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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

A Methodology for Dynamic Security Risk Quantification and Optimal Resource Allocation of Security Assets

In this presentation we overview a methodology for dynamic security risk quantification and optimal resource allocation of security assets for high profile venues. This methodology is especially applicable to venues that require security screening operations such as mass transit (e.g., train or airport terminals), critical infrastructure protection (e.g., government buildings), and largescale public events (e.g., concerts or professional sports). The method starts by decomposing the three core components of risk -- threat, vulnerability, and consequence -- into their various subcomponents. For instance, vulnerability can be decomposed into availability, accessibility, organic security, and target hardness and each of these can be evaluated against the potential threats of interest for the given venue. Once evaluated, these subcomponents are rolled back up to compute the specific value for the vulnerability core risk component. Likewise, the same is done for consequence and threat, and then risk is computed as the product of these three components. A key aspect of our methodology is dynamically quantifying risk. That is, we incorporate the ability to uniquely allow the subcomponents and core components, and in turn, risk, to be quantified as a continuous function of time throughout the day, week, month, or year as appropriate.

Brigantic, Robert T.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Framework and methodology for supply chain lifecycle analytics

The various technologies presented herein relate to pertaining to identifying and mitigating risks and attacks on a supply chain. A computer-implemented representation of a supply chain is generated comprising nodes (locations) and edges (objects, information). Risk to attack and different attack vectors can be defined for the various nodes and edges, and further, based upon the risks and attacks, (difficulty, consequence) pairs can be determined. One or more mitigations can be generated to increase a difficulty of attack and/or reduce consequence of an attack. The one or more mitigations can be constrained, e.g., by cost, time, etc., to facilitate determination of how feasible a respective mitigation is to implement with regard to finances available, duration to implement, etc. A context-free grammar can be utilized to identify one or more attacks in the supply chain. Further, the risks can undergo a ranking to enable mitigation priority to be determined.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Soiling Related Abrasion and the Development of a PV Abrasion Standard

The natural soiling and consequent cleaning of photovoltaic (PV) modules result in abrasion damage to the cover glass. The durability of the front glass has important economic consequences, including the use of antireflective and/or antisoiling coatings as well as the method and frequency of cleaning-maintenance. The abrasion of glass and coated glass has been explored in a field study, including the soiling-prone locations of: Dubai (United Arab Emirates), Kuwait city (Kuwait), Mesa (Arizona), Mumbai (India), and Sacramento (California). Dry brush cleaned specimens will be compared to those subject to artificial brush testing or falling sand abrasion. The characteristics of material integrity, optical transmittance, surface energy, surface roughness, and scratch size were examined using an optical microscope, spectrophotometer, contact goniometer (for water), interferometer, and atomic force microscope, respectively. The findings of this study will be used to provide feedback regarding the cleaning equipment, cleaning methods, and coatings used in the PV industry. The study here will also be used to aid the development of an abrasion standard for the PV industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Safety Analysis Challenges With Restart of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Facility

Safety Analysis Challenges With Restart of the Idaho National Laboratory Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Facility Dr. James Parry David Broussard Anthony LaPorta Douglas Gerstner Battelle Energy Alliance Idaho National Laboratory P.O. Box 1625/MS6194 Idaho Falls, ID 83415 The Transient Reactor Test Facility, commonly referred to as TREAT, is an air-cooled, thermal spectrum test reactor facility designed to: • Induce intense fission heating in the nuclear fuel being tested. • Test nuclear reactor fuels under severe reactor-accident conditions. • Study fuel meltdowns, metal-water reactions, interactions between overheated fuel and coolant, and the transient behavior of fuels for high-temperature systems. • Provide nondestructive test data through neutron radiography of fuel samples. • Allow for the detailed monitoring of the experiments during the test. TREAT was specifically designed to test prototypic-sized reactor fuel pins and bundles under transient power conditions. During its 35 year operating history, it conducted thousands of transient experiments. Today, these capabilities are required for predicting safety margins for next generation fuels and advanced reactor design safety. Even though TREAT has not operated since 1994, return to operable conditions and resumption of testing will occur in FY 2018. This paper discusses the unique challenges with performing and documenting the safety analyses that demonstrate that the TREAT restart may be performed safely. This includes a discussion of 1) the TREAT capability, design, and operations, 2) identification of the format and content of the required safety basis document changes, and 3) demonstration that the consequences of potential accidents during TREAT operations meet the consequence guidelines.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Reactor Safety Technologies Pathway Technical Program Plan

