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DOE OSTI2019

Spatial genetic analysis of coyotes in New York State

ABSTRACT The robust dispersal capability of the coyote ( Canis latrans ) would suggest a pattern of widespread gene flow across North America, yet historical legacies, dispersal barriers, and habitat affinities may produce or reinforce genetic structure. In the northeastern United States, some coyotes carry genetic signatures from past hybridization events with eastern wolves ( C. lupus lycaon ). These so‐called “coywolves” may have differential predation or competitive success compared with the western origin coyotes with whom they share the contemporary landscape. We sampled coyote populations from New York ( n = 156) and Wyoming, USA ( n = 8) in 2006–2007 and from South Carolina, USA, in 2010 and confirmed regional genetic structure among these coyote populations. Then, within the putative contact zone between the northeastern and western coyote colonization fronts (New York State), we evaluated evidence for broad‐ and fine‐sale genetic structure, and a genetic gradient among New York coyotes using a suite of spatial genetic analyses. Although broad‐scale analyses indicated New York coyotes were highly intermixed, subtle isolation‐by‐distance was detected, and local spatial autocorrelation indicated potentially shorter dispersal distances and larger group sizes for coyotes in the Northeastern Highlands (Adirondack Mountains and foothills). Yet we failed to detect a distinct contact zone between 2 coyote types in New York, indicating that local abundance and ecological context rather than genetic lineage are likely to determine the local ecological effects of coyotes in this region. We suggest that the contact zone between coyote colonization fronts has either eroded or moved further south. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.

Berkman, Leah K.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Heavy Metal Atmospheric Deposition Study in Moscow Region, Russia

The air quality in north-eastern part of Moscow region was evaluated by trace metals atmospheric deposition using moss Pleurozium schreberi as bioindicator. Thirty six elements were determined in analyzed samples by Neutron activation analysis and Atomic absorption spectrometry. Principal component analysis was used to identify and characterize different pollution sources. Maps showing the geographical distribution of the factor scores were built using ArcGis software. Median values of the elements studied were compared with data obtained for other regions in Russia. The present survey showed that industrial activity, thermal power plants and transport still have the largest anthropogenic impact on air pollution in studied region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Fungal Communities and Functional Guilds Shift Along an Elevational Gradient in the Southern Appalachian Mountains

Nitrogen deposition alters forest ecosystems particularly in high elevation, montane habitats where nitrogen deposition is greatest and continues to increase. We collected soils across an elevational (788–1940 m) gradient, encompassing both abiotic (soil chemistry) and biotic (vegetation community) gradients, at eight locations in the southern Appalachian Mountains of southwestern North Carolina and eastern Tennessee. We measured soil chemistry (total N, C, extractable PO 4 , soil pH, cation exchange capacity [ECEC], percent base saturation [% BS]) and dissected soil fungal communities using ITS2 metabarcode Illumina MiSeq sequencing. Total soil N, C, PO 4 , % BS, and pH increased with elevation and plateaued at approximately 1400 m, whereas ECEC linearly increased and C/N decreased with elevation. Fungal communities differed among locations and were correlated with all chemical variables, except PO 4 , whereas OTU richness increased with total N. Several ecological guilds (i.e., ectomycorrhizae, saprotrophs, plant pathogens) differed in abundance among locations; specifically, saprotroph abundance, primarily attributable to genus Mortierella, was positively correlated with elevation. Ectomycorrhizae declined with total N and soil pH and increased with total C and PO 4 where plant pathogens increased with total N and decreased with total C. Finally, our results demonstrate significant turnover in taxonomic and functional fungal groups across elevational gradients which facilitate future predictions on forest ecosystem change in the southern Appalachians as nitrogen deposition rates increase and regional temperature and precipitation regimes shift.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Ecological Processes Shaping Bulk Soil and Rhizosphere Microbiome Assembly in a Long-Term Amazon Forest-to-Agriculture Conversion

