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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,585 records · Page 88
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1976

Assessment of NDE Reliability Data

Twenty sets of relevant Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) reliability data have been identified, collected, compiled, and categorized. A criterion for the selection of data for statistical analysis considerations has been formulated. A model to grade the quality and validity of the data sets has been developed. Data input formats, which record the pertinent parameters of the defect/specimen and inspection procedures, have been formulated for each NDE method. A comprehensive computer program has been written to calculate the probability of flaw detection at several confidence levels by the binomial distribution. This program also selects the desired data sets for pooling and tests the statistical pooling criteria before calculating the composite detection reliability. Probability of detection curves at 95 and 50 percent confidence levels have been plotted for individual sets of relevant data as well as for several sets of merged data with common sets of NDE parameters.

Yee, B. G. W.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Probabilities and statistics for backscatter estimates obtained by a scatterometer with applications to new scatterometer design data

The values of the Normalized Radar Backscattering Cross Section (NRCS), sigma (o), obtained by a scatterometer are random variables whose variance is a known function of the expected value. The probability density function can be obtained from the normal distribution. Models for the expected value obtain it as a function of the properties of the waves on the ocean and the winds that generated the waves. Point estimates of the expected value were found from various statistics given the parameters that define the probability density function for each value. Random intervals were derived with a preassigned probability of containing that value. A statistical test to determine whether or not successive values of sigma (o) are truly independent was derived. The maximum likelihood estimates for wind speed and direction were found, given a model for backscatter as a function of the properties of the waves on the ocean. These estimates are biased as a result of the terms in the equation that involve natural logarithms, and calculations of the point estimates of the maximum likelihood values are used to show that the contributions of the logarithmic terms are negligible and that the terms can be omitted.

Pierson, Willard J., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probability Density Function Control of Frequency Fluctuations in Renewable-Rich Power Systems

The stochastic nature of renewable energy sources (RESs) necessitates treating power system frequency response as a random process with a nonstationary probability density function (PDF). Here, based upon the stochastic distribution control theory originated by the second author, this paper proposes a novel stochastic controller to improve the frequency PDF in power grids when integrating a large amount of RESs, thereby minimizing the effects of uncertainties and enhancing overall system stability. The key idea is to manipulate the controllable power generation resources so that the frequency PDF is make to follow a target PDF by using the stochastic distribution control theory originated by the second author. The proposed method can easily be plugged into existing automatic generation controls for multi-area transmission grids. The proposed method is validated via a modified Kundar's two area system and 240-bus Western Electricity Coordinating Council systems. The simulation results show that the proposed control shapes the frequency PDF narrower and sharper, leading to a notable improvement toward minimizing the effects of randomness and uncertainty during grid operation.

frequency↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Systematic Review on Coordinated Restoration Strategies for Power Distribution Grids

Power distribution grids are increasingly exposed to High-Impact Low-Probability (HILP) events, which cause widespread disruptions with severe societal and economic impacts. The growing complexity of modern grids, driven by the integration of distributed energy resources and smart grid technologies, has introduced new challenges to effective service restoration. While significant research has explored individual restoration strategies, such as network reconfiguration and microgrid formation, limited attention has been given to methods in which they can be effectively coordinated. Furthermore, the absence of systematic review papers addressing this issue hampers the development of cohesive restoration frameworks capable of addressing the operational complexities of modern grids. This paper presents a systematic review synthesizing existing knowledge on power grid restoration, identifying key limitations, and highlighting opportunities for coordinated strategies. By addressing research gaps and emphasizing the integration of diverse approaches, this study provides critical insights for advancing grid resiliency and recovery, offering a foundation for future research and practical applications in the face of HILP events.

Systematic review↗
NASA NTRS1983

Range reference atmosphere models

A description is given of the methods used to establish the statistical parameters and models for wind and various thermodynamic quantities at an altitude of 0-70 km for nine geographical locations. It is noted that wind is modeled as a vector quantity using the bivariate normal probability function. With the five parameters of the bivariate normal distribution, the distribution for wind speed is derived as a generalized Rayleigh distribution. In addition, the frequency of wind direction is derived, and the conditional distribution of wind speed given the wind direction is derived. It is pointed out that these and other wind models are consistent with the rigorous mathematical properties of the bivariate normal probability theory. The thermodynamic quantities are consistent with the hydrostatic equation and the equation of state for the mean values. With these methods, many statistical relationships can be derived.

