Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Predictive modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,585 records · Page 88
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1983

Potential impact of remote sensing data on sea-state analysis and prediction

The severe North Atlantic storm which damaged the ocean liner Queen Elizabeth 2 (QE2) was studied to assess the impact of remotely sensed marine surface wind data obtained by SEASAT-A, on sea state specifications and forecasts. Alternate representations of the surface wind field in the QE2 storm were produced from the SEASAT enhanced data base, and from operational analyses based upon conventional data. The wind fields were used to drive a high resolution spectral ocean surface wave prediction model. Results show that sea state analyses would have been vastly improved during the period of storm formation and explosive development had remote sensing wind data been available in real time. A modest improvement in operational 12 to 24 hour wave forecasts would have followed automatically from the improved initial state specification made possible by the remote sensing data in both numerical and sea state prediction models. Significantly improved 24 to 48 hour wave forecasts require in addition to remote sensing data, refinement in the numerical and physical aspects of weather prediction models.

Cardone, V. J.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Magnetic Inflation and Stellar Mass. II. On the Radii of Single, Rapidly Rotating, Fully Convective M-Dwarf Stars

Main-sequence, fully convective M dwarfs in eclipsing binaries are observed to be larger than stellar evolutionary models predict by as much as 10%–15%. A proposed explanation for this discrepancy involves effects from strong magnetic fields, induced by rapid rotation via the dynamo process. Although, a handful of single, slowly rotating M dwarfs with radius measurements from interferometry also appear to be larger than models predict, suggesting that rotation or binarity specifically may not be the sole cause of the discrepancy. We test whether single, rapidly rotating, fully convective stars are also larger than expected by measuring their Rsin i distribution. We combine photometric rotation periods from the literature with rotational broadening (vsin i) measurements reported in this work for a sample of 88 rapidly rotating M dwarf stars. Using a Bayesian framework, we find that stellar evolutionary models underestimate the radii by 10%--15%{sub −2.5}{sup +3}, but that at higher masses (0.18 < M < 0.4 M {sub Sun}), the discrepancy is only about 6% and comparable to results from interferometry and eclipsing binaries. At the lowest masses (0.08 < M < 0.18 M {sub Sun}), we find that the discrepancy between observations and theory is 13%–18%, and we argue that the discrepancy is unlikely to be due to effects from age. Furthermore, we find no statistically significant radius discrepancy between our sample and the handful of M dwarfs with interferometric radii. We conclude that neither rotation nor binarity are responsible for the inflated radii of fully convective M dwarfs, and that all fully convective M dwarfs are larger than models predict.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1972

A model for predicting aortic dynamic response to -G sub z impact acceleration.

A steady state dynamic response model for the radial motion of the aorta is developed from in vivo pressure-displacement and nerve stimulation experiments on canines. The model represented by a modified Van der Pol wave motion oscillator closely predicts steady state and perturbed response results. The applicability of the steady state canine aortic model to tailward acting impact forces is studied by means of the perturbed phase plane of the oscillator. The backflow through the aortic arch resulting from a specified acceleration-time profile is computed and an analysis for predicting the forced motion aortic response is presented.

Advani, S. H.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Semi-Empirical Modeling and Prediction of Direct Combustor Noise

Due to turbofan design trends, advances in fan-noise-mitigation techniques, and expected aircraft configuration changes, the impact on overall airport community noise from certain aircraft-propulsion noise sources, such as fan and jet noise, will be reduced at all certification points in the future. The situation with regard to turbofan-core noise is less clear however. Combustor noise in particular—which presently is an important core-noise component, but not dominant from an overall noise perspective—could become more prominent in upcoming high-power-density core designs. Its detailed source structure in the combustor, including the indirect combustor-noise mechanism, and the effects of the propagation path through the engine and exhaust nozzle need to be better understood. This report reviews the current status of modeling and prediction of direct combustor noise. This work is carried out under the NASA Advanced Air Vehicles Program, Advanced Air Transport Technology Project, Aircraft Noise Reduction Subproject.

