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At least 1,585 records · Page 88
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainties in tellurium-based dark matter searches stemming from nuclear structure uncertainties

Using tellurium dioxide as a target, we calculate uncertainties on 90% upper confidence limits of Galilean effective field theory (Galilean EFT) couplings to a weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) dark matter candidate due to uncertainties in nuclear shell models. We find that these uncertainties in naturally occurring tellurium isotopes are comparable across the different Galilean EFT couplings to uncertainties in xenon, with some reaching over 100%. We also consider the effect these nuclear uncertainties have on estimates of the annual modulation of dark matter from these searches, finding that the uncertainties in the modulation amplitude are proportional to the nonmodulating upper confidence limit uncertainties. We also show that the determination of the modulation phase is insensitive to changes in the nuclear model for a given isotope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thermodynamic modeling of the Pd–Zn system with uncertainty quantification and its implication to tailor catalysts

Pd–Zn intermetallic catalysts show encouraging combinations of activity and selectivity on well-defined active site ensembles. Thermodynamic description of the Pd–Zn system, delineating phase boundaries and enumerating site occupancies within intermediate alloy phases, is essential to determining the ensembles of Pd–Zn atoms as a function of composition and temperature. Combining the present extensive first-principles calculations based on density functional theory (DFT) and available experimental data, the Pd–Zn system was remodeled using the CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD) approach. High throughput modeling tools with uncertainty quantification, i.e., ESPEI and PyCalphad, were incorporated in the phase analysis. Here, the site occupancies across the γ phase composition region were given special attention. A four-sublattice model was used for the γ phase owing to its four Wyckoff positions, i.e., the outer tetrahedral (OT) site 8c, the inner tetrahedral (IT) site 8c, the octahedral (OH) site 12e, and the cuboctahedral (CO) site 24g. The site fractions of Pd and Zn calculated from the present thermodynamic model show the occupancy preference of Pd in the OT and OH sublattices in agreement with experimental observations. The force constants obtained from DFT-based phonon calculations further supports the tendency of Pd occupying the OH sublattice compared with the IT and CO sublattice. The catalytic ensembles changing from Pd monomers (Pd 1 ) to trimers (Pd 3 ) on the surface of γ phase are attributed to the increase of Pd occupancy in the OH sublattice.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2018

Overview of Large-scale Tropospheric Transport in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) Simulations

The transport of chemicals is a major uncertainty in the modeling of tropospheric composition. Here we compare the large-scale tropospheric transport properties among different models in the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI) with a focus on transport defined with respect to the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface. Among simulations of the recent past (1980-2010) we show that there are substantial differences in their global-scale tropospheric transport properties. For example, the mean transit time since southern hemisphere air last contacted the NH midlatitude surface differs by ~30-40% among simulations. We show that these differences are most likely associated with differences in parameterized convection over the oceans, such that the spread in transport among simulations constrained with analysis fields is as large as the spread among free-running simulations.

large-scale tropospheric transport↗
DOE OSTI2024

Equipping Neural Network Surrogates with Uncertainty for Propagation in Physical Systems

Coarse-grained or filtered models typically rely on closure models to account for unresolved scales. For instance, large eddy simulation for modeling turbulent fluid flows explicitly resolves the largest scales, but requires modeling closure terms to account for the sub-filter scales. With the vast amount of data available from high-fidelity simulations, there are unique opportunities to leverage data-driven modeling techniques to formulate expressive and flexible closure models. Despite their flexibility, data-driven models struggle in domain shift settings, i.e. when deployed in configurations not captured in the training dataset. In particular, the efficacy of neural network surrogates is difficult to assess a priori due to the deterministic, point-estimate nature of predictions. In high-consequence applications, such models require reliable uncertainty estimates in the data-informed and out-of-distribution regimes. To quantify uncertainties in both regimes, we employ Bayesian neural networks which are able to capture both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. We will discuss challenges associated with the training and evaluation of these networks. Furthermore, we will discuss uncertainty embedding strategies to enable efficient sampling and propagation of uncertainty through high-fidelity simulations.

