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Cognition and procedure representational requirements for predictive human performance models

Models and modeling environments for human performance are becoming significant contributors to early system design and analysis procedures. Issues of levels of automation, physical environment, informational environment, and manning requirements are being addressed by such man/machine analysis systems. The research reported here investigates the close interaction between models of human cognition and models that described procedural performance. We describe a methodology for the decomposition of aircrew procedures that supports interaction with models of cognition on the basis of procedures observed; that serves to identify cockpit/avionics information sources and crew information requirements; and that provides the structure to support methods for function allocation among crew and aiding systems. Our approach is to develop an object-oriented, modular, executable software representation of the aircrew, the aircraft, and the procedures necessary to satisfy flight-phase goals. We then encode in a time-based language, taxonomies of the conceptual, relational, and procedural constraints among the cockpit avionics and control system and the aircrew. We have designed and implemented a goals/procedures hierarchic representation sufficient to describe procedural flow in the cockpit. We then execute the procedural representation in simulation software and calculate the values of the flight instruments, aircraft state variables and crew resources using the constraints available from the relationship taxonomies. The system provides a flexible, extensible, manipulative and executable representation of aircrew and procedures that is generally applicable to crew/procedure task-analysis. The representation supports developed methods of intent inference, and is extensible to include issues of information requirements and functional allocation. We are attempting to link the procedural representation to models of cognitive functions to establish several intent inference methods including procedural backtracking with concurrent search, temporal reasoning, and constraint checking for partial ordering of procedures. Finally, the representation is being linked to models of human decision making processes that include heuristic, propositional and prescriptive judgement models that are sensitive to the procedural content in which the valuative functions are being performed.

Corker, K.↗

Produced Water-Economic, Socio, Environmental Simulation Model (PW-ESEim) Model: Proof-of-Concept for Southeastern New Mexico

A proof-of-concept tool, the Produced Water-Economic, Socio, Environmental Simulation model (PW-ESESim), was developed to support ease of analysis. The tool was designed to facilitate head-to-head comparison of alternative produced water source, treatment, and reuse water management strategies. A graphical user interface (GUI) guides the user through the selection and design of alternative produced water treatment and reuse strategies and the associated health and safety risk and economic benefits. At the highest conceptual level, alternative water strategies include the selection of a source water (locally or regionally available produced water), treatment strategy (pre-treatment, physical, chemical, biological, desalination, and post-treatment processes) and product water purpose (e.g., irrigation, industrial processing, environmental). After selection of these details, the PW-ESESim output a number of key economic, societal, environmental, public/ecological health and safety metrics to support user decision-making; specific examples include, cost of treatment, improvements in freshwater availability, human and ecologic health impacts and growth in local jobs and the economy. Through the simulation of different produced water treatment and management strategies, tradeoffs are identified and used to inform fit-for-purpose produced water treatment and reuse management decisions. While the tool was initially designed using Southeastern New Mexico (Permian Basin) as a case study, the general design of the PW-ESESim model can be extended to support other oil and gas regions of the U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Business Models for Scaling Demand Flexibility Volume IV – Program life cycle challenges and lessons learned from U.S. programs

Load growth at the grid edge is driving increased attention to the distribution system and its ability to enable customer technology adoption in an affordable and timely manner. Key industry stakeholders, including electric utilities and regulators, can benefit from strategies to manage and balance customer needs with infrastructure investments, such as demand flexibility. This report focuses on demand flexibility—the ability to reduce, shift, shed, generate, or modulate loads in response to building and grid needs—to reduce the need for costly grid upgrades by deferring investment needs and increase system reliability by shifting electricity usage during periods of high risk. Specifically, we focus on the emerging characteristics of business models for demand flexibility as a framework to understand how demand flexibility programs generate value. In this report, we focus on the life cycle of demand flexibility programs, which provides information on value creation and describes the various deployment phases program implementers navigate from initial program conceptualization through to program expansion and replication to new customer segments and regions. This report characterizes the key phases of the demand flexibility program life cycle, identifies existing challenges across the program deployment phases, and describes lessons learned. This report is part of a series that includes reports on customer relationship management strategies, stakeholder ecosystem management, and program life cycle.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Multi-kilowatt modularized spacecraft power processing system development

A review of existing information pertaining to spacecraft power processing systems and equipment was accomplished with a view towards applicability to the modularization of multi-kilowatt power processors. Power requirements for future spacecraft were determined from the NASA mission model-shuttle systems payload data study which provided the limits for modular power equipment capabilities. Three power processing systems were compared to evaluation criteria to select the system best suited for modularity. The shunt regulated direct energy transfer system was selected by this analysis for a conceptual design effort which produced equipment specifications, schematics, envelope drawings, and power module configurations.

