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Technical Cooperation on Verification and its role in Trust Building [Slides]

Technical cooperation is a low-cost way to initiate movement in the arms control sphere and offers an operational path forward for the reestablishment of working relationships built on trust not freely given, but gained through experience, and a shared vision of the future; Political will alone, though necessary for cooperation to take place, is insufficient in the face of structural obstacles. For effective cooperation to have a future, countries must have both political will and complementary and conducive institutional structures; Cooperation at the intergovernmental level seems unlikely at this time. However, if relationships with international partners continue to be strained as development of new offensive technologies continues, it is very possible that future movement in technical arms control cooperation could again be initiated in the nongovernmental sphere; As the stewards of the majority of the world’s nuclear stockpile, the United States and the Russian Federation have a unique role to play in shaping global norms on arms control verification and cooperation; it is in their mutual interest now to begin to find technical solutions to the question of verification as other countries ramp up production.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Ka-Band ARM Zenith Radar Corrections (KAZRCOR, KAZRCFRCOR) Value-Added Products

The Ka-Band Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Zenith Radar Corrections (KAZRCOR) and KA-Band ARM Zenith Radar CF-Radial, Corrected (KAZRCFRCOR) value-added products (VAPs) perform several corrections to the ingested KAZR moments and also create a significant detection mask for each radar mode. The VAPs compute gaseous attenuation as a function of time and radial distance from the radar antenna, based on ambient meteorological observations, and correct observed reflectivities for that effect. Mean Doppler velocities are dealiased to correct velocities whose magnitudes exceed the radar’s Nyquist velocity. Input KAZR data fields are passed through to the KAZRCOR or KAZRCFRCOR output files, in their native time and range coordinates. Complementary corrected reflectivity and velocity fields are provided, along with a mask of significant detections and a number of data quality flags. This report covers the KAZRCOR VAP as applied to the original KAZR radars and the upgraded KAZR2 radars. Originally, prior to late 2019, there were two separate code bases for the different radar versions. Following the harmonization of KAZR and KAZR2 data formats in 2019, only a single code base is required. The new combined KAZR and KAZR2 code base is called the KAZRCFRCOR VAP. The ‘cfr portion of the VAP name refers to the Radial Climate and Forecasting data format standards that are used in these data sets. Throughout this report, references to ‘KAZRCOR’ should be taken to apply to the ‘KAZRCFRCOR’ VAP as well unless there is an explicit statement to the contrary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantitative Determination of Total Cesium in Savannah River Site (SRS) Tank Waste by Inductively Coupled Plasma Emission Spectroscropy

Utilization of the significant and unique wavelength dynamic range (165 to 1100 nm) available on the Leeman Prodigy Inductively Coupled Plasma Emission Spectroscopy (ICP-ES) allows for quantification of cesium using the emission line 894.347 nm without the potential of Barium interference in nuclear waste samples. Samples are added to a Sodium Peroxide Fusion and Lithium Carbonate buffer in 2% nitric acid solution to increase sensitivity of the easily ionizable (<6 eV) cesium for quantitation to 5 pbb. Through direct comparison of analytical data results, the method is proven to be complementary to the Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) analysis (LOQ 100 ppt) in support of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Waste Mission.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Second Annual Progress Report on Correlation Between Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Neutron-Irradiated Ferritic-Martensitic and Austenitic Steels

