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NASA NTRS2005

The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum

In August 2004, representatives from NOAA, NASA, the USGS, and other government agencies convened in San Juan, Puerto Rim for a workshop to discuss a proposed research project called the Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum (HFLC). The essence of the HFLC is to develop and integrate tools across disciplines to enable the issuance of regional guidance products for floods and landslides associated with major tropical rain systems, with sufficient lead time that local emergency managers can protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure. All three lead agencies are independently developing precipitation-flood-debris flow forecasting technologies, and all have a history of work on natural hazards both domestically and overseas. NOM has the capability to provide tracking and prediction of storm rainfall, trajectory and landfall and is developing flood probability and magnTtude capabilities. The USGS has the capability to evaluate the ambient stability of natural and man-made landforms, to assess landslide susceptibilities for those landforms, and to establish probabilities for initiation of landslides and debris flows. Additionally, the USGS has well-developed operational capacity for real-time monitoring and reporting of streamflow across distributed networks of automated gaging stations (http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/). NASA has the capability to provide sophisticated algorithms for satellite remote sensing of precipitation, land use, and in the future, soil moisture. The Workshop sought to initiate discussion among three agencies regarding their specific and highly complimentary capabilities. The fundamental goal of the Workshop was to establish a framework that will leverage the strengths of each agency. Once a prototype system is developed for example, in relatively data-rich Puerto Rim, it could be adapted for use in data-poor, low-infrastructure regions such as the Dominican Republic or Haiti. This paper provides an overview of the Workshop s goals, presentations and recommendations with respect to the development of the HFLC.

Negri, Andrew J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Organics in Meteorites, False Biomarkers, and the Search for Life in the Solar System

The tons of extraterrestrial organic material that come to the Earth every day probably helped to made the Earth habitable, and possibly played a role in the origin of life. At the astrochemistry lab (http://www.astrochem.org) we investigate the formation and distribution of organic molecules in space and consider the impact such molecules may have on the habitability of planets and the search for life in the Solar System. The organic compounds in meteorites include amino acids, aromatics of various sorts including purine and pyrimidine bases, and fatty acids that form bi-layer vesicles. The origin of many of these species remains mysterious, but in recent years we and others have performed experiments that suggest low temperature radiation chemistry could account for the presence and deuterium enrichment of many of these molecules.

Bernstein, Todd↗
NASA NTRS2014

Effects of Varying Proportions of Glass on Reflectance Spectra of HED Polymict Breccias

Some meteorites contain significant amounts of glass, which, in most cases, probably results from impact processes on parent bodies.. Yamato 82202 is an example of one of the unequilibrated eucrites that contains significant proportions of impact glass distributed as veins throughout the meteorite. In other cases, fragments of glass are distributed throughout polymict breccias. For example, the polymict eucrite EET 87509 contains rare angular fragments of devitrified glass. Proportions of glass in most of these meteorites and in lithic clasts within these meteorites may vary locally from small amounts (less than one percent) to much larger amounts (subequal proportions of glass and mineral material). For example, some fragments within the South African polymict eucrite Macibini contain approximately 50% glass. The presence of these variable proportions of meteorite glass confirm the increased recognition that impact processes played an important role in the histories of asteroidal bodies. This study attempts to quantify the effects of a glass component on reflectance spectra by analyzing in the laboratory mixtures of varying proportions of a well-characterized HED polymict breccia and glass derived by melting a bulk sample of that breccia.

Buchanan, P. C.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Climate Shifts Within Major Agricultural Seasons for +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds: HAPPI Projections and AgMIP Modeling Scenarios

This study compares climate changes in major agricultural regions and current agricultural seasons associated with global warming of +1.5 or +2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions. It describes the generation of climate scenarios for agricultural modeling applications conducted as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments. Climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted from RCP4.5 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Focusing on food and agricultural systems and top-producing breadbaskets in particular, we distinguish maize, rice, wheat, and soy season changes from global annual mean climate changes. Many agricultural regions warm at a rate that is faster than the global mean surface temperature (including oceans) but slower than the mean land surface temperature, leading to regional warming that exceeds 0.5 °C between the +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds. Agricultural growing seasons warm at a pace slightly behind the annual temperature trends in most regions, while precipitation increases slightly ahead of the annual rate. Rice cultivation regions show reduced warming as they are concentrated where monsoon rainfall is projected to intensify, although projections are influenced by Asian aerosol loading in climate mitigation scenarios. Compared to CMIP5, HAPPI slightly underestimates the CO2 concentration that corresponds to the +1.5 °C World but overestimates the CO2 concentration for the +2.0 °C World, which means that HAPPI scenarios may also lead to an overestimate in the beneficial effects of CO2 on crops in the +2.0 °C World. HAPPI enables detailed analysis of the shifting distribution of extreme growing season temperatures and precipitation, highlighting widespread increases in extreme heat seasons and heightened skewness toward hot seasons in the tropics. Shifts in the probability of extreme drought seasons generally tracked median precipitation changes; however, some regions skewed toward drought conditions even where median precipitation changes were small. Together, these findings highlight unique seasonal and agricultural region changes in the +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C worlds for adaptation planning in these climate stabilization targets.

