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DOE OSTI2025

Physics-informed machine learning for building performance simulation-A review of a nascent field

Building performance simulation (BPS) is critical for understanding building dynamics and behavior, analyzing the performance of the built environment, optimizing energy efficiency, improving demand flexibility, and enhancing building resilience. However, conducting BPS is not trivial. Traditional BPS relies on accurate building energy models, which are primarily physics-based and heavily dependent on detailed building information, expert knowledge, and case-by-case model calibrations, significantly limiting their scalability. With the development of sensing technology and the increased availability of data, there is growing attention and interest in data-driven BPS. However, purely data-driven models often suffer from limited generalization ability and a lack of physical consistency, resulting in poor performance in real-world applications. To address these limitations, recent studies have begun integrating physics priors into data-driven models, a methodology known as physics-informed machine learning (PIML). PIML is an emerging field where its definitions, methodologies, evaluation criteria, application scenarios, and future directions remain open. To bridge those gaps, this study systematically reviews the state-of-the-art PIML for BPS, offering a comprehensive definition of PIML and comparing it to traditional BPS approaches regarding data requirements, modeling effort, performance, and computational cost. We also summarize the commonly used methodologies, validation approaches, application domains, available data sources, open-source packages, and testbeds. In addition, this study provides a general guideline for selecting appropriate PIML models based on BPS applications. Finally, this study identifies key challenges and outlines future research directions, providing a solid foundation and valuable insights to advance R&D of PIML in BPS.

Jiang, Zixin↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reliability metrics and their management implications for open pond algae cultivation

The prevalence of contaminating organisms in outdoor algae cultivation, with the often-associated dramatic crop failures, necessitates the need for metrics describing production system reliability. Standard metrics for algae cultivation reliability are critically needed to be able to map improvements in operational parameters, but do not currently exist. In this work, we present a set of standard metrics including mean time to failure (MTTF) and mean time between failures (MTBF) as the basis for the calculation of pond failure rate (FR) and reliability coefficient (RC). Metrics associated with the numbers of contaminating organisms such as abundance ratio (AR), prevalence of infection (PI), and mean intensity of infection (MII) are also relevant. These metrics, based on measured experimental values of outdoor pond performance during the Algae Testbed Public-Private Partnership (ATP3) Unified Field Studies (UFS), provide a basis for quantifying pond failure and provide insight into potential pond management and contaminant mitigation strategies. From these reliability metrics applied to this dataset, we are able to link operational parameters, such as harvest frequency and inoculum source, to pond reliability for different algae strains and seasons, and from an assessment of AR, provide contamination thresholds beyond which a culture may be unrecoverable. Ultimately, the implementation of widely-practiced and simple-to-calculate algae pond reliability metrics calculated from rapid and easy to collect data or observations will reduce risk and uncertainty in large-scale algae deployment and aid in the development of integrated pest management (IPM) strategies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of integrated screening, cultivar optimization, and verification research (DISCOVR): A coordinated research-driven approach to improve microalgal productivity, composition, and culture stability for commercially viable biofuels production

To address major knowledge gaps and barriers to the commercial development of algal biomass for biofuels and co-products, a collaborative consortium, Development of Integrated Screening, Cultivar Optimization, and Verification Research (DISCOVR), was established in 2016. Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO), this consortium constitutes a partnership between four DOE national laboratories - Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) - and the Arizona Center for Algae Technology and Innovation (AzCATI) at Arizona State University. To address the barriers of strain selection for achieving high seasonal productivities with a suitable composition and culture resilience, a tiered strain down-selection pipeline is implemented. At Tier I, the temperature and salinity tolerance of strains is determined in flask cultures; at Tier II, the areal biomass productivity and composition is determined in climate-simulation photobioreactors; at Tier III, the productivity and culture stability are determined in outdoor raceways. The top performing strains move forward to long-term testing at the algae testbed site at AzCATI to generate annual biomass productivity data. Concurrent to the strain down-selection in the DISCOVR pipeline, hypotheses for increasing biomass productivity, shifting biomass composition to enhance intrinsic value, and improving culture stability and resistance to pests are also tested. Techno-economic analyses are carried out to determine whether promising findings from laboratory studies or proposed modifications in outdoor pond cultivation conditions translate into reductions in the minimum biomass selling price (MBSP). Notably, in the three years following the launch of DISCOVR, annual biomass productivity has increased from 11.7 to 17.6 g m -2 day -1 , resulting in an MBSP decrease from 824 to 611 $ ton -1 .

