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NASA NTRS2004

RXTE Timing and Spectroscopy of a Black Hole X-Ray Binary in Outburst

This program was executed primarily to observe the black hole transient GX339-4. Observations were made simultaneously with XMM-Newton in 2004 March, and observations simultaneous with Chandra will continue to be made in the fall of 2004. As the total data set has not yet been obtained, a great deal of work remains. Preliminary examination of the data has shown extremely exciting spectral features (Fe K-alpha emission lines) and timing features (strong QPOs and flaring variability) of exactly the sort we hoped to obtain. We expect that the results of these observations will be finalized over the next year. The results will be presented in 2-3 publications in refereed journals. We have requested a no-cost extension of this grant to analyze and report our findings.

Miller, Jon M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Optimal Synthesis of Compliant Mechanisms using Subdivision and Commercial FEA (DETC2004-57497)

The field of distributed-compliance mechanisms has seen significant work in developing suitable topology optimization tools for their design. These optimal design tools have grown out of the techniques of structural optimization. This paper will build on the previous work in topology optimization and compliant mechanism design by proposing an alternative design space parameterization through control points and adding another step to the process, that of subdivision. The control points allow a specific design to be represented as a solid model during the optimization process. The process of subdivision creates an additional number of control points that help smooth the surface (for example a C(sup 2) continuous surface depending on the method of subdivision chosen) creating a manufacturable design free of some traditional numerical instabilities. Note that these additional control points do not add to the number of design parameters. This alternative parameterization and description as a solid model effectively and completely separates the design variables from the analysis variables during the optimization procedure. The motivation behind this work is to create an automated design tool from task definition to functional prototype created on a CNC or rapid-prototype machine. This paper will describe the proposed compliant mechanism design process and will demonstrate the procedure on several examples common in the literature.

Hull, Patrick V.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Multivariable Parametric Cost Model for Ground Optical Telescope Assembly

A parametric cost model for ground-based telescopes is developed using multivariable statistical analysis of both engineering and performance parameters. While diameter continues to be the dominant cost driver, diffraction-limited wavelength is found to be a secondary driver. Other parameters such as radius of curvature are examined. The model includes an explicit factor for primary mirror segmentation and/or duplication (i.e., multi-telescope phased-array systems). Additionally, single variable models Based on aperture diameter are derived.

Stahl, H. Philip↗
NASA NTRS2007

Geo-STAR: A Geostationary Microwave Sounder for the Future

The Geostationary Synthetic Thinned Aperture Radiometer (GeoSTAR) is a new Earth remote sensing instrument concept that has been under development at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. First conceived in 1998 as a NASA New Millennium Program mission and subsequently developed in 2003-2006 as a proof-of-concept prototype under the NASA Instrument Incubator Program, it is intended to fill a serious gap in our Earth remote sensing capabilities - namely the lack of a microwave atmospheric sounder in geostationary orbit. The importance of such observations have been recognized by the National Academy of Sciences National Research Council, which recently released its report on a 'Decadal Survey' of NASA Earth Science activities1. One of the recommended missions for the next decade is a geostationary microwave sounder. GeoSTAR is well positioned to meet the requirements of such a mission, and because of the substantial investment NASA has already made in GeoSTAR technology development, this concept is fast approaching the necessary maturity for implementation in the next decade. NOAA is also keenly interested in GeoSTAR as a potential payload on its next series of geostationary weather satellites, the GOES-R series. GeoSTAR, with its ability to map out the three-dimensional structure of temperature, water vapor, clouds, precipitation and convective parameters on a continual basis, will significantly enhance our ability to observe hurricanes and other severe storms. In addition, with performance matching that of current and next generation of low-earth-orbiting microwave sounders, GeoSTAR will also provide observations important to the study of the hydrologic cycle, atmospheric processes and climate variability and trends. In particular, with GeoSTAR it will be possible to fully resolve the diurnal cycle. We discuss the GeoSTAR concept and basic design, the performance of the prototype, and a number of science applications that will be possible with GeoSTAR. The work reported on here was performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Geostationary Synthetic Thinned Aperture Radiomete↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Simple Mechanism for Fractionating Oxygen Isotopes in the Solar Nebula

