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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Statistical inference of collision frequencies from x-ray Thomson scattering spectra

Thomson scattering spectra measure the response of plasma particles to incident radiation. In warm dense matter, which is opaque to visible light, x-ray Thomson scattering (XRTS) enables a detailed probe of the electron distribution and has been used as a diagnostic for electron temperature, density, and plasma ionization. In this work, we examine the sensitivities of inelastic XRTS signatures to modeling details, including the dynamic collision frequency and the electronic density of states. Applying verified Monte Carlo inversion methods to dynamic structure factors obtained from time-dependent density functional theory, we assess the utility of XRTS signals as a way to inform the dynamic collision frequency, especially its direct-current limit, which is directly related to the electrical conductivity.

Collision frequency↗

DOE OSTI2024

Learning likelihood ratios with neural network classifiers

The likelihood ratio is a crucial quantity for statistical inference in science that enables hypothesis testing, construction of confidence intervals, reweighting of distributions, and more. Many modern scientific applications, however, make use of data- or simulation-driven models for which computing the likelihood ratio can be very difficult or even impossible. By applying the so-called “likelihood ratio trick,” approximations of the likelihood ratio may be computed using clever parametrizations of neural network-based classifiers. A number of different neural network setups can be defined to satisfy this procedure, each with varying performance in approximating the likelihood ratio when using finite training data. We present a series of empirical studies detailing the performance of several common loss functionals and parametrizations of the classifier output in approximating the likelihood ratio of two univariate and multivariate Gaussian distributions as well as simulated high-energy particle physics datasets.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Different Types of Entrances on Natural Ventilation in a Subway Station

In this study, the natural ventilation of a horizontal entrance of a typical subway station is investigated based on numerical simulations and experiments. In addition, a renormalization group k-e model (RNG k-e model) is applied to compute both the internal and external airflow patterns. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are validated based on the experimental results. Furthermore, a multiple variable regression model is employed to study how the different parameters affect the internal airflow rates of the subway station statistically, according to the experimental results. For this typical model, the parameter importance can be ranked as follows: (1) outdoor wind speed; (2) flow resistance of the subway station; (3) height of the wind catcher; and (4) length of the wind catcher. To understand the detailed pressure distribution of the horizontal entrance of the subway station with and without the wind catcher, 3D numerical simulations are conducted for different scenarios. We attempt to alter the size of the wind catcher (including the length and height) to study the characteristics of the pressure on the horizontal entrance of the subway station under outdoor wind-driven conditions. The pressure distributions for the entrance for different scenarios are compared and analyzed. Finally, the interactions between the internal and external flows are investigated by changing the resistance of the subway station. When the internal flow resistance is changed, the pressure coefficient (Cp) of the entrance is different as well. Hence, the Cp is not only affected by the outdoor environment, but is also influenced by the internal airflows.

CFD↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quartet-based inference is statistically consistent under the unified duplication-loss-coalescence model

Abstract Motivation The classic multispecies coalescent (MSC) model provides the means for theoretical justification of incomplete lineage sorting-aware species tree inference methods. This has motivated an extensive body of work on phylogenetic methods that are statistically consistent under MSC. One such particularly popular method is ASTRAL, a quartet-based species tree inference method. Novel studies suggest that ASTRAL also performs well when given multi-locus gene trees in simulation studies. Further, Legried et al. recently demonstrated that ASTRAL is statistically consistent under the gene duplication and loss model (GDL). GDL is prevalent in evolutionary histories and is the first core process in the powerful duplication-loss-coalescence evolutionary model (DLCoal) by Rasmussen and Kellis. Results In this work, we prove that ASTRAL is statistically consistent under the general DLCoal model. Therefore, our result supports the empirical evidence from the simulation-based studies. More broadly, we prove that the quartet-based inference approach is statistically consistent under DLCoal. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cosmology from weak lensing peaks and minima with Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam Survey first-year data

We present cosmological constraints derived from peak counts, minimum counts, and the angular power spectrum of the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam first-year (HSC Y1) weak lensing shear catalogue. Weak lensing peak and minimum counts contain non-Gaussian information and hence are complementary to the conventional two-point statistics in constraining cosmology. In this work, we forward-model the three summary statistics and their dependence on cosmology, using a suite of N-body simulations tailored to the HSC Y1 data. We investigate systematic and astrophysical effects including intrinsic alignments, baryon feedback, multiplicative bias, and photometric redshift uncertainties. We mitigate the impact of these systematics by applying cuts on angular scales, smoothing scales, signal-to-noise ratio bins, and tomographic redshift bins. By combining peaks, minima, and the power spectrum, assuming a flat-ΛCDM model, we obtain S 8 ≡ σ 8 $\sqrt{Ω_m/0.3}$ = 0.810$^{+0.022}_{-0.026}$⁠, a 35 per cent tighter constraint than that obtained from the angular power spectrum alone. Our results are in agreement with other studies using HSC weak lensing shear data, as well as with Planck 2018 cosmology and recent CMB lensing constraints from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and the South Pole Telescope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Experimental Realization of the 1D Random Field Ising Model

