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Test Standard Developed for Determining the Slow Crack Growth of Advanced Ceramics at Ambient Temperature

The service life of structural ceramic components is often limited by the process of slow crack growth. Therefore, it is important to develop an appropriate testing methodology for accurately determining the slow crack growth design parameters necessary for component life prediction. In addition, an appropriate test methodology can be used to determine the influences of component processing variables and composition on the slow crack growth and strength behavior of newly developed materials, thus allowing the component process to be tailored and optimized to specific needs. At the NASA Lewis Research Center, work to develop a standard test method to determine the slow crack growth parameters of advanced ceramics was initiated by the authors in early 1994 in the C 28 (Advanced Ceramics) committee of the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM). After about 2 years of required balloting, the draft written by the authors was approved and established as a new ASTM test standard: ASTM C 1368-97, Standard Test Method for Determination of Slow Crack Growth Parameters of Advanced Ceramics by Constant Stress-Rate Flexural Testing at Ambient Temperature. Briefly, the test method uses constant stress-rate testing to determine strengths as a function of stress rate at ambient temperature. Strengths are measured in a routine manner at four or more stress rates by applying constant displacement or loading rates. The slow crack growth parameters required for design are then estimated from a relationship between strength and stress rate. This new standard will be published in the Annual Book of ASTM Standards, Vol. 15.01, in 1998. Currently, a companion draft ASTM standard for determination of the slow crack growth parameters of advanced ceramics at elevated temperatures is being prepared by the authors and will be presented to the committee by the middle of 1998. Consequently, Lewis will maintain an active leadership role in advanced ceramics standardization within ASTM. In addition, the authors have been and are involved with several international standardization organizations including the Versailles Project on Advanced Materials and Standards (VAMAS), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the International Organization for Standardization (ISO). The associated standardization activities involve fracture toughness, strength, elastic modulus, and the machining of advanced ceramics.

Choi, Sung R.↗

Color Changing Hydrogen Sensors

During the Space Shuttle Program, one of the most hazardous operation that occurred was the loading of liquid hydrogen (LH2) during fueling operations of the spacecraft. Due to hydrogen's low explosive limit, any amount leaked could lead to catastrophic event. Hydrogen's chemical properties make it ideal as a rocket fuel; however, the fuel is deemed unsafe for most commercial use because of the inability to easily detect the gas leaking. The increased use of hydrogen over traditional fossil fuels would reduce greenhouse gases and America's dependency on foreign oil. Therefore a technology that would improve safety at NASA and in the commercial sector while creating a new economic sector would have a huge impact to NASA's mission. The Chemochromic Detector for sensing hydrogen gas leakage is a color-changing detector that is useful in any application where it is important to know not only the presence but also the location of the hydrogen gas leak. This technology utilizes a chemochromicpigment and polymer matrix that can be molded or spun into rigid or pliable shapes useable in variable temperature environments including atmospheres of inert gas, hydrogen gas, or mixtures of gases. A change in color of the detector material indicates where gaseous hydrogen leaks are occurring. The irreversible sensor has a dramatic color change from beige to dark grey and remains dark grey after exposure. A reversible pigment changes from white to blue in the presence of hydrogen and reverts back to white in the presence of oxygen. Both versions of the sensor's pigments were comprised of a mixture of a metal oxide substrate and a hydro-chromic compound (i.e., the compound that changed color in the presence of hydrogen) and immediately notified the operator of the presence of low levels of hydrogen. The detector can be used in a variety of formats including paint, tape, caulking, injection molded parts, textiles and fabrics, composites, and films. This technology brings numerous benefits over the traditional hydrogen sensors: The technology has excellent temperature stability (4K to 373 K), it can be used in cryogenic fluid applications, it is easy to apply and remove; it requires no power to operate; it has a quick response time; the leak points can be detected visually or electronically; it is nonhazardous, thus environmentally friendly; it can be reversible or irreversible; it does not require on-site monitoring; has a long shelf life; the detector is very durable; and the technology is inexpensive to manufacture.