Lightning in the Solar Nebula is caused by the tribo-electric charging of dust grains carried by massive turbulent flows and driven by the accretion energy in the disk: it has long been one agent assumed responsible for the formation of chondrules. The degree to which charge separation can occur is dependent upon a number of factors, including the concentration of radioactive sources and the total level of ionization in the nebula, and these factors determine the maximum energy likely to be released by a single bolt. While chondrule formation requires a massive discharge, even a small lightning bolt can vaporize grains in the ionized discharge channel. Experimental studies have shown that silica, iron silicate and iron oxide grains formed from a high voltage discharge in hydrogen rich gas containing some oxygen produces solids that are enriched in O-17 and O-18 relative to the composition of the starting gas. Vaporization of silicates produces SiO, metal and free oxygen atoms in each discharge and these species will immediately begin to recondense from the hot plasma. Freshly condensed grains are incrementally enriched in heavy oxygen while the gas is enriched in O-16. Repeated evaporation and condensation of silicates in continuously occurring lightning discharges will monotonically increase the fractionation of oxygen isotopes between the O-17 and O-18 rich dust and the O-16 rich gas. The first mass independently fractionated refractory oxide particles were produced in the lab following the condensation of a flowing gas mixture containing variable amounts of hydrogen, silane, pentacarbonyl iron and oxygen that passed through a high voltage discharge powered by a Tesla coil. While the exact chemical pathway is still uncertain, the most probable reaction mechanisms involve oxidation of the growing refractory clusters by O3, OH or O atoms. This model has some interesting consequences for chemical processes in the early solar nebula. Chemical fractionation of recondensed dust evaporated via lightning discharges should be strongly time dependent. At earlier times, the accretion rate is maximal, thus driving strong turbulence, energetic grain-grain collisions, tribo-electric charging and charge separation, leading to frequent, powerful lightning discharges. As the accretion rate diminishes, turbulence decreases and lightning discharges will become both less powerful and less frequent, thus decreasing the rate of dust-gas fractionation. The most rapid increase in the formation of O-16 poor dust will occur early in nebular history. Generation of fractionated dust should be distributed throughout the inner disk. Once condensed, grain dispersal would average out any significant isotopic anomalies within the inner disk.

Nuth, Joseph A., III↗
NASA NTRS2012

Variability of Jupiter's Five-Micron Hot Spot Inventory

Global upheavals on Jupiter involve changes in the albedo of entire axisymmetric regions, lasting several years, with the last two occurring in 1989 and 2006. Against this backdrop of planetary-scale changes, discrete features such as the Great Red Spot (GRS), and other vortices exhibit changes on shorter spatial- and time-scales. We track the variability of the discrete equatorial 5-micron hot spots, semi-evenly spaced in longitude and confined to a narrow latitude band centered at 6.5degN (southern edge of the North Equatorial Belt, NEB), abundant in Voyager images. Tantalizingly similar patterns were observed in the visible (bright plumes and blue-gray regions), where reflectivity in the red is anti-correlated with 5-microns thermal radiance. Ortiz et al. (1998, GRL, 103) characterized the latitude and drift rates of the hot spots, including the descent of the Galileo probe at the southern edge of a 5-micron hot spot, as the superposition of equatorial Rossby waves, with phase speeds between 99 - 103m/s, relative to System III. We note that the high 5-micron radiances correlate well but not perfectly with high 8.57-micron radiances. Because the latter are modulated primarily by changes in the upper ammonia (NH3) ice cloud opacity, this correlation implies that changes in the ammonia ice cloud field may be responsible for the variability seen in the 5-~m maps. During the NEB fade (2011 - early 2012), however, these otherwise ubiquitous features were absent, an atmospheric state not seen in decades. The ongoing NEB revival indicates nascent 5-~m hot spots as early as April 2012, with corresponding visible dark spots. Their continuing growth through July 2012 indicates the possit.le re-establishment of Rossby waves. The South Equatorial Belt (SEB) and NEB revivals began similarly with an instability that developed into a major outbreak, and many similarities in the observed propagation of clear regions.

