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A Comparative Assessment of Economic Model Predictive Control Strategies for Fuel Economy Optimization of Heavy-Duty Trucks

This paper provides a comparative assessment of three control strategies that fuse a global, offline dynamic programming (DP) optimization with online model predictive control (MPC) in an effort to minimize fuel consumption for a heavy-duty truck. The online MPC optimization, which is local in nature, makes refinements to a coarsely (but globally, subject to grid resolution) optimized target velocity profile from the DP optimization. Three candidate economic MPC formulations are evaluated: a time-based formulation that directly penalizes predicted fuel consumption, a simplified time-based formulation that penalizes braking effort in place of fuel consumption, and a distance-based convex formulation that maintains a tradeoff between energy expenditure and tracking of the coarsely optimized velocity based on DP. The performance of each approach is presented for three representative route profiles, using a medium-fidelity proprietary Volvo model of the heavy-duty truck’s longitudinal dynamics. Results demonstrate 4-7% fuel economy improvement across all three formulations, when compared to a baseline strategy. Furthermore, we present a detailed analysis of energy usage by “type” (aerodynamic losses, braking losses, and comparison of brake-specific fuel consumption), under each candidate control approach.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

High spatial resolution studies of galaxies in the far IR: Observations with the KAO, and the promise of SOFIA

NASA, in collaboration with the West German Science Ministry (BMFT), plans a larger airborne telescope as a successor to the Kuipper Airborne Observatory (KAO) that will achieve these goals. The Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) is entering the final stages of Phase B review with targeted new start early in the next decade. SOFIA is a 2.7 m diameter telescope that is carried in a Boeing 747SP. In addition to having 3 times the spatial resolution of the KAO, and 10 times the light gathering power, it will incorporate improvements over the KAO in lower optical emissivity and better telescope tracking stability. The thin primary mirror will equilibrate quickly to ambient temperature at an altitude which, accompanied by airflow improvements across the telescope cavity, will result in better image quality. The sensitivity of SOFIA will allow us to see a large number of typical bright galactic HII regions in local group galaxies. The spatial resolution of 8 seconds (full width half maximum Airy disk) at 100 microns will allow these regions to be measured independently, if they are distributed similarly to those in our own galaxy. At this spatial resolution, the disks of normal galaxies will be easily resolved out to distances of several hundred Mpc. This portion of space includes many of the superluminous galaxies discovered by the Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS), and this spatial scale is relevant for studies of the morphology of regions of interaction among the majority of these galaxies that are members of colliding pairs.

Lester, Dan F.↗

Dosimetric results from the Mir orbital station

The Mir Orbital Station provided a unique platform on which to carry out a variety of space radiation dosimetry measurements. A number of experiments were conducted using a combination of passive detectors on the interior of the Mir during 1996-97. Thermoluminescent detectors were used to measure absorbed dose. CR-39 plastic nuclear track detectors were used to measure the LET spectra > or =5 keV.microm(-1). Results from TLDs and CR-39 PNTDs were combined to determine total dose and dose equivalent. Mean dose rate was found to decrease while mean dose equivalent rate and average quality factor increased with increasing shielding. Secondary particles from proton-induced target fragmentation interactions, not primary HZE particles, were found to be the largest contributor to the LET spectrum above 100 keV.microm(-1). During the 1997 measurements, mean quality factor was found to vary from 1.7 to 2.1 as a function of location within the Mir.

long duration↗

Observations of the Ultra-compact X-Ray Binary 4U 1543-624 in Outburst with NICER, INTEGRAL, Swift, and ATCA