Ferritic-martensitic steels G92-2b (an optimized Grade 92 heat), NF616 and T91, and austenitic stainless steel 800H and its Grain Boundary Engineering (GBE)-treated version 800H-TMP (ThermoMechanical Processing) were irradiated in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) of Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Selected G92-2b samples were irradiated up to 14.66 dpa in the HFIR at two temperature ranges: 400–496.7°C and 683.3– 720°C. NF616 and T91 were irradiated in the ATR up to 8.16 dpa with the irradiation temperatures ranged from 241°C to 447.5°C. Alloy 800H and 800H-TMP samples were irradiated in both the HFIR and the ATR. Selected 800H and 800H-TMP samples had HFIR irradiation to 1.28 dpa at 580°C and ATR irradiation up to 9.12 dpa at 359°C to 431°C. Vickers hardness measurements, fractography, and microstructural characterization were performed on the selected samples in the Low Activation Materials Design and Analysis (LAMDA) laboratory. Radiation-hardening of G92-2b was observed at the lower doses and lower irradiation temperatures (400- 496.7°C), with GB03 (0.52 dpa at 400°C) and GB04 (7.44 dpa at ~490°C) showing ~12% and ~8% hardening, respectively. Softening by ~14% was observed for GB05 (14.66 dpa at 496.7°C). Radiationsoftening of G92-2b was more prevalent at the higher irradiation temperatures (683.3-~720°C), with GB10 (0.46 dpa at 683.3°C), GB11 (7.44 dpa at ~720°C), and GB12 (14.63 dpa at ~720°C) showing ~8%, ~8%, and ~40% softening, respectively. Radiation-hardening of NF616 and T91 was observed with the hardness increased by ~37% to ~65% depending on the irradiation doses and irradiation temperatures. Within the studied irradiation conditions of NF616 and T91, samples with a higher dose had a larger hardness after irradiation. All the tested alloy 800H and 800H-TMP samples in this work showed radiation-hardening by ~96±7% to ~152±10%. Alloy 800H-TMP tended to have slightly smaller radiation-hardening than alloy 800H. The fractography results of G92-2b sample GB03, GB10, and GB11, together with the previously characterized fractography of GB04, GB05, and GB12, indicated that the ductility of G92-2b was maintained up to 14.66 dpa at the lower irradiation temperatures of 400-496.7°C, while some loss of ductility (less necking) was observed for higher doses at the higher irradiation temperatures of 683.3-720°C. This agrees with the previously reported tensile test results of G92-2b, where the elongation of G92-2b was reduced at higher doses at the higher irradiation temperatures. Dimple sizes increased at higher doses, which are more evident at the higher irradiation temperatures of 683.3-~720°C. The fractography of NF616 sample D2 (2.96 dpa at 291.5°C), D4 (5.91 dpa at 359°C), and D6 (8.16 dpa at 431°C) indicated loss of ductility with negligible necking for sample D2, while ductile failure for samples D4 and D6. Fractography of alloy 800H and 800H-TMP samples in various irradiation conditions showed ductile failure with obvious necking. Dimples were observed, with some of them containing large Ti-rich particles, in all the 800H/800H-TMP samples. Electron backscatter diffraction characterization of GB12 indicated the recovery of the lath structure, which was generally replaced by an equiaxed grain structure. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) characterization showed the presence of frequent M 23 C 6 (M = primarily Cr), MX (M = primarily V), spherical Nb(C,N) precipitates, and occasional Laves phase precipitates in the G92-2b samples. MX precipitates with sizes of 20-30 nm were observed at boundaries of smaller grains, indicating the pinning effect of the V-rich precipitates. The lath structure recovery was more evident at the higher irradiation temperatures (683.3-~720°C), with decreased densities of line dislocations and M23C6 precipitates. The irradiated T91 (TA04) showed the growth of M23C6 precipitates to 101 ± 40 nm from the initial 68 ± 22 nm in the unirradiated condition. Dislocation loops of both {100} and {111} types were present in TA04. TEM characterization was also performed on the irradiated 800H (N4, N5, N6, and AR2) and 800H-TMP (P4, P5, P6, and HG1). Accumulation of M 23 C 6 precipitates at grain boundaries was observed in all the xii 800H/800H-TMP samples, and the presence of Ti(C,N) precipitates at grain boundaries and in the matrix was observed in the irradiated 800H-TMP. Some Ti(C,N) precipitates are embedded in the M 23 C 6 precipitates, maintaining specific orientation relationships between the precipitates and between the precipitate and matrix. In addition, nanoscale Si-rich clusters were observed in the matrix of all the 800H/800H-TMP samples, with EDS Si maps tending to have a lower contrast in 800H-TMP samples. Atom probe tomography was conducted on the same samples, supported by a Rapid Turnaround Examination project under Nuclear Science User Facilities. The results are being analyzed to be integrated with the TEM results for a confident description of the γ’ precipitates. Dislocation loops also formed in all the 800H/800H-TMP samples. The density and the average size of dislocation loops were quantified to be in the order of 10 22 – 10 23 m -3 and 11.7 – 15.9 nm, respectively, in the ATR-irradiated 800H/800H-TMP samples. The loop densities in irradiated 800H were higher than that in irradiated 800H-TMP under the same irradiation conditions. Further systematic data analyses, together with some complementary experiments, will be pursued for these samples to foster peer-reviewed journal article publications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Report on partially complete post-irradiation-examination of the INL samples

