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At least 1,567 records · Page 87

Techno-economic implications and cost of forecasting errors in solar PV power production using optimized deep learning models

Accurate solar Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is important for enhancing both the performance and economic feasibility of PV systems. This study evaluates several deep learning models, including Dense Neural Networks (DNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and a hybrid LSTMCNN model, for predicting PV power production one day in advance. Prior to optimization, the models exhibited relatively high errors, with the best model (DNN) achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 31.13 kW and a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 62.15 %. After employing Bayesian optimization, the LSTM-CNN model demonstrated the best performance, with the RMSE reduced to 9.79 kW and R 2 improved to 97.62 %, showcasing significant enhancement in predictive accuracy. Here, the economic evaluation considered three cases: rewards for underestimation (0.08 USD/kWh), no rewards, and penalties for both over-and underestimation (120 % of the utility tariff). In the rewards scenario, the LSTM-CNN model reduced the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by 4 %, while in the penalty scenario, a backup diesel generator would have increased the LCOE by 49 %. Additionally, the LSTM-CNN model minimized financial losses, achieving the lowest penalties and maximizing net cash flow compared to other models, demonstrating its overall technical and economic superiority.

Deep learning↗

New definitions of pointing stability - ac and dc effects

For most imaging sensors, a constant (dc) pointing error is unimportant (unless large), but time-dependent (ac) errors degrade performance by either distorting or smearing the image. When properly quantified, the separation of the root-mean-square effects of random line-of-sight motions into dc and ac components can be used to obtain the minimum necessary line-of-sight stability specifications. The relation between stability requirements and sensor resolution is discussed, with a view to improving communication between the data analyst and the control systems engineer.

Lucke, Robert L.↗

Optimization by decomposition in structural and multidisciplinary applications

An algorithm for a general, multilevel structural optimization by substructuring is derived, based on the linear decomposition concept that is rooted in the Bellman's Optimality Criterion enhanced with the optimum sensitivity derivatives used as a means to account for coupling among the subproblems, each of which is limited to optimization of a substructure. The algorithm applies also to those multidisciplinary problems whose subproblems form a hierarchy similar to that of substructures. In systems where the subproblems communicate with each other at the same level, the decomposition becomes non-hierarchic and the system may be optimized as a whole based on the derivatives of the system behavior with respect to the design variables computed by a method that bypasses finite differencing on the system analysis. When a multidisciplinary system includes a structure as its part, a hybrid, hierarchic/non-hierarchic decomposition applies. Numerical examples and references to computational experience accumulated to date illustrate the discussion.

Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, Jaroslaw↗

A study of the application of power-spectral methods of generalized harmonic analysis to gust loads on airplanes

The applicability of some results from the theory of generalized harmonic analysis (or power-spectral analysis) to the analysis of gust loads on airplanes in continuous rough air is examined. The general relations for linear systems between power spectrums of a random input disturbance and an output response are used to relate the spectrum of airplane load in rough air to the spectrum of atmospheric gust velocity. The power spectrum of loads is shown to provide a measure of the load intensity in terms of the standard deviation (root mean square) of the load distribution for an airplane in flight through continuous rough air. For the case of a load output having a normal distribution, which appears from experimental evidence to apply to homogeneous rough air, the standard deviation is shown to describe the probability distribution of loads or the proportion of total time that the load has given values. Thus, for airplane in flight through homogeneous rough air, the probability distribution of loads may be determined from a power-spectral analysis. In order to illustrate the application of power-spectral analysis to gust-load analysis and to obtain an insight into the relations between loads and airplane gust-response characteristics, two selected series of calculations are presented. The results indicate that both methods of analysis yield results that are consistent to a first approximation.

