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At least 1,585 records · Page 88

Integrating NASA Earth Science Capabilities into the Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center for Improvements in Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modeling

This report describes the development of algorithms to derive accurate surface roughness and displacement height values from NASA satellite data for both urban and vegetation environments and to evaluate the potential benefit of improved surface data characterization on atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling. One of the key factors limiting the accuracy of near-surface wind profile modeling and dispersion simulations is the lack of location-specific and seasonally-dependent surface characteristic values. Currently, land use category look-up tables are commonly used to provide grid-cell estimates of surface characteristics values, even though surface roughness values can vary significantly within the same land-use category. This report documents: i) the derivation of surface characteristic values by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and Stennis Space Center (SSC) from NASA satellite multispectral imagery, ii) their incorporation into atmospheric meteorological and transport models, and iii) the results of a dispersion modeling study for Oklahoma City and the surrounding region to evaluate the impact of GSFC/SSC roughness on National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) / Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center (IMAAC) emergency response dispersion predictions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Climate-Weather Modeling Studies Using a Prototype Global Cloud-System Resolving Model: ALCF-2 Early Science Program

Clouds remain the largest source of uncertainty in our understanding of global climate change. Different aspects of the planetary cloud field can provide positive and negative feedback to the Earth’s energy balance, and clouds of course are directly implicated in changes to the planetary distribution of precipitation. A fundamental problem in our current understanding of the role of clouds in the dynamics of climate are that current resolutions do not resolve the fundamental length scales associated with clouds. We expect our understanding of the role of clouds in climate to undergo a qualitative change as the resolutions of global models begin to encompass clouds. At these resolutions (which roughly scale with the tropopause height of 10km) non-hydrostatic dynamics become significant and deep convective processes are resolved. We are poised at the threshold of being able to run global scale simulations that include direct, nonparameterized, simulations of deep convective clouds. The goal of this research is to use the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility to explore the frontier of weather prediction and climate modeling with the newly developed Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (GFDL) global cloud-resolving model. A single unified atmospheric modeling system with a cubed-sphere dynamical core and bulk cloud micro-physics running at 3.5km resolutions was run with the goal of capturing the climatology of clouds and severe storms in a warming world. The ability to reproduce historical tropical storm statistics will be used as a test of this ground-breaking model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic Metabolic Model Building Based on the Ensemble Modeling Approach

Ensemble modeling of kinetic systems addresses the challenges of kinetic model construction, with respect to parameter value selection, and still allows for the rich insights possible from kinetic models. This project aimed to show that constructing, implementing, and analyzing such models is a useful tool for the metabolic engineering toolkit, and that they can result in actionable insights from models. Key concepts are developed and deliverable publications and results are presented.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Model complexity and choice of model approaches for practical simulations of CO 2 injection, migration, leakage and long-term fate

This report documents the accomplishments achieved during the project titled “Model complexity and choice of model approaches for practical simulations of CO 2 injection,migration, leakage and long-term fate” funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy. The objective of the project was to investigate modeling approaches of various levels of complexity relevant to geologic carbon storage (GCS) modeling with the goal to establish guidelines on choice of modeling approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Accident Tolerant Fuels High Impact Problem: Coordinate Multiscale U 3 Si 2 Modeling

Since the events at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant in March 2011 significant research has unfolded at national laboratories, universities and other institutions into alternative materials that have potential enhanced accident tolerance when compared to traditional \uo~fuel zircaloy clad fuel rods. One of the potential replacement fuels is uranium silicide (\usi) for its higher thermal conductivity and uranium density. The lower melting temperature is of potential concern during postulated accident conditions. Another disadvantage for \usi~ is the lack of experimental data under power reactor conditions. Due to the aggressive development schedule for inserting some of the potential materials into lead test assemblies or rods by 2022~\cite{bragg-sitton_2014} multiscale multiphysics modeling approaches have been used to provide insight into these materials. \\ \noindent The purpose of this letter report is to highlight the multiscale modeling effort for \usi~fuel as part of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) High Impact Problem (HIP). This fiscal year two new models for \usi~fuel have been incorporated into the BISON fuel performance code~\cite{Williamson2012} based upon lower length scale simulations using the GRASS-SST rate theory code. The models are briefly described in the following sections.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Model comparisons of the reactive burn model SURF in three ASC codes

