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At least 1,585 records · Page 88

Shape restricted additive hazards models: Monotone, unimodal, and U‐shape hazard functions

We consider estimation of the semiparametric additive hazards model with an unspecified baseline hazard function where the effect of a continuous covariate has a specific shape but otherwise unspecified. Such estimation is particularly useful for a unimodal hazard function, where the hazard is monotone increasing and monotone decreasing with an unknown mode. A popular approach of the proportional hazards model is limited in such setting due to the complicated structure of the partial likelihood. Our model defines a quadratic loss function, and its simple structure allows a global Hessian matrix that does not involve parameters. Thus, once the global Hessian matrix is computed, a standard quadratic programming method can be applicable by profiling all possible locations of the mode. However, the quadratic programming method may be inefficient to handle a large global Hessian matrix in the profiling algorithm due to a large dimensionality, where the dimension of the global Hessian matrix and number of hypothetical modes are the same order as the sample size. We propose the quadratic pool adjacent violators algorithm to reduce computational costs. The proposed algorithm is extended to the model with a time‐dependent covariate with monotone or U‐shape hazard function. In simulation studies, our proposed method improves computational speed compared to the quadratic programming method, with bias and mean square error reductions. We analyze data from a recent cardiovascular study.

Mathematical & Computational Biology↗

Bayesian Adaptive Polynomial Chaos Expansions

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) are widely used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, particularly in the applied mathematics community. However, PCE has received comparatively less attention in the statistics literature, and fully Bayesian formulations remain rare—especially with implementations in R. Motivated by the success of adaptive Bayesian machine learning models such as BART, BASS and BPPR, we develop a new fully Bayesian adaptive PCE method with an efficient and accessible R implementation: khaos. Our approach includes a novel proposal distribution that enables data-driven interaction selection and supports a modified g-prior tailored to PCE structure. Through simulation studies and real-world UQ applications, we demonstrate that the Bayesian adaptive PCE provides competitive performance for surrogate modeling, global sensitivity analysis and ordinal regression tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Effect of the Prior and the Experimental Design on the Inference of the Precision Matrix in Gaussian Chain Graph Models

Here, we investigate whether (and how) experimental design could aid in the estimation of the precision matrix in a Gaussian chain graph model, especially the interplay between the design, the effect of the experiment and prior knowledge about the effect. Estimation of the precision matrix is a fundamental task to infer biological graphical structures like microbial networks. We compare the marginal posterior precision of the precision matrix under four priors: flat, conjugate Normal-Wishart, Normal-MGIG and a general independent. Under the flat and conjugate priors, the Laplace-approximated posterior precision is not a function of the design matrix rendering useless any efforts to find an optimal experimental design to infer the precision matrix. In contrast, the Normal-MGIG and general independent priors do allow for the search of optimal experimental designs, yet there is a sharp upper bound on the information that can be extracted from a given experiment. We confirm our theoretical findings via a simulation study comparing (i) the KL divergence between prior and posterior and (ii) the Stein’s loss difference of MAPs between random and no experiment. Our findings provide practical advice for domain scientists conducting experiments to better infer the precision matrix as a representation of a biological network.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A phase-field model for hydride formation in polycrystalline metals: Application to δ-hydride in zirconium alloys

We report a phase-field model for simulating metal hydride formation involving large volume expansion in single- and polycrystals. As an example, we consider δ-hydride formation in α-zirconium (Zr), which involves both displacive crystallographic structural change and hydrogen diffusion process. Thermodynamic Gibbs energy functions are extracted from the available thermodynamic database based on the sublattice model for the interstitial solid solutions. Solute-grain boundary interactions and inhomogeneous elasticity of polycrystals are taken into consideration within the context of diffuse-interface description. The stress-free transformation strains of multiple variants for hcp -Zr (α) to fcc -hydride (δ) transformation are derived based on the well-established orientation relationship between the α and δ phases as well as the corresponding temperature-dependent lattice parameters. In particular, to account for the large volume expansion, we introduced the mixed interfacial coherency concept between those phases—basal planes are coherent and prismatic planes are semi-coherent in computing the strain energy contribution to the thermodynamics. We analyzed the morphological characteristics of hydrides involving multiple structural variants and their interactions with grain boundaries. Moreover, our simulation study allows for the exploration of the possible hydride re-orientation mechanisms when precipitating under applied tensile load, taking into account the variation in the interfacial coherency between hydrides and matrix, their elastic interactions with the applied stress, as well as their morphology-dependent interactions with grain boundaries. Here, the phase-field model presented here is generally applicable to hydride formation in any binary metal–hydrogen systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Foresee: A user-centric home energy management system for energy efficiency and demand response

