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Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations will require large-scale transformations in human societies, from the way that we produce and consume energy to how we use the land surface. A natural question in this context is what will be the ‘transformation pathway’ towards stabilization; that is, how do we get from here to there? The topic of this chapter is transformation pathways. The chapter is primarily motivated by three questions. First, what are the near-term and future choices that define transformation pathways, including the goal itself, the emissions pathway to the goal, technologies used for and sectors contributing to mitigation, the nature of international coordination, and mitigation policies? Second, what are the key characteristics of different transformation pathways, including the rates of emissions reductions and deployment of low-carbon energy, the magnitude and timing of aggregate economic costs, and the implications for other policy objectives such as those generally associated with sustainable development? Third, how will actions taken today influence the options that might be available in the future? As part of the assessment in this chapter, data from over 1000 new scenarios published since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) were collected from integrated modelling research groups, many from large-scale model intercomparison studies. In comparison to AR4, new scenarios, both in this AR5 dataset and more broadly in the literature assessed in this chapter, consider more ambitious concentration goals, a wider range of assumptions about technology, and more possibilities for delays in global mitigation and fragmented international action.

Clarke, Leon E.↗

Application of Banking Scoring and Rating for Coherent Risk Measures in Electricity Systems ABSCORES

This project developed a framework for asset and system risk management that can be incorporated into current electricity system operations to improve economic efficiency and establish an Electric Assets Risk Bureau. We leveraged scoring and ratings from banking and financial institutions alongside current optimization methods in dispatching power systems to help system operators and electricity markets schedule resources. This approach is based on the observation that there are major discrepancies between the power scheduled by a system operator and the actual power generated/consumed. These discrepancies—exacerbated by unplanned contingencies (e.g., natural disasters)—are caused by multiple factors, including the different financial, environmental and risk preferences of power producers, consumers, and aggregators. We developed a framework that counteracts two failures in electricity system operations: imperfect information and missing markets for products. The technical approach included five tasks. Tasks 1 and 2 supported the development of risk scores at the asset level with historical data collected for this project. Tasks 3, 4, and 5 incorporated scoring into decision-making at the system level. The proposed effort achieved PERFORM's Program Objectives because the proposed outputs and algorithms do not exist in the electricity industry and are an innovative approach to managing risk. Since the acknowledged need to better assess and act upon risk profiles for grid assets has not been met by the industry, this project will also impact ARPA-E's Mission Areas, including improving energy efficiency and giving the U.S. a technological lead in advanced energy technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

End-to-End Simulations of a 3.4-Meter Detector Wall for Neutron-Diagnosed Subcritical Experiments

The Nevada National Security Site, together with Los Alamos National Laboratory and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, is developing a novel diagnostic to measure the reactivity of subcritical experiments. This capability is known as neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiments. The decay of the fission gamma rays from the neutron-interrogated subcritical experiment is measured as a function of time with a large (~3-meter diameter) detector wall consisting of 151 individual detector pixels. The data from this current mode measurement inform the neutron multiplication factor, keff, and thus the relative reactivity of the subcritical experiment. The Nevada National Security Site developed the Gamma Array Simulation Toolkit initially to help inform the design of the individual detector pixels and the 3.4-meter diameter detector wall to be fielded as part of neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiments. This toolkit is now being used to simulate and predict the performance of the final design of the individual detector pixels and the aggregate detector wall. Key detector characteristics evaluated from these simulations include impulse response, pulse height spectrum, number of photoelectrons per MeV, detector efficiency, and cross talk between detector pixels. Collectively, the results of these simulations inform how well the fission gamma ray die-off distribution from a neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiment measurement can be resolved. This is critical to determining the relative reactivity of the experiment. Furthermore, the Gamma Array Simulation Toolkit can be used to aid in the analysis of the experimental data from a neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiment measurement once the simulation has been benchmarked.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

End-to-End Simulations of a 3.4-Meter Detector Wall for Neutron-Diagnosed Subcritical Experiments

