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DOE OSTI2023

Reducing the Flow Maldistribution in Heat Exchangers through a Novel Polymer Manifold: Numerical Evaluation

The maldistribution of working fluid is one of the issues in heat exchangers that causes a reduction in performance of not only the heat exchanger but also the entire HVAC system. One of the methods to reduce such maldistribution is to improve manifold design to evenly distribute the flow. In the present work, an advanced maldistribution reduction manifold, which was based on a preliminary maldistribution reduction manifold, was designed to further improve the flow distribution in the heat exchanger. In the design, spiral baffles are used to create vortices in the tubes to regulate the flow in each tube. The design also keeps the tubes away from the manifold inlet to avoid direct flow from the inlet. Due to the complexity, the design of the advanced maldistribution reduction manifold is for AM only, which cannot be fabricated by traditional manufacturing. To evaluate the design, a computational fluid dynamic model is developed to study flow distribution in heat exchanger manifolds. The simulation results reveal that the relative standard deviation of the tubes in the advanced maldistribution reduction design is half of the preliminary maldistribution reduction design and about 1/20 of the reference design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Light Element Abundances and Multiple Populations in M53

We present results from a study of 94 red giant stars in the globular cluster M53. We use low-resolution spectra to measure the strength of CN and CH features at ∼3800 and 4300 Å, respectively. The strengths of these features are used to classify stars into a CN-enhanced and CN-normal population and to measure C and N abundances in all 94 stars. We find the red giant branch stars to be evenly split between the two populations identified, and observe the presence of CN-enhanced stars on the asymptotic giant branch. In addition, we identify five CH star candidates based on the strength of their CN and CH band features, and the presence of a P-branch in their CH band. We compare our identification of multiple populations to those based on the Na–O anticorrelation and pseudo-color indices in Hubble Space Telescope UV photometry, and find general agreement between all three methods. Our large sample size also allows us to study the radial distribution of each population, and we find that the CN-enhanced population is more centrally concentrated. We use our C and N measurements to compare the evolutionary changes in these elements as a function of magnitude between the two populations, and show that both populations experience similar evolutionary changes to the surface abundances of C and N. Finally, we calculate C+N+O abundances for each population and compare them to similar measurements made in M10; we find that in both clusters, CN-enhanced stars have a slightly enhanced C+N+O (Δ(C+N+O) ∼ 0.2 dex).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Large-Scale Inference of Multivariate Regression for Heavy-Tailed and Asymmetric Data

Large-scale multivariate regression is a fundamental statistical tool with a wide range of applications. Here, this study considers the problem of simultaneously testing a large number of general linear hypotheses, encompassing covariate-effect analysis, analysis of variance, and model comparisons. The challenge that accompanies a large number of tests is the ubiquitous presence of heavy-tailed and/or highly skewed measurement noise, which is the main reason for the failure of conventional least squares-based methods. For large-scale multivariate regression, we develop a set of robust inference methods to explore data features such as heavy tailedness and skewness, which are not visible to least squares methods. The new testing procedure is based on the data-adaptive Huber regression and a new covariance estimator of regression estimates. Under mild conditions, we show that our methods produce consistent estimates of the false discovery proportion. Extensive numerical experiments and an empirical study on quantitative linguistics demonstrate the advantage of the proposed method over many state-of-the-art methods when the data are generated from heavy-tailed and/or skewed distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Transactive control and coordination framework and associated toolkit functions

Disclosed herein are representative embodiments of methods, apparatus, and systems for facilitating operation and control of a resource distribution system (such as a power grid). For example, embodiments of the disclosed technology can be used to improve the resiliency of a power grid and to allow for improved consumption of renewable resources. Further, certain implementations facilitate a degree of decentralized operations not available elsewhere.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transactive control framework and toolkit functions

Hammerstrom, Donald J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Risk-Informed Condition Evaluation of Solar-centered Energy Generation and Distribution Networks through Bayesian Learning and Inference

