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DOE OSTI2025

Signal processing and spectral modeling for the BeEST experiment

The Beryllium Electron capture in Superconducting Tunnel junctions (BeEST) experiment searches for evidence of heavy neutrino mass eigenstates in the nuclear electron capture decay of 7 Be by precisely measuring the recoil energy of the 7 Li daughter. In Phase III, the BeEST experiment has been scaled from a singl superconducting tunnel junction (STJ) sensor to a 36-pixel array to increase sensitivity and mitigate gamma-induced backgrounds. Phase III also uses a new continuous data acquisition system that greatly increases the flexibility for signal processing and data cleaning. Here, we have developed procedures for signal processing and spectral fitting that are sufficiently robust to be automated for large datasets. Furthermore, this article presents the optimized procedures before unblinding the majority of the Phase III dataset to search for physics beyond the standard model.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗

DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Metering Infrastructure for Distribution Planning and Operation: Closing the Loop on Grid-Edge Visibility

In the recent history of electric utilities, the potential to have visibility of the grid edge is gaining significance for the reliable planning and operation of a clean energy smart grid. Before the recent large-scale customer adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs), distribution networks were planned with a simpler fit-and-forget philosophy. The importance of customer-sited DERs to achieve climate change goals marks a major shift for utility operations. Changes to traditional fit-and-forget planning paradigms require better availability of grid-edge data. Smart metering is an enterprise-wide tool that is enabling visibility when and where it has been most needed. As of 2020, the rollout of smart metering, or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), had reached more than 100 million meters in the United States, and nearly half of all electricity customers are now equipped with a smart meter (Figure 1). Smart meters are quickly becoming a ubiquitous data capture feature of smart grids. AMI enables utilities to record and measure electricity usage and power-flow metrics at a minimum of hourly intervals and at least once a day. At a minimum, AMI enables interval metering, automatic meter reading enabling accurate and time-interval billing, and the ability to provide feedback on customer energy consumption.

advanced metering infrastructure↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dataset_for_Molecular_Motion_Below_the_Glass_Transition_A_Solid-State_NMR_Study_of_Siloxane_Polymer_Dynamics Study

This dataset contains solid-state 1H and 13C NMR relaxometry data, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) data, and size exclusion chromatography (SEC/GPC) data supporting the study of sub-glass-transition (sub-Tg) molecular dynamics in a composition- and sequence-controlled series of diphenyl-substituted polysiloxanes (PDMS, 14Ph, 33Ph, 50Ph, 67Ph, and 100Ph; 0–100% diphenylsiloxane content by mole).All solid-state NMR data were acquired on a 200 MHz Bruker Avance III HD spectrometer using a static 7 mm HX probe or a 4 mm HX probe under 4 kHz magic-angle spinning. Raw Bruker TopSpin experiment folders are included for: (1) variable-temperature 1H lineshape measurements used to determine linewidth (FWHM) as a function of temperature across the glass transition; (2) 1H T1 (saturation recovery with solid-echo detection), probing nanosecond-scale dynamics near the 1H Larmor frequency; (3) 1H T1rho (direct spin-lock, 62.5 kHz), probing microsecond-scale segmental dynamics; (4) 13C-detected Lee–Goldburg cross-polarization 1H T1rho (LGCPH T1rho) for 33Ph and 50Ph, resolving aromatic and aliphatic proton environments; and (5) 13C T1 relaxation for 33Ph and 50Ph. Differential scanning calorimetry data (TA Instruments DSC 25, −150 to +120 °C, up to +300 °C for 100Ph, 10 °C/min) are included for all six compositions and support the glass-transition temperatures in Table 1 and Figure 1. Size exclusion chromatography data (Agilent 1200 Series, PL-Gel 300 mixed-C column, THF mobile phase, polystyrene calibration standards) are included for the three synthesized copolymers (33Ph, 50Ph, 67Ph) and support the number-average molecular weights in Table 1. Processed data include per-composition relaxation-time summaries (Excel), curve-fitting and Bloembergen-Purcell-Pound (BPP) model analysis notebooks (Jupyter/Python), and Igor Pro (.pxp) master files used to generate the manuscript's figures.