Ferritic-martensitic steels (NF616 and T91), and austenitic stainless steel 800H and its Grain Boundary Engineering (GBE)-treated version 800H-TMP (ThermoMechanical Processing) were irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and their microstructures and mechanical properties were characterized. Ferritic-martensitic steels were irradiated up to 8.16 dpa in the irradiation temperatures ranging from 241 °C to 447.5 °C. Selected 800H and 800H-TMP samples were also irradiated up to 9.12 dpa at 359°C to 431°C. Vickers hardness measurement, fractography, and microstructural characterization were performed on the selected samples in the LAMDA lab. Radiation-induced hardening of NF616 and T91 was observed in the hardness measurements which show ~37% to ~65% increases, depending on irradiation dose and irradiation temperature. Within the irradiation conditions studied in this work, samples with a higher dose had a higher hardness. All the tested alloy 800H and 800H-TMP in this work showed irradiation-hardening by ~96±7% to ~152±10%. Alloy 800HTMP tended to have slightly smaller irradiation-hardening than alloy 800H. The fractography of NF616 samples D2 (2.96 dpa at 291.5°C), D4 (5.91 dpa at 359°C), and D6 (8.16 dpa at 431°C) indicated loss of ductility with negligible necking for the sample D2, yet obvious ductile failure for samples D4 and D6. Fractography of alloy 800H samples N4 (7.27 dpa at 359°C), N5 (3.9 dpa at 451.5°C), and N6 (9.01 dpa at 431°C), and alloy 800H-TMP samples P4 (7.36 dpa at 359°C), P5 (3.95 dpa at 451.5°C), and P6 (9.12 dpa at 431°C) indicated that all samples failed in a ductile mode, with obvious necking. Dimples were observed where large Ti-containing particles were observed for the samples. TEM characterization was performed on alloy 800H (N4, N5, N6) and 800H-TMP (P4, P5 and P6). Accumulation of M23C6 precipitates at grain boundaries was observed in all samples, and the presence of Ti(C,N) precipitates at grain boundaries and in the matrix was observed in alloy 800H-TMP. M23C6 precipitates were found to have the cube-on-cube orientation relationship with the matrix. In addition, nanoscale Si-rich clusters were observed in the matrix of all samples. Atom probe tomography was conducted on the same samples, and their results are being analyzed to be integrated with the TEM results for a confident description of the clustering behavior. Due to the low irradiation temperature (up to 451.5°C), dislocation loops formed in all samples, with the density and the average size of dislocation loops in the order of 1022 – 1023 m-3 and 11.7 – 15.9 nm, respectively. The loop densities in alloy 800H were higher than that in alloy 800H-TMP under the same irradiation conditions. Further systematic data analyses, together with some complementary experiments, will be pursued for these samples to foster peer-reviewed journal article publications.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Use of the Tool to Support Renewable Energy Auctions Processes (RE Data Explorer)

Renewable energy auctions are now a common competitive approach to procure low-cost renewable power around the world. Ensuring a successful auction process increasingly depends on the capabilities of auction designers and participants to identify actionable and defensible insights from large data sets (on renewable energy resources and complementary data) to both attract potential investors and address stakeholder concerns. The Renewable Energy (RE) Data Explorer is a user-friendly geospatial analysis tool for analyzing renewable energy potential and informing decisions. Developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), RE Data Explorer performs visualization and analysis of renewable energy potential that can be customized for different scenarios. RE Data Explorer can support prospecting, integrated planning, policymaking, and other decision-making activities to accelerate renewable energy deployment. The broader RE Explorer website provides guidance and information to link the RE Data Explorer geospatial analysis tool to key decision areas. This document provides information on how the RE Data Explorer can be used to support renewable energy auction processes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification

By its nature, electrification enhances the coupling between the electric sector and end-use sectors. Assessing the impacts of electrification requires both an examination of the complex interactions between sectors and a broader assessment of multiple parts of the energy system. The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) uses several complementary modeling and analysis tools to analyze the impacts of electrification on the U.S. energy system. In particular, the EFS relies on an overarching scenario analysis approach, but through the use of separate modeling approaches designed to assess various electricity demand- and supply-side futures. The primary model employed to generate the supply-side scenarios is the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which is a capacity expansion model for the U.S. electricity system through 2050. Traditionally, the model has been primarily exercised in scenario analysis that implicitly assumed limited electrification. Because of this assumption, resulting future load profiles are approximated by historical ones, load growth is driven primarily by population and economic growth only, and changes in direct end-use natural gas consumption do not effect natural gas costs for electricity generation. In this report, we (1) reflect the potential for resource sharing between regions given these changes in demand, (2) represent how changes in natural gas consumption in end-use sectors could impact the economics of natural gas-fired generation, and (3) document a new model representation of demand-side flexibility used for the EFS. These improvements to ReEDS are employed for the EFS supply-wide analysis, which is summarized in a companion EFS report titled Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States (Murphy et al. 2019). The data and methods documented in this report could also be adapted for other models with similar scope and limitations as ReEDS, and these data and methods could be used to assess future electric system scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Austin Sustainable and Holistic Integration of Energy Storage and Solar PV [Austin SHINES]. Final Report, Version 2