We report on X-ray and radio observations of the ultra-compact X-ray binary 4U 1543−624 taken in August 2017 during an enhanced accretion episode. We obtained Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) monitoring of the source over a ∼10 day period during which target-of-opportunity observations were also conducted with Swift, INTErnational Gamma-Ray Astrophysics Laboratory (INTEGRAL), and the Australia Telescope Compact Array. Emission lines were measured in the NICER X-ray spectrum at ∼0.64 keV and ∼6.4 keV that correspond to O and Fe, respectively. By modeling these line components, we are able to track changes in the accretion disk throughout this period. The innermost accretion flow appears to move inwards from hundreds of gravitational radii (R(g) =GM/sq.c) at the beginning of the outburst to <8.7 R(g) at peak intensity. We do not detect the source in radio, but are able to place a 3σ upper limit on the flux density at 27 μJy beam^−1. Comparing the radio and X-ray luminosities, we find that the source lies significantly away from the range typical of black holes in the L(r)–L(x) plane, suggesting a neutron star primary. This adds to the evidence that neutron stars (NSs) do not follow a single track in the L(r)–L(x) plane, limiting its use in distinguishing between different classes of NSs based on radio and X-ray observations alone.

Renee M. Ludlam↗

Autonomous Optical-only Navigation for Deep Space Missions

Navigation of spacecraft for interplanetary missions is typically performed on the ground using a two-way radio link to obtain the necessary tracking data. Due to the limited number of antenna capable of tracking these spacecraft, it would be advantageous to have a navigation capability that is entirely self-contained onboard a spacecraft. A camera mounted on a spacecraft is theoretically capable of enabling self-navigating spacecraft, and has been demonstrated in limited circumstances in past missions. Fundamentally, the technique involves using various natural or artificial targets as observational beacons to determine the observers position in space. In this paper, the technique of optical-only navigation is described, including discussions of what types of observations are used, and results of analysis showing the accuracies achievable for various mission types across the Solar System is discussed.

Bhaskaran, Shyam↗

Numerical evaluation of the bispectrum in multiple field inflation—the transport approach with code

We present a complete framework for numerical calculation of the power spectrum and bispectrum in canonical inflation with an arbitrary number of light or heavy fields. Our method includes all relevant effects at tree-level in the loop expansion, including (i) interference between growing and decaying modes near horizon exit; (ii) correlation and coupling between species near horizon exit and on superhorizon scales; (iii) contributions from mass terms; and (iv) all contributions from coupling to gravity. We track the evolution of each correlation function from the vacuum state through horizon exit and the superhorizon regime, with no need to match quantum and classical parts of the calculation; when integrated, our approach corresponds exactly with the tree-level Schwinger or 'in-in' formulation of quantum field theory. In this paper we give the equations necessary to evolve all two- and three-point correlation functions together with suitable initial conditions. The final formalism is suitable to compute the amplitude, shape, and scale dependence of the bispectrum in models with | f {sub NL}| of order unity or less, which are a target for future galaxy surveys such as Euclid, DESI and LSST. As an illustration we apply our framework to a number of examples, obtaining quantitatively accurate predictions for their bispectra for the first time. Two accompanying reports describe publicly-available software packages that implement the method.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Small step tracking - Implications for the oculomotor 'dead zone'

Recently Timberlake, Wyman, Skavenski, and Steinman (1972) concluded in a study of the oculomotor error signal in the fovea that 'the oculomotor dead zone is surely smaller than 10 min and may even be less than 5 min (smaller than the 0.25 to 0.5 deg dead zone reported by Rashbass (1961) with similar stimulus conditions).' The Timberlake et al. speculation is confirmed by demonstrating that the fixating eye consistently and accurately corrects target displacements as small as 3.4 min. The contact lens optical lever technique was used to study the manner in which the oculomotor system responds to small step displacements of the fixation target. Subjects did, without prior practice, use saccades to correct step displacements of the fixation target just as they correct small position errors during maintained fixation.

Wyman, D.↗

Quasi-Elastic Neutrino Interactions in the SAND Detector of DUNE

The System for on-Axis Neutrino Detection (SAND) is one of the three components of the DUNE Near Detector Complex. Its main goals are monitoring of the beam, precision measurements of neutrino cross-sections and short-baseline neutrino physics. The SAND detector is composed of a 0.6 T superconducting magnet, an electromagnetic calorimeter, a liquid argon active target (GRAIN) and a modular low-density target system. The GRAIN subdetector has been designed to allow the reconstruction of neutrino interactions in Argon using only the scintillation light, by implementing an innovative imaging system. In this poster, the performances of SAND are presented focusing on its capability to reconstruct νμ+Ar→μ−+p events using the information provided by the calorimeter, the tracking system and GRAIN.

