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Our changing planet: The FY 1993 US global change research program. A supplement to the US President's fiscal year 1993 budget

An improved predictive understanding of the integrated Earth system, including human interactions, will provide direct benefits by anticipating and planning for possible impacts on commerce, agriculture, energy, resource utilization, human safety, and environmental quality. The central goal of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is to help establish the scientific understanding and the basis for national and international policymaking related to natural and human-induced changes in the global Earth system. This will be accomplished through: (1) establishing an integrated, comprehensive, long-term program of documenting the Earth system on a global scale; (2) conducting a program of focused studies to improve our understanding of the physical, geological, chemical, biological, and social processes that influence the Earth system processes; and (3) developing integrated conceptual and predictive Earth system models.

Source record↗

The environmental influence on tropical cyclone precipitation

The intensity, spatial, and temporal changes in precipitation were examined in three North Atlantic hurricanes during 1989 (Dean, Gabrielle, and Hugo) using precipitation estimates made from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) measurements. In addition, analyses from a barotropic hurricane forecast model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model were used to examine the relationship between the evolution of the precipitation in these tropical cyclones and external forcing. The external forcing parameters examined were (1) mean climatological sea surface temperatures, (2) vertical wind shear, (3) environmental tropospheric water vapor flux, and (4) upper-tropospheric eddy relative angular momentum flux convergence. The analyses revealed that (1) the SSM/I precipitation estimates were able to delineate and monitor convective ring cycles similar to those observed with land-based and aircraft radar and in situ measurements; (2) tropical cyclone intensification was observed to occur when these convective rings propagated into the inner core of these systems (within 111 km of the center) and when the precipitation rates increased; (3) tropical cyclone weakening was observed to occur when these inner-core convective rings dissipated; (4) the inward propagation of the outer convective rings coincided with the dissipation of the inner convective rings when they came within 55 km of each other; (5) in regions with the combined warm sea surface temperatures (above 26 C) and low vertical wind shear (less than 5 m/s), convective rings outside the region of strong lower-tropospheric inertial stability could be initiated by strong surges of tropospheric moisture, while convective rings inside the region of strong lower-tropospheric inertial stability could be enhanced by upper-tropospheric eddy relative angular momentum flux convergence.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗

Substantial Diel Changes of Cloud Adjustments to Aerosols in Ship‐Tracks

Clouds adjust their albedo, amount and liquid water path to anthropogenic aerosols, and produce a climate forcing. Such cloud adjustments are complex functions of both environmental conditions and interaction time. However, direct observations of temporal changes in cloud adjustments are limited. Here, we develop a method to show observational evidence of substantial diel changes in cloud adjustments within ship-tracks. Polluted clouds experiencing extended nighttime exposure exhibit higher increases in cloud fraction while liquid-water path adjustments follow a non-monotonic evolution. The higher cloud fraction increase persists through daytime. Such diel variations likely stem from diel changes in solar heating and background cloud precipitation, and are important because nighttime changes persist and affect solar radiation during the day. Accounting for diel variations produces a stronger aerosol forcing, by −0.1 ∼−0.4 W⁢m −2 . Our approach reveals how the temporal evolution of cloud adjustments can have important implications for aerosol-cloud interactions.

Yuan, Tianle [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GS↗

Underground Test Area (UGTA) Sampling Plan for Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, Revision 2

The purpose of this groundwater sampling plan (referred to herein as “the Plan”) is to describe the approach for collecting and analyzing groundwater samples to meet the objectives of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Environmental Management (EM) Nevada Program’s Underground Test Area (UGTA) Activity. The Plan is focused on the Central and Western Pahute Mesa corrective action units (CAUs 101 and 102), which are currently in the Corrective Action Decision Document (CADD)/Corrective Action Plan (CAP) stage of the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO) UGTA Strategy. The remaining UGTA CAUs are in the final stage of the UGTA strategy (Closure Report [CR] stage), and monitoring requirements for these CAUs are described in the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order Nevada National Security Site Use Restriction Management Plan (DOE/EMNV, 2024a). The Plan supersedes the Nevada National Security Site Integrated Groundwater Sampling Plan and its ensuing Record of Technical Change (ROTC) (DOE/EMNV, 2019b).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Industrial Carbon Capture from a Cement Facility Using the Cryocap™ FG Process

