Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Variability analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,585 records · Page 88

Integrate FARM with PID controllers: IES Simulation Ecosystem Control System Development

The FARM (Feasible Actuator Range Modifier) software module is a component of the RAVEN-based FORCE framework for analysis of Integrated Energy Systems (IES). FARM was designed to support the HERON software module in the solution of the optimal dispatch problem for IES units. As the result of HERON-FARM dispatch simulation, the set-point trajectories are optimized to meet constraints on both the production variables (i.e., the variables to be optimized such as the electrical power, the hydrogen production rate, etc.) and the process variables tied to the service life of equipment (e.g., steam flowrate, vessel pressure, turbine firing temperature, etc.) at a coarse time resolution (every 10 or 100 seconds) over long time horizons (several days or weeks). In case the operational constraints need to be met at finer time resolution, the computational burden of HERON-FARM would linearly increase with the sampling rate, and sub-optimal solutions might be obtained. System responses characterized by overshoots and damped oscillations temporarily violating the imposed constraints might occur during abrupt power transients. In this report, a hierarchical control system architecture for the operation of the Dynamic Energy Technology and Integration Laboratory (DETAIL) facility constructed at INL was proposed. First, the preliminary studies on the proposed control strategy for operating the facility and the designed PI controllers were reviewed. In particular, the current approach for generating the set-point trajectories was studied, and its limits were identified. To this aim, the inclusion of a Supervisory Control layer embedding a modified version of the FARM algorithm for preserving the system safe operation over both long and real-time horizons was proposed. In this way, FARM would be applied twice, i.e., the original version (“FARM Validator”) aiding the solution of the power dispatch problem, and the modified version (“FARM Supervisory” coordinating the PI controllers to address the real-time control tasks. Despite the kernel of the two modules is the same algorithm, their roles, tasks, and capabilities are quite different. A detailed description of the role of FARM at addressing low-level control tasks is provided, along with tentative operational procedures for training the models embedded into the algorithm by using the collected experimental data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Electric Cooking Equipment

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past three years, the objective of this work is to produce national datasets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover most of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. “Measures” refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Design Methods, Tools, and Data for Ceramic Solar Receivers

This report presents the development of tools and methods for evaluating the reliability and performance of ceramic materials in high temperature solar receivers. As Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies aim for higher operating temperatures to enhance efficiency and meet industrial process heat requirements, current high temperature metallic materials face challenges in maintaining structural integrity. This report explores advanced ceramics as a promising alternative, given their superior high temperature strength and lower thermal expansion, compared to metals. To address the need for effective ceramic receiver design tools, this report integrates statistical failure models of ceramics into the existing srlife tool: an open-source software package designed to estimate the life of high temperature CSP components. These failure models account for the inherent variability and flaw distribution in ceramics, as well as the impact of subcritical crack growth under high temperature cyclic loads. The report also presents experimental data collected for a commercially available ceramic material, SiC, and details the process of estimating reliability model parameters from these data. A comparative design analysis is then performed between ceramic (SiC) and metallic (current nickel-based superalloys A740H and A282) receiver. This comparison demonstrates that SiC receivers can achieve service life exceeding 30 years under high incident heat flux conditions, compared to just a few years for metallic receivers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Merged Aerosol Value-Added Product Report

The Merged Aerosol Value-Added Product (VAP) simplifies scientists’ use of Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility aerosol data by performing several tedious, time-consuming tasks for the users. First, the VAP identifies the best data available when multiple datastreams exist for a single geophysical quantity so that ARM users do not have to research this for themselves. Second, the VAP consolidates multiple ARM aerosol datastreams into a single file for ARM data users so that they do not have to download, open, and read multiple files for their analysis. Next, the VAP transforms all measurements onto a common one-hour timestamp. The one-hour resolution matches the time resolution of the slowest instrument. Instruments with faster sampling rates than one measurement per hour are averaged over the time interval. Finally, the VAP reads the QA/QC variables and marks data with known issues as missing, so that users do not have to spend excessive time cleaning data. This includes incorporating Data Quality Reports (DQRs) that exist at the time when the VAP data is generated. DQRs are reports filed by instrument mentors or data users that indicate a problem with the output data of individual instruments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating Deep Learning and Hydrodynamic Modeling to Improve the Great Lakes Forecast