Forest-to-agriculture conversion has been identified as a major threat to soil biodiversity and soil processes resilience, although the consequences of long-term land use change to microbial community assembly and ecological processes have been often neglected. In this paper, we combined metagenomic approach with a large environmental dataset, to (i) identify the microbial assembly patterns and, (ii) to evaluate the ecological processes governing microbial assembly, in bulk soil and soybean rhizosphere, along a long-term forest-to-agriculture conversion chronosequence, in Eastern Amazon. We hypothesized that (i) microbial communities in bulk soil and rhizosphere have different assembly patterns and (ii) the weight of the four ecological processes governing assembly differs between bulk soil and rhizosphere and along the chronosequence in the same fraction. Community assembly in bulk soil fitted most the zero-sum multinomial (ZSM) neutral-based model, regardless of time. Low to intermediate dispersal was observed. Decreasing influence of abiotic factors was counterbalanced by increasing influence of biotic factors, as the chronosequence advanced. Undominated ecological processes of dispersal limitation and variable selection governing community assembly were observed in this soil fraction. For soybean rhizosphere, community assembly fitted most the lognormal niche-based model in all chronosequence areas. High dispersal and an increasing influence of abiotic factors coupled with a decreasing influence of biotic factors were found along the chronosequence. Thus, we found a dominant role of dispersal process governing microbial assembly with a secondary effect of homogeneous selection process, mainly driven by decreasing aluminum and increased cations saturation in soil solution, due to long-term no-till cropping. Together, our results indicate that long-term no-till lead community abundances in bulk soil to be in a transient and conditional state, while for soybean rhizosphere, community abundances reach a periodic and permanent distribution state. Dominant dispersal process in rhizosphere, coupled with homogeneous selection, brings evidences that soybean root system selects microbial taxa via trade-offs in order to keep functional resilience of soil processes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Methane Ebullition in Temperate Hydropower Reservoirs and Implications for US Policy on Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The United States is home to more than 87,000 dams, 2,198 of which are actively used for hydropower production. With the December 2015 consensus adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s Paris Agreement, it is imperative for the U.S. to accurately quantify greenhouse gas fluxes from its hydropower reservoirs. Methane ebullition, or methane bubbles originating from river or lake sediments, can account for nearly all of a reservoir’s methane emissions to the atmosphere. However, methane ebullition in hydropower reservoirs has been studied in only three temperate locations, none of which are in the United States. This study measures high ebullitive methane fluxes from two hydropower reservoirs in eastern Washington, synthesizes the known information about methane ebullition from tropical, boreal, and temperate hydropower reservoirs, and investigates the implications for U.S. hydropower management and growth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Complicated by Gastroduodenal Obstruction: Palliative Treatment with Metallic Stent Placement

Purpose: To evaluate the clinical effectiveness of self-expandable metallic stents in seven patients with malignant gastroduodenal obstruction caused by inoperable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: Seven patients with gastroduodenal obstruction caused by advanced HCC underwent metallic stent placement from 2003 to 2010. These patients had total dysphagia (n = 5) or were able to eat only liquids (n = 2) before stent placement. Patients had Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance scores of 2 or 3, and Child-Pugh classification B or C. Results: Stent placement was technically successful in all seven patients (100%) and clinically successful in six (86%). Five patients could eat a soft diet, and one patient tolerated regular diet after stent placement. Stent-related obstructive jaundice occurred in one patient. One patient had hematemesis 11 days after stent placement. Overall mean survival was 51 days (range, 10-119 days). Stent patency was preserved in six patients with clinical success until death. Conclusion: Placement of a covered self-expandable metallic stent may offer good palliation in patients with gastroduodenal obstruction due to advanced HCC.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2013

Phase II Study of Chemoembolization With Drug-Eluting Beads in Patients With Hepatic Neuroendocrine Metastases: High Incidence of Biliary Injury

To evaluate safety in an interim analysis of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) with doxorubicin-eluting beads (DEB) in 13 patients with hepatic metastases from neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) as part of a phase II trial. Institutional Review Board approval and informed consent were obtained. Thirteen patients completed preliminary safety analysis. Their mean age was 65 years, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status was 0/1, tumor burden range was 4-75 %, and mean targeted tumor size was 5.9 cm. Up to four DEB-TACE sessions (100-300 {mu}m beads loaded with {<=}100 mg doxorubicin) within 6 months were allowed. Tumor response was assessed by magnetic resonance imaging 1 month after treatment using contrast-enhancement [European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) and size Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST)] criteria. Safety was assessed by National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria. DEB-TACE was successfully performed in all 13 patients. At 1 month follow-up, there was a mean 12 % decrease in tumor size (p < 0.0003) and a 56 % decrease in tumor enhancement (p < 0.0001). By EASL criteria, the targeted lesion objective response rate was 78 %. Grade 3 to 4 toxicities were fatigue (23 %), increased alanine amino transferase (15 %), hyperglycemia (15 %), and abdominal pain (8 %). Seven patients developed bilomas (54 %); all of these patients had multiple small (<4 cm) lesions. Subsequently, four underwent percutaneous drainage, three for abscess formation and one for symptoms related to mass effect. Although biloma and liver abscess are known risks after TACE, the high incidence in our study population was unexpected and forced interruption of the trial. Although this occurred in a small group of patients, we have changed our technique and patient selection as a result of these findings, thus allowing resumption of the trial.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2013