The Nevada National Security Site, together with Los Alamos National Laboratory and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, is developing a novel diagnostic to measure the reactivity of subcritical experiments. This capability is known as neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiments. The decay of the fission gamma rays from the neutron-interrogated subcritical experiment is measured as a function of time with a large (~3-meter diameter) detector wall consisting of 151 individual detector pixels. The data from this current mode measurement inform the neutron multiplication factor, keff, and thus the relative reactivity of the subcritical experiment. The Nevada National Security Site developed the Gamma Array Simulation Toolkit initially to help inform the design of the individual detector pixels and the 3.4-meter diameter detector wall to be fielded as part of neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiments. This toolkit is now being used to simulate and predict the performance of the final design of the individual detector pixels and the aggregate detector wall. Key detector characteristics evaluated from these simulations include impulse response, pulse height spectrum, number of photoelectrons per MeV, detector efficiency, and cross talk between detector pixels. Collectively, the results of these simulations inform how well the fission gamma ray die-off distribution from a neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiment measurement can be resolved. This is critical to determining the relative reactivity of the experiment. Furthermore, the Gamma Array Simulation Toolkit can be used to aid in the analysis of the experimental data from a neutrondiagnosed subcritical experiment measurement once the simulation has been benchmarked.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

FORTÉ Machine Learning

Of the non-corrupted data collected by the Orbiting Experiment (forté) satellite’s Photo-Diode Detector during the year 2001, I estimate that 7.9% of 914 894 signals are noise. My result differs dramatically from Guillen’s estimate of 96%. To arrive at this estimate, I used Gaussian mixture model (GMM) clustering–unsupervised machine learning–to aggregate the wave forms into groups based on the absolute value of the lowest 25 positive frequency discrete Fourier transform coefficients. Then, I marked several of the groups as noise by inspecting a random sampling of wave forms from each group. Marking groups as either noise or non-noise is a supervised binary classification operation. After removing the signals in noise groups from further consideration, I clustered the remaining signals into families. Again, I used a GMM, but for the familial clustering I used a Non-Negative Matrix Factorization feature vector transform. The result was 9 distinct families of lightning signals, as well as a second stage of noise filtering. To efficiently represent the entirety of the signal space, I broke each family into deciles based on their distance from the family mean. In this case, distance means the log-likelihood based on the GMM. Signals in lower deciles are more similar in shape and amplitude to their family average. I took the top 200 samples from each decile of each group, resulting in 18 000 signals. These signal approximately represent the entirety of the forté observations. To represent outliers, I also kept a zoo of the 1000 signals furthest from any family’s average. All told, the resulting data set represents the forté data with a reduction of about 51:1. To allow synthesis of an arbitrarily large number of test signals, I also captured each family’s average signal and the time-sample covariance matrix over the signals in each family. Using these two pieces of information, I can synthesize new waveforms by using a Gaussian random realization from the family average and covariance matrix. I wrote a program to test the synthesis quality. The program shows me two signals on the screen, one synthesized and one randomly drawn from the data. I attempted to identify the synthesized signal. Although the synthesis is imperfect, in an A/B comparison I only correctly chose the synthesized signal 36% of the time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

End-to-End Simulations of a 3.4-Meter Detector Wall for Neutron-Diagnosed Subcritical Experiments

The Nevada National Security Site, together with Los Alamos National Laboratory and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, is developing a novel diagnostic to measure the reactivity of subcritical experiments. This capability is known as neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiments. The decay of the fission gamma rays from the neutron-interrogated subcritical experiment is measured as a function of time with a large (~3-meter diameter) detector wall consisting of 151 individual detector pixels. The data from this current mode measurement inform the neutron multiplication factor, keff, and thus the relative reactivity of the subcritical experiment. The Nevada National Security Site developed the Gamma Array Simulation Toolkit initially to help inform the design of the individual detector pixels and the 3.4-meter diameter detector wall to be fielded as part of neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiments. This toolkit is now being used to simulate and predict the performance of the final design of the individual detector pixels and the aggregate detector wall. Additionally, key detector characteristics evaluated from these simulations include impulse response, pulse height spectrum, number of photoelectrons per MeV, detector efficiency, and cross talk between detector pixels. Collectively, the results of these simulations inform how well the fission gamma ray die-off distribution from a neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiment measurement can be resolved. This is critical to determining the relative reactivity of the experiment. Furthermore, the Gamma Array Simulation Toolkit can be used to aid in the analysis of the experimental data from a neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiment measurement once the simulation has been benchmarked.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