Ingratta, Gianfranco↗

A Re-Evaluation of African Swine Fever Genotypes Based on p72 Sequences Reveals the Existence of Only Six Distinct p72 Groups

The African swine fever virus (ASFV) is currently causing a world-wide pandemic of a highly lethal disease in domestic swine and wild boar. Currently, recombinant ASF live-attenuated vaccines based on a genotype II virus strain are commercially available in Vietnam. With 25 reported ASFV genotypes in the literature, it is important to understand the molecular basis and usefulness of ASFV genotyping, as well as the true significance of genotypes in the epidemiology, transmission, evolution, control, and prevention of ASFV. Historically, genotyping of ASFV was used for the epidemiological tracking of the disease and was based on the analysis of small fragments that represent less than 1% of the viral genome. The predominant method for genotyping ASFV relies on the sequencing of a fragment within the gene encoding the structural p72 protein. Genotype assignment has been accomplished through automated phylogenetic trees or by comparing the target sequence to the most closely related genotyped p72 gene. To evaluate its appropriateness for the classification of genotypes by p72, we reanalyzed all available genomic data for ASFV. We conclude that the majority of p72-based genotypes, when initially created, were neither identified under any specific methodological criteria nor correctly compared with the already existing ASFV genotypes. Based on our analysis of the p72 protein sequences, we propose that the current twenty-five genotypes, created exclusively based on the p72 sequence, should be reduced to only six genotypes. To help differentiate between the new and old genotype classification systems, we propose that Arabic numerals (1, 2, 8, 9, 15, and 23) be used instead of the previously used Roman numerals. Furthermore, we discuss the usefulness of genotyping ASFV isolates based only on the p72 gene sequence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Navigation Challenges in the MAVEN Science Phase

The MAVEN spacecraft will explore Mars' upper atmosphere. The primary science phase will last one (Earth) year, during which the spacecraft will be in an elliptical 4.5 hour orbit at an inclination of 75 degrees. The 75 degree inclination results in the orbit periapsis oscillating between +/-75 degrees latitude, thus naturally covering most Mars latitudes during the primary mission. The orbit will be controlled via maneuvers so that the maximum orbit density remains in a density corridor. This results in the MAVEN science phase being in a light aerobraking type orbit of around 160 km for an extended period. In addition, the mission has significantly less tracking data than aerobraking phases of other missions, and even less than other NASA Mars orbiter primary phases. This results in significant challenges for the Navigation Team. They can be summarized as a difficulty in determining the current density profile, which maps into degraded trajectory predictions and less accurate control over the spacecraft location in the targeted density corridor via maneuvers. This paper describes these challenges and the Navigation Team's plans to meet them.

MAVEN↗

In-Situ Navigation and Timing Services for the Human Mars Landing Site Part 1: System Concept

In [1] and [2], we introduce a new geometric trilateration method that simultaneously performs absolute positioning and relative positioning. The relative position is derived from a “differencing” function of two raw-range measurements between a known reference point and of the target from a navigation satellite, thereby eliminating most of the common errors like atmospheric delays, ephemeris errors, and instrument delays in real-time. In the Mars environment this “error-cancellation” function greatly reduces the need to perform extensive orbit determination (OD) of the navigation satellites like the Earth’s GPS, and only requires occasional tracks from the Earth’s large-aperture deep space antennas to perform OD’s. Leveraging on this scheme, we propose a low-cost, low-maintenance regional navigation satellite system architecture that provides in-situ navigation and timing services for robotic and human missions in the vicinity of a Mars landing site. This architecture is built upon the proposed Mars relay network infrastructure, and a number of notional Mars orbiting and surface missions in the human exploration era of Mars. We assume two areostationary Mars relay orbiters that have continuous line-of-sight visibility with the Mars landing site, a Deep Space Habitat (DSH) in an inclined 48-hour circular orbit, and a surface communication lander that could serve as the reference point. These orbiting and surface infrastructure elements broadcast GPS-like ranging signals and other ephemeris information to the mission users. With one or more additional orbiters in areosynchronous orbits that trace around a figure-8 path, a regional navigation satellite system can be realized that provides in-situ course absolute localization and precision relative localization and timing services to the users in the vicinity of a Mars landing site. This paper describes the system concept of the proposed Mars regional navigation satellite system.