Chemochromic sensor↗

Urban Air Mobility Noise: Current Practice, Gaps, and Recommendations

AN Air Mobility (UAM) is an opportunity for aviation to improve transportation systems across the world. Representative UAM vehicle attributes include electrical vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles that can accommodate up to 6 passengers (or equivalent cargo), are possibly autonomous, perform missions of up to 100 nautical miles at altitudes up to 3000 ft. above ground level, have flight speeds up to 200 knots, and weigh between 800 and 8000 pounds. Along with the many anticipated benefits, there will be noise issues that need to be addressed. In 2018, NASA formed an Urban Air Mobility Noise Working Group (UNWG) to assemble noise experts from industry, universities and government agencies to identify, discuss, and address UAM noise issues. This oral presentation summarizes technology gaps and goals associated with four areas of interest: Tools & Technologies, Ground & Flight Testing, Human Response & Metrics, and Regulation & Policy, and is drawn from a draft white paper [1] by the same title. Tools & Technologies include noise prediction tools and noise reduction technologies that have been developed for conventional rotorcraft and fixed-wing vehicles that may be applicable or need to be modified for UAM. Prediction tools need to be able to account for variable speed rotors and other temporal variation effects that impact community noise. A reprioritization of noise sources needs to be done since UAM vehicles include multiple rotors/propellers, often in proximity to one another and/or the airframe, with dynamic transition, and new noise sources such as electric motors or hybrid-electric propulsion. Scattering and propagation methods need to be developed that include the vehicle components and surfaces near a receiver such as buildings and vertiports. Validation databases are needed to quantify prediction uncertainties. Prediction tools used to evaluate community noise will need source models appropriate for a wide range of UAM vehicles. Existing noise reduction technologies need to be evaluated and new noise reduction technologies should be developed in anticipation of future noise requirements. Although the prediction and treatment of interior cabin noise is a secondary goal, it is recognized that new tools and methods may be needed due to the uniqueness of the vehicle design and the presence of both acoustic and structure-borne loads. Ground & Flight Testing has been a critical part of validating noise reduction technologies and verifying that an air vehicle is ready for certification. UAM vehicles introduce new challenges for test procedures such as different source noise directivity, unsteady sources due to maneuvers, and a variety of takeoff and approach trajectories. The operating environment will be more complex than current aircraft with the introduction of vertiports in populated areas with “urban canyons” making reflections an important part of noise prediction and annoyance. It is expected that new test procedures and measurement methods will be necessary. Consideration will need to be given for both piloted and autonomous operations. Human Response & Metrics may be very different for UAM noise compared to current experience with airport noise. Current metrics used to certify rotorcraft and fixed-wing aircraft may not be as useful for evaluating UAM noise. Operations at lower altitudes may influence annoyance. Psychoacoustic and community testing will be needed to quantify annoyance and assess appropriate metrics. In addition to conventional noise level metrics, considerations such as audibility and temporal variation of the sound may be required. Differences between indoor or outdoor exposure will have an impact with dependence on urban and residential flight paths. Aircraft noise is currently regulated at a national level and typically involves partnerships with the industry to establish regulations. Regulators realize that current policies and procedures may not be appropriate for some of the emerging air vehicles and new procedures may be needed to address UAM noise. Development of new policies and procedures are needed so that local communities do not hastily attempt to establish their own restrictions that will both limit growth of the market and create an inconsistent and confusing regulatory environment. To expedite this development, it is crucial early measurement data are shared through partnership arrangements to support both noise certification and noise modeling/noise assessment. At the same time, an effective engagement strategy should be developed to address local community noise issues associated with UAM vehicles and flight operations as they arise.