COHESION OF AMORPHOUS SILICA SPHERES: TOWARD A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE COAGULATION GROWTH OF SILICATE DUST AGGREGATES

Adhesion forces between submicrometer-sized silicate grains play a crucial role in the formation of silicate dust agglomerates, rocky planetesimals, and terrestrial planets. The surface energy of silicate dust particles is the key to their adhesion and rolling forces in a theoretical model based on contact mechanics. Here we revisit the cohesion of amorphous silica spheres by compiling available data on the surface energy for hydrophilic amorphous silica in various circumstances. It turned out that the surface energy for hydrophilic amorphous silica in a vacuum is a factor of 10 higher than previously assumed. Therefore, the previous theoretical models underestimated the critical velocity for the sticking of amorphous silica spheres, as well as the rolling friction forces between them. With the most plausible value of the surface energy for amorphous silica spheres, theoretical models based on the contact mechanics are in harmony with laboratory experiments. Consequently, we conclude that silicate grains with a radius of 0.1 μm could grow to planetesimals via coagulation in a protoplanetary disk. We argue that the coagulation growth of silicate grains in a molecular cloud is advanced either by organic mantles rather than icy mantles or, if there are no mantles, by nanometer-sized grain radius.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Leveraging Optimal Sparse Sensor Placement to Aggregate a Network of Digital Twins for Nuclear Subsystems

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) require continuous monitoring of various systems, structures, and components to ensure safe and efficient operations. The critical safety testing of new fuel compositions and the analysis of the effects of power transients on core temperatures can be achieved through modeling and simulations. They capture the dynamics of the physical phenomenon associated with failure modes and facilitate the creation of digital twins (DTs). Accurate reconstruction of fields of interest (e.g., temperature, pressure, velocity) from sensor measurements is crucial to establish a two-way communication between physical experiments and models. Sensor placement is highly constrained in most nuclear subsystems due to challenging operating conditions and inherent spatial limitations. This study develops optimized data-driven sensor placements for full-field reconstruction within reactor and steam generator subsystems of NPPs. Optimized constrained sensors reconstruct field of interest within a tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel irradiation experiment, a lumped parameter model of a nuclear fuel test rod and a steam generator. The optimization procedure leverages reduced-order models of flow physics to provide a highly accurate full-field reconstruction of responses of interest, noise-induced uncertainty quantification and physically feasible sensor locations. Accurate sensor-based reconstructions establish a foundation for the digital twinning of subsystems, culminating in a comprehensive DT aggregate of an NPP.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Soil carbon cycling proxies: Understanding their critical role in predicting climate change feedbacks

The complexity of processes and interactions that drive soil C dynamics necessitate the use of proxy variables to represent soil characteristics that cannot be directly measured (correlative proxies), or that aggregate information about multiple soil characteristics into one variable (integrative proxies). These proxies have proven useful for understanding the soil C cycle, which is highly variable in both space and time, and are now being used to make predictions of the C fate and persistence under future climate scenarios. As these proxies are used at increasingly larger scales, the C pools and processes that proxies represent must be thoughtfully considered in order to minimize uncertainties in empirical understanding, as well as in model parameters and in model outcomes. The importance of these uncertainties is further amplified by the current need to make predictions of the C cycle for the non steady state environmental conditions resulting from global climate change. To clarify the appropriate uses of proxy variables, we provide specific examples of proxy variables that could improve decision making, adaptation choices, and modeling skill, while not foreclosing on – and also encouraging – continued work on their mechanistic underpinnings. We explore the use of three common soil proxies used to study soil organic matter: metabolic quotient, clay content, and physical fractionation. We also consider emerging data types, specifically genome-sequence data, and how these serve as proxies for microbial community activities. We opine that the demand for increasing mechanistic detail, and the flood of data from new imaging and genetic techniques, does not replace the value of correlative and integrative proxies--variables that are simpler, easier, or cheaper to measure. By closely examining the current knowledge gaps and broad assumptions in soil C cycling with the proxies already in use, we can develop new hypotheses and specify criteria for new and needed proxies.

