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Solar Energetic Particle Studies with PAMELA

The origin of the high-energy solar energetic particles (SEPs) may conceivably be found in composition signatures that reflect the elemental abundances of the low corona and chromosphere vs. the high corona and solar wind. The presence of secondaries, such as neutrons and positrons, could indicate a low coronal origin of these particles. Velocity dispersion of different species and over a wide energy range can be used to determine energetic particle release times at the Sun. Together with multi-wavelength imaging, in- situ observations of a variety of species, and coverage over a wide energy range provide a critical tool in identifying the origin of SEPs, understanding the evolution of these events within the context of solar active regions, and constraining the acceleration mechanisms at play. The Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA)instrument, successfully launched in 2006 and expected to remain operational until at least the beginning of 2012, measures energetic particles in the same energy range as ground-based neutron monitors, and lower energies as well. It thus bridges the gap between low energy in-situ observations and ground-based Ground Level Enhancements (GLE) observations. It can measure the charge (up to Z=6) and atomic number of the detected particles, and it can identify and measure positrons and detect neutrons-an unprecedented array of data channels that we can bring to bear on the origin of high-energy SEPs. We present prelimiary results on the for the 2006 December 13 solar flare and GLE and the 2011 March 21 solar flare, both registering proton and helium enhancements in PAMELA. Together with multi- spacecraft contextual data and modeling, we discuss the PAMELA results in the context of the different acceleration mechanisms at play.

Bravar, U.↗

Chaos in the sunspot cycle - Analysis and prediction

The variability of solar activity over long time scales, given semiquantitatively by measurements of sunspot numbers, is examined as a nonlinear dynamical system. First, a discussion of the data set used and the techniques utilized to reduce the noise and capture the long-term dynamics inherent in the data is presented. Subsequently, an attractor is reconstructed from the data set using the method of time delays. The reconstructed attractor is then used to determine both the dimension of the underlying system and also the largest Lyapunov exponent, which together indicate that the sunspot cycle is indeed chaotic and also low dimensional. In addition, recent techniques of exploiting chaotic dynamics to provide accurate, short-term predictions are utilized in order to improve upon current forecasting methods and also to place theoretical limits on predictability extent. The results are compared to chaotic solar-dynamo models as a possible physically motivated source of this chaotic behavior.

Mundt, Michael D.↗

Estimating Total Open Heliospheric Magnetic Flux

Over the solar-activity cycle, there are extended periods where significant discrepancies occur between the spacecraft-observed total (unsigned) open magnetic flux and that determined from coronal models. In this article, the total open heliospheric magnetic flux is computed using two different methods and then compared with results obtained from insitu interplanetary magnetic-field observations. The first method uses two different types of photospheric magnetic-field maps as input to the Wang–Sheeley–Arge (WSA) model: i) traditional Carrington or diachronic maps, and ii) Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport model synchronic maps. The second method uses observationally derived helium and extreme-ultraviolet coronal-hole maps overlaid on the same magnetic-field maps in order to compute total open magnetic flux. The diachronic and synchronic maps are both constructed using magnetograms from the same source, namely the National Solar Observatory Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope and Vector Spectromagnetograph. The results of this work show that the total open flux obtained from observationally derived coronal holes agrees remarkably well with that derived from WSA, especially near solar minimum. This suggests that, on average, coronal models capture well the observed large-scale coronal-hole structure over most of the solar cycle. Both methods show considerable deviations from total open flux deduced from spacecraft data, especially near solar maximum, pointing to something other than poorly determined coronal-hole area specification as the source of these discrepancies.