In the aftermath of the March 2011 multi-unit accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (Fukushima), the nuclear community has been reassessing certain safety assumptions about nuclear reactor plant design, operations and emergency actions, particularly with respect to extreme events that might occur and that are beyond each plant’s current design basis. Because of our significant domestic investment in nuclear reactor technology (99 operating reactors in the fleet of commercial LWRs with five under construction), the United States has been a major leader internationally in these activities. The U.S. nuclear industry is voluntarily pursuing a number of additional safety initiatives. The NRC continues to evaluate and, where deemed appropriate, establish new requirements for ensuring adequate protection of public health and safety in the occurrence of low probability events at nuclear plants; (e.g., mitigation strategies for beyond design basis events initiated by external events like seismic or flooding initiators). The DOE has also played a major role in the U.S. response to the Fukushima accident. Initially, DOE worked with the Japanese and the international community to help develop a more complete understanding of the Fukushima accident progression and its consequences, and to respond to various safety concerns emerging from uncertainties about the nature of and the effects from the accident. DOE R&D activities are focused on providing scientific and technical insights, data, analyses methods that ultimately support industry efforts to enhance safety. These activities are expected to further enhance the safety performance of currently operating U.S. nuclear power plants as well as better characterize the safety performance of future U.S. plants. In pursuing this area of R&D, DOE recognizes that the commercial nuclear industry is ultimately responsible for the safe operation of licensed nuclear facilities. As such, industry is considered the primary “end user” of the results from this DOE-sponsored work. The response to the Fukushima accident has been global, and there is a continuing multinational interest in collaborations to better quantify accident consequences and to incorporate lessons learned from the accident. DOE will continue to seek opportunities to facilitate collaborations that are of value to the U.S. industry, particularly where the collaboration provides access to vital data from the accident or otherwise supports or leverages other important R&D work. The purpose of the Reactor Safety Technology R&D is to improve understanding of beyond design basis events and reduce uncertainty in severe accident progression, phenomenology, and outcomes using existing analytical codes and information gleaned from severe accidents, in particular the Fukushima Daiichi events. This information will be used to aid in developing mitigating strategies and improving severe accident management guidelines for the current light water reactor fleet.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Comparison of Mesoscale Model Setups for Offshore Wind Resource Assessment: A New Jersey Case Study

As the offshore wind energy industry begins to emerge on the U.S. northeast coast, there is an urgent need for an accurate characterization of the offshore wind resource. The offshore regime features various resource characteristics not seen onshore, including frequent coastal low-level jets, non-steady surface conditions (e.g. waves), complex air-sea and land-sea interactions, and coastal mesoscale circulations (e.g. sea breeze). An accurate characterization of these phenomena in mesoscale models is critical to support accurate energy production estimates and forecasting for future offshore wind farms. However, a robust validation of mesoscale model performance in the offshore U.S. has been limited due to sparse data and difficulty obtaining offshore measurements. Consequently, it is unclear how mesoscale models perform offshore and which suite of parameterizations and input data are best suited for accurate resource characterization. To begin addressing this knowledge gap, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, in collaboration with the Rutgers Center for Ocean Observing Leadership, conducted a mesoscale model validation campaign in the offshore environment. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was assessed and the New Jersey offshore coastal area served as the validation domain. An ensemble of WRF simulations conducted over a one-year period sampled from a range of model setups, including different reanalysis and forecast data inputs, sea surface temperature data inputs, planetary boundary layer parameterizations, and WRF versions. The performance of each ensemble member was validated against a network of observations including offshore floating lidars, coastal met towers, offshore platform measurements, and offshore buoys. Model performance was assessed on annual, seasonal, and diurnal scales with particular emphasis on the vertical wind speed profile and temperature stratification. Preliminary results from this validation work will be presented here. The key WRF inputs and parameters driving changes in the modeled wind resource will be discussed and preliminary recommendations on WRF setups for offshore wind resource modeling will be proposed. The application of this validation exercise to other proposed offshore wind energy areas in the U.S. will also be discussed. mesoscale circulations (e.g. sea breeze). An accurate characterization of these phenomena in mesoscale models is critical to support accurate energy production estimates and forecasting for future offshore wind farms. However, a robust validation of mesoscale model performance in the offshore U.S. has been limited due to sparse data and difficulty obtaining offshore measurements. Consequently, it is unclear how mesoscale models perform offshore and which suite of parameterizations and input data are best suited for accurate resource characterization. To begin addressing this knowledge gap, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, in collaboration with the Rutgers Center for Ocean Observing Leadership, conducted a mesoscale model validation campaign in the offshore environment. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was assessed and the New Jersey offshore coastal area served as the validation domain. An ensemble of WRF simulations conducted over a one-year period sampled from a range of model setups, including different reanalysis and forecast data inputs, sea surface temperature data inputs, planetary boundary layer parameterizations, and WRF versions. The performance of each ensemble member was validated against a network of observations including offshore floating lidars, coastal met towers, offshore platform measurements, and offshore buoys. Model performance was assessed on annual, seasonal, and diurnal scales with particular emphasis on the vertical wind speed profile and temperature stratification. Preliminary results from this validation work will be presented here. The key WRF inputs and parameters driving changes in the modeled wind resource will be discussed and preliminary recommendations on WRF setups for offshore wind resource modeling will be proposed. The application of this validation exercise to other proposed offshore wind energy areas in the U.S. will also be discussed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Effects of Plate Curvature on Thermo-Mechanical Performance of U-10Mo Monolithic Fuel Plates