Bloembergen-Purcell-Pound theory↗

DOE OSTI2024

Isovector Axial Charge and Form Factors of Nucleons from Lattice QCD

A survey of the calculations of the isovector axial vector form factor of the nucleon using lattice QCD is presented. Attention is paid to statistical and systematic uncertainties, in particular those due to excited state contributions. Based on a comparison of results from various collaborations, a case is made that lattice results are consistent within 10%. A similar level of uncertainty is in the axial charge gAu−d, the mean squared axial charge radius ⟨rA2⟩, the induced pseudoscalar charge gP∗, and the pion–nucleon coupling gπNN. Even with the current methodology, a significant reduction in errors is expected over the next few years with higher statistics data on more ensembles closer to the physical point. Lattice QCD results for the form factor GA(Q2) are compatible with those obtained from the recent MINERνA experiment but lie 2–3σ higher than the phenomenological extraction from the old ν–deuterium bubble chamber scattering data for Q2>0.3 GeV2. Current data show that the dipole ansatz does not have enough parameters to fit the form factor over the range 0≤Q2≤1 GeV2, whereas even a z2 truncation of the z expansion or a low order Padé are sufficient. Looking ahead, lattice QCD calculations will provide increasingly precise results over the range 0≤Q2≤1 GeV2, and MINERνA-like experiments will extend the range to Q2∼2 GeV2 or higher. Nevertheless, improvements in lattice methods to (i) further control excited state contributions and (ii) extend the range of Q2 are needed.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Constraining the Milky Way Mass Profile with Phase-space Distribution of Satellite Galaxies

We estimate the Milky Way (MW) halo properties using satellite kinematic data including the latest measurements from Gaia DR2. With a simulation-based 6D phase-space distribution function (DF) of satellite kinematics, we can infer halo properties efficiently and without bias, and handle the selection function and measurement errors rigorously in the Bayesian framework. Applying our DF from the EAGLE simulation to 28 satellites, we obtain an MW halo mass of $M={1.23}_{-0.18}^{+0.21}\times {10}^{12}{M}_{\odot }$ and a concentration of $c={9.4}_{-2.1}^{+2.8}$ with the prior based on the M–c relation. The inferred mass profile is consistent with previous measurements but with better precision and reliability due to the improved methodology and data. Potential improvement is illustrated by combining satellite data and stellar rotation curves. Using our EAGLE DF and best-fit MW potential, we provide much more precise estimates of the kinematics for those satellites with uncertain measurements. Compared to the EAGLE DF, which matches the observed satellite kinematics very well, the DF from the semi-analytical model based on the dark-matter-only simulation Millennium II (SAM-MII) over-represents satellites with small radii and velocities. We attribute this difference to less disruption of satellites with small pericenter distances in the SAM-MII simulation. Finally, by varying the disruption rate of such satellites in this simulation, we estimate a ~5% scatter in the inferred MW halo mass among hydrodynamics-based simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Thermal and Kinematic Sunyaev–Zeldovich Effect in Galaxy Clusters and Filaments Using Multifrequency Temperature Maps of the Cosmic Microwave Background: A399–A401 Cluster Pair Case Study

We present a multifrequency and multi-instrument methodology to study the physical properties of galaxy clusters and cosmic filaments using cosmic microwave background observations. Our approach enables simultaneous measurement of both the thermal (tSZ) and kinematic Sunyaev–Zeldovich (kSZ) effects, incorporates relativistic corrections, and models astrophysical foregrounds such as thermal dust emission. We do this by jointly fitting a single physical model across multiple maps from multiple instruments at different frequencies, rather than fitting a model to a single Compton-y map. We demonstrate the success of this method by fitting the A399–A401 galaxy cluster pair and filament system using archival data from the Planck satellite and new, targeted deep data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope, covering 11 different frequencies over 14 maps from 30 GHz to 545 GHz. Our tSZ results are consistent with previous work using Compton-y maps. We measure the line-of-sight peculiar velocities of the cluster–filament system using the kSZ effect and find statistical uncertainties on individual cluster peculiar velocities of ≲600 km s −1 , which are competitive with current state-of-the-art measurements. Additionally, we measure the optical depth of the filament component with a signal-to-noise of 8.5σ and reveal hints of its morphology. This modular approach is well-suited for application to future instruments across a wide range of millimeter and submillimeter wavebands.