Wallace, S.↗

Nanoflare activity in the solar chromosphere

We use ground-based images of high spatial and temporal resolution to search for evidence of nanoflare activity in the solar chromosphere. Through close examination of more than 1 × 10{sup 9} pixels in the immediate vicinity of an active region, we show that the distributions of observed intensity fluctuations have subtle asymmetries. A negative excess in the intensity fluctuations indicates that more pixels have fainter-than-average intensities compared with those that appear brighter than average. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we reveal how the negative excess can be explained by a series of impulsive events, coupled with exponential decays, that are fractionally below the current resolving limits of low-noise equipment on high-resolution ground-based observatories. Importantly, our Monte Carlo simulations provide clear evidence that the intensity asymmetries cannot be explained by photon-counting statistics alone. A comparison to the coronal work of Terzo et al. suggests that nanoflare activity in the chromosphere is more readily occurring, with an impulsive event occurring every ∼360 s in a 10,000 km{sup 2} area of the chromosphere, some 50 times more events than a comparably sized region of the corona. As a result, nanoflare activity in the chromosphere is likely to play an important role in providing heat energy to this layer of the solar atmosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Is a deep one-cell meridional circulation essential for the flux transport solar dynamo?

The solar activity cycle is successfully modeled by the flux transport dynamo, in which the meridional circulation of the Sun plays an important role. Most of the kinematic dynamo simulations assume a one-cell structure of the meridional circulation within the convection zone, with the equatorward return flow at its bottom. In view of the recent claims that the return flow occurs at a much shallower depth, we explore whether a meridional circulation with such a shallow return flow can still retain the attractive features of the flux transport dynamo (such as a proper butterfly diagram, the proper phase relation between the toroidal and poloidal fields). We consider additional cells of the meridional circulation below the shallow return flow—both the case of multiple cells radially stacked above one another and the case of more complicated cell patterns. As long as there is an equatorward flow in low latitudes at the bottom of the convection zone, we find that the solar behavior is approximately reproduced. However, if there is either no flow or a poleward flow at the bottom of the convection zone, then we cannot reproduce solar behavior. On making the turbulent diffusivity low, we still find periodic behavior, although the period of the cycle becomes unrealistically large. In addition, with a low diffusivity, we do not get the observed correlation between the polar field at the sunspot minimum and the strength of the next cycle, which is reproduced when diffusivity is high. On introducing radially downward pumping, we get a more reasonable period and more solar-like behavior even with low diffusivity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Neutron fluences and energy spectra in the Cosmos-2044 biosatellite orbit

Joint Soviet-American measurements of the neutron component of space radiation (SR) were carried out during the flight of the Soviet biosatellite Cosmos-2044. Neutron flux densities and differential energy spectra were measured inside and on the external surface of the spacecraft. Three energy intervals were employed: thermal (En < or = 0.2 eV), resonance (0.2 eV < En < 1.0 MeV) and fast (En > or = 1.0 MeV) neutrons. The first two groups were measured with U.S. 6LiF detectors, while fast neutrons were recorded both by U.S. fission foils and Soviet nuclear emulsions. Estimations were made of the contributions to absorbed and equivalent doses from each neutron energy interval and a correlation was presented between fast neutron fluxes, measured outside the satellite, and the phase of solar activity (SA). Average dose equivalent rates of 0.018 and 0.14 mrem d-1 were measured for thermal and resonance neutrons, respectively, outside the spacecraft. The corresponding values for fast neutrons were 3.3 (U.S.) and 1.8 (U.S.S.R.) mrem d-1. Inside the spacecraft, a value of 3.5 mrem d-1 was found.

NASA Discipline Number 00-00↗

Rotation and activity among solar-type stars of the Ursa Major Group

We examine rotation and chromospheric activity among G and K dwarfs recently shown to be members of the Ursa Major Group (UMaG). Rotation periods for UMaG stars are smaller than for stars of the same colors in the Hyades, and by an amount corresponding to the Skumanich relation. Most UMaG stars have about the same level of Ca II and K emission, implying that they also have nearly uniform intrinsic rotation rates. That means that the diversity of rotation rates and levels of activity seen among solar-type stars in the Alpha Persei and Pleiades clusters has largely converged by the age of UMaG (0.3 Gyr).

