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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Neutral gas temperature estimates and metastable resonance energy transfer for argon-nitrogen discharges

Rovibrational spectroscopy band fitting of the nitrogen (N{sub 2}) second positive system is a technique used to estimate the neutral gas temperature of N{sub 2} discharges, or atomic discharges with trace amounts of a N{sub 2} added. For mixtures involving argon and N{sub 2}, resonant energy transfer between argon metastable atoms (Ar*) and N{sub 2} molecules may affect gas temperature estimates made using the second positive system. The effect of Ar* resonance energy transfer is investigated here by analyzing neutral gas temperatures of argon-N{sub 2} mixtures, for N{sub 2} percentages from 1% to 100%. Neutral gas temperature estimates are higher than expected for mixtures involving greater than 5% N{sub 2} addition, but are reasonable for argon with less than 5% N{sub 2} addition when compared with an analytic model for ion-neutral charge exchange collisional heating. Additional spatiotemporal investigations into neutral gas temperature estimates with 10% N{sub 2} addition demonstrate that although absolute temperature values may be affected by Ar* resonant energy transfer, spatiotemporal trends may still be used to accurately diagnose the discharge.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

A novel technique for real-time estimation of edge pedestal density gradients via reflectometer time delay data

A new model-based technique for fast estimation of the pedestal electron density gradient has been developed. The technique uses ordinary mode polarization profile reflectometer time delay data and does not require direct profile inversion. Because of its simple data processing, the technique can be readily implemented via a Field-Programmable Gate Array, so as to provide a real-time density gradient estimate, suitable for use in plasma control systems such as envisioned for ITER, and possibly for DIII-D and Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak. The method is based on a simple edge plasma model with a linear pedestal density gradient and low scrape-off-layer density. By measuring reflectometer time delays for three adjacent frequencies, the pedestal density gradient can be estimated analytically via the new approach. Using existing DIII-D profile reflectometer data, the estimated density gradients obtained from the new technique are found to be in good agreement with the actual density gradients for a number of dynamic DIII-D plasma conditions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2018

A tesselation-based model for intensity estimation and laser plasma interactions calculations in three dimensions

Here, a three-dimensional laser propagation model for computation of laser-plasma interactions is presented. It is focused on indirect drive geometries in inertial confinement fusion and formulated for use at large temporal and spatial scales. A modified tesselation-based estimator and a relaxation scheme are used to estimate the intensity distribution in plasma from geometrical optics rays. Comparisons with reference solutions show that this approach is well-suited to reproduce realistic 3D intensity field distributions of beams smoothed by phase plates. It is shown that the method requires a reduced number of rays compared to traditional rigid-scale intensity estimation. Using this field estimator, we have implemented laser refraction, inverse-bremsstrahlung absorption, and steady-state crossed-beam energy transfer with a linear kinetic model in the numerical code VAMPIRE. Probe beam amplification and laser spot shapes are compared with experimental results and pf3d paraxial simulations. These results are promising for the efficient and accurate computation of laser intensity distributions in holhraums, which is of importance for determining the capsule implosion shape and risks of laser-plasma instabilities such as hot electron generation and backscatter in multi-beam configurations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatially and temporally resolved plasma parameter estimations of laser heated MagLIF relevant gas pipes at NIF

The ability to control laser pre-heat is an integral part of the inertial confinement fusion concept known as Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion. This process is studied at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) where 4 of the 192 laser beams are propagated through a 1-cm long gas cell where they deposit >20 kJ of energy into the gaseous fuel via inverse bremsstrahlung absorption. This process ionizes the gas, producing a plasma that follows behind the laser front and expands over the radius of the cell. Emission from this plasma, as viewed by a gated x-ray detector, can be used to build spatially and temporally resolved estimations of the pre-heat plasma's density and temperature profiles. This can then be used to estimate the plasma pressure, internal energy, and radiation losses. Estimations show the evolution of the plasma in magnetized and unmagnetized gas cells filled with ambient temperature neopentane (C5H12) +1% Ar, as well as unmagnetized cryogenically cooled (32 K) deuterium +1% Ne filled targets. This analysis shows the effects of initial gas-fill density, composition, and axial magnetization on the time-dependent plasma parameters. Previously, these parameters at the NIF had not been experimentally characterized, and these estimations provided a potential new means of testing radiation magneto-hydrodynamic predictive capability models. Results in unmagnetized targets have strong agreement with simulations. However, in targets with a 19 T applied axial magnetic field, this method yields electron temperatures up to 100% hotter than those predicted by HYDRA codes.