The Laurentian Great Lakes, one of the world’s largest surface freshwater systems, pose a modeling challenge in seasonal forecast and climate projection. While physics-based hydrodynamic modeling is a fundamental approach, improving the forecast accuracy remains critical. In recent years, machine learning (ML) has quickly emerged in geoscience applications, but its application to the Great Lakes hydrodynamic prediction is still in its early stages. This work is the first one to explore a deep learning approach to predicting spatiotemporal distributions of the lake surface temperature (LST) in the Great Lakes. Our study shows that the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, trained with the limited data from hypothetical monitoring networks, can provide consistent and robust performance. The LSTM prediction captured the LST spatiotemporal variabilities across the five Great Lakes well, suggesting an effective and efficient way for monitoring network design in assisting the ML-based forecast. Furthermore, we employed an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) technique named SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to uncover how the features impact the LSTM prediction. Our XAI analysis shows air temperature is the most influential feature for predicting LST in the trained LSTM. The relatively large bias in the LSTM prediction during the spring and fall was associated with substantial heterogeneity of air temperature during the two seasons. In contrast, the physics-based hydrodynamic model performed better in spring and fall yet exhibited relatively large biases during the summer stratification period. Finally, we developed a statistical integration of the hydrodynamic modeling and deep learning results based on the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). The integration further enhanced prediction accuracy, suggesting its potential for next-generation Great Lakes forecast systems.

Xue, Pengfei (ORCID:000000025702421X)↗

Uncovering natural variation in root system architecture and growth dynamics using a robotics-assisted phenomics platform

The plant kingdom contains a stunning array of complex morphologies easily observed above-ground, but more challenging to visualize below-ground. Understanding the magnitude of diversity in root distribution within the soil, termed root system architecture (RSA), is fundamental in determining how this trait contributes to species adaptation in local environments. Roots are the interface between the soil environment and the shoot system and therefore play a key role in anchorage, resource uptake, and stress resilience. Previously, we presented the GLO-Roots (Growth and Luminescence Observatory for Roots) system to study the RSA of soil-grown Arabidopsis thaliana plants from germination to maturity (Rellán-Álvarez et al., 2015). In this study, we present the automation of GLO-Roots using robotics and the development of image analysis pipelines in order to examine the temporal dynamic regulation of RSA and the broader natural variation of RSA in Arabidopsis , over time. These datasets describe the developmental dynamics of two independent panels of accessions and reveal highly complex and polygenic RSA traits that show significant correlation with climate variables of the accessions’ respective origins.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Technology Enablers for Advanced Gasoline Compression Ignition Engines

To meet current emission regulations and increasingly demanding global fleet CO2 standards on fuel economy and future trends towards life cycle GHG emissions, advanced combustion engines remain significant in the passenger vehicle sector to achieve high efficiency and low emissions over the full operating range. Lean burn gasoline compression ignition (GCI) technology has shown to have the most potential in reaching these goals, although it faces challenges in the operating range. In this study, an advanced GCI engine is considered with the capability to operate under two combustion modes, namely low temperature combustion (LTC) and GCI. They are enabled with the use of two Hyundai in-house developed technologies; an advanced valve control mechanism known as continuously variable valve duration (CVVD) and a high-pressure gasoline injection system. At low load, the engine utilizes dual CVVD and dual CVVT (continuously variable valve timing) mechanisms for both intake and exhaust valvetrains to enable NVO (negative valve overlap) to trap hot residuals. The hot residuals enable low load auto-ignition, and the phasing control of that auto-ignition is achieved by varying the degrees of NVO, and in turn, the amount of hot residuals. This is done in real time with respect to the changes in engine loads or operating conditions, significantly improving cylinder-phasing control in LTC mode, and subsequently is able to realize a fuel economy gain and reduced emission benefits. Early direct injection during NVO or intake stroke is used to form homogenous or quasi-homogenous air-fuel mixture for LTC. At mid to high loads, late direct injection of gasoline or GCI mode is employed to take advantage of the high volatility and high resistance to auto-ignition of gasoline fuel, so that diesel-engine like high combustion efficiency can be achieved with lower soot emissions for the same NOx level as diesel combustion. In this paper, the key control and fueling technologies that enable this multiple mode combustion are introduced, and the resultant analysis on engine test and CFD simulation at LTC and GCI operating conditions are presented in detail.

