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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Improving missing transverse momentum estimation with a deep neural network

At hadron colliders, the net transverse momentum of particles that do not interact with the detector (missing transverse momentum, $^→_𝑝$$^{miss}_{T}$) is a crucial observable in many analyses. In the standard model, $^→_𝑝$$^{miss}_{T}$ originates from neutrinos. Many beyond-the-standard-model particles, such as dark matter candidates, are also expected to leave the experimental apparatus undetected. This paper presents a novel deep neural network based $^→_𝑝$$^{miss}_{T}$ estimator, DeepMET, developed by the CMS Collaboration at the LHC. The DeepMET algorithm produces a weight for each reconstructed particle based on its properties. The estimator is based on the negative vector sum of the weighted transverse momenta of all reconstructed particles in an event. Compared with other estimators currently employed by CMS, DeepMET improves the $^→_𝑝$$^{miss}_{T}$ resolution by 10%–30%, shows improvement for a wide range of final states, is easier to train, and is more resilient against the effects of additional proton-proton interactions accompanying the collision of interest.

artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2026

Direct estimation of the density of states for fermionic systems

Simulating time evolution is one of the most natural applications of quantum computers and is thus one of the most promising prospects for achieving practical quantum advantage. Here, we develop quantum algorithms to extract thermodynamic properties by estimating the density of states (DOS), which is a central object in quantum statistical mechanics. We introduce several key innovations that significantly improve the practicality and extend the generality of previous techniques. First, our approach allows one to estimate the DOS only for a specific subspace of the full Hilbert space. This is crucial for fermionic systems, since both canonical and grand canonical ensemble thermal equilibrium properties depend on subspaces of fixed number. Second, in our approach, by time evolving very simple, random initial states, such as randomly chosen computational basis states, we can exactly recover the DOS on average. Third, due to circuit-depth limitations, we only reconstruct the DOS up to a convolution with a Gaussian window—thus all imperfections that shift the energy levels by less than the width of the convolution window will not significantly affect the estimated DOS. For these reasons, we find the approach is a promising candidate for early quantum advantage as even short-time, noisy dynamics can yield a semiquantitative reconstruction of the DOS (convolution with a broad Gaussian window), while early fault-tolerant devices will likely enable higher-resolution DOS reconstruction through longer time evolutions. We demonstrate the practicality of our approach in representative Fermi-Hubbard and spin models and indeed find that our approach is highly robust against algorithmic errors in the time evolution and against gate noise. We further demonstrate that our approach is compatible with noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) computing NISQ-friendly variational techniques, introducing and leveraging a technique for variational time evolution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantum advantages for Pauli channel estimation

We show that entangled measurements provide an exponential advantage in sample complexity for Pauli channel estimation, which is both a fundamental problem and a practically important subroutine for benchmarking near-term quantum devices. The specific task we consider is to simultaneously learn all the eigenvalues of an n-qubit Pauli channel to ±ε precision. We give an estimation protocol with an n-qubit ancilla that succeeds with high probability using only O(n/ε 2 ) copies of the Pauli channel, while proving that any ancilla-free protocol (possibly with adaptive control and channel concatenation) would need at least Ω(2 n/3 ) rounds of measurement. We further study the advantages provided by a small number of ancillas. For the case that a k-qubit ancilla (k≤n) is available, we obtain a sample complexity lower bound of Ω(2 (n-k)/3 ) for any nonconcatenating protocol, and a stronger lower bound of Ω(n 2n-k ) for any nonadaptive, nonconcatenating protocol, which is shown to be tight. We also show how to apply the ancilla-assisted estimation protocol to a practical quantum benchmarking task in a noise-resilient and sample-efficient manner, given reasonable noise assumptions. Our results provide a practically interesting example for quantum advantages in learning and also bring insights for quantum benchmarking.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Utilizing the maximum likelihood estimator for flow analysis

We explore the possibility of evaluating flow harmonics by employing the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). For a given finite multiplicity, the MLE simultaneously furnishes estimations for all the parameters of the underlying distribution function while efficiently suppressing the variance of measures. Also, the method provides a means to assess a specific class of mixed harmonics, which is not straightforwardly feasible by the approaches primarily based on particle correlations. The results are analyzed using the Wald, likelihood ratio, and score tests of hypotheses. Besides, the resultant flow harmonics obtained using MLE are compared with those derived using particle correlations and event plane methods. Here, the dependencies of extracted flow harmonics on the multiplicity of individual events and the total number of events are analyzed. It is shown that the proposed approach works efficiently to deal with the deficiency in detector acceptability. Moreover, we elaborate on a fictitious scenario where the event plane is not a well-defined quantity in the distribution function. For the latter case, the MLE is shown to largely perform better than the two-particle correlation estimator. In this regard, one concludes that the MLE furnishes a meaningful alternative to the existing approaches for flow analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of cosine tapering window on quantum phase estimation