Yanamandra-Fisher, Padma A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

ALMA Spectral Imaging of Titan Contemporaneous with Cassini's Grand Finale

The Cassini mission performed 127 targeted ybys of Titan during its 13 yr mission to Saturn, culminating in the Grand Finale between 2017 April and September. Here we demonstrate the use of the Atacama Large Millimeter/ submillimeter Array (ALMA) to continue Cassini's legacy for chemical and climatological studies of Titan's atmosphere. Whole-hemisphere, interferometric spectral maps of HCN, HNC, HC3N, CH3CN, C2H3CN, C2H5CN,and C3H8 were obtained using ALMA in 2017 May at moderate (0 2, or 1300 km) spatial resolution, revealing the effects of seasonally variable chemistry and dynamics on the distribution of each species. The ALMA submillimeter observations of HCN and HC3N are consistent with Cassini infrared data on these species, obtained in the same month. Chemical/dynamical lifetimes of a few years are inferred for C2H3CN and C2H5CN, in reasonably close agreement with the latest chemical models incorporating the sticking of C2H5CN to stratospheric aerosol particles. ALMA radial limb ux proles provide column density information as a function of altitude, revealing maximum abundances in the thermosphere (above 600 km) for HCN, HNC, HC3N, and C2H5CN. This constitutes the rst detailed measurement of the spatial distribution of HNC, which is found to be conned predominantly to altitudes above 730 ± 60 km. The HNC emission map shows an east-west hemisphericasymmetry of 13% ± 3%. These results are consistent with very rapid production (and loss) of HNC in Titan's uppermost atmosphere, making this molecule an effective probe of short-timescale (diurnal) ionospheric processes.

Cordiner, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

A Summary of Normal Incidence Tube Tests of NASA'S Bio-inspired Broadband Acoustic Absorber

Motivated by the need to reduce noise pollution from aircraft engines, NASA has continued to design, manufacture and test recently patented structures that mimic the geometry and the broadband and low frequency acoustic absorption of assemblies of natural reeds. This report documents a screening test, which is a precursor to more controlled modelling experiments. The purpose of this experiment was to identify variables and prototype design features that might play a dominant role in the acoustic performance of these structures. To date, twenty-four prototypes, each with an overall shape of a cube (nominally 50 mm x 50 mm x 50 mm), were designed and additively manufactured from thermoplastics using a Fused Filament Fabrication technique. The prototypes were tested in the NASA Glenn and Langley Normal Incidence Tubes to experimentally determine the acoustic absorption as a function of frequency from 400 Hz to 3000 Hz. Results indicate that a variety of structures exhibit substantial acoustic absorption in that frequency range, with an average absorption coefficient greater than 0.6, especially in the frequency range of 400 Hz to 1000 Hz. Six basic prototype designs were chosen to inform future modeling research. Results of these experiments can be used to evaluate existing physics-based models of the interaction of sound waves with these structures or to develop new models. Validated physics-based models of these structures can help engineers optimize the designs for different commercial noise control applications.

Acoustics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Meshfree Methods for Modeling Chemo-Mechanical Cathode Cracking in Li-Ion Batteries

Through repeated charging and discharging, the electrodes of a Li-ion battery experience cyclic loading causing swelling and contraction due to the movement of lithium, also known as intercalation. This research focuses specifically on the chemo-mechanical cracking in the cathode. Because cathode particles are comprised of many randomly-oriented grains, which have highly anisotropic material properties, the expansion and contraction is very non-uniform. As a result, stress concentrations tend to form between grains, which necessitates the modeling of crack propagation largely along grain boundaries. Chemo-mechanical models are simulated mainly by two methods: the cohesive zone model (CZM) and the continuous damage model (CDM). The CZM is more accurate at capturing the sharp discontinuities of a crack but is very computationally expensive and intractable for large-scale models as a result. Conversely, the CDM is easily computed but not well-suited to easily allow for discontinuous field variables, which are inherent across a crack. This study aims to improve the CDM's ability to capture discontinuous cracks. Current versions of the CDM use the finite element method (FEM), which is one of the most widely used approaches for spatial discretization. This research investigates the use of the Reproducing Kernel Particle Method (RKPM), a meshfree method, for spatial discretization and aims to achieve a chemo-mechanical crack propagation model that achieves both intermediate accuracy and computational time between a CDM and CZM. To gain a better understanding of how the meshfree model compares to the current FEM model in capturing cathode crack propagation, further investigation is needed.