Bayesian neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field Measurement and Analysis of Frequency and RoCoF for Low-Inertia Power Systems

The frequency measurement and rate of change of frequency (RoCoF) calculations are important for active power, frequency control, and frequency-related protection in power system operations. With the rapid decrease in inertia under modern power systems, however, multiple power variations introduced by variable renewable energy bring large RoCoF and introduce oscillations in frequency measurements. To shed light on this issue, this article proposes a frequency measurement and RoCoF analysis technology, as well as the sensitivity analysis for the real low-inertia power grid. First, a real-world event in an island power grid is analyzed as an example, and an event numerical model is estimated considering four uncertainties, including event RoCoF, oscillation magnitude, oscillation frequency, and underfrequency load-shedding threshold. Then, a sensitivity analysis is performed using the Sobol indices method and quasi-Monte Carlo simulations to identify the dominant uncertainties based on the event model. Here, the dominant uncertainties are compared to provide a guideline for the frequency estimation algorithm selection under different event cases. This algorithm is compared with an enhanced zero-crossing algorithm and gives a 3.41% better RoCoF error rate. Finally, an experiment is conducted using universal grid analyzers to validate the simulation results and the theoretical analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Verification and Validation Activities for the Multi-Fidelity Toolkit

The Multi-Fidelity Toolkit (MFTK) is a simulation tool being developed at Sandia National Laboratories for aerodynamic predictions of compressible flows over a range of physics fidelities and computational speeds. These models include the Reynolds-Averaged-Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations, the Euler equations, and modified Newtonian aerodynamics (MNA) equations, and they can be invoked independently or coupled with hierarchical Kriging to interpolate between high-fidelity simulations using lower-fidelity data. However, as with any new simulation capability, verification and validation are necessary to gather credibility evidence. This work describes formal code- and solution-verification activities as well as model validation with uncertainty considerations. Code verification is performed on the MNA model by comparing with an analytical solution for flat-plate and inclined-plate geometries. Solution-verification activities include grid-refinement studies of HIFiRE-1 wind tunnel measurements, which are used for validation, for all model fidelities. A thorough treatment of the validation comparison with prediction error and validation uncertainty is also presented.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active learning of a crystal plasticity flow rule from discrete dislocation dynamics simulations

Continuum-scale material deformation models, such as crystal plasticity (CP), can significantly enhance their predictive accuracy by incorporating input from lower-scale (i.e. mesoscale) models. The procedure to generate and extract the relevant information is however typically complex and ad hoc, involving decision and intervention by domain experts, leading to long development times. In this study, we develop a principled approach for calibration of continuum-scale models using lower scale information by representing a CP flow rule as a Gaussian process model. This representation allows for efficient parameter space exploration, guided by the uncertainty embedded in the model through a process known as Bayesian optimization (BO). We demonstrate a semi-autonomous BO loop which instantiates discrete dislocation dynamics simulations whose initial conditions are automatically chosen to optimize the uncertainty of a model CP flow rule. Our self-guided computational pipeline efficiently generated a dataset and corresponding model whose error, uncertainty, and physical feature sensitivities were validated with comparison to an independent dataset four times larger, demonstrating a valuable and efficient active learning implementation readily transferable to similar material systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1992

Desensitizing structural-control design

A new method for targeted robustness optimization is presented. This method allows the analyst to 'target' the most critical performance parameter (or family of design requirements with almost the same criticality) for enhanced protection from uncertainties in the model. To create this protection, this method uses knowledge about the uncertainties in some of the parameters of the model - this information is usually available to the structural analyst. The power of the targeted robustness method is demonstrated numerically using an active damping example. The results show that the most critical damping ratio is protected - its sensitivity to the uncertainties is far below those of non-critical damping ratios.

Ponslet, E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Influence of data uncertainty on cold season threshold-based climate indices

Climate indices are used to reduce the complex climate system and its changes to simple measures. The data basis – whether observational data or climate model data – to which the climate indices are applied, is usually subject to uncertainties. For threshold-based climate indices, the data uncertainty influences the threshold value, and, hence, the uncertainty can influence the values for the climate index. What the actual impacts of these uncertainties are on threshold-based climate indices is examined in this paper. The focus is not only on the climate model uncertainty, but also on the observational data uncertainty. The general sensitivity of each of the chosen climate indices to arbitrary changes in the threshold is studied. This shows a higher sensitivity of indices assessing extremes (ice days, heavy precipitation days) to changes in the threshold than indices that integrate a quantity over a given time interval (coldsum, consecutive days). For assessing an ensemble of climate model data with respect to their ability to reproduce the index values for current climate, the reference data uncertainty is applied to the chosen threshold-based climate indices by changing their threshold value by its corresponding uncertainty. It is shown that the climate model uncertainty can be within the range of the reference data uncertainty. When using threshold-based climate indices to assess changes in future climate periods, uncertainties should always be taken into account and ideally corrected in an appropriate way. This is especially important for indices that assess extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

Quantifying Uncertainty in Projections of Stratospheric Ozone Over the 21st Century

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an ensemble of opportunity of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for 10 ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21 st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations 15 return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.

