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Economic Evaluation of Modernization Expenditures for Electric Utility Distribution Systems: A Guide for Utility Regulators

Cost-effectiveness evaluation of potential grid modernization solutions is integral to integrated distribution system planning (IDSP). This report synthesizes and updates prior cost-effectiveness approaches identified by the U.S. Department of Energy for grid modernization investments, incorporating multi-objective decision-making. The structure of the report follows the IDSP process, from identifying objectives and priorities to prioritizing grid solutions. The report details two methods for conducting initial cost-effectiveness screening of individual and interdependent grid components: (1) Lowest Reasonable Cost and (2) Benefit-Cost Analysis. Drawing on solutions that passed the initial cost-effectiveness screen, the utility prioritizes grid solutions based on policy objectives and priorities, regulatory compliance, operational efficiencies, and other factors to develop a portfolio of distribution solutions. The utility uses multi-objective decision-making to assess each proposed expenditure against each objective and respective metric. The utility applies a weighting factor, reflecting the priority ranking of the objective, to the total numerical “score” based on the contribution of the proposed solution to addressing each objective. Ultimately, the utility ranks each expenditure from highest to lowest priority using the final score for each solution as well as its cost. The report includes examples of emerging best practices for states and utilities and a cost-effectiveness process checklist.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Framework for Non-Pipeline Alternatives Analysis and Review of Existing Approaches

States are increasingly interested in gas distribution system planning and the role that demand-side resources can play in maintaining an affordable, reliable, equitable, and low-carbon energy system. In particular, public utility commissions and utilities are exploring the role of non-pipeline alternatives (NPA) – an investment or activity that defers, reduces, or avoids the need to construct or replace a pipeline – in gas distribution system planning. NPAs are an emerging cost and risk mitigation tool that can provide gas utilities with an opportunity to reduce emissions, gas system costs, and customer risk by avoiding unnecessary infrastructure spending. Rather than address system issues with more costly and long-lived traditional capital projects, utilities can leverage demand-side NPA resources such as energy efficiency and electrification as well as supply-side NPA resources to meet system needs. However, there is limited guidance on performing an NPA and even fewer lessons learned. To fill this gap, the U.S. Department of Energy funded two reports on NPAs. The first report is a literature review that focuses on four states' NPA policies. The second report offers a framework for evaluating NPAs that states can adapt to meet their policy needs.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Dose calculation software for helical tomotherapy, utilizing patient CT data to calculate an independent three-dimensional dose cube

Purpose: Treatment plans for the TomoTherapy unit are produced with a planning system that is integral to the unit. The authors have produced an independent dose calculation system, to enable plans to be recalculated in three dimensions, using the patient's CT data. Methods: Software has been written using MATLAB. The DICOM-RT plan object is used to determine the treatment parameters used, including the treatment sinogram. Each projection of the sinogram is segmented and used to calculate dose at multiple calculation points in a three-dimensional grid using tables of measured beam data. A fast ray-trace algorithm is used to determine effective depth for each projection angle at each calculation point. Calculations were performed on a standard desktop personal computer, with a 2.6 GHz Pentium, running Windows XP. Results: The time to perform a calculation, for 3375 points averaged 1 min 23 s for prostate plans and 3 min 40 s for head and neck plans. The mean dose within the 50% isodose was calculated and compared with the predictions of the TomoTherapy planning system. When the modified CT (which includes the TomoTherapy couch) was used, the mean difference for ten prostate patients, was -0.4% (range -0.9% to +0.3%). With the original CT (which included the CT couch), the mean difference was -1.0% (range -1.7% to 0.0%). The number of points agreeing with a gamma 3%/3 mm averaged 99.2% with the modified CT, 96.3% with the original CT. For ten head and neck patients, for the modified and original CT, respectively, the mean difference was +1.1% (range -0.4% to +3.1%) and 1.1% (range -0.4% to +3.0%) with 94.4% and 95.4% passing a gamma 4%/4 mm. The ability of the program to detect a variety of simulated errors has been tested. Conclusions: By using the patient's CT data, the independent dose calculation performs checks that are not performed by a measurement in a cylindrical phantom. This enables it to be used either as an additional check or to replace phantom measurements for some patients. The software has potential to be used in any application where one wishes to model changes to patient conditions.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Image applications for coastal resource planning: Elkhorn Slough Pilot Project