Gill, Ajay S. [National Research Council of Canada↗

DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of Unpolarised p+p¿ Photoproduction with the GlueX Experiment

This thesis presents measurements of spin-density matrix elements in unpolarised p+p? photoproduction on a proton target. The dominant resonance contribution to the dipion system is the r(770) meson. Due to the large production cross section for this resonance, a valid comparison can be made between the obtained final results and r(770) spin-density matrix elements measured previously with other experiments. The measurement was performed over the 3:0 ? 11:6 GeV beam energy regime, which is a more extensive energy range than has ever been studied previously for the r(770). Results were obtained by analysing data from the GlueX experiment based at Jefferson Lab. Extended maximum likelihood fits were applied to extract three spin-density matrix elements using Markov chain Monte Carlo based parameter estimations. This was performed using various binning configurations to probe the energy, mass, and four-momentum transfer dependence of the determined physics observables. Spin-density matrix elements are shown to be consistent with the model of s-channel helicity conservation at low ?t. The effects of pomeron and f2 exchanges are clearly visible in the energy dependence of the measured observables. These observations provide valuable insights into the relative strengths of both processes as a function of the photon energy, and may enable theorists to disentangle the f2=P coupling ratio. Spin-density matrix elements are seen to be highly dependent on the reconstructed resonance mass. This observation is likely to be a result of non-resonant S-wave background processes, and emphasises the need for a more detailed model of the p+p? angular distribution that considers all of the competing angular momentum components that contribute to the measured final state. The statistical precision of measurements performed for this thesis surpass what was achievable in previous studies of the r(770) by several orders of magnitude. Studies of the energy and four-momentum transfer dependence, and insights into the effects of non r(770) background contributions provide valuable input for production models. This will help inform the choice of wave-sets used for partial wave analyses, supporting GlueX in its search for exotic hybrid meson states.

Fitches, James↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing Geant4 Hadronic Models

Geant4, the leading detector simulation toolkit used in high energy physics, employs a set of physics models to simulate interactions of particles with matter across a wide range of energies. These models, especially the hadronic ones, rely largely on directly measured cross-sections and inclusive characteristics, and use physically motivated parameters. However, they generally aim to cover a broad range of possible simulation tasks and may not always be optimized for a particular process or a given material. The Geant4 collaboration recently made many parameters of the models accessible via a configuration interface. This opens a possibility to fit simulated distributions to the thin target experimental datasets and extract optimal values of the model parameters and the associated uncertainties. Such efforts are currently undertaken by the Geant4 collaboration with the goal of offering alternative sets of model parameters, also known as "tunes", for certain applications. The effort should subsequently lead to more accurate estimates of the systematic errors in physics measurements given the detector simulation role in performing the physics measurements. Results of the study are presented to illustrate how Geant4 model parameters can be optimized through applying fitting techniques, to improve the agreement between the Geant4 and the experimental data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Strong Lensing Cosmology with Population-level Calibrated Neural Ratio Estimation

Strong gravitational lensing contains key information about cosmic acceleration. Modern and next-generation galaxy imaging surveys are expected to provide high-quality data on $\mathcal{O}(10^5)$ galaxy-galaxy lensing systems. The plethora and complexity of the data are likely to present computational challenges for parameter inference methods for fitting high-dimensional likelihoods, which are often analytically intractable. Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE) efficiently computes individual likelihood ratios that can be combined into population-level posteriors. We use simulations to study the capacity of NRE to jointly predict the dark energy equation-of-state parameter $w$ and the total matter density $Ω_{m}$ from lensing images and companion spectroscopic information. We also introduce a post hoc posterior coverage calibration procedure that mitigates the model overconfidence that is typically found in neural density estimation applications. Our experiments show that the errors on both parameters decrease with increasing inference population sizes. In particular, for 100 lenses in a standard $Λ$CDM Universe, our calibrated NRE model achieves median fractional uncertainty of $22.8\%$ in $w$ and $2.9\%$ in $Ω_{m}$. This proof of concept demonstrates a potentially scalable approach for efficient cosmological parameter inference with large populations of galaxy-scale lenses observed in future surveys.

