefits and burdens in LA's energy transition. Recognition, procedural, and distributional justice are the three tenets of energy justice around which the LA100 Equity Strategies project is organized. In the United States, theory and practice around justice have historically focused on unequal distribution of environmental benefits and burdens. The historical siting of hazardous infrastructure such as power plants and transportation corridors in communities of color and low-income communities has disproportionately concentrated negative environmental impacts in their neighborhoods. Those inequities are reproduced via programs, policies, and other efforts (e.g., zoning and regulations, rebates and incentives, lending, investment, and financing) that directly affect people's lives and livelihoods. In recent decades, energy justice scholars and activists broadened their analysis to examine how environmental inequities intersect with other forms of social difference in the distribution of energy benefits and burdens. This approach investigates how differences in class, race, gender, age, and abilities, among others, intersect to understand the social, cultural, and institutional processes that create and perpetuate energy inequities. The LA100 Equity Strategies project embraces this approach to developing a more just clean energy future for LA. Because recognizing and understanding past and existing inequities is vital to addressing them in ways that ensure an equitable energy transition for all Angelenos, this chapter focuses on identifying and analyzing the challenges and inequities of LA's past and existing energy system, including LADWP programs.

community↗

Automated Cache Performance Analysis And Optimization

While there is no lack of performance counter tools for coarse-grained measurement of cache activity, there is a critical lack of tools for relating data layout to cache behavior to application performance. Generally, any nontrivial optimizations are either not done at all, or are done ”by hand” requiring significant time and expertise. To the best of our knowledge no tool available to users measures the latency of memory reference instructions for particular addresses and makes this information available to users in an easy-to-use and intuitive way. In this project, we worked to enable the Open|SpeedShop performance analysis tool to gather memory reference latency information for specific instructions and memory addresses, and to gather and display this information in an easy-to-use and intuitive way to aid performance analysts in identifying problematic data structures in their codes. This tool was primarily designed for use in the supercomputer domain as well as grid, cluster, cloud-based parallel e-commerce, and engineering systems and middleware. Ultimately, we envision a tool to automate optimization of application cache layout and utilization in the Open|SpeedShop performance analysis tool. To commercialize this software, we worked to develop core capabilities for gathering enhanced memory usage performance data from applications and create and apply novel methods for automatic data structure layout optimizations, tailoring the overall approach to support existing supercomputer and cluster programming models and constraints. In this Phase I project, we focused on infrastructure necessary to gather performance data and present it in an intuitive way to users. With the advent of enhanced Precise Event-Based Sampling (PEBS) counters on recent Intel processor architectures and equivalent technology on AMD processors, we are now in a position to access memory reference information for particular addresses. Prior to the introduction of PEBS counters, cache behavior could only be measured reliably in the aggregate across tens or hundreds of thousands of instructions. With the newest iteration of PEBS technology, cache events can be tied to a tuple of instruction pointer, target address (for both loads and stores), memory hierarchy, and observed latency. With this information we can now begin asking questions regarding the efficiency of not only regions of code, but how these regions interact with particular data structures and how these interactions evolve over time. In the short term, this information will be vital for performance analysts understanding and optimizing the behavior of their codes for the memory hierarchy. In the future, we can begin to ask how data layouts might be changed to improve performance and, for a particular application, what the theoretical optimal performance might be. The overall benefit to be produced by this effort was a commercial quality easy-to- use and scalable performance tool that will allow both beginner and experienced parallel programmers to automatically tune their applications for optimal cache usage. Effective use of such a tool can literally save weeks of performance tuning effort. Easy to use. With the proposed innovations, finding and fixing memory performance issues would be more automated and hide most to all of the performance engineer expertise ”under the hood” of the Open|SpeedShop performance tool. One of the biggest public benefits from the proposed innovations is that it makes performance analysis more usable to a larger group of application developers. Intuitive reporting of results. The Open|SpeedShop performance analysis tool has a rich set of intuitive, yet detailed reports for presenting performance results to application developers. Our goal was to leverage this existing technology to present the results from our memory performance addition to Open|SpeedShop. Suitable for experts as well as novices. Application performance is getting more difficult to measure as the hardware platforms they run on become more complicated. This makes life difficult for the application developer, in that they need to know more about the hardware platform, including the memory system hierarchy, in order to understand the performance of their application. Some application developers are comfortable in that sceario, while others want to do their scientific research and not have to understand all the nuances in the hardware platform they are running their application on. Our proposed innovations were aimed to support both experts and novice performance analysts. Useful in many markets. The enhancement to Open|SpeedShop would appeal to a broader market space, as it will be useful in scientific, commercial, and cloud computing environments. Our goal was to use technology developed initially at the and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory combined with the development and commercial software experience of the Argo Navis Technologies, LLC (ANT) to form a powerful combination to delivery these objectives.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integrated multimodel analysis reveals achievable pathways toward reliable, 100% renewable electricity for Los Angeles