urban air mobility↗

RTJ-303: Variable geometry, oblique wing supersonic aircraft

This document is a preliminary design of a High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) named the RTJ-303. It is a 300 passenger, Mach 1.6 transport with a range of 5000 nautical miles. It features four mixed-flow turbofan engines, variable geometry oblique wing, with conventional tail-aft control surfaces. The preliminary cost analysis for a production of 300 aircraft shows that flyaway cost would be 183 million dollars (1992) per aircraft. The aircraft uses standard jet fuel and requires no special materials to handle aerodynamic heating in flight because the stagnation temperatures are approximately 130 degrees Fahrenheit in the supersonic cruise condition. It should be stressed that this aircraft could be built with today's technology and does not rely on vague and uncertain assumptions of technology advances. Included in this report are sections discussing the details of the preliminary design sequence including the mission to be performed, operational and performance constraints, the aircraft configuration and the tradeoffs of the final choice, wing design, a detailed fuselage design, empennage design, sizing of tail geometry, and selection of control surfaces, a discussion on propulsion system/inlet choice and their position on the aircraft, landing gear design including a look at tire selection, tip-over criterion, pavement loading, and retraction kinematics, structures design including load determination, and materials selection, aircraft performance, a look at stability and handling qualities, systems layout including location of key components, operations requirements maintenance characteristics, a preliminary cost analysis, and conclusions made regarding the design, and recommendations for further study.

Antaran, Albert↗

Multi-model Comparison of the Volcanic Sulfate Deposition from the 1815 Eruption of Mt. Tambora

The eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815 was the largest volcanic eruption of the past 500 years. The eruption had significant climatic impacts, leading to the 1816 "year without a summer", and remains a valuable event from which to understand the climatic effects of large stratospheric volcanic sulfur dioxide injections. The eruption also resulted in one of the strongest and most easily identifiable volcanic sulfate signals in polar ice cores, which are widely used to reconstruct the timing and atmospheric sulfate loading of past eruptions. As part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP), five state-of-the-art global aerosol models simulated this eruption. We analyze both simulated background (no Tambora) and volcanic (with Tambora) sulfate deposition to polar regions and compare to ice core records. The models simulate overall similar patterns of background sulfate deposition, although there are differences in regional details and magnitude. However, the volcanic sulfate deposition varies considerably between the models with differences in timing, spatial pattern and magnitude. Mean simulated deposited sulfate on Antarctica ranges from 19 to 264 kgkm-2 and on Greenland from 31 to 194 kgkm-2, as compared to the mean ice-core derived estimates of roughly 50 kgkm-2 for both Greenland and Antarctica. The ratio of the hemispheric atmospheric sulfate aerosol burden after the eruption to the average ice sheet deposited sulfate varies between models by up to a factor of 15. Sources of this inter-model variability include differences in both the formation and the transport of sulfate aerosol. Our results suggest that deriving relationships between sulfate deposited on ice sheets and atmospheric sulfate burdens from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.

Marshall, Lauren↗

Effect of Discontinuities and Uncertainties on the Response and Failure of Composite Structures

The overall goal of this research was to assess the effect of discontinuities and uncertainties on the nonlinear response and failure of composite structures subjected to combined mechanical and thermal loads. The four key elements of the study were: (1) development of simple and efficient procedures for the accurate determination of transverse shear and transverse normal stresses in structural sandwiches as well as in unstiffened and stiffened composite panels and shells; (2) study the effects of transverse stresses on the response, damage initiation and propagation in composite and sandwich structures; (3) use of hierarchical sensitivity coefficients to identify the major parameters that affect the response and damage in each of the different levels in the hierarchy (micro-mechanical, layer, panel, subcomponent and component levels); and (4) application of fuzzy set techniques to identify the range and variation of possible responses. The computational models developed were used in conjunction with experiments, to understand the physical phenomena associated with the nonlinear response and failure of composite and sandwich structures. A toolkit was developed for use in conjunction with deterministic analysis programs to help the designer in assessing the effect of uncertainties in the different computational model parameters on the variability of the response quantities.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗

Reliability Quantification of the Flexure: A Critical Stirling Convertor Component

