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Energy and Water Management

Energy efficiency isn't just a good idea; it's a necessity, both for cost reasons and to meet federal regulatory requirements. First, rising energy unit costs continue to erode NASA's mission budget. NASA spent roughly $156M on facility energy in FY 2007. Although that represents less than one per cent of NASA's overall annual budget, the upward trend in energy costs concerns the agency. While NASA reduced consumption 13%, energy unit costs have risen 63%. Energy cost increases counteract the effects of energy conservation, which results in NASA buying less yet spending more. The second factor is federal energy legislation. The National Energy Conservation Policy Act, as amended by the Energy Policy Act of 2005, Executive Order (EO) 13423 (January, 2007), and the Energy Independence and Security Act (December, 2007), mandates energy/water conservation goals for all federal agencies, including NASA. There are also reporting requirements associated with this legislation. The Energy/Water Management Task was created to support NASA Headquarters Environmental Management Division (HO EMD) in meeting these requirements. With assistance from TEERM, HQ EMD compiled and submitted the NASA Annual Report to the Department of Energy FY 2007. The report contains information on how NASA is meeting federally mandated energy and water management goals. TEERM monitored input for timeliness, errors, and conformity to the new energy/water reporting guidelines and helped compile the information into the final report. TEERM also assists NASA Energy/Water Management with proposal and award calls, updates to the energy/water management database, and facilitating communication within the energy/water management community. TEERM is also supporting NASA and the Interagency Working Group (IWG) on Hydrogen and Fuel Cells. Established shortly after the President announced the Hydrogen Fuel Initiative in 2003, this IWG serves as the mechanism for collaboration among the Federal agencies involved in hydrogen-related research, development, and demonstration. TEERM developed a matrix showing all Hydrogen and Fuel Cell activities from the various NASA centers to be included in the Group's extensive hydrogen research taxonomy of past, present, and future hydrogen activities of the Federal government.

Valek, Susan E.↗

Applied Meteorology Unit Quarterly Report, Second Quarter FY-13

The AMU team worked on six tasks for their customers: (1) Ms. Crawford continued work on the objective lightning forecast task for airports in east-central Florida, and began work on developing a dual-Doppler analysis with local Doppler radars, (2) Ms. Shafer continued work for Vandenberg Air Force Base on an automated tool to relate pressure gradients to peak winds, (3) Dr. Huddleston continued work to develop a lightning timing forecast tool for the Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station area, (4) Dr. Bauman continued work on a severe weather forecast tool focused on east-central Florida, (5) Mr. Decker began developing a wind pairs database for the Launch Services Program to use when evaluating upper-level winds for launch vehicles, and (6) Dr. Watson began work to assimilate observational data into the high-resolution model configurations, she created for Wallops Flight Facility and the Eastern Range.

Bauman, William↗

Investigating Surveillance Performance for UAS Detect-and-Avoid Systems

Most unmanned aircraft systems will be required to be equipped with a detect-and-avoid system that is capable of maintaining appropriate separation from other aircraft. One of the critical components of detect-and-avoid systems is a surveillance system that identifies potential threat aircraft in real time and tracks these aircraft so that their future trajectories may be used to predict conflicts. The performance of the detect-and-avoid system generally depends on technical parameters of the surveillance system, such as the surveillance range. The quantitative requirements for detect-and-avoid systems will be determined to meet safety metrics for the operation of unmanned aircraft systems in the National Airspace System. This study employs a sensor model comprised of the surveillance range, and horizontal and vertical fields of regard that mainly characterize the overall performance of a surveillance system. In this study, potential metrics for evaluating the performance of a surveillance system were investigated through fast-time simulation with a traffic scenario that included both proposed unmanned aircraft flights and historical visual flight rule aircraft tracks. Using the simulation results, an overall analysis of encounter geometry highlights the encounter characteristics that relate surveillance parameters to safety metrics and detect-and-avoid system performance. Then, given several candidate surveillance volumes, performance and safety metrics are derived; these metrics include the ratio of undetected and late-detected violations and the time to violation at first detection. These example metrics demonstrate the utility of the database of encounters created in this work, a database which will be useful in the derivation of required detect-and-avoid surveillance system requirements.