Charlton-Perez, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Uncertainty Quantification of GEOS-5 L-band Radiative Transfer Model Parameters Using Bayesian Inference and SMOS Observations

Uncertainties in L-band (1.4 GHz) radiative transfer modeling (RTM) affect the simulation of brightness temperatures (Tb) over land and the inversion of satellite-observed Tb into soil moisture retrievals. In particular, accurate estimates of the microwave soil roughness, vegetation opacity and scattering albedo for large-scale applications are difficult to obtain from field studies and often lack an uncertainty estimate. Here, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method is used to determine satellite-scale estimates of RTM parameters and their posterior uncertainty by minimizing the misfit between long-term averages and standard deviations of simulated and observed Tb at a range of incidence angles, at horizontal and vertical polarization, and for morning and evening overpasses. Tb simulations are generated with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) and confronted with Tb observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. The MCMC algorithm suggests that the relative uncertainty of the RTM parameter estimates is typically less than 25 of the maximum a posteriori density (MAP) parameter value. Furthermore, the actual root-mean-square-differences in long-term Tb averages and standard deviations are found consistent with the respective estimated total simulation and observation error standard deviations of m3.1K and s2.4K. It is also shown that the MAP parameter values estimated through MCMC simulation are in close agreement with those obtained with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO).

MCMC↗
NASA NTRS1998

Prediction of Natural Frequency and Buckling Load Variability due to Uncertainty in Material Properties by Convex Modeling

Composite materials are widely used in various types of engineering structures. To a large extent, the properties of composite materials are dependent on the fabrication process. But even the composite materials manufactured by the same process may demonstrate differences in their elastic properties. For design purposes, one should be aware of the potential variations in load-carrying capacity and dynamic behavior of such structures that can arise due to the uncertainty in elastic moduli. A more realistic analysis of composite structures should be performed with the variations of the elastic moduli being taken into consideration at the same time. The present paper is a generalization of a study where the influence of uncertainty in elastic moduli on the axial buckling load was discussed. Here, we consider another case of buckling, shells under uniform external pressure. In addition, this paper deals with the variability of natural frequencies by use of convex modeling, which is apparently the first study of this kind in the literature. A numerical approach to the uncertainty problem is nonlinear programming, which we apply to solve the same problem to generate a set of comparable numerical data. The results from both methods show good agreement throughout. Thus, the effectiveness of the analytic convex modeling is clearly demonstrated. The bounds of he natural frequency and the buckling load provide the designer with a better view of the vibrational behavior and the actual load carrying capacities possessed by the composite structure.

Li, Y. W.↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the quantification and efficient propagation of imprecise probabilities with copula dependence

This paper addresses the problem of quantification and propagation of uncertainties associated with dependence modeling when data for characterizing probability models are limited. Practically, the system inputs are often assumed to be mutually independent or correlated by a multivariate Gaussian distribution. However, this subjective assumption may introduce bias in the response estimate if the real dependence structure deviates from this assumption. In this work, we overcome this limitation by introducing a flexible copula dependence model to capture complex dependencies. Here, a hierarchical Bayesian multimodel approach is proposed to quantify uncertainty in dependence model-form and model parameters that result from small data sets. This approach begins by identifying, through Bayesian multimodel inference, a set of candidate marginal models and their corresponding model probabilities, and then estimating the uncertainty in the copula-based dependence structure, which is conditional on the marginals and their parameters. The overall uncertainties integrating marginals and copulas are probabilistically represented by an ensemble of multivariate candidate densities. A novel importance sampling reweighting approach is proposed to efficiently propagate the overall uncertainties through a computational model. Through an example studying the influence of constituent properties on the out-of-plane properties of transversely isotropic E-glass fiber composites, we show that the composite property with copula-based dependence model converges to the true estimate as data set size increases, while an independence or arbitrary Gaussian correlation assumption leads to a biased estimate.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model validation and selection in metabolic flux analysis and flux balance analysis

13C-Metabolic Flux Analysis (13C-MFA) and Flux Balance Analysis (FBA) are widely used to investigate the operation of biochemical networks in both biological and biotechnological research. Both methods use metabolic reaction network models of metabolism operating at steady state so that reaction rates (fluxes) and the levels of metabolic intermediates are constrained to be invariant. They provide estimated (MFA) or predicted (FBA) values of the fluxes through the network in vivo, which cannot be measured directly. These fluxes can shed light on basic biology and have been successfully used to inform metabolic engineering strategies. Several approaches have been taken to test the reliability of estimates and predictions from constraint-based methods and to compare alternative model architectures. Despite advances in other areas of the statistical evaluation of metabolic models, such as the quantification of flux estimate uncertainty, validation and model selection methods have been underappreciated and underexplored. We review the history and state-of-the-art in constraint-based metabolic model validation and model selection. Applications and limitations of the χ 2 -test of goodness-of-fit, the most widely used quantitative validation and selection approach in 13C-MFA, are discussed, and complementary and alternative forms of validation and selection are proposed. A combined model validation and selection framework for 13C-MFA incorporating metabolite pool size information that leverages new developments in the field is presented and advocated for. Finally, we discuss how adopting robust validation and selection procedures can enhance confidence in constraint-based modeling as a whole and ultimately facilitate more widespread use of FBA in biotechnology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric Structure Prediction for Infrasound Propagation Modeling Using Deep Learning