Alexander C. Ruane↗
NASA NTRS1990

Martian crater counts on Elysium Mons

Without returned samples from the Martian surface, relative age chronologies and stratigraphic relationships provide the best information for determining the ages of geomorphic features and surface regions. Crater-size frequency distributions of six recently mapped geological units of Elysium Mons were measured to establish their relative ages. Most of the craters on Elysium Mons and the adjacent plains units are between 500 and 1000 meters in diameter. However, only craters 1 km in diameter or larger were used because of inadequate spatial resolution of some of the Viking images and to reduce probability of counting secondary craters. The six geologic units include all of the Elysium Mons construct and a portion of the plains units west of the volcano. The surface area of the units studied is approximately 128,000 sq km. Four of the geologic units were used to create crater distribution curves. There are no craters larger than 1 km within the Elysium Mons caldera. Craters that lacked raised rims, were irregularly shaped, or were arranged in a linear pattern were assumed to be endogenic in origin and not counted. A crater frequency distribution analysis is presented.

Mcbride, Kathleen↗
NASA NTRS1969

Some aspects of remote atmospheric sensing by laser radar

An analysis has been made of some aspects of atmospheric sensing by laser radar spectroscopy. A discussion of the laser radar equation is presented which leads to methods for obtaining atmospheric information by spectroscopic means. Calculations are presented which investigate the potential of Doppler, Raman and differential absorption techniques. It is concluded that atmospheric measurements based upon Doppler and Raman approaches are restricted to qualitative studies at the present time primarily because of the limitations imposed by existing laser sources and detectors. It is probable that these limitations will be removed in the near future and it is recommended that exploratory experiments be continued. The differential absorption method for obtaining the spatial distribution of atmospheric gases is well developed for such gases as water vapor and oxygen where the basic laser frequency lies close to the center of the particular absorption line. Further investigation is recommended in the field of laser frequency shifting. Additional information is also required on the shape of the absorption line, particular in the region where the line reflects both pressure and Doppler broadening.

Schotland, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Remote optical measurement of wind speed spectra

The paper presents some new analytical and experimental results on the cross-correlation function and power spectrum for the flow speed by the passive optical crossed-beam correlation technique. Cross-correlation functions of crossed-beam measurements for both intersecting beams and separated beams have been reviewed for the case of varying wind speeds. The corresponding spectral density functions were derived and expressed in terms of the probability density of wind speed variations and the correlation of atmospheric turbulent eddies. The associated spectral density for a special approximate model was derived by assuming a Gaussian distribution of transit times. The theoretical predictions were then compared with actual field test data, and a reasonably good agreement in the valid frequency range was observed.

Su, M.-Y.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Detection of digital FSK using a phase-locked loop

A theory is presented for the design of a digital FSK receiver which employs a phase-locked loop to set up the desired matched filter as the arriving signal frequency switches. The developed mathematical model makes it possible to establish the error probability performance of systems which employ a class of digital FM modulations. The noise mechanism which accounts for decision errors is modeled on the basis of the Meyr distribution and renewal Markov process theory.

Lindsey, W. C.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Flight-Stability Extremes Calculated From the Uncertainty Ellipse

Tangents and normals to ellipse derived for situations with two correlated aerodynamic force or moment variables having normally (Gaussian) distributed uncertainty. Although transformations and vector calculations tedious when done by hand, equations in closed form and give rapid results when performed by computers or programable desk calculators. Probability extremes of ratios and magnitude obtained directly, without repeated table lookup or other complication.

