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NASA NTRS1988

Numerical investigations in three-dimensional internal flows

An investigation into the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was performed to examine the expected heat transfer rates that will occur within the NASA-Ames 100 megawatt arc heater nozzle. This nozzle was tentatively designed and identified to provide research for a directly connected combustion experiment specifically related to the National Aerospace Plane Program (NASP) aircraft, and is expected to simulate the flow field entering the combustor section. It was found that extremely fine grids, that is very small mesh spacing near the wall, are required to accurately model the heat transfer process and, in fact, must contain a point within the laminar sublayer if results are to be taken directly from a numerical simulation code. In the present study, an alternative to this very fine mesh and its attendant increase in computational time was invoked and is based on a wall-function method. It was shown that solutions could be obtained that give accurate indications of surface heat transfer rate throughout the nozzle in approximately 1/100 of the computer time required to do the simulation directly without the use of the wall-function implementation. Finally, a maximum heating value in the throat region of the proposed slit nozzle for the 100 megawatt arc heater was shown to be approximately 6 MW per square meter.

Rose, William C.↗

DOE OSTI2019

High-Charge Injector for on-Axis Injection Into A High-Performance Storage Ring Light Source

Next-generation, high-performance storage ring light sources based on multibend achromat optics will require on-axis injection because of the extremely small dynamic aperture. Injectors will need to supply full-current bunch replacement in the ring with high single-bunch charge for swap-out. For upgrades of existing light sources, such as the Advanced Photon Source Upgrade (APS-U), it is economical to retain the existing injector infrastructure and make appropriate improvements. The challenges to these improvements include achieving high single-bunch charge in the presence of instabilities, beam loading, charge stability and reliability. In this paper, we discuss the rationale for the injector upgrades chosen for APS-U, as well as backup and potential alternate schemes. To date, we have achieved single-bunch charge from the injectors that doubles the original design value, and have a goal to achieve about three times the original design value.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

NASA NTRS1995

Numerical Simulation of Flow in a Whirling Annular Seal and Comparison with Experiments

The turbulent flow field in a simulated annular seal with a large clearance/radius ratio (0.015) and a whirling rotor was simulated using an advanced 3D CFD code SCISEAL. A circular whirl orbit with synchronous whirl was imposed on the rotor center. The flow field was rendered quasi-steady by making a transformation to a totaling frame. Standard k-epsilon model with wall functions was used to treat the turbulence. Experimentally measured values of flow parameters were used to specify the seal inlet and exit boundary conditions. The computed flow-field in terms of the velocity and pressure is compared with the experimental measurements inside the seal. The agreement between the numerical results and experimental data with correction is fair to good. The capability of current advanced CFD methodology to analyze this complex flow field is demonstrated. The methodology can also be extended to other whirl frequencies. Half- (or sub-) synchronous (fluid film unstable motion) and synchronous (rotor centrifugal force unbalance) whirls are the most unstable whirl modes in turbomachinery seals, and the flow code capability of simulating the flows in steady as well as whirling seals will prove to be extremely useful in the design, analyses, and performance predictions of annular as well as other types of seals.

Athavale, M. M.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Optimization of Mission Enabling Broadband Lyman Ultraviolet Series to Infrared Aluminum Lithium Fluoride Reflectors

The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) concept NASA flagship mission aims extend the ultraviolet (UV) observation range and sensitivity capabilities of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) with respective goals of reaching photons down to 100 nm and containing an ultraviolet multi-object spectrograph with sensitivity improved 30-100 times. Adding the sensitivity capabilities near the Lyman series spectral range of ~100-121.6 nm reduces the reliance of redshift for key diagnostic ion lines such as O VI (103.2 nm), and heavily ionized gases of Ne VIII (77.5 nm) and MgX (62.5 nm). Clean and unoxidized aluminum (Al) reflectors provide optimal efficiency over a broadband down to the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wavelength of ~83 nm. To prevent oxidation and maintain high spectral efficiency down to ~100 nm, the Al reflector is conventionally overcoated with a thin lithium fluoride (LiF) layer. We investigate the optimization of the deposition of the Al+LiF coating material composition to attain high spectral efficiency broadband reflectors down to 100 nm and enable the scientific goals of HWO. Lithium hexafluoroaluminate (Li3AlF6) is investigated as a different composition form of LiF to overcoat Al. The spectral efficiency and durability of the reflectors is evaluated. We will demonstrate the use of Li3AlF6 as an overcoat to protect aluminum yields ultra-high efficiency at the Hydrogen Lyman-alpha (HLyα, 121.6 nm) line with experimental reflectance values peaking up to 99%.

optical coatings↗

NASA NTRS2024

Optimization of Mission Enabling Broadband Lyman Ultraviolet Series to Infrared Aluminum Lithium Fluoride Reflectors

optical coatings↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quasi‐Steady State Supersaturation: Do High Values Derived From ESCAPE Represent Real High Supersaturations and the Potential for Condensational Invigoration?