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A streamlined approach to characterize microalgae strains for biomass productivity under dynamic climate simulation conditions

Screening microalgae strains under static light and temperature flask conditions cannot directly quantify the biomass productivities of algae growing in the dynamically fluctuating light and temperature conditions of outdoor ponds. In this effort, we describe a testing pipeline that screens for productivity under climate simulated conditions. A validated, miniaturized Laboratory Environmental Algae Pond Simulator (mini-LEAPS) photobioreactor was used to determine optimal medium salinities and biomass productivities of cold-tolerant microalgae collected from Arctic, subarctic, Antarctic, and subalpine habitats. Strains characterized in this effort include: Chlorella antarctica UTEX1959, Chlorella sp. UTEXSNO69, Chloromonas rosae UTEXSNO11, Phaeodactylum tricornutum UTEX646, and Stichococcus minutus CCALA727. Observed productivities of the characterized strains ranged from 1.74 ± 0.25 to 8.18 ± 0.81 g m –2 day –1 (as ash-free dry weight). For each strain, a temperature tolerance profile was generated to identify the most appropriate season (s) for cultivation. The two most promising strains, Chlorella sp. UTEX SNO69 and P. tricornutum UTEX646, were tested alongside the DISCOVR winter benchmark strain Monoraphidium minutum 26B-AM in outdoor open ponds at the PNNL Algae Testbed (PAT) in Arizona. Further, under cold-season outdoor pond conditions, Chlorella sp. UTEXSNO69 achieved average areal biomass productivities of 8.21 ± 0.50 g m –2 day –1 , not significantly different from that of the benchmark strain (8.52 ± 0.43 g m –2 day –1 , p > 0.05). Under spring outdoor pond conditions, P. tricornutum UTEX646 achieved average areal biomass productivities 10.34 ± 0.27 g m –2 day –1 , not significantly different from that of the benchmark (10.07 ± 0.50 g m –2 day –1 ) under the tested conditions (p > 0.05). The streamlined pipeline was thus demonstrated to successfully characterize productive microalgae strains for outdoor deployment by weeding out algae strains that were not productive under the tested dynamic light and temperature conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The molten salt tritium transport experiment: A pumped fluoride salt loop for hydrogen isotope experimentation

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) and fusion reactors propose to use molten salts as coolants and breeder blanket materials, respectively. Tritium, however, poses safety concerns in both reactor types due to its ability to permeate through reactor materials and potential for environmental release. This manuscript addresses the tritium transport phenomena in molten salts and presents the design and analysis of the Molten Salt Tritium Transport Experiment (MSTTE). MSTTE is a forced-convection fluoride salt loop intended to measure hydrogen isotope permeation through structural materials in a flowing salt system. In the first phase, MSTTE will use FLiNaK salt and deuterium as surrogates for FLiBe and tritium, with future plans to utilize tritium and FLiBe. MSTTE couples a Copenhagen Atomics pumped salt loop with an external test section that introduces hydrogen isotopes into the loop and measures transport phenomena. The Hydrogen Injection System (HIS) controls hydrogen isotope introduction into the molten salt loop. Here, the permeation test section measures the permeation rate through stainless steel tubing in contact with flowing salt. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis ensures fully developed salt flow in the permeation test section. MSTTE is modeled with MELCOR-TMAP to predict the permeation rate as a function of experimental variables such as source term, salt flow rate, and salt temperature. Results indicate that the source term is the only parameter with a significant effect on the permeation rate. Pressure drop analysis suggests that the loop should operate below 200 LPM to maintain a pressure drop below 200 kPa. Additionally, finite-element analysis assesses thermal stress during loop operation to ensure the experiment's safe design. MSTTE will provide semi-integral data on tritium transport phenomena in molten salts and serve as a testbed for advancing molten salt technology.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A method for assessing economic, environmental, and reliability tradeoffs of interregional transmission connecting ERCOT (the Texas grid) to the eastern and western grids