Turbomachinery Noise↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Two-Stage Physical-Based Model for Predicting Flow Stress of As-cast TiAl Alloy Under Hot Deformation Conditions

The hot deformation behavior of Ti-30Al-4.2Mn-4.5Nb-0.2B alloy was investigated using the isothermal compression experiment at temperatures of 1020-1200 °C and strain rates of 0.001-1 s{sup −1}. The flow stress was sensitive to the deformation parameters like temperature and strain rate, which decreases with the increase in temperature and decrease in strain rates. Based on the true stress-true strain data, a two-stage physical-based model was proposed to describe the flow stress curve of as-cast TiAl alloy during hot deformation process. For establishing the model, at first, the flow curves of dynamic recovery (DRV) were modeled by employing stress-dislocation relation and adjusting dislocation annihilation coefficient Ω. Then, the flow curves of dynamic recrystallization (DRX) were modeled by considering the dynamic softening behavior into Avrami equation. Finally, the flow curves in the entire deformation stages could be described by embedding the predicted data of DRV model (i.e., flow stress before the critical strain) into the predicted data by DRX model (i.e., flow stress after the critical strain). The critical strain for initiation of DRX was determined by the double-differentiation method. To evaluate the applicability and effectiveness of DRX kinetics equation, the DRX curves were calculated and were consistent with the microstructure observation. Comparison between the experimental and predicted data shows that the proposed physical-based model can well forecast the flow stress under a wide working domain.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1994

Modeling the two-point correlation of the vector stream function

A new model for the two-point vector stream function correlation has been developed using tensor invariant arguments and evaluated by the comparison of model predictions with DNS data for incompressible homogeneous turbulent shear flow. This two-point vector stream function model correlation can then be used to calculate the two-point velocity correlation function and other quantities useful in turbulence modeling. The model assumes that the two-point vector stream function correlation can be written in terms of the separation vector and a new tensor function that depends only on the magnitude of the separation vector. The model has a single free model coefficient, which has been chosen by comparison with the DNS data. The relative error of the model predictions of the two-point vector stream function correlation is only a few percent for a broad range of the model coefficient. Predictions of the derivatives of this correlation, which are of interest in turbulence modeling, may not be this accurate.

Oberlack, M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Understanding Heating in Active Region Cores through Machine Learning. I. Numerical Modeling and Predicted Observables

To adequately constrain the frequency of energy deposition in active region cores in the solar corona, systematic comparisons between detailed models and observational data are needed. In this paper, we describe a pipeline for forward modeling active region emission using magnetic field extrapolations and field-aligned hydrodynamic models. We use this pipeline to predict time-dependent emission from active region NOAA 1158 for low-, intermediate-, and high-frequency nanoflares. In each pixel of our predicted multi-wavelength, time-dependent images, we compute two commonly used diagnostics: the emission measure slope and the time lag. We find that signatures of the heating frequency persist in both of these diagnostics. In particular, our results show that the distribution of emission measure slopes narrows and the mean decreases with decreasing heating frequency and that the range of emission measure slopes is consistent with past observational and modeling work. Furthermore, we find that the time lag becomes increasingly spatially coherent with decreasing heating frequency while the distribution of time lags across the whole active region becomes more broad with increasing heating frequency. In a follow-up paper, we train a random forest classifier on these predicted diagnostics and use this model to classify real observations of NOAA 1158 in terms of the underlying heating frequency.

UV radiation↗
DOE OSTI2015

SPATIALLY RESOLVED l-C{sub 3}H{sup +} EMISSION IN THE HORSEHEAD PHOTODISSOCIATION REGION: FURTHER EVIDENCE FOR A TOP-DOWN HYDROCARBON CHEMISTRY

Small hydrocarbons, such as C{sub 2}H, C{sub 3}H, and C{sub 3}H{sub 2} are more abundant in photo-dissociation regions (PDRs) than expected based on gas-phase chemical models. To explore the hydrocarbon chemistry further, we observed a key intermediate species, the hydrocarbon ion l-C{sub 3}H{sup +}, in the Horsehead PDR with the Plateau de Bure Interferometer at high-angular resolution (6″). We compare with previous observations of C{sub 2}H and c-C{sub 3}H{sub 2} at similar angular resolution and new gas-phase chemical model predictions to constrain the dominant formation mechanisms of small hydrocarbons in low-UV flux PDRs. We find that at the peak of the HCO emission (PDR position), the measured l-C{sub 3}H{sup +}, C{sub 2}H, and c-C{sub 3}H{sub 2} abundances are consistent with current gas-phase model predictions. However, in the first PDR layers, at the 7.7 μm polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon band emission peak, which are more exposed to the radiation field and where the density is lower, the C{sub 2}H and c-C{sub 3}H{sub 2} abundances are underestimated by an order of magnitude. At this position, the l-C{sub 3}H{sup +} abundance is also underpredicted by the model but only by a factor of a few. In addition, contrary to the model predictions, l-C{sub 3}H{sup +} peaks further out in the PDR than the other hydrocarbons, C{sub 2}H and c-C{sub 3}H{sub 2}. This cannot be explained by an excitation effect. Current gas-phase photochemical models thus cannot explain the observed abundances of hydrocarbons, in particular, in the first PDR layers. Our observations are consistent with a top-down hydrocarbon chemistry, in which large polyatomic molecules or small carbonaceous grains are photo-destroyed into smaller hydrocarbon molecules/precursors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the properties of Higgs boson production at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV in the H → γγ channel using 139 fb -1 of pp collision data with the ATLAS experiment

