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Head restraint enhances visual monitoring performance

Subjects monitored a visual display for occasional increments in the horizontal movement of a bar of light. When the display was viewed without head restraint, detection probability was directly related to the amplitude of the increments in movement which constituted critical signals and inversely related to background event rate (the frequency of neutral events in which critical signals were embedded). When positioning of the head was restrained by a headrest, the detectability of low-amplitude signals was enhanced considerably and the influence of background event rate was attenuated. The results are considered as providing further support for the importance of sense mode coupling in visual monitoring.

Warm, J. S.↗

Learnings From Rapid Response Efforts to Remotely Detect Landslides Triggered By the August 2021 Nippes Earthquake and Tropical Storm Grace in Haiti

On August 14, 2021, a Mw 7.2 earthquake struck the Tiburon Peninsula of western Haiti triggering thousands of landslides. Three days after the earthquake on August 17, 2021, Tropical Storm Grace crossed shallow waters offshore of southern Haiti triggering more landslides worsening the situation. In the aftermath of these events, several organizations with disaster response capabilities or programs activated to provide information on the location of landslides to first responders on the ground. Utilizing remote sensing to support rapid response, one organization manually mapped initiation point of landslides and three automatically detected landslides. The 2021 Haiti event also provided a unique opportunity to test different automated landslide detection methods that utilized both SAR and optical data in a rapid response scenario where rapid situational awareness was critical. As the methods used are highly replicable, the main goal of this study is to summarize the landslide rapid response products released by the organizations, detection methods, quantify accuracy and provide guidelines on how some of the shortcomings encountered in this effort might be addressed in the future. To support this validation, a manually mapped polygon-based landslide inventory covering the entire affected area was created and is also released through this effort.

2021 Nippes earthquake↗

Graph Neural Networks for low-energy event classification & reconstruction in IceCube

IceCube, a cubic-kilometer array of optical sensors built to detect atmospheric and astrophysical neutrinos between 1 GeV and 1 PeV, is deployed 1.45 km to 2.45 km below the surface of the ice sheet at the South Pole. The classification and reconstruction of events from the in-ice detectors play a central role in the analysis of data from IceCube. Reconstructing and classifying events is a challenge due to the irregular detector geometry, inhomogeneous scattering and absorption of light in the ice and, below 100 GeV, the relatively low number of signal photons produced per event. To address this challenge, it is possible to represent IceCube events as point cloud graphs and use a Graph Neural Network (GNN) as the classification and reconstruction method. The GNN is capable of distinguishing neutrino events from cosmic-ray backgrounds, classifying different neutrino event types, and reconstructing the deposited energy, direction and interaction vertex. Based on simulation, we provide a comparison in the 1 GeV–100 GeV energy range to the current state-of-the-art maximum likelihood techniques used in current IceCube analyses, including the effects of known systematic uncertainties. For neutrino event classification, the GNN increases the signal efficiency by 18% at a fixed background rate, compared to current IceCube methods. Alternatively, the GNN offers a reduction of the background (i.e. false positive) rate by over a factor 8 (to below half a percent) at a fixed signal efficiency. For the reconstruction of energy, direction, and interaction vertex, the resolution improves by an average of 13%–20% compared to current maximum likelihood techniques in the energy range of 1 GeV–30 GeV. The GNN, when run on a GPU, is capable of processing IceCube events at a rate nearly double of the median IceCube trigger rate of 2.7 kHz, which opens the possibility of using low energy neutrinos in online searches for transient events.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Intermittent Criticality Multi‐Scale Processes Leading to Large Slip Events on Rough Laboratory Faults

Abstract We discuss data of three laboratory stick‐slip experiments on Westerly Granite samples performed at elevated confining pressure and constant displacement rate on rough fracture surfaces. The experiments produced complex slip patterns including fast and slow ruptures with large and small fault slips, as well as failure events on the fault surface producing acoustic emission bursts without externally‐detectable stress drop. Preparatory processes leading to large slips were tracked with an ensemble of ten seismo‐mechanical and statistical parameters characterizing local and global damage and stress evolution, localization and clustering processes, as well as event interactions. We decompose complex spatio‐temporal trends in the lab‐quake characteristics and identify persistent effects of evolving fault roughness and damage at different length scales, and local stress evolution approaching large events. The observed trends highlight labquake localization processes on different spatial and temporal scales. The preparatory process of large slip events includes smaller events marked by confined bursts of acoustic emission activity that collectively prepare the fault surface for a system‐wide failure by conditioning the large‐scale stress field. Our results are consistent overall with an evolving process of intermittent criticality leading to large failure events, and may contribute to improved forecasting of large natural earthquakes.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