Here we have measured magnetic-field-induced avalanches in a square artificial spin ice array of interacting nanomagnets. Starting from the ground state ordered configuration, we imaged the individual nanomagnet moments after each successive application of an incrementally increasing field. The statistics of the evolution of the moment configuration show good agreement with the canonical one-dimensional random field Ising model. We extract information about the microscopic structure of the arrays from our macroscopic measurements of their collective behavior, demonstrating a process that could be applied to other systems exhibiting avalanches.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dealing with Measurement Uncertainties as Nuisance Parameters in Bayesian Model Calibration

In the presence of model discrepancy, the calibration of physics-based models for physical parameter inference is a challenging problem. Lack of identifiability between calibration parameters and model discrepancy requires additional identifiability constraints to be placed on the model discrepancy to obtain unique physical parameter estimates. If these assumptions are violated, the inference for the calibration parameters can be systematically biased. In many applications, such as in dynamic material property experiments, many of the calibration inputs refer to measurement uncertainties. Here, we develop a metric for identifying overfitting of these measurement uncertainties, propose a prior capable of reducing this overfitting, and show how this leads to a diagnostic tool for validation of physical parameter inference. The approach is demonstrated for a benchmark example and applied for a material property application to perform inference on the equation of state parameters of tantalum.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Advanced Microscopic Energy Consumption Model for Automated Vehicle:Development, Calibration, Verification

The automated vehicle (AV) equipped with the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) system is expected to reduce the fuel consumption for the intelligent transportation system. This paper presents the Advanced ACC-Micro (AA-Micro) model, a new energy consumption model based on micro trajectory data, calibrated and verified by empirical data. Utilizing a commercial AV equipped with the ACC system as the test platform, experiments were conducted at the Columbus 151 Speedway, capturing data from multiple ACC and Human-Driven (HV) test runs. The calibrated AA-Micro model integrates features from traditional energy consumption models and demonstrates superior goodness of fit, achieving an impressive 90% accuracy in predicting ACC system energy consumption without overfitting. A comprehensive statistical evaluation of the AA-Micro model's applicability and adaptability in predicting energy consumption and vehicle trajectories indicated strong model consistency and reliability for ACC vehicles, evidenced by minimal variance in RMSE values and uniform RSS distributions. Conversely, significant discrepancies were observed when applying the model to HV data, underscoring the necessity for specialized models to accurately predict energy consumption for HV and ACC systems, potentially due to their distinct energy consumption characteristics.

Ma, Ke↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Improved Method for Coupling Hydrodynamics with Astrophysical Reaction Networks

Reacting astrophysical flows can be challenging to model, because of the difficulty in accurately coupling hydrodynamics and reactions. This can be particularly acute during explosive burning or at high temperatures where nuclear statistical equilibrium is established. We develop a new approach, based on the ideas of spectral deferred corrections (SDC) coupling of explicit hydrodynamics and stiff reaction sources as an alternative to operator splitting, that is simpler than the more comprehensive SDC approach we demonstrated previously. We apply the new method to a double-detonation problem with a moderately sized astrophysical nuclear reaction network and explore the time step size and reaction network tolerances, to show that the simplified-SDC approach provides improved coupling with decreased computational expense compared to traditional Strang operator splitting. This is all done in the framework of the Castro hydrodynamics code, and all algorithm implementations are freely available.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1974

Estimate of winter wheat yield from ERTS-1

A model for estimating wheat yield per acre has been applied to acreage estimates derived from ERTS-1 imagery to project the 1973 wheat yields for a ten county area in southwest Kansas. The results (41.04 million bushels) are within 3 per cent of the preharvest estimates for the same area prepared by the USDA Statistical Reporting Service (39.91 million bushels). The projection from ERTS data is based on a visual enumeration of all detectable wheat fields in the study area and was completed while the harvest was in progress. Visual identification of winter wheat is readily achieved by using a temporal sequence of images (band 5 for Sept.-Oct.; band 5 for Dec.-Jan.; and band 5 and 7 for March-April). Identification can be improved by stratifying the project area into subregions having more or less homogeneous agricultural practices and crop mixes. By doing this, small changes in the spectral appearance of wheat related to soil type, irrigation, etc. can be accounted for. The interpretation rules developed by visual analysis can be automated for rapid computer surveys.