Dominik, D. F.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Flexible radiator thermal vacuum test report

Two flexible, deployable/retraction radiators were designed and fabricated. The two radiator panels are distinguishable by their mission life design. One panel is designed with a 90 percent probability of withstanding the micrometeoroid environment of a low earth orbit for 30 days. This panel is designated the soft tube radiator after the PFA Teflon tubes which distribute the transport fluid over the panel. The second panel is designed with armored flow tubes to withstand the same micrometeoroid environment for 5 years. It is designated the hard tube radiator after its stainless steel flow tubes. The thermal performance of the radiators was tested under anticipated environmental conditions. The two deployment systems of the radiators were evaluated in a thermal vacuum environment.

Oren, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The abundance of interstellar sulphur and zinc in high density sight-lines

On the basis of early absorption line studies of individual lines of sight with the Copernicus satellite, chlorine, sulphur and zinc were classed together as elements which showed little or no depletion, relative to hydrogen, in the interstellar medium. The abundances of other less volatile elements, such as Fe and Mg were found to vary widely from one sight-line to another with gas-phase abundances in some cases being orders of magnitude below their solar counterparts. Detailed studies are reported of the depletion/density behavior of two other volatile elements which were previously considered to be virtually undepleted, S and Zn, using equivalent width data from both Copernicus and IUE observations. The results provide further evidence that the established dependence of depletion on n bar (H) extends to volatile elements and show that their use as tracers of metallicity, or for estimating hydrogen column densities, may lead to large errors in sight-lines through dense regions. It now appears that such elements may take part in the surface chemistry of grains and be important constituents of grain mantle material, although they probably do not contribute significantly to the bulk mass of grains. Due to the very similar atomic masses and ionization potentials of sulphur and phosphorous, the thermal velocity distributions of the singly ionized species of these elements in interstellar clouds should be very similar. However, a comparison of Doppler widths (b-values) derived for SIT and PIT in the same sight-lines from the Bohlin et al Copernicus equivalent width measurements has revealed an unexpected systematic discrepancy of a factor of approx. 1.7. This Discrepancy indicates that the normally adopted oscillators strengths of the PII lambda lambda 1153 and 1302 A lines may require revision.

Harris, A. W.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The redshift peak at z = 0.06

A catalog of galaxies whose optical spectra contain strong broad emission lines and continua, probably of nonthermal origin, has been completed. The catalog contains about 900 objects, about 700 of which have z of 0.2 or less. A histogram of the redshift distribution for all of the objects in the redshift range 0.02-0.2 and with a large peak at z = 0.06 is shown. Possible interpretations of the peak, which was first seen in 1968, are considered. It is concluded that the only way to explain the peak (and others like it that make up a series of peaks) and still maintain the cosmological redshift hypothesis is to go to cosmological models in which the universe has a multiply connected topology.

Burbidge, G.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Inverse sequential procedures for the monitoring of time series

Climate changes traditionally have been detected from long series of observations and long after they happened. The 'inverse sequential' monitoring procedure is designed to detect changes as soon as they occur. Frequency distribution parameters are estimated both from the most recent existing set of observations and from the same set augmented by 1,2,...j new observations. Individual-value probability products ('likelihoods') are then calculated which yield probabilities for erroneously accepting the existing parameter(s) as valid for the augmented data set and vice versa. A parameter change is signaled when these probabilities (or a more convenient and robust compound 'no change' probability) show a progressive decrease. New parameters are then estimated from the new observations alone to restart the procedure. The detailed algebra is developed and tested for Gaussian means and variances, Poisson and chi-square means, and linear or exponential trends; a comprehensive and interactive Fortran program is provided in the appendix.

Radok, Uwe↗
NASA NTRS1993

Radiative lifetimes, branching rations, and absolute transition probabilities in Cr II and Zn II

New absolute atomic transition probability measurements are reported for 12 transitions in Cr II and two transitions in Zn II. These transition probabilities are determined by combining branching ratios measured by classical techniques and radiative lifetimes measured by time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence. The measurements are compared with branching fractions, radiative lifetimes, and transition probabilities in the literature. The 206 nm resonance multiplets in Cr II and Zn II are included in this work. These multiplets are very useful in determining the distribution of the elements in the gas versus grain phases in the interstellar medium.