The purpose of this project has been to evaluate the utility of digital spectral imagery at two levels of resolution for large scale, accurate, auto-classification of land cover along the Central California Coast. Although remote sensing technology offers obvious advantages over on-the-ground mapping, there are substantial trade-offs that must be made between resolving power and costs. Higher resolution images can theoretically be used to identify smaller habitat patches, but they usually require more scenes to cover a given area and processing these images is computationally intense requiring much more computer time and memory. Lower resolution images can cover much larger areas, are less costly to store, process, and manipulate, but due to their larger pixel size can lack the resolving power of the denser images. This lack of resolving power can be critical in regions such as the Central California Coast where important habitat change often occurs on a scale of 10 meters. Our approach has been to compare vegetation and habitat classification results from two aircraft-based spectral scenes covering the same study area but at different levels of resolution with a previously produced ground-truthed land cover base map of the area. Both of the spectral images used for this project were of significantly higher resolution than the satellite-based LandSat scenes used in the C-CAP program. The lower reaches of the Elkhorn Slough watershed was chosen as an ideal study site because it encompasses a suite of important vegetation types and habitat loss processes characteristic of the central coast region. Dramatic habitat alterations have and are occurring within the Elkhorn Slough drainage area, including erosion and sedimentation, land use conversion, wetland loss, and incremental loss due to development and encroachnnent by agriculture. Additonally, much attention has already been focused on the Elkhorn Slough due to its status as a National Marine Education and Research Reserve and as part of the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary. These destinations have resulted in a rich collection of prior spatial and temporal habitat data.

Kvitek, Rikk G.↗

Community Solar Program Design and Subscription Models

This slide deck provides an overview of community solar program design and subscription models. It introduces and explains the different elements of community solar program and subscription design, and proves proven practices and considerations when designing a community solar program. This slide deck was originally developed as part of a working group under the National Community Solar Partnership's Municipal Utility Collaborative.

community solar↗

The Hydrofluorocarbon Phasedown and Commercial Space Conditioning: A Guide to the Transition

You may be aware of the hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) phasedown, but the details and its impact on your operations may still be unclear. Or perhaps this is the first you're hearing about the phasedown. In either case, this guide provides information to aid conversations with facility managers and engineers and provides an explanation of how the phasedown affects equipment in commercial buildings. It also includes actions you and your organization can take now to properly plan and prepare.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

Concepts of Operations for Asteroid Rendezvous Missions Focused on Resources Utilization

Several asteroids are the targets of international robotic space missions currently manifested or in the planning stage. This global interest reflects a need to study these celestial bodies for the scientific information they provide about our solar system, and to better understand how to mitigate the collision threats some of them pose to Earth. Another important objective of these missions is providing assessments of the potential resources that asteroids could provide to future space architectures. In this paper, we examine a series of possible mission operations focused on advancing both our knowledge of the types of asteroids suited for different forms of resource extraction, and the capabilities required to extract those resources for mission enhancing and enabling uses such as radiation protection, propulsion, life support, shelter and manufacturing. An evolutionary development and demonstration approach is recommended within the framework of a larger campaign that prepares for the first landings of humans on Mars. As is the case for terrestrial mining, the development and demonstration approach progresses from resource prospecting (understanding the resource, and mapping the 'ore body'), mining/extraction feasibility and product assessment, pilot operations, to full in-situ resource utilization (ISRU). Opportunities to gather specific knowledge for ISRU via resource prospecting during science missions to asteroids are also examined to maximize the pace of development of needed ISRU capabilities and technologies for deep space missions.

radiation protection↗

Affordable Development and Qualification Strategy for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

A number of recent assessments have confirmed the results of several earlier studies that Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) is a leading technology for human exploration of Mars. It is generally acknowledged that NTP provides the best prospects for the transportation of humans to Mars in the 2030's. Its high Isp coupled with the high thrusts achievable, allow reasonable trip times, thereby alleviating concerns about space radiation and "claustrophobia" effects. NASA has embarked on the latest phase of the development of NTP systems, and is adopting an affordable approach in response to the pressure of the times. The affordable strategy is built on maximizing the use of the large NTP technology base developed in the 1950's and 60's. The fact that the NTP engines were actually demonstrated to work as planned, is a great risk reduction feature in its development. The strategy utilizes non-nuclear testing to the fullest extent possible, and uses focused nuclear tests for the essential qualification and certification tests. The perceived cost risk of conducting the ground tests is being addressed by considering novel testing approaches. This includes the use of boreholes to contain radioactive effluents, and use of fuel with very high retention capability for fission products. The use of prototype flight tests is being considered as final steps in the development prior to undertaking human flight missions. In addition to the technical issues, plans are being prepared to address the institutional and political issues that need to be considered in this major venture. While the development and deployment of NTP system is not expected to be cheap, the value of the system will be very high, and amortized over the many missions that it enables and enhances, the imputed costs will be very reasonable. Using the approach outlined, NASA and its partners, currently the DOE, and subsequently industry, have a good chance of creating a sustained development program leading to human missions to Mars within the next few decades.