Reliable development of the power grid is an evolving concern for humanity due to extreme weather that frequently threatens power sector infrastructure. The state of Texas is a uniquely structured testbed for grid planners to study when looking for solutions to development, innovation, and overcoming such challenges. Because of its size and islanded structure, Texas is small enough to model, but big enough to matter. Texas is a global leader in energy production, energy consumption, and maintains an unusually diverse fuel mix. In addition, the state has experienced winter freezes, heat waves, wind storms, droughts and floods that have threatened power sector infrastructure or caused recent blackouts and calls for demand side conservation. One of the most devastating of these events was the North American winter storm, dubbed “Winter Storm Uri” by the Weather Channel, that froze the region in February 2021 and led to an extended power outage event that put the majority of Texan residents in darkness for days. While preparing to avoid such outage events in the future, various tools have been proposed to improve grid reliability, including energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. An additional option would be to develop interregional transmission that connects the Texas grid to other national grids. To assess the merits of this idea, we developed a novel, universally-applicable and internationally-relevant framework to study how the Texas grid would evolve alongside access to various interregional ties. This method allows us to stress the synthetic grid structure and analyze how it would respond to the shock of a simulated winter storm event. Our method leverages open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX to synthesize unique zonal grid data, construct a consolidated network of model regions, and simulate different developmental pathways of capacity expansion and operational dispatch. We demonstrate our method with an analysis connecting the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid that serves most of Texas, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), the grid that serves the western half of the contiguous U.S., and the Eastern Interconnect, the grid that serves the eastern half of the contiguous U.S. Our results indicate that the cost-optimal capacity of interregional transmission connecting the ERCOT grid to other grids lies between 9–13 GW assuming baseline conditions. Building this amount of connecting capacity in one or multiple directions lowers the costs and emissions of development and operation by up to $16 billion and 257 million metric tonnes (MMT) respectively. Additionally, our results show that the interregional connections between ERCOT and other national grids reduce the amount of total load shed required through mild winter storm events. However, our results also show that there is a threshold of very extreme winter storm conditions, spanning multiple service areas, above which the connections exacerbate resource adequacy problems. Therefore, the results indicate that the connections need to be carefully planned alongside the rest of the grid infrastructure to avoid over-reliance on specific resources or technology options.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integration of renewable energy generation and storage systems for emissions reduction in an islanded campus microgrid

Microgrid connected building communities are projected to play an integral part in the clean energy transition. These types of systems, when integrated with distributed energy resources (DERs) such as combined heat and power (CHP), district heating and cooling, renewable generation, and energy storage, can provide clean, reliable power to critical facilities and vulnerable communities. The intermittent nature of renewable generation is a challenge when integrating renewables into any grid system, but particularly in islanded microgrids. The University of Texas at Austin (UT) operates an islanded microgrid powered by a CHP plant, while also utilizing district heating and cooling systems and thermal energy storage (TES). High fidelity operating data was used to develop a validated reduced order model of UT’s integrated campus energy systems to serve as a testbed for use in a case study. Hypothetical renewable energy installations on land owned by UT in west Texas were modeled and integrated into the validated campus models along with battery energy storage (BES). Simulations showed that a combination of renewable energy from wind, and optimally controlled 24-hour thermal and battery storage systems could reduce carbon dioxide emissions on campus by 45.4%. The additional retrofit of burner systems to utilize hydrogen natural gas blends resulted in an overall annual emissions reduction of 54.7%. Carbon capture and storage eliminated the majority of the remaining emissions with increased plant energy expenditure. The presented simulations display the practical limitations of a CHP system complemented by renewable generation and short-term storage in eliminating emissions. Furthermore, results highlight the need for further research and development in long duration storage technologies and hydrogen fueled turbines to increase penetration of renewable energy and reduce emissions.