Bergeson, S. D.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Global Distribution of Density Irregularities in the Equatorial Ionosphere

We analyzed measurements of ion number density made by the retarding potential analyzer aboard the Atmosphere Explorer-E (AE-E) satellite, which was in an approximately circular orbit at an altitude near 300 km in 1977 and later at an altitude near 400 km. Large-scale (greater than 60 km) density measurements in the high-altitude regions show large depletions of bubble-like structures which are confined to narrow local time longitude, and magnetic latitude ranges, while those in the low-altitude regions show relatively small depletions which are broadly distributed,in space. For this reason we considered the altitude regions below 300 km and above 350 km and investigated the global distribution of irregularities using the rms deviation delta N/N over a path length of 18 km as an indicator of overall irregularity intensity. Seasonal variations of irregularity occurrence probability are significant in the Pacific regions, while the occurrence probability is always high in die Atlantic-African regions and is always low in die Indian regions. We find that the high occurrence probability in the Pacific regions is associated with isolated bubble structures, while that near 0 deg longitude is produced by large depictions with bubble structures which are superimposed on a large-scale wave-like background. Considerations of longitude variations due to seeding mechanisms and due to F region winds and drifts are necessary to adequately explain the observations at low and high altitudes. Seeding effects are most obvious near 0 deg longitude, while the most easily observed effect of the F region is the suppression of irregularity growth by interhemispheric neutral winds.

Kil, Hyosub↗
NASA NTRS2001

Ar Atmosphere: Implications for Structure and Composition of Mercury's Crust

We examine the possibilities of sustaining an argon atmosphere by diffusion from the upper 10 km of crust, and alternatively by effusion from a molten or previously molten area at great depth . Ar-40 in the atmospheres of the planets is a measure of potassium abundance in the interiors since Ar-40 is a product of radiogenic decay of K-40 by electron capture with the subsequent emission of a 1.46 eV gamma-ray. Although the Ar-40 in the earth's atmosphere is expected to have accumulated since the late bombardment, Ar-40 in surface-bounded exospheres is eroded quickly by photoionization and electron impact ionization. Thus, the argon content in the exospheres of the Moon, Mercury and probably Europa is representative of current effusion rather than accumulation over the lifetime of the body. Argon content will be a function of K content, temperature, grain size distribution, connected pore volume and possible seismic activity. Although Mercury and the Moon differ in many details, we can train the solutions to diffusion equations to predict the average lunar atmosphere. Then these parameters can be varied for Hermean conditions. Assuming a lunar crustal potassium abundance of 300 ppm, the observed argon atmosphere requires equilibrium between the argon production in the upper 9 Km of the moon (1.135 x 10(exp -3) cm(exp -3) s(exp -1)) and its loss. Hodges et al. conclude that this loss rate and the observed time variability requires argon release through seismic activity, tapping a deep argon source. An important observation is that the extreme surface of the Moon is enhanced in argon rather than depleted, as one would expect from outgassing of radiogenic argon. Manka and Michel concluded that ion implantation explains the surface enhancement of Ar-40. About half of the argon ions produced in the lunar atmosphere would return to the surface, where they would become embedded in the rocks. Similarly, at Mercury we expect the surface rocks to be enhanced in Ar-40 wherever the magnetosphere has been open over time. Thus the measurement of surface composition will reveal the long-term effects of solar wind-magnetosphere interaction. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Killen, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Position Error Covariance Matrix Validation and Correction

In order to calculate operationally accurate collision probabilities, the position error covariance matrices predicted at times of closest approach must be sufficiently accurate representations of the position uncertainties. This presentation will discuss why the Gaussian distribution is a reasonable expectation for the position uncertainty and how this assumed distribution type is used in the validation and correction of position error covariance matrices.

Frisbee, Joe, Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Spitzer Microlensing Parallax Reveals Two Isolated Stars in the Galactic Bulge

We report the mass and distance measurements of two single-lens events from the 2017 Spitzer microlensing campaign. The ground-based observations yield the detection of finite-source effects, and the microlens parallaxes are derived from the joint analysis of ground-based observations and Spitzer observations. We find that the lens of OGLE-2017-BLG-1254 is a 0.60 ± 0.03 M⊙ star with D(LS) = 0.53 ± 0.11 kpc, where D(LS) is the distance between the lens and the source. The second event, OGLE-2017-BLG-1161, is subject to the known satellite parallax degeneracy, and thus is either a 0.51(sup +0.12, sub 3-0.10)M⊙ star with D(LS) = 0.40 ± 0.12 kpc or a 0.38(sup +0.13, sub -0.12) M⊙ star with D(LS) = 0.53 ± 0.19 kpc. Both of the lenses are therefore isolated stars in the Galactic bulge. By comparing the mass and distance distributions of the eight published Spitzer finite-source events with the expectations from a Galactic model, we find that the Spitzer sample is in agreement with the probability of finite-source effects occurring in single-lens events.

Weicheng Zang↗