Gasoline compression ignition, low temperature com↗

Measuring thermal diffusivity and gap conductance in uranium nitride and Zircaloy relevant for microreactor applications

Heat transfer across nuclear fuels and structural interfaces is an important factor for evaluating the performance of nuclear power systems. Specifically, heat generated as nuclear fuel fissions must be transported through the cladding material and through the reactor to reach the steam turbine for power generation. As new microreactor designs emerge, maximizing the efficiency of this heat transfer process becomes crucial to make them commercially viable. This article examines thermal diffusivity and gap conductance in uranium nitride (UN) fuel and Zircaloy-4 (Zry4) cladding using light flash analysis (LFA). Thermal diffusivity measurements were made on monolithic UN pellets and Zry4 exposed to carbon at peak operating temperatures of microreactors and show that carbon ingress has a minimal effect on thermal diffusivity when compared with identical materials not exposed to carbon. Evaluation of gap conductance at the UN-Zry4 interface was done using one-dimensional two-layer thermal transport models as a function of applied pressure. Here the results show that increasing pressure on the UN-Zry4 interface leads to gains in gap conductance per unit area in fuel-cladding assemblies at microreactor operating temperatures. While many other variables are expected to influence UN-Zry4 interfacial gap conductance (e.g. contact surface roughness, porosity, localized heating, environmental gas pressure), the work offers a demonstration of using a conventional LFA apparatus to determine this parameter at elevated temperatures.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Comprehensive Analysis of Model Parameter Uncertainty Influence on Evaluation of HVAC Operation to Mitigate Indoor Virus: A Case Study for an Office Building in a Cold and Dry Climate

Simulation-based studies of HVAC operation to mitigate indoor virus have been conducted to understand tradeoffs between indoor air quality (IAQ) and energy consumption. However, the influence of model parameter uncertainty in these studies has not been systematically quantified, which is critical when providing guidance to building operators. To address this gap, we identify 20 model parameters for a typical medium office building system in a cold and dry climate that can influence IAQ and energy consumption for indoor virus scenarios. Next, the distributions of the parameter values are estimated from literature and a set of simulation samples for three representative days is generated that simultaneously sample all of the parameters from their distributions. Two HVAC virus mitigation strategies are studied: increased filtration using MERV 13 filters and increased ventilation, via supply of 100% outdoor air into buildings. The model parameter uncertainty leads to significant variability in the results, particularly for the IAQ because of the highly uncertain virus generation rate. Use of 100% outdoor air can be beneficial for some uncertain scenarios on the hot day, but shows less IAQ improvement and/or significant energy increases on the other days. The virus removal efficiency and pressure drop of the HVAC filter, fan efficiency, and internal heat gain are the most important parameters to determining the tradeoffs of the two strategies. Our results demonstrate how this model parameter uncertainty analysis methodology can provide practical guidance to building operators.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A functional global sensitivity measure and efficient reliability sensitivity analysis with respect to statistical parameters