Lee, Charles↗

In-Situ Navigation and Timing Services for a Human Mars Landing Site Part 2: System Design and Simulations

In a previous paper, we described the system concept of a proposed Mars Regional Navigation Satellite System (MRNSS) that is built upon a number of notional Mars orbiting and surface missions in the human exploration era of Mars. We assume two areostationary Mars relay orbiters that have continuous line-of-sight visibility with the Mars landing site, a Deep Space Habitat (DSH) in an inclined 48-hour circular orbit, and a surface communication lander that could serve as the reference point. These orbiting and surface infrastructure elements broadcast GPS-like ranging signals and other ephemeris information to the mission users. With one or more additional orbiters in areosynchronous orbits that trace around a figure-8 path, a regional navigation satellite system can be realized that provides in-situ course absolute localization and precision relative localization and timing services to the users in the vicinity of a Mars landing site. We also introduced a new geometric trilateration method that simultaneously performs absolute positioning and relative positioning. The relative position is derived from a “differencing” function of two raw-range measurements between a known reference point and of the target from a navigation satellite, thereby eliminating most of the common errors like atmospheric delays, ephemeris errors, and instrument delays in real-time. In the Mars environment, this “error-cancellation” function greatly reduces the need to perform extensive orbit determination (OD) of the navigation satellites like the Earth’s GPS, and only requires occasional tracks from the Earth’s large-aperture deep space antennas to perform OD’s. In this paper, we provide detailed simulations on both the absolute positioning scheme and the relative positioning scheme, and show that the relative positioning scheme provides 200 – 400 times improvement in localization accuracy. On the ground side, we discuss new approaches that simultaneously perform 2-way Doppler/ranging, and re-introduce the method of Same Beam Interferometry (SBI) for the Mars navigation orbiters. This helps to further reduce the tracking burden of the ground antennas required to support the OD of the Mars orbiters, making the concept of MRNSS more realizable.

Lightsey, Glenn↗

Integrated Ultra-Wideband Tracking and Carbon Dioxide Sensing System Design for International Space Station Applications

A three-dimensional (3D) Ultra-Wideband (UWB) Time-of-Arrival (TOA) tracking system has been studied at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) to provide the tracking capability inside the International Space Station (ISS) modules for various applications. One of applications is to locate and report the location where crew experienced possible high level of carbon-dioxide (CO2) and felt upset. Recent findings indicate that frequent, short-term crew exposure to elevated CO2 levels combined with other physiological impacts of microgravity may lead to a number of detrimental effects, including loss of vision. To evaluate the risks associated with transient elevated CO2 levels and design effective countermeasures, doctors must have access to frequent CO2 measurements in the immediate vicinity of individual crew members along with simultaneous measurements of their location in the space environment. To achieve this goal, a small, low-power, wearable system that integrates an accurate CO2 sensor with an ultra-wideband (UWB) radio capable of real-time location estimation and data communication is proposed. This system would be worn by crew members or mounted on a free-flyer and would automatically gather and transmit sampled sensor data tagged with real-time, high-resolution location information. Under the current proposed effort, a breadboard prototype of such a system has been developed. Although the initial effort is targeted to CO2 monitoring, the concept is applicable to other types of sensors. For the initial effort, a micro-controller is leveraged to integrate a low-power CO2 sensor with a commercially available UWB radio system with ranging capability. In order to accurately locate those places in a multipath intensive environment like ISS modules, it requires a robust real-time location system (RTLS) which can provide the required accuracy and update rate. A 3D UWB TOA tracking system with two-way ranging has been proposed and studied. The designed system will be tested in the Wireless Habitat Testbed which simulates the ISS module environment. This report describes the research and development effort for this prototype integrated UWB tracking and CO2 sensing system. The remainder of the report is organized as follows. In Section II, the TOA tracking methodology is introduced and the 3D tracking algorithm is derived. The simulation results are discussed in Section III. In Section VI, prototype system design and field tests are discussed. Some concluding remarks and future works are presented in Section V.