Measurements of Higgs boson production cross-sections are carried out in the diphoton decay channel using 139 fb -1 of pp collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV collected by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC. The analysis is based on the definition of 101 distinct signal regions using machine-learning techniques. The inclusive Higgs boson signal strength in the diphoton channel is measured to be $1.04^{+0.10}_{-0.09}$. Cross-sections for gluon-gluon fusion, vector-boson fusion, associated production with a W or Z boson, and top associated production processes are reported. An upper limit of 10 times the Standard Model prediction is set for the associated production process of a Higgs boson with a single top quark, which has a unique sensitivity to the sign of the top quark Yukawa coupling. Higgs boson production is further characterized through measurements of Simplified Template Cross-Sections (STXS). In total, cross-sections of 28 STXS regions are measured. The measured STXS cross-sections are compatible with their Standard Model predictions, with a p-value of 93%. The measurements are also used to set constraints on Higgs boson coupling strengths, as well as on new interactions beyond the Standard Model in an effective field theory approach. No significant deviations from the Standard Model predictions are observed in these measurements, which provide significant sensitivity improvements compared to the previous ATLAS results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Galaxies in X-Ray Selected Clusters and Groups in Dark Energy Survey Data. I. Stellar Mass Growth of Bright Central Galaxies Since z ~ 1.2

Using the science verification data of the Dark Energy Survey for a new sample of 106 X-ray selected clusters and groups, we study the stellar mass growth of bright central galaxies (BCGs) since redshift z ~ 1.2. Compared with the expectation in a semi-analytical model applied to the Millennium Simulation, the observed BCGs become under-massive/under-luminous with decreasing redshift. Here, we incorporate the uncertainties associated with cluster mass, redshift, and BCG stellar mass measurements into an analysis of a redshift-dependent BCG-cluster mass relation, $m_*$ $∝ \huge{(}$$\frac{M_{200}}{1.5x10^{14}M_⊙}\huge{)}$$^{0.24±0.08}$ $(1 + z)$$^{-0.19±0.34}$, and compare the observed relation to the model prediction. We estimate the average growth rate since z = 1.0 for BCGs hosted by clusters of M 200,z = 10 13.8 M ⊙ ; at z = 1.0: m * , BCG appears to have grown by 0.13 ± 0.11 dex, in tension at the ~2.5σ significance level with the 0.40 dex growth rate expected from the semi-analytic model. We show that the build-up of extended intracluster light after z = 1.0 may alleviate this tension in BCG growth rates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Bottom-up coarse-grained models with predictive accuracy and transferability for both structural and thermodynamic properties of heptane-toluene mixtures

This work investigates the promise of a “bottom-up” extended ensemble framework for developing coarse-grained (CG) models that provide predictive accuracy and transferability for describing both structural and thermodynamic properties. We employ a force-matching variational principle to determine system-independent, i.e., transferable, interaction potentials that optimally model the interactions in five distinct heptane-toluene mixtures. Similarly, we employ a self-consistent pressure-matching approach to determine a system-specific pressure correction for each mixture. The resulting CG potentials accurately reproduce the site-site rdfs, the volume fluctuations, and the pressure equations of state that are determined by all-atom (AA) models for the five mixtures. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these CG potentials provide similar accuracy for additional heptane-toluene mixtures that were not included their parameterization. Surprisingly, the extended ensemble approach improves not only the transferability but also the accuracy of the calculated potentials. Additionally, we observe that the required pressure corrections strongly correlate with the intermolecular cohesion of the system-specific CG potentials. Moreover, this cohesion correlates with the relative “structure” within the corresponding mapped AA ensemble. Finally, the appendix demonstrates that the self-consistent pressure-matching approach corresponds to minimizing an appropriate relative entropy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2016

The EST Model for Predicting Progressive Damage and Failure of Open Hole Bending Specimens