Uncertainties in the manufacturing, fabrication process, material behavior, loads, and boundary conditions results in the variation of the stresses and strains induced in the flexures and its fatigue life. Past experience and the test data at material coupon levels revealed a significant amount of scatter of the fatigue life. Owing to these facts, the design of the flexure, using conventional approaches based on safety factor or traditional reliability based on similar equipment considerations does not provide a direct measure of reliability. Additionally, it may not be feasible to run actual long term fatigue tests due to cost and time constraints. Therefore it is difficult to ascertain material fatigue strength limit. The objective of the paper is to present a methodology and quantified results of numerical simulation for the reliability of flexures used in the Stirling convertor for their structural performance. The proposed approach is based on application of finite element analysis method in combination with the random fatigue limit model, which includes uncertainties in material fatigue life. Additionally, sensitivity of fatigue life reliability to the design variables is quantified and its use to develop guidelines to improve design, manufacturing, quality control and inspection design process is described.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗

Determination of Small Animal Long Bone Properties Using Densitometry

Assessment of bone structural property changes due to loading regimens or pharmacological treatment typically requires destructive mechanical testing and sectioning. Our group has accurately and non-destructively estimated three dimensional cross-sectional areal properties (principal moments of inertia, Imax and Imin, and principal angle, Theta) of human cadaver long bones from pixel-by-pixel analysis of three non-coplanar densitometry scans. Because the scanner beam width is on the order of typical small animal diapbyseal diameters, applying this technique to high-resolution scans of rat long bones necessitates additional processing to minimize errors induced by beam smearing, such as dependence on sample orientation and overestimation of Imax and Imin. We hypothesized that these errors are correctable by digital image processing of the raw scan data. In all cases, four scans, using only the low energy data (Hologic QDR-1000W, small animal mode), are averaged to increase image signal-to-noise ratio. Raw scans are additionally processed by interpolation, deconvolution by a filter derived from scanner beam characteristics, and masking using a variable threshold based on image dynamic range. To assess accuracy, we scanned an aluminum step phantom at 12 orientations over a range of 180 deg about the longitudinal axis, in 15 deg increments. The phantom dimensions (2.5, 3.1, 3.8 mm x 4.4 mm; Imin/Imax: 0.33-0.74) were comparable to the dimensions of a rat femur which was also scanned. Cross-sectional properties were determined at 0.25 mm increments along the length of the phantom and femur. The table shows average error (+/- SD) from theory of Imax, Imin, and Theta) over the 12 orientations, calculated from raw and fully processed phantom images, as well as standard deviations about the mean for the femur scans. Processing of phantom scans increased agreement with theory, indicating improved accuracy. Smaller standard deviations with processing indicate increased precision and repeatability. Standard deviations for the femur are consistent with those of the phantom. We conclude that in conjunction with digital image enhancement, densitometry scans are suitable for non-destructive determination of areal properties of small animal bones of comparable size to our phantom, allowing prediction of Imax and Imin within 2.5% and Theta within a fraction of a degree. This method represents a considerable extension of current methods of analyzing bone tissue distribution in small animal bones.

Breit, Gregory A.↗

Disuse exaggerates the detrimental effects of alcohol on cortical bone

BACKGROUND: Alcohol abuse is associated with an increased risk for osteoporosis. However, comorbidity factors may play an important role in the pathogenesis of alcohol-related bone fractures. Suboptimal mechanical loading of the skeleton, an established risk factor for bone loss, may occur in some alcohol abusers due to reduced physical activity, muscle atrophy, or both. The effect of alcohol consumption and reduced physical activity on bone metabolism has not been well studied. The purpose of this study was to determine whether mechanical disuse alters bone metabolism in a rat model for chronic alcohol abuse. METHODS: Alcohol was administered in the diet (35% caloric intake) of 6-month-old male rats for 4 weeks. Rats were hindlimb-unloaded the final 2 weeks of the experiment to prevent dynamic weight bearing. Afterward, cortical bone histomorphometry was evaluated at the tibia-fibula synostosis. RESULTS: At the periosteal surface of the tibial diaphysis, alcohol and hindlimb unloading independently decreased the mineralizing perimeter, mineral apposition rate, and bone formation rate. In addition, alcohol, but not hindlimb unloading, increased endocortical bone resorption. The respective detrimental effects of alcohol and hindlimb unloading to inhibit bone formation were additive; there was no interaction between the two variables. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced weight bearing accentuates the detrimental effects of alcohol on cortical bone in adult male rats by further inhibiting bone formation. This finding suggests that reduced physical activity may be a comorbidity factor for osteoporosis in alcohol abusers.