Ni, Jianjun (David)↗

The Wallops Flight Facility Rapid Response Range Operations Initiative

While the dominant focus on short response missions has appropriately centered on the launch vehicle and spacecraft, often overlooked or afterthought phases of these missions have been launch site operations and the activities of launch range organizations. Throughout the history of organized spaceflight, launch ranges have been the bane of flight programs as the source of expense, schedule delays, and seemingly endless requirements. Launch Ranges provide three basic functions: (1) provide an appropriate geographical location to meet orbital other mission trajectory requirements, (2) provide project services such as processing facilities, launch complexes, tracking and data services, and expendable products, and (3) assure safety and property protection to participating personnel and third-parties. The challenge with which launch site authorities continuously struggle, is the inherent conflict arising from projects whose singular concern is execution of their mission, and the range s need to support numerous simultaneous customers. So, while tasks carried out by a launch range committed to a single mission pale in comparison to efforts of a launch vehicle or spacecraft provider and could normally be carried out in a matter of weeks, major launch sites have dozens of active projects separate sponsoring organizations. Accommodating the numerous tasks associated with each mission, when hardware failures, weather, maintenance requirements, and other factors constantly conspire against the range resource schedulers, make the launch range as significant an impediment to responsive missions as launch vehicles and their cargo. The obvious solution to the launch site challenge was implemented years ago when the Department of Defense simply established dedicated infrastructure and personnel to dedicated missions, namely an Inter Continental Ballistic Missile. This however proves to be prohibitively expensive for all but the most urgent of applications. So the challenge becomes how can a launch site provide acceptably responsive mission services to a particular customer without dedicating extensive resources and while continuing to serve other projects? NASA's Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) is pursuing solutions to exactly this challenge. NASA, in partnership with the Virginia Commercial Space Flight Authority, has initiated the Rapid Response Range Operations Initiative (R3Ops). R3Ops is a multi-phased effort to incrementally establish and demonstrate increasingly responsive launch operations, with an ultimate goal of providing ELV-class services in a maximum of 7-10 days from initial notification routinely, and shorter schedules possible with committed resources. This target will be pursued within the reality of simultaneous concurrent programs, and ideally, largely independent of specialized flight system configurations. WFF has recently completed Phase 1 of R3Ops, an in-depth collection (through extensive expert interviews) and software modeling of individual steps by various range disciplines. This modeling is now being used to identify existing inefficiencies in current procedures, to identify bottlenecks, and show interdependencies. Existing practices are being tracked to provide a baseline to benchmark against as new procedures are implemented. This paper will describe in detail the philosophies behind WFF's R3Ops, the data collected and modeled in Phase 1, and strategies for meeting responsive launch requirements in a multi-user range environment planned for subsequent phases of this initiative.

Underwood, Bruce E.↗

Harmonising the land-use flux estimates of global models and national inventories for 2000–2020