This paper presents foresee, a user-centric home energy management system that can help optimize how a home operates to concurrently meet users' needs, achieve energy efficiency and commensurate utility cost savings, and reliably deliver grid services based on utility signals. Foresee is built on a multiobjective model predictive control framework, wherein the objectives consist of energy cost, thermal comfort, user convenience, and carbon emission. Foresee learns user preferences on different objectives and acts on their behalf to operate building equipment, such as home appliances, photovoltaic systems, and battery storage. In this work, machine-learning algorithms were used to derive data-driven appliance models and usage patterns to predict the home's future energy consumption. This approach enables highly accurate predictions of comfort needs, energy costs, environmental impacts, and grid service availability. Simulation studies were performed on field data from a residential building stock data set collected in the Pacific Northwest. Results indicated that foresee generated up to 7.6% whole-home energy savings without requiring substantial behavioral changes. When responding to demand response events, foresee was able to provide load forecasts upon receipt of event notifications and delivered the committed demand response services with 10% or fewer errors. Foresee fully utilized the potential of the battery storage and controllable building loads and delivered up to 7.0-kW load reduction and 13.5-kW load increase. As a result, these benefits are provided while maintaining the occupants' thermal comfort or convenience in using their appliances.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Feedback-Based Fault-Tolerant and Health-Adaptive Optimal Charging of Batteries

The key technology barriers that hinder the growth of Electric Vehicles (EVs) are long charging time, the shorter life-time of EV batteries, and battery safety. Specifically, EV charging protocols have significant effects on battery lifetime and safety. If not charged properly, the battery could end up with shorter life, and more importantly, improper charging can cause battery faults leading to catastrophic failures. To overcome these barriers, we propose a closed-loop feedback based approach, that enables real-time optimal fast charging protocol adaptation to battery health and possess active diagnostic capabilities in the sense that, during charging, it detects real-time faults and takes corrective action to mitigate such fault effects. We utilize battery electrical-thermal model, explicit battery capacity and power fade aging models, and thermal fault model to capture battery behavior. In conjunction with the models, we adopt linear quadratic optimal control techniques to realize the feedback-based control algorithm. Simulation studies are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

batteries↗

Evaluation of electric vehicle component performance over eco-driving cycles

We report that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are a critical pathway towards achieving energy independence and meeting greenhouse and criteria pollutant gas reduction goals in the current and future transportation sector. Emerging connected and automated vehicle (CAV) technologies further open the door for developing innovative applications and systems to leverage vehicle efficiency and substantially transform transportation systems. Therefore, we present a simulation study of various BEV types and compare the performance when driving on real-road drive cycles to highly optimized eco-driving cycles using advanced CAV technologies. Additionally, the results demonstrate that eco-driving has a high potential to reduce energy consumption for all types of BEVs considered. The investigated BEVs include a compact vehicle, a transit city bus, and a Class 7 delivery truck. The impact of eco-driving on conventional vehicles was also compared to comparable BEVs. Compared to the BEVs, eco-driving provides a larger reduction in the conventional vehicle's braking energy loss, and also provides conventional vehicles with greater reductions in the engine mechanical energy output but the fuel savings did not show a consistent trend among all the conventional vehicle types. As part of the study, a comprehensive EV powertrain model was developed to account for key EV components and powertrain configurations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Real-time hybrid controls of energy storage and load shedding for integrated power and energy systems of ships

This paper presents an original energy management methodology to enhance the resilience of ship power systems. The integration of various energy storage systems (ESS), including battery energy storage systems (BESS) and super-capacitor energy storage systems (SCESS), in modern ship power systems poses challenges in designing an efficient energy management system (EMS). The EMS proposed in this paper aims to achieve multiple objectives. The primary objective is to minimize shed loads, while the secondary objective is to effectively manage different types of ESS. Considering the diverse ramp-rate characteristics of generators, SCESS, and BESS, the proposed EMS exploits these differences to determine an optimal long-term schedule for minimizing shed loads. Furthermore, the proposed EMS balances the state-of-charge (SoC) of ESS and prioritizes the SCESS’s SoC levels to ensure the efficient operation of BESS and SCESS. For better computational efficiency, we introduce the receding horizon optimization method, enabling real-time EMS implementation. Further, a comparison with the fixed horizon optimization (FHO) validates its effectiveness. Simulation studies and results demonstrate that the proposed EMS efficiently manages generators, BESS, and SCESS, ensuring system resilience under generation shortages. Additionally, the proposed methodology significantly reduces the computational burden compared to the FHO technique while maintaining acceptable resilience performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