Yttrium-90 Radioembolization for Unresectable Standard-chemorefractory Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: Survival, Efficacy, and Safety Study

To assess the overall survival, efficacy, and safety of radioembolization with yttrium-90 (Y90) for unresectable standard-chemorefractory intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). Patients with unresectable standard-chemorefractory ICC treated with Y90 were studied. Survival was calculated from the date of first Y90 procedure. Tumor response was assessed with the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors criteria on follow-up computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging scans. National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria (NCI CTCAE), version 3, were used for complications. Statistical analysis was performed by the Kaplan-Meier estimator by the log rank test. Nineteen patients underwent a total of 24 resin-based Y90 treatments. Median survival from the time of diagnosis and first Y90 procedure was 752 {+-} 193 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 374-1130] and 345 {+-} 128 (95 % CI 95-595) days, respectively. Median survival with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status 1 (n = 15) and ECOG performance status 2 (n = 4) was 450 {+-} 190 (95 % CI 78-822) and 345 {+-} 227 (95 % CI 0-790) days, respectively (p = .214). Patients with extrahepatic metastasis (n = 11) had a median survival of 404 {+-} 309 (95 % CI 0-1010) days versus 345 {+-} 117 (95 % CI 115-575) days for patients without metastasis (n = 8) (p = .491). No mortality was reported within 30 days from first Y90 radioembolization. One patient developed grade 3 thrombocytopenia as assessed by NCI CTCAE. Fatigue and transient abdominal pain were observed in 4 (21 %) and 6 (32 %) patients, respectively. Y90 radioembolization is effective for unresectable standard-chemorefractory ICC.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Survival Analysis of Advanced HCC Treated with Radioembolization: Comparing Impact of Clinical Performance Status Versus Vascular Invasion/Metastases

PurposeIn this study, we aim to compare the effects of prognostic indicators on survival analysis for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) C patients undergoing yttrium-90 radioembolization (Y-90).MethodsA prospectively acquired database (2003–2017) for BCLC C hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients that underwent radioembolization with Y-90 was searched. The criteria for BCLC C status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (PS) of 1 or 2, metastases, and/or portal vein thrombosis (PVT)) were recorded. Kaplan–Meier survival analyses were performed from the date of the first radioembolization with Y-90, censored to curative treatment, to determine median overall survival (OS). Cox regression hazards model was used for multivariate analyses. Significance was set at P < 0.05.Results547 BCLC C patients treated with radioembolization with Y-90 had a median OS of 10.7 months (range: 9.5–12.9). 43% (233 of 547) patients classified as BCLC C solely by their ECOG PS had a median OS of 19.4 months (14.7–23.7); 57% (314 of 547) patients with PVT/metastases had a median OS of 7.7 months (6.7–8.7). On multivariate analysis, ECOG PS was not found to be a statistically significant prognostic indicator of OS in BCLC C whereas metastases and PVT exhibited hazards ratios (95%CI) of 0.51 (0.38–0.69) and 0.49 (0.38–0.63), respectively (P < 0.0001).ConclusionPatients classified as BCLC C due to ECOG PS 1 demonstrated longer survival when compared to those presenting with PVT, metastases and/or ECOG PS 2. Hence, ECOG PS 1, as an isolated variable, may not be a true indicator of advanced disease.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Spatial and Temporal Variability of the Clear Convective Boundary Layer at the ARM SGP Supersite