Bailey, Vanessa L.↗

Quantifying Errors in TRMM-Based Multi-Sensor QPE Products Over Land in Preparation for GPM

Determining uncertainties in satellite-based multi-sensor quantitative precipitation estimates over land of fundamental importance to both data producers and hydro climatological applications. ,Evaluating TRMM-era products also lays the groundwork and sets the direction for algorithm and applications development for future missions including GPM. QPE uncertainties result mostly from the interplay of systematic errors and random errors. In this work, we will synthesize our recent results quantifying the error characteristics of satellite-based precipitation estimates. Both systematic errors and total uncertainties have been analyzed for six different TRMM-era precipitation products (3B42, 3B42RT, CMORPH, PERSIANN, NRL and GSMap). For systematic errors, we devised an error decomposition scheme to separate errors in precipitation estimates into three independent components, hit biases, missed precipitation and false precipitation. This decomposition scheme reveals hydroclimatologically-relevant error features and provides a better link to the error sources than conventional analysis, because in the latter these error components tend to cancel one another when aggregated or averaged in space or time. For the random errors, we calculated the measurement spread from the ensemble of these six quasi-independent products, and thus produced a global map of measurement uncertainties. The map yields a global view of the error characteristics and their regional and seasonal variations, reveals many undocumented error features over areas with no validation data available, and provides better guidance to global assimilation of satellite-based precipitation data. Insights gained from these results and how they could help with GPM will be highlighted.

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.↗

Determination of the Structures of Lignin Subunits and Nanoparticles in Solution by Small‐Angle Neutron Scattering: Towards Improving Lignin Valorization

Abstract Lignin nanoparticles (LNPs) are usually produced from lignin solution through supersaturation. The structure of the lignin in solution is still poorly understood due to structural variability of isolated lignins. Here, lignins were extracted from different plants to establish a general pattern of their structure in several lignin solvents. Lignin molecules (lignin subunits) and larger aggregates were observed in dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO), ethylene glycol (EG) and 0.1 N NaOD solutions by small‐angle neutron scattering (SANS). It was proposed that the aggregates were composed of lignin subunits with a higher molecular weight and a higher ratio of the aliphatic to phenolic hydroxyl groups. The size, shape, and compactness are important factors that affect the uses of the LNPs, which were obtained from the SANS data for the first time. A discrepancy in the radius between SANS and DLS was discovered, pointing to a large hydration shell around the LNPs in aqueous solutions. The cytotoxicity of the corncob lignin, kraft lignin, and their LNPs were measured and compared.

Zhang, Xin↗

Methane Leaks from Natural Gas Systems Follow Extreme Distributions

Future energy systems may rely on natural gas as a low-cost fuel to support variable renewable power. However, leaking natural gas causes climate damage because methane (CH 4 ) has a high global warming potential. In this study, we use extreme-value theory to explore the distribution of natural gas leak sizes. By analyzing ~15,000 measurements from 18 prior studies, we show that all available natural gas leakage datasets are statistically heavy-tailed, and that gas leaks are more extremely distributed than other natural and social phenomena. A unifying result is that the largest 5% of leaks typically contribute over 50% of the total leakage volume. While prior studies used lognormal model distributions, we show that lognormal functions poorly represent tail behavior. Our results suggest that published uncertainty ranges of CH 4 emissions are too narrow, and that larger sample sizes are required in future studies to achieve targeted confidence intervals. Additionally, we find that cross-study aggregation of datasets to increase sample size is not recommended due to apparent deviation between sampled populations. Finally, understanding the nature of leak distributions can improve emission estimates, better illustrate their uncertainty, allow prioritization of source categories, and improve sampling design. Also, these data can be used for more effective design of leak detection technologies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Controlling the intermediate structure of an ionic liquid for f-block element separations

Recent research has revealed molecular structure beyond the inner coordination sphere is essential in defining the performance of separations processes, but nevertheless remains largely unexplored. Here we apply small angle neutron scattering (SANS) and x-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) spectroscopy to investigate the structure of an ionic liquid system studied for f-block element separations. SANS data reveal dramatic changes in the ionic liquid microstructure (~150 Å) which we demonstrate can be controlled by judicious selection of counter ion. Mesoscale structural features (> 500 Å) are also observed as a function of metal concentration. XAFS analysis supports formation of extended aggregate structures, similar to those observed in traditional solvent extraction processes, and suggest additional parallels may be drawn from further study. As a result, achieving precise tunability over the intermediate features is an important development in controlling mesoscale structure and realizing advanced new forms of soft matter.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Supplementary Clear-Sky Snow and Ice Recognition Technique for CERES Level 2 Products

