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STARSITE Program: Search To Assess Re- sources, Social, Institutional, Technical, and Environmental, toward a decision-making mechanism

The systems approach was used in the seminar on the complex multidisciplinary problem of housing and related environment conditions. The main areas of study are the following; historical overview of housing; diagrammatic presentation of the problem; technological innovations and contributions; management, economic, legal, and political considerations; environment and natural resources; human needs and behavior; model of the housing industry; and potential for implementation. It is felt that a greater attempt should be made to transfer aerospace technology to the housing industry; however, the emphasis of the conference was directed to the modern management techniques developed by NASA. Among the conclusions are the following: The extent and character of the housing problem should be defined. Increased coordination of housing programs within and between Federal agencies is essential. Development of physically sophisticated building systems requires Federal support. New towns of differing life styles need to be created. Physiological and psychological reactions to environmental enclosure need to be defined.

Source record↗

Decision-directed adaptive recursive estimators - Divergence prevention.

A method is proposed for dealing with the divergence phenomenon problem encountered in applications of minimum-variance recursive estimators when the error covariance calculated by the estimator becomes inconsistent with the actual error covariance. The proposed method differs from previous ones in that the state model and statistics are accepted as given. The form of the optimal estimator is used, but a constant check is made on the consistency of the calculated and actual error covariances. The method is independent of the source of error, whether it be inaccuracies in the system model, incorrect values of the a priori and random process statistics, approximations required in the case of nonlinear systems, or computational roundoff. Several simulated examples, in which inconsistencies in the calculated and actual error covariances exist, show a significant improvement in the performance of the estimator when the given procedure is applied.

Nahi, N. E.↗

Outline of a new approach to the analysis of complex systems and decision processes.

Development of a conceptual framework for dealing with systems which are too complex or too ill-defined to admit of precise quantitative analysis. The approach outlined is based on the premise that the key elements in human thinking are not numbers, but labels of fuzzy sets - i.e., classes of objects in which the transition from membership to nonmembership is gradual rather than abrupt. The approach in question has three main distinguishing features - namely, the use of so-called 'linguistic' variables in place of or in addition to numerical variables, the characterization of simple relations between variables by conditional fuzzy statements, and the characterization of complex relations by fuzzy algorithms.

Zadeh, L. A.↗

Utilizing remote sensing data for land use decisions for Indian lands in South Dakota.

Evaluation of photographic and thermal infrared imagery acquired at an altitude of 11,500 ft above ground level (in southwestern South Dakota) on Oct. 15, 1970, June 30, 1971, and Aug. 2, 1971, for use in mapping range sites and soils. A density slicing system was used to enhance film optical density differences associated with range sites and soils. The range site boundaries in native rangeland areas were found to be delineated best by a density slicing analysis of color infrared film obtained in August 1971. The range site maps produced by density slicing were superior to existing range inventory maps. The density slicing analysis of color infrared film from the August 1971 flight was best for locating soil boundaries in rangeland areas. To adequately map soils in rangeland areas, data based on density slicing used in conjunction with slope gradient information derived from stereoscopic analyses provided more detailed and accurate information than is presently available from range site and soil maps of the area.

Frazee, C. J.↗

Decision-directed automatic gain control for MAPSK systems

An automatic gain control (AGC) loop is presented for use with M-ary amplitude and phase shift keying (MAPSK) systems. The gain control amplifier is regulated by an error signal formed by the difference between the estimated amplitude level and the received amplitude level. The AGC performance is thus independent of the short-term average received signal energy. AGC loop analysis and simulation is presented for M-ary amplitude shift keying and quadrature amplitude shift keying. The AGC is shown to have a negligible degradation on the symbol probability of error for most practical cases. A generalized AGC for an arbitrary MAPSK system is presented.

Weber, W. J., III↗

Data acquisition and path selection decision making for an autonomous roving vehicle

Problems related to the guidance of an autonomous rover for unmanned planetary exploration were investigated. Topics included in these studies were: simulation on an interactive graphics computer system of the Rapid Estimation Technique for detection of discrete obstacles; incorporation of a simultaneous Bayesian estimate of states and inputs in the Rapid Estimation Scheme; development of methods for estimating actual laser rangefinder errors and their application to date provided by Jet Propulsion Laboratory; and modification of a path selection system simulation computer code for evaluation of a hazard detection system based on laser rangefinder data.

Frederick, D. K.↗

Acreage estimation, feature selection, and signature extension dependent upon the maximum likelihood decision rule

A maximum likelihood estimation technique is used for the analysis of agricultural remote sensor data. The m-class probability of misclassification is estimated using unlabeled test samples and labeled training samples. A bound on the variance of a proposed unbiased estimator of the m-class probability of error is derived. The particular case in which each class density is assumed to be a mixture of multivariate normal densities is considered. The extension of spectral signatures in space and time is discussed.

Quirein, J. A.↗

A decision directed detector for the phase incoherent Gaussian channel

A vector digital signalling scheme is proposed for simultaneous adaptive data transmission and phase estimation. The use of maximum likelihood estimation methods predicts a better performance than the phase-locked loop. The phase estimate is shown to converge to the true value, so that the adaptive nature of the detector effectively achieves phase acquisition and improvement in performance. No separate synchronization interval is required and phase fluctuations can be tracked simultaneously with the transmission of information.

Kazakos, D.↗

The uncertainty threshold principle - Some fundamental limitations of optimal decision making under dynamic uncertainty

This note shows that the optimal control of dynamic systems with uncertain parameters has certain limitations. In particular, by means of a simple scalar linear-quadratic optimal control example, it is shown that the infinite horizon solution does not exist if the parameter uncertainty exceeds a certain quantifiable threshold; we call this the uncertainty threshold principle. The philosophical and design implications of this result are discussed.

Athans, M.↗