Lee, Seung Man↗

Logistical Consideration in Computer-Based Screening of Astronaut Applicants

This presentation reviews the logistical, ergonomic, and psychometric issues and data related to the development and operational use of a computer-based system for the psychological screening of astronaut applicants. The Behavioral Health and Performance Group (BHPG) at the Johnson Space Center upgraded its astronaut psychological screening and selection procedures for the 1999 astronaut applicants and subsequent astronaut selection cycles. The questionnaires, tests, and inventories were upgraded from a paper-and-pencil system to a computer-based system. Members of the BHPG and a computer programmer designed and developed needed interfaces (screens, buttons, etc.) and programs for the astronaut psychological assessment system. This intranet-based system included the user-friendly computer-based administration of tests, test scoring, generation of reports, the integration of test administration and test output to a single system, and a complete database for past, present, and future selection data. Upon completion of the system development phase, four beta and usability tests were conducted with the newly developed system. The first three tests included 1 to 3 participants each. The final system test was conducted with 23 participants tested simultaneously. Usability and ergonomic data were collected from the system (beta) test participants and from 1999 astronaut applicants who volunteered the information in exchange for anonymity. Beta and usability test data were analyzed to examine operational, ergonomic, programming, test administration and scoring issues related to computer-based testing. Results showed a preference for computer-based testing over paper-and -pencil procedures. The data also reflected specific ergonomic, usability, psychometric, and logistical concerns that should be taken into account in future selection cycles. Conclusion. Psychological, psychometric, human and logistical factors must be examined and considered carefully when developing and using a computer-based system for psychological screening and selection.

Galarza, Laura↗

The Project “Analogs for VENus’s GEologically Recent Surfaces” (AVENGERS): Unveiling Active Volcanism on Venus

The recently selected missions to Venus opened a new era for the exploration of the Earth’s hellish twin sister. One of the key questions that the selected missions to Venus will address is whether the planet is volcanically active. The identification of ongoing volcanic activity on Venus can indeed unveil important clues on the geologic evolution of the planet, also helping us to better understand how volcanic and atmospheric processes work on Earth, especially those related to the climate change produced by greenhouse gases. To fully contextualize the higher resolution datasets to be provided by the future missions to Venus, we need to be able to exploit the wealth of data to be produced in the best possible way. Different types of instruments will indeed perform unprecedent orbiting and in-situ investigations of the surface and subsurface of Venus. To this regard, the Project “Analogs for VENus’s GEologically Recent Surfaces” (AVENGERS) aims to build a comprehensive database of Terrestrial active volcanoes which may act as suitable analogs for identifying ongoing volcanic activity on Venus. To do this, the project AVENGERS will combine the implementation of terrestrial orbiter radar data analysis techniques (i.e., radar interferometry) with infrared and laboratory analyses of lava flow samples from Terrestrial active volcanoes. As a first suitable analog of the Project AVENGERS, we selected Mount Etna in Sicily for a direct comparison with potentially active volcanic structures of Venus, and with Idunn Mons, one of the most promising possibly active volcanoes of Venus. Given its composite nature, Mount Etna offers the opportunity to identify and study multiple types of eruptive products (both effusive and explosive) from the analysis of high-resolution radar images. The frequent eruptions characterizing this volcano will also allow to test techniques of radar interferometry. Moreover, its ease of access facilitates geologic field trips and in-situ investigations with related sample retrieving. Ongoing infrared laboratory analysis on several altered and unaltered samples retrieved by Mount Etna will help to distinguish spectral signatures of fresh vs weathered volcanic deposits.