cathode cracking↗
DOE OSTI2023

Meshfree Multiphysics Damage Modeling of Li-ion Battery Materials

Through repeated charging and discharging cycles, the electrodes of a Li-ion battery experience significant swelling and contraction due to the movement of lithium, also known as intercalation. This research focuses specifically on the chemo-mechanical cracking in the cathode. Because cathode particles are comprised of many randomly-oriented grains, which have highly anisotropic material properties, the expansion and contraction is very non-uniform. As a result, stress concentrations tend to form between grains, which necessitates the modeling of crack propagation largely along grain boundaries and material interfaces. Chemo-mechanical damage models are generally simulated by one of two methods: the cohesive zone model (CZM) and the continuous damage model (CDM). The CZM is more accurate at capturing the sharp discontinuities of a crack but is very computationally expensive and intractable for large-scale models as a result. Conversely, the CDM is easily computed but not well-suited to easily allow for discontinuous field variables, which are inherent across a crack. This study aims to improve the CDM's ability to capture discontinuous cracks. Current versions of the CDM use the finite element method (FEM), which is one of the most widely used approaches for spatial discretization. This research investigates the use of the Reproducing Kernel Particle Method (RKPM), a meshfree method, for spatial discretization and aims to achieve a coupled chemo-mechanical crack propagation model that enhances accuracy while maintaining high computational efficiency. This model features a fully coupled, iterative electrochemistry solution, which informs the meshfree damage model of impending crack formation. To gain a better understanding of how the meshfree model compares to the current FEM model in capturing cathode crack propagation, further investigation is needed.

damage modeling↗
NASA NTRS1971

Variable photosynthetic units, energy transfer and light-induced evolution of hydrogen in algae and bacteria.

The present state of knowledge regarding the truly photochemical reactions in photosynthesis is considered. Nine-tenths of the available knowledge is of a biochemical nature. Questions regarding the activities of the chlorophyll system are examined. The simplest photochemical response observed in living hydrogen-adapted algal cells is the release of molecular hydrogen, which continues even after all other known natural reactions have been eliminated either by heating or the action of poisons.

Gaffron, H.↗
NASA NTRS2007

The XMM-Newton Extended Survey of the Taurus Molecular Cloud (XEST)

The Taurus Molecular Cloud (TMC) is the nearest large star-forming region, prototypical for the distributed mode of low-mass star formation. Pre-main sequence stars are luminous X-ray sources, probably mostly owing to magnetic energy release. Aims. The XMM-Newton Extended Survey of the Taurus Molecular Cloud (EST) presented in this paper surveys the most populated =5 square degrees of the TMC, using the XMM-Newton X-ray observatory to study the thermal structure, variability, and long-term evolution of hot plasma, to investigate the magnetic dynamo, and to search for new potential members of the association. Many targets are also studied in the optical, and high-resolution X-ray grating spectroscopy has been obtained for selected bright sources. Methods. The X-ray spectra have been coherently analyzed with two different thermal models (2-component thermal model, and a continuous emission measure distribution model). We present overall correlations with fundamental stellar parameters that were derived from the previous literature. A few detections from Chandra observations have been added. Results. The present overview paper introduces the project and provides the basic results from the X-ray analysis of all sources detected in the XEST survey. Comprehensive tables summarize the stellar properties of all targets surveyed. The survey goes deeper than previous X-ray surveys of Taurus by about an order of magnitude and for the first time systematically accesses very faint and strongly absorbed TMC objects. We find a detection rate of 85% and 98% for classical and weak-line T Tau stars (CTTS resp. WTTS), and identify about half of the surveyed protostars and brown dwarfs. Overall, 136 out of 169 surveyed stellar systems are detected. We describe an X-ray luminosity vs. mass correlation, discuss the distribution of X-ray-to-bolometric luminosity ratios, and show evidence for lower X-ray luminosities in CTTS compared to WTTS. Detailed analysis (e.g., variability, rotation-activity relations, influence of accretion on X-rays) will be discussed in a series of accompanying papers.

Guedel, M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Conceptual Approach to Assimilating Remote Sensing Data to Improve Soil Moisture Profile Estimates in a Surface Flux/Hydrology Model: Overview - Part 1