Monolithic fuel is a candidate fuel form being considered for the conversion of high-performance research reactors. This plate-type fuel consists of a high-density, U-Mo fuel in a monolithic form that is sandwiched between zirconium diffusion barriers, and encapsulated in an aluminum cladding. To date, large number of plates have been irradiated with satisfactory performance. The program is now moving into the qualification phase, a predecessor to the timely conversion of the target reactors. Since each reactor employs distinct fuel plate geometries for various consideration, resulting nearly 50 distinct plate geometries with unique plate design features, a single “generic” plate geometry capturing all of the extremities is not achievable. This limitation consequently requires much more cautious performance evaluations, as thermal and mechanical response of a plate with certain geometry may not be representative for a plate with a different geometry. To evaluate the performance of the plates for various geometric parameters, parametric sensitives studies have been employed. One of the important geometric parameters may have potential effects on the performance is the plate curvature. In this study, curved-plates were parametrically simulated to investigate if this geometric parameter has any effects on overall performance, In particular, radius of curvatures of the plates were varied between the bounding values, and the plates were simulated for comparable irradiation histories. The resulted temperature, deformation, stress-strain results were comparatively evaluated. The results have indicated that preferential deformations occur. This consequently caused shifting of plate centerline on curved plates. The magnitude of centerline shifts increased with increasing plate curvatures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Effects of Plate Curvature on Thermo-Mechanical Performance of U-10Mo Monolithic Fuel Plates

Monolithic fuel is a candidate fuel form being considered for the conversion of high-performance research reactors. This plate-type fuel consists of a high-density, U-Mo fuel in a monolithic form that is sandwiched between zirconium diffusion barriers, and encapsulated in an aluminum cladding. To date, large number of plates have been irradiated with satisfactory performance. The program is now moving into the qualification phase, a predecessor to the timely conversion of the target reactors. Since each reactor employs distinct fuel plate geometries for various consideration, resulting nearly 50 distinct plate geometries with unique plate design features, a single “generic” plate geometry capturing all of the extremities is not achievable. This limitation consequently requires much more cautious performance evaluations, as thermal and mechanical response of a plate with certain geometry may not be representative for a plate with a different geometry. To evaluate the performance of the plates for various geometric parameters, parametric sensitives studies have been employed. One of the important geometric parameters may have potential effects on the performance is the plate curvature. In this study, curved-plates were parametrically simulated to investigate if this geometric parameter has any effects on overall performance, In particular, radius of curvatures of the plates were varied between the bounding values, and the plates were simulated for comparable irradiation histories. The resulted temperature, deformation, stress-strain results were comparatively evaluated. The results have indicated that preferential deformations occur. This consequently caused shifting of plate centerline on curved plates. The magnitude of centerline shifts increased with increasing plate curvatures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Re-Evaluating the Current Safety Goals