Sensitivity analysis and reliability assessment are two important aspects of structural and system safety. Epistemic uncertainty with respect to probabilistic model of input parameters due to lack of knowledge is present in many scarce-data applications and complicates the characterization of uncertainty in model response. In this article, we present two importance measures to evaluate the impact of distribution parameters on the probability distribution function (PDF) of the output and the failure probability. The epistemic uncertainty associated with the distribution parameters is modeled as random variables. Additionally, a modified extended polynomial chaos expansion (MEPCE) approach is introduced in which aleatory and epistemic random variables are modeled and propagated simultaneously while allowing the separate assessment for any single epistemic variable. A MEPCE-based kernel density estimation (KDE) construction provides a composite map from each epistemic variable to the response PDF. The functional global sensitivity index of the PDF with respect to the distribution parameters is thus derived, as a function of output, which is both more informative and more efficient than standard scalar sensitivity measures. Reliability sensitivity indices can be readily evaluated by integrating the global sensitivity index function over the failure zone. Three illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Fast and flexible analysis of direct dark matter search data with machine learning

We present the results from combining machine learning with the profile likelihood fit procedure, using data from the Large Underground Xenon (LUX) dark matter experiment. This approach demonstrates reduction in computation time by a factor of 30 when compared with the previous approach, without loss of performance on real data. We establish its flexibility to capture non-linear correlations between variables (such as smearing in light and charge signals due to position variation) by achieving equal performance using pulse areas with and without position-corrections applied. Its efficiency and scalability furthermore enables searching for dark matter using additional variables without significant computational burden. We demonstrate this by including a light signal pulse shape variable alongside more traditional inputs such as light and charge signal strengths. Furthermore, this technique can be exploited by future dark matter experiments to make use of additional information, reduce computational resources needed for signal searches and simulations, and make inclusion of physical nuisance parameters in fits tractable.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

IGA-MPM: The Isogeometric Material Point Method

In this work, we propose the use of Isogeometric Analysis (IGA) within the context of the Material Point Method (MPM), and refer to the approach as IGA-MPM. We use the idea of IGA, and its instantiation based on Non-Uniform Rational B-Splines (NURBS), to build higher-order accurate and smooth approximation for MPM. Higher-order smoothness yields a continuous representation of the strain rate, and, as a result, prevents jumps in the stress and other history variables as the material points cross the element boundaries. Furthermore, NURBS can exactly represent all conic sections and the corresponding symmetries in the solution, which may be important in some applications. Several numerical examples of increasing complexity are presented, and show the ability of IGA-MPM to eliminate the well known cell-crossing instability of the conventional MPM. In addition, the examples presented demonstrate improved accuracy, convergence, and symmetry preservation of IGA-MPM compared to the conventional MPM, both for rectilinear and curved geometries.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Assessment of Demographic, Genetic, and Imaging Variables Associated With Brain Resilience and Cognitive Resilience to Pathological Tau in Patients With Alzheimer Disease

