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DOE OSTI2018

Synthesizing models useful for ecohydrology and ecohydraulic approaches: An emphasis on integrating models to address complex research questions

Ecohydrology combines empiricism, data analytics, and the integration of models to characterize linkages between ecological and hydrological processes. A challenge for practitioners is determining which models best generalizes heterogeneity in hydrological behaviour, including water fluxes across spatial and temporal scales, integrating environmental and socio–economic activities to determine best watershed management practices and data requirements. We conducted a literature review and synthesis of hydrologic, hydraulic, water quality, and ecological models designed for solving interdisciplinary questions. We reviewed 1,275 papers and identified 178 models that have the capacity to answer an array of research questions about ecohydrology or ecohydraulics. Of these models, 43 were commonly applied due to their versatility, accessibility, user–friendliness, and excellent user–support. Forty–one of 43 reviewed models were linked to at least 1 other model especially: Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (linked to 21 other models), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (19), and Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (15). However, model integration was still relatively infrequent. There was substantial variation in model applications, possibly an artefact of the regional focus of research questions, simplicity of use, quality of user–support efforts, or a limited understanding of model applicability. Simply increasing the interoperability of model platforms, transformation of models to user–friendly forms, increasing user–support, defining the reliability and risk associated with model results, and increasing awareness of model applicability may promote increased use of models across subdisciplines. Furthermore, the current availability of models allows an array of interdisciplinary questions to be addressed, and model choice relates to several factors including research objective, model complexity, ability to link to other models, and interface choice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Method for assessing coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model and unascertained measure theory

Water inrush from coal-seam floors greatly threatens mining safety in North China and is a complex process controlled by multiple factors. This study presents a mathematical assessment system for coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model (VWM) and unascertained measure theory (UMT). In contrast to the traditional constant-weight model (CWM), which assigns a fixed weight to each factor, the VWM varies with the factor-state value. The UMT employs the confidence principle, which is more effective in ordered partition problems than the maximum membership principle adopted in the former mathematical theory. The method is applied to the Datang Tashan Coal Mine in North China. First, eight main controlling factors are selected to construct the comprehensive evaluation index system. Subsequently, an incentive-penalty variable-weight model is built to calculate the variable weights of each factor. Then, the VWM-UMT model is established using the quantitative risk-grade divide of each factor according to the UMT. On this basis, the risk of coal-floor water inrush in Tashan Mine No. 8 is divided into five grades. For comparison, the CWM is also adopted for the risk assessment, and a differences distribution map is obtained between the two methods. Finally, the verification of water-inrush points indicates that the VWM-UMT model is powerful and more feasible and reasonable. The model has great potential and practical significance in future engineering applications.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2020

Preliminary Introduction of a Free Vortex Wake Method Into OpenFAST

Increasing wind turbine size can have substantial economic benefits. However, increasing wind turbine turbine size requires the use of models that accurately capture the aerodynamic response to large deflections and nonstraight blade geometries. Additionally, the installation of offshore floating turbines requires turbine models that can handle large rotor motion. Free vortex wake (FVW) methods are capable of modeling this type of complex physics while remaining computationally tractable to perform the many simulations necessary for turbine design. In this work, a FVW model is added to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory engineering tool OpenFAST to allow for the aerodynamic modeling of highly flexible turbines along with the aero-hydro-servo-elastic response capabilities of OpenFAST. Code implementation is not complete and thus no results are presented. However, areas of potential modeling improvement are discussed, such as modifications to the circulation calculation and the need for different FVW input model specifications when high-thrust cases are being modeled.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Library of Advanced Materials for Engineering (LAME) 4.54