The convective boundary layer (CBL), also known as the mixing layer, constitutes the critical lower segment of the atmosphere that significantly influences daily human activities. The growing demand for precise weather forecasts is driven by the requirements of agriculture, transportation, and routine societal functions. Here, to enhance understanding of the CBL, this study investigates the spatiotemporal variability in the CBL and its controlling factors using four-year Doppler lidar, surface flux, and profiling measurements at five ARM Southern Great Plains sites within a 100 km radius. This investigation utilizes data collected exclusively under clear-sky conditions or scattered low-cloud conditions. Results reveal significant spatial differences in CBL evolutions. Daily mixing layer heights (MLHs) vary up to 1 km (30% of the mean) in late afternoon. There is a clear east–west contrast: western sites (C1, E32, E37) exhibit higher summer MLH (1.9–2.1 km) and vertical velocity variances (1.0–1.2 m 2 s −2 ) than eastern sites (1.6–1.8 km), reversing in winter. Temporally, the MLH peaks at 70% of the sunrise–sunset interval, the lagging heat flux (HF) peaks at 50%; and the seasonal MLH maxima lag the HF by approximately one month, influenced by nighttime PBL (planetary boundary layer) properties. The HF and lower tropospheric stability are the main factors of influence for the CBL, but site-specific dependencies highlight the critical roles of local factors, underscoring the need for including them in CBL modeling.

ARM SGP site↗

DOE OSTI2012

A multi-data set comparison of the vertical structure of temperature variability and change over the Arctic during the past 100 years

We compare the daily, interannual, and decadal variability and trends in the thermal structure of the Arctic troposphere using eight observation-based, vertically resolved data sets, four of which have data prior to 1948. Comparisons on the daily scale between historical reanalysis data and historical upper-air observations were performed for Svalbard for the cold winters 1911/1912 and 1988/1989, the warm winters 1944/1945 and 2005/2006, and the International Geophysical Year 1957/1958. Excellent agreement is found at mid-tropospheric levels. Near the ground and at the tropopause level, however, systematic differences are identified. On the interannual time scale, the correlations between all data sets are high, but there are systematic biases in terms of absolute values as well as discrepancies in the magnitude of the variability. The causes of these differences are discussed. While none of the data sets individually may be suitable for trend analysis, consistent features can be identified from analyzing all data sets together. To illustrate this, we examine trends and 20-year averages for those regions and seasons that exhibit large sea-ice changes and have enough data for comparison. In the summertime Pacific Arctic and the autumn eastern Canadian Arctic, the lower tropospheric temperature anomalies for the recent two decades are higher than in any previous 20-year period. In contrast, mid-tropospheric temperatures of the European Arctic in the wintertime of the 1920s and 1930s may have reached values as high as those of the late 20th and early 21st centuries.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2012

Impact of climate change on mid-twenty-first century growing seasons in Africa

Changes in growing seasons for 2041-2060 across Africa are projected using a regional climate model at 90-km resolution, and confidence in the predictions is evaluated. The response is highly regional over West Africa, with decreases in growing season days up to 20% in the western Guinean coast and some regions to the east experiencing 5-10% increases. A longer growing season up to 30% in the central and eastern Sahel is predicted, with shorter seasons in parts of the western Sahel. In East Africa, the short rains (boreal fall) growing season is extended as the Indian Ocean warms, but anomalous midtropospheric moisture divergence and a northward shift of Sahel rainfall severely curtails the long rains (boreal spring) season. Enhanced rainfall in January and February increases the growing season in the Congo basin by 5-15% in association with enhanced southwesterly moisture transport from the tropical Atlantic. In Angola and the southern Congo basin, 40-80% reductions in austral spring growing season days are associated with reduced precipitation and increased evapotranspiration. Large simulated reductions in growing season over southeastern Africa are judged to be inaccurate because they occur due to a reduction in rainfall in winter which is over-produced in the model. Only small decreases in the actual growing season are simulated when evapotranspiration increases in the warmer climate. The continent-wide changes in growing season are primarily the result of increased evapotranspiration over the warmed land, changes in the intensity and seasonal cycle of the thermal low, and warming of the Indian Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