Deep convective clouds were intensively sampled during the Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE) with coordinated flights of the NRC Convair-580 and SPEC Learjet. A total of 219 updraft core segments were sampled over coastal Texas and Louisiana under diverse meteorological conditions. Median updraft properties included widths of ∼1 km, velocities of 4.8 m s −1 , droplet number concentrations of ∼400 cm −3 , and liquid water contents of 0.9 g m −3 . The limitations of using the quasi-steady state approximation to derive supersaturations were explored. Supersaturation (S QSS ) estimated from in situ observations under a quasi-steady state assumption averaged 0.4% but occasionally exceeded 2%, with values >1% (high supersaturations) identified as statistical outliers. Two case studies illustrated the conditions linked to high supersaturations. In a storm over the Gulf, median core S QSS reached 2.46% in the developing stage compared to 2.17% in the mature stage under similar thermodynamic conditions. In a storm over coastal Louisiana, S QSS peaked near 11% within a 13.7-m s −1 updraft, accompanied by predominantly supercooled liquid droplets at −13°C and exceptionally low diameter concentrations of 0.29 mm cm −3 . Bootstrap analysis of all sampled cores showed that high supersaturations are most probable in cold and mixed-phase regimes with moderate to strong updrafts and are strongly influenced by vertical velocity and droplet number concentrations. In conclusion, while extreme supersaturations (∼10%) were rare, their occurrence underscores the need for targeted multiplatform observations to resolve their spatiotemporal variability and assess their potential role in deep convective invigoration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of daily gridded climate products using in situ FLUXNET data and tree growth modeling

Gridded climate data products have facilitated research in climate and ecology by providing meteorological data continuously across large spatial scales. However, the sensitivity of scientific outcomes to dataset choice remains poorly understood, and evaluation using station-based records can favor datasets built heavily on weather stations. Here, we evaluate seven high-resolution daily gridded datasets covering the contiguous United States using independent meteorology from the FLUXNET2015 dataset, with a focus on the implications of dataset choice for process-based tree growth modeling. We find that gridded products tend to capture temperature accurately while consistently overestimating the magnitude and frequency of precipitation and its extremes. Moreover, datasets vary in how they define a ‘day,’ which significantly affects temporal alignment with FLUXNET2015 observations. Despite differences among the datasets, the interannual variability in tree ring simulations is insensitive to dataset choice, likely because daily-scale biases are averaged out through accumulated growth across several months. However, inaccuracies in temperature and precipitation can significantly bias modeled xylem cell production, with systematically higher annual precipitation in the gridded datasets leading to greater xylem production compared to simulations using in situ data. Our results suggest that model applications, especially those that integrate to time scales longer than one day, are likely insensitive to climate dataset choice, but applications that are sensitive to daily climate variations or to absolute climate values need to carefully consider biases in gridded climate products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Global Characteristics of Observable Foreshocks for Large Earthquakes

Abstract Foreshocks are the only currently widely identified precursory seismic behavior, yet their utility and even identifiability are problematic, in part because of extreme variation in behavior. Here, we establish some global trends that help identify the expected frequency of foreshocks as well the type of earthquake most prone to foreshocks. We establish these tendencies using the global earthquake catalog of the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center with a completeness level of magnitude 5 and mainshocks with Mw≥7.0. Foreshocks are identified using three clustering algorithms to address the challenge of distinguishing foreshocks from background activity. The methods give a range of 15%–43% of large mainshocks having at least one foreshock but a narrower range of 13%–26% having at least one foreshock with magnitude within two units of the mainshock magnitude. These observed global foreshock rates are similar to regional values for a completeness level of magnitude 3 using the same detection conditions. The foreshock sequences have distinctive characteristics with the global composite population b-values being lower for foreshocks than for aftershocks, an attribute that is also manifested in synthetic catalogs computed by epidemic-type aftershock sequences, which intrinsically involves only cascading processes. Focal mechanism similarity of foreshocks relative to mainshocks is more pronounced than for aftershocks. Despite these distinguishing characteristics of foreshock sequences, the conditions that promote high foreshock productivity are similar to those that promote high aftershock productivity. For instance, a modestly higher percentage of interplate mainshocks have foreshocks than intraplate mainshocks, and reverse faulting events slightly more commonly have foreshocks than normal or strike-slip-faulting mainshocks. The western circum-Pacific is prone to having slightly more foreshock activity than the eastern circum-Pacific.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