TRANSP-based optimization towards tokamak scenario development

An optimization approach that incorporates the predictive transport code TRANSP is proposed for tokamak scenario development. Optimization methods are often employed to develop open-loop control strategies to aid access to high performance tokamak scenarios. Generally, the optimization approaches use control-oriented models, i.e. models that are reduced in complexity and prediction accuracy as compared to physics-oriented transport codes such as TRANSP. In the presented approach, an optimization procedure using the TRANSP code to simulate the tokamak plasma is considered for improved predictive capabilities. As a test case, the neutral beam injection (NBI) power is optimized to develop a control strategy that maximizes the noninductive current fraction during the ramp-up phase for NSTX-U. Simulation studies towards the achievement of noninductive ramp-up in NSTX-U have already been carried out with the TRANSP code. The optimization-based approach presented in this work is used to maximize the noninductive current fraction during ramp-up in NSTX-U, demonstrating that the scenario development task can be automated. An additional test case considers optimization of the current ramp rate in DIII-D for obtaining a stationary plasma characterized by a flat loop voltage profile in the flattop phase.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Model Predictive Control of Discrete-Continuous Energy Systems via Generalized Disjunctive Programming

Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) provides an alternative framework to model optimization problems with both discrete and continuous variables. The key idea behind GDP involves the use of logical disjunctions to represent discrete decisions in the continuous space, and logical propositions to denote algebraic constraints in the discrete space. Compared to traditional mixed-integer programming (MIP), the inherent logic structure in GDP yields tighter relaxations that are exploited by global branch and bound algorithms to improve solution quality. In this paper, we present a general GDP model for optimal control of hybrid systems that exhibit both discrete and continuous dynamics. Specifically, we use GDP to formulate a model predictive control (MPC) model for piecewise-affine systems with implicit switching logic. As an example, the GDP-based MPC approach is used as a supervisory control to improve energy efficiency in residential buildings with binary on/off, relay-based thermostats. A simulation study is used to demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach, and the improved solution quality compared to existing MIPbased control approaches.

Bhattacharya, Arnab↗

Coordinated frequency regulation among asynchronous AC grids with an MTDC system

With the increasing penetration level of renewable power, the power systems’ inertias are decreasing. To ensure that the frequency is above the threshold of the under frequency load shedding, one effective way is to share the spinning reserves among asynchronous AC grids through HVDC systems. In this paper, a coordinated frequency regulation scheme that enables spinning reserves sharing is proposed for such hybrid AC/DC grids. This scheme is a communication-free method that consists of the droop control, the inertia emulation control and the frequency safety control. The combined response of the three controls can increase not only the frequency nadir but also the settled frequency of the disturbed grid. In addition, the hysteresis comparators and the power injection limits are adopted in the frequency regulation scheme to reduce the coupling effect among AC grids. Thus, under small and harmless disturbance, the frequency regulation scheme will be inactive; the disturbance in strong AC grids would not affect the weak AC systems. The frequency regulation scheme coordinates well with the automatic generation control of the grids. Furthermore, the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed frequency regulation scheme are verified through simulation studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

On Anomaly Detection for Transactive Energy Systems with Competitive Market

Two anomaly-detection criteria are proposed for transactive energy systems with competitive markets. Participants of transactive energy systems seek an optimal power allocation through hybrid economic-control methods to facilitate the integration of various types of distributed energy resources to power distribution systems. In transactive energy systems, every participant is assumed to be a rational entity, and consumers have diminishing marginal utility and suppliers have increasing marginal cost. With the first proposed anomaly-detection criterion, the monotonicity of marginal cost and marginal utility are examined. The impact of line flow constraints is also taken into consideration. Then, the second anomaly-detection criterion is proposed for TESs with marginal cost and marginal utility which change faster than a certain rate. The second criterion is more accurate than the first one for TES with marginal cost and marginal utility which change faster than a certain rate, but it requires the knowledge of that rate. Neither criteria requires more data than those necessary to find the optimal power allocation and the market-clear price in a transactive energy system. Therefore, the proposed criteria do not disclose any more data than necessary. As the monotonicity of marginal cost and marginal utility in a TES with competitive markets results in convex objective functions in an optimization problem and strongly convex ones when marginal cost and marginal utility changes faster than a certain rate, the two detection criteria are also applicable to anomaly detection of general convex optimization problems. Simulations are carried out to show the efficacy of the proposed criteria to detect anomalies caused by cyberattacks.

Wang, Peng↗

Microgrid energy scheduling under uncertain extreme weather: Adaptation from parallelized reinforcement learning agents