P. D’Incecco↗

When can we detect lianas from space? Toward a mechanistic understanding of liana‐infested forest optics

Abstract Lianas, woody vines acting as structural parasites of trees, have profound effects on the composition and structure of tropical forests, impacting tree growth, mortality, and forest succession. Remote sensing could offer a powerful tool for quantifying the scale of liana infestation, provided the availability of robust detection methods. We analyze the consistency and global geographic specificity of spectral signals—reflectance across wavelengths—from liana‐infested tree crowns and forest stands, examining the underlying mechanisms of these signals. We compiled a uniquely comprehensive database, including leaf reflectance spectra from 5424 leaves, fine‐scale airborne reflectance data from 999 liana‐infested canopies, and coarse‐scale satellite reflectance data covering 775 ha of liana‐infested forest stands. To unravel the mechanisms of the liana spectral signal, we applied mechanistic radiative transfer models across scales, establishing a synthesis of the relative importance of different mechanisms, which we corroborate with field data on liana leaf chemistry and canopy structure. We find a consistent liana spectral signal at canopy and stand scales across globally distributed sites. This signature mainly arises at the canopy level due to direct effects of more horizontal leaf angles, resulting in a larger projected leaf area, and indirect effects from increased light scattering in the near and short‐wave infrared regions, linked to lianas' less costly leaf construction compared with trees on average. The existence of a consistent global spectral signal for lianas suggests that large‐scale quantification of liana infestation is feasible. However, because the traits responsible for the liana canopy‐reflectance signal are not exclusive to lianas, accurate large‐scale detection requires rigorously validated remote sensing methods. Our models highlight challenges in automated detection, such as potential misidentification due to leaf phenology, tree life history, topography, and climate, especially where the scale of liana infestation is less than a single remote sensing pixel. The observed cross‐site patterns also prompt ecological questions about lianas' adaptive similarities in optical traits across environments, indicating possible convergent evolution due to shared constraints on leaf biochemical and structural traits.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Machine learning in nuclear materials research

Nuclear materials are often demanded to function for extended time in extreme environments, including high radiation fluxes with associated transmutations, high temperature and temperature gradients, mechanical stresses, and corrosive coolants. They also have a wide range of microstructural and chemical makeups, resulting in multifaceted and often out-of-equilibrium interactions. Machine learning (ML) is increasingly being used to tackle these complex time-dependent interactions and aid researchers in developing models and making predictions, sometimes with better accuracy than traditional modeling that focuses on one or two parameters at a time. Conventional practices of acquiring new experimental data in nuclear materials research are often slow and expensive, limiting the opportunity for data-centric ML, but new methods are changing that paradigm. Here we review high-throughput computational and experimental data approaches, especially robotic experimentation and active learning that is based on Gaussian process and Bayesian optimization. We show ML examples in structural materials (e.g., reactor pressure vessel (RPV) alloys and radiation detecting scintillating materials) and highlight new techniques of high-throughput sample preparation and characterizations, and automated radiation/environmental exposures and real-time online diagnostics. Herein, this review suggests that ML models of material constitutive relations in plasticity, damage, and even electronic and optical responses to radiation are likely to become powerful tools as they develop. Finally, we speculate on how the recent trends of using natural language processing (NLP) to aid the collection and analysis of literature data, interpretable artificial intelligence (AI), and the use of streamlined scripting, database, workflow management, and cloud computing platforms that will soon make the utilization of ML techniques as commonplace as the spreadsheet curve-fitting practices of today.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Global analysis of the high temperature infrared emission spectrum of {sup 12}CH{sub 4} in the dyad (ν{sub 2}/ν{sub 4}) region