Progressive damage and failure in open hole composite laminate coupons subjected to flexural loading is modeled using Enhanced Schapery Theory (EST). Previous studies have demonstrated that EST can accurately predict the strength of open hole coupons under remote tensile and compressive loading states. This homogenized modeling approach uses single composite shell elements to represent the entire laminate in the thickness direction and significantly reduces computational cost. Therefore, when delaminations are not of concern or are active in the post-peak regime, the version of EST presented here is a good engineering tool for predicting deformation response. Standard coupon level tests provides all the input data needed for the model and they are interpreted in conjunction with finite element (FE) based simulations. Open hole bending test results of three different IM7/8552 carbon fiber composite layups agree well with EST predictions. The model is able to accurately capture the curvature change and deformation localization in the specimen at and during the post catastrophic load drop event.

damage↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards a Deeper Fundamental Understanding of (Al,Sc)N Ferroelectric Nitrides

Density functional theory (DFT) calculations, within the virtual crystal alloy approximation, are performed, along with the development of a Landau-type model employing a symmetry-allowed analytical expression of the internal energy and having parameters determined from first principles, to investigate properties and energetics of Al1-xScxN ferroelectric nitrides in their hexagonal forms. These DFT computations and this model predict the existence of two different types of minima, namely, the fourfold-coordinated wurtzite (WZ) polar structure and a five-fold coordinated paraelectric hexagonal phase (denoted as H5), for any Sc composition up to 40%. The H5 minimum progressively becomes the lowest-energy state within hexagonal symmetry as the Sc concentration increases from 0 to 0.4. Furthermore, the model points to several key findings. Examples include the crucial role of the coupling between polarization and strains to create the WZ minimum, in addition to polar and elastic energies, and that the origin of the H5 state overcoming the WZ phase as the global minimum within hexagonal symmetry when increasing the Sc composition mostly lies in the compositional dependency of only two parameters-one linked to the polarization and another one being purely elastic in nature. Other examples are that forcing Al1-xScxN systems to have no or a weak change in lattice parameters when heating them allows us to reproduce their finite-temperature polar properties well and that a value of the axial ratio close to that of the ideal WZ structure implies a large polarization at low temperatures but not necessarily at high temperatures because of the ordered-disordered character of the temperature-induced formation of the WZ state. Such findings should allow for a better fundamental understanding of (Al,Sc)N ferroelectric nitrides, which may be used to design efficient devices having, e.g., low operating voltages.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning

Building thermal load prediction informs the optimization of cooling plant and thermal energy storage. Physics-based prediction models of building thermal load are constrained by the model and input complexity. In this study, we developed 12 data-driven models (7 shallow learning, 2 deep learning, and 3 heuristic methods) to predict building thermal load and compared shallow machine learning and deep learning. The 12 prediction models were compared with the measured cooling demand. It was found XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boost) and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) provided the most accurate load prediction in the shallow and deep learning category, and both outperformed the best baseline model, which uses the previous day's data for prediction. Then, we discussed how the prediction horizon and input uncertainty would influence the load prediction accuracy. Major conclusions are twofold: first, LSTM performs well in short-term prediction (1 h ahead) but not in long term prediction (24 h ahead), because the sequential information becomes less relevant and accordingly not so useful when the prediction horizon is long. Second, the presence of weather forecast uncertainty deteriorates XGBoost's accuracy and favors LSTM, because the sequential information makes the model more robust to input uncertainty. Training the model with the uncertain rather than accurate weather data could enhance the model's robustness. Finally, our findings have two implications for practice. First, LSTM is recommended for short-term load prediction given that weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable. Second, XGBoost is recommended for long term prediction, and the model should be trained with the presence of input uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2017

Validation Assessment of a Glass-to-Metal Seal Finite-Element Model

Sealing glasses are ubiquitous in high pressure and temperature engineering applications, such as hermetic feed-through electrical connectors. A common connector technology are glass-to-metal seals where a metal shell compresses a sealing glass to create a hermetic seal. Though finite-element analysis has been used to understand and design glass-to-metal seals for many years, there has been little validation of these models. An indentation technique was employed to measure the residual stress on the surface of a simple glass-to-metal seal. Recently developed rate- dependent material models of both Schott 8061 and 304L VAR stainless steel have been applied to a finite-element model of the simple glass-to-metal seal. Model predictions of residual stress based on the evolution of material models are shown. These model predictions are compared to measured data. Validity of the finite- element predictions is discussed. It will be shown that the finite-element model of the glass-to-metal seal accurately predicts the mean residual stress in the glass near the glass-to-metal interface and is valid for this quantity of interest.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

