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At least 1,585 records · Page 88

Sequential Bayesian inference of transition rates in the hidden Markov model for multi-state system degradation

The more easily available system performance data and advances in data analytics have provided us with opportunities to optimize maintenance programs for engineered systems, for example nuclear power plants. One key task in maintenance optimization is to obtain an accurate model for system degradation. Here, in this research, we propose a Bayesian method to address this problem. Noting that systems usually exhibit multiple states and that the actual state of a system usually is not directly observable, in the method we first model the system degradation process and the observation process based on a hidden Markov model. Then we develop a sequential Bayesian inference algorithm based on importance sampling and the forward algorithm to infer the posterior distributions of the transition rates in the hidden Markov model based on available observations. The proposed Bayesian method allows us to take advantage of evidence from multiple sources, and also allows us to perform Bayesian inference sequentially, without the need to use the entire history of observations every time new observations are collected. We demonstrate the proposed method using both synthetic data for a nuclear power plant feedwater pump and realistic data for a nuclear power plant chemistry analytical device.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Epidural anesthesia needle guidance by forward-view endoscopic optical coherence tomography and deep learning

Epidural anesthesia requires injection of anesthetic into the epidural space in the spine. Accurate placement of the epidural needle is a major challenge. To address this, we developed a forward-view endoscopic optical coherence tomography (OCT) system for real-time imaging of the tissue in front of the needle tip during the puncture. We tested this OCT system in porcine backbones and developed a set of deep learning models to automatically process the imaging data for needle localization. A series of binary classification models were developed to recognize the five layers of the backbone, including fat, interspinous ligament, ligamentum flavum, epidural space, and spinal cord. The classification models provided an average classification accuracy of 96.65%. During puncture, it is important to maintain a safe distance between the needle tip and the dura mater. Regression models were developed to estimate that distance based on the OCT imaging data. Based on the Inception architecture, our models achieved a mean absolute percentage error of 3.05% ± 0.55%. Overall, our results validated the technical feasibility of using this novel imaging strategy to automatically recognize different tissue structures and measure the distances ahead of the needle tip during the epidural needle placement.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Heat Integration Optimization and Dynamic Modeling Investigation for Advancing the Coal-Direct Chemical Looping Process

The purpose of the project is to address the optimization and startup operation of a modular coal direct chemical looping (CDCL) combustion system integrated with a steam cycle for power generation to reduce the risks involved in further scale-up of the technology. The modular reactor design of the CDCL process provides flexibility in the fabrication of the reactor and in its operating capacity (i.e. turndown ratio) at the cost of a more complex heat exchange network (HEN) design and integration. To address the technology gaps and advance the efficiency and economic feasibility of the CDCL technology, the project will perform a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the integration of a modular CDCL reactor system and a steam cycle system under both static and transient conditions via HEN process performance simulations and system dynamic modeling, respectively. The scope of work consists of 1) Experimental and computational studies of the CDCL combustor reactor 2) Comprehensive static (i.e. steady-state) system HEN design analysis in CDCL 550 MWe commercial unit for power generation and 3) Dynamic modeling of site specific design of 10MWe CDCL large pilot plant. The project team has successfully developed and validated a kinetic model for the oxidation of oxygen carriers in the combustor using the unreacted shrinking core model (UCSM). The model is capable of capturing the oxidation kinetics of fully or partially reduced oxygen carrier particles. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is developed to simulate the hydrodynamics, heat transfer, and chemical reaction occurring in the CDCL combustor. The model is developed in MFIX and ANSYS Fluent. Key aspects of CDCL combustor operation, including heat transfer, oxygen carrier oxidation, and the transport of oxygen carrier particles, are simulated using this CFD model. The HEN for a commercial scale 550 MWe CDCL power plant is simulated and optimized using ASPEN Plus. Practical design considerations are incorporated based on industrial experiences. The performance and cost for the commercial CDCL plant is updated based on these analyses. A dynamic model for the 10 MWe CDCL pilot plant is developed in ProTRAX simulation software. The model is based on the pilot plant design developed in project DE-FE0027654 “10 MWe CDCL Large Pilot Plang – Pre-FEED Study” and the steam cycle data obtained from Dover Light & Power plant. The transient behaviors during pilot plant load variation are simulated using the dynamic model.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