We report new assignments of vibration-rotation line positions of methane ({sup 12}CH{sub 4}) in the so-called dyad (ν{sub 2}/ν{sub 4}) region (1100–1500 cm{sup −1}), and the resulting update of the vibration-rotation effective model of methane, previously reported by Nikitin et al. [Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys. 15, 10071 (2013)], up to and including the tetradecad. High resolution (0.01 cm{sup −1}) emission spectra of methane have been recorded up to about 1400 K using the high-enthalpy source developed at Institut de Physique de Rennes associated with the Fourier transform spectrometer of the SOLEIL synchrotron facility (AILES beamline). Analysis of these spectra allowed extending rotational assignments in the well-known cold band (dyad-ground state (GS)) and related hot bands in the pentad–dyad system (3000 cm{sup −1}) up to J{sub max} = 30 and 29, respectively. In addition, 8512 new transitions belonging to the octad–pentad (up to J = 28) and tetradecad-octad (up to J = 21) hot band systems were successfully identified. As a result, the MeCaSDa database of methane was significantly improved. The line positions assigned in this work, together with the information available in the literature, were fitted using 1096 effective parameters with a dimensionless standard deviation σ = 2.09. The root mean square deviations d{sub RMS} are 3.60 × 10{sup −3} cm{sup −1} for dyad-GS cold band, 4.47 ×10{sup −3} cm{sup −1} for the pentad–dyad, 5.43 × 10{sup −3} cm{sup −1} for the octad–pentad, and 4.70 × 10{sup −3} cm{sup −1} for the tetradecad–octad hot bands. The resulting new line list will contribute to improve opacity and radiative transfer models for hot atmospheres, such as those of hot-Jupiter type exoplanets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Report on the Initial Fundamental Sodium-CO 2 Interaction Experiment

The U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE) Advanced Reactor Concepts (ARC) Program is developing the Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) as a reactor that could dramatically improve performance in sustainability, safety, economics, security, and proliferation resistance. The near-term Program goal is to reduce technical barriers to improve the prospects of advanced technology reactor systems. In the long-term, integrated advanced reactor system designs will be developed that implement the chosen missions and complete the testing and demonstration necessary for licensing. The supercritical carbon dioxide (S-CO 2 ) Brayton cycle, coupled with an SFR, has been identified as a new and innovative energy conversion technology that could contribute to meeting these objectives especially in terms of improving economics. One appealing feature of this energy conversion system is the smaller footprint that the hardware requires relative to the traditional superheated steam cycle, which is in part due to the use of Printed Circuit Heat Exchanger TM (PCHE TM ) compact diffusion-bonded heat exchangers as the heat source heat exchanger (sodium-to-CO 2 ) as well as the recuperator and cooler modules. Although PCHEs have a high degree of structural integrity, the potential for leaks to develop between the sodium and CO 2 coolant channels in the secondary heat exchanger cannot be ruled out, leading to discharge of high pressure CO2 into the secondary coolant circuit. Due to the robustness of the PCHE design, catastrophic failure leading to CO2 jet blowdown into the intermediate sodium loop is not deemed likely. Rather, small cracks (or micro-leaks) may develop in which CO 2 will bleed into the secondary system at a relatively low rate and chemically react with the sodium. The 2012 Sodium Fast Reactor Research Plan produced by Sandia National Laboratory (Denman et al., 2012) identified the interaction between sodium and CO 2 as being among the highest priority areas of research for SFR accident initiators. In fact, the report rated both the experimental database and modeling capabilities of Na-CO 2 interactions at the lowest current state of knowledge compared with the other listed high-priority accident initiator items. In recognition of the anticipated failure mode for a PCHE sodium-to-CO 2 heat exchanger, an Argonne experiment program, called SNAKE, was initiated in FY 2010 to investigate the reaction characteristics between sodium and CO 2 under micro-leak conditions.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Non-residential Electricity Prices: A Review of Data Sources and Estimation Methods

This paper presents a review of electricity price data sources and estimation methods for non-residential consumers, including a detailed empirical study of tariff-based prices collected as part of Lawrence Berkeley Lab's Tariff Analysis Project (TAP). We compare the TAP data to two other data sources: utility-level annual sales, revenues and consumer counts published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the Typical Bills reports published by the Edison Electric Institute. A brief overview of the types of rate structures included in the TAP database illustrates the often complex relationship between the consumer's energy use and the costs they see on their electricity bills. We provide mathematical definitions of the different types of electricity price that are useful in cost-benefit analysis, construct estimation methods appropriate to each data set, compare the results, and evaluate the relative strengths and weaknesses of each approach. We also examine how price variation is driven by differences in season, region, industry business model, and variables characterizing consumer energy use. Tables of regional price estimates for each data source, based on 2015 data, are included in the Appendix to this paper.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Automatic labeling and characterization of objects using artificial neural networks