Soderblom, David R.↗

THE RECENT REJUVENATION OF THE SUN’S LARGE-SCALE MAGNETIC FIELD: A CLUE FOR UNDERSTANDING PAST AND FUTURE SUNSPOT CYCLES

The quiet nature of sunspot cycle 24 was disrupted during the second half of 2014 when the Sun’s large-scale field underwent a sudden rejuvenation: the solar mean field reached its highest value since 1991, the interplanetary field strength doubled, and galactic cosmic rays showed their strongest 27-day modulation since neutron-monitor observations began in 1957; in the outer corona, the large increase of field strength was reflected by unprecedentedly large numbers of coronal loops collapsing inward along the heliospheric current sheet. Here, we show that this rejuvenation was not caused by a significant increase in the level of solar activity as measured by the smoothed sunspot number and CME rate, but instead was caused by the systematic emergence of flux in active regions whose longitudinal distribution greatly increased the Sun’s dipole moment. A similar post-maximum increase in the dipole moment occurred during each of the previous three sunspot cycles, and marked the start of the declining phase of each cycle. We note that the north–south component of this peak dipole moment provides an early indicator of the amplitude of the next cycle, and conclude that the amplitude of cycle 25 may be comparable to that of cycle 24, and well above the amplitudes obtained during the Maunder Minimum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

THE FLARE-ONA OF EK DRACONIS

EK Draconis (HD 129333: G1.5 V) is a well-known young (50 Myr) solar analog. In 2012, Hubble Space Telescope returned to EK Dra to follow up a far-ultraviolet (FUV) SNAPshot visit by Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS) two years earlier. The brief SNAP pointing had found surprisingly redshifted, impulsively variable subcoronal “hot-line” emission of Si iv 1400 Å (T ∼ 8 × 10{sup 4} K). Serendipitously, the 2012 follow-on program witnessed one of the largest FUV flares ever recorded on a sunlike star, which again displayed strong redshifts (downflows) of 30–40 km s{sup −1}, even after compensating for small systematics in the COS velocity scales, uncovered through a cross-calibration by Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS). The (now reduced, but still substantial) ∼10 km s{sup −1} hot-line redshifts outside the flaring interval did not vary with rotational phase, so cannot be caused by “Doppler imaging” (bright surface patches near a receding limb). Density diagnostic O iv] 1400 Å multiplet line ratios of EK Dra suggest n{sub e} ∼ 10{sup 11} cm{sup −3}, an order of magnitude larger than in low-activity solar twin α Centauri A, but typical of densities inferred in large stellar soft X-ray events. The self-similar FUV hot-line profiles between the flare decay and the subsequent more quiet periods, and the unchanging but high densities, reinforce a long-standing idea that the coronae of hyperactive dwarfs are flaring all the time, in a scale-free way; a flare-ona if you will. In this picture, the subsonic hot-line downflows probably are a byproduct of the post-flare cooling process, something like “coronal rain” on the Sun. All in all, the new STIS/COS program documents a complex, energetic, dynamic outer atmosphere of the young sunlike star.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation and the High Speed Civil Transport

Atmospheric ionizing radiation is produced by extraterrestrial radiations incident on the Earth's atmosphere. These extraterrestrial radiations are of two sources: ever present galactic cosmic rays with origin outside the solar system and transient solar particle events that are at times very intense events associated with solar activity lasting several hours to a few days. Although the galactic radiation penetrating through the atmosphere to the ground is low in intensity, the intensity is more than two orders of magnitude greater at commercial aircraft altitudes. The radiation levels at the higher altitudes of the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) are an additional factor of two higher. Ionizing radiation produces chemically active radicals in biological tissues that alter the cell function or result in cell death. Protection standards against low levels of ionizing radiation are based on limitation of excess cancer mortality or limitation of developmental injury resulting in permanent damage to the offspring during pregnancy. The crews of commercial air transport operations are considered as radiation workers by the EPA, the FAA, and the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The annual exposures of aircrews depend on the latitudes and altitudes of operation and flight time. Flight hours have significantly increased since deregulation of the airline industry in the 1980's. The FAA estimates annual subsonic aircrew exposures to range from 0.2 to 9.1 mSv compared to 0.5 mSv exposure of the average nuclear power plant worker in the nuclear industry. The commercial aircrews of the HSCT may receive exposures above recently recommended allowable limits for even radiation workers if flying their allowable number of flight hours. An adequate protection philosophy for background exposures in HSCT commercial airtraffic cannot be developed at this time due to current uncertainty in environmental levels. In addition, if a large solar particle event occurs during flight at HSCT altitudes then passengers and crew may greatly exceed allowable limits unless means are available to reduce exposures.