Accurate and efficient constitutive modeling remains a cornerstone issue for solid mechanics analysis. Over the years, the LAMÉ advanced material model library has grown to address this challenge by implementing models capable of describing material systems spanning soft polymers to stiff ceramics including both isotropic and anisotropic responses. Inelastic behaviors including (visco)plasticity, damage, and fracture have all incorporated for use in various analyses. This multitude of options and flexibility, however, comes at the cost of many capabilities, features, and responses and the ensuing complexity in the resulting implementation. Therefore, to enhance confidence and enable the utilization of the LAMÉ library in application, this effort seeks to document and verify the various models in the LAMÉ library. Specifically, the broader strategy, organization, and interface of the library itself is first presented. The physical theory, numerical implementation, and user guide for a large set of models is then discussed. Importantly, a number of verification tests are performed with each model to not only have confidence in the model itself but also highlight some important response characteristics and features that may be of interest to end-users. Finally, in looking ahead to the future, approaches to add material models to this library and further expand the capabilities are presented.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reliability modeling in a predictive maintenance context: A margin-based approach

Current system reliability methods (typically based on fault trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate reliability data from the asset to the system level in order to identify system critical points. However, employed asset reliability data are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). Sensor data, diagnostic assessments, and prognostic assessments are in fact not considered in plant reliability models used to inform system engineers on the most critical assets. In addition, the propagation of quantitative health data from the asset to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature and structure of health data elements (e.g., vibration spectra, temperature readings, expected failure time). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating available health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Here, this paper is directly addressing these two goals by proposing a different approach for reliability modeling that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. The propagation of health data from the asset to the system level is performed through fault tree models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated with asset performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired asset performance (i.e., its health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision-making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical assets.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Design and application of a kinetic model of lipid metabolism in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Lipid biosynthesis plays a vital role in living cells and has been increasingly engineered to overproduce various lipid-based chemicals. However, owing to the tightly constrained and interconnected nature of lipid biosynthesis, both understanding and engineering of lipid metabolism remain challenging, even with the help of mathematical models. Here we report the development of a kinetic metabolic model of lipid metabolism in Saccharomyces cerevisiae that integrates fatty acid biosynthesis, glycerophospholipid metabolism, sphingolipid metabolism, storage lipids, lumped sterol synthesis, and the synthesis and transport of relevant target-chemicals, such as fatty acids and fatty alcohols. The model was trained on lipidomic data of a reference S. cerevisiae strain, single knockout mutants, and lipid overproduction strains reported in literature. The model was used to design mutants for fatty alcohol overproduction and the lipidomic analysis of the resultant mutant strains coupled with model-guided hypothesis led to discovery of a futile cycle in the triacylglycerol biosynthesis pathway. In addition, the model was used to explain successful and unsuccessful mutant designs in metabolic engineering literature. Thus, this kinetic model of lipid metabolism can not only enable the discovery of new phenomenon in lipid metabolism but also the engineering of mutant strains for overproduction of lipids.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A systematic feature extraction and selection framework for data-driven whole-building automated fault detection and diagnostics in commercial buildings

In data-driven automated fault detection and diagnostics (AFDD) modeling for building energy systems, feature engineering is a critical process of extracting information from high-dimensional and noisy sensor measurement and turning it into informative and representative inputs or features for data-driven modeling. However, few studies specifically discuss the feature engineering, especially the interactions between feature extraction and feature selection in whole-building AFDD. We developed a systematic feature extraction and selection framework for whole-building AFDD. In this framework, features are aggressively extracted from raw sensor data using statistical feature extraction techniques with various window sizes and statistics. With many features extracted, a hybrid feature selection algorithm that combines the filter and wrapper method then selects the best feature set. The framework considers diversity in the duration of fault behavior among fault types in whole-building AFDD, thus achieving high model generalization. We implemented our developed framework in a virtual testbed calibrated with measured data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Flexible Research Platform designed to mimic the operation of a typical small commercial building. The AFDD model is trained by the simulation data generated from the virtual testbed. The results show that (1) the developed framework improves the generalization of the AFDD model by 10.7% compared with literature-reported feature extraction and selection methods and (2) features with diverse window sizes and statistics are selected, providing insight into physical systems beyond the current understanding of buildings and faults and improving the detection and diagnostics of multiple fault types.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2017

Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Accident Tolerant Fuels High Impact Problem: FeCrAl Modeling Capabilities