The objective of the project was to execute and complete front-end engineering and design (FEED) studies for commercial-scale, carbon capture projects that separate 95% of the total CO 2 emissions at an industrial facility, producing at least 100,000 metric tonnes/year of CO 2 for sequestration. The industrial facility selected is the Holcim (US) Ste. Genevieve cement manufacturing facility (the largest single kiln line in the world), while the carbon capture system selected is Pressure Swing Adsorption system (PSA) assisted Cryocap™ technology developed by Air Liquide. The industrial host site emits approximately 3 million tonnes CO 2 /year based on plant data from 2020-2022. The captured CO 2 will meet the requirements of transport (Pipeline Grade) and geological storage, and the geological storage facilities within 80 miles of the CO 2 source. The impact of the project on Environmental Justice and the regional economy was also analyzed.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Industrial Carbon Capture from a Cement Facility Using the Cryocap FG Process (FE0032136)

The project's objective was to execute and complete front-end engineering and design (FEED) studies for commercial-scale, carbon capture projects that separate 95% of the total CO2 emissions at an industrial facility, producing at least 100,000 metric tonnes/year of CO2 for sequestration. The industrial facility selected is the Holcim (US) Ste. Genevieve cement manufacturing facility (the largest single kiln line in the world), while the carbon capture system selected is Pressure Swing Adsorption system (PSA) assisted Cryocap™ technology developed by Air Liquide. The impact of the project on Environmental Justice and the regional economy was also analyzed.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Industrial Carbon Capture from a Cement Facility Using the CryocapTM FG Process (2023 FECM/NETL Conference Proceeding)

The project's objective was to execute and complete front-end engineering and design (FEED) studies for commercial-scale, carbon capture projects that separate 95% of the total CO2 emissions at an industrial facility, producing at least 100,000 metric tonnes/year of CO2 for sequestration. The industrial facility selected is the Holcim (US) Ste. Genevieve cement manufacturing facility (the largest single kiln line in the world), while the carbon capture system selected is Pressure Swing Adsorption system (PSA) assisted Cryocap™ technology developed by Air Liquide. The impact of the project on Environmental Justice and the regional economy was also analyzed.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Milwaukee Urban Development: Assessing Climate Vulnerability through the InVEST Model on Urban Cooling in Milwaukee Using NASA Earth Observations

Milwaukee’s neighborhoods experience increased social, health, and ecological stress from the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect due to changing land cover and climate. Extreme urban heat disproportionately affects Black and Latine communities due to systematic disinvestment in infrastructure and lack of resources to cope with heat. Our partner, Groundwork Milwaukee, supports Environmental Justice organizing around urban heat in historically redlined neighborhoods. This study explores heat mitigation in Metcalfe Park, one such neighborhood that is a focus area for our partner, as well as across the city and county of Milwaukee. Our team utilized the Natural Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Model for urban cooling to model heat mitigation scenarios for Milwaukee in support of Groundwork’s climate resilience and heat mitigation work. The data inputs used in our analysis were Land Use Land Cover (LULC), evapotranspiration, and surface temperature derived from NASA Earth observations, as well as a biophysical table containing land cover class attributes. We developed a heat vulnerability index from American Community Survey datasets and satellite imagery to identify areas in most need of heat mitigation intervention. We found that central and northwest city areas, home to a majority of Milwaukee’s Black and Latine population, have low heat mitigation and high vulnerability to heat impacts compared to the rest of the county. We also found that tree canopy increases across scales are effective in promoting heat mitigation. Our results and end products will bolster the efforts of our partners to make decisions on heat mitigation strategies, build community resilience, and reverse legacies of environmental racism in the face of extreme heat and climate change.

urban heat island↗

Vermont Wildland Fires: Investigating the Role of Antecedent Conditions and Recent Environmental Trends in Exacerbating Fire Risk and Potential in Vermont