The Austin SHINES project and solution is a software management platform, for an electric grid with a high penetration of dispersed photovoltaic (PV) solar generation sites, which maintains the traditional power quality and reliability associated with grid service. This project developed and deployed the platform as a Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS), engaging multiple advanced controls, to evaluate operation and optimization of a fleet of diverse DER assets, installed at several locations among Austin Energy’s customers and distribution system. The project also produced a methodology to create a replicable DERMS template, adaptable to other regions and market structures. Last, Austin SHINES aimed to demonstrate the solution’s methodology would enable the DER grid ecosystem to serve load at a technical cost (System Levelized Cost of Electricity, or System LCOE) of less than the U.S. Department of Energy SHINES program metric of $0.14/kWh, in a defined boundary, while enabling a high penetration of distributed PV. Research was categorized in 6 reports (Final Deliverables = FD) listed below, with titles and descriptions indicating which area of understanding was investigated: FD-1: System Levelized Cost of Electricity (System LCOE) Methodology The creation and use of the System LCOE to Serve Load metric that encompasses the holistic, system-level costs and benefits of all resources, and enables them to be evaluated based on their ability to support an efficient and low-cost integrated grid ecosystem. FD-2: Software Platform Product Description The creation of new DER control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform that enable DER's to maximize their benefit within a grid, that is capable of serving load enabling a high penetration of distributed PV generation. FD-3: Optimal Design Methodology Optimal design methodologies for individual DER installations that enable utilities to determine the optimal combinations and sizing for individual DER sites. FD-4: Austin SHINES Ownership and Operation Models for DER System Performance A comparison of multiple DER aggregation and ownership methodologies including direct utility control, third-party aggregator, and autonomous. FD-5: Economic Modeling & Optimization A comparison of multiple DER technology mixes and configurations within the distribution system, providing insight into an optimal blend of technologies that best enable the distribution system to serve load at the lowest cost at high penetrations of solar. FD-6: Fielded Assets Deployed DER assets within the Austin Energy SHINES circuits. Austin SHINES provided an opening for state-of-the-art technology products to be deployed, providing a rich opportunity for improving how each of the products perform as stand-alone products, and in concert with other complementary products. The Austin SHINES project comprised of two key metrics for System LCOE: SystemLCOE_SHINES<$0.14/kWh Modeled ΔSystemLCOE_SHINES/ΔSystemLCOE_Base≥20% at same solar penetration The System LCOE calculation uses the costs of the utility-owned infrastructure as it exists today, the cost of the DERs that exist in the system today, and the cost of the purchase of energy from ERCOT wholesale markets over the course of the calendar year. All costs are on an annualized basis. The capital and operating costs are derived from the rate case, which produces a yearly cost. The net cost of energy and services imported to the system is integrated over the test year, as is the load served and solar penetration. The first metric was easily achieved by every scenario considered. The goal was set when the Department of Energy’s SHINES Funding Opportunity Announcement was written in 2015 and was a more difficult target at the time. Due mostly to rapidly declining costs for DERs and the significant decrease in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) energy market prices, which results in lower net cost of energy purchases, the System LCOE is well below this target for all scenarios considered. A fleet of DERs can assume different mixtures, each of which serves the load at a different LCOE. The optimal mixture of DERs serves load at the smallest System LCOE. The second metric (hereinafter %delta metric) asks that the holistic DERMS controls reduce the incremental cost above the baseline of going to a high solar penetration future by at least 20% as compared to the case of a DER deployment with no sophisticated controls (autonomous). Many comparison sets were created throughout this project. Physical technology was installed for informing utility engineering and testing several types of operational control schemes, through the DERMS. The types of operational control which were compared for valuation of the System LCOE Metric were: Holistic control = using the full suite of the DERMS platform to decide and optimize how/why the systems operate depending on weather, market, and reliability signal input. Autonomous control = a local mode at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only No control = the baseline for comparing value against the other two types of control The types of ownership control included: Direct Utility control = the utility dispatches a signal to each asset Third-Party Aggregator = a third party aggregates a fleet of assets and the utility dispatches one signal for all Autonomous = a local mode is set for operation at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only The types of control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform included: Utility Peak Load Reduction = Lower transmission cost obligation Day-Ahead Energy Arbitrage = Realize economic value through price differential Real-Time Price Dispatch = Realize economic value from real-time price spikes Voltage support = Reduce losses and increase solar generation Distribution Congestion Management = Increase local grid reliability Demand Charge Reduction = Lower customer bills and realize system benefit The fielded assets deployed for the project were: Utility Scale Kingsbery Energy Storage System: 1.5 MW / 3 MWh Li-Ion battery storage Mueller Energy Storage System: 1.75 MW / 3.2 MWh Li-Ion battery storage, 7 Energy Storage Units (250 kW each) La Loma Community Solar: 2.6 MW Commercial Scale Aggregated storage installations at 3 sites, with existing solar (300+ kW): One 18 kW / 36 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Two 72 kW / 144 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Residential Scale Aggregated storage installations: -Six stationary battery storage systems (10 kWh each) at homes with existing solar -One Electric Vehicle installed as Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Utility-Controlled Solar via Smart Inverters at 12 homes Autonomously-Controlled Smart Inverters at 6 homes Over the course of the project, Austin SHINES undertook installing more than 3 MW of distributed battery energy storage, smart PV inverters, a DER control platform, and other enabling technologies utilizing customer and utility locations and aggregation models. All of these resources were to be integrated and optimized at the utility level. DER assets and control methodologies were designed to achieve a credible pathway to a System LCOE for energy delivered to load of $0.14//kWh or less by 2020, while maximizing distributed solar generation and maintaining acceptable standards of power quality. The project also established a template for other regions to follow, to maximize the adoption of distributed solar PV in support of an economic and efficient grid. In total, the Austin SHINES project added value to the DER subject area in each layer of integration. From utility, to commercial to residential scales, the sheer hierarchy of communication and coordination was a significant accomplishment in addition to learnings from what these communications revealed was unique to each. Economically, the most effective method demonstrated was the criticality of planning phases. Contingencies and multiple projection scenarios helped guide the project to deploy optimal design as close as feasible, in real world conditions. The project and reports will serve public benefit by outlining specific areas of DER strategy and installation where many stakeholders and needs can be addressed with improved efficiency. Overall, communities and utilities should use the results to guide the increasing options available for powering the grid with DER, renewables, and carbon considerate energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Status Report on Development of a Cask to Enable Pulsed Neutron Characterization of Irradiated Fuel