The ENSO-Australian rainfall teleconnection in reanalysis and CMIP5

Australian rainfall is strongly influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The relationship between ENSO and rainfall in eastern Australia is non-linear; the magnitude of La Niña events has a greater effect on rainfall than does the magnitude of El Niño events, and the cause of the non-linearity is unclear from previous work. The twentieth century reanalysis succeeds in capturing the asymmetric ENSO-rainfall relationship. In the reanalysis the asymmetry is strongly related to moisture availability in the south-west Pacific whereas wind flow is of less importance. Some global climate models (GCMs) in the CMIP5 archive capture the asymmetric nature of the ENSO-rainfall relationship whilst others do not. Differences in thermodynamic processes and their relationships with ENSO are the primary cause of variability in model performance. Analysis of an atmosphere-only run of a GCM which fails to capture the non-linear ENSO-rainfall relationship is also conducted. The atmospheric run forced by observed SSTs shows no significant improvement in the ENSO-rainfall relationship over the corresponding coupled model run in the CMIP5 archive. This result suggests that some models are failing to capture the atmospheric teleconnection between the tropical Pacific and Australia, and both this and a realistic representation of oceanic ENSO characteristics are required for coupled models to accurately capture the ENSO-rainfall teleconnection. These findings have implications for the study of rainfall projections in the region.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2014

Tropical Pacific response to continental ice sheet topography

The last glacial maximum was marked by maximum land ice extent and lowest greenhouse gases concentration during the last ice age. We investigate the effect of glacial continental ice sheet topography on the large-scale tropical ocean–atmosphere climate, in particular the tropical Pacific, in an intermediate complexity coupled model. Increasing the thickness of continental ice sheets causes a southward displaced Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a strengthening (weakening) of northern (southern) hemisphere winter Hadley cell. The equatorial zonal sea surface temperature gradient weakened with an increased continental ice sheets thickness, the reduction being caused by cooling in the western equatorial Pacific and warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The evolution of the tropical climate with changing ice thickness has distinct quasi-linear and nonlinear parts. While the linear part is a direct response to the ice topographic changes, the nonlinear part was a finding of the tropical thermocline adjustment. Our analysis of a fully-coupled transient deglacial simulation strongly indicates the dominant role of ice sheet topography in determining the deglacial evolution of the simulated Pacific climate. The thickness of continental ice sheet, separate from ice albedo effect, has significant impact on the tropical ocean–atmosphere climate in particular with the meridional displacement in the Pacific ITCZ. The altered circulation states seen in the model may aid understanding of the relationship between tropical and high-latitude climate records in glacial-interglacial cycles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

A Holocene East Asian winter monsoon record at the southern edge of the Gobi Desert and its comparison with a transient simulation

The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) exhibits significant variability on intraseasonal, interannual, and interdecadal time scales and the variability can be extended to Holocene centennial and millennial scales. Previous Holocene EAWM proxy data records, which were mostly located in Central, Eastern and Southern China, did not show a consistent Holocene EAWM history. Therefore, it is difficult to provide insights into mechanisms of the long-term winter monsoon variability on the basis of the records. Eolian sediments at the southern edge of the Gobi Desert, Western China, are sensitive to the EAWM changes and less affected by the East Asian summer monsoon due to an obstruction of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Here, this paper presents a comparison between a well-dated Holocene EAWM record and coupled climate model simulations, so as to explore physical processes and influencing factors of the Holocene EAWM. Sediment samples from two Holocene eolian sedimentary sections [Huangyanghe (a) and Huangyanghe (b)] were acquired at the southern edge of the Gobi Desert. Chronologies were established based on twenty bulk organic matter AMS 14 C ages and five pollen concentrates AMS 14 C ages. Proxy data, including grain-size, total organic carbon, magnetic susceptibility and carbonate content were obtained from the two eolian sections. The grain-size standard deviation model was applied to determine components sensitive to variability of the Holocene EAWM. After a comparison of environmentally-sensitive grain-size components and proxy data, the 20–200 μm component at the Huangyanghe (a) and the 20–159 μm component at the Huangyanghe (b) section were selected as indicators of the Holocene EAWM, which show a strong early Holocene winter monsoon and a decline of the winter monsoon since the mid-Holocene. We also present equilibrium and transient simulations of the climate evolution for the Holocene using a state-of-art coupled climate model: the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). Indices for the Holocene EAWM were calculated and are consistent with the reconstructed Holocene EAWM intensity. The simulations indicate that orbital forcing effects on the land-sea temperature and sea level pressure contrast can account for the observed EAWM trends. Other forcings that were present in the early Holocene, including the remnant Laurentide ice sheet and meltwater forcing in the North Atlantic, were not responsible for the Holocene trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