Under a changing climate, increases in dry conditions and extreme heat events are projected to exacerbate wildfire risk in the northeastern U.S. In recent years, Vermont has observed higher annual temperatures, more frequent heatwaves, increased annual precipitation, extreme flood events, and decreased snowfall. The mechanisms through which environmental factors contribute to increased fire risk in humid environments, such as Vermont, are poorly understood. The team partnered with the National Weather Service, the Vermont Division of Forests, and the University of Vermont to investigate phenological trends and antecedent conditions influencing wildland fire risk. For the phenological analysis, from 2001 to 2023, vegetation data, phenological dates, and snow water equivalent (SWE) values were accessed from Landsat 5Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9OLI-2, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS), respectively. For the antecedent condition analysis, from 2008 to 2023, soil moisture, Environmental Stress Index, wind speed, minimum relative humidity, and daily precipitation data were obtained from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), SERVIR, gridMET Wind, gridMET Humidity, and NClimGrid, respectively. The study found that green-up dates over the study period remain relatively stable, while snowmelt dates appear increasingly variable. Minimum relative humidity was the most significant environmental variable correlated with wildfire risk in Vermont. Results from this study will inform the National Weather Service's preparation of fire forecasts before prescribed burns and support community outreach by the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources.

Wildland Fire↗

Global trend of methane abatement inventions and widening mismatch with methane emissions

Substantially reducing methane emissions is the fastest way to repress near-term warming and is an essential prerequisite for reaching the 1.5 °C target. However, knowledge about the global invention trend, sectoral and national distribution and international diffusion of methane-targeted abatement technologies (MTATs) remains limited. On the basis of patent data, we identify more than 175,000 MTAT inventions applied between 1990 and 2019 by 133 countries or dependent territories. Our results revealed that after sustained growth of more than fourfold, the number of global high-quality MTAT inventions declined by 3.5% annually from 2010 to 2019. The sectoral and national-level distributions of MTAT inventions and methane emissions are strongly mismatched. Additionally, the international diffusion of MTATs is 11.1% lower than that of overall climate change mitigation technologies and most transfers occur between developed countries or flow to China, South Korea and Brazil; however, other developing countries and the least developed countries are rarely involved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thunderstorm Activity Under Intermediate and Extreme Climate Change Scenarios

Assessing how increasing greenhouse gas concentrations may modify regional climates is an ongoing challenge. Relatively little work has examined how climate change may influence processes related to regional thunderstorm activity. This is important to consider in areas where thunderstorms are important for maintaining regional hydroclimates. Here, this study focuses on three convection-allowing climate simulations—namely, a retrospective simulation (1990–2005) and two possible climate change scenarios (2085–2100)—with domains encompassing the conterminous United States. Regional and seasonal variability is noted in the response of thunderstorm activity as measured by thresholds in simulated radar reflectivity factor in the two climate change scenarios. A decrease in thunderstorm activity is projected for the Southern Plains, whereas the Southeast and Midwest experience an increase in thunderstorm activity. An examination of environmental parameters related to thunderstorm activity reveals an overall increase in convective instability but spatially varying changes in convective inhibition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Toward Accurate Thermal Modeling of Phase Change Material Based Photonic Devices

Reconfigurable or programmable photonic devices are rapidly growing and have become an integral part of many optical systems. The ability to selectively modulate electromagnetic waves through electrical stimuli is crucial in the advancement of a variety of applications from data communication and computing devices to environmental science and space explorations. Chalcogenide-based phase change materials (PCMs) are one of the most promising material candidates for reconfigurable photonics due to their large optical contrast between their different solid-state structural phases. Although significant efforts have been devoted to accurate simulation of PCM-based devices, in this paper, we highlight three important aspects which have often evaded prior models yet having significant impacts on the thermal and phase transition behavior of these devices: the enthalpy of fusion, the heat capacity change upon glass transition, as well as the thermal conductivity of liquid-phase PCMs. We further investigated the important topic of switching energy scaling in PCM devices, which also helps explain why the three above-mentioned effects have long been overlooked in electronic PCM memories but only become important in photonics. Our findings offer insight to facilitate accurate modeling of PCM-based photonic devices and can inform the development of more efficient reconfigurable optics.