As the focus of climate policy shifts from pledges to implementation, there is a growing need to track progress on climate change mitigation at the country level, particularly for the land-use sector. Despite new tools and models providing unprecedented monitoring opportunities, striking differences remain in estimations of anthropogenic land-use CO 2 fluxes between, on the one hand, the national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) used to assess compliance with national climate targets under the Paris Agreement and, on the other hand, the Global Carbon Budget and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, both based on global bookkeeping models (BMs). Recent studies have shown that these differences are mainly due to inconsistent definitions of anthropogenic CO 2 fluxes in managed forests. Countries assume larger areas of forest to be managed than BMs do, due to a broader definition of managed land in NGHGIs. Additionally, the fraction of the land sink caused by indirect effects of human-induced environmental change (e.g. fertilisation effect on vegetation growth due to increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration) on managed lands is treated as non-anthropogenic by BMs but as anthropogenic in most NGHGIs. We implement an approach that adds the CO 2 sink caused by environmental change in countries' managed forests (estimated by 16 dynamic global vegetation models, DGVMs) to the land-use fluxes from three BMs. This sum is conceptually more comparable to NGHGIs and is thus expected to be quantitatively more similar. Our analysis uses updated and more comprehensive data from NGHGIs than previous studies and provides model results at a greater level of disaggregation in terms of regions, countries and land categories (i.e. forest land, deforestation, organic soils, other land uses). Our results confirm a large difference (6.7 GtCO 2 yr —1 ) in global land-use CO 2 fluxes between the ensemble mean of the BMs, which estimate a source of 4.8 GtCO 2 yr —1 for the period 2000–2020, and NGHGIs, which estimate a sink of —1.9 GtCO 2 yr —1 in the same period. Most of the gap is found on forest land (3.5 GtCO 2 yr —1 ), with differences also for deforestation (2.4 GtCO 2 yr —1 ), for fluxes from other land uses (1.0 GtCO 2 yr —1 ) and to a lesser extent for fluxes from organic soils (0.2 GtCO 2 yr —1 ). By adding the DGVM ensemble mean sink arising from environmental change in managed forests (—6.4 GtCO 2 yr —1 ) to BM estimates, the gap between BMs and NGHGIs becomes substantially smaller both globally (residual gap: 0.3 GtCO 2 yr —1 ) and in most regions and countries. However, some discrepancies remain and deserve further investigation. For example, the BMs generally provide higher emissions from deforestation than NGHGIs and, when adjusted with the sink in managed forests estimated by DGVMs, yield a sink that is often greater than NGHGIs. In summary, this study provides a blueprint for harmonising the estimations of anthropogenic land-use fluxes, allowing for detailed comparisons between global models and national inventories at global, regional and country levels. This is crucial to increase confidence in land-use emissions estimates, support investments in land-based mitigation strategies and assess the countries' collective progress under the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Introduction to Flight Software Development: FSW Today, FSW 2010

Experience and knowledge gained from ongoing maintenance of Space Shuttle Flight Software and new development projects including Cockpit Avionics Upgrade are applied to projected needs of the National Space Exploration Vision through Spiral 2. Lessons learned from these current activities are applied to create a sustainable, reliable model for development of critical software to support Project Constellation. This presentation introduces the technologies, methodologies, and infrastructure needed to produce and sustain high quality software. It will propose what is needed to support a Vision for Space Exploration that places demands on the innovation and productivity needed to support future space exploration. The technologies in use today within FSW development include tools that provide requirements tracking, integrated change management, modeling and simulation software. Specific challenges that have been met include the introduction and integration of Commercial Off the Shelf (COTS) Real Time Operating System for critical functions. Though technology prediction has proved to be imprecise, Project Constellation requirements will need continued integration of new technology with evolving methodologies and changing project infrastructure. Targets for continued technology investment are integrated health monitoring and management, self healing software, standard payload interfaces, autonomous operation, and improvements in training. Emulation of the target hardware will also allow significant streamlining of development and testing. The methodologies in use today for FSW development are object oriented UML design, iterative development using independent components, as well as rapid prototyping . In addition, Lean Six Sigma and CMMI play a critical role in the quality and efficiency of the workforce processes. Over the next six years, we expect these methodologies to merge with other improvements into a consolidated office culture with all processes being guided by automated office assistants. The infrastructure in use today includes strict software development and configuration management procedures, including strong control of resource management and critical skills coverage. This will evolve to a fully integrated staff organization with efficient and effective communication throughout all levels guided by a Mission-Systems Architecture framework with focus on risk management and attention toward inevitable product obsolescence. This infrastructure of computing equipment, software and processes will itself be subject to technological change and need for management of change and improvement,