CHP↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards robust surrogate models: Benchmarking machine learning approaches to expediting phase field simulations of brittle fracture

Data-driven approaches have the potential to make modeling complex, nonlinear physical phenomena significantly more computationally tractable. For example, computational modeling of fracture is a core challenge where machine learning techniques have the potential to provide a much needed speedup that would enable progress in areas such as multi-scale modeling and uncertainty quantification. Currently, phase field modeling (PFM) of fracture is one such approach that offers a convenient variational formulation to model crack nucleation, branching and propagation. To date, machine learning techniques have shown promise in approximating PFM simulations. While standard fracture benchmarks represent realistic scenarios frequently observed in practice, they typically do not provide sufficiently challenging tests for data-driven methods. Here, to address this gap, we introduce a challenging dataset based on PFM simulations designed to benchmark and advance ML methods for fracture modeling. This dataset includes three energy decomposition methods, two boundary conditions, and 1000 random initial crack configurations for a total of 6000 simulations. Each sample contains 100 time steps capturing the temporal evolution of the crack field. Alongside this dataset, we also implement and evaluate Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINN), Fourier Neural Operators (FNO), and UNet models as baselines, and explore the impact of ensembling strategies on prediction accuracy. With this combination of our dataset and baseline models drawn from the literature we aim to provide a standardized and challenging benchmark for evaluating machine learning approaches to solid mechanics. Our results highlight both the promise and limitations of popular current models, and demonstrate the utility of this dataset as a testbed for advancing machine learning in fracture mechanics research.

Benchmark dataset↗

DOE OSTI2025

Protecting honey bees through microbiome engineering

Honey bees are indispensable insects. Their pollination services support modern agriculture and natural ecosystems. Managed honey bee colonies face increasing threats to their survival, ranging from environmental stressors that include agrochemicals to infestations of arthropod pests and infections with microbial pathogens. Like humans, honey bees have a native gut microbiome that supports their health. However, the bee gut microbiome has a simpler composition than the gut microbiome of mammals, and its main constituent bacterial species can be easily cultured outside of the host. Furthermore, this experimental tractability and the need for new methods for protecting hive health have made honey bees a testbed for synthetic microbiomes augmented with probiotic bacteria and engineered DNA. Here, we discuss the natural benefits of bee gut bacteria, recent progress in genetically modifying these bacteria, and how symbiont-mediated RNA interference and other microbiome engineering approaches can boost bee immunity and suppress bee pathogens and parasites. Finally, we discuss how emerging methods for microbiome engineering and biocontainment could be applied to honey bees and used to address challenges in translating these proof-of-principle achievements into safe and effective technologies for field applications at scale.

Biological and medical sciences↗

DOE OSTI2021

What are the Impacts on the HVAC System when it Provides Frequency Regulation? – A Comprehensive Case Study with a Multi-Zone Variable Air Volume (VAV) System

Heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems in commercial buildings have proven to be a great asset for providing secondary frequency regulation (FR) service to the power grid. However, how the provision of FR service affects the HVAC system Quality of Service (QOS) is still largely unknown. In particular, there exists a controversy regarding the energy efficiency impact. This paper investigates how a HVAC system performance and its associated controls are impacted during and after the FR service. For the assessment, we developed a dynamic Modelica-based medium office building model as a virtual testbed with the Air Handling Unit (AHU) fans providing the FR service. Different regulation capacities (demand levels) and standard test signals under various load profiles in the U.S. are considered. The results show that FR has little or no impact on the HVAC operation and occupant thermal comfort while the building is providing the service if an appropriate regulation capacity is pre-determined. However, if the regulation capacity is overestimated, the quality of the FR service provided by the HVAC system and the HVAC energy efficiency will be affected due to the equipment operating constraints. In addition, the AHU supply air temperature fluctuates, and the controller cannot maintain the desired setpoint as the FR magnitude is increased. After the FR service time, the system takes a certain period to return to normal operation. The recovery period extends with the increase in the FR magnitude. For this case study, there exists a control conflict between the FR control and the existing HVAC control (from ASHRAE Guideline 36-2018) during high load conditions, causing the fan speed to saturate. The fan power consumption could increase significantly; up to 77% increase compared to the baseline was observed. This case study demonstrates that the HVAC system controls need to be enhanced and adapted to minimize the interaction between the FR controller and the indoor environmental controls in order to preserve the HVAC system QOS while (during and after) providing satisfactory FR service.