The Safety Goals adopted by the US NRC consist of two qualitative safety goals (QSGs) backed up by two quantitative health objectives (QHOs). The QHOs establish risk limits for severe accidents in terms of their radiological consequences, in particular, the average individual health risks of early fatality and latent cancers from radiation exposure of members of the public living in the vicinity of a nuclear power plant. This paper is devoted to a re-examination of the coverage of the current safety goals in evaluating the actual risk posed by nuclear power plant operation. Experience of recent Level 3 PRAs suggests that given a high likelihood of evacuation of the close-in population before any release occurs, the current QHOs are satisfied by large margins. However, the experience of an actual severe accident at Fukushima showed that actual human health effects from released radiation were not the dominant consequences; there were no early fatalities and no measurable increases expected in cancer rates above the baseline rates in the Japanese population. Hence, regardless of accident probability, Fukushima-type accidents would satisfy the NRC’s health-related safety goals. However, there were very significant societal costs, in that large numbers of people were relocated for long periods. We argue that, in addition to the risks addressed in current safety goals, societal risk should also be evaluated. The paper discusses specific possibilities for a goal and an associated quantitative objective.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A PROVEN APPROACH FOR EFFECTIVE COMPUTER SECURITY SELF-ASSESSMENTS AT NUCLEAR FACILITIES

A proven method for conducting cybersecurity self-assessments at nuclear power plants is now available for international use. This method was originally developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, under the sponsorship of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), for use at U.S. nuclear power plants. The “Method,” described in NUREG/CR-6847 “Cyber Security Self-Assessment Method for U.S. Nuclear Power Plants,” was originally a limited release document that was withheld from public disclosure but is now publicly available. The Method provides a systematic, phased, and risk-informed approach to help decision makers and security specialists understand their relative cybersecurity posture. Completed Method assessments may be used to support or validate selection of computer security controls to mitigate cyber threats as well as demonstrate compliance with regulations or statutes enacted by competent authorities. The Method assesses the cybersecurity posture of key systems at a nuclear facility with a focus on protection of design base functions. It considers both physical and digital elements of system vulnerabilities and the resulting potential consequences from exploitation. It is well-suited for addressing blended cyberattacks. A semi-quantitative analytical approach is used in the evaluation of potential vulnerabilities, consequences, and risks and provides a technical basis for the selection of security controls to mitigate cyberattacks. The Method’s application at U.S. nuclear power plants has been very encouraging. The only nuclear plant in the United States that did not have adverse findings during its initial NRC computer security inspection prepared for inspection through the diligent application of this self-assessment method and the implementation of recommendations that came out of that self-assessment. Nuclear facilities around the world might find application of the Method extremely helpful for making cost-effective, risk-based decisions regarding computer security and for preparing to pass computer security inspections by their competent authorities.

Cyber security, Nuclear security, Self-assessment↗
DOE OSTI2018

Hydropower Operations in the Colorado River Basin: Institutional Analysis of Opportunities and Constraints