Gerrish, Harold P., Jr.↗

Development of the Resource Prospector Planetary Rover

The Resource Prospector (RP) is an In-­‐Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) lunar rover mission under study by NASA. RP is planned to launch in 2020 to prospect for subsurface volatiles and to extract oxygen from lunar regolith. The mission will address several of NASA's "Strategic Knowledge Gaps" for lunar exploration. The mission will also address the Global Exploration Roadmap's strategic goal of using local resources for human exploration. The distribution of lunar subsurface volatiles drives the mission requirement for mobility. The spatial distribution is hypothesized to be governed by impact cratering with the top 0.5 m being patchy at scales of 100 m. The mixing time scale increases with depth (less frequent larger impacts). Consequently, increased mobility reduces the depth requirement for sampling. The target RP traverse will extend 1 km radially from the landing site to sample craters of varying sizes. Sampling craters with different ages will reveal possible volatile emplacement history. In 1 Ga, approximately 60-­70 craters of 10 m diameter form per km2. Thus, the rover will need to sample at least ten of these craters, which may require a total traverse path length of 2-­‐3 km. During 2014-­2015, we developed an initial prototype rover for RP. The current design is a solar powered, four-­wheeled vehicle, with hub motor drive, offset four wheel steering, and active suspension. Active suspension provides capabilities including changing vehicle ride height, traversing comparatively large obstacles, and controlling load on the wheels. All-­wheel steering enables the vehicle to point arbitrarily while roving, e.g., to keep the solar array pointed at the sun while in motion. The offset steering combined with active suspension improves driving in soft soil. The rover's on-­board software utilizes NASA's Core Flight Software, which is a reusable flight software environment. During 2015, we completed the initial rover software build, which provides low-­level hardware interfaces, basic mobility control, waypoint driving, odometry, basic error checking, and camera services. Development of the prototype rover has enabled maturation of many of the subsystems to TRL 5. During the next year, we will conduct integrated testing of concepts of operation, navigation, and remote driving tools. In addition, we will perform environmental tests including radiation (avionics), thermal and thermal/vacuum (mechanisms), and gravity offload (mobility).

robotics↗

Direction-Modulated Brachytherapy for High-Dose-Rate Treatment of Cervical Cancer. I: Theoretical Design

Purpose: To demonstrate that utilization of the direction-modulated brachytherapy (DMBT) concept can significantly improve treatment plan quality in the setting of high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy for cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: The new, MRI-compatible, tandem design has 6 peripheral holes of 1.3-mm diameter, grooved along a nonmagnetic tungsten-alloy rod (ρ = 18.0 g/cm{sup 3}), enclosed in Delrin tubing (polyoxymethylene, ρ = 1.41 g/cm{sup 3}), with a total thickness of 6.4 mm. The Monte Carlo N-Particle code was used to calculate the anisotropic {sup 192}Ir dose distributions. An in-house-developed inverse planning platform, geared with simulated annealing and constrained-gradient optimization algorithms, was used to replan 15 patient cases (total 75 plans) treated with a conventional tandem and ovoids (T and O) applicator. Prescription dose was 6 Gy. For replanning, we replaced the conventional tandem with that of the new DMBT tandem for optimization but left the ovoids in place and kept the dwell positions as originally planned. All DMBT plans were normalized to match the high-risk clinical target volume V100 coverage of the T and O plans. Results: In general there were marked improvements in plan quality for the DMBT plans. On average, D2cc for the bladder, rectum, and sigmoid were reduced by 0.59 ± 0.87 Gy (8.5% ± 28.7%), 0.48 ± 0.55 Gy (21.1% ± 27.2%), and 0.10 ± 0.38 Gy (40.6% ± 214.9%) among the 75 plans, with best single-plan reductions of 3.20 Gy (40.8%), 2.38 Gy (40.07%), and 1.26 Gy (27.5%), respectively. The high-risk clinical target volume D90 was similar, with 6.55 ± 0.96 Gy and 6.59 ± 1.06 Gy for T and O and DMBT, respectively. Conclusions: Application of the DMBT concept to cervical cancer allowed for improved organ at risk sparing while achieving similar target coverage on a sizeable patient population, as intended, by maximally utilizing the anatomic information contained in 3-dimensional imaging. A series of mechanical and clinical validations are to be followed.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Accelerate Performance (Final Technical Report)