Existing NASA supported scientific data bases are usually developed, managed and populated in a tedious, error prone and self-limiting way in terms of what can be described in a relational Data Base Management System (DBMS). The next generation Earth remote sensing platforms, i.e., Earth Observation System, (EOS), will be capable of generating data at a rate of over 300 Mbs per second from a suite of instruments designed for different applications. What is needed is an innovative approach that creates object-oriented databases that segment, characterize, catalog and are manageable in a domain-specific context and whose contents are available interactively and in near-real-time to the user community. Described here is work in progress that utilizes an artificial neural net approach to characterize satellite imagery of undefined objects into high-level data objects. The characterized data is then dynamically allocated to an object-oriented data base where it can be reviewed and assessed by a user. The definition, development, and evolution of the overall data system model are steps in the creation of an application-driven knowledge-based scientific information system.

Campbell, William J.↗

Deep near-infrared survey of the Southern Sky (DENIS)

DENIS (Deep Near-Infrared Survey of the Southern Sky) will be the first complete census of astronomical sources in the near-infrared spectral range. The challenges of this novel survey are both scientific and technical. Phenomena radiating in the near-infrared range from brown dwarfs to galaxies in the early stages of cosmological evolution, the scientific exploitation of data relevant over such a wide range requires pooling expertise from several of the leading European astronomical centers. The technical challenges of a project which will provide an order of magnitude more sources than given by the IRAS space mission, and which will involve advanced data-handling and image-processing techniques, likewise require pooling of hardware and software resources, as well as of human expertise. The DENIS project team is composed of some 40 scientists, computer specialists, and engineers located in 5 European Community countries (France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, and Spain), with important contributions from specialists in Australia, Brazil, Chile, and Hungary. DENIS will survey the entire southern sky in 3 colors, namely in the I band at a wavelength of 0.8 micron, in the 1.25 micron J band, and in the 2.15 micron K' band. The sensitivity limits will be 18th magnitude in the I band, 16th in the J band, and 14.5th in the K' band. The angular resolution achieved will be 1 arcsecond in the I band, and 3.0 arcseconds in the J and K' bands. The European Southern Observatory 1 m telescope on La Silla will be dedicated to survey use during operations expected to last four years, commencing in late 1993. DENIS aims to provide the astronomical community with complete digitized infrared images of the full southern sky and a catalogue of extracted objects, both of the best quality and in readily accessible form. This will be achieved through dedicated software packages and specialized catalogues, and with assistance from the Leiden and Paris Data Analysis Centers. The data will be mailed on DAT tapes from La Silla to the two Data Analysis Centers for further processing. Two centers are necessary because of the shear quantity of data and because of the complementary roles the Centers will develop, each exploiting its own particular expertise. The Leiden Data Analysis Center (LDAC) will extract objects, establish their parameters, and archive them into a source catalogue. The LDAC will collaborate with the Groningen Space Research group that has gained experience in infrared image handling from the IRAS satellite. The Paris Data Analysis Center (PDAC) will be responsible for archiving and preprocessing the raw data to provide a homogeneous set of data suitable for further reduction in both the Leiden and Paris data analysis streams. The PDAC will also extract and archive images for the sources flagged by the LDAC as extended, and create a catalogue of galaxies. In exploiting the DENIS data we foresee the collaboration with other data analysis centers, such as the Observatoire de Lyon where the relevant DENIS catalogue of galaxies can be incorporated into their extragalactic database. The Point Sources and the Small Extended Sources catalogues could be incorporated in the Late Type Star database at Montpellier, and in the SIMBAD database as CDS. At Groningen the IRAS Point Source catalogue and/or image data can be merged with the DENIS catalogues. At Meudon algorithms and software will be developed with main goal assessing the limits reachable for the homogeneity and intrinsic consistency between the ensemble of the images in the data base (flat-fielding, relative positioning of the fields, bootstrapped flux calibration) but also for the data analysis.