Maiden, D. L.↗

A Dream of a Mission: Stellar Imager and Seismic Probe

The Stellar Imager and Seismic Probe (SISP) is a mission to understand the various effects of magnetic fields of stars, the dynamos that generate them, and the internal structure and dynamics of the stars in which they exist. The ultimate goal is to achieve the best-possible forecasting of solar activity on times scales ranging up to decades, and an understanding of the impact of stellar magnetic activity on astrobiology and life in the Universe. The road to that goal will revolutionize our understanding of stars and stellar systems, the building blocks of the Universe. SISP will zoom in on what today - with few exceptions - we only know as point sources, revealing processes never before seen, thus providing a tool to astrophysics as fundamental as the microscope is to the study of life on Earth. SISP is an ultraviolet aperture-synthesis imager with 8-10 telescopes with meter-class apertures, and a central hub with focal-plane instrumentation that allows spectrophotometry in passbands as narrow as a few Angstroms up to hundreds of Angstroms. SISP will image stars and binaries with one hundred to one thousand resolution elements on their surface, and sound their interiors through asteroseismology to image internal structure, differential rotation, and large-scale circulations; this will provide accurate knowledge of stellar structure and evolution and complex transport processes, and will impact numerous branches of (astro)physics ranging from the Big Bang to the future of the Universe. Fitting naturally within the NASA long-term time line, SISP complements defined missions, and with them will show us entire other solar systems, from the central star to their orbiting planets.

Carpenter, Kenneth G.↗

Investigating the Magnetic Imprints of Major Solar Eruptions with SDO /HMI High-cadence Vector Magnetograms

The solar active region photospheric magnetic field evolves rapidly during major eruptive events, suggesting appreciable feedback from the corona. Previous studies of these “magnetic imprints” are mostly based on line of sight only or lower-cadence vector observations; a temporally resolved depiction of the vector field evolution is hitherto lacking. Here, we introduce the high-cadence (90 s or 135 s) vector magnetogram data set from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, which is well suited for investigating the phenomenon. These observations allow quantitative characterization of the permanent, step-like changes that are most pronounced in the horizontal field component (B {sub h}). A highly structured pattern emerges from analysis of an archetypical event, SOL2011-02-15T01:56, where B {sub h} near the main polarity inversion line increases significantly during the earlier phase of the associated flare with a timescale of several minutes, while B {sub h} in the periphery decreases at later times with smaller magnitudes and a slightly longer timescale. The data set also allows effective identification of the “magnetic transient” artifact, where enhanced flare emission alters the Stokes profiles and the inferred magnetic field becomes unreliable. Our results provide insights on the momentum processes in solar eruptions. The data set may also be useful to the study of sunquakes and data-driven modeling of the corona.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Survey of Modeling Activities by NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office

NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) develops and maintains a number of modeling tools to analyze and simulate the orbital debris environment. One of the most important products produced by the NASA ODPO is the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM). This model can be used by satellite designers and operators to design missions for better protection against the debris environment. The ODPO is currently working on the next generation, designated ORDEM 4.0. ORDEM 4.0 will include many known features from previous models, such as the ability to input a spacecraft orbit and time and the ability to compute the flux as a function of debris size, impact speed, impact direction, and debris material densities, as well as uncertainty information on the flux. A new addition will be a parameterized debris shape model based on laboratory hypervelocity impact tests, including DebriSat. ORDEM is primarily based on dedicated debris measurements, such as by the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR), NASA’s Goldstone radar, and observations of geosynchronous orbits (GEO) using the Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (ES-MCAT). In addition to ORDEM, the ODPO also maintains other models, such as the LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model for studies of long-term evolution of Earth’s debris environment, with the ability to study various mitigation and remediation strategies. Another model, the Satellite Breakup Risk Assessment Model (SBRAM), is used to analyze how satellite breakups may affect critical space missions (such as the ISS) on short notice. In addition to these models, the ODPO maintains other secondary models used to model satellite explosions and collisions, analyze radar, optical, and in situ data, and to model such things as solar activity and orbit evolution. In this presentation, a survey of these models will be presented, showing how the different models are used together to create a comprehensive picture of Earth’s debris environment.

Mark Matney↗

Preconditioning of Interplanetary Space Due to Transient CME Disturbances

Interplanetary space is characteristically structured mainly by high-speed solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes and transient disturbances such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). While high-speed solar wind streams pose a continuous outflow, CMEs abruptly disrupt the rather steady structure, causing large deviations from the quiet solar wind conditions. For the first time, we give a quantification of the duration of disturbed conditions (preconditioning) for interplanetary space caused by CMEs. To this aim, we investigate the plasma speed component of the solar wind and the impact of in situ detected interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), compared to different background solar wind models (ESWF, WSA, persistence model) for the time range 2011–2015. We quantify in terms of standard error measures the deviations between modeled background solar wind speed and observed solar wind speed. Using the mean absolute error, we obtain an average deviation for quiet solar activity within a range of 75.1–83.1 km s{sup −1}. Compared to this baseline level, periods within the ICME interval showed an increase of 18%–32% above the expected background, and the period of two days after the ICME displayed an increase of 9%–24%. We obtain a total duration of enhanced deviations over about three and up to six days after the ICME start, which is much longer than the average duration of an ICME disturbance itself (∼1.3 days), concluding that interplanetary space needs ∼2–5 days to recover from the impact of ICMEs. The obtained results have strong implications for studying CME propagation behavior and also for space weather forecasting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Large cosmic ray transient decreases observed in the heliosphere at the Earth, Voyagers 1 and 2 and Pioneer 10 from 1987 to 1991

Using the greater than 70-MeV cosmic ray rate data from the Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP), Voyager, and Pioneer spacecraft, we have examined the role of large transient decreases in the overall cosmic ray decrease from 1987 to 1990. At least 12 separate transient decreases with magnitudes greater than 5% were observed at Voyager 2, which moved from a heliocentric radius of approximately 23 to 35 AU during the time period. Many, but not all, of these decreases were observed at IMP 8 near the Earth and at the Pioneer 10 between 42 and 54 AU near the ecliptic plane. However, only five of these decreases were observed at Voyager 1 at north heliographic latitude approximately 30 deg and radial distance between 32 and 46 AU. The period of decreasing cosmic ray intensity from 1987 to 1990 can be divided into two phases. During phase 1, between mid-1987 and early 1989, the average heliospheric current sheet tilt rapidly increased from approximately 8 deg to 65 deg as the solar activity was also increasing rapidly and the intensity at the Earth decreased by about 35%. Four large transient decreases were observed at the Earth during this time; however, transient decreases beyond the Earth were observed only near the ecliptic plane. In phase 2, from early 1989 to mid-1990 when the intensity at the Earth decreased by an additional approximately 60%, five large transient decreases were observed at all latitudes. During this time the current sheet tilt was always greater than 60 deg. Using a procedure to separate these large transient decreases from any possible slower long-term variations, we argue that these decreases appear to be responsible for much of the overall intensity decrease of 20 - 35% observed at all spacecraft near the equatorial plane in phase 1 as well as most of the larger intensity decrease of about 45 - 60% observed at all spacecraft during phase 2. The recovery of the cosmic ray intensity that started at the Earth in early 1990 moved outward in the heliosphere reaching the Voyager and Pioneer spacecraft about 6 months later. This is in contrast to what happened as the intensity began to recover was observed to begin almost simultaneously at all radii less than 25 AU. This difference suggests that during the current cycle, the mechanism responsible for the recovery must have propagated outward from the Sun. This could have been related to the reversal of the solar polar magnetic field which occurred in early 1990. The effects of large transients propagating outward in the heliosphere and becoming ineffective when they reach the heliospheric boundary could not have played a major role in the onset of the recovery in 1990, since in this case the recovery should have been observed first in the outer heliosphere.