NASA Discipline Cell Biology↗

Exploiting the dynamics of S-phase tracers in developing brain: interkinetic nuclear migration for cells entering versus leaving the S-phase

Two S-phase markers for in vivo studies of cell proliferation in the developing central nervous system, tritiated thymidine ((3)H-TdR) and bromodeoxyuridine (BUdR), were compared using double-labeling techniques in the developing mouse cortex at embryonic day 14 (E14). The labeling efficiencies and detectability of the two tracers were approximately equivalent, and there was no evidence of significant tracer interactions that depend on order of administration. For both tracers, the loading time needed to label an S-phase cell to detectability is estimated at <0.2 h shortly after the injection of the label, but, as the concentration of the label falls, it increases to approximately 0.65 h after about 30 min. Thereafter, cells that enter the S-phase continue to become detectably labeled for approximately 5-6 h. The approximate equivalence of these two tracers was exploited to observe directly the numbers and positions of nuclei entering (labeled with the second tracer only) and leaving (labeled with the first tracer only) the S-phase. As expected, the numbers of nuclei entering and leaving the S-phase both increased as the interval between the two injections lengthened. Also, nuclei leaving the S-phase rapidly move towards the ventricular surface during G2, but, unexpectedly, the distribution of the entering nuclei does not differ significantly from the distribution of the nuclei in the S-phase. This indicates that: (1) the extent and rate of abventricular nuclear movement during G1 is variable, such that not all nuclei traverse the entire width of the ventricular zone, and (2) interkinetic nuclear movements are minimal during S-phase. Copyright 2000 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Non-NASA Center↗

Energization and transport of ions of ionospheric origin in the terrestrial magnetosphere

The work of this grant has been predominantly focused on ion outflows from two data sets: Prognoz 7 and Dynamics Explorer. The Prognoz analysis studied ion densities, temperatures, and flow velocities in the magnetotail. The work performed under this contract consisted of developing a program to load the raw data, computing the background subtraction of a strong sun pulse, and using the net count to calculate the low order moments of the distribution function. The study confirms the results of ISEE with regard to the supply of plasma from the cusp as a major source of plasmasheet plasma and goes beyond this to discuss the use of ion velocities as a way to examine the motions of the magnetotail. The abstract of the work to be reported is included as an appendix. The work on the DE/Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer is separated into two categories: (1) classification of low-energy ion flows from high-latitudes, and (2) studies of the polar wind. Major publications resulting from this work are also included as an appendix to this report. The polar wind is in a category by itself as a result of the thermal escape of hydrogen and helium because of ambipolar diffusion through the heavier, oxygen-dominated topside ionosphere. The analysis of the polar wind reports the flux variability as a function of season, magnetic activity, etc. Much effort has been expended under this grant to complete a follow on study of the thermal structure of the polar wind. Extensive display tools and analysis software have been developed and used in an attempt to carry out this thermal analysis. The present work uses a constrained fit scheme that combines the ion densities and flow velocities derived from Chandler et al. and a spacecraft potential derived from an empirical relation to the total ion density to determine the remaining fit parameter, the ion temperature, via a least squares fit to the RIMS data.

Waite, J. Hunter JR.↗

How Well Does the Latest Anthropomorphic Test Device Mimic Human Impact Responses?