Morain, S. A.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Modelling of physical influences in sea level records for vertical crustal movement detection

Attempts to specify and evaluate such physical influences are reviewed with the intention of identifying problem areas and promising approaches. An example of linear modelling based on air/water temperatures, atmospheric pressure, river discharges, geostrophic and/or local wind velocities, and including forced period terms to allow for the long period tides and Chandlerian polar motion is evaluated and applied to monthly mean sea levels recorded in Atlantic Canada. Refinement of the model to admit phase lag in the response to some of the driving phenomena is demonstrated. Spectral analysis of the residuals is employed to assess the model performance. The results and associated statistical parameters are discussed with emphasis on elucidating the sensitivity of the technique for detection of local episodic and secular vertical crustal movements, the problem areas most critical to the type of approach, and possible further developments.

Anderson, E. G.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Gain optimization with nonlinear controls

An algorithm has been developed for the analysis and design of controls for nonlinear systems. The technical approach is to use statistical linearization to model the nonlinear dynamics of a system. A covariance analysis is performed to determine the behavior of the dynamical system and a quadratic cost function. Expressions for the cost function and its derivatives are determined so that numerical optimization techniques can be applied to determine optimal feedback laws. The primary application for this report is centered about the design of controls for nominally linear systems but where the controls are saturated or limited by fixed constraints. The analysis is general however and numerical computation requires only that the specific nonlinearity be considered in the analysis.

Slater, G. L.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Clusters and cycles in the cosmic ray age distributions of meteorites

Statistically significant clusters in the cosmic ray exposure age distributions of some groups of iron and stone meteorites were observed, suggesting epochs of enhanced collision and breakups. Fourier analyses of the age distributions of chondrites reveal no significant periods, nor does the same analysis when applied to iron meteorite clusters.

Woodard, M. F.↗

NASA NTRS1991

The analysis of a rocket tomography measurement of the N2+3914A emission and N2 ionization rates in an auroral arc

Techniques were developed for recovering two-dimensional distributions of auroral volume emission rates from rocket photometer measurements made in a tomographic spin scan mode. These tomographic inversion procedures are based upon an algebraic reconstruction technique (ART) and utilize two different iterative relaxation techniques for solving the problems associated with noise in the observational data. One of the inversion algorithms is based upon a least squares method and the other on a maximum probability approach. The performance of the inversion algorithms, and the limitations of the rocket tomography technique, were critically assessed using various factors such as (1) statistical and non-statistical noise in the observational data, (2) rocket penetration of the auroral form, (3) background sources of emission, (4) smearing due to the photometer field of view, and (5) temporal variations in the auroral form. These tests show that the inversion procedures may be successfully applied to rocket observations made in medium intensity aurora with standard rocket photometer instruments. The inversion procedures have been used to recover two-dimensional distributions of auroral emission rates and ionization rates from an existing set of N2+3914A rocket photometer measurements which were made in a tomographic spin scan mode during the ARIES auroral campaign. The two-dimensional distributions of the 3914A volume emission rates recoverd from the inversion of the rocket data compare very well with the distributions that were inferred from ground-based measurements using triangulation-tomography techniques and the N2 ionization rates derived from the rocket tomography results are in very good agreement with the in situ particle measurements that were made during the flight. Three pre-prints describing the tomographic inversion techniques and the tomographic analysis of the ARIES rocket data are included as appendices.

Mcdade, Ian C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Eastern Asian Emissions of Anthropogenic Halocarbons Deduced from Aircraft Concentration Data

The Montreal Protocol restricts production of ozone-depleting halocarbons worldwide. Enforcement of the protocol has relied mainly on annual government statistics of production and consumption of these compounds (bottom-up approach). We show here that aircraft observations of ha1ocarbon:CO enhancement ratios on regional to continental scales can be used to infer halocarbon emissions, providing independent verification of the bottom-up approach. We apply this topdown approach to aircraft observations of Asian outflow &om the TRACE-P mission over the western Pacific (March-April 2001) and derive emissions from eastern Asia (China, Japan, and Korea). We derive an eastern Asian carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) source of 21.5 Gg yr(sup -1), several-fold larger than previous estimates and amounting to -30% of the global budget for this gas. Our emission estimate for CFC-11 from eastern Asia is 50% higher than inventories derived from manufacturing records. Our emission estimates for methyl chloroform (CH3CC13) and CFC-12 are in agreement with existing inventories. For halon 1211 we find only a strong local source originating from the Shanghai area. Our emission estimates for the above gases result in a approximately equal to 40% increase in the ozone depletion potential (ODP) of Asian emissions relative to previous estimates, corresponding to a approximately equal to 10% global increase in ODP.