A semi-empirical NO x model for LES in pulverized coal air-staged combustion

Numerical simulation of pulverized coal combustion with the large eddy simulation (LES) method can provides important instructions on the design optimization of boilers. Because of its huge computational cost, a simple but reliable NO x prediction model is required in LES. Through the air-staged combustion experiments of six kinds of coals which conducted in an electric heated down-fired furnace (DFF), the relationship between NO x reduction and CO+H 2 generation in the fuel-rich zone was identified. Based on this observation, a semi-empirical modeling strategy was proposed: instead of CHi which is difficult to calculate, the concentration of CO+H 2 is used to quantify NO homogeneous reduction. An integrated NO x prediction model was proposed and implemented into LES simulation. Here, the results proved the new model can accurately predict different NO x evolution characteristics under various conditions. Furthermore, the comparison indicated the LES method performs better on NO x prediction than the RANS method, especially in the area where the turbulent fluctuation is relatively stronger.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven enhancement of coherent structure-based models for predicting instantaneous wall turbulence

Predictions of the spatial representation of instantaneous wall-bounded flows, via coherent structure-based models, are highly sensitive to the geometry of the representative structures employed by them. In this study, we propose a methodology to extract the three-dimensional (3-D) geometry of the statistically significant eddies from multi-point wall-turbulence datasets, for direct implementation into these models to improve their predictions. The methodology is employed here for reconstructing a 3-D statistical picture of the inertial wall coherent turbulence for all canonical wall-bounded flows, across a decade of friction Reynolds number (Re T ). These structures are responsible for the Re T -dependence of the skin-friction drag and also facilitate the inner-outer interactions, making them key targets of structure-based models. The empirical analysis brings out the geometric self-similarity of the large-scale wall-coherent motions and also suggests the hairpin packet as the representative flow structure for all wall-bounded flows, thereby aligning with the framework on which the attached eddy model (AEM) is based. The same framework is extended here to also model the very-large-scaled motions, with a consideration of their differences in internal versus external flows. Implementation of the empirically-obtained geometric scalings for these large structures into the AEM is shown to enhance the instantaneous flow predictions for all three velocity components. Finally, an active flow control system driven by the same geometric scalings is conceptualized, towards favourably altering the influence of the wall coherent motions on the skin-friction drag.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Coupling of organic and inorganic aerosol systems and the effect on gas&ndash;particle partitioning in the southeastern US

Abstract. Several models were used to describe the partitioning of ammonia, water, and organic compounds between the gas and particle phases for conditions in the southeastern US during summer 2013. Existing equilibrium models and frameworks were found to be sufficient, although additional improvements in terms of estimating pure-species vapor pressures are needed. Thermodynamic model predictions were consistent, to first order, with a molar ratio of ammonium to sulfate of approximately 1.6 to 1.8 (ratio of ammonium to 2 × sulfate, R N/2S ≈ 0.8 to 0.9) with approximately 70 % of total ammonia and ammonium (NH x ) in the particle. Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization Network (SEARCH) gas and aerosol and Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS) Monitor for AeRosols and Gases in Ambient air (MARGA) aerosol measurements were consistent with these conditions. CMAQv5.2 regional chemical transport model predictions did not reflect these conditions due to a factor of 3 overestimate of the nonvolatile cations. In addition, gas-phase ammonia was overestimated in the CMAQ model leading to an even lower fraction of total ammonia in the particle. Chemical Speciation Network (CSN) and aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) measurements indicated less ammonium per sulfate than SEARCH and MARGA measurements and were inconsistent with thermodynamic model predictions. Organic compounds were predicted to be present to some extent in the same phase as inorganic constituents, modifying their activity and resulting in a decrease in [H + ] air (H + in µg m -3 air), increase in ammonia partitioning to the gas phase, and increase in pH compared to complete organic vs. inorganic liquid&ndash;liquid phase separation. In addition, accounting for nonideal mixing modified the pH such that a fully interactive inorganic&ndash;organic system had a pH roughly 0.7 units higher than predicted using traditional methods (pH = 1.5 vs. 0.7). Particle-phase interactions of organic and inorganic compounds were found to increase partitioning towards the particle phase (vs. gas phase) for highly oxygenated (O : C ≥ 0.6) compounds including several isoprene-derived tracers as well as levoglucosan but decrease particle-phase partitioning for low O : C, monoterpene-derived species.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