Knowledge of the amount of water in the soil is of great importance to many earth science disciplines. Soil moisture is a key variable in controlling the exchange of water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. Thus, soil moisture information is valuable in a wide range of applications including weather and climate, runoff potential and flood control, early warning of droughts, irrigation, crop yield forecasting, soil erosion, reservoir management, geotechnical engineering, and water quality. Despite the importance of soil moisture information, widespread and continuous measurements of soil moisture are not possible today. Although many earth surface conditions can be measured from satellites, we still cannot adequately measure soil moisture from space. Research in soil moisture remote sensing began in the mid 1970s shortly after the surge in satellite development. Recent advances in remote sensing have shown that soil moisture can be measured, at least qualitatively, by several methods. Quantitative measurements of moisture in the soil surface layer have been most successful using both passive and active microwave remote sensing, although complications arise from surface roughness and vegetation type and density. Early attempts to measure soil moisture from space-borne microwave instruments were hindered by what is now considered sub-optimal wavelengths (shorter than 5 cm) and the coarse spatial resolution of the measurements. L-band frequencies between 1 and 3 GHz (10-30 cm) have been deemed optimal for detection of soil moisture in the upper few centimeters of soil. The Electronically Steered Thinned Array Radiometer (ESTAR), an aircraft-based instrument operating a 1,4 GHz, has shown great promise for soil moisture determination. Initiatives are underway to develop a similar instrument for space. Existing space-borne synthetic aperture radars (SARS) operating at C- and L-band have also shown some potential to detect surface wetness. The advantage of radar is its much higher resolution than passive microwave systems, but it is currently hampered by surface roughness effects and the lack of a good algorithm based on a single frequency and single polarization. In addition, its repeat frequency is generally low (about 40 days). In the meantime, two new radiometers offer some hope for remote sensing of soil moisture from space. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), launched in November 1997, possesses a 10.65 GHz channel and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) on both the ADEOS-11 and Earth Observing System AM-1 platforms to be launched in 1999 possesses a 6.9 GHz channel. Aside from issues about interference from vegetation, the coarse resolution of these data will provide considerable challenges pertaining to their application. The resolution of TMI is about 45 km and that of AMSR is about 70 km. These resolutions are grossly inconsistent with the scale of soil moisture processes and the spatial variability of factors that control soil moisture. Scale disparities such as these are forcing us to rethink how we assimilate data of various scales in hydrologic models. Of particular interest is how to assimilate soil moisture data by reconciling the scale disparity between what we can expect from present and future remote sensing measurements of soil moisture and modeling soil moisture processes. It is because of this disparity between the resolution of space-based sensors and the scale of data needed for capturing the spatial variability of soil moisture and related properties that remote sensing of soil moisture has not met with more widespread success. Within a single footprint of current sensors at the wavelengths optimal for this application, in most cases there is enormous heterogeneity in soil moisture created by differences in landcover, soils and topography, as well as variability in antecedent precipitation. It is difficult to interpret the meaning of 'mean' soil moisture under such conditions and even more difficult to apply such a value. Because of the non-linear relationships between near-surface soil moisture and other variables of interest, such as surface energy fluxes and runoff, mean soil moisture has little applicability at such large scales. It is for these reasons that the use of remote sensing in conjunction with a hydrologic model appears to be of benefit in capturing the complete spatial and temporal structure of soil moisture. This paper is Part I of a four-part series describing a method for intermittently assimilating remotely-sensed soil moisture information to improve performance of a distributed land surface hydrology model. The method, summarized in section II, involves the following components, each of which is detailed in the indicated section of the paper or subsequent papers in this series: Forward radiative transfer model methods (section II and Part IV); Use of a Kalman filter to assimilate remotely-sensed soil moisture estimates with the model profile (section II and Part IV); Application of a soil hydrology model to capture the continuous evolution of the soil moisture profile within and below the root zone (section III); Statistical aggregation techniques (section IV and Part II); Disaggregation techniques using a neural network approach (section IV and Part III); and Maximum likelihood and Bayesian algorithms for inversely solving for the soil moisture profile in the upper few cm (Part IV).

Crosson, William L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A lightweight, user-configurable detector ASIC digital architecture with on-chip data compression for MHz X-ray coherent diffraction imaging

Today, most X-ray pixel detectors used at light sources transmit raw pixel data off the detector ASIC. With the availability of more advanced ASIC technology nodes for scientific application, more digital functionalities from the computing domains (e.g., compression) can be integrated directly into a detector ASIC to increase data velocity. In this paper, we describe a lightweight, user-configurable detector ASIC digital architecture with on-chip compression which can be implemented in 130 nm technologies in a reasonable area on the ASIC periphery. In addition, we present a design to efficiently handle the variable data from the stream of parallel compressors. The architecture includes user-selectable lossy and lossless compression blocks. The impact of lossy compression algorithms is evaluated on simulated and experimental X-ray ptychography datasets. This architecture is a practical approach to increase pixel detector frame rates towards the continuous 1 MHz regime for not only coherent imaging techniques such as ptychography, but also for other diffraction techniques at X-ray light sources.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observations of Aerosol, Cloud, Turbulence, and Radiation Properties at the Top of the Marine Boundary Layer over the Eastern North Atlantic Ocean: The ACORES Campaign