SMART SiC Power ICs: Scalable, Manufacturable, and Robust Technology for SiC Power Integrated Circuits (Final Technical Report)

This collaborative project was initiated with the goal of developing Scalable, Manufacturable, and Robust Technology for SiC Power Integrated Circuits (SMART SiC Power ICs). In pursuit of this objective, innovative designs and fabrication processes were implemented, enabling the development of large-scale (>1 cm²) SiC Complementary Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor (CMOS) integrated circuits and high-voltage (400–600 V) lateral power MOSFETs (HV-LDMOS) on 150 mm 4H-SiC substrates. The resulting SMART SiC Power ICs are tailored to support a wide range of applications requiring diverse voltage and power levels, including automotive systems, industrial equipment, electronic data processing, energy harvesting, and power conditioning. To achieve the proposed ‘SMART’ technology for SiC ICs, the team focused on 1) the Development of highly scalable CMOS (with high channel mobilities for n-type and p-type MOSFETs), LDMOS (~600V, 10A rated), and IC technologies, 2) Establishment of a manufacturable process baseline in a production-grade-, 150mm, SiC fabrication facility, and 3) Demonstration of SMART SiC ICs. The project initially comprised of fabricating 5 lots. In lot 1 monolithic integration using a single process was achieved. Here, we were able to successfully accomplish Integrated HV NMOSFET with LV CMOS on N-epi/N+ Substrate. The HV NMOS demonstrated a Breakdown Voltage (BV) more than 600V. Circuit demonstration of CMOS was also another achievement from this lot. In lot 2, priority was in place for isolation and integration. Here we addressed the isolation concerns and integrated the HV NMOS and LV CMOS using the N-epi/P-epi/N+ substrate. Similar to the lot 1, we were able to achieve a BV of 600 V for HV NMOS. Optimized gate oxide process with high channel mobilities, better gate oxide reliability, development of SPICE models, successful ohmic process development, novel wafer area saving design layouts, P+ isolation schemes with channeling implantations and high temperature operational circuits demonstrations are some of the key highlights from lot 1 and lot2. In lot 3, discrete device performances of HV NMOS with a BV ~700V and reliable LV CMOS performances were achieved. Also, novel architectural solutions were successfully implemented to suppress the electric field crowding at the gate oxide for reliable operations. In lot 4, half bridge power driver ICs with a conversion efficiency of (target 90% to 95%) in the 1-5MHz switching frequency range for output power between 25 W to 3 kW have been included in. However, due to the unfortunate events of sudden foundry shutdown (SiCamore Semi) the processing of lot 4 wafers came to a complete stop (January 2024). Arrangements have recently been made to shift the fabrication to another foundry, General Electric Aerospace. The fabrication process now on course (as of December 2024). Characterizations are delayed due to this unfortunate circumstance. The proposed trench architectural-based devices and ICs (lot 5) underwent modifications from the original project proposal. This change was necessitated by limitations in the availability of trench-based processes at commercial production-grade fabrication facilities in the US. Apart from above achievements, a Process Development Kit (PDK) was successfully developed for planar type SiC CMOS/LDMOS.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Validation of the Community Land Model Version 5 over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using in-situ and remote sensing datasets