Smith, O. E.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The SIMRAND methodology: Theory and application for the simulation of research and development projects

A research and development (R&D) project often involves a number of decisions that must be made concerning which subset of systems or tasks are to be undertaken to achieve the goal of the R&D project. To help in this decision making, SIMRAND (SIMulation of Research ANd Development Projects) is a methodology for the selection of the optimal subset of systems or tasks to be undertaken on an R&D project. Using alternative networks, the SIMRAND methodology models the alternative subsets of systems or tasks under consideration. Each path through an alternative network represents one way of satisfying the project goals. Equations are developed that relate the system or task variables to the measure of reference. Uncertainty is incorporated by treating the variables of the equations probabilistically as random variables, with cumulative distribution functions assessed by technical experts. Analytical techniques of probability theory are used to reduce the complexity of the alternative networks. Cardinal utility functions over the measure of preference are assessed for the decision makers. A run of the SIMRAND Computer I Program combines, in a Monte Carlo simulation model, the network structure, the equations, the cumulative distribution functions, and the utility functions.

Miles, R. F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Bounding the Failure Probability Range of Polynomial Systems Subject to P-box Uncertainties

This paper proposes a reliability analysis framework for systems subject to multiple design requirements that depend polynomially on the uncertainty. Uncertainty is prescribed by probability boxes, also known as p-boxes, whose distribution functions have free or fixed functional forms. An approach based on the Bernstein expansion of polynomials and optimization is proposed. In particular, we search for the elements of a multi-dimensional p-box that minimize (i.e., the best-case) and maximize (i.e., the worst-case) the probability of inner and outer bounding sets of the failure domain. This technique yields intervals that bound the range of failure probabilities. The offset between this bounding interval and the actual failure probability range can be made arbitrarily tight with additional computational effort.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Crystal gazing. Part 2: Implications of advanced in digital data storage technology

During the next 5-10 years it is likely that the bit density available in digital mass storage systems (magnetic tapes, optical and magnetic disks) will be increased to such an extent that it will greatly exceed that of the conventional photographic emulsions like IIIaJ which are used in astronomy. These developments imply that it will soon be advantageous for astronomers to use microdensitometers to completely digitize all photographic plates soon after they are developed. Distribution of digital copies of sky surveys and the contents of plate vaults will probably become feasible within ten years. Copies of other astronomical archieves (e.g., Space Telescope) could also be distributed with the same techniques. The implications for designers of future microdensitometers are: (1) there will be a continuing need for precision digitization of large-format photographic imagery, and (2) that the need for real-time analysis of the output of microdensitometers will decrease.

Wells, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Major and trace element chemistry of separated fragments from a hibonite-bearing Allende inclusion

The major and trace elements of separated fragments and a bulk sample from CG-11, a hibonite-bearing inclusion in the Allende meteorite, were analyzed. Major element abundances were used to determine the minerology of separated fragments. The high degree of correlation between Eu/Sm ratios and Lu/Yb ratios for the samples studied indicates that their rare earth element (REE) distributions are governed by two components. One, Lu-, Eu-rich, is probably hibonite; the other, depleted in these elements, seems to be associated with the secondary alteration phases, grossular, nepheline and anorthite. The REE distribution in CG-11 precludes melting events after formation of the secondary alteration phases, but a melting event involving the primary minerals cannot be excluded. The enrichment of Lu with respect to other measured REE in hibonite can be explained by present REE condensation models. Two Hf-bearing components, most likely hibonite and perovskite, are necessary to account for variations in Sc/Hf ratios in the fragments studied. The lithophile volatiles Na, Mn, Fe, Zn, and probably Cr increase in the same order as the amount of secondary alteration minerals; the volatile siderophile elements Co and Au, however, do not.

Davis, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

On the decoder error probability of linear codes

By using coding and combinatorial techniques, an approximate formula for the weight distribution of decodable words of most linear block codes is evaluated. This formula is then used to give an approximate expression for the decoder error probability P(sub E)(u) of linear block codes, given that an error pattern of weight u has occurred. It is shown that P(sub E)(u) approaches the constant Q as u gets large, where Q is the probability that a completely random error pattern will cause decoder error.