We present the design of a shielding cask that allows pulsed neutron characterization of irradiated fuel rodlets prior to their destructive examination in hot cells. The goal is to provide complementary and informative measurements that will inform subsequent hot cell PIE examinations by identifying typical and atypical regions with respect to microstructure, tomographic data, or isotope densities. Time-of-flight neutron diffraction has the potential to offer efficient, non-destructive and non-contact microstructural characterization of irradiated fuel pins with spatial resolution of 1 mm3 to 1 cm3 while for energy-resolved neutron imaging (and by extension tomography) a resolution of 100 μm was demonstrated. The potential results include crystallinity vs. amorphous volumes and microstructural information such as phase compositions and textures from the diffraction data as well as distances (e.g. pellet to cladding), cracks, and isotopic distributions of minor actinides, fission products as well as fission gas partial pressures e.g. in the plenum from energy resolved neutron imaging. The capability will identify regions of atypical behavior and provide cost effective bulk characterization of entire samples prior to destructive evaluation in hot cells. This effort is a collaboration between LANL, INL, ORNL, and UC Berkeley. A key facet of the initiative is the ability to cost effectively ship irradiated fuels from INL to the pulsed spallation neutron source at LANSCE. The irradiated fuel would be loaded in the custom designed cask (designated RaMHaM) at INL hot cells which then could be shipped in a BRR Type B shipment container between INL and LANL. No hot cell is required after the loading of the sample at INL in the pathway laid out in this report, greatly simplifying handling at LANL.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

TRUST-EABM Nonlinear Dynamics (ND) Report (Release FY2020-1.1)

The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainties in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) project is to support the efficient and responsive development of experimental, modeling, and simulation capabilities for future systems by developing representative testbeds that can be exercised more easily and efficiently than a WR-like assembly for the purposes uncertainty quantification. The testbeds are intended to be experimentally exercised in current and future relevant engineering environments with complementary modeling and simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Big-Data-Driven Geo-Spatiotemporal Correlation Analysis between Precursor Pollen and Influenza and its Implication to Novel Coronavirus Outbreak

Although studies of many respiratory viruses and pollens are often framed by both seasonal and health related perspectives, pollen has yet to be extensively examined as an important covariate to seasonal respiratory viruses (SRVs) in any context, including a causal one. This study contributes to those goals through an investigation of SRVs and pollen counts at selected regions across the Western Hemisphere. Two complementary decadal-scaled geospatial profiles were developed. One laterally spanned the US and was anchored by detailed pollen information for Albuquerque, New Mexico. The other straddled the equator to include Fortaleza, Brazil. We found that the geospatial and climatological patterns of pollen advancement and decline across the US every year presented a statistically significant correlation to the subsequent emergence and decline of SRVs. Other significant covariates included winds, temperatures, and atmospheric moisture. Our study indicates that areas of the US with lower geostrophic wind baselines are typically areas of persistently higher and earlier influenza like illness (ILI) cases. In addition to that continental- scaled contrast, many sites indicated seasonal highs of geostrophic winds and ILI which were closely aligned. These observations suggest extensive scale-dependent connectivity of viruses to geostrophic circulation. Pollen emergence and its own scale-dependent circulation may contribute to the geospatial and seasonal patterns of ILI. We explore some uncertainties associated with this investigation, and consider the possibility that in a temperate climate, following a Spring pollen emergence, a resulting increase in pollen triggered human Immunoglobulin E (IgE) antibodies may suppress ILIs for several months.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Multiscale-Informed Modeling of High Temperature Component Response with Uncertainty Quantification