The Colorado River Basin is facing an unprecedented drought. In ongoing drought management efforts, limited attention has been paid to hydropower generation. While some studies do exist on hydropower, they are quantitative in nature and focus on calculating the reduction in megawatts generated at dams in the Basin with declining water availability. These studies simplify the complex process of hydropower generation; water availability is but one factor that impacts hydropower generation. At a more fundamental level, formal institutional arrangements, that is, laws, policies, and rules create the framework within which dams are operated and hydropower is generated. This paper conducts a comparative institutional analysis of water, environment, and energy laws and policies and changes therein to understand the constraints and opportunities faced by hydropower generation in the Colorado River Basin. To tease out the nuances in how institutional arrangements affect dam operations and hydropower generation, the comparative analysis focuses on the two largest and strategically important dams in the Basin: Hoover and Glen Canyon. This paper uses Elinor Ostrom’s Institutional Analysis and Development Framework to analyze laws and policies at three levels: constitutional-choice, collective-choice, and operational levels. Constitutional-choice level laws and policies apply to the entire Basin, whereas collective-choice level and operational level laws and policies are dam specific. Hoover and Glen Canyon Dams face similar biophysical challenges by the virtue of their location in the same river basin. Yet, despite the similarity in the biophysical setting, the analysis in this study finds that the differences in the applicability of constitutional-choice level laws along with the differences in dam specific collective-choice and operational level institutional arrangements produce a distinct set of constraints for hydropower generation at Hoover and Glen Canyon Dams. Even without a drought, water and environmental laws at both the constitutionalchoice and collective-choice levels as well as power contracts constrain hydropower generation and limit the flexibility with which Glen Canyon Dam can be operated. Water and environmental laws also impose specific water release requirements that, at times, require off-peak power generation at Glen Canyon Dam. On the other hand, even with a drought, Hoover Dam faces limited hydropower generation constraints and can operate flexibly. This is because constitutional-choice level laws and dam-specific collective-choice and operational level laws pose limited constraints for flexible daily operations at Hoover. The result is that Hoover Dam can generate hydropower at the same level as it did three decades ago and operate flexibly to provide ancillary services and peaking generation. While water and environmental laws and policies pose constraints for hydropower generation, the analysis in this study further finds that specific historic provisions within energyrelated institutional arrangements and recent changes within power contracts have maintained and even enhanced the value of hydropower to power customers. Historic institutional provisions ensure that hydropower is sold ‘at cost’ making this resource economically competitive with wholesale electricity market rates. Recent power contract modifications have resulted in the amendment of an older resale prohibition clause to expand the flexibility available to power customers in using their capacity and/or energy allocation in RTOs, ISOs, and bulk power markets. This amendment has opened up an opportunity for customers, especially Hoover power customers, to use flexible generation and ancillary services in a market environment. In addition, the extension of power contract duration to the legally maximum term has enhanced the reliability and stability of this resource for customers. In the Colorado River Basin, despite the enduring economic responsibility of power customers—where laws require customers to pay for a large portion of construction and O&M costs whether or not they actually receive hydropower— the persistent threat of a drought-induced water shortage, and constraints imposed by water and environmental laws and policies, power customers continue to invest in this resource as energy-related institutional arrangements and power contract provisions protect the reasons why they value hydropower. Lastly, the analysis in this study finds that the consequences of changes in hydropower generation for energy users, irrigators, and environmental programs in the Basin depend on how specific institutional arrangements tie electricity revenues to irrigation aid and environmental programs, and how the power contracts themselves are set up. Collective-choice level institutional arrangements create a higher level of financial dependency of irrigation aid and environmental programs on electricity revenues in the Upper Basin—the legal subdivision of Colorado River where Glen Canyon Dam is located—compared to the Lower Basin—the legal subdivision of Colorado River where Hoover Dam is located. Therefore, changes in hydropower generation or the way its revenue is collected and used will have far reacting detrimental consequences for the Upper Basin. Likewise, differences in the nature of power contracts for Glen Canyon and Hoover Dams also creates differences in the financial impact incurred by energy users when there is a reduction in hydropower generation. While this study identifies the types of impacts on resource users as a result of specific institutional arrangements, the calculation of extent of impact warrants further attention. Hydropower in the United States is in a unique position today. The strategic importance of this resource for the nation’s electricity sector is rapidly growing even as its contribution to overall electricity generation remains fairly small. This strategic importance, however, is built hydropower’s ability to operate flexibly in order to support the integration of intermittent renewable generating sources and the expansion of electricity markets. As this study shows, such flexibility may not be available at certain plants not due to the lack of water availability but because of institutional constraints. Institutional arrangements may also require dam operators to first consider high priority water uses (such as irrigation or environmental needs), which in turn may limit the ability to generate hydropower when it is most valuable or useful. Engineering and quantitative models, such as production cost models, recognize policy constraints for hydropower operations but often inadequately capture or assume away such constraints in the models. A failure to account for policy constraints in these models runs the risk of inaccurate representation of the operational flexibility and capacity available at specific hydropower plants, which can result in over/underestimation of hydropower’s ability to support the integration of variable renewable resources and address grid reliability concerns. Against this background, this paper and the analysis herein serves as an example of how we can systematically identify institutional constraints (and opportunities) that influence the flexibility in not only generating electricity at specific dams but also using this hydropower once it is generated.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Excitons in two-dimensional metal-halide perovskites