Bremsstrahlung↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accuracy of the duration estimates of ultrashort laser pulses using a single-shot second-order intensity autocorrelator

The accuracy of estimating the duration of single-cycle laser pulses with centre wavelengths of 910 and 780 nm is analysed using a single-shot second-order intensity autocorrelator. It is shown that estimates of the single-cycle pulse duration with an error of less than 5 % require the use of KDP crystals with a thickness of no more than 10 μm for the second harmonic generation. At the same time, to estimate the duration of a transform-limited pulse containing ten optical cycles, the crystal thickness can be up to 1 mm. In this case, at an optimum angle of convergence of the first-harmonic beams, the duration estimation error is less than 2 %. (paper)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

Metalearners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning

There is growing interest in estimating and analyzing heterogeneous treatment effects in experimental and observational studies. We describe a number of metaalgorithms that can take advantage of any supervised learning or regression method in machine learning and statistics to estimate the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) function. Metaalgorithms build on base algorithms—such as random forests (RFs), Bayesian additive regression trees (BARTs), or neural networks—to estimate the CATE, a function that the base algorithms are not designed to estimate directly. We introduce a metaalgorithm, the X-learner, that is provably efficient when the number of units in one treatment group is much larger than in the other and can exploit structural properties of the CATE function. For example, if the CATE function is linear and the response functions in treatment and control are Lipschitz-continuous, the X-learner can still achieve the parametric rate under regularity conditions. We then introduce versions of the X-learner that use RF and BART as base learners. In extensive simulation studies, the X-learner performs favorably, although none of the metalearners is uniformly the best. In two persuasion field experiments from political science, we demonstrate how our X-learner can be used to target treatment regimes and to shed light on underlying mechanisms. A software package is provided that implements our methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian characterization of uncertainties surrounding fluvial flood hazard estimates

Fluvial floods drive severe risk to riverine communities. There is strong evidence of increasing flood hazards in many regions around the world. The choice of methods and assumptions used in flood hazard estimates can impact the design of risk management strategies. In this study, we characterize the expected flood hazards conditioned on the uncertain model structures, model parameters, and prior distributions of the parameters. We construct a Bayesian framework for river stage return level estimation using a nonstationary statistical model that relies exclusively on the Indian Ocean Dipole Index. We show that ignoring uncertainties can lead to biased estimation of expected flood hazards. We find that the considered model parametric uncertainty is more influential than model structures and model priors. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty in extreme flood stage estimates, and are of practical use for informing water infrastructure designs in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Estimating Cohort Survival through Tributaries for Salmonid Populations with Variable Ages at Migration

Abstract Survival of juvenile anadromous Pacific salmonids from their earliest age of seaward movement (“out-migration”) through the tributaries that connect their rearing grounds to larger-order rivers (“cohort survival”) is an important yet often unmonitored factor in the complex life history of these species. Populations with variable age at out-migration (e.g., steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss) or multiple juvenile rearing strategies (e.g., Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha) raise particular challenges in survival monitoring. A multiple-state release–recapture model is presented to estimate cohort survival for salmonid species with variable age at out-migration and demonstrated in two case studies. Annual releases of fish tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags from the same brood year (cohort) and their detections by instream PIT-tag detection arrays in tributaries and at hydroelectric dams are used to estimate survival through tributaries and the age composition of juvenile migrants reaching downstream sites. The 2010 cohort of Chinook Salmon from the Chiwawa River in Washington State had estimated survival of 0.59 to the middle Wenatchee River array in Tumwater Dam Reservoir (river distance of 30 km) and 0.12 to McNary Dam (364 km) on the Columbia River. The age composition shifted from 60.1% subyearlings at the Wenatchee River array to 100% yearlings at McNary Dam, reflecting the use of the Wenatchee River as a nonnatal rearing area, whereas McNary Dam is in the migratory corridor. The 2010 cohort of steelhead from the Twisp River in Washington State had estimated survival from the yearling stage of 0.30 to Rocky Reach Dam (146 km from the Twisp River mouth) on the Columbia River and 0.17 to McNary Dam (439 km). The low survival to the Columbia River resulted from both mortality and adoption of a resident life history and reflects the diverse population structure in the Twisp River. Received February 4, 2015; accepted June 11, 2015