Here, we provide a modification to the quantum phase estimation algorithm (QPEA) [Abrams and Lloyd, Phys. Rev. Lett. 83, 5162 (1999); Cleve et al., Proc. R. Soc. A 454, 339 (1998); Nielsen and Chuang, Quantum computation and quantum information, 2002.] inspired by classical windowing methods for spectral density estimation. From this modification we obtain an upper bound in the cost that implies a cubic improvement with respect to the algorithm's error rate. Numerical evaluation of the costs also demonstrates an improvement. Moreover, with similar techniques, we detail an iterative projective measurement method for ground state preparation that gives an exponential improvement over previous bounds using QPEA. Numerical tests that confirm the expected scaling behavior are also obtained. For these numerical tests we have used a lattice Thirring model as testing ground. Using well-known perturbation theory results, we also show how to more appropriately estimate the cost scaling with respect to state error instead of evolution operator error.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust neural network-enhanced estimation of local primordial non-Gaussianity

When applied to the nonlinear matter distribution of the universe, neural networks have been shown to be very statistically sensitive probes of cosmological parameters, such as the linear perturbation amplitude σ 8 . However, when used as a “black box,” neural networks are not robust to baryonic uncertainty. We propose a robust architecture for constraining primordial non-Gaussianity f NL , by training a neural network to locally estimate σ 8 , and correlating these local estimates with the large-scale density field. We apply our method to N-body simulations, and show that σ⁡(f NL ) is 3.5 times better than the constraint obtained from a standard halo-based approach. Finally, we show that our method has the same robustness property as large-scale halo bias: baryonic physics can change the normalization of the estimated f NL , but cannot change whether f NL is detected.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect with ACT, DES, and BOSS: A novel hybrid estimator

The kinematic and thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (kSZ and tSZ) effects probe the abundance and thermodynamics of ionized gas in galaxies and clusters. We present a new hybrid estimator to measure the kSZ effect by combining cosmic microwave background temperature anisotropy maps with photometric and spectroscopic optical survey data. The method interpolates a velocity reconstruction from a spectroscopic catalog at the positions of objects in a photometric catalog, which makes it possible to leverage the high number density of the photometric catalog and the precision of the spectroscopic survey. Combining this hybrid kSZ estimator with a measurement of the tSZ effect simultaneously constrains the density and temperature of free electrons in the photometrically selected galaxies. Using the 1000 deg 2 of overlap between the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 5, the first three years of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) Data Release 12, we detect the kSZ signal at 4.8 σ and reject the null (no-kSZ) hypothesis at 5.1 σ . This corresponds to 2.0 σ per 100,000 photometric objects with a velocity field based on a spectroscopic survey with 1 / 5 th the density of the photometric catalog. For comparison, a recent ACT analysis using exclusively spectroscopic data from BOSS measured the kSZ signal at 2.1 σ per 100,000 objects. Our derived constraints on the thermodynamic properties of the galaxy halos are consistent with previous measurements. With future surveys, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, we expect that this hybrid estimator could result in measurements with significantly better signal-to-noise than those that rely on spectroscopic data alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven estimates for light-quark-connected and strange-plus-disconnected hadronic g − 2 window quantities

A number of discrepancies have emerged between lattice computations and data-driven dispersive evaluations of the RBC/UKQCD intermediate-window-hadronic contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment. It is therefore interesting to obtain data-driven estimates for the light-quark-connected and strange-plus-disconnected components of this window quantity, allowing for a more detailed comparison between the lattice and data-driven approaches. The aim of this paper is to provide these estimates, extending the analysis to several other window quantities, including two windows designed to focus on the region in which the two-pion contribution is dominant. Clear discrepancies are observed for all light-quark-connected contributions considered, while good agreement with lattice results is found for strange-plus-disconnected contributions to the quantities for which corresponding lattice results exist. The largest of these discrepancies is that for the RBC/UKQCD intermediate window, where, as previously reported, our data-driven result, a μ W 1 , lqc = 198.9 ( 1.1 ) × 10 − 10 , is in significant tension with the results of 8 different recent lattice determinations. Our strategy is the same as recently employed in obtaining data-driven estimates for the light-quark-connected and strange-plus-disconnected components of the full leading-order hadronic vacuum polarization contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment. Updated versions of those earlier results are also presented, for completeness. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Benton, Genessa (ORCID:0009000515763654)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Estimation of Pauli Observables by Derandomization