Importance: Better understanding is needed of the degree to which individuals tolerate Alzheimer disease (AD)-like pathological tau with respect to brain structure (brain resilience) and cognition (cognitive resilience). Objective: To examine the demographic (age, sex, and educational level), genetic (APOE-ε4 status), and neuroimaging (white matter hyperintensities and cortical thickness) factors associated with interindividual differences in brain and cognitive resilience to tau positron emission tomography (PET) load and to changes in global cognition over time. Design, setting, an participants: In this cross-sectional, longitudinal study, tau PET was performed from June 1, 2014, to November 30, 2017, and global cognition monitored for a mean [SD] interval of 2.0 [1.8] years at 3 dementia centers in South Korea, Sweden, and the United States. The study included amyloid-β-positive participants with mild cognitive impairment or AD dementia. Data analysis was performed from October 26, 2018, to December 11, 2019. Exposures: Standard dementia screening, cognitive testing, brain magnetic resonance imaging, amyloid-β PET and cerebrospinal fluid analysis, and flortaucipir (tau) labeled with fluor-18 (18F) PET. Main outcomes and measures: Separate linear regression models were performed between whole cortex [18F]flortaucipir uptake and cortical thickness, and standardized residuals were used to obtain a measure of brain resilience. The same procedure was performed for whole cortex [18F]flortaucipir uptake vs Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) as a measure of cognitive resilience. Bivariate and multivariable linear regression models were conducted with age, sex, educational level, APOE-ε4 status, white matter hyperintensity volumes, and cortical thickness as independent variables and brain and cognitive resilience measures as dependent variables. Linear mixed models were performed to examine whether changes in MMSE scores over time differed as a function of a combined brain and cognitive resilience variable. Results: A total of 260 participants (145 [55.8%] female; mean [SD] age, 69.2 [9.5] years; mean [SD] MMSE score, 21.9 [5.5]) were included in the study. In multivariable models, women (standardized β = -0.15, P = .02) and young patients (standardized β = -0.20, P = .006) had greater brain resilience to pathological tau. Higher educational level (standardized β = 0.23, P < .001) and global cortical thickness (standardized β = 0.23, P < .001) were associated with greater cognitive resilience to pathological tau. Linear mixed models indicated a significant interaction of brain resilience × cognitive resilience × time on MMSE (β [SE] = -0.235 [0.111], P = .03), with steepest slopes for individuals with both low brain and cognitive resilience. Conclusions and relevance: Results of this study suggest that women and young patients with AD have relative preservation of brain structure when exposed to neocortical pathological tau. Interindividual differences in resilience to pathological tau may be important to disease progression because participants with both low brain and cognitive resilience had the most rapid cognitive decline over time.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Analysis of Respirator Cartridge Performance Testing on a Hanford AN Tank Farm Exhauster Slipstream

Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) conducted tests on two types of chemical cartridges for use in air purifying respirators to determine the period of time that the cartridges would provide adequate performance to protect workers when exposed to a mixture of Chemicals of Potential Concern (COPCs) from vapors exiting the exhauster at the Hanford AN tank farm. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) identifies cartridge testing as a valid approach for establishing cartridge change schedule. Testing is commonly applied in situations where mixtures of COPCs exist and where other approaches, such as manufacturer recommendations and modeling, are less reliable. The tests were designed and conducted to assure measurement and/or control of the key variables OSHA identified as important to estimate cartridge service life, including temperature, humidity, COPC concentration, breathing rate, and cartridge adsorption capacity. Testing was conducted from September 30−October 2, 2016, on a slipstream from the AN Exhauster under static conditions fed to a respirator cartridge test stand developed by WRPS in collaboration with HiLine Engineering (Richland, Washington). Multipurpose respirator cartridges, SCOTT 7422-SD1 and SCOTT 7422-SC1 (SCOTT Safety, Monroe, North Carolina) were assessed on separate days. Sample media (sorbent tubes) were used to collect samples of the vapor stream entering and exiting the respirator cartridge and were subsequently analyzed for COPC concentrations. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory was tasked with conducting an independent analysis of the analytical results and making recommendations based on the results for respiratory cartridge performance and service life.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

What can surface wind observations tell us about interannual variation in wind energy output?

The past decade of wind power growth was supported by capacity factor improvements and associated cost reductions. But are higher capacity factors a technology success story or, as suggested by recent research, has the influence of technology been overstated by ignoring positive surface wind speed trends? The answer could influence estimates of wind energy's cost and even future deployment rates. We find that US surface wind speed observations imply a 2.6% improvement in capacity factors from 2010 to 2019. Yet newer vintages of wind plants have recorded capacity factors that are ~25% larger than plants built close to 2010. It follows that technological factors and improved site quality, not higher wind speeds, drove most of the improvement in capacity factors. Additionally, we match hundreds of meteorological stations to nearby (< 25 km) wind plants and compare annual estimated generation, based on a function of surface wind speed observations, to annual recorded generation. Researchers rely on this publicly available surface data because measurements co-located with wind plants are generally considered proprietary. Our analysis addresses a research gap: interannual variation in observed surface wind speeds is rarely compared to observed data at wind plant locations and turbine heights. We find that despite its common use for this purpose, generation estimates based on publicly available surface observational data provide a poor proxy for interannual variability in recorded wind generation. These findings suggest that caution is generally needed when researchers use surface wind speed measurements to investigate long-term wind energy trends.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Quantification of the REE 3+ aqua ions and chloride species in aqueous fluids by in situ Raman spectroscopy using perturbations of the water band