The Community Land Model (CLM) is an effective tool to simulate the biophysical and biogeochemical processes and their interactions with the atmosphere. Although CLM Version 5 (CLM5) constitutes various updates in these processes, its performance in simulating energy, water and carbon cycles over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) at scales which land surface changes and hydrometeorological and hydroclimatological applications are more locally relevant is yet to be assessed. In this study, we conducted three simulations at 0.125? during 1979-2018 over the CONUS using different configurations of CLM, namely CLM5-biogeochemistry (CLM5BGC), CLM4.5BGC, and CLM5-satellite phenology (CLM5SP). We validated and compared their simulations against multiple remote-sensed and in-situ datasets. Overall, the parametric and structural updates (e.g., carbon cost for nitrogen uptake, variable soil thickness, dry surface layer) in CLM5 improve its ability in capturing terrestrial biogeochemical dynamics. The low evapotranspiration in CLM5BGC is associated with biases in simulating vegetation phenological characteristics rather than soil water limitations. The mismatch between CLM5BGC-simulated peak leaf area index and reference data can be attributed to CLM5BGC's inability in simulating phenology of trees and grasses. The differences between CLM-simulated irrigation and reference estimates can be attributed to differences between processes represented in models and in reality, and uncertainties in input and validation datasets. Evaluation against observations at small catchments suggest that hydrologic parameters needed to be calibrated to improve simulations of runoff, especially subsurface runoff. Additional efforts are needed to incorporate spatially-distributed plant phenology and physiology parameters and regional-specific agricultural management practices (e.g., planting, harvest).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulator for Hydrologic Unstructured Domains (SHUD v1.0): numerical modeling of watershed hydrology with the finite volume method

Abstract. Hydrologic modeling is an essential strategy for understanding and predicting natural flows, particularly where observations are lacking in either space or time or where complex terrain leads to a disconnect in the characteristic time and space scales of overland and groundwater flow. However, significant difficulties remain for the development of efficient and extensible modeling systems that operate robustly across complex regions. This paper introduces the Simulator for Hydrologic Unstructured Domains (SHUD), an integrated, multiprocess, multiscale, flexible-time-step model, in which hydrologic processes are fully coupled using the finite volume method. SHUD integrates overland flow, snow accumulation/melt, evapotranspiration, subsurface flow, groundwater flow, and river routing, thus allowing physical processes in general watersheds to be realistically captured. SHUD incorporates one-dimensional unsaturated flow, two-dimensional groundwater flow, and a fully connected river channel network with hillslopes supporting overland flow and baseflow. The paper introduces the design of SHUD, from the conceptual and mathematical description of hydrologic processes in a watershed to the model's computational structures. To demonstrate and validate the model performance, we employ three hydrologic experiments: the V-catchment experiment, Vauclin's experiment, and a model study of the Cache Creek Watershed in northern California. Ongoing applications of the SHUD model include hydrologic analyses of hillslope to regional scales (1 m2 to 106 km2), water resource and stormwater management, and interdisciplinary research for questions in limnology, agriculture, geochemistry, geomorphology, water quality, ecology, climate and land-use change. The strength of SHUD is its flexibility as a scientific and resource evaluation tool where modeling and simulation are required.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Integration of Condition-Based, Diagnostic, Prognostic, And Anomaly Detection Data into Reliability Models to Support a Predictive Maintenance Context

Reliability data employed in plant reliability models are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating actual health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). This paper proposes a reliability modeling approach that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. We show how state-of-the art condition-based, diagnostic, prognostic, and anomaly detection models can be linked to system reliability models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Then, we show how the propagation of margin data from the asset to the system level is performed through classical reliability models such as fault trees or reliability block diagrams. The described method is in fact able to propagate heterogenous health data from the asset to the system level in order to analytically assess system health.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Explaining persistent incomplete mixing in multicomponent reactive transport with Eulerian stochastic model

We present an Eulerian stochastic advection–diffusion–reaction (SADR) model and use it to explain incomplete mixing typically observed in transport experiments with bimolecular reactions. Unlike traditional advection– dispersion–reaction (ADR) models, the SADR model describes mechanical and diffusive mixing as two separate processes. In the SADR model, mechanical mixing is driven by random advective velocity whose variance is given by the coefficient of mechanical dispersion. The diffusive mixing is modeled as a Fickian diffusion process with the effective diffusion coefficient. We demonstrate that the sum of the two coefficients is equal to the dispersion coefficient, but only the effective diffusion coefficient contributes to the mixing-controlled reactions. We use experimental results of Gramling et al. * * to show that for transport and bimolecular reactions in porous media, the SADR model is significantly more accurate than the ADR model, which overestimates the concentration of the reaction product by as much as 60%. We also show that the SADR model predicts an experimentally observed bell- shaped spatial distribution of the reactive product concentration, while the ADR model results in a concentration distribution with an unphysical kink.