Georgia Tech School of Chemistry and Biochemistry Special Summer Seminar Series, Prof Carlos Silva; While polarons --- charges bound to a lattice deformation induced by electron-phonon coupling --- are primary photoexcitations at room temperature in bulk metal-halide hybrid organic-inorganic perovskites (HOIP), excitons --- Coulomb-bound electron-hole pairs --- are the stable quasi-particles in their two-dimensional (2D) analogues. Here we address the fundamental question: are polaronic effects consequential for excitons in 2D-HIOPs? Based on our recent work, we argue that polaronic effects are manifested intrinsically in the exciton spectral structure, which is comprised of multiple non-degenerate resonances with constant inter-peak energy spacing. We highlight measurements of population and dephasing dynamics that point to the apparently deterministic role of polaronic effects in excitonic properties. We contend that an interplay of long-range and short-range exciton-lattice couplings give rise to exciton polarons, a character that fundamentally establishes their effective mass and radius, and consequently, their quantum dynamics. Given this complexity, a fundamentally far-reaching issue is how Coulomb-mediated many-body interactions---elastic scattering such as excitation-induced dephasing, inelastic exciton bimolecular scattering, and multi-exciton binding---depend upon the specific exciton-lattice coupling within the structured excitation lineshape. We measure the intrinsic and density-dependent exciton dephasing rates of the multiple excitons and their dependence on temperature by means of two-dimensional coherent excitation spectroscopy. We find that diverse excitons display distinct intrinsic dephasing rates mediated by phonon scattering involving different effective phonons, and contrasting rates of exciton-exciton elastic scattering. These findings establish specifically the consequence of distinct lattice dressing on exciton many-body quantum dynamics, which critically define fundamental optical properties that underpin photonics and quantum optoelectronics.

solar cells, metal-halide perovskites, excitons, p↗
DOE OSTI2020

Geothermal Sector Cybersecurity Vulnerability Assessment

A review of geothermal sector-specific cybersecurity vulnerabilities and risks (consequences) was conducted at the request of the Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO). The vulnerabilities and risks reviewed in this study have relevance to achieving the 2019 GeoVision Report (DOE GTO 2019) technological advancements and expected sector growth. The study offers areas for consideration but does not quantify the likelihood (frequency) of the consequences. This cybersecurity analysis project represents a proactive effort to identify areas to enhance cybersecurity in geothermal development and operations. It was not initiated to address any immediate threat or specific known risk. Of the eight identified vulnerabilities analyzed, the review identified reservoir data system monitoring as one that is unique to geothermal systems and may warrant further investigation to better understand risk and mitigation. A detailed analysis of the other vulnerabilities may highlight additional uniqueness relative to other industries. Further research actions are recommended to better quantify risk and enhance cybersecurity preparedness of the sector. As the geothermal industry grows, the cybersecurity strategies to be deployed will be of increasing importance to ensure resilient, reliable, and secure clean energy for years to come.

cyber-physical security↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Potential for Inadvertent Human Intrusion at the Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Sites on the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

This paper recommends an approach to inadvertent human intrusion (IHI) at the Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Sites (RWMSs) on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). IHI analysis uses the consequences of an individual inadvertently contacting buried waste to set waste concentration limits for near-surface disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW). Regulatory agencies are increasingly applying risk-informed decision-making to LLW waste management (NRC 2006). Risk-informed decision-making combines scientific risk assessment with stakeholder values and perceptions to determine a level of acceptable risk. Risk considers not only the consequences of an event, but also its probability of occurring.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adapting Existing Energy Models for Resilience Analysis

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result of the growing interest in energy sector resilience, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate resilience indicators and metrics, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. A necessary focus of the research community lies in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing these challenges that need to be addressed, we explore how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes—including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences—based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches. To demonstrate the importance of perspective, we selected models that represent different segments of the energy sector, geographic scales, and modeling approaches. A second important aspect of our effort was the development of generalized power interruption scenarios. These scenarios were intended to help establish a framework for simulating the effects of real-world threats in terms of their impacts on system components and, in turn, power interruption.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Trial Implementation of the High-Impact, Low-Frequency Power Grid Event Risk Framework to Support Informed Decision-Making