IDE spatio-temporal impact fluxes and high time-resolution studies of multi-impact events and long-lived debris clouds

During the first 12 months of the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) mission, the Interplanetary Dust Experiment (IDE) recorded over 15,000 total impacts on six orthogonal faces with a time resolution on the order of 15 to 20 seconds. When combined with the orbital data and the stabilized configuration of the spacecraft, this permits a detailed analysis of the micro-particulate environment. The functional status of each of the 459 detectors was monitored every 2.4 hours, and post-flight analyses of these data has now permitted an evaluation of the effective active detection area as a function of time, panel by panel and separately for the two sensitivity levels. Thus, total impacts were transformed into areal fluxes, and are presented here for the first time. Also discussed are possible effects of these fluxes on previously announced results: apparent debris events, meteor stream detections, and beta meteoroids in observationally significant numbers.

Mulholland, J. Derral↗

Wilson Corners SWMU 001 2019-2020 Annual Long-Term Monitoring Report Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This report presents a summary of the long-term monitoring (LTM) activities that occurred in 2019 and 2020 at Wilson Corners, Solid Waste Management Unit 001, at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The site is monitored under KSC’s Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Corrective Action Program. Adaptive site management is being utilized through ongoing assessment, design, and interim measures. This approach also meets the requirements of Chapter 62-780, Florida Administrative Code. The goal of LTM at this site is threefold: to determine groundwater flow characteristics, monitor the downgradient concentration trends, and monitor select locations internal to the groundwater plume. Every 5 years, upgradient and side-gradient monitoring wells are sampled to verify delineation. The last time this was performed was in 2015. Sampling of these wells in 2020 was replaced with the direct push technology investigations in October 2020 and April 2021. The activities presented in this report include three field events: (1) December 2019 -groundwater gauging of 38 monitoring wells and sampling of 36 monitoring wells; (2) May 2020 - groundwater sampling of 7 monitoring wells; and (3) December 2020 - groundwater gauging of 49 monitoring wells and sampling of 43 monitoring wells. During the December 2019 and May 2020 events, monitoring wells were sampled using passive diffusion bags and were analyzed for a “full list” of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), including Freon 113. During the December 2020 event, the low flow sampling method was used, and samples were analyzed for a “select list” of VOCs, including Freon 113. The following conclusions can be made based on the 2019 and 2020 LTM results: •In December 2019 and December 2020, groundwater flow for the site was generally to the west with the individual zones only varying by occasional northerly and southerly components. This is generally consistent with historical observations at the site. •The GCTL plume continues to extend both horizontally and vertically beyond our current monitoring well network. •The vertical extent of VOCs was historically generally delineated by monitoring wells screened greater than 48 feet bls. The results from the two vertical extent monitoring wells WILC-MW0078 and WILC-MW0130 that were sampled during the 2019 and 2020 LTM indicate that groundwater VOC concentrations in both wells were greater than the GCTL. •Freon 113 was not detected above GCTLs during the 2019 and 2020 LTM events. Based on groundwater sampling activities performed during this reporting period, including recent DPT groundwater sampling conducted for the implementation of an air sparge system, the following recommendations are provided: •Install 10 new monitoring wells, which will be sampled along with 49 existing monitoring wells, to assist with delineation of the low concentration plume. The wells are listed inTable 4-1, and the proposed locations are presented on Figures4 -1 through 4-5. (Figures 4-1, 4-2, 4-3, and 4-5 also show updated plumes and proposed performance monitoring well locations. This information will be discussed and presented under a separate cover.) •Modify the annual LTM sampling plan as presented inTable 4-1. •Sampling for future events at the site will be conducted using low flow pumping methods. The next annual LTM sampling event is currently planned for December 2021. Please note the 10 new monitoring wells will not be installed before this event but will be installed as part of the upcoming IM construction and will be sampled during baseline sampling, along with the 49 existing monitoring wells. Following this sampling event, it is recommended that the Annual LTM be combined with the performance monitoring under the IM implementation, and LTM be temporarily discontinued. Objectives of the 2021 LTM are to: (i) evaluate groundwater gradient and flow direction by collecting depth to water measurements from LTM wells; (ii) continue monitoring the peripheral VOC trends in the northern, southern, and western portions of the site by monitoring existing wells and installing and monitoring new wells as recommended; and (iii) monitor select internal plume wells.