Webber, W. R.↗

Quasi-Decadal Oscillations Generated by the QBO

Quasi-decadal oscillations (QDO) have been observed in the stratosphere and have been linked to the equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and to the 11-year solar activity cycle. With the use of a 2D version of our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) that incorporates Hines'Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP) for gravity waves (GW), we demonstrate that beat periods between 9 and I I years can be generated by the QBO as it interacts through GW filtering with the Annual Oscillation (AO) and Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO). Results are discussed from computations covering up to 50 years, and our analyses leads to the following conclusions. The QDO as a stand-alone signature is largely confined to the upper mesosphere. Its largest signature appears in the form of amplitude modulations of the QBO, AO and SAO, and these extend into the lower stratosphere. The downward control that characterizes the QBO apparently comes into play, and the longer time constants for diffusion and radiative loss at lower altitudes facilitate the QDO response. Although excited by the QBO, which is confined to low latitudes, the QDO is shown to extend to high latitudes. The effect is particularly large for the QBO with period around 33.5 month (near the upper limit of observations), which interacts with the SAO to produce a hemispherically symmetric QDO. Our analysis indicates that the QDO is transferred to high latitudes by the meridional circulation, which prominently exhibits this periodicity particularly in the amplitude modulation of the AO. The propensity for beat periods around 10 years may help to increase significantly the efficiency for generating solar cycle signatures in the atmosphere, and we discuss numerical experiments related to that.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

Plasma Heating in Solar Microflares: Statistics and Analysis

In this paper we present the results of an analysis of 481 weak solar flares, from A0.01 class flares to the B GOES class, that were observed during the period of extremely low solar activity from 2009 April to July. For all flares we measured the temperature of the plasma in the isothermal and two-temperature approximations and tried to fit its relationship with the X-ray class using exponential and power-law functions. We found that the whole temperature distribution in the range from A0.01 to X-class cannot be fit by one exponential function. The fitting for weak flares below A1.0 is significantly steeper than that for medium and large flares. The power-law approximation seems to be more reliable: the corresponding functions were found to be in good agreement with experimental data both for microflares and for normal flares. Our study predicts that evidence of plasma heating can be found in flares starting from the A0.0002 X-ray class. Weaker events presumably cannot heat the surrounding plasma. We also estimated emission measures for all flares studied and the thermal energy for 113 events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

OBSERVATIONS OF EUV WAVES IN {sup 3}He-RICH SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS

Small {sup 3}He-rich solar energetic particle (SEP) events with their anomalous abundances, markedly different from the solar system, provide evidence for a unique acceleration mechanism that operates routinely near solar active regions. Although the events are sometimes accompanied by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), it is believed that mass and isotopic fractionation is produced directly in the flare sites on the Sun. We report on a large-scale extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) coronal wave observed in association with {sup 3}He-rich SEP events. In the two examples discussed, the observed waves were triggered by minor flares and appeared concurrently with EUV jets and type III radio bursts, but without CMEs. The energy spectra from one event are consistent with so-called class-1 (characterized by power laws) {sup 3}He-rich SEP events, while the other with class-2 (characterized by rounded {sup 3}He and Fe spectra), suggesting different acceleration mechanisms in the two. The observation of EUV waves suggests that large-scale disturbances, in addition to more commonly associated jets, may be responsible for the production of {sup 3}He-rich SEP events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