Gouvela, John↗

Harmonising the Land-Use Flux Estimates of Global Models and National Inventories for 2000–2020

As the focus of climate policy shifts from pledges to implementation, there is a growing need to track progress on climate change mitigation at the country level, particularly for the land-use sector. Despite new tools and models providing unprecedented monitoring opportunities, striking differences remain in estimations of anthropogenic land-use CO 2 fluxes between, on the one hand, the national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) used to assess compliance with national climate targets under the Paris Agreement and, on the other hand, the Global Carbon Budget and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, both based on global bookkeeping models (BMs). Recent studies have shown that these differences are mainly due to inconsistent definitions of anthropogenic CO 2 fluxes in managed forests. Countries assume larger areas of forest to be managed than BMs do, due to a broader definition of managed land in NGHGIs. Additionally, the fraction of the land sink caused by indirect effects of human-induced environmental change (e.g. fertilisation effect on vegetation growth due to increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration) on managed lands is treated as non-anthropogenic by BMs but as anthropogenic in most NGHGIs. We implement an approach that adds the CO 2 sink caused by environmental change in countries' managed forests (estimated by 16 dynamic global vegetation models, DGVMs) to the land-use fluxes from three BMs. This sum is conceptually more comparable to NGHGIs and is thus expected to be quantitatively more similar. Our analysis uses updated and more comprehensive data from NGHGIs than previous studies and provides model results at a greater level of disaggregation in terms of regions, countries and land categories (i.e. forest land, deforestation, organic soils, other land uses). Our results confirm a large difference (6.7 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) in global land-use CO 2 fluxes between the ensemble mean of the BMs, which estimate a source of 4.8 GtCO 2 yr −1 for the period 2000–2020, and NGHGIs, which estimate a sink of −1.9 GtCO 2 yr −1 in the same period. Most of the gap is found on forest land (3.5 GtCO 2 yr −1 ), with differences also for deforestation (2.4 GtCO 2 yr −1 ), for fluxes from other land uses (1.0 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) and to a lesser extent for fluxes from organic soils (0.2 GtCO2 yr−1). By adding the DGVM ensemble mean sink arising from environmental change in managed forests (−6.4 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) to BM estimates, the gap between BMs and NGHGIs becomes substantially smaller both globally (residual gap: 0.3 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) and in most regions and countries. However, some discrepancies remain and deserve further investigation. For example, the BMs generally provide higher emissions from deforestation than NGHGIs and, when adjusted with the sink in managed forests estimated by DGVMs, yield a sink that is often greater than NGHGIs. In summary, this study provides a blueprint for harmonising the estimations of anthropogenic land-use fluxes, allowing for detailed comparisons between global models and national inventories at global, regional and country levels. This is crucial to increase confidence in land-use emissions estimates, support investments in land-based mitigation strategies and assess the countries' collective progress under the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement.

Giacomo Grassi↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Algal Biofuels Techno-Economic Analysis 1.3.5.200

The objective of NREL's Algal Biofuel Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) project is to provide process modeling and analysis to support Algae Program activities, utilizing TEA models to relate key process parameters with overall economics for cultivation, processing, and conversion of algal biomass to fuels and coproducts. By quantifying economic implications of key process metrics, TEA models highlight the technical requirements to achieve future program cost goals as well as enabling a means to track progress towards these goals. This project provides high impact and relevance though generation of critical cost data tied to funded research, with our analyses subsequently exercised by BETO to guide program plans, FOA priorities, and other directives. This includes costs for both algal biomass production and downstream conversion, most notably to support BETO's fuel cost targets below $2.5/GGE by 2030. To mitigate a key risk/challenge in constraining our work to academic analyses rooted only in future projections, our work also seeks to provide near-term value to today's algae industry through frequent industry engagement, while maintaining close ties with other BETO collaborators. This project has made numerous accomplishments since the 2019 peer review, including a continued focus on opportunities for value-added products, with related analyses for new pathway opportunities to achieve BETO cost goals and notable State-of-Technology (SOT) improvements over prior cost benchmarks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