Bimolecular reactions, incomplete mixing, Stochast↗

UAS remote sensing (Autel EVO II platform): Red-green-blue (RGB) imagery and derived products (Level 0-2 data), Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2022

Airborne remote sensing data collected using a optical red-green-blue (RGB) sensor installed on an Autel EVO II unoccupied aerial system (UAS). This package includes data from 15 flights flown over the NGEE-Arctic Council Mile Marker (MM) 71, Kougarok MM64, and Teller MM27 sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska USA, in July 2022. This package provides the Level 0 (raw, unprocessed) data collected by the platform and sensors, and Level 1-2 processed products including digital surface models (DSM), photo orthomosaics, canopy height models (CHM) and digital terrain models (DTM). Ancillary aircraft data, flight mission parameters, and general flight conditions provided by the onboard flight and data collection computers are also included. Data and metadata are provided as image (*.jpg, *.tif), point cloud (*.laz), tabular (*.csv) and *.pdf formats. Raw images are compressed as tar.gz. The metadata documents contain flight campaign, platform, sensor, flight and file metadata, along with a description of the data and file naming scheme.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

UAS remote sensing (Autel EVO II platform): Red-green-blue (RGB) imagery and derived products (Level 0-2 data), Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2023

Airborne remote sensing data collected using a optical red-green-blue (RGB) sensor installed on an Autel EVO II unoccupied aerial system (UAS). This package includes data from 4 flights flown over the NGEE-Arctic Council Mile Marker (MM) 71 and Teller MM27 sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska USA, in July 2023. This package provides the Level 0 (raw, unprocessed) data collected by the platform and sensors, and Level 1-2 processed products including digital surface models (DSM), photo orthomosaics, canopy height models (CHM) and digital terrain models (DTM). Ancillary aircraft data, flight mission parameters, and general flight conditions provided by the onboard flight and data collection computers are also included. Data and metadata are provided as image (*.jpg, *.tif), point cloud (*.laz), tabular (*.csv) and *.pdf formats. Raw images are compressed as tar.gz. The metadata documents contain flight campaign, platform, sensor, flight and file metadata, along with a description of the data and file naming scheme.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lifetime of actin-dependent protein nanoclusters

Protein nanoclusters (PNCs) are dynamic collections of a few proteins that spatially organize in nanometer-length clusters. PNCs are one of the principal forms of spatial organization of membrane proteins, and they have been shown or hypothesized to be important in various cellular processes, including cell signaling. PNCs show remarkable diversity in size, shape, and lifetime. In particular, the lifetime of PNCs can vary over a wide range of timescales. The diversity in size and shape can be explained by the interaction of the clustering proteins with the actin cytoskeleton or the lipid membrane, but very little is known about the processes that determine the lifetime of the nanoclusters. In this paper, using mathematical modeling of the cluster dynamics, we model the biophysical processes that determine the lifetime of actin-dependent PNCs. In particular, we investigated the role of actin aster fragmentation, which had been suggested to be a key determinant of the PNC lifetime, and we found that it is important only for a small class of PNCs. A simple extension of our model allowed us to investigate the kinetics of protein-ligand interaction near PNCs. We found an anomalous increase in the lifetime of ligands near PNCs, which agrees remarkably well with experimental data on RAS-RAF kinetics. In particular, analysis of the RAS-RAF data through our model provides falsifiable predictions and novel hypotheses that will not only shed light on the role of RAS-RAF kinetics in various cancers, but also will be useful in studying membrane protein clustering in general.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison

Abstract. This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0–20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air–surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land–atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