Press, Harry↗

Clouding tracing: Visualization of the mixing of fluid elements in convection-diffusion systems

This paper describes a highly interactive method for computer visualization of the basic physical process of dispersion and mixing of fluid elements in convection-diffusion systems. It is based on transforming the vector field from a traditionally Eulerian reference frame into a Lagrangian reference frame. Fluid elements are traced through the vector field for the mean path as well as the statistical dispersion of the fluid elements about the mean position by using added scalar information about the root mean square value of the vector field and its Lagrangian time scale. In this way, clouds of fluid elements are traced and are not just mean paths. We have used this method to visualize the simulation of an industrial incinerator to help identify mechanisms for poor mixing.

Ma, Kwan-Liu↗

Atmospheric pressure loading effects on Global Positioning System coordinate determinations

Earth deformation signals caused by atmospheric pressure loading are detected in vertical position estimates at Global Positioning System (GPS) stations. Surface displacements due to changes in atmospheric pressure account for up to 24% of the total variance in the GPS height estimates. The detected loading signals are larger at higher latitudes where pressure variations are greatest; the largest effect is observed at Fairbanks, Alaska (latitude 65 deg), with a signal root mean square (RMS) of 5 mm. Out of 19 continuously operating GPS sites (with a mean of 281 daily solutions per site), 18 show a positive correlation between the GPS vertical estimates and the modeled loading displacements. Accounting for loading reduces the variance of the vertical station positions on 12 of the 19 sites investigated. Removing the modeled pressure loading from GPS determinations of baseline length for baselines longer than 6000 km reduces the variance on 73 of the 117 baselines investigated. The slight increase in variance for some of the sites and baselines is consistent with expected statistical fluctuations. The results from most stations are consistent with approximately 65% of the modeled pressure load being found in the GPS vertical position measurements. Removing an annual signal from both the measured heights and the modeled load time series leaves this value unchanged. The source of the remaining discrepancy between the modeled and observed loading signal may be the result of (1) anisotropic effects in the Earth's loading response, (2) errors in GPS estimates of tropospheric delay, (3) errors in the surface pressure data, or (4) annual signals in the time series of loading and station heights. In addition, we find that using site dependent coefficients, determined by fitting local pressure to the modeled radial displacements, reduces the variance of the measured station heights as well as or better than using the global convolution sum.

Vandam, Tonie M.↗

Crustal Displacements Due to Continental Water Loading

The effects of long-wavelength (> 100 km), seasonal variability in continental water storage on vertical crustal motions are assessed. The modeled vertical displacements (delta-r(sub M)) have root-mean-square (RMS) values for 1994-1998 as large as 8 mm with ranges up to 30 mm, and are predominantly annual in character. Regional strains are on the order of 20 nanostrain for tilt and 5 nanostrain for horizontal deformation. We compare delta-r(sub M) with observed Global Positioning System (GPS) heights (delta-r(sub O)) (which include adjustments to remove estimated effects of atmospheric pressure and annual tidal and non-tidal ocean loading) for 147 globally distributed sites. When the delta-r(sub O) time series are adjusted by delta-r(sub M), their variances are reduced, on average, by an amount equal to the variance of the delta-r(sub M). Of the delta-r(sub O) time series exhibiting a strong annual signal, more than half are found to have an annual harmonic that is in phase and of comparable amplitude with the annual harmonic in the delta-r(sub M). The delta-r(sub M) time series exhibit long-period variations that could be mistaken for secular tectonic trends or post-glacial rebound when observed over a time span of a few years.