Palmer, Paul I.↗

NASA NTRS2008

On-Orbit Multi-Field Wavefront Control with a Kalman Filter

A document describes a multi-field wavefront control (WFC) procedure for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) on-orbit optical telescope element (OTE) fine-phasing using wavefront measurements at the NIRCam pupil. The control is applied to JWST primary mirror (PM) segments and secondary mirror (SM) simultaneously with a carefully selected ordering. Through computer simulations, the multi-field WFC procedure shows that it can reduce the initial system wavefront error (WFE), as caused by random initial system misalignments within the JWST fine-phasing error budget, from a few dozen micrometers to below 50 nm across the entire NIRCam Field of View, and the WFC procedure is also computationally stable as the Monte-Carlo simulations indicate. With the incorporation of a Kalman Filter (KF) as an optical state estimator into the WFC process, the robustness of the JWST OTE alignment process can be further improved. In the presence of some large optical misalignments, the Kalman state estimator can provide a reasonable estimate of the optical state, especially for those degrees of freedom that have a significant impact on the system WFE. The state estimate allows for a few corrections to the optical state to push the system towards its nominal state, and the result is that a large part of the WFE can be eliminated in this step. When the multi-field WFC procedure is applied after Kalman state estimate and correction, the stability of fine-phasing control is much more certain. Kalman Filter has been successfully applied to diverse applications as a robust and optimal state estimator. In the context of space-based optical system alignment based on wavefront measurements, a KF state estimator can combine all available wavefront measurements, past and present, as well as measurement and actuation error statistics to generate a Maximum-Likelihood optimal state estimator. The strength and flexibility of the KF algorithm make it attractive for use in real-time optical system alignment when WFC alone cannot effectively align the system.

Lou, John↗

NASA NTRS2021

On the Nature of AGN and Star Formation Enhancement in thez=3.1 SSA22Protocluster: The HST WFC3 IR View

We examine possible environmental sources of the enhanced star formation and active galactic nucleus (AGN) activity in the z=3.09 SSA22 protocluster using Hubble WFC3 F160W (∼1.6μm) observations of the SSA22 field, including new observations centered on eight X-ray selected protocluster AGN. To investigate the role of mergers in the observed AGN and star formation enhancement, we apply both quantitative (Sérsic-fit and Gini–M20)and visual morphological classifications to F160W images of protocluster Lyman-break galaxies (LBGs) in the fields of the X-ray AGN and z∼3field LBGs in SSA22 and GOODS-N. We find no statistically significant differences between the morphologies and merger fractions of protocluster and field LBGs, though we are limited by small number statistics in the protocluster. We also fit the UV-to-near-IR spectral energy distributions of F160W-detected protocluster and field LBGs to characterize their stellar masses and star formation histories. We find that the mean protocluster LBG is a factor of∼2 times more massive and more attenuated than the mean z∼3field LBG. We take our results to suggest that ongoing mergers are not more common among protocluster LBGs than field LBGs, though protocluster LBGs appear to be more massive. We speculate that the larger mass of the protocluster LBGs contributes to the enhancement of SMBH mass and accretion rate in the protocluster, which in turn drives the observed protocluster AGN enhancement

Erik B. Monson↗

DOE OSTI2021

QED radiative corrections to neutrino-nucleon elastic scattering

Neutrino oscillation experiments at accelerator energies aim to establish CP violation in the neutrino sector by measuring the energy-dependent rate of $\nu_e$ appearance and $\nu_\mu$ disappearance in a $\nu_\mu$ beam. Extracting the correct oscillation rate demands control over QED radiative corrections at the percent level. Focusing on the critical charged-current neutrino-nucleon scattering process, we show that the cross section factorizes into two pieces. The first piece depends on hadron structure but is universal for $\nu_e$ and $\nu_\mu$, and hence constrained by high-statistics $\nu_\mu$ data. The second piece is nonuniversal and suffers large logarithm enhancements, but is computed to high precision using renormalization group improved perturbation theory. Our results provide a missing ingredient for the robust interpretation of current NOvA and T2K experiments, and can be applied to future experiments such as DUNE and HyperK.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