Encouraging commercial building owners to set measurable energy goals before design begins can drive design and contractor teams to develop innovative energy efficiency solutions within conventional building budgets. A federal building owner piloted this technique and created a large-scale zero-energy office building on a budget comparable to local market construction rates. The successes and lessons learned from this performance-based project formed the basis of Accelerate Performance, an expanded program using utilities as the primary outreach channel to replicate the approach. Four utilities partnered with Slipstream, a not-for-profit program implementer, to develop pilot incentive offerings to focus building owners on the whole building rather than on individual building components and systems. The original performance-based procurement process and its successful implementation in a federal building project informed all these efforts. The experiences and lessons learned in different new construction markets led to further process adaptations as well as the development of templates and tools to streamline outreach and technical support efforts. The approach can be adapted to utility new construction programs and is a powerful tool for engaging many building owners early in the project planning process as they make critical energy decisions that impact the performance of the building. The approach has led to real energy savings in building projects by encouraging cost-effective, low-risk, and creative design solutions. The performance-based approach was tested in a variety of applications including different building types and owner types, with many owners adopting performance-based procurement techniques, some with variations, but all maintaining the same core principles. Over the course of the project, nearly 100 building projects were impacted and additional projects will continue to be supported through ongoing program offerings with three leading utilities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

SU-E-T-408: Evaluation of the Type and Frequency of Variations Discovered During Routine Secondary Patient Chart Review

Purpose: Desire to improve efficiency and throughput inspired a review of our physics chart check procedures. Departmental policy mandates plan checks pre-treatment, after first treatment and weekly every 3–5 days. This study examined the effectiveness of the “after first” check with respect to improving patient safety and clinical efficiency. Type and frequency of variations discovered during this redundant secondary review was examined over seven months. Methods: A community spreadsheet was created to record variations in care discovered during chart review following the first fraction of treatment and before the second fraction (each plan reviewed prior to treatment). Entries were recorded from August 2014 through February 2015, amounting to 43 recorded variations out of 906 reviewed charts. The variations were divided into categories and frequencies were assessed month-to-month. Results: Analysis of recorded variations indicates an overall variation rate of 4.7%. The initial rate was 13.5%; months 2–7 average 3.7%. The majority of variations related to discrepancies in documentation at 46.5%, followed by prescription, plan deficiency, and dose tracking related variations at 25.5%, 12.8%, and 12.8%, respectively. Minor variations (negligible consequence on patient treatment) outweighed major variations 3 to 1. Conclusion: This work indicates that this redundant secondary check is effective. The first month spike in rates could be due to the Hawthorne/observer effect, but the consistent 4% variation rate suggests the need for periodical re-training on variations noted as frequent to improve awareness and quality of the initial chart review process, which may lead to improved treatment quality, patient safety and increased clinical efficiency. Utilizing these results, a continuous quality improvement process following Deming’s Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA) methodology was generated. The first iteration of this PDSA was adding a specific dose tracking checklist item in the pre-treatment plan check assessment; the ramification of which will be assessed in future data.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Integrating Variable Renewable Energy in Electric Power Markets: Best Practices from International Experience, Summary for Policymakers

Many countries—reflecting very different geographies, markets, and power systems—are successfully managing high levels of variable renewable energy on the electric grid, including that from wind and solar energy. This document summarizes policy best practices that energy ministers and other stakeholders can pursue to ensure that electricity markets and power systems can effectively coevolvewith increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy. There is no one-size-fits-all approach; each country studied has crafted its own combination of policies, market designs, and system operations to achieve the system reliability and flexibility needed to successfully integrate renewables. Notwithstanding this diversity, the approaches taken by the countries studied all coalesce aroundfive strategic areas: lead public engagement, particularly for new transmission; coordinate and integrate planning; develop rules for market evolution that enable system flexibility; expand access to diverse resources and geographic footprint of operations; and improve system operations. This study also emphatically underscores the value of countries sharing their experiences. The more diverseand robust the experience base from which a country can draw, the more likely that it will be able to implement an appropriate, optimized, and system-wide approach.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Skylab Medical Operations Project: Recommendations to Improve Crew Health and Performance for Future Exploration Missions