Jarugula, Sreevani [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000253867↗

DOE OSTI2021

Particle transport constraints via Bayesian spectral fitting of multiple atomic lines

Optimized operation of fusion devices demands detailed understanding of plasma transport, a problem that must be addressed with advances in both measurement and data analysis techniques. In this work, we adopt Bayesian inference methods to determine experimental particle transport, leveraging opportunities from high-resolution He-like ion spectra in a tokamak plasma. The Bayesian spectral fitting code is used to analyze resonance (w), forbidden (z), intercombination (x, y), and satellite (k, j) lines of He-like Ca following laser blow-off injections on Alcator C-Mod. This offers powerful transport constraints since these lines depend differently on electron temperature and density, but also differ in their relation to Li-like, He-like, and H-like ion densities, often the dominant Ca charge states over most of the C-Mod plasma radius. Using synthetic diagnostics based on the AURORA package, we demonstrate improved effectiveness of impurity transport inferences when spectroscopic data from a progressively larger number of lines are included.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Particle transport constraints via Bayesian spectral fitting of multiple atomic lines

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spectrophotometric determination of the stability of La hydroxyl complexes at near neutral to alkaline pH from 25 to 75 °C

The hydrolysis of rare earth elements (REE) potentially controls their mobility during fluid-rock interaction in a broad range of pH and temperature conditions. However, there is still a lack of thermodynamic data for modeling accurately the stability of REE hydroxyl complexes in hydrothermal aqueous fluids. Here, in this study, UV–Vis spectrophotometric experiments were conducted from 25 to 75 °C in near-neutral to alkaline NaOH-bearing aqueous solutions with varying lanthanum (La) concentrations (0 to ∼0.23 mmol/kg). The color indicator m-cresol purple was used to determine in situ pH and derive the average OH− ligand number ($\overrightarrow{n}$) and formation constants for the La hydroxyl complexes (LaOH 2+ , La(OH) 2 + , and La(OH) 3 0 ). From 25 to 50 °C, $\overrightarrow{n}$ ranges between ∼1 and 2 at pH from 7.0 to 9.3. At 75 °C, $\overrightarrow{n}$ ranges between ∼1.5 and 3 at pH from 6.3 to 8.8. These results suggest the predominance of LaOH 2+ and La(OH) 2 + complexes from 25 to 50 °C, and an increased predominance of La(OH) 3 0 at 75 °C. The cumulative formation constants (β n °, n = 1 to 3) are derived for the reaction La 3+ + nOH − = La(OH) n 3-n , and fitted between 25 and 250 °C by combining the UV–Vis and literature solubility data. The resulting logβ n ° are expressed as function of temperature (T in Kelvin): logβ 1 ° = −1.786 + 0.0133 T + 1.049·10 3 /T; logβ 2 ° = −5.797 + 0.0267 T + 2.713·10 3 /T; logβ 3 ° = 6.435 + 0.0223 T + 512.7/T. A comparison between these new fits and existing extrapolations using the Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers equation of state indicates significant differences in the predicted hydrolysis of La. The latter extrapolations should therefore be updated for the hydrolysis of REE.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Elastic scattering in the 12 N + 197 Au system at 𝐸 lab = 70 MeV

Halo structure is an interesting exotic configuration developed in some light weakly bound nuclei, where a valence particle orbits a nuclear core. Signatures of halo structure can be observed in the angular distributions of the elastic scattering induced by these nuclei at energies around the Coulomb barrier. There are some well-studied reactions with neutron-rich halo nuclei, such as 6 He and 11 Li . However, the information is scarce on the proton-rich side. Recent works confirm the halo structure in the 8B nuclei but still lack more experimental studies for other proton-halo candidates, such as 12 N and 17 F. In this work, we report experimental data for the elastic scattering of 12 N on 197 Au target at 𝐸 lab = 70 MeV. The 12 N is a proton-rich nucleus with proton separation energy 𝑆 𝑝 = 600 keV, which is higher than the 8 B (𝑆 𝑝 = 137 keV) and almost the same as the 17 F (𝑆 𝑝 = 601 keV). Data were obtained at the Cyclotron Institute of Texas A&M University where the 12 N radioactive beam was produced by the momentum achromatic recoil spectrometer. The calculation of the optical model was used to fit the measured angular distribution for the elastic scattering and to obtain the reaction cross section 𝜎 𝑅 . We also performed continuum discretized coupled-channel calculations to compare with the experimental data. The angular distribution of the elastic cross sections exhibits a suppression of the Fresnel peak. From the fitting of the optical model, we obtain the total reaction cross section, 𝜎 𝑅 = 1269 ± 41 mb. The agreement between the CDCC calculation and the experimental elastic scattering data is limited and the breakdown does not exhaust the measured 𝜎 𝑅 . The resulting reduced reaction cross section 𝜎 Red for 12 N + 197 Au is large and comparable to the one obtained for the 8 B + 208 Pb system. This suggests a strong decoupling of the valence proton from the core because of the low binding energy and a dynamic polarization effect. Here, more research is required to estimate the contribution of core excitation.