Iron-chromium-aluminum alloys are a potential candidate replacement for zirconium-based claddings in light water reactor fuel rods due to their increased strength (lower creep rates and higher yield stress) and slower oxidation kinetics with steam. Their larger neutron absorption cross-section necessitates thinner claddings and larger fuel pellets to maintain the same as-fabricated fuel-to-clad gap. The aggressive development schedule of the United States Department of Energy's (DOE) Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) to have potential accident tolerant fuels (ATF) concepts in lead test rods or assemblies by 2022 has necessitated the need for advanced modeling and simulation techniques to investigate the behavior of these materials under normal operating and accident conditions. This report presents the modeling capabilities for FeCrAl claddings at the engineering (continuum) scale developed as part of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) high impact problem (HIP). Sensitivity studies of select material parameters have been completed to determine their significance in predictions of important fuel performance parameters such as fuel centerline and surface temperatures, cladding stresses and strains, fission gas released, and rod internal pressure. Comparative analyses of FeCrAl and Zircaloy-4 claddings for separate effects conditions are presented.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2017

SAM Theory Manual

The System Analysis Module (SAM) is an advanced and modern system analysis tool being developed at Argonne National Laboratory under the U.S. DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. SAM development aims for advances in physical modeling, numerical methods, and software engineering to enhance its user experience and usability for reactor transient analyses. To facilitate the code development, SAM utilizes an object-oriented application framework (MOOSE), and its underlying meshing and finite-element library (libMesh) and linear and non-linear solvers (PETSc), to leverage modern advanced software environments and numerical methods. SAM focuses on modeling advanced reactor concepts such as SFRs (sodium fast reactors), LFRs (lead-cooled fast reactors), and FHRs (fluoride-salt-cooled high temperature reactors) or MSRs (molten salt reactors). These advanced concepts are distinguished from light-water reactors in their use of single-phase, low-pressure, high-temperature, and low Prandtl number (sodium and lead) coolants. As a new code development, the initial effort has been focused on modeling and simulation capabilities of heat transfer and single-phase fluid dynamics responses in Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) systems. The system-level simulation capabilities of fluid flow and heat transfer in general engineering systems and typical SFRs have been verified and validated. This document provides the theoretical and technical basis of the code to help users understand the underlying physical models (such as governing equations, closure models, and component models), system modeling approaches, numerical discretization and solution methods, and the overall capabilities in SAM. As the code is still under ongoing development, this SAM Theory Manual will be updated periodically to keep it consistent with the state of the development.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2019

Density estimation techniques for multiscale coupling of kinetic models of the plasma material interface

In this work we analyze two classes of Density-Estimation techniques which can be used to consistently couple different kinetic models of the plasma-material interface, intended as the region of plasma immediately interacting with the first surface layers of a material wall. In particular, we handle the general problem of interfacing a continuum multi-species Vlasov-Poisson-BGK plasma model to discrete surface erosion models. The continuum model solves for the energy-angle distributions of the particles striking the surface, which are then driving the surface response. A modification to the classical Binary-Collision Approximation (BCA) method is here utilized as a prototype discrete model of the surface, to provide boundary conditions and impurity distributions representative of the material behavior during plasma irradiation. The numerical tests revealed the superior convergence properties of Gaussian Mixture Models over Kernel Density Estimation methods, with Gaussian Mixtures and Epanechnikov-KDEs both being up to two orders of magnitude faster than Gaussian-KDEs. The methodology here presented allows a self-consistent treatment of the plasma-material interface in magnetic fusion devices, including both the near-surface plasma (plasma sheath and presheath) in magnetized conditions, and surface effects such as sputtering, back-scattering, and ion implantation. The same coupling techniques can also be utilized for other discrete material models such as Molecular Dynamics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Metabolic Model of the Nitrogen-Fixing Obligate Aerobe Azotobacter vinelandii Predicts Its Adaptation to Oxygen Concentration and Metal Availability