From May of 1973 to February of 1974, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration conducted a series of three manned missions to the Skylab space station, a voluminous vehicle largely descendant of Apollo hardware, and America s first space station. The crewmembers of these three manned missions spent record breaking durations of time in microgravity (28 days, 59 days and 84 days, respectively) and gave the U.S. space program its first experiences with long-duration space flight. The program overcame a number of obstacles (including a significant crippling of the Skylab vehicle) to conduct a lauded scientific program that encompassed life sciences, astronomy, solar physics, materials sciences and Earth observation. Skylab has more to offer than the results of its scientific efforts. The operations conducted by the Skylab crews and ground personnel represent a rich legacy of operational experience. As we plan for our return to the moon and the subsequent manned exploration of Mars, it is essential to utilize the experiences and insights of those involved in previous programs. Skylab and SMEAT (Skylab Medical Experiments Altitude Test) personnel have unique insight into operations being planned for the Constellation Program, such as umbilical extra-vehicular activity and water landing/recovery of long-duration crewmembers. Skylab was also well known for its habitability and extensive medical suite; topics which deserve further reflection as we prepare for lunar habitation and missions beyond Earth s immediate sphere of influence. The Skylab Medical Operations Summit was held in January 2008. Crewmembers and medical personnel from the Skylab missions and SMEAT were invited to participate in a two day summit with representatives from the Constellation Program medical operations community. The purpose of the summit was to discuss issues pertinent to future Constellation operations. The purpose of this document is to formally present the recommendations of the Skylab and SMEAT participants.

Polk, James D.↗

Examining Uncertainty in Demand Response Baseline Models and Variability in Automated Response to Dynamic Pricing

Controlling electric loads to deliver power system services presents a number of interesting challenges. For example, changes in electricity consumption of Commercial and Industrial (C&I) facilities are usually estimated using counterfactual baseline models, and model uncertainty makes it difficult to precisely quantify control responsiveness. Moreover, C&I facilities exhibit variability in their response. This paper seeks to understand baseline model error and demand-side variability in responses to open-loop control signals (i.e. dynamic prices). Using a regression-based baseline model, we define several Demand Response (DR) parameters, which characterize changes in electricity use on DR days, and then present a method for computing the error associated with DR parameter estimates. In addition to analyzing the magnitude of DR parameter error, we develop a metric to determine how much observed DR parameter variability is attributable to real event-to-event variability versus simply baseline model error. Using data from 38 C&I facilities that participated in an automated DR program in California, we find that DR parameter errors are large. For most facilities, observed DR parameter variability is likely explained by baseline model error, not real DR parameter variability; however, a number of facilities exhibit real DR parameter variability. In some cases, the aggregate population of C&I facilities exhibits real DR parameter variability, resulting in implications for the system operator with respect to both resource planning and system stability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Automatic Fault Detection & Diagnostics: Residential Market Analysis

This report provides an overview of the market potential for automated fault detection and diagnostics (AFDD) in the residential sector, focusing on embedded AFDD in central air conditioners (CAC) and air-source heat pumps (ASHP) as well as the use of smart diagnostic tools to ensure quality installation of CAC/ASHP equipment. The contents include background on AFDD, stakeholder engagement efforts, a technology assessment of AFDD and smart diagnostic tools, residential CAC and ASHP market trends, a characterization of the CAC and ASHP installed base, a synopsis of utility provider programs, and market barriers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) Study

The Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study investigates the engineering and economic performance of a transactive energy retail market coordinating a high penetration of customer-side flexible energy assets. The study seeks to answer whether such an implementation is cost effective for customers, recovers sufficient revenue for DSOs, and is equally applicable and beneficial to a range of flexible asset types, renewable generation scenarios, and market assumptions. Using a highly interdisciplinary co-simulation and valuation framework, this assessment encompasses the entire electrical delivery system from bulk system generation and transmission, through the distribution system, to the modeling of individual customer buildings and flexible assets (including heating, ventilation, and air conditioning [HVAC] units, water heaters, batteries, and electric vehicles). The study exercises a transactive energy retail market coordination scheme designed to integrate with an existing day-ahead and real-time competitive wholesale electricity market. Software decision-making agents are designed for the retail market operator as well as various price-responsive flexible assets. The engineering and economic performance of the transactive energy scheme is studied for two separate flexible asset deployments: flexible loads (HVAC units and residential water heaters) and behind-the-meter batteries. The results of each transactive case are compared to a business-as-usual case. These cases are subject to two different renewable generation scenarios, a moderate renewable generation scenario, representative of current levels of renewable generation deployment, and a future high renewables scenario, including the increased deployment of rooftop solar photovoltaic and electric vehicles. The transactive coordination scheme is shown to produce effective and stable control and decrease peak loads 9–15%. The resulting annual demand flexibility provides net economic savings of $3.3–5.0B per year for a region the size of Texas. Detailed analysis shows that net benefits were seen for a range of distribution system operator, customer, and flexible asset types. Both participating customer (with transactive flexible assets) and nonparticipating customers (with nonflexible assets) see reductions in annual utility bills and net annual energy expenses in the range of 10–16%.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