This report summarizes a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory, and Los Alamos National Laboratory to develop and deploy constitutive models targeted at predicting the life of Grade 91 alloy components subjected to high temperature environments typical of those that structural components in advanced nuclear reactors would experience. Two distinct, but complementary constitutive modeling approaches have been taken here. The first employs a phenomenological viscoplastic model for which parameters have been calibrated based on experimental data for a wide range of Grade 91 alloy that has undergone a variety of processing. A Bayesian approach was used to derive distributions of uncertain parameters for this model based on this data set. The second approach is a reduced order model suitable for engineering-scale analysis that is based on the results of a large set of mesoscale simulations. Mesoscale models allow for the microstructure and composition of a particular alloy to be directly taken into account in the computation of the viscoplastic response, but are computationally expensive, which makes it impractical to directly call those models for the material constitutive response in an engineering-scale simulation. The reduced-order representation of the response of the underlying model used here allows for an engineering-scale model to take into account the characteristics of the underlying microstructure, while only incurring a reasonable computational expense. Both of these approaches have different strengths, and are applicable for different parts of the design/analysis process. The phenomenological models can be readily parameterized based on a set of experimental data for a given class of materials and used for scoping calculations. Once a specific material is chosen and adequately characterized, the reduced order models can accurately predict the response of that specific alloy, and because the models are based on predictive models of the underlying microstructure, they can be used to more confidently predict the response under conditions in regions where there is limited experimental data. Both of these models have been integrated in the Grizzly code, which is used here to perform proof-of-concept uncertainty quantification analyses of a simple component under prototypical conditions. The built- in stochastic analysis capabilities in the MOOSE framework that Grizzly is built on are used here to run large sets of simulations for this uncertainty quantification analysis. As would be expected, because the reduced order models are developed for a much more tightly defined alloy, they predict tighter distributions of the time to failure than the phenomenological models, which are calibrated to a broader set of data. Also important is that these simulations demonstrate that a reduced order modeling approach can be successfully deployed to propagate uncertainties from the material scale to practical engineering-scale component simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Adaptive Recovery Model: Designing Systems for Testing Tracing and Vaccination to Support COVID-19 Recovery Planning.

This report documents a new approach to designing disease control policies that allocate scarce testing, contact tracing, and vaccination resources to better control community transmission of COVID19 or similar diseases. The Adaptive Recovery Model (ARM) combines a deterministic compartmental disease model with a stochastic network disease propagation model to enable us to simulate COVID-19 community spread through the lens of two complementary modeling motifs. ARM contact networks are derived from cell-phone location data that have been anonymized and interpreted as individual arrivals to specic public locations. Modeling disease spread over these networks allows us to identify locations within communities conducive to rapid disease spread. ARM applies this model- and data-derived abstractions of community transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of disease control measures including targeted social distancing, contact tracing, testing and vaccination. The architecture of ARM provides a unique capacity to help decision makers understand how best to deploy scarce testing, tracing and vaccination resources to minimize disease-spread potential in a community. This document details the novel mathematical formulations underlying ARM, presents a dynamical stability analysis of the deterministic model components, a sensitivity analysis of control parameters and network structure, and summarizes a process for deriving contact networks from cell-phone location data. An example use case steps through applying ARM to evaluate three targeted social distancing policies using Bernalillo County, New Mexico as an exemplar test locale. This step-by-step analysis demonstrates how ARM can be used to measure the relative performance of competing public health policies. Initial scenario tests of ARM shows that ARMs design focus on resource utilization rather than simple incidence prediction can provide decision makers with additional quantitative guidance for managing ongoing public health emergencies and planning future responses.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

FY20 Report for Instrumentation Development for the Transient Testing Program

This yearly report provides a summary of accomplishments carried out under funding from the Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Technology Research and Development (NTRD) program for in-pile instrumentation supporting the transient testing program in FY20. These activities were performed in support of cross-cutting transient testing experiment objective. In this year, specific instrument R&D has been a lesser priority to years past, with complementary instrumentation R&D being ramped up under the DOE Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation Program. The primary focus of the work in FY20 pertain to defining a process and system, developed over the past several years, for developing, qualifying, and deploying instrumentation in in-pile experiments. The purpose of this report is to provide a summary of these outcomes and be a reference for researchers that are interested in developing in-pile instrumentation, with a particular emphasis on the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility for deployment.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Growth of New High-Quality and Large-Size Single Crystals via High Pressure Floating-Zone Technique