The strength of the tropical inversion and its response to climate change in 18 CMIP5 models

In this work, we examine the tropical inversion strength, measured by the estimated inversion strength (EIS), and its response to climate change in 18 models associated with phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5). While CMIP5 models generally capture the geographic distribution of observed EIS, they systematically underestimate it off the west coasts of continents, due to a warm bias in sea surface temperature. The negative EIS bias may contribute to the low bias in tropical low-cloud cover in the same models. Idealized perturbation experiments reveal that anthropogenic forcing leads directly to EIS increases, independent of “temperature-mediated” EIS increases associated with long-term oceanic warming. This fast EIS response to anthropogenic forcing is strongly impacted by nearly instantaneous continental warming. The temperature-mediated EIS change has contributions from both uniform and non-uniform oceanic warming. The substantial EIS increases in uniform oceanic warming simulations are due to warming with height exceeding the moist adiabatic lapse rate in tropical warm pools. EIS also increases in fully-coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations where CO 2 concentration is instantaneously quadrupled, due to both fast and temperature-mediated changes. The temperature-mediated EIS change varies with tropical warming in a nonlinear fashion: The EIS change per degree tropical warming is much larger in the early stage of the simulations than in the late stage, due to delayed warming in the eastern parts of the subtropical oceans. Given the importance of EIS in regulating tropical low-cloud cover, this suggests that the tropical low-cloud feedback may also be nonlinear.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Understanding the El Niño-like Oceanic Response in the Tropical Pacific to Global Warming

The enhanced central and eastern Pacific SST warming and the associated ocean processes under global warming are investigated using the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2). The tropical SST warming pattern in the coupled CESM can be faithfully reproduced by the POP2 forced with surface fluxes computed using the aerodynamic bulk formula. By prescribing the wind stress and/or wind speed through the bulk formula, the effects of wind stress change and/or the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback are isolated and their linearity is evaluated in this ocean-alone setting. Result shows that, although the weakening of the equatorial easterlies contributes positively to the El Niño-like SST warming, 80% of which can be simulated by the POP2 without considering the effects of wind change in both mechanical and thermodynamic fluxes. This result points to the importance of the air-sea thermal interaction and the relative feebleness of the ocean dynamical process in the El Niño-like equatorial Pacific SST response to global warming. On the other hand, the wind stress change is found to play a dominant role in the oceanic response in the tropical Pacific, accounting for most of the changes in the equatorial ocean current system and thermal structures, including the weakening of the surface westward currents, the enhancement of the near-surface stratification and the shoaling of the equatorial thermocline. Interestingly, greenhouse gas warming in the absence of wind stress change and WES feedback also contributes substantially to the changes at the subsurface equatorial Pacific. Further, this warming impact can be largely replicated by an idealized ocean experiment forced by a uniform surface heat flux, whereby, arguably, a purest form of oceanic dynamical thermostat is revealed.

El Niño-like response↗

DOE OSTI2016

ENSO-driven energy budget perturbations in observations and CMIP models

Various observation-based datasets are employed to robustly quantify changes in ocean heat content (OHC), anomalous ocean–atmosphere energy exchanges and atmospheric energy transports during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These results are used as a benchmark to evaluate the energy pathways during ENSO as simulated by coupled climate model runs from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives. The models are able to qualitatively reproduce observed patterns of ENSO-related energy budget variability to some degree, but key aspects are seriously biased. Area-averaged tropical Pacific OHC variability associated with ENSO is greatly underestimated by all models because of strongly biased responses of net radiation at top-of-the-atmosphere to ENSO. The latter are related to biases of mean convective activity in the models and project on surface energy fluxes in the eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone region. Moreover, models underestimate horizontal and vertical OHC redistribution in association with the generally too weak Bjerknes feedback, leading to a modeled ENSO affecting a too shallow layer of the Pacific. Vertical links between SST and OHC variability are too weak even in models driven with observed winds, indicating shortcomings of the ocean models. Furthermore, modeled teleconnections as measured by tropical Atlantic OHC variability are too weak and the tropical zonal mean ENSO signal is strongly underestimated or even completely missing in most of the considered models. In conclusion, results suggest that attempts to infer insight about climate sensitivity from ENSO-related variability are likely to be hampered by biases in ENSO in CMIP simulations that do not bear a clear link to future changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