Buchanan, Rebecca A.↗
DOE OSTI2017

A novel approach to estimate emissions from large transportation networks: Hierarchical clustering-based link-driving-schedules for EPA-MOVES using dynamic time warping measures

We present that EPA-MOVES (Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator) is often integrated with traffic simulators to assess emission levels of large-scale urban networks with signalized intersections. High variations in speed profiles exist in the context of congested urban networks with signalized intersections. The traditional average-speed-based emission estimation technique with EPA-MOVES provides faster execution while underestimates the emissions in most cases because of ignoring the speed variation at congested networks with signalized intersections. In contrast, the atomic second-by-second speed profile (i.e., the trajectory of each vehicle)-based technique provides accurate emissions at the cost of excessive computational power and time. We addressed this issue by developing a novel method to determine the link-driving-schedules (LDSs) for the EPA-MOVES tool. Our research developed a hierarchical clustering technique with dynamic time warping similarity measures (HC-DTW) to find the LDS for EPA-MOVES that is capable of producing emission estimates better than the average-speed-based technique with execution time faster than the atomic speed profile approach. We applied the HC-DTW on a sample data from a signalized corridor and found that HC-DTW can significantly reduce computational time without compromising the accuracy. The developed technique in this research can substantially contribute to the EPA-MOVES-based emission estimation process for large-scale urban transportation network by reducing the computational time with reasonably accurate estimates. This method is highly appropriate for transportation networks with higher variation in speed such as signalized intersections. Lastly, experimental results show error difference ranging from 2% to 8% for most pollutants except PM 10 .

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Proof of the Asymptotic Variance of Path Length Estimators for Single-Collision Monte Carlo Source Iteration in the Thick Diffusion Limit

Here, we prove a theorem relating the variance of path length estimators for single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration to a parameter that becomes infinitesimally small in an important physical regime arising in radiative transfer. In our usage, “single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration” refers to Monte Carlo Boltzmann transport methods in which each Monte Carlo particle history includes no more than a single collision, and the physics of multiple scattering is modeled by lagging the scattering source term and iterating until this term converges. Our theorem can be used to construct variance reduction techniques which improve the order of the estimator variance. This enables calculations that would otherwise require impractically large sample sizes to achieve practical estimator uncertainties. We believe this is the first postulation of a theorem relating estimator variance to a limiting case parameter for single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration, and the first proof of such a theorem. We illustrate the theorem’s value with an example in which the authors of a transport method used the theorem to design a variance reduction technique that improved the uncertainty of their solution by a factor of about 500 for a proxy problem from radiative transfer that contains both optically-thick and optically-thin material.

Mathematics and Computing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating internal moisture generation rates in recently constructed, occupied homes in the southeastern United States

Internal moisture generation (IMG), or moisture generated by building occupants via activities such as respiration, cooking, bathing, and cleaning, is a critical input required for design, analysis, and simulation of building enclosure and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. Based on previously published values, ASHRAE Standard 160-2021 provides guidance for estimating IMG rates for moisture control design analysis, which is based on occupied home datasets collected in the 1980s and 1990s. Residential energy use simulation software also utilizes estimates for IMG for energy rating, energy analysis, and code compliance calculations, as specified in ANSI/RESNET/ICC Standard 301. Data quantifying IMG rates in newer homes is useful in determining the continued relevance of current design and simulation guidance, and whether the guidance represents conditions found in new housing stock. ASHRAE Research Project 1844, conducted by the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC), a research institute of the University of Central Florida, estimated IMG rates in newer occupied homes built since 2013 in the southeastern US using a moisture balance model approach. Furthermore, the project obtained occupied home data in cooperation with a US Department of Energy Building America research project to characterize indoor air quality (IAQ) in newer US homes, along with presence, functionality, and occupant use of control measures. Full-scale laboratory homes operating with known IMG rates were used to validate a moisture balance model and quantify the accuracy of estimates obtained when the model is applied to data from occupied homes with unknown IMG rates.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2013