vanDam, T.↗

Exploring for Martian Life

Terrestrial life appears to have arisen very quickly during late accretion, sometime between approximately 3.5 and 4.2 Ga. During this same time, liquid water appears to have been abundant at the surface of Mars and it is quite plausable that life originated there as well. We now believe that the last common ancestor of terrestrial life was a sulfur-metabolizing microbe that lived at high temperatures. Rooting of the RNA tree in thermophily probably reflects high temperature "bottle-necking" of the biosphere by giant impacts during late accretion, sometime after life had originated. If high temperature bottle-necking is a general property of early biosphere development, Martian life may have also developed in close association with hydrothermal systems. Several independent lines of evidence suggest that hydrothermal processes have played an important role during the geological history of Mars. Because hydrothermal deposits on Earth are known to capture and retain abundant microbial fossil information, they are considered prime targets in the search for an ancient Martian biosphere. An important step in planning for future landed missions to Mars is the selection of priority targets for high resolution orbital mapping. Geotectonic terranes on Mars that provide a present focus for ongoing site selection studies include channels located along the margins of impact crater melt sheets, or on the slopes of ancient Martian volcanoes, chaotic and fretted terranes where shallow subsurface heat sources are thought to have interacted with ground ice, and the floors of calderas and rifted basins. Orbital missions in 1996, 1998 and 2001 will provide opportunities for high resolution geological mapping at key sites in such terranes, as a basis for selecting targets for future landed missions for exopaleontology.

Farmer, Jack D.↗

Cryo Cooler Induced Micro-Vibration Disturbances to the Hubble Space Telescope

This paper presents an overview of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Near Infrared Camera and Multi-Object Spectrometer (NICMOS) Cryo Cooler (MCC) system, a description of the micro-vibration characterization testing performed, and a discussion of the simulated performance. The NCC is a reverse Brayton cycle system that employs micro turbo-machinery to provide cooling to the NICMOS instrument. Extensive testing was conducted to quantify the expected on-orbit disturbances caused by the micro turbo-machinery and provide input to a flexible-body dynamic simulation to demonstrate compliance with the HST 7 milli-arcsecond root mean square jitter requirement.

Jedrich, Nick↗

Periodontal Probe Improves Exams, Alleviates Pain

Dentists, comedian Bill Cosby memorably mused, tell you not to pick your teeth with any sharp metal object. Then you sit in their chair, and the first thing they grab is an iron hook!" Conventional periodontal probing is indeed invasive, uncomfortable for the patient, and the results can vary greatly between dentists and even for repeated measurements by the same dentist. It is a necessary procedure, though, as periodontal disease is the most common dental disease, involving the loss of teeth by the gradual destruction of ligaments that hold teeth in their sockets in the jawbone. The disease usually results from an increased concentration of bacteria in the pocket, or sulcus, between the gums and teeth. These bacteria produce acids and other byproducts, which enlarge the sulcus by eroding the gums and the periodontal ligaments. The sulcus normally has a depth of 1 to 2 millimeters, but in patients with early stages of periodontal disease, it has a depth of 3 to 5 millimeters. By measuring the depth of the sulcus, periodontists can have a good assessment of the disease s progress. Presently, there are no reliable clinical indicators of periodontal disease activity, and the best available diagnostic aid, periodontal probing, can only measure what has already been lost. A method for detecting small increments of periodontal ligament breakdown would permit earlier diagnosis and intervention with less costly and time-consuming therapy, while overcoming the problems associated with conventional probing. The painful, conventional method for probing may be destined for the archives of dental history, thanks to the development of ultrasound probing technologies. The roots of ultrasound probes are in an ultrasound-based time-of-flight technique routinely used to measure material thickness and length in the Nondestructive Evaluation Sciences Laboratory at Langley Research Center. The primary applications of that technology have been for corrosion detection and bolt tension measurements (Spinoff 2005). This ultrasound measurement system was adapted to the Periodontal Structures Mapping System, invented at Langley by John A. Companion, under the supervision of Dr. Joseph S. Heyman. Support of the research and development that led to this invention was provided by NASA s Technology Applications Engineering Program and by the Naval Institute for Dental and Biomedical Research, in Great Lakes, Illinois.