A study of the SURF reactive burn model was performed in FLAG, PAGOSA and XRAGE. In this study, three different shock-to-detonation transition experiments were modeled in each code. All three codes produced similar model results for all the experiments modeled and at all resolutions. Buildup-to-detonation time, particle velocities and resolution dependence of the models was notably similar between the codes. Given the current PBX 9502 equations of state and SURF calibrations, each code is equally capable of predicting the correct detonation time and distance when impacted by a 1D impactor at pressures ranging from 10-16 GPa, as long as the resolution of the mesh is not too coarse.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Application of Bayesian Model Selection for Metal Yield Models using ALEGRA and Dakota

This report introduces the concepts of Bayesian model selection, which provides a systematic means of calibrating and selecting an optimal model to represent a phenomenon. This has many potential applications, including for comparing constitutive models. The ideas described herein are applied to a model selection problem between different yield models for hardened steel under extreme loading conditions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A modular biogeochemical modeling suite for next-generation ocean models (Final Report)

The Marine Biogeochemistry Library (MARBL) is a self-contained implementation of ocean biogeochemistry suitable for incorporation in Earth system models. The default configuration of MARBL represents multiple nutrient co-limitation (N, P, Si, and Fe), includes three explicit phytoplankton functional groups (diatoms, diazotrophs, and pico/nano phytoplankton), and one implicit group (calcifiers); there is one zooplankton group. MARBL includes fully prognostic carbonate chemistry and simulates sinking particulate organic matter implicitly, subject to ballasting by mineral dust, biogenic mineral carbonate and opal. MARBL represents subgrid-scale variations in light, variable C:P stoichiometry, semi-labile and refractory dissolved organic material pools, prognostic oceanic emission of ammonia, and an explicit ligand tracer that complexes iron. MARBL is fully runtime-configurable, and is flexible enough to accommodate a variable number of plankton functional types and ecosystem configurations. Critically, MARBL is implemented to be independent of any particular ocean general circulation model (OGCM); it is a standalone library that interfaces with an OGCM's via an explicit "driver" layer. MARBL can thus be coupled to multiple OGCM's, enabling efficient maintenance, development, and cross-model inter-comparison. MARBL is the ocean biogeochemistry component for the Community Earth System Model and the DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

BISON BWR Fuel Modeling Capability: Material Models (FY2020)

Until this year the BISON fuel performance code has been developed primarily for pressurized water reactor (PWR), accident tolerant fuel (ATF), and advanced reactor (e.g., tri-structural isotropic (TRISO), metallic) analyses. The main focus of this work is to develop and document required material models that would aid predicting cladding failure with a specific hydride distribution to be investigated for boiling water reactor (BWR) applications in the next fiscal year. In terms of materials, the primary differences between a BWR and PWR is the use of gadolinia doping of the UO 2 fuel, the use of Zircaloy-2 for the cladding, and the addition of a liner on the inner surface of the cladding for improved pellet-clad mechanical interaction (PCMI)performance. The liner is typically made of pure zirconium or a lower tin content zirconium alloy (e.g. Zr-0.3%Sn). This work details the development and documentation of material and behavioral models for BWR analysis such as the addition of material and behavior models for gadolinia doped UO 2 , pure zirconium, Zr-0.3%Sn, and Zircaloy-2 as well as the ease-of-use additions to allow internal meshing capabilities to include liners. Another important aspect affecting cladding performance is hydrogen diffusion and hydride precipitation in the cladding. A model was added previously for non-lined, homogeneous claddings. In this work, instructions are provided on how to apply the model to BWR liner cladding. Representative experimental values are provided for the hydrogen diffusion parameters and precipitation-dissolution kinetics for typical liner materials of interest.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

FECM/NETL CO 2 Transport Cost Model (2022): Model Overview [Slides]

The FECM/NETL CO 2 Transport Cost Model (CO 2 _T_COM) is an Excel spreadsheet model that calculates the cost of transporting CO 2 from the beginning to the end of a pipeline. This document provides an overview of the model. This document is intended to provide a user with a briefer description of the model and how to use the model than the user’s manual.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Schwarz Alternating Method for the Seamless Coupling of Nonlinear Reduced Order Models and Full Order Models