Lu, Xing↗

DOE OSTI2021

Active learning strategy for high fidelity short-term data-driven building energy forecasting

The quality of a data-driven model is heavily dependent on the quality of data. Data from building operation often have data bias problems, which means that the data sample is collected in a way that some members of the intended data population are less likely to be included than others. Data-driven energy forecasting models built on such data hence are biased and could lead to large forecasting errors. Active learning—an effective method to defying data bias—is rarely studied or applied in the area of data-driven building energy forecasting modeling. This paper attempts to fill this gap and explores the application of active learning in data-driven building energy forecasting. The developed strategy in this paper efficiently generate informative training data within a time budget and uses block design to passively consider weather disturbances. The developed active learning strategy is applied and evaluated in both virtual and real-building testbeds against traditional data-driven methods. Via these virtual and real-building evaluation cases, we have demonstrated that the data bias problem typically exists in building operation data is resolved by applying the developed active learning strategy. Furthermore, building energy forecasting models trained from data generated from the active learning strategy have shown improved performances in both model accuracy and model extendibility perspectives. The effectiveness of the block design module is also validated to effectively consider the impact of weather conditions on active learning design.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven building energy modeling with feature selection and active learning for data predictive control

Three gaps impede the development of cost-effective and accurate data-driven building energy modeling/models (DBEM) for energy forecasting and predictive control strategies. Gap 1: data bias is common in building operation data, but this topic is hardly studied in DBEM; Gap 2: high data dimensionality is common in DBEM, but a systematic and scalable methodology is lacking to solve the problem; Gap 3: the interactions between data bias and high dimensionality have not been systematically studied for DBEM and predictive control in buildings. In this work, to address the three gaps mentioned above, we develop a framework that integrates active learning and feature selection for DBEM used for whole building data predictive control (or DPC, which is a branch of model predictive control). The framework provides a systematic methodology and automatic workflow that starts with raw data from building automation systems to the establishment of data-driven energy models for DPC controllers. The developed strategies and framework are evaluated in a virtual testbed based on EnergyPlus and BCVTB. Improved performance and reduced computational complexity are observed from the DBEM built with the developed framework, as well as the DPC controller based on that DBEM, indicating the effectiveness of the developed framework.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Field validation of data-driven BSDF and peak extraction models for light-scattering fabric shades

Shading and daylighting systems affect cooling, heating, and lighting energy use by modulating solar radiation through the building façade. Characterizing shading systems holistically and accurately helps designers and engineers evaluate shading systems to achieve energy and non-energy performance goals. These complex fenestration systems can be modeled using Bidirectional Scattering Distribution Functions (BSDF), which map incident radiation to hemispherical distributions of outgoing radiation. Data-driven, tabulated BSDFs are derived from interpolated goniophotometer measured data, then sampled during the raytracing calculation. A peak extraction (PE) algorithm was developed to circumvent limits in BSDF angular resolution, where the specular peak is extracted during simulation by evaluating the BSDF in the through direction and surrounding region. The objective of this study was to validate this measurement and modeling workflow using field monitored data from a full scale testbed with eleven installed fabrics of different weaves, openness factors, and colors and assess the accuracy of the workflow under different adaptation and contrast conditions. Test conditions were limited to clear sky conditions with the sun in the field of view. Results showed that, for tensor tree datasets, vertical illuminance, solar luminance (2.5° apex), and daylight glare probability (DGP) were predicted to within a mean bias error (MBE) error of -456 lx (-12.3%), -3.46e5 (-38.4%), and -0.042 (-7.8%) when full PE occurred. With a binary classification of glare/ no glare, DGP was predicted accurately with a true positive rate of 0.98 and true negative rate of 1.0 using tensor tree data and less accurately with Klems BSDF data, particularly for cases of no glare. The workflow may be of insufficient accuracy to distinguish borderline performance between fabrics using the four-point glare scale, particularly under low adaptation, high contrast daylit conditions. Errors were due to reductions in peak shape and intensity across the BSDF interpolation and data reduction workflow. Future work is needed to better preserve measurement fidelity during interpolation and sampling, which in turn will improve PE performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Large-scale simulation-based parametric analysis of an optimal precooling strategy for demand flexibility in a commercial office building