We develop a methodology based on Bayesian inference over Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) to understand and quantify risk in solar-centered grids using targeted measurements and learned system behavior. Being non-prescriptive but, rather, able to infer system behavior and, ultimately, address risk queries from data, our machine learning-type paradigm is tailored for diverse topologies and threat scenarios often associated with distributed energy generation and photovoltaic distributed energy resources (PV-DERs) in particular. We describe algorithmic processes for: (i) learning the structure of PGMs that result from attack-prone PV-DER-proliferated distribution systems, (ii) quantifying cause-effect relationships, and (iii) evaluating risk queries based on diverse evidence. The contributions are illustrated on a residential grid subject to output impairment attacks on its PV-DER infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Subhourly Clipping Correction Model Comparison

This work will compare the Allen method and Walker method of accounting for subhourly inverter clipping power losses in hourly PV performance models. The Allen method uses a matrix lookup based on DNI clearness and clipping potential to assign a clipping correction loss at each simulation timestep. The Walker method models the PV DC power input to the inverter as a distribution over the hourly timestep and uses integration over the timestep to determine the amount of clipping that occurs within the timestep. Both these models have been recently implemented in the System Advisor Model's (SAM) open-source code, and will be applied to hourly SURFRAD datasets to analyze the subhourly clipping loss predicted by each model for different system designs and inverter loading conditions. Both models will be compared to "true" 1-minute SURFRAD data simulations to see their accuracy against more accurate 1-minute clipping correction loss predictions. This model comparisons will be investigated in more detail at the PVSC conference in Seattle, Washington June 2024.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,MATHEMATICS A↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling and control of cascaded bridgeless multilevel rectifier under unbalanced load conditions

The goal of this project is to model and control a novel unidirectional cascaded multilevel bridgeless rectifier as an active front end in medium and high voltage applications. This topology has many advantages over a conventional cascaded H-bridge rectifier, such as lower implementation cost, higher reliability, and greater flexibility with similar power quality. The complete design process of the proposed converter is developed step by step in order to meet all the desired objectives. The steady-state mathematical model is used to develop a method for the voltage balancing of dc cells. Power factor analysis is discussed to mathematically derive requirements for the number of partially controlled and fully controlled H-bridges in the proposed H-bridge converter. Power loss, efficiency, and cost comparison studies between the traditional cascaded H-Bridge converter and the proposed bridgeless converter demonstrate the advantages. After exploring various well-established control methods, a novel control strategy is proposed to achieve dc voltage balancing, fast and robust grid synchronization, power factor correction, and elimination of zero crossing current distortion under both balanced and unbalanced load conditions. The converter can also be used for reactive power compensation in a grid tied power system if a sufficient number of fully controlled H-bridge modules are included. Processor-In-the-Loop (PIL) simulation has been the utilized to validate the performance of discrete control structure. Simulation and experimental results validate the models and control method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

The cosmic waltz of Coma Berenices and Latyshev 2 (Group X)

Context. Open clusters (OCs) are fundamental benchmarks where theories of star formation and stellar evolution can be tested and validated. Coma Berenices (Coma Ber) and Latyshev 2 (Group X) are the second and third OCs closest to the Sun, making them excellent targets to search for low-mass stars and ultra-cool dwarfs. In addition, this pair will experience a flyby in 10–16 Myr, making it a benchmark to test pair interactions of OCs. Aims. We aim to analyse the membership, luminosity, mass, phase-space (i.e. positions and velocities), and energy distributions for Coma Ber and Latyshev 2 and test the hypothesis of the mixing of their populations at the encounter time. Methods. We developed a new phase-space membership methodology and applied it to Gaia data. With the recovered members, we inferred the phase-space, luminosity, and mass distributions using publicly available Bayesian inference codes. Then, with a publicly available orbit integration code and members’ positions and velocities, we integrated their orbits 20 Myr into the future. Results. In Coma Ber, we identified 302 candidate members distributed in the core and tidal tails. The tails are dynamically cold and asymmetrically populated. The stellar system called Group X is made of two structures: the disrupted OC Latyshev 2 (186 candidate members) and a loose stellar association called Mecayotl 1 (146 candidate members), and both of them will fly by Coma Ber in 11.3 ± 0.5 Myr and 14.0 ± 0.6 Myr, respectively, and each other in 8.1 ± 1.3 Myr. Conclusions. We study the dynamical properties of the core and tails of Coma Ber and also confirm the existence of the OC Latyshev 2 and its neighbour stellar association Mecayotl 1. Although these three systems will experience encounters, we find no evidence supporting the mixing of their populations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A unified neural-network framework for nucleon imaging from numerical simulations of QCD