Projection-based model order reduction allows for the parsimonious representation of full order models (FOMs), typically obtained through the discretization of a set of partial differential equations (PDEs) using conventional techniques (e.g., finite element, finite volume, finite difference methods) where the discretization may contain a very large number of degrees of freedom. As a result of this more compact representation, the resulting projection-based reduced order models (ROMs) can achieve considerable computational speedups, which are especially useful in real-time or multi-query analyses. One known deficiency of projection-based ROMs is that they can suffer from a lack of robustness, stability and accuracy, especially in the predictive regime, which ultimately limits their useful application. Another research gap that has prevented the widespread adoption of ROMs within the modeling and simulation community is the lack of theoretical and algorithmic foundations necessary for the “plug-and-play” integration of these models into existing multi-scale and multi-physics frameworks. This paper describes a new methodology that has the potential to address both of the aforementioned deficiencies by coupling projection-based ROMs with each other as well as with conventional FOMs by means of the Schwarz alternating method [41]. Leveraging recent work that adapted the Schwarz alternating method to enable consistent and concurrent multiscale coupling of finite element FOMs in solid mechanics [35, 36], we present a new extension of the Schwarz framework that enables FOM-ROM and ROM-ROM coupling, following a domain decomposition of the physical geometry on which a PDE is posed. In order to maintain efficiency and achieve computation speed-ups, we employ hyper-reduction via the Energy-Conserving Sampling and Weighting (ECSW) approach [13]. We evaluate the proposed coupling approach in the reproductive as well as in the predictive regime on a canonical test case that involves the dynamic propagation of a traveling wave in a nonlinear hyper-elastic material.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integrated Model of Models for Global Flood Alerting

A dramatic increase in frequency of minor to major flooding since 2000 has caused significant economic losses across the world. To mitigate and recover from these losses, actions have been taken to build resilient communities and infrastructures, specifically, by providing situational awareness in near real-time about flood impacts to enhance response and recovery efforts. Several hydrologic and hydraulic flood models are available at various spatial and temporal resolutions to forecast flood events at regional to global scale. Given the global coverage of two operational flood models – GloFAS (Global Flood Awareness System) and GFMS (Global Flood Monitoring System), the purpose of this project is to implement a Model of Models (MoM) approach to integrate the outputs from these two models to classify flood severity at watershed level worldwide, and send alerts based on severity similar to the USGS PAGER (used for severity alerting and impact analysis for earthquakes) to flood impacted communities. The alerts containing flood impacts and severity information will be disseminated through the DisasterAWARE platform, operated by the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC), that provides global multi-hazard alerting and Situational Awareness information to the emergency management community and public. The current version of the MoM approach was implemented for a case study flood event that occurred during January and February of 2020 in South and Central Africa. The findings of the case study event reveal that the approach is effective in identifying potential flood impact areas and the spatio-temporal variation of flood severity, flood depth and extent at watershed level, which will be used to assess infrastructure and societal impacts using earth-observation data and for alerting.

Kar, Bandana↗

GPU-accelerated Software Library for Unsteady Flamelet Modeling of Turbulent Combustion with Complex Chemical Kinetics

Modeling and simulation of turbulent combustion are computationally demanding and challenging problems due to the complexity of turbulent flows and the complex chemical reaction kinetics. Recent advances in high performance computing (HPC) has allowed simulations to utilize increasing computer power to obtain newer insights that were not feasible before. The arrival of GPUs and many-core processors is set to revolutionize the HPC landscape. This paper presents an unsteady flamelet software library developed for utilizing GPUs as an onboard accelerator while the flow solver continues to run on conventional host processors using legacy software. The software was architected to expose multiple levels of parallelism and concurrency available in the unsteady flamelet model which is also necessary to realize the full potential of these accelerators. While the model and its coupling with the flow solver have been known for some time, the potential to target these models and libraries for newer HPC architectures provides a greater incentive for pursuing combustion model development.

Sankaran, Ramanan↗

Phase 1 Free Air CO2 Enrichment Model-Data Synthesis (FACE-MDS): Model Output Data (2015)

These datasets comprise the model output from phase 1 of the FACE-MDS. These include simulations of the Duke and Oak Ridge experiments and also idealised long-term (300 year) simulations at both sites (please see the modelling protocol for details). Included as part of this dataset are modelling and output protocols. The model datasets are formatted according to the output protocols. Phase 1 datasets are reproduced here for posterity and reproducibility although the model output for the experimental period have been somewhat superseded by the Phase 2 datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling Sepsis: Establishment and Validation of a 72-Hour Swine Model of Penetrating Abdominal Trauma