Andrews, R. E.↗

Large Advanced Space Systems (LASS) computer-aided design program additions

The LSS preliminary and conceptual design requires extensive iteractive analysis because of the effects of structural, thermal, and control intercoupling. A computer aided design program that will permit integrating and interfacing of required large space system (LSS) analyses is discussed. The primary objective of this program is the implementation of modeling techniques and analysis algorithms that permit interactive design and tradeoff studies of LSS concepts. Eight software modules were added to the program. The existing rigid body controls module was modified to include solar pressure effects. The new model generator modules and appendage synthesizer module are integrated (interfaced) to permit interactive definition and generation of LSS concepts. The mass properties module permits interactive specification of discrete masses and their locations. The other modules permit interactive analysis of orbital transfer requirements, antenna primary beam n, and attitude control requirements.

Farrell, C. E.↗

Growth from a hypercooled melt near absolute stability

The stability of a solid-liquid interface in a hypercooled melt is studied, taking into account attachment kinetics, surface energy, and surface energy in the heat balance. There is a basic-state solution with the planar interface moving at constant speed. Linear-stability theory gives a long-wave absolute-stability limit. Near this point a string model is introduced in which a thermal-boundary-layer approximation is used and an evolution equation for the interface is obtained. In a limiting case this interface equation reduces to a Kuromoto-Sivashinsky equation. Comparison with experimental and numerical results are discussed, and a conceptual picture of unconstrained growth for all undercoolings is addressed.

Umantsev, A.↗

Space Solar Power Multi-body Dynamics and Controls, Concepts for the Integrated Symmetrical Concentrator Configuration

Orbiting space solar power systems are currently being investigated for possible flight in the time frame of 2015-2020 and later. Such space solar power (SSP) satellites are required to be extremely large in order to make practical the process of collection, conversion to microwave radiation, and reconversion to electrical power at earth stations or at remote locations in space. These large structures are expected to be very flexible presenting unique problems associated with their dynamics and control. The purpose of this project is to apply the expanded TREETOPS multi-body dynamics analysis computer simulation program (with expanded capabilities developed in the previous activity) to investigate the control problems associated with the integrated symmetrical concentrator (ISC) conceptual SSP system. SSP satellites are, as noted, large orbital systems having many bodies (perhaps hundreds) with flexible arrays operating in an orbiting environment where the non-uniform gravitational forces may be the major load producers on the structure so that a high fidelity gravity model is required. The current activity arises from our NRA8-23 SERT proposal. Funding, as a supplemental selection, has been provided by NASA with reduced scope from that originally proposed.

Glaese, John R.↗

Recommendations For Developing Space Suit Integrated Food Systems and Delivering Nutrition Before, During, and After Lunar Eva