Parton distributions encode the momentum-space structure and, in their generalizations, the spatial tomography of quarks and gluons inside hadrons, the building blocks of visible matter. We present a unified neural-network approach that learns these distributions directly from matrix elements calculated via numerical simulations of quantum chromodynamics (QCD) on the lattice by fitting two complementary inputs simultaneously: data matched to physical quantities via known momentum-space and coordinate-space formalisms. Utilizing data from both methods stabilizes the extraction and mitigates biases that can arise when either is used alone. We validate the method on controlled mock data and apply it to lattice-QCD matrix elements to extract parton distribution functions (PDFs). We show benefits of such an approach for determining the physical quantities. We further extend the framework to zero-skewness generalized parton distributions and demonstrate nucleon tomography within the same neural-network parameterization. Our results provide an adaptable and systematically improvable approach for extracting partonic distributions from Euclidean correlators. It can incorporate polarization, additional channels, and future experimental constraints from current and future facilities, such as the Electron-Ion Collider.

Hadronic Spectroscopy↗

DOE OSTI2024

Real-Space Pseudopotential Method for the Calculation of Third-Row Elements X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopic Signatures

X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) is a powerful characterization technique that unveils subtle chemical environment differences via core– electron binding energy (CEBE) analysis. We extend the development of realspace pseudopotential methods to calculating 1s, 2s, and 2p 3/2 CEBEs of third-row elements (S, P, and Si) within the framework of Kohn–Sham density-functional theory (KS-DFT). The new approach systematically prevents variational collapse and simplifies core-excited orbital selection within dense energy level distributions. However, careful error cancellation analysis is required to achieve accuracy comparable to all-electron methods and experiments. Combined with real-space KS-DFT implementation, this development enables large-scale simulations with both Dirichlet boundary conditions and periodic boundary conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Branching Dueling Q-Network Based Online Scheduling of a Microgrid With Distributed Energy Storage Systems

This letter investigates a Branching Dueling Q-Network (BDQ) based online operation strategy for a microgrid with distributed battery energy storage systems (BESSs) operating under uncertainties. Additionally, the developed deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based microgrid online optimization strategy can achieve a linear increase in the number of neural network outputs with the number of distributed BESSs, which overcomes the curse of dimensionality caused by the charge and discharge decisions of multiple BESSs. Numerical simulations validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process for Distribution System Voltage Probabilistic Estimation with PVs

The increasing penetration of behind-the-meter PVs causes challenges to maintain voltage security due to the lack of distribution system visibility. This paper proposes a nonlinear autoregressive Gaussian process (NARGP) approach to fuse limited number of SCADA/AMI data together with historical pseudo measurements for distribution node voltage probabilistic estimation. The high-fidelity SCADA data are fused with the low-fidelity AMI and pseudo measurements by the autoregressive algorithm embedded in the Gaussian process. This allows us to use multi-fidelity data to achieve entire distribution system voltage visibility. Numerical results carried out on the IEEE 123node system demonstrate that the NARGP method is able to obtain high accuracy in estimating bus voltage and quantifying estimation uncertainties as compared to other approaches.

distribution system estimation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting solid state material platforms for quantum technologies

Semiconductor materials provide a compelling platform for quantum technologies (QT). However, identifying promising material hosts among the plethora of candidates is a major challenge. Therefore, we have developed a framework for the automated discovery of semiconductor platforms for QT using material informatics and machine learning methods. Different approaches were implemented to label data for training the supervised machine learning (ML) algorithms logistic regression, decision trees, random forests and gradient boosting. We find that an empirical approach relying exclusively on findings from the literature yields a clear separation between predicted suitable and unsuitable candidates. In contrast to expectations from the literature focusing on band gap and ionic character as important properties for QT compatibility, the ML methods highlight features related to symmetry and crystal structure, including bond length, orientation and radial distribution, as influential when predicting a material as suitable for QT.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Analytic insights into nonlocal energy transport: Steady state Fokker Planck theory in arbitrary Z plasmas