Elastic scattering reactions↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Milky Way’s bulge star formation history as constrained from its bimodal chemical abundance distribution

ABSTRACT We conduct a quantitative analysis of the star formation history (SFH) of the Milky Way’s (MW) bulge by exploiting the constraining power of its stellar [Fe/H] and [Mg/Fe] distribution functions. Using Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment survey data, we confirm the previously established bimodal [Mg/Fe]–[Fe/H] distribution within 3 kpc of the inner Galaxy. To fit the chemical bimodal distribution, we use a simple but flexible star formation framework, which assumes two distinct stages of gas accretion and star formation, and systematically evaluate a wide multidimensional parameter space. We find that the data favour a three-phase SFH that consists of an initial starburst, followed by a rapid star formation quenching episode, and a lengthy, quiescent secular evolution phase. The metal-poor, high-α bulge stars ([Fe/H] < 0.0 and [Mg/Fe] > 0.15) are formed rapidly (<2 Gyr) during the early starburst. The density gap between the high- and low-α sequences is due to the quenching process. The metal-rich, low-α population ([Fe/H] > 0.0 and [Mg/Fe] < 0.15) then accumulates gradually through inefficient star formation during the secular phase. This is qualitatively consistent with the early SFH of the inner disc. Given this scenario, a notable fraction of young stars (age <5 Gyr) is expected to persist in the bulge. Combined with extragalactic observations, these results suggest that a rapid star formation quenching process is responsible for bimodal distributions in both the MW’s stellar populations and in the general galaxy population and thus plays a critical role in galaxy evolution.

Lian, Jianhui↗

DOE OSTI2023

Management and International Sorption Model Collaboration (M4SF-23LL010302062-NEA-TDB)

This progress report (Level 4 Milestone Number M4SF-23LL010302062) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Crystalline International Collaborations Activity Number SF-23LL01030206. The activity is focused on our long-term commitment of engaging our partners in international nuclear waste repository research. This includes participation in the Nuclear Energy Agency Thermochemical Database (NEA-TDB) Project and development of methodologies for integrating US and international thermodynamic databases for use in SFWST Generic Disposal System Assessment (GDSA) efforts. A continuing focus for FY23 efforts has been to support the US participation in the NEA-TDB effort (Mavrik Zavarin replaced Cindy Atkins-Duffin on the NEA-TDB Management Board (MB) and Executive Group (EG)) and developing mechanisms for integration of NEA-TDB thermochemical data with LLNL’s SUPCRTNE thermodynamic database that supports the SFWST GDSA activities. This effort is coordinated with the Argillite work package SUPCRTNE database development efforts. The goal is to provide a downloadable database that will be hosted on a LLNL website which integrates NEA-TDB data into the LLNL SUPCRTNE database where appropriate. As part of our international activities, we continue our effort to integrate international sorption databases into L-SCIE (Zavarin et al., 2022b). We presented opportunities to include sorption in the next phase of NEA-TDB efforts at the April 2023 EG meeting in Paris. FY23 efforts focused on ensuring interoperable database development across multiple international database development activities. The overall goal is to produce an open source database that can be shared and integrated with multiple nuclear waste programs internationally and harness modern data science workflows and algorithms to incorporate these new approaches into reactive transport and performance assessment models. In collaboration with our Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf partners, we recently demonstrated the power of FAIR open source databases by fitting iron oxide (hydrous ferric oxide, goethite, hematite, and magnetite) protolysis constants to all available L-SCIE data. The results were submitted as a manuscript to J. Colloid Interface Science. This work will inform future metal sorption studies on a variety of iron oxides in order to discern the most appropriate acidity constants and surface complexation modeling constructs to account for pH-dependent mineral surface charge behavior. This work also explored automated surface complexation model development workflows in order to generate higher throughput model input files for a more facile incorporation into GDSA activities.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2020