Jennifer Lynn Joyal↗

Solar cosmic ray micro-events

To study small discrete solar particle events, it has proven useful to define a special class such that the proton flux at energies greater than 20 MeV exceed 0.0001 protons/sq cm-sec-sr-MeV. These increases are termed microevents. An arbitrary upper limit is placed at 2 X 0.02 protons/sq cm-sec-sr-MeV. By demanding a measurable flux above 20 MeV, a better separation from corotating events is achieved and onset times can in general be determined more precisely. Over an observing period extending from May 1967 through December 1971, approximately 105 events were observed. There are several different sources of these small events. Some are produced by moderate to large solar flares near the east limb or by solar flares on the nonvisible disk of the sun. Others are produced by generally minor solar activity: typically in 1N flare, a group of type 3 radio bursts and a well defined X-ray burst. A significant number of this latter type are accompanied by type 2 radio emission. A small sample of the micro-events can be classified as scatter-free events. For these the distance traveled by the particles before their initial detection at earth is on the order of 1.5 AU and observed rise and decay times are much less than normal. Examples of these general types of micro-events and their solar association are discussed.

Mcdonald, F. B.↗

νBDX: a Coherent Elastic Neutrino Nucleus Scattering (CEνNS) experiment at Jefferson Lab

Particle physics is an ever-changing field seeking to explain phenomena that lie at the limits of our current knowledge. Among discovered and hypothesized interactions, Coherent Elastic Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering (CE?NS) stands out as a fascinating and elusive phenomenon, offering a unique window into the nature of neutrinos and their interactions with matter. CE?NS, a process predicted by the Standard Model, represents one of the subtle ways in which neutrinos can interact with atomic nuclei. Unlike other neutrinonucleus interactions, CE?NS occurs coherently, meaning that the entire nucleus collectively responds to the neutrino-mediated weak force, resulting in small energy transfers to the nucleus as a whole. The extremely rare nature of CE?NS events presents a formidable challenge to experimenters seeking to detect and study these interactions. Recent advances in detector technologies and the implementation of large-scale experiments, such as coherent neutrino scattering experiments at research facilities around the world, have opened up new avenues for exploring this elusive phenomenon. These experiments aim not only to observe CE?NS directly but also to extract valuable information on neutrino properties, nuclear structure, and potential deviations from the Standard Model. This thesis aims to study the feasibility of an experiment to study CE?NS at The Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility, Newport News, VA, USA. This would be an experiment that exploits the production of neutrinos by an electron beam dumped on a thick target (the beam dump). The large quantity of neutrinos produced and their energy profile are well suited to the purpose of studying the CE?NS. In my thesis, I will start from previous studies on CE?NS and from theoretical considerations regarding the process, then quantify the expected events for a hypothetical experiment and possible backgrounds through simulations aimed at optimizing the geometry of the future detector. I will also show some tests on selected detector components that will be part of a first prototype.

Grazzi, Stefano↗

OTD Observations of Continental US Ground Flashes Detected by NLDN

Lightning optical flash parameters (e.g., radiance, area, duration, number of optical groups, and number of optical events) derived from almost 5 yrs of Optical Transient Detector (OTD) data are compared with peak current and multiplicity observations derived from the US National Lightning Detection Networkm (NLDN). Despite the relatively low lightning geolocation accuracy afforded by OTD, a total of 48,870 NLDN cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes were correlated with OTD flashes, or about 10,000 CGs per year. The median values of the above OTD flash parameters for the 48,870 CGs were, respectively: 0.137 J/square meters/sr/micrometers, 313.7 square kilometers, 0.189 s, 4 optical groups per CG, and 8 optical events per CG. Invoking the multiplicity data, the median number of optical groups per stroke was 2.5, and the median number of optical events per stroke was 5.0. Median values of peak current for negative and positive CGs were -21.6 kA and 17.8 kA, respectively, and as expected, the negative CGs had a larger average multiplicity than the positive CGs. A statistical summary is provided for all CGs, for positive and negative CGs, and for CGs from different seasons. Standard two-distribution hypothesis tests were perfonned to intercompare the population means of the various lightning parameters. In particular, and to greater than the 99% confidence level, it was found that positive CGs are on average more radiant, of greater areal extent, and are longer lasting than negative CGs. Rankings from a complete set of hypothesis tests between CGs of different polarities and from different seasons are also provided. Most notably, wintertime positive CGs tend to be more radiant, of greater areal extent, and longer lasting than any other group of CGs (i.e., negative springtime CGs, positive summertime CGs, etc.).