Achieving success with grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) is closely tied to the utilization of flexible loads. A valuable strategy involves the implementation of precooling techniques before high-demand events, such as peak hours, by adjusting zone air temperature setpoints. This leads to a reduction in thermal loads and peak electricity demand during these times, as the building’s thermal mass stores and subsequently releases thermal energy. However, the effectiveness of the pre-cooling optimization is highly contingent on specific conditions such as building thermal properties, weather conditions, utility rate structure, HVAC equipment sizing, etc. Therefore, investigating the impacts of these condition-specific factors is crucial, especially when considering precooling strategies that utilize thermal mass in commercial buildings. In this paper, we first devised a novel heuristic control approach that incorporates parameterized optimal precooling thermostat schedules to enhance demand flexibility in a commercial office building. Subsequently, we conducted a thorough performance evaluation of this control strategy. Here, the optimal thermostat schedule was parameterized using three optimization variables: the precooling start time, the precooling end time, and the precooling temperature setpoint. Utilizing the DOE medium-sized office building as the virtual testbed, we showed that the parameterized schedule effectively approximates model predictive control and requires drastically reduced computational overhead. In addition, we investigated the impact of different influencing factors on the optimal precooling strategy. These factors include building thermal mass, outdoor air conditions, and energy price profiles. Using high-performance computing, we simulated a total of 225 scenarios, consisting of three levels of thermal mass, five typical outdoor air temperature profiles, and fifteen time-of-use price plans. The results demonstrate that optimal thermostat scheduling could save substantial energy cost in medium-sized office buildings with heavy thermal mass but with some energy penalty. Although the potential for cost savings is lower in buildings with low and medium thermal mass, the energy penalty remains consistent in all three thermal mass scenarios. The study also highlights the need to account for zone diversity and recognize that a one-size-fits-all-zone setpoint schedule may not be suitable for all zones and can lead to unnecessary energy wastage. Furthermore, the results highlight that while outdoor air conditions play a role in cost and energy performance, the cooling load exerts a more immediate and substantial influence on cost savings in precooling strategies. Although cost savings are comparable under certain conditions with the same cooling load, observed deviations in energy penalty indicate potential disparities in the efficiency of the HVAC system during the load-shifting process. In addition, the duration of peak pricing and the ratio between peak and off-peak times exhibit clear correlations with cost savings and energy consumption, aligning with intuitive expectations. These findings offer valuable insights for optimizing precooling strategies in office buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy efficiency in industrial drying: A hybrid ultrasonic system with a novel dynamic optimization framework

Drying processes are among the most energy-consuming operations in industrial and manufacturing settings, demanding strategic selection, design, and control for enhanced efficiency. Advancing drying technologies is critical for improving sustainability, lowering energy use, reducing carbon emissions, and minimizing waste. This study explores two innovative strategies aimed at transforming drying processes into sustainable, low-carbon systems by reducing energy consumption, minimizing waste, and maintaining a strong emphasis on preserving product quality. The first strategy showcases a sub-pilot scale hybrid ultrasonic-convective dryer for agrifood products. This technology, powered by electricity (process electrification), integrates non-thermal ultrasonic dehydration with convective heating and is presented as a sustainable and energy-efficient solution that enhances eco-friendly practices. The second strategy involves introducing and implementing a novel, multiobjective, mixed integer dynamic optimization technique to determine the optimal time-dependent process parameter values for the drying operation. This optimization technique yields operating conditions that are piecewise constant in time aiming to maximize the energy efficiency of the hybrid ultrasonic-convective dryer while ensuring strict adherence to product quality constraints. By adopting the hybrid ultrasonic-convective dryer, a notable 35% improvement in energy efficiency was achieved compared to conventional hot-air drying systems for drying apple slices. The proposed optimization framework further enhanced energy efficiency by nearly 14% over the most efficient process on the identical testbed, under static operating conditions. The reported enhancements have been experimentally validated. Regarding drying time (thereby improving production yield), the developed hybrid ultrasonic-convective dryer demonstrates as much as a 41% reduction in total processing time, which is further optimized by an additional 10% using our proposed optimization framework. The research outcomes have profound implications for the design and operation of drying systems, encompassing crucial aspects such as process electrification, cost-effectiveness, energy savings, time efficiency, product yield, product quality, and process automation.