Abstract Infrasound is generated by a variety of natural and anthropogenic sources. Infrasonic waves travel through the dynamic atmosphere, which can change on the order of minutes to hours. Infrasound propagation largely depends on the wind and temperature structure of the atmosphere. Numerical weather prediction models are available to provide atmospheric specifications, but uncertainties in these models exist and they are computationally expensive to run. Machine learning has proven useful in predicting tropospheric weather using Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) networks. An LSTM network is utilized to make atmospheric specification predictions up to ∼30 km for three different training and testing scenarios: (a) the model is trained and tested using only radiosonde data from the Albuquerque, NM, USA station, (b) the model is trained on radiosonde stations across the contiguous US, excluding the Albuquerque, NM, USA station, which was reserved for testing, and (c) the model is trained and tested on radiosonde stations across the contiguous US. Long Short‐Term Memory predictions are compared to a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis model and show cases where the LSTM outperforms, performs equally as well, or underperforms in comparison to the state‐of‐the‐art. Regional and temporal trends in model performance across the US are also discussed. Results suggest that the LSTM model is a viable tool for predicting atmospheric specifications for infrasound propagation modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of molecular convergent close-coupling cross sections in a collisional radiative model for the triplet system of molecular hydrogen

Collisional radiative (CR) models for molecular hydrogen are of high relevance for performing qualitative and quantitative analysis of excited-state population densities measured in plasmas or predicting the dependence of plasma emission on parameter variations. Although the development of such models for H 2 started decades ago, major uncertainties still exist regarding the most important set of input parameters, namely the cross sections for electron-impact excitation. The deviations between cross sections from different datasets are particularly pronounced in the energy region close to the threshold energy, strongly increasing the uncertainty of CR models applied to low-temperature plasmas. This paper presents experimental validation of a set of newly calculated non ro-vibrationally resolved electron-impact cross sections calculated for the triplet system of H 2 using the molecular convergent close-coupling method in the adiabatic-nuclei formulation. These cross sections are implemented into a CR model based on the flexible solver Yacora. A first comparison of CR calculations with the different datasets to experimentally-determined population densities is performed at a planar ICP discharge for varying pressure (between 1 and 10 Pa) and RF power (between 700 and 1100 W). For the experimentally-accessible electron temperature and density range (2.5–10 eV and 1.8–3.3 × 10 16 m –3 , respectively), very good agreement between the model and experiment is obtained using the new data set, in contrast to previously used cross sections.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Semi-automated Design of Artificial Intelligence Earth Systems Models

Prediction and observation of water cycles at various scales involve not only patterns isolated in space and time, but also modeling of complex spatio-temporal relationships across multiple domains. For instance, evapotranspiration (ET) and leaf area indexes (LAI) are two parameters that are needed to accurately model and understand land-atmosphere processes. Accurate assessments of ET and LAI are critical for understanding hydrological processes, deforestation, crop yield, and irrigation impacts. However, ET estimates for global simulations are available at very coarse spatial resolution. They are usually derived from satellite data based on broad plant functional types (PFTs), which fail to capture fine-scale variations because of changes in vegetation type across the globe. Similarly LAI estimates have typically been derived from vegetation indices at global scales or estimated locally using physical models, both of which suffer from a range of uncertainties that impact model sensitivity. The new era of AI model development for Earth systems (ES) calls for data-driven methods that provide domain scientists with uncertainty-aware estimations of biophysical parameters such as ET and LAI in a generalizable, interpretable, and discoverable manner.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

Interiors of the giant planets - Recent advances

It is shown that new experimental evidence that the molecular to metallic transition in hydrogen takes place near 2 Mb rather than 3 Mb affects only slightly the current models of Jupiter but a more radical change has to be noted for the model of Saturn. Magnetic field and luminosity data indicate that in this planet the metallic H-He layer is actually split into an inhomogeneous upper layer and an He-rich lower layer. The recent three-layer model of Uranus accounts better for various observational constraints than the previous models despite the uncertainty about the planet's rotation period. The models of the interior of Neptune are still rather uncertain.

Smoluchowski, R.↗