We report on the Azores Stratocumulus Measurements of Radiation, Turbulence and Aerosols (ACORES) campaign, which took place around Graciosa and Pico Islands/Azores in July 2017. The main objective was to investigate the vertical distribution of aerosol particles, stratocumulus microphysical and radiative properties, and turbulence parameters in the eastern North Atlantic. The vertical exchange of mass, momentum, and energy between the free troposphere (FT) and the cloudy marine boundary layer (MBL) was explored over a range of scales from submeters to kilometers. To cover these spatial scales with appropriate measurements, helicopter-borne observations with unprecedented high resolution were realized using the Airborne Cloud Turbulence Observation System (ACTOS) and Spectral Modular Airborne Radiation Measurement System–Helicopter-Borne Observations (SMART-HELIOS) instrumental payloads. Here, the helicopter-borne observations were combined with ground-based aerosol measurements collected at two continuously running field stations on Pico Mountain (2,225 m above sea level, in the FT), and at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) station on Graciosa (at sea level). First findings from the ACORES observations we are discussing in the paper are as follows: (i) we have observed a high variability of the turbulent cloud-top structure on horizontal scales below 100 m with local temperature gradients of up to 4 K over less than 1 m vertical distance, (ii) we have collected strictly collocated radiation measurements supporting the relevance of small-scale processes by revealing significant inhomogeneities in cloud-top brightness temperature to scales well below 100 m, and (iii) we have concluded that aerosol properties are completely different in the MBL and FT with often-complex stratification and frequently observed burst-like new particle formation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Differential Credibility of Climate Modes in CMIP6

This work quantitatively evaluates the fidelity with which the northern annular mode (NAM), southern annular mode (SAM), Pacific–North American pattern (PNA), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and the first-order mode interactions are represented in Earth system model (ESM) output from the CMIP6 archive. Several skill metrics are used as part of a differential credibility assessment (DCA) of both spatial and temporal characteristics of the modes across ESMs, ESM families, and specific ESM realizations relative to ERA5. The spatial patterns and probability distributions are generally well represented but skill scores that measure the degree to which the frequencies of maximum variance are captured are consistently lower for most ESMs and climate modes. Substantial variability in skill scores manifests across realizations from individual ESMs for the PNA and oceanic modes. Further, the ESMs consistently overestimate the strength of the NAM–PNA first-order interaction and underestimate the NAM–AMO connection. Furthermore, these results suggest that the choice of ESM and ESM realizations will continue to play a critical role in determining climate projections at the global and regional scale at least in the near term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Random Forest Modeling Strategies for Multi-Step Wind Speed Forecasting

Although the random forest (RF) model is a powerful machine learning tool that has been utilized in many wind speed/power forecasting studies, there has been no consensus on optimal RF modeling strategies. This study investigates three basic questions which aim to assist in the discernment and quantification of the effects of individual model properties, namely: (1) using a standalone RF model versus using RF as a correction mechanism for the persistence approach, (2) utilizing a recursive versus direct multi-step forecasting strategy, and (3) training data availability on model forecasting accuracy from one to six hours ahead. These questions are investigated utilizing data from the FINO1 offshore platform and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) C1 site, and testing results are compared to the persistence method. At FINO1, due to the presence of multiple wind farms and high inter-annual variability, RF is more effective as an error-correction mechanism for the persistence approach. The direct forecasting strategy is seen to slightly outperform the recursive strategy, specifically for forecasts three or more steps ahead. Finally, increased data availability (up to ~8 equivalent years of hourly training data) appears to continually improve forecasting accuracy, although changing environmental flow patterns have the potential to negate such improvement. We hope that the findings of this study will assist future researchers and industry professionals to construct accurate, reliable RF models for wind speed forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The characteristics of atmospheric boundary layer height over the Arctic Ocean during MOSAiC

The important roles that the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) plays in the central Arctic climate system have been recognized, but the atmospheric boundary layer height (ABLH), defined as the layer of continuous turbulence adjacent to the surface, has rarely been investigated. Using a year-round radiosonde dataset during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, we improve a Richardson-number-based algorithm that takes cloud effects into consideration and subsequently analyze the characteristics and variability of the ABLH over the Arctic Ocean. The results reveal that the annual cycle is clearly characterized by a distinct peak in May and two respective minima in January and July. This annual variation in the ABLH is primarily controlled by the evolution of the ABL thermal structure. Temperature inversions in the winter and summer are intensified by seasonal radiative cooling and warm-air advection with the surface temperature constrained by melting, respectively, leading to the low ABLH at these times. Meteorological and turbulence variables also play a significant role in ABLH variation, including the near-surface potential temperature gradient, friction velocity, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation rate. In addition, the MOSAiC ABLH is more suppressed than the ABLH during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment in the summer, which indicates that there is large variability in the Arctic ABL structure during the summer melting season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