NASA NTRS1973

Evaluation of commercial utility of ERTS-A imagery in structural reconnaissance for minerals and petroleum

Five areas in North America (North Slope-Alaska, Superior Province-Canada, Williston Basin-Montana, Colorado and New Mexico-West Texas) are being studied for discernibility of geological evidence on ERTS-1 imagery, Evidence mapped is compared with known mineral/hydrocarbon accumulations to determine the value of the imagery in commercial exploration programs. Evaluation has proceeded in the New Mexico-West Texas area while awaiting imagery in the other areas. To date, results have been better than expected. Clearly discernible structural lineaments in New Mexico-West Texas are evident on the photographs. Comparison of this evidence with known major mining localities in New Mexico indicates a clear pattern of coincidence between the lineaments and mining localities. In West Texas, lineament and geomorphological evidence obtainable from the photographs define the petroleum-productive Central Basin Platform. Based on evaluation results in the New Mexico-West Texas area and on cursory results in the other four areas of North America, ERTS-1 imagery will be extremely valuable in defining the regional and local structure in any commercial exploration program.

Saunders, D. F.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Conductivity of PEO/PLA Doped Liquid Crystal Ionomer Solid Polymer Electrolyte in Mesomorphic Range

A novel polyethylene oxide (PEO)/polylactic acid (PLA) solid polymer electrolyte (SPE) doped with Liquid crystal ionomer (LCI) was prepared by automatic scraping membrane technology and the liquid crystal property of LCI was proposed as an effective strategy to improve the conductivity. The highest conductivity of the SPE with 0.5 wt% LCI achieve a value of 2.19 × 10{sup −4} S/cm at 17 °C which is approximately four orders of magnitude higher than that of the original PEO solid polymer electrolyte, conductivity at room temperature is 10{sup −7}–10{sup −8} S/cm. This is because the crystallinity is reduced by 25.3% compared to the pure PEO host. Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and polarizing microscope (POM) characterize the structure and properties of LCI. Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) shows that the conductivity of the polymer electrolyte with 0.5 wt% LCI increased abruptly at 35 °C as the temperature is higher than T{sub g} of LCI, reaching 6.37 × 10{sup −4} S/cm which is 191% higher than that at 17 °C. There ionic conductivity has been improved extremely by continuous channel for efficient ion transportation, especially at the microtherm. And this change is greater at the elevated temperature regions, in line with the VTF equation. In summary, LCI’s liquid crystal performance can be used as an effective strategy to improve the low temperature conductivity of SPE.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Do Arctic mixed-phase clouds sometimes dissipate due to insufficient aerosol? Evidence from comparisons between observations and idealized simulations

Abstract. Mixed-phase clouds are ubiquitous in the Arctic. These clouds can persist for days and dissipate in a matter of hours. It is sometimes unknown what causes this sudden dissipation, but aerosol–cloud interactions may be involved. Arctic aerosol concentrations can be low enough to affect cloud formation and structure, and it has been hypothesized that, in some instances, concentrations can drop below some critical value needed to maintain a cloud. We use observations from a Department of Energy ARM site on the northern slope of Alaska at Oliktok Point (OLI), the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) field campaign in the high Arctic Ocean, and the Integrated Characterisation of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit – Aerosol Cloud Experiment (ICECAPS-ACE) project at the NSF (National Science Foundation) Summit Station in Greenland (SMT) to identify one case per site where Arctic boundary layer clouds dissipated coincidentally with a decrease in surface aerosol concentrations. These cases are used to initialize idealized large eddy simulations (LESs) in which aerosol concentrations are held constant until, at a specified time, all aerosols are removed instantaneously – effectively creating an extreme case of aerosol-limited dissipation which represents the fastest a cloud could possibly dissipate via this process. These LESs are compared against the observed data to determine whether cases could, potentially, be dissipating due to insufficient aerosol. The OLI case's observed liquid water path (LWP) dissipated faster than its simulation, indicating that other processes are likely the primary drivers of the dissipation. The ASCOS and SMT observed LWP dissipated at similar rates to their respective simulations, suggesting that aerosol-limited dissipation may be occurring in these instances. We also find that the microphysical response to this extreme aerosol forcing depends greatly on the specific case being simulated. Cases with drizzling liquid layers are simulated to dissipate by accelerating precipitation when aerosol is removed while the case with a non-drizzling liquid layer dissipates quickly, possibly glaciating via the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process. The non-drizzling case is also more sensitive to ice-nucleating particle (INP) concentrations than the drizzling cases. Overall, the simulations suggest that aerosol-limited cloud dissipation in the Arctic is plausible and that there are at least two microphysical pathways by which aerosol-limited dissipation can occur.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1995