ESTIMATING PHOTOMETRIC REDSHIFTS OF QUASARS VIA THE k-NEAREST NEIGHBOR APPROACH BASED ON LARGE SURVEY DATABASES

We apply one of the lazy learning methods, the k-nearest neighbor (kNN) algorithm, to estimate the photometric redshifts of quasars based on various data sets from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), the UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey (UKIDSS), and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE; the SDSS sample, the SDSS-UKIDSS sample, the SDSS-WISE sample, and the SDSS-UKIDSS-WISE sample). The influence of the k value and different input patterns on the performance of kNN is discussed. kNN performs best when k is different with a special input pattern for a special data set. The best result belongs to the SDSS-UKIDSS-WISE sample. The experimental results generally show that the more information from more bands, the better performance of photometric redshift estimation with kNN. The results also demonstrate that kNN using multiband data can effectively solve the catastrophic failure of photometric redshift estimation, which is met by many machine learning methods. Compared with the performance of various other methods of estimating the photometric redshifts of quasars, kNN based on KD-Tree shows superiority, exhibiting the best accuracy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2011

CROSS-CORRELATIONS OF THE Ly{alpha} FOREST WITH WEAK-LENSING CONVERGENCE. ANALYTICAL ESTIMATES OF SIGNAL-TO-NOISE RATIO AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NEUTRINO MASS AND DARK ENERGY

We expect a detectable correlation between two seemingly unrelated quantities: the four-point function of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and the amplitude of flux decrements in quasar (QSO) spectra. The amplitude of CMB convergence in a given direction measures the projected surface density of matter. Measurements of QSO flux decrements trace the small-scale distribution of gas along a given line of sight. While the cross-correlation between these two measurements is small for a single line of sight, upcoming large surveys should enable its detection. This paper presents analytical estimates for the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) for measurements of the cross-correlation between the flux decrement and the convergence, <{delta}F{kappa}>, and for measurements of the cross-correlation between the variance in flux decrement and the convergence, <({delta}F){sup 2}{kappa}>. For the ongoing BOSS (SDSS-III) and Planck surveys, we estimate an S/N of 30 and 9.6 for these two correlations. For the proposed BigBOSS and ACTPOL surveys, we estimate an S/N of 130 and 50, respectively. Since <({delta}F){sup 2}{kappa}>{proportional_to}{sigma}{sub 8}{sup 4}, the amplitude of these cross-correlations can potentially be used to measure the amplitude of {sigma}{sub 8} at z {approx} 2%-2.5% with BOSS and Planck and even better with future data sets. These measurements have the potential to test alternative theories for dark energy and to constrain the mass of the neutrino. The large potential signal estimated in our analytical calculations motivates tests with nonlinear hydrodynamic simulations and analyses of upcoming data sets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

TESTING DISTANCE ESTIMATORS WITH THE FUNDAMENTAL MANIFOLD

We demonstrate how the Fundamental Manifold (FM) can be used to cross-calibrate distance estimators even when those 'standard candles' are not found in the same galaxy. Such an approach greatly increases the number of distance measurements that can be utilized to check for systematic distance errors and the types of estimators that can be compared. Here we compare distances obtained using Type Ia supernova (SN Ia), Cepheids, surface brightness fluctuations, the luminosity of the tip of the red giant branch, circumnuclear masers, eclipsing binaries, RR Lyrae stars, and the planetary nebulae luminosity functions. We find no significant discrepancies (differences are <2{sigma}) between distance methods, although differences at the {approx}10% level cannot yet be ruled out. The potential exists for significant refinement because the data used here are heterogeneous B-band magnitudes that will soon be supplanted by homogeneous, near-infrared magnitudes. We illustrate the use of FM distances to (1) revisit the question of the metallicity sensitivity of various estimators, confirming the dependence of SN Ia distances on host galaxy metallicity, and (2) provide an alternative calibration of H{sub 0} that replaces the classical ladder approach in the use of extragalactic distance estimators with one that utilizes data over a wide range of distances simultaneously.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