Microgrids are useful solutions for integrating renewable energy resources and providing seamless green electricity to minimize carbon footprint. In recent years, extreme weather events happened often worldwide and caused significant economic and societal losses. Such events bring uncertainties to the microgrid energy scheduling problems and increase the challenges of microgrid operation. Traditional optimization approaches suffer from the inaccuracy of the uncertain microgrid model and the unseen events. Existing reinforcement learning (RL) - based approaches are also hampered by the limited generalization and the increasing computational burden when stochastic formulations are required to accommodate the uncertainties. This paper proposes a new parallelized reinforcement learning (PRL) method based on the probabilistic events to handle the microgrid energy uncertainties. Specifically, several local learning agents are employed to interact with pertinent microgrid environments in a distributed manner and report outcomes to the global agent, which will optimize microgrid energy resources online during extreme events. The stochastic microgrid energy optimization problem is reformulated to include all possible scenarios with probabilities. The advantage estimate functions of learning agents are designed with a backward sweep to transfer the outcomes to the value function updating process. Two simulation studies, stochastic optimization and online testing, are performed to compare with several existing RL approaches. Results substantiate that the proposed PRL method can achieve up to 20% optimization performance improvement with 4 and 28 times less computation cost than Q-learning with experience replay and multi-agent Q-learning approaches, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cyclic loading–unloading impacts on geomechanical stability of multiple salt caverns for underground hydrogen storage

Underground caverns in a salt dome are promising geologic features to store hydrogen because of salt’s extremely low permeability and self-healing behavior. The salt cavern storage community, however, has not fully understood the geomechanical behaviors of salt rock driven by quick operation cycles of injection–production, which may significantly impact the cost-effective storage-recovery performance of multiple caverns. Our field-scale generic model captures the impact of cyclic loading–unloading on the salt creep behavior and deformation under different cycle frequencies, operating pressure, and spatial order of operating cavern(s). This systematic simulation study indicates that the initial operation cycle and arrangement of multiple caverns play a significant role in the creep-driven loss of cavern volumes and cavern deformation. Finally, our future study will develop a new salt constitutive model based on geomechanical tests of site-specific salt rock to probe the cyclic behaviors of salt precisely both beneath and above the dilatancy boundary, including reverse (inverse transient) creep, the Bauschinger effect, and damage-healing mechanism.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Resilient design in nuclear energy: Critical lessons from a cross-disciplinary analysis of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident

This paper presents a multidisciplinary analysis of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Along with the latest observations and simulation studies, we synthesize the time-series and event progressions during the accident across multiple disciplines, including in-plant physics and engineering systems, operators’ actions, emergency responses, meteorology, radionuclide release and transport, land contamination, and health impacts. We identify three key factors that exacerbated the consequences of the accident: (1) the failure of Unit 2 containment venting, (2) the insufficient integration of radiation measurements and meteorology data in the evacuation strategy, and (3) the limited risk assessment and emergency preparedness. We conclude with new research and development directions to improve the resilience of nuclear energy systems and communities, including (1) meteorology-informed proactive venting, (2) machine learning-enabled adaptive evacuation zones, and (3) comprehensive risk-informed emergency planning while leveraging the experience from responses to other disasters.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Primary radiation damage: A review of current understanding and models

Scientific understanding of any kind of radiation effects starts from the primary damage, i.e. the defects that are produced right after an initial atomic displacement event initiated by a high-energy particle. In this Review, we consider the extensive experimental and computer simulation studies that have been performed over the past several decades on what the nature of the primary damage is. We review both the production of crystallographic or topological defects in materials as well as radiation mixing, i.e. the process where atoms in perfect crystallographic positions exchange positions with other ones in non-defective positions. All classes of materials except biological materials are considered. We also consider the recent effort to provide alternatives to the current international standard for quantifying this energetic particle damage, the Norgett-Robinson-Torrens displacements per atom (NRT-dpa) model for metals. We present in detail new complementary displacement production estimators (“athermal recombination corrected dpa”, arc-dpa) and atomic mixing (“replacements per atom”, rpa) functions that extend the NRT-dpa, and discuss their advantages and limitations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Targeted inhibition of MASTL kinase activity induces apoptosis in breast cancer

Microtubule-associated serine/threonine kinase-like (MASTL) (or Greatwall kinase (GWL)) is an important cell cycle regulating kinase that regulates the G2-M transition. Uncontrolled MASTL activity is implicated in breast cancer progression. To date, very few inhibitors have been reported against this protein. Here, structure-based computational modeling indicates that the natural product flavopiridol (FLV) binds strongly to MASTL and these results are validated using molecular dynamics simulation studies. Further, an in vitro kinase assay reveals an EC 50 (effective concentration) value of FLV to be 82.1 nM and a better IC 50 compared to the positive reference compound, staurosporine. FLV is found to inhibit MASTL kinase activity, arresting the cell growth in the G1 phase and inducing apoptosis in breast cancer cells. Consistent with these results differential gene expression obtained using RNA sequencing studies, and validated by RT PCR and immunoblot analysis, indicate that MASTL inhibition induces cell cycle arrest and apoptotic-related genes. Furthermore, metastasis- and inflammation- related genes are downregulated. Thus, the deregulation of MASTL signaling pathways on targeted inhibition of its kinase activity is revealed. This study lays a strong foundation for investigating FLV as a lead compound in breast cancer therapeutics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