Enhancement of thickness uniformity of thin films grown by pulsed laser deposition

A peculiarity of the pulsed laser deposition technique of thin-film growth which limits its applicability is the very rapid drop of resulting film thickness as a function of distance from the deposition axis. This is due to the narrow forward peaking of the emission plume characteristic of the laser ablation process. The plume is usually modeled by a cos(sup n) theta function with n greater, and in some cases, much higher, than 1. Based on this behavior, a method is presented to substantially enhance coverage uniformity in substrate zones of the order of the target-substrate distance h, and to within a specified thickness tolerance. Essentially, target irradiation is caused to form an annular emission source instead of the usual spot. By calculating the resulting thickness profiles, an optimum radius s is found for the annular source, corresponding to a given power in the emission characteristic and a given value of h. The radius of this annulus scales with h. Calculated numerical results for optimal s/h ratios corresponding to a wide range of values for n are provided for the case of +/- 1% tolerance in deviation from the thickness at deposition axis. Manners of producing annular illumination of the target by means of conic optics are presented for the case of a laser beam with radially symmetric profile. The region of uniform coverage at the substrate can be further augmented by extension of the method to multiple concentric annular sources. By using a conic optic of novel design, it is shown also how a single-laser beam can be focused onto a target in the required manner. Applicability of the method would be limited in practice by the available laser power. On the other hand, the effective emitting area can be large, which favors extremely high growth rates, and since growth can occur uniformly over the whole substrate for each laser pulse, single-shot depositions with substantial thicknesses are possible. In addition, the simultaneity of growth over the complete substrate is desirable when monitoring the growth in situ.

Fernandez, Felix E.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Premixed flames subjected to extreme turbulence: Some questions and recent answers

It has been predicted that several changes will occur when premixed flames are subjected to the extreme levels of turbulence that can be found in practical combustors. Our report is a review of recent experimental and DNS results that have been obtained for the range of extreme turbulence, and it includes a discussion of cases that agree or disagree with predictions. “Extreme turbulence” is defined to correspond to a turbulent Reynolds number (Re Τ , based on integral scale) that exceeds 2800 or a turbulent Karlovitz number that exceeds 100, for reasons that are discussed in Section 2.1. Several data bases are described that include measurements made at Lund University, the University of Sydney, the University of Michigan and the U.S. Air Force Research Lab. The data bases also include DNS results from Sandia National Laboratory, the University of New South Wales, Newcastle University, the California Institute of Technology and the University of Cambridge. Several major observations are: (a) DNS now can be achieved for a realistic geometry (of the Lund University jet burner) even for extreme turbulence levels, (b) state relations (conditional mean profiles) from DNS and experiments do tend to agree with laminar profiles, at least for methane-air and hydrogen-air reactants that are not preheated, and (c) regime boundaries have been measured and they do not agree with predicted boundaries. Results indicate that the range of conditions for which flamelet models should be valid is larger than what was previously believed. Additional parameters have been shown to be important; for example, broken reactions occur if the “back-support” is insufficient due to the entrainment of cold gas into the product gas. Turbulent burning velocity measurements have been extended from the previous normalized turbulence levels (u’/S L ) of 24 up to a value of 163. Turbulent burning velocities no longer follow the trend predicted by Shchelkin but they tend to follow the trend predicted by Damköhler. The boundary where flamelet broadening begins was measured to occur at Re Taylor = 13.8, which corresponds to an integral scale Reynolds number (Re T ) of 2800. This measured regime boundary can be explained by the idea that flame structure is altered when the turbulent diffusivity at the Taylor scale exceeds a critical value, rather than the idea that changes occur when Kolmogorov eddies just fit inside a flamelet. A roadmap to extend DNS to complex chemistry and to higher Reynolds numbers is discussed. Exascale computers, machine learning, adaptive mesh refinement and embedded DNS show promise. Some advances are reviewed that have extended the use of line and planar PLIF and CARS laser diagnostics to studies that consider complex hydrocarbon fuels and harsh environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predicting bulge to total luminosity ratio of galaxies using deep learning