Source record↗

Developing a Hydrological Monitoring and Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting System for South and Southeast Asian River Basins

South and Southeast Asia is subject to significant hydrometeorological extremes, including drought. Under rising temperatures, growing populations, and an apparent weakening of the South Asian monsoon in recent decades, concerns regarding drought and its potential impacts on water and food security are on the rise. Reliable sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hydrological forecasts could, in principle, help governments and international organizations to better assess risk and act in the face of an oncoming drought. Here, we leverage recent improvements in S2S meteorological forecasts and the growing power of Earth Observations to provide more accurate monitoring of hydrological states for forecast initialization. Information from both sources is merged in a South and Southeast Asia sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting system (SAHFS-S2S), developed collaboratively with the NASA SERVIR program and end-users across the region. This system applies the Noah-MultiParameterization (NoahMP) Land Surface Model (LSM) in the NASA Land Information System (LIS), driven by downscaled meteorological fields from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation products (CHIRP and CHIRPS) to optimize initial conditions. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model - sub-seasonal to seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecasts, downscaled using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Analog Regression Downscaling (GARD) tool and quantile mapping, are then applied to drive 5-km resolution hydrological forecasts to a 9-month forecast time horizon. Results show that the skillful predictions of root zone soil moisture can be made one to two months in advance for forecasts initialized in rainy seasons and up to 8 months when initialized in dry seasons. The memory of accurate initial conditions can positively contribute to forecast skills throughout the entire 9-month prediction period in areas with limited precipitation. This SAHFS-S2S has been operationalized at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) to support drought monitoring and warning needs in the region.

Yifan Zhou↗

Apptainer Without Setuid

Apptainer (formerly known as Singularity) since its beginning implemented many of its container features with the assistance of a setuid-root program. It still supports that mode, but as of version 1.1.0 it no longer uses setuid by default. This is feasible because it now can mount squash filesystems, mount ext2/3/4 filesystems, and use overlayfs using unprivileged user namespaces and FUSE. It also now enables unprivileged users to build containers, even without requiring system administrators to configure /etc/subuid and /etc/subgid unlike other "rootless" container systems. As a result, all the unprivileged functions can be used nested inside of another container, even if the container runtime prevents any elevated privileges.

Dykstra, Dave↗

Predictive Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification in Condition Monitoring of Active Components: A Reactor Coolant Pump Use Case

This work develops data-driven models for onset of thermal barrier leakage in reactor coolant pumps. It incorporates uncertainty quantification to enhance the reliability and robustness of pre- dictions. Using synthetic data generated by the Generic Pressurized Water Reactor simulator, realistic degradation scenarios were simulated across lifecycle stages—beginning, middle, and end of life. Key variables, including differential pressure, flow rate, vibration, and temperatures, were analyzed using machine learning framework. The fully connected neural network models demonstrated exceptional performance, achieving R2 scores exceeding 0.99 and root mean square errors as low as around 8.23 × 10-2 gallon per minute (gpm) for the three stages of the lifecy- cle. UQ analysis further validated the model’s robustness, with narrow uncertainty bounds during steady-state operations and appropriately wider bounds during transitional phases, reflecting the physical behavior of the system. This work addresses important gaps in real-time condition moni- toring and regulatory compliance by integrating advanced condition monitoring technologies with UQ into IST programs. The ability to detect thermal barrier leakage early and quantify prediction reliability supports optimizing maintenance strategies while ensuring nuclear power plants’ safe and reliable operation.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Controlled environment life support system: Calcium-related leaf injuries on plants

Calcium related injuries to plants grown in controlled environments under conditions which maximize plant growth rates are described. Procedures to encourage movement of calcium into developing leaves of lettuce plants were investigated. The time course and pattern of calcium accumulation was determined to develop effective control procedures for this injury, termed tipburn. Procedures investigated were: (1) increasing the relative humidity to saturation during the dark period and altering root temperatures, (2) maximizing water stress during light and minimizing water stress during dark periods, (3) shortening the light-dark cycle lengths in combination with elevated moisture levels during the dark cycles, (4) reducing nutrient concentrations and (5) vibrating the plants. Saturated humidities at night increased the rate of growth and the large fluctuation in plant water potential encouraged calcium movement to the young leaves and delayed tipburn. Root temperature regulation between 15 and 26 C was not effective in preventing tipburn. Attempts to modulate water stress produced little variation, but no difference in tipburn development. Variations in light-dark cycle lengths also had no effect on calcium concentrations within developing leaves and no variation in tipburn development. Low concentrations of nutrient solution delayed tipburn, presumably because of greater calcium transport in the low concentration plants. Shaking of the plants did not prevent tipburn, but did delay it slightly.