In this work, we consider the problem of jointly estimating expectation values of many Pauli observables, a crucial subroutine in variational quantum algorithms. Starting with randomized measurements, we propose an efficient derandomization procedure that iteratively replaces random single-qubit measurements by fixed Pauli measurements; the resulting deterministic measurement procedure is guaranteed to perform at least as well as the randomized one. In particular, for estimating any L low-weight Pauli observables, a deterministic measurement on only of order log(L) copies of a quantum state suffices. In some cases, for example, when some of the Pauli observables have high weight, the derandomized procedure is substantially better than the randomized one. Specifically, numerical experiments highlight the advantages of our derandomized protocol over various previous methods for estimating the ground-state energies of small molecules.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mitigating Depolarizing Noise on Quantum Computers with Noise-Estimation Circuits

A significant problem for current quantum computers is noise. While there are many distinct noise channels, the depolarizing noise model often appropriately describes average noise for large circuits involving many qubits and gates. We present a method to mitigate the depolarizing noise by first estimating its rate with a noise-estimation circuit and then correcting the output of the target circuit using the estimated rate. The method is experimentally validated on the simulation of the Heisenberg model. We find that our approach in combination with readout-error correction, randomized compiling, and zero-noise extrapolation produces results close to exact results even for circuits containing hundreds of CNOT gates.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced Estimation of Quantum Properties with Common Randomized Measurements

We present a technique for enhancing the estimation of quantum state properties by incorporating approximate prior knowledge about the quantum state. This consists in performing randomized measurements on a quantum processor and comparing the results with those obtained from a classical computer that stores an approximation of the quantum state. We provide unbiased estimators for expectation values of multicopy observables and present performance guarantees in terms of variance bounds that depend on the prior knowledge accuracy. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through experimental and numerical examples detecting mixed-state entanglement, and estimating polynomial approximations of the von Neumann entropy and state fidelities. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hardware-Efficient Quantum Phase Estimation via Local Control

Quantum phase estimation plays a central role in quantum simulation as it enables the study of spectral properties of many-body quantum systems. Most variants of the phase estimation algorithm require the application of the global unitary evolution conditioned on the state of one or more auxiliary qubits, posing a significant challenge for current quantum devices. In this work, we present an approach to quantum phase estimation that uses only locally controlled operations, resulting in a significantly reduced circuit depth. At the heart of our approach are efficient routines to measure the complex phase of the expectation value of the time-evolution operator, the so-called Loschmidt echo, for both circuit dynamics and Hamiltonian dynamics. By tracking changes in the phase during the dynamics, the routines trade circuit depth for increased sampling cost and classical postprocessing. Our approach does not rely on reference states and is applicable to any efficiently preparable state, regardless of its correlations. We provide a comprehensive analysis of the sample complexity and illustrate the results with numerical simulations. Our methods offer a practical pathway for measuring spectral properties in large many-body quantum systems using current quantum devices.

Schiffer, Benjamin F. [Max Planck Institute of Qua↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inertia Estimation and Trend Analysis of the United States Power Grid Interconnections

The transition from conventional to modern power systems is causing an increase in integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs). This generally leads to a decrease in total system inertia, which in-turn increases the system’s rate-of-change-of-frequency (RoCoF) during disturbances. This poses a threat to the frequency stability of the system and may falsely trigger protective devices. To monitor system status and plan for integrating renewable energy sources like photovoltaic, wind, and energy storage systems, a realistic study of inertia estimation and analysis in the United States (US) over the past decade is needed. This paper uses field-measured phasor measurement unit (PMU) data collected throughout the US from 2013 to 2023 via the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye) operated by the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The collected PMU frequency data is utilized to estimate the system inertia of the three US interconnections: Eastern, Western, and Texas. Various RoCoF time windows are investigated for estimating the inertia of each interconnection by maximizing the correlation coefficient between the measured RoCoF and power mismatch. The resulting inertia trends over the past decade show approximately a 6% decline in inertia in the Eastern interconnection, a 15% decline in inertia in the Western interconnection, and a 16% increase in inertia in Texas. Key insights into how inertia is changing amidst the complex energy landscape are extracted using the fuel mix trend data. This provides valuable information for future energy strategies and planning.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Machine Learning based Approach of Estimating Equivalent Circuit Model Parameters at Different SoCs of Li-ion Batteries from Voltage Relaxation