CORONAL MASS EJECTION MASS, ENERGY, AND FORCE ESTIMATES USING STEREO

Understanding coronal mass ejection (CME) energetics and dynamics has been a long-standing problem, and although previous observational estimates have been made, such studies have been hindered by large uncertainties in CME mass. Here, the two vantage points of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) COR1 and COR2 coronagraphs were used to accurately estimate the mass of the 2008 December 12 CME. Acceleration estimates derived from the position of the CME front in three dimensions were combined with the mass estimates to calculate the magnitude of the kinetic energy and driving force at different stages of the CME evolution. The CME asymptotically approaches a mass of 3.4 {+-} 1.0 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 15} g beyond {approx}10 R{sub Sun }. The kinetic energy shows an initial rise toward 6.3 {+-} 3.7 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 29} erg at {approx}3 R{sub Sun }, beyond which it rises steadily to 4.2 {+-} 2.5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 30} erg at {approx}18 R{sub Sun }. The dynamics are described by an early phase of strong acceleration, dominated by a force of peak magnitude of 3.4 {+-} 2.2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 14} N at {approx}3 R{sub Sun }, after which a force of 3.8 {+-} 5.4 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 13} N takes effect between {approx}7 and 18 R{sub Sun }. These results are consistent with magnetic (Lorentz) forces acting at heliocentric distances of {approx}<7 R{sub Sun }, while solar wind drag forces dominate at larger distances ({approx}>7 R{sub Sun }).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

ON THE LINEAR TERM CORRECTION FOR NEEDLET/WAVELET NON-GAUSSIANITY ESTIMATORS

We derive the linear correction term for needlet and wavelet estimators of the bispectrum and the nonlinearity parameter f{sub NL} on cosmic microwave background radiation data. We show that on masked WMAP-like data with anisotropic noise, the error bars improve by 10%-20% and almost reach the optimal error bars obtained with the bispectrum estimator also known as 'KSW'. In the limit of full-sky and isotropic noise, this term vanishes. We apply needlet and wavelet estimators to the WMAP 7-year data and obtain our best estimate f{sub NL} = 37.5 {+-} 21.8 (68% CL).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

BROAD-LINE REGION PHYSICAL CONDITIONS IN EXTREME POPULATION A QUASARS: A METHOD TO ESTIMATE CENTRAL BLACK HOLE MASS AT HIGH REDSHIFT

We describe a method for estimating physical conditions in the broad-line region (BLR) for a significant subsample of Seyfert 1 nuclei and quasars. Several diagnostic ratios based on intermediate (Al III {lambda}1860, Si III] {lambda}1892) and high (C IV {lambda}1549, Si IV {lambda}1397) ionization lines in the UV spectra of quasars are used to constrain density, ionization, and metallicity of the emitting gas. We apply the method to two extreme Population A quasars-the prototypical NLSy1 I Zw 1 and higher z source SDSS J120144.36+011611.6. Under assumptions of spherical symmetry and pure photoionization we infer BLR physical conditions: low ionization (ionization parameter <10{sup -2}), high density (10{sup 12}-10{sup 13} cm{sup -3}), and significant metal enrichment. Ionization parameter and density can be derived independently for each source with an uncertainty that is less than {+-}0.3 dex. We use the product of density and ionization parameter to estimate the BLR radius and derive an estimation of the virial black hole mass (M{sub BH}). Estimates of M{sub BH} based on the 'photoionization' analysis described in this paper are probably more accurate than those derived from the mass-luminosity correlations widely employed to compute black hole masses for high-redshift quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

OPTIMAL CORRELATION ESTIMATORS FOR QUANTIZED SIGNALS

Using a maximum-likelihood criterion, we derive optimal correlation strategies for signals with and without digitization. We assume that the signals are drawn from zero-mean Gaussian distributions, as is expected in radio-astronomical applications, and we present correlation estimators both with and without a priori knowledge of the signal variances. We demonstrate that traditional estimators of correlation, which rely on averaging products, exhibit large and paradoxical noise when the correlation is strong. However, we also show that these estimators are fully optimal in the limit of vanishing correlation. We calculate the bias and noise in each of these estimators and discuss their suitability for implementation in modern digital correlators.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