One of the goals of the NASA Occupant Protection Group is to understand the human tolerance to dynamic loading. This knowledge has to come through indirect approaches such as existing human response databases, anthropometric test devices (ATD), animal testing, post‐mortem human subjects, and models. This study investigated the biofidelity of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's ATD named the THOR (test device for human occupant restraint). If THOR responds comparably to humans, then it could potentially be used as a human surrogate to help validate space vehicle requirements for occupant protection. The THOR responses to frontal and spinal impacts (ranging from 8 to 12 G with rise times of 40, 70, and 100 ms) were measured and compared to human volunteer responses (95 trials in frontal and 58 in spinal) previously collected by the U. S. Air Force on the same horizontal impact accelerator. The impact acceleration profiles tested are within the expected range of multi‐purpose crew vehicle (MPCV) landing dynamics. A correlation score was calculated for each THOR to human comparison using CORA (CORrelation and Analysis) software. A two‐parameter beta distribution model fit was obtained for each dependent variable using maximum likelihood estimation. For frontal impacts, the THOR head x‐acceleration peak response correlated with the human response at 8 and 10‐G 100 ms but not 10‐G 70 ms. The phase lagged the human response. Head z‐acceleration was not correlated. Chest x‐acceleration was in phase, had a higher peak response, and was well correlated with lighter subjects (Cora = 0.8 for 46 kg vs. Cora = 0.4 for 126 kg). Head x‐displacement had a leading phase. Several subjects responded with the same peak displacement but the mean of the group was lower. The shoulder x‐displacement was in phase but had higher peaks than the human response. For spinal impacts, the THOR head x‐acceleration was not well correlated. Head and chest z‐acceleration was in phase but had a higher peak response. Chest z‐acceleration was highly correlated with heavier subjects at lower G pulses (Cora = 0.86 for 125 kg at 8 G). The human response was variable in shoulder z‐displacement but the THOR was in phase and was comparable to the mean peak response. Head xand z‐displacement was in phase but had higher peaks. Seat pan forces were well correlated, were in phase, but had a larger peak response than most subjects. The THOR does not respond to frontal and spinal impacts exactly the same way that a human does. Some responses are well matched and others are not. Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of this ATD is an important first step in determining its usefulness in occupant protection at NASA

Newby, N.↗

How Well Does the Latest Anthropomorphic Test Device Mimic Human Impact Responses?

One of the goals of the NASA Occupant Protection Group is to understand the human tolerance to dynamic loading. This knowledge has to come through indirect approaches such as existing human response databases, anthropometric test devices (ATD), animal testing, post-­‐mortem human subjects, and models. This study investigated the biofidelity of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's ATD named the THOR (test device for human occupant restraint). If THOR responds comparably to humans, then it could potentially be used as a human surrogate to help validate space vehicle requirements for occupant protection. The THOR responses to frontal and spinal impacts (ranging from 8 to 12 G with rise times of 40, 70, and 100 ms) were measured and compared to human volunteer responses (95 trials in frontal and 58 in spinal) previously collected by the U. S. Air Force on the same horizontal impact accelerator. The impact acceleration profiles tested are within the expected range of multi-­‐purpose crew vehicle (MPCV) landing dynamics. A correlation score was calculated for each THOR to human comparison using CORA (CORrelation and Analysis) software. A two-­‐parameter beta distribution model fit was obtained for each dependent variable using maximum likelihood estimation. For frontal impacts, the THOR head x-­‐acceleration peak response correlated with the human response at 8 and 10-­‐G 100 ms but not 10-­‐G 70 ms. The phase lagged the human response. Head z-­‐acceleration was not correlated. Chest x-­‐acceleration was in phase, had a higher peak response, and was well correlated with lighter subjects (Cora = 0.8 for 46 kg vs. Cora = 0.4 for 126 kg). Head x-­‐displacement had a leading phase. Several subjects responded with the same peak displacement but the mean of the group was lower. The shoulder x-­‐displacement was in phase but had higher peaks than the human response. For spinal impacts, the THOR head x-­‐acceleration was not well correlated. Head and chest z-­‐acceleration was in phase but had a higher peak response. Chest z-­‐acceleration was highly correlated with heavier subjects at lower G pulses (Cora = 0.86 for 125 kg at 8 G). The human response was variable in shoulder z-­‐displacement but the THOR was in phase and was comparable to the mean peak response. Head x-­‐ and z-­‐displacement was in phase but had higher peaks. Seat pan forces were well correlated, were in phase, but had a larger peak response than most subjects. The THOR does not respond to frontal and spinal impacts exactly the same way that a human does. Some responses are well matched and others are not. Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of this ATD is an important first step in determining its usefulness in occupant protection at NASA