Phase change materials↗

Analytical simulation of meander morphology from equilibrium to long-term evolution: Impacts of channel geometry and vegetation-induced coarsening

This study introduces an innovative approach to modeling meandering river morphology, integrating and investigating the effects of geometric characteristics and vegetation-induced channel coarsening. The developed comprehensive framework combines several advanced techniques: Genetic Programming for refining the scour factor of transverse bed slope, a Leaf Area Index (LAI)-enhanced analytical model for quantifying vegetative flow resistance, and an upstream-weighted moving average method for efficient approximation of the convolution integral in meander migration calculations. The model is validated against both an idealized Kinoshita meander and a natural bend of the Tumen River (China) in equilibrium, demonstrating its robustness across diverse scales and conditions. The model's ability to simulate the long-term evolution, including cutoff events, provides valuable insight for river management strategies. The current findings demonstrate that channel geometry, particularly width-to-depth ratio, plays a dominant role in meander evolution, with wider channels prone to more complex and rapid morphological changes. Vegetation effects are most pronounced in channels with moderate width-to-depth ratios, where they can significantly influence migration rates and bed topography. A combination of channel widening and deepening, coupled with strategic vegetation management, can effectively enhance navigability while maintaining channel stability in the studied Tumen River reach. Sensitivity analyses highlight the complex interplay between hydraulic conditions, sediment characteristics, and vegetation in shaping river morphology. This research advances understanding of the multifaceted nature of meandering river systems and offers practical tools for informed decision-making in river engineering and environmental management, particularly in the context of climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures on fluvial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FTIR characterization of thermally cycled PMR-15 composites

Chemical characterization results are presented for a variety of PMR-15/graphite composites, differentiated according to prepreg types and cure cycles, which were subjected to 1000 thermal cycles between 0 and 450 F. Fourier transform IR spectroscopy was used in conjunction with diffuse reflectance sampling to examine whether changes in the matrix resin chemistry due to environmental exposure may have contributed to microcracking. Analysis based on compound spectra revealed behavior associated with the oxidation of methylene groups to carbonyl groups on the composite surface; evidence of crosslinking also emerged, although the two phenomena do not appear to be related.

Young, Philip R.↗

Heterogeneous climate change impacts on electricity demand in world cities circa mid-century

Rising ambient temperatures due to climate change will increase urban populations’ exposures to extreme heat. During hot hours, a key protective adaptation is increased air conditioning and associated consumption of electricity for cooling. But during cold hours, milder temperatures have the offsetting effect of reducing consumption of electricity and other fuels for heating. We elucidate the net consequences of these opposing effects in 36 cities in different world regions. We couple reduced-form statistical models of cities’ hourly responses of electric load to temperature with temporally downscaled projections of temperatures simulated by 21 global climate models (GCMs), projecting the effects of warming on the demand for electricity circa 2050. Cities' responses, temperature exposures and impacts are heterogeneous, with changes in total annual consumption ranging from –2.7 to 5.7%, and peak power demand increasing by as much as 9.5% at the multi-GCM median. The largest increases are concentrated in more economically developed mid-latitude cities, with less developed urban areas in the tropics exhibiting relatively small changes. The results highlight the important role of the structure of electricity demand: large temperature increases in tropical cities are offset by their inelastic responses, which can be attributed to lower air-conditioning penetration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Synthesis and Review: African Environmental Processes and Water-Cycle Dynamics

Africa's vast landmass harbors a variety of physical processes that affect the environment and the water cycle. This focus issue on the "African Environmental Processes and Water-Cycle Dynamics" contains eight articles that address these phenomena from different but complementary perspectives. Fires used for agricultural and related purposes play a major role in land-cover change, surface albedo modifications, and smoke emission; all of which affect the environment and the water cycle in different ways. However, emissions of aerosols and trace gases are not restricted to fires, but also emanate from other natural and human activities. The African water cycle undergoes significant perturbations that are attributable to several factors, including the aforesaid environmental processes. These changes in the water cycle have produced severe drought and flooding events in recent decades that affect societal wellbeing across sub-Saharan Africa. The combined effects of the environmental processes and water-cycle dynamics affect and are affected by climate variability and can be propagated beyond the continent. Future studies should utilize the wealth of observations and modeling tools that are constantly improving to clearly elucidate the interrelationships between all of these phenomena for the benefit of society.

Water cycle dynamics↗