ABSTRACT We present a deep learning model to predict the r-band bulge-to-total luminosity ratio (B/T) of nearby galaxies using their multiband JPEG images alone. Our Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) based regression model is trained on a large sample of galaxies with reliable decomposition into the bulge and disc components. The existing approaches to estimate the B/T ratio use galaxy light-profile modelling to find the best fit. This method is computationally expensive, prohibitively so for large samples of galaxies, and requires a significant amount of human intervention. Machine learning models have the potential to overcome these shortcomings. In our CNN model, for a test set of 20 000 galaxies, 85.7 per cent of the predicted B/T values have absolute error (AE) less than 0.1. We see further improvement to 87.5 per cent if, while testing, we only consider brighter galaxies (with r-band apparent magnitude <17) with no bright neighbours. Our model estimates the B/T ratio for the 20 000 test galaxies in less than a minute. This is a significant improvement in inference time from the conventional fitting pipelines, which manage around 2–3 estimates per minute. Thus, the proposed machine learning approach could potentially save a tremendous amount of time, effort, and computational resources while predicting B/T reliably, particularly in the era of next-generation sky surveys such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Euclid sky survey which will produce extremely large samples of galaxies.

Grover, Harsh (ORCID:0000000321338142)↗

NASA NTRS1991

An Evaluation of the Iosipescu Specimen for Composite Materials Shear Property Measurement

A detailed evaluation of the suitability of the Iosipescu specimen tested in the modified Wyoming fixture is presented. An experimental investigation using conventional strain gage instrumentation and moire interferometry is performed. A finite element analysis of the Iosipescu shear test for unidirectional and cross-ply composites is used to assess the uniformity of the shear stress field in the vicinity of the notch, and demonstrate the effect of the nonuniform stress field upon the strain gage measurements used for the determination of composite shear moduli. From the test results for graphite-epoxy laminates, it is shown that the proximity of the load introduction point to the test section greatly influences the individual gage readings for certain fiber orientations but the effect upon shear modulus measurement is relatively unimportant. A numerical study of the load contact effect shows the sensitivity of some fiber configurations to the specimen/fixture contact mechanism and may account for the variations in the measured shear moduli. A comparison of the strain gage readings from one surface of a specimen with corresponding data from moire interferometry on the opposite face documented an extreme sensitivity of some fiber orientations to eccentric loading which induced twisting and yielded spurious shear stress-strain curves. In the numerical analysis, it is shown that the Iosipescu specimens for different fiber orientations have to be modeled differently in order to closely approximate the true loading conditions. Correction factors are needed to allow for the nonuniformity of the strain field and the use of the average shear stress in the shear modulus evaluation. The correction factors, which are determined for the region occupied by the strain gage rosette, are found to be dependent upon the material orthotropic ratio and the finite element models. Based upon the experimental and numerical results, recommendations for improving the reliability and accuracy of the shear modulus values are made, and the implications for shear strength measurement discussed. Further application of the Iosipescu shear test to woven fabric composites is presented. The limitations of the traditional strain gage instrumentation on the satin weave and high tow plain weave fabrics is discussed. Test results of a epoxy based aluminum particulate composite is also presented. A modification of the Iosipescu specimen is proposed and investigated experimentally and numerically. It is shown that the proposed new specimen design provides a more uniform shear stress field in the test section and greatly reduces the normal and shear stress concentrations in the vicinity of the notches. While the fabrication and the material cost of the proposed specimen is tremendously reduced, it is shown the accuracy of the shear modulus measurement is not sacrificed.

Ho, Henjen↗

NASA NTRS2006

When Will the Antarctic Ozone Hole Recover?

The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early spring (late September - early October). Antarctic ozone values have been monitored since 1979 using satellite observations from the TOMS instrument. The severity of the hole has been assessed from TOMS using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average area coverage during this September-October period. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen (chlorine and bromine) catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations in the collar of the polar lower stratospheric vortex. In this talk, I will show the relationships of halogens and temperature to both the size and depth of the hole. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. The ozone hole will begin to show first signs of recovery in about 2023, and the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels in approximately 2070. This 2070 recovery is 20 years later than recent projections. I will also discuss current assessments of mid-latitude ozone recovery.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Prediction of Seasonal Climate-induced Variations in Global Food Production

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are therefore exposed to variations in yields, production, and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of major food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We assessed the reliability of hindcasts (i.e., retrospective forecasts for the past) of crop yield loss relative to the previous year for two lead times. Pre-season yield predictions employ climatic forecasts and have lead times of approximately 3 to 5 months for providing information regarding variations in yields for the coming cropping season. Within-season yield predictions use climatic forecasts with lead times of 1 to 3 months. Pre-season predictions can be of value to national governments and commercial concerns, complemented by subsequent updates from within-season predictions. The latter incorporate information on the most recent climatic data for the upcoming period of reproductive growth. In addition to such predictions, hindcasts using observations from satellites were performed to demonstrate the upper limit of the reliability of crop forecasting.

variations↗

NASA NTRS2015

Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.

Baker, Noel C.↗