Tibbitts, T. W.↗

Suitability of Gray Water for Hydroponic Crop Production Following Biological and Physical Chemical and Biological Subsystems

The water present in waste streams from a human habitat must be recycled in Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) to limit resupply needs and attain self-sufficiency. Plants play an important role in providing food, regenerating air, and producing purified water via transpiration. However, we have shown that the surfactants present in hygiene waste water have acute toxic effects on plant growth (Bubenheim et al. 1994; Greene et al., 1994). These phytotoxic affects can be mitigated by allowing the microbial population on the root surface to degrade the surfactant, however, a significant suppression (several days) in crop performance is experienced prior to reaching sub-toxic surfactant levels and plant recovery. An effective alternative is to stabilize the microbial population responsible for degradation of the surfactant on an aerobic bioreactor and process the waste water prior to utilization in the hydroponic solution (Wisniewski and Bubenheim, 1993). A sensitive bioassay indicates that the surfactant phytotoxicity is suppressed by more than 90% within 5 hours of introduction of the gray water to the bioreactor; processing for more than 12 hours degrades more than 99% of the phytotoxin. Vapor Compression Distillation (VCD) is a physical / chemical method for water purification which employees sequential distillation steps to separate water from solids and to volatilize contaminants. The solids from the waste water are concentrated in a brine and the pure product water (70 - 90% of the total waste water volume depending on operating conditions) retains non of the phytotoxic effects. Results of the bioassay were used to guide evaluations of the suitability of recovered gray water following biological and VCD processing for hydroponic lettuce production in controlled environments. Lettuce crops were grown for 28 days with 100% of the input water supplied with recovered water from the biological processor or VCD. When compared with the growth of plants in control hydroponic solution containing pure deionized water, no growth difference could be measured resulting from any of the recovered water treatments. Both biological treatment and VCD offer alternative technology approaches to recovering water from waste streams appropriate for input into a crop production system. A high level of crop performance (food, air, and water production) can be maintained with either processor; selection decisions can be based on other factors regarding system integration.

Bubenheim, David L.↗

It's only natural: Plant respiration in unmanaged systems

Abstract Respiration plays a key role in the terrestrial carbon cycle and is a fundamental metabolic process in all plant tissues and cells. We review respiration from the perspective of plants that grow in their natural habitat and how it is influenced by wide-ranging elements at different scales, from metabolic substrate availability to shifts in climate. Decades of field-based measurements have honed our understanding of the biological and environmental controls on leaf, root, stem, and whole-organism respiration. Despite this effort, there remain gaps in our knowledge within and across species and ecosystems, especially in more challenging-to-measure tissues like roots. Recent databases of respiration rates and associated leaf traits from species representing diverse biomes, plant functional types, and regional climates have allowed for a wider-lens view at modeling this important CO2 flux. We also re-analyze published data sets to show that maximum leaf respiration rates (R max) in species from around the globe are related both to leaf economic traits and environmental variables (precipitation and air temperature), but that root respiration does not follow the same latitudinal trends previously published for leaf data. We encourage the ecophysiological community to continue to expand their study of plant respiration in tissues that are difficult to measure and at the whole plant and ecosystem levels to address outstanding questions in the field.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Some estimation formulae for continuous time-invariant linear systems

In this brief paper we examine a Riccati equation decomposition due to Reid and Lainiotis and apply the result to the continuous time-invariant linear filtering problem. Exploitation of the time-invariant structure leads to integration-free covariance recursions which are of use in covariance analyses and in filter implementations. A super-linearly convergent iterative solution to the algebraic Riccati equation (ARE) is developed. The resulting algorithm, arranged in a square-root form, is thought to be numerically stable and competitive with other ARE solution methods. Certain covariance relations that are relevant to the fixed-point and fixed-lag smoothing problems are also discussed.