There is considerable interest in promoting biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) as a mechanism to reduce the inputs of nitrogenous fertilizers in agriculture, but considerable fundamental knowledge gaps still need to be addressed. BNF is catalyzed by nitrogenase, which requires a large input of energy in the form of ATP and low potential electrons. Diazotrophs that respire aerobically have an advantage in meeting the ATP demands of BNF but face challenges in protecting nitrogenase from inactivation by oxygen. Here, we constructed a genome-scale metabolic model of the nitrogen-fixing bacterium Azotobacter vinelandii, which uses a complex respiratory protection mechanism to consume oxygen at a high rate to keep intracellular conditions microaerobic. Our model accurately predicts growth rate under high oxygen and substrate concentrations, consistent with a large electron flux directed to the respiratory protection mechanism. While a partially decoupled electron transport chain compensates for some of the energy imbalance under high-oxygen conditions, it does not account for all substrate intake, leading to increased maintenance rates. Interestingly, the respiratory protection mechanism is required for accurate predictions even when ammonia is supplemented during growth, suggesting that the respiratory protection mechanism might be a core principle of metabolism and not just used for nitrogenase protection. We have also shown that rearrangement of flux through the electron transport system allows A. vinelandii to adapt to different oxygen concentrations, metal availability, and genetic disruption, which cause an ammonia excretion phenotype. Accurately determining the energy balance in an aerobic nitrogen-fixing metabolic model is required for future engineering approaches.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Final Report for Project 13-4791: New Mechanistic Models of Creep-Fatigue Crack Growth Interactions for Advanced High Temperature Reactor Components

This project developed and validated a novel, multi-scale, mechanism-based model to quantitatively predict creep-fatigue crack growth and failure for Ni-based Alloy 617 at 800°C. Alloy 617 is a target material for intermediate heat exchangers in Generation IV very high temperature reactor designs, and it is envisioned that this model will aid in the design of safe, long lasting nuclear power plants. The technical effectiveness of the model was shown by demonstrating that experimentally observed crack growth rates can be predicted under both steady state and overload crack growth conditions. Feasibility was considered by incorporating our model into a commercially available finite element method code, ABAQUS, that is commonly used by design engineers. While the focus of the project was specifically on an alloy targeted for Generation IV nuclear reactors, the benefits to the public are expected to be wide reaching. Indeed, creep-fatigue failure is a design consideration for a wide range of high temperature mechanical systems that rely on Ni-based alloys, including industrial gas power turbines, advanced ultra-super critical steam turbines, and aerospace turbine engines. It is envisioned that this new model can be adapted to a wide range of engineering applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automating and Evaluating Large Language Models for Accurate Text Summarization Under Zero-Shot Conditions

Automated text summarization (ATS) is crucial for collecting specialized, domain-specific information. Zero-shot learning (ZSL) allows large language models (LLMs) to respond to prompts on information not included in their training, playing a vital role in this process. This study evaluates LLMs' effectiveness in generating accurate summaries under ZSL conditions and explores using retrieval augmented generation (RAG) and prompt engineering to enhance factual accuracy and understanding. We combined LLMs with summarization modeling, prompt engineering, and RAG, evaluating the summaries using the METEOR metric and keyword frequencies through word clouds. Results indicate that LLMs are generally well-suited for ATS tasks, demonstrating an ability to handle specialized information under ZSL conditions with RAG. However, web scraping limitations hinder a single generalized retrieval mechanism. While LLMs show promise for ATS under ZSL conditions with RAG, challenges like goal misgeneralization and web scraping limitations need addressing. Future research should focus on solutions to these issues.

Priebe Mendes Rocha, Maria Eduarda [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2018

2014-2018 Summary of NCAR activities in the Earth Energy Exascale System Model (E3SM) project