Cheung, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Analysis of in Vitro Evolution Reveals the Underlying Distribution of Catalytic Activity Among Random Sequences

The emergence of catalytic RNA is believed to have been a key event during the origin of life. Understanding how catalytic activity is distributed across random sequences is fundamental to estimating the probability that catalytic sequences would emerge. Here, we analyze the in vitro evolution of triphosphorylating ribozymes and translate their fitnesses into absolute estimates of catalytic activity for hundreds of ribozyme families. The analysis efficiently identified highly active ribozymes and estimated catalytic activity with good accuracy. The evolutionary dynamics follow Fisher’s Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection and a corollary, permitting retrospective inference of the distribution of fitness and activity in the random sequence pool for the first time. The frequency distribution of rate constants appears to be log-normal, with a surprisingly steep dropoff at higher activity, consistent with a mechanism for the emergence of activity as the product of many independent contributions.

Abe Pressman↗
DOE OSTI2021

Short-period Variability in the Globular Cluster NGC 419 and the SMC Field

Delta Scuti (δ Sct) stars have been extensively studied in our Galaxy but far less in extragalactic systems. Here we study the population of δ Sct variables in NGC 419, an intermediate-age globular cluster of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), using g, r, and i Gemini-S/Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph (GMOS) time-series observations. Our goal is to study the role of such variables in the cluster extended main-sequence turnoff (MSTO). We report the discovery of 54 δ Sct stars and three eclipsing binaries in the NGC 419 field. We find only a handful of the δ Sct stars at the MSTO of NGC 419, while the majority are fainter, indicating that the cluster is younger (≲1.2 Gyr) than previously thought. Considering their radial distribution, we identify only six δ Sct stars as probable members of NGC 419, while the 48 remaining are likely δ Sct stars of the SMC field. Cluster δ Sct stars appear close to the red edge of the MSTO, supporting the idea that the extended MSTO has its origin in an age spread. The 48 field δ Sct stars represent the largest detection of δ Sct stars made in the SMC. The period distribution of these newly detected δ Sct stars (0.04 day ≲ P ≲ 0.15 day) is similar to that detected in other systems. The amplitude distribution (0.05 mag ≲ Δr ≲ 0.60 mag) is likely biased because of the lack of low-amplitude stars. We finally use the δ Sct stars to calculate distances using different period–luminosity relations. The average distance moduli obtained are 18.76 ± 0.14 mag for NGC 419 and 18.86 ± 0.11 mag for the SMC field, which agree with previous measurements.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

The evidence of N = 16 shell closure and β -delayed neutron emission from 25 F

We measured the β -delayed neutron emission from 25 F for the first time at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB). Using combined neutron and γ -ray detector systems of the FRIB Decay Station Initiator (FDSi), we observed β -decay transitions populating neutron unbound states between 4.2 and 8 MeV in 25 Ne. The experimental results led to the revision of the β -decay half-life and β -delayed neutron-emission probability of 25 F. The β -decay strength distribution of 25 F extracted from the data agrees with the shell-model predictions using the USDB and SDPF-M effective interactions. This result indicates that the spherical neutron shell gap persists in 25 F and 25 Ne.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the unknown impact of segmentation uncertainty on image-based simulations

Abstract Image-based simulation, the use of 3D images to calculate physical quantities, relies on image segmentation for geometry creation. However, this process introduces image segmentation uncertainty because different segmentation tools (both manual and machine-learning-based) will each produce a unique and valid segmentation. First, we demonstrate that these variations propagate into the physics simulations, compromising the resulting physics quantities. Second, we propose a general framework for rapidly quantifying segmentation uncertainty. Through the creation and sampling of segmentation uncertainty probability maps, we systematically and objectively create uncertainty distributions of the physics quantities. We show that physics quantity uncertainty distributions can follow a Normal distribution, but, in more complicated physics simulations, the resulting uncertainty distribution can be surprisingly nontrivial. We establish that bounding segmentation uncertainty can fail in these nontrivial situations. While our work does not eliminate segmentation uncertainty, it improves simulation credibility by making visible the previously unrecognized segmentation uncertainty plaguing image-based simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convective shells in the interior of Cepheid variable stars: Overshooting models based on hydrodynamic simulations