This award supports experimental materials physics research on a class of technologically relevant materials that cannot form under ambient conditions. With the complementary expertise at Louisiana State University (LSU) and infrastructure at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), single crystals of these materials will be synthesized using the high-pressure floating-zone technique. Our ability to grow high-quality single crystals will facilitate advanced characterization of these materials and improve the scientific outcomes. In addition to in-house material characterization, the principle investigator will partner with scientists at ORNL and Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to tackle materials problems using the state-of-the-art characterization techniques. This will allow us to explore the fundamental physics underlying the emergent phenomena only seen in materials prepared under extreme conditions. Our ultimate goal is to address one of the grand challenges of materials science: how do complex phenomena emerge from simple ingredients? The proposed project will also spearhead a unique opportunity to train “new breed” scientists, co-advised by experts at both LSU and U. S. Department of Energy National Laboratories. They will be essential for expanding materials physics research with ability to grow crystals, characterize their properties, and design new materials -- an imperative skill that is scarce in the U. S. scientific community.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

2019 Quantum Materials Young Investigators Workshop Report

The fourth edition of the workshop “Quantum Materials Young Investigators” was held June 6-7, 2019 at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). This workshop followed up on previous meetings that took place at ORNL starting in 2016. This important series of annual workshops, organized by Adam Aczel and Stuart Calder, ensures continuous engagement with the early career principal investigators (PIs) of the quantum materials neutron scattering community. Through a series of short scientific talks presented by the external PIs, members of the Neutron Scattering Division (NSD) learn about their scientific interests and needs. Presentations from ORNL staff members also help to inform the external PIs about the current state of ORNL’s quantum materials neutron scattering program. Topics covered include the current instrument suites, sample environment, data reduction, visualization, and analysis, and future neutron scattering and complementary capabilities. Feedback is solicited from the external PIs in all these key areas and communicated to NSD management in the form of a workshop report. This workshop series also helps to foster collaborations between NSD scientists and the research groups of the external PIs and plays an important role in attracting new neutron scattering users.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

LaserNetUS. Final report

In this proposal we have formed a consortium in response to a request from the DoE Office of Fusion Energy Sciences to establish a national network of Petawatt-class laser systems to act as domestic user facilities that can enable a broad range of frontier scientific research. This new entity is called LaserNet US. The network formed here is directly responsive to recommendations made in a recently released National Academy of Sciences Report with regard to US strategy for high intensity laser research, “Opportunities in Intense Ultrafast Lasers: Reaching for the Brightest Light”. As detailed in this report, the research in this area has the potential to transform science in a number of research fields and to open up new areas of fundamental research. High field science was initiated in the US in the 1990’s, and subsequently Europe and Asia have embraced this research field, investing more than a billion dollars in this area over the past several years. Our network includes five academic and two national lab-based high intensity laser facilities. These facilities are distributed geographically throughout the US and the network provides access to complementary facilities which have unique world-class laser and experimental capabilities. LaserNet US will make these existing Petawatt-class laser facilities available to users from around the country who until now have not had regular access to such machines. Consequently, the network, which will develop over time, will also become a key element in driving forward national research in high field and high energy density plasma science. In particular, the University of Michigan provides access to the Hercules laser facility and the T-cubed laser facility for collaborative experiments as part of the first year operation. In the second year - to begin in summer 2019 - the experiments will be chosen via proposal submission and review by an outside panel formed by DOE.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

TRUST-EABM Sensors in Environments (SE) Report: Release FY20

The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainties in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) project is to support the efficient and responsive development of experimental, modeling, and simulation capabilities for future systems by developing representative testbeds that can be exercised more easily and efficiently than a WR like assembly for the purposes uncertainty quantification [1][2][3]. The testbeds are intended to be experimentally exercised in current and future relevant engineering environments with complementary modeling and simulation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