Newby, Nate↗

Orbit Optimization For The Geospace Electrodynamics Connections (GEC) Mission

Part of NASA's Solar Terrestrial Probe line of missions, the Geospace Electrodynamics Connections (GEC) mission will deploy a formation of three spacecraft to perform in-situ atmospheric research in the low Ionosphere-Thermosphere region. These spacecraft will fly together in a %tring-of-pearls formation with variable spacings ranging from 10 seconds to one-quarter of an orbit at perigee. Over the course of its two-year mission, the three spacecraft will perform ten, 1-week dipping campaigns whereby they maneuver to lower their perigee to near 134 km. Using available launch vehicle performance data, an optimal parking orbit of 222 x 1525 km was found to maximize the dry mass available while providing enough propellant to perform the ten deep-dipping campaigns over its two-year mission. The results were used to create multi-variable contour plots containing the orbit perigee, the orbit apogee, spacecraft dry mass, propellant mass, and T500 (a science data collection figure of merit that tabulates the cumulative time spent below 500 km). These plots illustrate how the mission can trade off science return relative to the cost in dry mass and propellant. Other optimal solutions such as minimum propellant or maximum T500 were found to either limit the science data collection or to be dry mass limiting, respectively. Sensitivity analyses were performed to find new optimal (maximum dry mass) solutions if the number of campaigns changed, if the coefficient of drag (CD) were different, and if the propellant specific impulse were increased. A surprising result showed that the dry mass and T500 were both increased if the number of campaigns decreased. Changes in CD provided the expected results - raising CD lowered both the dry mass and T500 while lowering CD raised both the dry mass and T500. Increases in the propellant specific impulse had the expected outcome of raising the dry mass and lowering the propellant load but there was no change in the T500 figure of merit. The orbit optimization was performed parametrically using a Matlab(TradeMark) script and validated using FreeFlyer(TradeMark), a commercial orbit analysis tool. ,

Mesarch, Michael A.↗

Stability of the cylindrical shell of variable curvature

This report is a first attempt to devise a calculation method for representing the buckling behavior of cylindrical shells of variable curvature. The problem occurs, for instance, in dimensioning wing noses, the stability of which is decisively influenced by the variability of curvature. The calculation is made possible by simplifying the stability equations (permissible for the shell of small curvature) and by assuming that the curvature 1/R as a function of the arc lengths can be represented by a very few Fourier terms. The formulas for the special case of an ellipse-like half oval with an axis ratio 1/3 ?= e ?= 1 under compression in longitudinal direction,shear, and a combination of shear and compression were evaluated. However, the results can also be applied approximately to an unsymmetrical oval-shell segment under compression, shear, and bending so that the numerical values contained in the diagrams 10 to 12 represent directly dimensioning data for the wing nose.

LOADS AND STRESSES, STRUCTURAL - BENDING↗

MESSENGER and Mariner 10 Flyby Observations of Magnetotail Structure and Dynamics at Mercury

The first (M1), second (M2), and third (M3) MESSENGER flybys of Mercury traversed the planet's magnetotail from 1.25 to 3.25 RM downstream of the planet, where R(sub M) is Mercury's radius (2440 km). The encounters took place under northward, southward, and variable-polarity interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), respectively. The magnetic field strength B in Mercury's magnetotail follows a power law decrease with increasing antisunward distance ∣X∣, B approximately ∣X∣(sup G), with G varying from -5.4 for northward to -1.6 for southward IMF. Low-latitude boundary layers (LLBLs) containing strong northward magnetic field were detected at the tail flanks during two of the flybys. The observed thickness of the LLBL was 33% and 16% of the radius of the tail during M1 and M3, respectively, but the boundary layer was completely absent during M2. Clear signatures of tail reconnection are evident in the M2 and M3 magnetic field measurements. Plasmoids and traveling compression regions were observed during M2 and M3 with typical durations of approximately 1-3 s, suggesting diameters of approximately 500-1500 km. Overall, the response of Mercury's magnetotail to the steady southward IMF during M2 appeared very similar to steady magnetospheric convection events at Earth, which are believed to be driven by quasi-continuous reconnection. In contrast, the M3 measurements are dominated by tail loading and unloading events that resemble the large-scale magnetic field reconfigurations observed during magnetospheric substorms at Earth.