Bierman, G. J.↗

Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

It is well documented that government agencies do not have the same incentive as the private sector to focus on process effectiveness and continual improvement of those processes. It is also well documented whenever government agencies fail to deliver efficient, effective, consistent, and fair services to the citizens. In spite of the various "reinventing government" and "effectiveness initiatives" of the past decades, and in spite of the efforts on the part of many agencies to improve, government in general still lags behind industry in creating a culture of effective processes and systems. While the tragic events that unfolded recently in Flint, Michigan, teach us that running government "like a business" does not always take the needs of the citizenry into account, there are many lessons and techniques from the private sector that government agencies can use to improve. The incentive to improve, while mandated by various administrations1, needs to come from within the workforce, in order to effectively take root. The best, most effective incentive is to reduce, control or eliminate risk. Government agencies face some of the same risks as the private sector, while some are unique. While ISO 310002 has been around since 2009, risk has taken on increased visibility within the private sector with the advent of the emphasis on risk-based thinking in ISO 9001:20153. The relationship between risk-based thinking and effective processes is simple and direct. Those processes that are well thought out and standardized (i.e. Plan-Do-Check-Act), will have taken into account the applicable policy, statutory, regulatory, safety, quality and technical parameters, which may not occur to someone performing the process with minimal experience or training; and thus protect the employees, the public and the agency from statutory and regulatory violations; delay in providing services; non-delivery of services; harm to public or employee safety and health; cost overruns; breaches in security; loss of confidence in government; failure of publicly funded projects; damage to the environment; ethics violations, and the list goes on; with local, national and even international consequences. The Plan-Do-Check-Act process, also known as the "process approach" can be used at any time to establish and standardize a process, and it can also be used to check periodically for "process creep" (i.e., informal, unauthorized changes that have occurred over time), any necessary updates and improvements. While ISO 9001 compliance is not mandated for all government agencies, if interpreted correctly, it can be useful in establishing a framework and implementing effective management systems and processes.4 Another method that can be used to evaluate effectiveness is the scorecard definitions in Mallory's Process Management Standard5 as a basis for evaluating work on the process level on effective, and continuously improved and improving processes. With processes on the lower end of the scale, agencies are vulnerable to a great many risks, with employees and managers making up many of the rules as they go, leading to the above listed negative results. Without clear guidance for nominal operations, off-nominal situations can, and do, increase the likelihood of chaos. In an increasingly technical environment, with inter-agency communication and collaboration becoming the norm, agencies need to come to grips with the fact that processes can become rapidly outdated, and that the technical community should take on an increased role in the maturation of the agency's processes. Industry has long known that effective processes are also efficient, and process improvement methods such as Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, 5S, and mistake proofing lead to increased productivity, improved quality, and decreased cost. Again, government agencies have different concerns, but inefficiencies and mistakes can have dire and wide reaching consequences for the public that they serve. While no one goes to work planning to cause harm, it is up to agencies to establish upper level systems, which make establishment and compliance with processes possible. Again, Mallory provides us with a Systems Management Standard6, similar to the Process Management Standard, with a scale of 0-5 for systems effectiveness and maturity. Deming determined that "eighty-five percent of the reasons for failure are deficiencies in the systems and process rather than the employee. The role of management is to change the process rather than badgering individual employees to do better." 7 It is not just the working level employees who need effective processes, but the mid-and upper level managers as well. A disciplined management culture sets the tone for the employees, aids both routine and off-nominal decision-making, and incorporates risk -based thinking into the systems and processes as a matter of normal activity. Figure 1, illustrates the relationship between ineffective and effective processes and risk, through the use of the "stoplight" colors that are commonly used to show serious situations (red), situations which may be improving or deteriorating depending on trends (yellow), and situations that are under control and continuously improved (green).

Shepherd, Christena C.↗