Radioactive Source Localization via Bayesian Particle Filter

In the event of a misplaced radioactive source or other emergency situation, measuring a radiation field, mapping its distribution, and determining a source location are essential tasks to ameliorating the situation. However, radiation fields may be extremely hazardous to human surveyors and minimizing received radiation doses is just as essential. Robots appear to be a potential solution to these problems. Beyond simply measuring radiation, the robot's computer processing capabilities offer a way to apply complex data analysis methods to radiation measurements in real-time. Methods which predict likely source locations can then feed this information into other processes, potentially improving path planning and enabling more efficient measurements. Given a robot mounted with a gamma-ray detector, can we: develop a methodology to account for detector performance across a wide range of source angles, distances, and photon energies? operate an autonomously navigating robot to effectively survey and characterize an area of interest? implement a data analysis method, conventionally used in measurements of motion, for source localization purposes? An open-source TurtleBot 3 robot, running Robot Operating System (ROS) on Ubuntu 16.04 LTS, was fitted with a Kromek GR1{sup R} Cadmium Zinc Telluride (CZT) solid-state gamma-ray detector. As a part of ROS, the packages OpenSlam, gmapping, and amcl were used to perform Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM), determining the robot's position and mapping the surrounding area. Data was acquired via Lidar mounted on top the TurtleBot 3. Detector Calibration Fit: The equation was fit to 365 counts of various energies, distances, and angles. A MATLAB{sup R} program was written to simulate measurements taken a robot on a random walk, with count data and positions discretized into finite element pixels. Using this program, a sample of 100 runs was performed on a map with a simulated source at the center, with a total of 200 of 2 pixels each. Similarly, multiple runs of the filter were performed on recorded robot measurement data. In both simulation and real tests, when corrected for errors (particles placed outside of bounds or on the robot, and simulation-specific errors), corresponding t-tests of predicted x and y-coordinates were within a 95% confidence interval of the actual position. For the real trial, these positions are slightly skewed right in the x-axis as the robot remained mainly to the left side of the source within the sample area. These simulations demonstrate potential validity for the usage of a particle filter as method of radioactive source localization. In the future, true real-time implementation and data fusion may further augment the performance of the robot to localize lost sources. Additionally, identification of multiple sources, determination of source types, and usage of a collimator are areas to potentially be explored.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Kyasanur forest disease in resource-limited settings using event-based surveillance and transfer learning

In recent years, the reports of Kyasanur forest disease (KFD) breaking endemic barriers by spreading to new regions and crossing state boundaries is alarming. Effective disease surveillance and reporting systems are lacking for this emerging zoonosis, hence hindering control and prevention efforts. We compared time-series models using weather data with and without Event-Based Surveillance (EBS) information, i.e., news media reports and internet search trends, to predict monthly KFD cases in humans. We fitted Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and Long Short-Term Memory models at the national and regional levels. We utilized the rich epidemiological data from endemic regions by applying Transfer Learning (TL) techniques to predict KFD cases in new outbreak regions where disease surveillance information was scarce. Overall, the inclusion of EBS data, in addition to the weather data, substantially increased the prediction performance across all models. The XGB method produced the best predictions at the national and regional levels. The TL techniques outperformed baseline models in predicting KFD in new outbreak regions. Novel sources of data and advanced machine-learning approaches, e.g., EBS and TL, show great potential towards increasing disease prediction capabilities in data-scarce scenarios and/or resource-limited settings, for better-informed decisions in the face of emerging zoonotic threats.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Relativistic mean-field theories for neutron-star physics based on chiral effective field theory

We describe and implement a procedure for determining the couplings of a relativistic mean-field theory (RMFT) that is optimized for application to neutron star phenomenology. In the standard RMFT approach, the couplings are constrained by comparing the theory's predictions for symmetric matter at saturation density with measured nuclear properties. The theory is then applied to neutron stars which consist of neutron-rich matter at densities ranging up to several times saturation density, which allows for additional astrophysical constraints. In our approach, rather than using the RMFT to extrapolate from symmetric to neutron-rich matter and from finite-sized nuclei to uniform matter, we fit the RMFT to properties of uniform pure neutron matter obtained from chiral effective field theory. Chiral effective field theory incorporates the experimental data for nuclei in the framework of a controlled expansion for nuclear forces valid at nuclear densities and enables us to account for theoretical uncertainties when fitting the RMFT. We construct four simple RMFTs that span the uncertainties provided by chiral effective field theory for neutron matter, and are consistent with current astrophysical constraints on the equation of state. Lastly, our RMFTs can be used to model the properties of neutron-rich matter across the vast range of densities and temperatures encountered in neutron stars and their mergers.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