Magnetotail↗

Probability Bounds Analysis Applied to Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Nonlinearity

The Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program Orion vehicle finite element model (FEM) was updated based on a modal test performed by Lockheed Martin. Due to nonlinearity observed in the test results, linear low force level (LL) and high force level (HL) FEMs were developed for use during various Space Launch System (SLS) flight regimes depending on expected forcing levels. Uncertainty models were derived for the combined MPCV and MPCV Stage Adaptor LL and HL Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components based on the MPCV structural test article Configuration 4 modal test-analysis correlation results. Subsequently, system-level uncertainty quantification analyses were performed using both models for various SLS flight configurations to determine the impact of the nonlinearity on important system metrics. The system metrics included both transfer functions associated with attitude control and dynamic loads associated with aerodynamic buffeting during ascent. In each case, an independent Monte Carlo (MC) analysis was performed, and no attempt was made to combine the results. The Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method was used to develop the LL and HL MPCV HCB uncertainty models. The HPV method provides both parametric and non-parametric components of uncertainty. The non-parametric uncertainty accounts for the difference in model-form between the linearized analytical model and the corresponding linearized component test results in the form of mode shapes and frequencies at that force level. This linear model-form uncertainty is implemented in the HPV method using random matrix theory. However, the HPV uncertainty models developed for the linear LL and HL MPCV components do not account for the nonlinearity in the MPCV. With respect to the linearized models, this nonlinearity is also an uncertainty in model form, but in this case, it must be treated independently as an epistemic uncertainty. It represents a lack of knowledge, in contrast to an aleatory uncertainty due to the randomness of a variable. In the case of an epistemic variable, the true value is unknown, only the interval within which it lies is known. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced with increased knowledge, while in general, aleatory uncertainty cannot. This work combines the epistemic uncertainty due to the MPCV nonlinearity with the parametric and non-parametric uncertainty within the HPV method using a second order propagation approach. The LL and HL test data is augmented with surrogate test data derived from a nonlinear MPCV representation. The impact of the MPCV nonlinearity on system response statistics is determined using a series of cumulative distribution functions in the form of a horsetail plot, or p-box. This results in an interval of probabilities for a specific response value, or an interval of response values at a specific probability.

Daniel C Kammer↗

Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including environmental factors, factors associated with the fall event, mass and anthropometric values of the astronaut, BMD characteristics, characteristics of the relationship between BMD and bone strength and bone fracture characteristics. The uncertainty in these factors is captured through the use of parameter distributions and the fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. To determine parameter sensitivity, a correlation coefficient is found between the sample set of each model parameter and the calculated fracture probabilities. Each parameters contribution to the variance is found by squaring the correlation coefficients, dividing by the sum of the squared correlation coefficients, and multiplying by 100. Results: Sensitivity analyses of BFxRM simulations of preflight, 0 days post-flight and 365 days post-flight falls onto the hip revealed a subset of the twelve factors within the model which cause the most variation in the fracture predictions. These factors include the spring constant used in the hip biomechanical model, the midpoint FRI parameter within the equation used to convert FRI to fracture probability and preflight BMD values. Future work: Plans are underway to update the BFxRM by incorporating bone strength information from finite element models (FEM) into the bone strength portion of the BFxRM. Also, FEM bone strength information along with fracture outcome data will be incorporated into the FRI to fracture probability.

mathematical models↗