Identification of clear-sky snow and ice is an important step in the production of cryosphere radiation budget products, which are used in the derivation of long-term data series for climate research. In this paper, a new method of clear-sky snow/ice identification for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is presented. The algorithm's goal is to enhance the identification of snow and ice within the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data after application of the standard CERES scene identification scheme. The input of the algorithm uses spectral radiances from five MODIS bands and surface skin temperature available in the CERES Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) product. The algorithm produces a cryosphere rating from an aggregated test: a higher rating corresponds to a more certain identification of the clear-sky snow/ice-covered scene. Empirical analysis of regions of interest representing distinctive targets such as snow, ice, ice and water clouds, open waters, and snow-free land selected from a number of MODIS images shows that the cryosphere rating of snow/ice targets falls into 95% confidence intervals lying above the same confidence intervals of all other targets. This enables recognition of clear-sky cryosphere by using a single threshold applied to the rating, which makes this technique different from traditional branching techniques based on multiple thresholds. Limited tests show that the established threshold clearly separates the cryosphere rating values computed for the cryosphere from those computed for noncryosphere scenes, whereas individual tests applied consequently cannot reliably identify the cryosphere for complex scenes.

Radkevich, Alexander↗

Resolving Ice Cloud Optical Thickness Biases Between CALIOP and MODIS Using Infrared Retrievals

Despite its importance as one of the key radiative properties that determines the impact of upper tropospheric clouds on the radiation balance, ice cloud optical thickness (IOT) has proven to be one of the more challenging properties to retrieve from space-based remote sensing measurements. In particular, optically thin upper tropospheric ice clouds (cirrus) have been especially challenging due to their tenuous nature, extensive spatial scales, and complex particle shapes and light scattering characteristics. The lack of independent validation motivates the investigation presented in this paper, wherein systematic biases between MODIS Collection 5 (C5) and CALIOP Version 3 (V3) unconstrained retrievals of tenuous IOT (< 3) are examined using a month of collocated A-Train observations. An initial comparison revealed a factor of two bias between the MODIS and CALIOP IOT retrievals. This bias is investigated using an infrared (IR) radiative closure approach that compares both products with MODIS IR cirrus retrievals developed for this assessment. The analysis finds that both the MODIS C5 and the unconstrained CALIOP V3 retrievals are biased (high and low, respectively) relative to the IR IOT retrievals. Based on this finding, the MODIS and CALIOP algorithms are investigated with the goal of explaining and minimizing the biases relative to the IR. For MODIS we find that the assumed ice single scattering properties used for the C5 retrievals are not consistent with the mean IR COT distribution. The C5 ice scattering database results in the asymmetry parameter (g) varying as a function of effective radius with mean values that are too large. The MODIS retrievals have been brought into agreement with the IR by adopting a new ice scattering model for Collection 6 (C6) consisting of a modified gamma distribution comprised of a single habit (severely roughened aggregated columns); the C6 ice cloud optical property models have a constant g approx. = 0.75 in the mid-visible spectrum, 5-15% smaller than C5. For CALIOP, the assumed lidar ratio for unconstrained retrievals is fixed at 25 sr for the V3 data products.This value is found to be inconsistent with the constrained (predominantly nighttime) CALIOP retrievals. An experimental data set was produced using a modified lidar ratio of 32 sr for the unconstrained retrievals (an increase of 28%), selected to provide consistency with the constrained V3 results. These modifications greatly improve the agreement with the IR and provide consistency between the MODIS and CALIOP products. Based on these results the recently released MODIS C6 optical products use the single habit distribution given above, while the upcoming CALIOP V4 unconstrained algorithm will use higher lidar ratios for unconstrained retrievals.