Koshak, William J.↗

Gamma Rays from Kilonova: A Potential Probe of r-process Nucleosynthesis

The mergers of compact binaries with at least one neutron star component are the potential leading sites of the production and ejection of r-process elements. Discoveries of galactic binary pulsars, short gamma-ray bursts, and gravitational-wave detections have all been constraining the rate of these events, while the gravitational wave plus broadband electromagnetic coverage of binary neutron star merger (GW170817) has also placed constraints on the properties (mass and composition) of the merger ejecta. But uncertainties and ambiguities in modeling the optical and infrared emission make it difficult to definitively measure the distribution of heavy isotopes in these mergers. In contrast, gamma rays emitted in the decay of these neutron-rich ejecta may provide a more direct measurement of the yields. We calculate the gamma production in remnants of neutron star mergers, considering two epochs: a kilonova epoch, lasting about two weeks, and a much later epoch of tens and hundreds of thousands of years after the merger. For the kilonova epoch, when the expanding ejecta is still only partially transparent to gamma radiation, we use 3D radiative transport simulations to produce the spectra. Futhermore, we show that the gamma-ray spectra associated with beta- and alpha-decay provide a fingerprint of the ejecta properties and, for a sufficiently nearby remnant, may be detectable, even for old remnants. We compare our gamma spectra with the potential detection limits of next generation detectors, including the Lunar Occultation Explorer (LOX), the All-sky Medium Energy Gamma-ray Observatory (AMEGO), and the Compton Spectrometer and Imager (COSI). We show that fission models can be discriminated via the presence of short-lived fission fragments in the remnant spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluating Radiation Impact on Transmon Qubits Using a Fast Decay Protocol in Above and Underground Laboratories

Superconducting qubits can be sensitive to sudden energy deposits caused by ambient radioactivity and cosmic rays. Previous studies have focused on understanding possible correlated effects over time and distance due to this radiation. In this study‚ for the first time‚ we directly compare the response of a transmon qubit measured initially at the SQMS above-ground facility (Fermilab‚ Illinois‚ USA) and then at the deep underground Gran Sasso Laboratory (INFN-LNGS‚ Italy). We observe the same average qubit lifetime of roughly 80 microseconds at both facilities. We then apply a fast decay detection protocol and investigate the time structure and relative rates of triggered events due to radiation versus intrinsic noise‚ comparing the above and underground performance of several high-coherence qubits. Using gamma sources of variable intensity we calibrate the response of the qubit to different levels of radiation in an environment with minimal background radiation. Results indicate that qubits respond to a strong gamma source‚ and it is possible to detect particle impacts. However‚ we do not observe a difference in radiation-induced-like events when comparing the above and underground results for niobium-based transmon qubits with sapphire substrates. We conclude that the majority of these events are not radiation-related and are attributed to other noise sources‚ which by far dominate single-qubit errors in modern transmon qubits. [1] Dominicis‚ Roy et al. arXiv:2405.18355

Roy, Tanay↗

Spectral evolution of pulse structures in gamma-ray bursts

The Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer (HXRBS) and Gamma-Ray Spectrometer (GRS) data from the Solar Maximum Mission satellite have been searched for gamma-ray bursts with sufficient intensities and relatively simple time profiles such that their spectral behavior may be studied on a time scale of about 1 s. Ten such events were observed with the GRS experiment, and four of these were also detected within the HXRBS field of view. Details are presented for two moderately intense bursts with relatively simple structure. The spectral evolutions of the remaining events are summarized briefly. Results suggest a pattern in the spectral evolution within burst pulses: a tendency for the high-energy emission to lead the low-energy emission, in contrast to the correlation of intensity and spectral hardness reported by Golenetskii et al. (1983).

Norris, J. P.↗

Observations of the Small Magellanic Cloud by the Vela 5B X-ray monitor

We present Vela 5B observations of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) region obtained during the years 1969 - 1979. We detect the 3.89 day orbital modulation of SMC X-1 with a false alarm probability of 4.3 x 10(exp -3) and observe a high state beginning in 1970 September and lasting approximately 100 days. We also detect three outbursts by a transient source consistent with the position of the candidate Be-neutron star system H0107-750 (= 1H 0103-762). These events occur roughly 100 days apart and last for approximately 35 days. No detections of SMC X-2 or SMC X-3 are apparent above a limit of approximately 7 x 10(exp 37) ergs/s.