INTRODUCTION Artemis missions will include a higher tempo and frequency of extravehicular activities (EVAs) than any previous space program. Because of the physical demands expected from the crew, future space suit designs are required to incorporate nutritional support to the astronauts during lunar surface EVAs lasting longer than 4 hours. The purpose of this project was to provide recommendations to aid the development of an in-suit system that can adequately, safely, and acceptably deliver nutrition to a crewmember while confined to a space suit during EVA. METHODS Physiological, logistical, and engineering aspects of potential in-suit nutrition approaches were assessed through literature reviews, assessments of commercial off the shelf (COTS) foods, suit volumetric modeling, and feedback from subject matter experts and crewmembers. Key driving factors in the development of in-suit nutrition requirements included how much and what type of nutrition should be included, what food formulations are appropriate and safe, what are inherent limitations of space suits, what are the potential risks to the crewmember in the suit, and what practices and preferences from astronauts should be considered. Design references were conceptualized and assessed for strengths and limitations as potential in-suit nutrition systems for surface EVA. RESULTS Acute exogenous energy demands vary greatly depending on activity intensity and duration, and partial energy replenishment (i.e., 60–80 kcal∙hr-1 of EVA, or 460–680 kcal for EVAs lasting up to 8 hours) during activities could improve performance, safety, and recovery. COTS foods capable of providing these energy requirements exist; however, no COTS foods have been identified that pass NASA flight standards for microbiological safety and stability. In-suit nutrition delivery design references that were considered included in-suit concepts for a prefilled drink bag, a hydratable drink bag, and a solid food stick. In addition, a helmet feed port concept was considered for use with drink bags external to the suit. Volumetric models of the in-suit drink bag concepts, based on xEMU dimensions, indicate challenges of fitting formulations > 200 ml (equating to approximately 200 kcal). Astronaut feedback on the four concepts indicated that despite some individual preferences for inclusion of solid foods and helmet port designs, the prefilled drink bag concept was the most preferred. A prefilled drink bag can only be used if food safety and stability can be ensured, possibly requiring advancements in food delivery hardware. CONCLUSION The ability to meet the increased need for nutrition during surface EVAs through provision of nutrients in the suited configuration would benefit overall crew health, performance, and morale, and thus increase the likelihood of mission success. It is recommended that in-suit nutrition capabilities provide at least 400–600 kcal within the suit during EVAs lasting > 4 hours and that suit designs include a dedicated volume for food grade nutrition systems. The developed food system should either allow for 1) installation of prefilled (sealed sterile) liquid nutrition in the suit and provide a mechanism to break the seal at the time that consumption is desired or 2) demonstrate that the unsealed food product shelf life allows for safe consumption after at least 12 hours of EVA.

E L Dillon↗

Recommendations for Developing Space Suit Integrated Food Systems and Delivering Nutrition Before, During, and After Lunar EVA

INTRODUCTION Artemis missions will include a higher tempo and frequency of extravehicular activities (EVAs) than any previous space program. Because of the physical demands expected from the crew, future space suit designs are required to incorporate nutritional support to the astronauts during lunar surface EVAs lasting longer than 4 hours. The purpose of this project was to provide recommendations to aid the development of an in-suit system that can adequately, safely, and acceptably deliver nutrition to a crewmember while confined to a space suit during EVA. METHODS Physiological, logistical, and engineering aspects of potential in-suit nutrition approaches were assessed through literature reviews, assessments of commercial off the shelf (COTS) foods, suit volumetric modeling, and feedback from subject matter experts and crewmembers. Key driving factors in the development of in-suit nutrition requirements included how much and what type of nutrition should be included, what food formulations are appropriate and safe, what are inherent limitations of space suits, what are the potential risks to the crewmember in the suit, and what practices and preferences from astronauts should be considered. Design references were conceptualized and assessed for strengths and limitations as potential in-suit nutrition systems for surface EVA. RESULTS Acute exogenous energy demands vary greatly depending on activity intensity and duration, and partial energy replenishment (i.e., 60–80 kcal∙hr-1 of EVA, or 460–680 kcal for EVAs lasting up to 8 hours) during activities could improve performance, safety, and recovery. COTS foods capable of providing these energy requirements exist; however, no COTS foods have been identified that pass NASA flight standards for microbiological safety and stability. In-suit nutrition delivery design references that were considered included in-suit concepts for a prefilled drink bag, a hydratable drink bag, and a solid food stick. In addition, a helmet feed port concept was considered for use with drink bags external to the suit. Volumetric models of the in-suit drink bag concepts, based on xEMU dimensions, indicate challenges of fitting formulations > 200 ml (equating to approximately 200 kcal). Astronaut feedback on the four concepts indicated that despite some individual preferences for inclusion of solid foods and helmet port designs, the prefilled drink bag concept was the most preferred. A prefilled drink bag can only be used if food safety and stability can be ensured, possibly requiring advancements in food delivery hardware. CONCLUSION The ability to meet the increased need for nutrition during surface EVAs through provision of nutrients in the suited configuration would benefit overall crew health, performance, and morale, and thus increase the likelihood of mission success. It is recommended that in-suit nutrition capabilities provide at least 400–600 kcal within the suit during EVAs lasting > 4 hours and that suit designs include a dedicated volume for food grade nutrition systems. The developed food system should either allow for 1) installation of prefilled (sealed sterile) liquid nutrition in the suit and provide a mechanism to break the seal at the time that consumption is desired or 2) demonstrate that the unsealed food product shelf life allows for safe consumption after at least 12 hours of EVA.