NCAR participation in E3SM activities as part of this funded collaborative project has been successful in leveraging the existing atmosphere model development experience from CESM scientists and applying it to initial v1 atmosphere model (EAM) development and analysis. NCAR partners collectively had many decades of experience in parameterization development, running and tuning coupled models and building the required software infrastructure to support ongoing model developments. Furthermore, collaboration between E3SM and CESM developers was of mutual benefit to both modeling endeavors. In the earlier periods of the project, participation in E3SM both complemented core critical path DOE activities and advanced individual parameterization development; including orographic drag, convection parameterization, convective gustiness and cloud and microphysical processes. Significant progress has been made implementing model capabilities for separating out the physics and dynamics grids, and providing the infrastructure for including orographic elevation class communication between the land and atmosphere models. Our activities working with the E3SM workflow and software engineering teams have established efficient protocols and infrastructure for the sharing of CESM and E3SM model codes of interest to both modeling groups, a large component of which is the mutual communication of common code bugs. As well as these specific project tasks all NCAR project members have been regular participants in atmosphere and coupled group telecons, as well as PI meetings. We have been fully engaged with and contributed to decisions regarding v1 atmosphere model developments, coupled model simulations, model tunings, and software engineering infrastructure. NCAR’s contribution to more recent E3SM development activities has centered on analysis of v1 release and pre-release simulations in order to address outstanding systematic biases and communicate climate improvements. Of particularly note is the work in understanding clouds and cloud feedbacks, shortcomings in ENSO and sub-seasonal variability; in particular the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Contributions have been made to a number of papers that are currently published or in preparation detailing model performance in CMIP6-protocal experiments. They outline the simulations of mean climate, clouds and convection processes, convective gustiness, atmospheric blocking coupled climates. The contributions of NCAR’s funded activities to the E3SM atmosphere in the initial years of the project have had a positive impact on many aspects of the model simulations described in these papers.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Modeling of Fission Gas Behavior in Uranium Oxide Nuclear Fuel Applied to Engineering Fuel Performance Codes

This presentation provides an update on the I-NERI project 2017-004-E between INL and JRC-Karlsruhe (European Commission). I-NERI is a collaboration initiative between the European institutions and the US DOE which favors collaborative work. INL is involved in multiple INERI projects, principally on the experimental side but also on the modeling side with this project, which focuses on fission gas modeling. This year's I-NERI meeting is in the USA (LLNL) and G. Pastore, who is the US PI for this, will provide the update. The project has led to fission gas developments that are being applied in the Bison code and strengthened collaborations of INL in this area with JRC and POLIMI.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2013

Orthogonal decomposition as a design tool: With application to a mixing impeller

Digital manufacturing eliminates the expense and time required to develop custom products. By utilizing this technology, designers can quickly create a customized product specifically for their performance needs. But the timescale and expense from the engineering design workflows used to develop these customized products have not been adapted from the workflows used in mass production. In many cases these customized designs build upon already successful mass-produced products that were developed using conventional engineering design workflows. Many times as part of this conventional design process significant time is spent creating and validating high fidelity models that accurately predict the performance of the final design. These existing validated high fidelity models used for the mass-produced design can be reused for analysis and design of unknown products. This thesis explores the integration of reduced order modeling and detailed analysis into the engineering design workflow developing a customized design using digital manufacturing. Specifically, detailed analysis is coupled with proper orthogonal decomposition to enable the exploration of the design space while simultaneously shaping the model representing the design. This revised workflow is examined using the design of a laboratory scale overhead mixer impeller. The case study presented here is compared with the design of the Kar Dynamic Mixer impeller developed by The Dow Chemical Company. The result of which is a customized design for a refined set of operating conditions with improved performance.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Library of Advanced Materials for Engineering (LAMÉ) 5.10

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Performance evaluation of automated data-driven feature extraction and selection methods for practical and scalable building energy consumption prediction models

Here, this study quantifies the impact of automated feature engineering methods (feature extraction and selection) on the quality and accuracy of machine learning models that predict building energy consumption. The case study compares model performance for three main scenarios: baseline (no feature extraction and selection), feature extraction only, and feature extraction combined with feature selection (filter and/or wrapper methods) for fully trained machine learning models for 200 metered/sub-metered energy measurements across 118 real buildings. For consistency, the same machine learning model architecture (a black box deep learning neural network with probabilistic forecast output) was used for all scenarios. Based on results, all feature engineering methods provided noticeable prediction accuracy improvements (e.g., 29%-68% median prediction improvement) compared to baseline scenarios. However, in this application, feature selection methods provide little practical value due to their limited performance gains and high computational cost. Smarter algorithm development supported by better computational environments will be needed before feature selection methods can reliably and efficiently improve predictive model performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