Whitlock, L.↗

Hanford Tank Vapors in Worker Breathing Zones - Source, Dispersion, and Receptor Data - 20373

A wide range of organic and inorganic chemicals from historical Hanford Site processes are now stored in 177 underground storage tanks at the Hanford tank farms. Workers at the Hanford tank farms have expressed concerns about chemical vapor exposures for many years. During the spring of 2014, worker reports of chemical odors and/or symptoms prompted the development of the Savannah River National Laboratory Hanford Tank Vapor Assessment Team (TVAT) and their resulting independent assessment and recommendations concerning tank farm worker reports of vapors. The Tank Vapor Assessment report included a hypothesis that 'vapors coming out of tanks in high concentration (bolus) plumes sporadically intersected with the breathing zones of workers, resulting in brief but intense exposures to some workers.' The focus of this effort is to present current knowledge to describe the mechanisms by which workers may experience short duration vapor concentrations above background in the tank farms environment. The TVAT hypothesis that workers have experienced concentrations approaching 80% of the tank headspace up to 3 meters (10 feet) from tank sources is not supported by sampling data or modeling results. Modeling indicates that concentrations are quickly reduced from the source, and that the upper end of predicted concentrations at worker breathing zones are a factor of 10 or more lower than source concentrations. Area measurements corroborate the fact that worker breathing zone concentrations are 10 to 100 times lower than source concentrations, and events with elevated concentrations are rare. These reduced vapor concentration levels may result in detectable odors or irritation, depending on a worker's specific odor threshold and sensitivity to the chemical species. Short-duration vapor events may be mitigated by evaluating daily atmospheric conditions in conjunction with planned tank farm activities. Monitoring changing conditions related to tank vapors concentrations at the source and within worker breathing zone is also an important step to protect workers from short duration elevated concentration events. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Model-Based Detection of Coordinated Attacks (DCA) in Distribution Systems

The fast-paced growth in digitization of smart grid components enhances system observability and remote-control capabilities through efficient communication. However, enhanced connectivity results in heightened system vulnerability towards cybersecurity risks in the cyber-physical power system. Coordinated cyber-attacks (CCA), when undetected, lead to system-wide impact in terms of large disturbances or widespread outages. Detecting CCA in the cyber layer is critical to thwart cyber-attacks in real-time before the attack impacts the physical system. The challenge of locating CCA stems from the complex grid dynamics, making it difficult to distinguish between normal operational variations and cyber-attack impact. CCA often employs multiple attack vectors targeting geographically distributed components, further complicating CCA identification. Existing research in intrusion detection is primarily focused on the transmission network and limited to detecting individual attacks. In this paper, a novel proactive DCA strategy is proposed for early detection of CCA by establishing correlations among distinct attack events through model-based reinforcement learning that utilizes abductive reasoning to conclude the attacker goal. The solution includes understanding the system model, learning the system dynamics, and correlating individual cyber-attacks to extract the attacker’s objective. The developed learning algorithm identifies the most probable attack path to reach the attacker’s objective by predicting the next attack steps. A DNP3-based cyber-physical co-simulation testbed is developed to test the proposed algorithm using the IEEE 13-node test feeder.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Inductive System Monitors Tasks

The Inductive Monitoring System (IMS) software developed at Ames Research Center uses artificial intelligence and data mining techniques to build system-monitoring knowledge bases from archived or simulated sensor data. This information is then used to detect unusual or anomalous behavior that may indicate an impending system failure. Currently helping analyze data from systems that help fly and maintain the space shuttle and the International Space Station (ISS), the IMS has also been employed by data classes are then used to build a monitoring knowledge base. In real time, IMS performs monitoring functions: determining and displaying the degree of deviation from nominal performance. IMS trend analyses can detect conditions that may indicate a failure or required system maintenance. The development of IMS was motivated by the difficulty of producing detailed diagnostic models of some system components due to complexity or unavailability of design information. Successful applications have ranged from real-time monitoring of aircraft engine and control systems to anomaly detection in space shuttle and ISS data. IMS was used on shuttle missions STS-121, STS-115, and STS-116 to search the Wing Leading Edge Impact Detection System (WLEIDS) data for signs of possible damaging impacts during launch. It independently verified findings of the WLEIDS Mission Evaluation Room (MER) analysts and indicated additional points of interest that were subsequently investigated by the MER team. In support of the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate, IMS is being deployed as an anomaly detection tool on ISS mission control consoles in the Johnson Space Center Mission Operations Directorate. IMS has been trained to detect faults in the ISS Control Moment Gyroscope (CMG) systems. In laboratory tests, it has already detected several minor anomalies in real-time CMG data. When tested on archived data, IMS was able to detect precursors of the CMG1 failure nearly 15 hours in advance of the actual failure event. In the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, IMS successfully performed real-time engine health analysis. IMS was able to detect simulated failures and actual engine anomalies in an F/A-18 aircraft during the course of 25 test flights. IMS is also being used in colla