Background/Objectives: Fecal peritonitis following penetrating abdominal trauma is a serious condition that often results in sepsis and organ failure. The aim of our study was to develop a novel conscious porcine model of sepsis and organ dysfunction caused by multiple penetrating injuries to the small and large intestines. Methods: Twelve female Yorkshire pigs (average weight 50.6 ± 6.5 kg) were divided into two groups: Penetrating Abdominal Trauma (PAT) (n = 8) and Control (n = 4). All surgical procedures were performed under anesthesia with adequate analgesia. In the PAT group, the small and large intestines were punctured, and feces mixed with saline were introduced into the abdominal cavity to induce peritonitis. The Control group received sham surgery with only saline solution. The animals were observed in a conscious state over a period of 72 h, vital parameters were recorded, and blood samples were taken regularly. We adapted a pig-specific SOFA score and developed pig-specific SIRS criteria and NEWS2 score to assess organ function. The model was validated by independent investigators. Results: The survival rate in the PAT group was 75%, with an average survival time of 58.5 h, while all animals in the Control group survived to euthanasia. Monitoring showed pathophysiological changes, such as tachycardia, leucopenia, and thrombocytopenia, indicative of sepsis and organ dysfunction. Blinded investigators independently confirmed the model’s validity. Conclusions: A new swine model of penetrating abdominal trauma and sepsis has been successfully developed that demonstrates significant physiological and immunologic changes comparable to human sepsis. This new model provides a realistic platform for future research into sepsis, its diagnostics, and the evaluation of therapeutic strategies.

General & Internal Medicine↗

Special Issue: Microbial Community Modeling: Prediction of Microbial Interactions and Community Dynamics

Microbial communities are networks of species, the interaction structure of which dynamically reorganizes in a varying environment. Even in a static condition, community dynamics are often difficult to predict due to highly nonlinear interspecies interactions. Understanding fundamental principles of microbial interactions is therefore key for predicting and harnessing community function and properties. As extensively reviewed previously, mathematical models and computational methods that can predictively link interactions to community behaviors are indispensable tools for achieving this goal. This Special Issue of Processes collects eleven papers from lead scientists and researchers active in the area under the topic of “Microbial Community Modeling: Prediction of Microbial Interactions and Community Dynamics.” The collected papers cover various topics of interest: 1) two review/opinion papers discussing recent advances in biofilm modeling and specific issues for successful collaboration between experimentalists and theorists, 2) one paper on the dynamics of complex environmental communities, 3) six papers dealing with fundamental aspects of microbial interactions and stability in model communities, and 4) two papers on the development and utilization of microbial consortia for biotechnology applications.

Song, Hyun-Seob (ORCID:0000000221546358)↗

Planck 2015 Constraints on the Non-flat XCDM Inflation Model

We examine the Planck 2015 cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy data by using a physically consistent energy density inhomogeneity power spectrum generated by quantum-mechanical fluctuations during an early epoch of inflation in the non-flat XCDM model. Here dark energy is parameterized using a fluid with a negative equation of state parameter but with the speed of fluid acoustic inhomogeneities set to the speed of light. We find that the Planck 2015 data in conjunction with baryon acoustic oscillation distance measurements are reasonably well fit by a closed-XCDM model in which spatial curvature contributes a percent of the current cosmological energy density budget. In this model, the measured non-relativistic matter density parameter and Hubble constant are in good agreement with values determined using most other data. Depending on cosmological parameter values, the closed-XCDM model has reduced power, relative to the tilted, spatially flat ΛCDM case, and can partially alleviate the low multipole CMB temperature anisotropy deficit and can help partially reconcile the CMB anisotropy and weak lensing σ 8 constraints, at the expense of somewhat worsening the fit to higher multipole CMB temperature anisotropy data. Furthemore, the closed-XCDM inflation model does not seem to improve the agreement much, if at all, compared to the closed ΛCDM inflation case, even though it has one additional free parameter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modelling bidirectional fluxes of methanol and acetaldehyde with the FORCAsT canopy exchange model

Here, the FORCAsT canopy exchange model was used to investigate the underlying mechanisms governing foliage emissions of methanol and acetaldehyde, two short chain oxygenated volatile organic compounds ubiquitous in the troposphere and known to have strong biogenic sources, at a northern mid-latitude forest site. The explicit representation of the vegetation canopy within the model allowed us to test the hypothesis that stomatal conductance regulates emissions of these compounds to an extent that its influence is observable at the ecosystem scale, a process not currently considered in regional- or global-scale atmospheric chemistry models. Here, we found that FORCAsT could only reproduce the magnitude and diurnal profiles of methanol and acetaldehyde fluxes measured at the top of the forest canopy at Harvard Forest if light-dependent emissions were introduced to the model. With the inclusion of such emissions, FORCAsT was able to successfully simulate the observed bidirectional exchange of methanol and acetaldehyde. Although we found evidence that stomatal conductance influences methanol fluxes and concentrations at scales beyond the leaf level, particularly at dawn and dusk, we were able to adequately capture ecosystem exchange without the addition of stomatal control to the standard parameterisations of foliage emissions, suggesting that ecosystem fluxes can be well enough represented by the emissions models currently used.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