Climate change has prompted many communities to set targets for carbon-free power supplies, but they often lack data-driven strategies to achieve them. We present a comprehensive analysis of an entirely renewable electric power system that can maintain operating reliability and resource adequacy using detailed models of the city of Los Angeles power grid. In consultation with the operating utility, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), and the local community, we develop four supply scenarios across three demand projections to analyze which types of infrastructure and operational changes would achieve reliable electricity at least cost. We find that a reliable, 100%-renewable power system yielding more than $1 billion annually in health and climate co-benefits is achievable. Solar can supply most future energy needs, while combustion turbines that use renewable, storable carbon-neutral fuels are key to maintaining reliability. This study provides a replicable methodology that other jurisdictions globally can follow.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Residential Customer Enrollment in Time-based Rate and Enabling Technology Programs: Smart Grid Investment Grant Consumer Behavior Study Analysis

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Smart Grid Investment Grant (SGIG) program is working with a subset of the 99 SGIG projects undertaking Consumer Behavior Studies (CBS), which examine the response of mass market consumers (i.e., residential and small commercial customers) to time-varying electricity prices (referred to herein as time-based rate programs) in conjunction with the deployment of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) and associated technologies. The effort presents an opportunity to advance the electric industry’s understanding of consumer behavior.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Land-Use Requirements for Solar Power Plants in the United States

This report provides data and analysis of the land use associated with utility-scale ground-mounted solar facilities, defined as installations greater than 1 MW. We begin by discussing standard land-use metrics as established in the life-cycle assessment literature and then discuss their applicability to solar power plants. We present total and direct land-use results for various solar technologies and system configurations, on both a capacity and an electricity-generation basis. The total area corresponds to all land enclosed by the site boundary. The direct area comprises land directly occupied by solar arrays, access roads, substations, service buildings, and other infrastructure. As of the third quarter of 2012, the solar projects we analyze represent 72% of installed and under-construction utility-scale PV and CSP capacity in the United States.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A multi-scale calibration approach for process-oriented aggregated building energy demand models

Long-term energy planning relies largely on projections of future energy demand and hourly load profiles. Aggregate building models are increasingly being utilized to characterize the sensitivity of current and future building stocks to changes in climate, population, and building technology on city-to-regional-to-national scales. Due to challenges in the availability of data, those analyses have been limited to projection of energy demand at a single scale, usually state or country, while long-term planning power system models and production cost models might operate at different spatial scales such as energy regions which are focused on ensuring adequate generation infrastructure. In this work, we propose and evaluate a novel method to calibrate an aggregate building energy demand model (PNNL’s BEND model) against the best available data at the spatial scale of balancing authorities. This approach extends previous work on aggregated building energy demand by facilitating analysis of building energy demand across scales, in particular policy and operational decision-making scales. We show that the bias-corrected model estimates building electric loads reasonably well compared with estimates from a statistical model, but has the additional feature of flexibility across spatial scales. While the calibration approach is presently U.S.-centric and associated with U.S. energy regions, it can be extrapolated to other worldwide regions with similar scale challenges between policy and operational implementation decision making. We discuss the significant challenges involved in formulating and calibrating a complex physical model based on simulations of roughly 100,000 individual buildings against available aggregate regional electric load data and highlight areas for potential future work and improved data collection.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Novel functional and distributed approaches to data analysis available in ROOT

The bright future of particle physics at the Energy and Intensity frontiers poses exciting challenges to the scientific software community. The traditional strategies for processing and analyzing data are evolving in order to (i) offer higher-level programming model approaches and (ii) exploit parallelism to cope with the ever increasing complexity and size of the datasets. This contribution describes how the ROOT framework, a cornerstone of software stacks dedicated to particle physics, is preparing to provide adequate solutions for the analysis of large amount of scientific data on parallel architectures. The functional approach to parallel data analysis provided with the ROOT TDataFrame interface is then characterized. The design choices behind this new interface are described also comparing with other widely adopted tools such as Pandas and Apache Spark. The programming model is illustrated highlighting the reduction of boilerplate code, composability of the actions and data transformations as well as the capabilities of dealing with different data sources such as ROOT, JSON, CSV or databases. Details are given about how the functional approach allows transparent implicit parallelization of the chain of operations specified by the user. The progress done in the field of distributed analysis is examined. In particular, the power of the integration of ROOT with Apache Spark via the PyROOT interface is shown. In addition, the building blocks for the expression of parallelism in ROOT are briefly characterized together with the structural changes applied in the building and testing infrastructure which were necessary to put them in production.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Statistical Analysis of Inter-Area Oscillations in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection: A 2017-2023 Perspective

Recent advancements and the accumulation of high-resolution, long-term phasor measurement unit (PMU) data have provided detailed insights into inter-area oscillations in power grids. This study conducts a comprehensive statistical analysis of inter-area oscillations within the United States Eastern Interconnection from 2017 to 2023. Utilizing data captured by the advanced wide-area Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye), this investigation examines the occurrence patterns, dominant frequencies, damping ratios, and excitation mechanisms of these oscillations. Our analysis sheds light on the evolving statistical behaviors of inter-area oscillations, offering updated and critical information for grid operators and planners. The insights gained from this study can be instrumental in enhancing the operational resilience of the power network and guiding strategic developments in grid infrastructure to accommodate future challenges. Additionally, the study discusses emerging challenges associated with the modernization of the power grid, including increased renewable penetration, dynamic load variability, and cyber-physical vulnerabilities that complicate oscillation monitoring and control.

Inter-area oscillations↗