Cloud↗

SCIFLI HORIS Windowpane Optical Analysis

This NASA Technical Memorandum summarizes windowpane optical analyses for the OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification and Security Regolith Explorer) mission [1] supported by the SCIFLI (Scientifically Calibrated In-Flight Imagery) team [2] at NASA Langley Research Center (NASA LaRC). The SCIFLI team led a NASA multi-center team in characterization of fused silica (FS) and anti-reflective coated (AR-coated) sapphire materials for use as aircraft windowpanes. These materials were needed for the Hypervelocity OSIRIS-REx Reentry Imaging & Spectroscopy (HORIS) mission and were tested to generate performance parameters relevant to the flight environment. Some of the assessed parameters included optical quality, transmittance, reflectance, color balance, birefringence, transmitted wavefront error, wedge, and haziness of the windows. In order to evaluate the material characteristics in a uniform manner, several criteria were held constant. For example, the physical dimensions of the test articles were held constant (i.e., 17-inch diameter aircraft windowpane and 2-inch diameter witness samples). In this way, the comparison of test results from one material specimen to another was invariant with regard to the manner in which the tests were conducted. This also reduced the variability in how the data were reported. As a result, the results shown in this report, including test data generated by NASA can be used for windowpane material evaluation and future material design trades. Window designers can use the data and the testing method along with the testing matrices to efficiently match material performance to their design and mission objectives and requirements. Standardized testing methodologies and data reduction procedures are described in this report. Unless otherwise noted in the data itself, all the windowpane materials were tested in order to characterize their performance for the HORIS mission. One appendix has been included in this report. These include detailed wavefront interferograms of transmitted wavefront error and optical wedge used in the generation of aggregated material performance.

SCIFLI↗

Secondary structure of rat and human amylin across force fields

The aggregation of human amylin has been strongly implicated in the progression of Type II diabetes. This 37-residue peptide forms a variety of secondary structures, including random coils, α-helices, and β-hairpins. The balance between these structures depends on the chemical environment, making amylin an ideal candidate to examine inherent biases in force fields. Rat amylin differs from human amylin by only 6 residues; however, it does not form fibrils. Therefore it provides a useful complement to human amylin in studies of the key events along the aggregation pathway. In this work, the free energy of rat and human amylin was determined as a function of α-helix and β-hairpin content for the Gromos96 53a6, OPLS-AA/L, CHARMM22/CMAP, CHARMM22*, Amberff99sb*-ILDN, and Amberff03w force fields using advanced sampling techniques, specifically bias exchange metadynamics. This work represents a first systematic attempt to evaluate the conformations and the corresponding free energy of a large, clinically relevant disordered peptide in solution across force fields. The NMR chemical shifts of rIAPP were calculated for each of the force fields using their respective free energy maps, allowing us to quantitatively assess their predictions. We show that the predicted distribution of secondary structures is sensitive to the choice of force-field: Gromos53a6 is biased towards β-hairpins, while CHARMM22/CMAP predicts structures that are overly α-helical. OPLS-AA/L favors disordered structures. Amberff99sb*-ILDN, AmberFF03w and CHARMM22* provide the balance between secondary structures that is most consistent with available experimental data. In contrast to previous reports, our findings suggest that the equilibrium conformations of human and rat amylin are remarkably similar, but that subtle differences arise in transient alpha-helical and beta-strand containing structures that the human peptide can more readily adopt. We hypothesize that these transient states enable dynamic pathways that facilitate the formation of aggregates and, eventually, amyloid fibrils.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Transfer learning for probabilistic localization of hidden cracks in concrete structures

Abstract The utility of discriminative supervised learning models built using multiple training-data sources is investigated for hidden crack localization in concrete. Feed-forward neural network (FFNN) is chosen as the model architecture, and transfer learning is used to assimilate the information obtained from different sources (computational physics simulations and laboratory experiments). The labeled training data consists of values of a damage index and the known locations of hidden cracks. The classification models need to learn how the presence of damage (hidden cracks) affects the damage index at different sensors for different test conditions. To this end, diagnostic FFNN models are built by sequentially adding and training new hidden layers to assimilate labeled information from computer models (different model geometries, test conditions, crack lengths, crack locations) and laboratory experiments on a plain cement slab. These transfer learning-based models are then used to localize damage in concrete specimens that reflect real-world conditions (i.e., specimens with steel reinforcement and randomly distributed aggregate). The actual damage state in these specimens is determined by extracting cores and performing petrographic studies on the extracted cores. The damage probability estimated by transfer learning-based models is compared with the petrographic damage rating index (DRI) to identify the most suitable approach to train the diagnostic models. The transfer learning-based diagnostic methodology shows promise and could be used in various structural health monitoring applications, where sufficient labeled data are typically not available from a single data source.

Miele, S.↗