Dynamic optimization↗

DOE OSTI2021

Exploratory analysis and performance prediction of big data transfer in High-performance Networks

Big data transfer in large-scale scientific and business applications is increasingly carried out over connections with guaranteed bandwidth provisioned in High-performance Networks (HPNs) via advance bandwidth reservation. Provisioning agents need to carefully schedule data transfer requests, compute network paths, and allocate appropriate bandwidths. Such reserved bandwidths, if not fully utilized, could be simply wasted due to the exclusive access during the approved time window, and cause extra overhead and complexity for resource management. This calls for accurate performance prediction to reserve bandwidths that match actual needs and avoid over-provisioning. We employ machine learning algorithms to predict big data transfer performance based on extensive performance measurements collected in the past several years from data transfer tests using different protocols and toolkits between various end sites on several real-life physical or emulated testbeds. We first analyze the performance patterns in response to a comprehensive list of parameters in end-host systems, network connections, and data transfer applications, which motivate the use of machine learning and also help us identify the effects of latent factors. We then propose threshold- and clustering-based methods to eliminate negative effects of latent factors in data preprocessing and build a robust performance predictor based on customized domain-oriented loss functions. The performance of the proposed methods is verified by extensive experiments using SVR and RFR as well as theoretical analysis of the general performance bound.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian model updating with finite element vs surrogate models: Application to a miter gate structural system

Bayesian finite element (FE) model updating using direct model evaluations of large-scale high-fidelity FE models is extremely computationally expensive. Surrogate models can be used as fast emulators of FE models to accelerate the model calibration process. The physics/mechanics-based FE models are still the underpinning behind the surrogate models. Here, this paper evaluates the loss in accuracy and the gain in computational time while performing Bayesian model updating by using surrogate model evaluations compared to using direct FE model evaluations. This evaluation is crucial before entirely relying on surrogate models in model updating for structural health monitoring (SHM) and damage prognosis (DP) purposes. This paper also demonstrates Bayesian updating and surrogate model construction of large-scale high-fidelity FE models of infrastructure systems. In this regard, the miter gate structural system is considered as the testbed structure. Three predominant damage modes (loss of contact between gate and wall, loss of thickness due to corrosion, and loss of tension in the diagonal rods) are considered for model updating purposes. Bayesian model updating is performed using direct FE evaluations by leveraging parallel computing. Two types of surrogates, namely polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) and Gaussian process regression (GPR), are developed for the miter gate. Model updating is performed again using the trained surrogate models, and the updating results are compared with their counterparts obtained using the direct FE evaluation results. The posterior distribution of the FE model parameters obtained using the trained surrogates are sufficiently accurate with respect to the posterior obtained utilizing the direct FE evaluations. In addition, an approximate 4-fold decrease in the computational time was observed when using surrogate model evaluations instead of direct FE evaluations for model updating.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

DART-PFLOTRAN: An ensemble-based data assimilation system for estimating subsurface flow and transport model parameters

Ensemble-based Data Assimilation (EDA), based on the Monte Carlo approach, has been effectively applied to estimate model parameters through inverse modeling in subsurface flow and transport problems. However, implementation of EDA approach involves a complicated workflow that include setting up and executing ensemble forward model simulations, processing observations and model simulation results for parameter updates, and repeat for sequential or iterative EDA. To facilitate the management of such workflow and lower the barriers for adopting EDA-based parameter estimation in subsurface science, we develop a generic software frame-work linking the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) with a massively parallel subsurface FLOw and TRANsport code PFLOTRAN. The new DART-PFLOTRAN leverages both the core data assimilation engines in DART and the computational power afforded by PFLOTRAN. In addition to the standard smoother and filtering options, DART-PFLOTRAN enables an iterative EDA workflow based on the Ensemble Smoother for Multiple Data Assimilation method (ES-MDA) to improve estimation accuracy for nonlinear forward problems. Here, we verify the implementation of ES-MDA in DART-PFLOTRAN using two synthetic cases designed to estimate static permeability and dynamic exchange fluxes across the riverbed, respectively, from continuous temperature measurements made across a depth profile. One-dimensional hydro-thermal simulations are performed in both cases to relate temperature responses with the parameters of interest. In the case of estimating dynamic parameters, we demonstrate the flexibility of DART-PFLOTRAN in automating sequential ES-MDA workflow, which will significantly reduce the time researchers spend on managing complex workflows in similar applications. Both studies yield accurate estimations of the parameters compared to their synthetic truth, while ES-MDA leads to more accurate estimation when a high level of nonlinearity exist between observed responses and unknown parameters. With a code base in Python and Fortran, DART-PFLOTRAN paves the way for applications in large-scale subsurface inverse modeling by automating the complex workflow of sequential ES-MDA that can be executed on various computing platforms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