space suit↗

Estimating the Importance of Viral Contributions to Soil Carbon Dynamics

ABSTRACT Biogeochemical models for predicting carbon dynamics increasingly include microbial processes, reflecting the importance of microorganisms in regulating the movement of carbon between soils and the atmosphere. Soil viruses can redirect carbon among various chemical pools, indicating a need for quantification and development soil carbon models that explicitly represent viral dynamics. In this opinion, we derive a global estimate of carbon potentially released from microbial biomass by viral infections in soils and synthesize a quantitative soil carbon budget from existing literature that explicitly includes viral impacts. We then adapt known mechanisms by which viruses influence carbon cycles in marine ecosystems into a soil‐explicit framework. Finally, we explore the diversity of virus–host interactions during infection and conceptualize how infection mode may impact soil carbon fate. Our synthesis highlights key knowledge gaps hindering the incorporation of viruses into soil carbon cycling research and generates specific hypotheses to test in the pursuit of better quantifying microbial dynamics that explain ecosystem‐scale carbon fluxes. The importance of identifying critical drivers behind soil carbon dynamics, including these elusive but likely pervasive viral mechanisms of carbon redistribution, becomes more pressing with climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Distributed Load Shedding Application Architecture and Bi-Level Predictive Estimator Algorithm

Increasing penetrations of distributed renewables are decreasing the effectiveness of traditional decentralized under-frequency load shedding (UFLS) schemes. As more distribution circuits begin to back-feed the transmission system, operation of traditional UFLS may exacerbate frequency instability. This paper presents the conceptual framework for a data-rich environment to coordinate UFLS across multiple distribution providers based on the laminar coordination framework in order to ensure optimal adaptive setting of UFLS relays. Communication and control are enabled through a distributed implementation of the IEC 61968-1 Common Information Model message bus structure. In addition to the proposed architecture, a novel adaptive UFLS scheme informed by a bi-level state estimator to create optimal relay setpoints is introduced. Initial simulation results are presented for the IEEE 14-bus test system on scenarios leading to mis-operation of traditional UFLS.

Anderson, Alexander A.↗

Stirling Laboratory Research Engine: Preprototype configuration report

The concept of a simple Stirling research engine that could be used by industrial, university, and government laboratories was studied. The conceptual and final designs, hardware fabrication and the experimental validation of a preprototype stirling laboratory research engine (SLRE) were completed. Also completed was a task to identify the potential markets for research engines of this type. An analytical effort was conducted to provide a stirling cycle computer model. The versatile engine is a horizontally opposed, two piston, single acting stirling engine with a split crankshaft drive mechanism; special instrumentation is installed at all component interfaces. Results of a thermodynamic energy balance for the system are reported. Also included are the engine performance results obtained over a range of speeds, working pressures, phase angles and gas temperatures. The potential for a stirling research engine to support the laboratory requirements of educators and researchers was demonstrated.

Hoehn, F. W.↗

A simple kinetic theory of auroral arc scales

A kinetic theory of the origins of the auroral arc scale spectrum is presented in this paper. The conceptual basis of the theory is current conservation in a turbulent plasma at the magnetospheric equatorial region in which a field-aligned current is generated and the local electrostatic potential structure is forced to adjust to the presence of the field-aligned current. This simple model uses an ad hoc Ohm's law relationship between the perpendicular current and the perpendicular electric field, but with a negative conductance in the generator region so that J(perpendicular) x E(perpendicular) is less than 0. An exact solution of a simple model of the concept yields a bistatic auroral generator for which multiple-arc formation is predicted if the field-aligned current exceeds a critical value. The predicted scale spectrum is inversely proportional to the square root of the field-aligned current strength spectrum.