Abstract: In this study, an approach of estimating the equivalent circuit model (ECM) parameters for Li-ion batteries (LIBs) is proposed based on the voltage value at different intervals while relaxing the LIB after discharge. The typical approach for estimating ECM parameters of a LIB is to conduct electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) measurements at different frequencies and fit them to a predefined circuit model, which requires additional measuring arrangements and specialized devices. The proposed methodology utilizes four different voltages at 0s, 60s, 360s, and 1800s alongside the specific state of charge (SoC) value for a specific constant discharge current value of ~1C until the relaxation stage to train and evaluate three regression-based machine learning models— Support Vector Regression (SVR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR)—for estimating the ECM parameters of the selected model. Bayesian optimization is employed for hyperparameter tuning to achieve optimal performance for all the regressor models, among which, the GPR provided the best performance with the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of less than 4x10-4 on average for the resistive components and less than 0.27 for capacitive components with excellent R2 scores. The simplicity of the approach enables it to eliminate the need for sophisticated measuring equipment and computation power.

Sagar, Md. Samiul [The University of Alabama (UA)]↗
DOE OSTI2024

At Risk Population Estimates for Belarus, Poland and Slovakia with Machine Learning

High-resolution gridded population modeling is crucial for various applications, including disaster response planning, infectious disease spread modeling, climate change impact estimation, policy development, and more. Multiple gridded population datasets have been developed, each tailored to meet specific objectives. Among them, LandScan Global dataset is designed to represent ambient and unwarned population distributions. However, this dataset relies on a statistical approach that requires manual adjustments, making it time consuming and labour intensive. Existing machine learning (ML) methods often train and test at different spatial resolutions, potentially leading to inflated results, and they rely on Census population totals for disaggregation. To address these limitations, in this study we developed population estimates using ML models trained and tested at a consistent 30 arc-second resolution (≈1 square kilometer), specifically using Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost. These models were trained on 2020 datum to predict for 2021 for three countries: Belarus, Poland, and Slovakia. Our findings show that both RF (MAE varies from 5.75 to 13.25) and XGBoost (MAE varies from 8.15 to 23.44) model performance is close to LandScan Global estimates. Furthermore, neither of the models performed the best across all grid cells: the RF model was more effective in areas with lower populations, while XGBoost excelled in more densely populated regions. The proposed approach can be used for countries where the Census data is not available.

Lebakula, Viswadeep [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000152935914↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Real-Time Degradation Estimation Approach for Batteries in PV and Battery Hybrid Plant Operation

Conventional cyclic degradation assessment for batteries is often limited in its ability to provide real-time degradation information during operation, because the estimation of degradation is commonly performed after a specific evaluation period. Modified methods can provide real-time evaluation but at the cost of high computation complexity. This paper proposes a novel estimation method that addresses these limitations. It efficiently determines the incremental degradation of any two consecutive state-of-charge (SOC) samples during battery operation, thus enabling real-time estimation. To validate the proposed method, measurement data from lithium-ion phosphate (LFP) battery testing was adopted, and the results were compared with the conventional model and the measured capacity. The results demonstrate accuracy over the evaluation period in terms of cumulative degradation, and a reduced computation cost compared with other methods. This approach has benefits in various applications, especially in cases where batteries experience irregular charging and discharging stress cycles such as PV and battery hybrid plants.

Wang, Shumeng↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Nonlinear Least Squares Phasor Estimation Algorithm with a Trust Metric

The paper presents a separable nonlinear least squares (NLLS)-based approach for estimation of fundamental-frequency phasors from sampled point-on-wave measurements. An analytical connection is established between the NLLS cost function and the discrete Fourier transform (DFT)-based periodogram of the input signal. This periodogram-based interpretation of the cost function offers an intuitive and easy-to-implement solution for the frequency estimate. Using the residual error of the NLLS-fit, the paper also presents an insightful measure for ascertaining the quality of the phasor estimates and their validity, especially for data windows containing signal transients.

Chatterjee, Kaustav↗
DOE OSTI2021

Joint Matrix Completion and Compressed Sensing for State Estimation in Low-observable Distribution System

Limited measurement availability at the distribution grid presents challenges for state estimation and situational awareness. This paper combines the advantages of two sparsity-based state estimation approaches (matrix completion and compressive sensing) that have been proposed recently to address the challenge of unobservability. The proposed approach exploits both the low rank structure and a suitable transform domain representation to leverage the correlation structure of the spatio-temporal data matrix while incorporating the powerflow constraints of the distribution grid. Simulations are carried out on three phase unbalanced IEEE 37 test system to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The performance results reveal - (1) the superiority over traditional matrix completion and (2) very low state estimation errors for high compression ratios representing very low observability.

Dahale, Shweta↗