In 2015, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) developed a multi-hazard risk-assessment framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency (HILF) power grid events to support risk-informed decisions for power grid management and emergency planning. The identified framework elements are based on a systematic and comprehensive characterization of hazards to the level of detail required for modeling risk. In 2016, PNNL performed a trial implementation of the framework for a single hazard category and a set of key power grid asset types as a way to test the framework. A specific realization of a HILF event is referred to as an initiating event, or initiator. An initiating event is the manifestation of a hazard, and can be, for example, an earthquake of specified magnitude at a specified epicenter. Other examples of HILF events include geomagnetic disturbances and pandemics. For this test implementation, grid assets of a benchmark power system transmission network were assigned proxy geographical coordinates associated with Washington State locations; and real-world seismic hazard information was used for those locations. Based on the fragility of the grid assets to events of different severities, the set of possible failure scenarios (i.e., combinations of different asset failures) and their associated probabilities were determined, and recovery of grid assets and restoration of the network were considered. These combinations of failures and their subsequent recovery constitute a HILF event sequence that results in a given level of consequence, such as loss of power over a given geographic area for a given duration. The concurrent quantitative consideration of event probabilities and event consequences characterizes a risk model. For HILF event sequences, risk was expressed as expected unserved energy per year. This implementation demonstrates the feasibility and value of using the HILF event risk framework despite some of the identified challenges. This report discusses this trial implementation and presents risk results and insights from the implementation.

Veeramany, Arun↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantitative Risk Analysis of High Safety Significant Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants using IRADIC Technology

This report documents the activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2021 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) Risk Assessment project. In FY-2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a strong technical basis to support effective, licensable, and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. An integrated risk assessment technology for the DI&C systems (IRADIC technology) was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate risk-informed capability to quantitatively and accurately estimate the safety margin obtained from plant modernization, especially for the High Safety Significant Safety-related (HSSSR) DI&C systems, (2) develop an advanced risk assessment technology to support transition from analog to DI&C technologies for nuclear industry, (3) assure the long-term safety and reliability of vital HSSSR DI&C systems, (4) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals and deal with the expensive licensing justifications from regulatory insights, the IRADIC technology is instructive for nuclear vendors and utilities to effectively lower the costs associated with digital compliance and speed industry advances by: (1) defining an integrated risk-informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade, including hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying systematic and risk-informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify responding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the individual level, system level, and plant level, (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks; thus, to support the development, licensing, and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies on nuclear power plant (NPPs). In this report, an approach for performing software CCF analysis, given limited data, is developed and demonstrated using a case study of a highly redundant digital reactor trip system. Consequence analysis is also performed based on different accident scenarios. Results indicate that plant modernization including the improvement of HSSSR DI&C systems will make great benefits to plant safety by providing more safety margins to accident management. In addition, a novel approach is proposed in this report for the quantification of software hazards when sufficient operational and testing data available. The method incorporates software development quality as well as strong analysis techniques to identify and link software defects to potential failure modes. The approach includes both semantic and test-based analysis to detect failures that can exist in different stages of the software development life cycle. This method is applied to an advanced human system interface relevant to reactor trip safety developed from the APR 1400 design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Failure Mechanism Traceability and Application in Human System Interface of Nuclear Power Plants using RESHA

In recent years, there has been considerable effort to modernize existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C). However, there has also been considerable concern both by industry and regulatory bodies for the risk and consequence analysis of these systems. Of particular concern are digital common cause failures (CCFs) specifically related to software defects. These “misbehaviors” by the software can occur in both the control and monitoring of a system. While many new methods have been proposed to identify potential software failure modes, such as Systems-theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), etc., these methods are focused primarily on the control action pathway of a system. In contrast, the information feedback pathway lacks unsafe control actions (UCAs), which are typically related to software basic events; thus, assessment of software basic events in such systems is unclear. In this work, we present the idea of intermediate processors and unsafe information flow (UIF) to help safety analysts trace failure mechanisms in the feedback pathway and how they can be integrated into a fault tree for improved assessment capability. The concepts presented are demonstrated in two comprehensive case studies, a smart sensor integrated platform for unmanned autonomous vehicles and another on a representative advanced human system interface (HSI) for safety critical plant monitoring. The qualitative software basic events are identified, and a fault tree analysis is conducted based on a modified Redundancy-guided Systems-theoretic Hazard Analysis (RESHA) methodology. The case studies demonstrate the use of UIF and intermediate processors in the fault tree to improve traceability of software failures in highly complex digital instrumentation feedback. The improved method can also clarify fault tree construction when multiple component dependencies are present in the system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