Deul, E.↗

A Note on Interfacing Object Warehouses and Mass Storage Systems for Data Mining Applications

Data mining is the automatic discovery of patterns, associations, and anomalies in data sets. Data mining requires numerically and statistically intensive queries. Our assumption is that data mining requires a specialized data management infrastructure to support the aforementioned intensive queries, but because of the sizes of data involved, this infrastructure is layered over a hierarchical storage system. In this paper, we discuss the architecture of a system which is layered for modularity, but exploits specialized lightweight services to maintain efficiency. Rather than use a full functioned database for example, we use light weight object services specialized for data mining. We propose using information repositories between layers so that components on either side of the layer can access information in the repositories to assist in making decisions about data layout, the caching and migration of data, the scheduling of queries, and related matters.

Grossman, Robert L.↗

Real Time Monitoring of Flooding from Microwave Satellite Observations

We have developed a new method for making high-resolution flood extent maps (e.g., at the 30-100 m scale of digital elevation models) in real-time from low-resolution (20-70 km) passive microwave observations. The method builds a "flood-potential" database from elevations and historic flood imagery and uses it to create a flood-extent map consistent with the observed open water fraction. Microwave radiometric measurements are useful for flood monitoring because they sense surface water in clear-or-cloudy conditions and can provide more timely data (e.g., compared to radars) from relatively wide swath widths and an increasing number of available platforms (DMSP, ADEOS-II, Terra, NPOESS, GPM). The chief disadvantages for flood mapping are the radiometers' low resolution and the need for local calibration of the relationship between radiances and open-water fraction. We present our method for transforming microwave sensor-scale open water fraction estimates into high-resolution flood extent maps and describe 30-day flood map sequences generated during a retrospective study of the 1993 Great Midwest Flood. We discuss the method's potential improvement through as yet unimplemented algorithm enhancements and expected advancements in microwave radiometry (e.g., improved resolution and atmospheric correction).

Galantowicz, John F.↗

Near Earth Asteroid Characterization for Threat Assessment

Physical characteristics of NEAs are an essential input to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry and to assess the risk of impact but determining these properties requires a non-trivial investment of time and resources. The characteristics relevant to these models include size, density, strength and ablation coefficient. Some of these characteristics cannot be directly measured, but rather must be inferred from related measurements of asteroids and/or meteorites. Furthermore, for the majority of NEAs, only the basic measurements exist so often properties must be inferred from statistics of the population of more completely characterized objects. The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project at NASA Ames Research Center has developed a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) model in order to assess the risk of asteroid impact. Our PAIR model and its use to develop probability distributions of impact risk are discussed in other contributions to PDC 2017 (e.g., Mathias et al.). Here we utilize PAIR to investigate which NEA characteristics are important for assessing the impact threat by investigating how changes in these characteristics alter the damage predicted by PAIR. We will also provide an assessment of the current state of knowledge of the NEA characteristics of importance for asteroid threat assessment. The relative importance of different properties as identified using PAIR will be combined with our assessment of the current state of knowledge to identify potential high impact investigations. In addition, we will discuss an ongoing effort to collate the existing measurements of NEA properties of interest to the planetary defense community into a readily accessible database.