The generation of energetic electrons in laser fusion in an important issue. The electrons may either arise from a laser plasma instability, or from the uncoupled high temperature tail of a Maxwellian distribution. To study these in a laser fusion context, it is important to find a method accurate enough to be useful, and simple enough to be incorporated into a radiation hydrodynamics numerical simulation, the main workhorse for studying the laser fusion target. That is why analytic insights become important, they allow one to simplify the Fokker Planck theory so that a solution of it can be incorporated into a radiation hydrodynamic simulation. This work develops and analyzes a steady state Fokker Planck theory for plasmas of arbitrary Z. It develops a method of solving the simplified Fokker Planck method with a technique called sparse eigenfunction analysis. As a result, this method appears to work reasonably well when compared to the experimental results from the Rochester/NIF on plastic spherical targets with and without a silicon layer.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Study of the normalized transverse momentum distribution of W bosons produced in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 1.96 TeV

We present a study of the normalized transverse momentum distribution of W bosons produced in $p\bar{p}$ collisions, using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.35 fb -1 collected with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron collider at $\sqrt{s}$ = 1.96 TeV. The measurement focuses on the transverse momentum region below 15 GeV, which is of special interest for electroweak precision measurements; it relies on the same detector calibration methods which were used for the precision measurement of the W boson mass. The measured distribution is compared to different QCD predictions and a procedure is given to allow the comparison of any further theoretical models to the D0 data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Extreme Risk Mitigation in Reinforcement Learning using Extreme Value Theory

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) has garnered significant attention in recent years due to the growing interest in deploying RL agents in real-world scenarios. A critical aspect of risk awareness involves modelling highly rare risk events (rewards) that could potentially lead to catastrophic outcomes. These infrequent occurrences present a formidable challenge for data-driven methods aiming to capture such risky events accurately. While risk-aware RL techniques do exist, they suffer from high variance estimation due to the inherent data scarcity. Our work proposes to enhance the resilience of RL agents when faced with very rare and risky events by focusing on refining the predictions of the extreme values predicted by the state-action value distribution. To achieve this, we formulate the extreme values of the state-action value function distribution as parameterized distributions, drawing inspiration from the principles of extreme value theory (EVT). We propose an extreme value theory based actor-critic approach, namely, Extreme Valued Actor-Critic (EVAC) which effectively addresses the issue of infrequent occurrence by leveraging EVT-based parameterization. Importantly, we theoretically demonstrate the advantages of employing these parameterized distributions in contrast to other risk-averse algorithms. Our evaluations show that the proposed method outperforms other risk averse RL algorithms on a diverse range of benchmark tasks, each encompassing distinct risk scenarios.

Wang, Yu↗

DOE OSTI2020

Conservative Estimation of Tail Probabilities from Limited Sample Data

Several sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are compared for conservative but not overly conservative estimation of small tail probabilities involving responses that lay beyond specified thresholds in the tails of probability distributions. Sixteen very differently shaped distributions (or probability density functions, PDFs) and tail probability magnitudes ranging from 10 -5 to 10 -1 are considered in order for the study to be relevant to a wide range of risk analysis and quantification of margins and uncertainty (QMU) problems. The emphasis of the study is on limited data regimes ranging from N = 2 to 20 samples, reflective of most experimental and some expensive computational situations. Relatively simple sparse-sample UQ methods tested for this regime involve statistical tolerance interval "Equivalent Normal and related "Ensemble of Normals" and "Superdistribution (SD) approaches. (The independently derived SD is effectively equivalent to the Bayesian posterior predictive distribution given the assumptions of the derivation.) The performance of the methods was generally improved for N ≥ 5 samples with a generalized Jackknife resampling technique, which determines a tail probability estimate by averaging estimates from smaller sub-samples. Several quantitative metrics for method conservatism and accuracy of tail probability estimation are used to assess and rank the methods' performance over many random trials for each test PDF and probability magnitude. A variant of Bootstrap resampling was also tried, but did not significantly improve tail probability estimates in most cases. Detailed results are presented from over 100-million tests over the above factors that provide useful granular information on which methods or combination of methods perform best in various areas of the factor space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