Context. Because Cepheid variable stars have long been used as a cosmic benchmark for scaling distances in our Galaxy and beyond, the accuracy of stellar evolution models for Cepheids have wide-reaching effects. However, our understanding of the dynamics in the interiors of these physically complex stars is limited. Aims. Our goal is to provide a detailed multi-dimensional picture of hydrodynamic convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of Cepheids. Methods. Using the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), we studied the structure of intermediate-mass stars that cross the instability strip. Then, we performed two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of six stars with the fully compressible Multidimensional Stellar Implicit Code (MUSIC). Our simulations did not model the radial pulsations but focused on the interior structure of this family of stars. We developed and applied a new statistical analysis to examine convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of these stellar simulations. Results. Based on a grid of MESA models, we demonstrated that a common structure for intermediate mass Cepheids includes an interior convective shell as well as a thin outer convective envelope. Using the extreme value theory approach to analyze our MUSIC simulation data, we found that overshooting above the convective shell fills the space between these convectively unstable layers. We developed a new statistical analysis that provides a clearer picture of how overshooting fills this layer; it also allowed us to formulate a detailed comparison between overshooting above and below the convective shell. Our analysis effectively decomposes the overshooting layer into two layers: a weak overshooting layer and a strong overshooting layer. Statistically, this is accomplished by decomposing the strongly non-Gaussian probability density function into a mixture of gamma distributions. Using our mixture model, we showed that the ratio of overshooting lengths above and below the convective shell depends directly on the radial extent of the convective shell as well as its depth in the star. We proposed a new form for the diffusion coefficient that addresses the need for overlapping overshooting layers between convective shells. We introduced the idea of a “super-mixing layer” where overshooting from both the convective shell and the convective envelope results in efficient mixing and could be viewed as merging the two adjacent convective zones.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Semimicroscopic description of isoscalar giant multipole resonances in medium-mass closed-shell nuclei

Main properties of isoscalar giant multipole resonances (up to L=3), including L=0,and 2 overtones, in medium-mass closed-shell nuclei are described within the semimicroscopic particle-hole dispersive optical model. Further, main properties are characterized by the energy-averaged strength distribution, projected (one-body) transition density, and probabilities of direct one-nucleon decay. Calculation results obtained for characteristics of the mentioned resonances in the 48 Ca, 90 Zr, and 132 Sn nuclei are compared with available experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Artificial intelligence models, photos, and data associated with the manuscript “Quantifying Streambed Grain Size, Uncertainty, and Hydrobiogeochemical Parameters Using Machine Learning Model YOLO” (v2)

This data package is associated with the manuscript “Quantifying Streambed Grain Size, Uncertainty, and Hydrobiogeochemical Parameters Using Machine Learning Model YOLO” published in Water Resources Research (Chen et al., 2024). This data package includes the training, validation, testing, and prediction data used by the artificial intelligence (AI) model for automated grain size and hydro-biogeochemistry quantification using streambed photos. The grain size data are extracted for each photo using You Look Only Once (YOLO), a pre-trained object detection model. This data package was originally published in October 2023. It was updated August 2025 (v2; new and modified files). File and folder names were not revised to indicate changes. See the change history section in the readme for more details. Please see flmd.csv for a list of all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. Please see dd.csv for a data dictionary that defines the column headers of .csv files in the data package. This dataset is comprised of one data folder containing (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) readme; and (4) six subfolders. Subfolders 1 to 4 include the training, validation, testing, and prediction data. Subfolder 5_Summary includes the summary results of different combinations of training, validation, testing, and prediction data. Subfolder 6_SupplementalData includes additional data downloaded from public sources (Kaufman et al., 2023a; Kaufman et al., 2023b; Garefalakis et al., 2023; Mair et al., 2024; https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/Geospatial_variables). In total, the data package includes 110 folders and 44,283 files. These files include 9,047 .jpg photos, 1 .png photo, 3 .tif photos; 26,639 photo labels and individual grain sizes and probability from AI (.txt); 8,447 grain size distribution data (.dat); and 126 CSV files for results summary, and 14 required metadata files (.xlsx). The summary CSV files contain 68 columns and approximately 2,200 rows that represent photo names, site locations, recording time, GPS coordinates, grains sizes (D10, D50, D60, and D84), number of grains, and additional hydro-biogeochemical data such as water depth, flow velocity, Manning’s coefficient, friction factor, hydraulic conductivity, permeability, streambed interstitial velocity magnitude, mass transfer rate, and nitrate uptake velocity. The photos were obtained from 75 sites in the Yakima River Basin and the Columbia River shorelines, and other associated data from samples and sensors obtained when the photos were taken are publicly available (Fulton et al. 2022; Grieger et al. 2023). All files are .csv, .txt, .dat, .jpg, or .pdf. We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected some of these data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