Asteroid characterization↗

Venous Gas Embolism: Review to Quantify a Safe Volume of Air in Intravenous Fluids Bags for Spaceflight Applications

INTRODUCTION: The ability to create intravenous fluids (IVF) in-situ from the potable water supply of a spaceflight vehicle or habitat is a desired capability for an exploration medical system. In order to define an acceptable volume of air in IVF bags, an understanding of the volume of venous gas embolism as it relates to negative outcomes is needed. The purpose of this study is to review the literature to determine if there is a known volume of gas that contributes to mortality and/or morbidity that could be used to define requirements for rapid IVF infusion in microgravity. METHODS: A literature review was conducted of the PubMed database using the syntax: (Venous) AND (Gas OR Air) AND (Embolism) AND (Morbidity) AND (Mortality) AND (Volume) as well as manual review of references from relevant articles. 151 articles were screened excluding partial text and pediatric articles. Studies were reviewed for identification of volume of venous gas embolism associated with morbidity and/or mortality, which identified 27 articles. RESULTS: Reviewed literature included animal studies, case reports, and review articles. A high variation of proposed volumes contributing to mortality was reported. The limited human data values ranged from 20 ml to 200 ml of infused air with mortality estimated to be 48 – 80%. No studies evaluated human morbidity in any capacity. DISCUSSION: The lack of consensus on the safe volume of infused air has potential ramifications for IVF use in spaceflight as current technologies to create IVF from potable water may introduce air in IVF bags. While current microgravity infusion protocols call for the use of inline air removal filters, commercially available options have flow rate limitations that preclude rapid infusion in a resuscitation scenario. Such filters may be used in parallel to increase flow rate, but the time required to set up such a system may exclude its use during a medical emergency. Additionally, these consumable filters drive up the overall mass and volume of the medical system. Identification of a safe volume of air in IVF would allow for guidelines for the in-situ production of IVF in future spaceflight vehicles/habitats.

Christopher R Woodard↗

An Analytical Impact Assessment Framework for Wildlife to Inform the Siting and Permitting of Wind Energy Facilities

In the United States overall electrical generation capacity is expected to increase by 10-25 gigawatts (GW) per year to meet increases in demand. Wind energy is a key component of state and federal renewable energy standards, and central to the Department of Energy’s 20% by 2030 wind production goals. Increased wind energy development may present increased resource conflict with avian wildlife, and environmental permitting has been identified as a potential obstacle to expansion in the sector. ICF developed an analytical framework to help applicants and agencies examine potential impacts in support of facility siting and permitting. A key objective of our work was to develop a framework that is scalable from the local to the national level, and one that is generalizable across the different scales at which biological communities operate – from local influences to meta-populations. The intent was to allow natural resource managers to estimate the cumulative impacts of turbine strikes and habitat changes on long-term population performance in the context of a species demography, genetic potential, and life history. We developed three types of models based on our literature review and participation in the scientific review processes. First, the conceptual model was developed as a general description of the analytical framework. Second, we developed the analytical framework based on the relationships between concepts, and the functions presented in the scientific literature. Third, we constructed an application of the model by parameterizing the framework using data from and relevant to the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (APWRA), and an existing golden eagle population model. We developed managed source code, database create statements, and written documentation to allow for the reproduction of each phase of the analysis. ICF identified a potential template adaptive management system in the form of the US Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS) Adaptive Harvest Management (AHM) program, and developed recommendations for the structure and function of a similar wind-facility related program. We provided a straw-man implementation of the analytical framework based on assumptions for APWRA-wide golden eagle fatalities, and presented a statistical examination of the model performance. APWRA-wide fatality rates appear substantial at all scales examined from the local APWRA population to the Bird Conservation Region. Documented fatality rates significantly influenced population performance in terms of non-territorial non-breeding birds. Breeder, Juvenile, Subadult, and Adult abundance were mostly unaffected by Baseline APWRA-wide fatality rates. However, increased variability in fatality rates would likely have impacts on long-term population performance, and would result in a substantially larger loss of resources. We developed four recommendations for future study. First, we recommend establishment of concept experts through the existing system of non-profits, regulatory agencies, academia, and industry in the wind energy sector. Second, we recommend the development of a central or distributed shared data repository, and establish guidelines for data sharing and transparency. Third, we recommend development a forum and process for model selection at the local and national level. Last, we recommend experimental implementation of the prescribed system at broader scales, and refinement the expectations for modeling and adaptive management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