Chiu, Y. T.↗

Flight crew aiding for recovery from subsystem failures

Some of the conceptual issues associated with pilot aiding systems are discussed and an implementation of one component of such an aiding system is described. It is essential that the format and content of the information the aiding system presents to the crew be compatible with the crew's mental models of the task. It is proposed that in order to cooperate effectively, both the aiding system and the flight crew should have consistent information processing models, especially at the point of interface. A general information processing strategy, developed by Rasmussen, was selected to serve as the bridge between the human and aiding system's information processes. The development and implementation of a model-based situation assessment and response generation system for commercial transport aircraft are described. The current implementation is a prototype which concentrates on engine and control surface failure situations and consequent flight emergencies. The aiding system, termed Recovery Recommendation System (RECORS), uses a causal model of the relevant subset of the flight domain to simulate the effects of these failures and to generate appropriate responses, given the current aircraft state and the constraints of the current flight phase. Since detailed information about the aircraft state may not always be available, the model represents the domain at varying levels of abstraction and uses the less detailed abstraction levels to make inferences when exact information is not available. The structure of this model is described in detail.

Hudlicka, E.↗

Automatic Aircraft Structural Topology Generation for Multidisciplinary Optimization and Weight Estimation

An approach is proposed for the application of rapid generation of moderate-fidelity structural finite element models of air vehicle structures to allow more accurate weight estimation earlier in the vehicle design process. This should help to rapidly assess many structural layouts before the start of the preliminary design phase and eliminate weight penalties imposed when actual structure weights exceed those estimated during conceptual design. By defining the structural topology in a fully parametric manner, the structure can be mapped to arbitrary vehicle configurations being considered during conceptual design optimization. A demonstration of this process is shown for two sample aircraft wing designs.

Sensmeier, Mark D.↗

Commercially-viable Hydrogen Aircraft for Reduction of Greenhouse Emissions

NASA assembled a cross-organizational multidisciplinary “radical” project team combining a diverse set of skills including aircraft architecture modelling and optimization, advanced material science, and engineering of high performance cryogenic, thermal management and fuel cell systems components and subsystems to tackle the challenging problem of development of commercially viable mid-size aircraft that would radically transform air transportation. Our team is developing an integrated conceptual and experimental methodology to realize a medium-range hydrogen aircraft design based on fuel cells, hydrogen burning engines, advanced power management and distribution, cryogenic hydrogen storage systems, and novel thermal management systems combined with an integrated aircraft concept of operations both during the flight and at the airports. The resulting analyses suggested the aircraft architecture options, sizes and layouts for the propulsion subsystem and cryogenic liquid hydrogen (LH2) tankage to verify the weight-scaling relationships for a medium-range aircraft carrying 100-200 passengers flying 1000 - 5000 km. Hydrogen - based distributed electric propulsion and cryogenic systems were further analysed, and more detailed study identified systems goals for a viable overall system weight for missions of various lengths. The developed aircraft architecture is being optimized by total specific energy density, specific power, size and mission profiles.

aircraft architecture↗

Commercially-viable Hydrogen Aircraft for Reduction of Greenhouse Emissions

NASA assembled a cross-organizational multidisciplinary “radical” project team combining a diverse set of skills including aircraft architecture modelling and optimization, advanced material science, and engineering of high performance cryogenic, thermal management and fuel cell systems components and subsystems to tackle the challenging problem of development of commercially viable mid-size aircraft that would radically transform air transportation. Our team is developing an integrated conceptual and experimental methodology to realize a medium-range hydrogen aircraft design based on fuel cells, hydrogen burning engines, advanced power management and distribution, cryogenic hydrogen storage systems, and novel thermal management systems combined with an integrated aircraft concept of operations both during the flight and at the airports. The resulting analyses suggested the aircraft architecture options, sizes and layouts for the propulsion subsystem and cryogenic liquid hydrogen (LH2) tankage to verify the weight-scaling relationships for a medium-range aircraft carrying 100-200 passengers flying 1000 - 5000 km. Hydrogen - based distributed electric propulsion and cryogenic systems were further analysed, and more detailed study identified systems goals for a viable overall system weight for missions of various lengths. The developed aircraft architecture is being optimized by total specific energy density, specific power, size and mission profiles.

aircraft architecture↗