Acidic NaCl-rich aqueous fluids play a crucial role in forming hydrothermal rare earth elements (REE) mineral deposits. Aqueous REE mobility is mostly controlled by the stabilities of REE 3+ and REE chloride species. Our current knowledge of REE speciation is based on solubility data, thermodynamic models and in situ spectroscopic measurements, sometimes coupled with molecular simulations. Here, in this study, we investigate Nd and Yb speciation in pH2 Cl-bearing solutions at 25 °C and 0.1 MPa with variable Cl/REE ratios using Raman Spectroscopy in solutions with 0.1 to 0.6 mol/kg NdCl 3 or YbCl 3 and 0.2 to 3.2 mol/kg NaCl. Due to the challenges in resolving the REE-Cl band, we developed a new method using the water vibrational mode and multivariate curve resolution (MCR) analysis. The Raman spectra for the vibrational band of water (2700 to 3900 cm –1 ) were collected at 25 °C and fitted by three Gaussian sub-peaks, then quantified using MCR analysis to de-convolute the water band into bulk H 2 O and the perturbations caused by of Cl – , REE 3+ , and REE chloride species. REE speciation based on the perturbations of the water band indicates that REE 3+ aqua ions dominate acidic solutions at 25 °C, but up to ~20 mol% YbCl 2+ forms at high YbCl 3 concentrations. The new method is promising for quantifying in situ speciation of the REE 3+ aqua ions and REE chloride species in aqueous fluids while providing information on the hydration of ions. This method improves our molecular level understanding of REE aqueous species stability and their role in REE mobilization during fluid-rock interaction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Stochastic room temperature creep of 316 L stainless steel

The creep behavior of 316 L stainless steel at room temperature was evaluated as a function of time and applied stress using a new high-throughput approach. Several common creep models were evaluated against the observations, leading to deeper analysis of a stress-dependent modified logarithmic creep model. Within this model, multiple sources of uncertainty were compared. Aleatoric stochastic variation between samples under nominally identical conditions was identified as the primary contributor to uncertainty in creep response. Under any particular set of conditions, the sample-to-sample variability in creep strain was as high as a factor of two, highlighting the engineering importance of characterizing large statistical datasets. The model's extrapolation capabilities were assessed by comparing predictions derived from calibration on partial, shorter-duration subsets of the data. In conclusion, these findings underscore the importance of accounting for stochastic effects in predictive modeling of aging phenomena.

High-throughput↗

A method for predicting failure statistics for steady state elevated temperature structural components

This paper presents the initial development of a high temperature life prediction method that accounts for the variability in the material properties of Grade 91 steel. The method accounts for material variability by fitting a variable 3-parameter Weibull distribution to experimental rupture data and accounts for the variability of creep deformation on the steady-state stresses via a Monte Carlo approach. To ensure reasonable computational times, the model represents the material as an extremely viscous Stokes fluid with a non-Newtonian viscosity, therefore solving the stress relaxation problem with a steady, static, instead of transient, analysis. Furthermore, the complete statistical analysis combines this model for creep deformation with a probabilistic model for creep rupture to evaluate the probability of premature failure for a set of sample problems, comparing the predicted failure statistics to the design life predicted by the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code rules.

42 ENGINEERING↗