Source record↗

Ionospheric Signature of Surface Mine Blasts from Global Positioning System Measurements

Sources such as atmospheric or buried explosions and shallow earthquakes are known to produce infrasonic pressure waves in the atmosphere. Because of the coupling between neutral particles and electrons at ionospheric altitudes, these acoustic and gravity waves induce variations of the ionospheric electron density. The Global Positioning System (GPS) provides a way of directly measuring the total electron content in the ionosphere and, therefore, of detecting such perturbations in the upper atmosphere. In July and August 1996, three large surface mine blasts (1.5 Kt each) were detonated at the Black Thunder coal mine in eastern Wyoming. As part of a seismic and acoustic monitoring- experiment, we deployed five dual-frequency GPS receivers at distances ranging from 50 to 200 km from the mine and were able to detect the ionospheric perturbation caused by the blasts. The perturbation starts 10 to 15 min after the blast, lasts for about 30 min, and propagates with an apparent horizontal velocity of 1200 meters per second. Its amplitude reaches 3 x 10 (exp 14) el per square meters in the 7-3 min period band, a value close to the ionospheric perturbation caused by the M = 6.7 Northridge earthquake. The small signal-to-noise ratio of the perturbation can be improved by slant-stacking the electron content time-series recorded by the different GPS receivers taking into account the horizontal propagation of the perturbation. The energy of the perturbation is concentrated in the 200 to 300 second period band, a result consistent with previous observations and numerical model predictions. The 300 second band probably corresponds to gravity modes and shorter periods to acoustic modes, respectively. Using a 1-D stratified velocity model of the atmosphere we show that linear acoustic ray tracing fits arrival times at all GPS receivers. We interpret the perturbation as a direct acoustic wave caused by the explosion itself. This study shows that even relatively small subsurface events can produce ionospheric perturbations that are above the detection threshold of the GPS technique. By sensing derivative signals, which can be detected over a relatively broad region, it appears that GPS might be particularly useful for source characterization within the first acoustic quiet zone where infrasound would probably be ineffective. This suggests that dual-frequency GPS monitoring could contribute to Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty verification.

Calais, Eric↗

Mechanism for Surface Warming in the Equatorial Pacific during 1994-95

Mechanisms controlling the variation in sea surface temperature warm event in the equatorial Pacific were investigated through ocean model simulations. In addition, the mechanisms of the climatological SST cycle were investigated. The dominant mechanisms governing the seasonal cycle of SST vary significantly across the basin. In the western Pacific the annual cycle of SST is primarily in response to external heat flux. In the central basin the magnitude of zonal advection is comparable to that of the external heat flux. In the eastern basin the role of zonal advection is reduced and the vertical mixing is more important. In the easternmost equatorial Pacific the vertical entrainment contribution is as large as that of vertical diffusion. The model estimate of the vertical mixing contribution to the mixed layer heat budget compared well with estimates obtained by analysis of observations using the same diagnostic vertical mixing scheme. During 1994- 1995 the largest positive SST anomaly was observed in the mid-basin and was related to reduced latent heat flux due to weak surface winds. In the western basin the initial warming was related to enhanced external heating and reduced cooling effects of both vertical mixing and horizontal advection associated with weaker than usual wind stress. In the eastern Pacific where winds were not significantly anomalous throughout 1994-1995, only a moderate warm surface anomaly was detected. This is in contrast to strong El Nino events where the SST anomaly is largest in the eastern basin and, as shown by previous studies, the anomaly is due to zonal advection rather than anomalous surface heat flux. The end of the warm event was marked by cooling in July 1995 everywhere across the equatorial Pacific.

Rienecker, Michele M.↗