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At least 1,567 records · Page 87

Advanced design for orbital debris removal in support of solar system exploration

The development of an Autonomous Space Processor for Orbital Debris (ASPOD) is the ultimate goal. The craft will process, in situ, orbital debris using resources available in low Earth orbit (LEO). The serious problem of orbital debris is briefly described and the nature of the large debris population is outlined. This year, focus was on development of a versatile robotic manipulator to augment an existing robotic arm; incorporation of remote operation of robotic arms; and formulation of optimal (time and energy) trajectory planning algorithms for coordinating robotic arms. The mechanical design of the new arm is described in detail. The versatile work envelope is explained showing the flexibility of the new design. Several telemetry communication systems are described which will enable the remote operation of the robotic arms. The trajectory planning algorithms are fully developed for both the time-optimal and energy-optimal problem. The optimal problem is solved using phase plane techniques while the energy optimal problem is solved using dynamics programming.

Source record↗

Precision orbit determination for TOPEX/POSEIDON

The TOPEX/POSEIDON mission objective requires that the radial position of the spacecraft be determined with an accuracy better than 13 cm RMS (root mean square). This stringent requirement is an order of magnitude below the accuracy achieved for any altimeter mission prior to the definition of the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission. To satislfy this objective, the TOPEX Precision Orbit determination (POD) Team was established as a joint effort between the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and the University of Texas at Austin, with collaboration from the University of Colorado and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. During the prelaunch development and the post launch verification phases, the POD team improved, calibrated, and validated the precision orbit determination computer software systems. The accomplishments include (1) increased accuracy of the gravity and surface force models and (2) improved peformance of both laser ranging and Doppler tracking systems. The result of these efforts led to orbit accuracies for TOPEX/POSEIDON which are significantly better than the original mission requirement. Tests based on data fits, covariance analysis, and orbit comparisons indicate that the radial component of the TOPEX/POSEIDON spacecraft is determined, relative to the Earth's mass center, with an root mean square (RMS) error in the range of 3 to 4 cm RMS. This orbit accuracy, together with the near continuous dual-frequency altimetry from this mission, provides the means to determine the ocean's dynamic topography with an unprecedented accuracy.

Tapley, B. D.↗

Compressible 2D Flow Field Interaction of Two Contra-Rotating Blades

The blades of coaxial, contra-rotating rotor systems cross each other in close proximity and at high relative speeds. This crossing event is a potential source of noise and severe blade loads. Effects of compressibility can aggravate the interaction and significantly alter the pressure field signature and phase relationships. A 2-D analysis of this phenomenon is performed by simulating two airfoils passing each other at specified speeds and vertical separation distances. Several test cases spanning a relevant range of Reynolds numbers, angles of attack, and relative Mach number are considered. The Mach number is varied to simulate the radial variation of velocity from the root to tip of a rotor blade to capture the pressure signature, lift, and drag of the airfoils. The velocity and pressure distributions on the airfoils, and in the space between the airfoils are computed before, at, and after airfoil crossing. The variations of lift and drag coefficients through the interaction are captured. The upper airfoil experiences an increase in lift followed by a very sharp drop in lift during the interaction. When relative Mach numbers are transonic, the region of interaction is greatly extended, with shock interactions occurring. The results show the complex nature of the aerodynamic and fluid dynamic impulses generated by blade-blade interactions, with implications to aeroelastic loads and aeroacoustic sources.

Barbely, Natasha L.↗

The Bloch equation for spin dynamics in electron storage rings: Computational and theoretical aspects

In this paper, we describe our work on spin polarization in high-energy electron storage rings which we base on the Full Bloch equation (FBE) for the polarization density and which aims towards the [Formula: see text] option of the proposed Future Circular Collider (FCC-ee) and the proposed Circular Electron Positron Collider (CEPC). The FBE takes into account non spin-flip and spin-flip effects due to synchrotron radiation including the spin-diffusion effects and the Sokolov–Ternov effect with its Baier–Katkov generalization as well as the kinetic-polarization effect. This mathematical model is an alternative to the standard mathematical model based on the Derbenev–Kondratenko formulas. For our numerical and analytical studies of the FBE, we develop an approximation to the latter to obtain an effective FBE. This is accomplished by finding a third mathematical model based on a system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) underlying the FBE and by approximating that system via the method of averaging from perturbative ODE theory. We also give an overview of our algorithm for numerically integrating the effective FBE. This discretizes the phase space using spectral methods and discretizes time via the additive Runge–Kutta (ARK) method which is a high-order semi-implicit method. We also discuss the relevance of the third mathematical model for spin tracking.

Physics↗

Multiscale low-frequency circulation modes in the global atmosphere

In this paper, fundamental multiscale circulation modes in the global atmosphere are identified with the objective of providing better understanding of atmospheric low-frequency variabilities over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. With the use of a combination of rotated principal component technique, singular spectrum analysis, and phase space portraits, three categories of basic multiscale modes in the atmosphere are found. The first is the interannual-mode (IAM), which is dominated by time scales longer than a year and can be attributed to heating and circulation anomalies associated with the coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere, in particular the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The second is a set of tropical intraseasonal modes consisting of three separate multiscale patterns (ISO-1, -2, -3) related to tropical heating that can be identified with the different phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), including its teleconnection to the extratropics. The ISO spatial and temporal patterns suggest that the extratropical wave train in the North Pacific and North America is related to heating over the Maritime Continent and that the evolution of the MJO around the equator may require forcing from the extratropics spawning convection over the Indian Ocean. The third category represents extratropical intraseasonal oscillations arising from internal dynamics of the basic-state circulation. In the Northern Hemisphere, there are two distinct circulation modes with multiple frequencies in this category: the Pacific/North America (PNA) and the North Atlantic/Eurasia (NAE). In the Southern Hemisphere, two phase-locked modes (PSA-1 and PSA-2) are found depicting an eastward propagating wave train from eastern Australia, via the Pacific South America to the South Atlantic. The extratropical modes exhibit temporal characteristics such as phase locking and harmonic oscillations possibly associated with quadratically nonlinear dynamical systems. Additionally, the observed monthly and seasonal anomalies arise from a complex interplay of the various multiscale low-frequency modes. The relative dominance of the different modes varies widely from month to month and from year to year. On the monthly time scale, while one or two mechanisms may dominate in one year, no single mechanism seems to dominate for all years. There are indications that when the IAM, that is, ENSO heating patterns are strong, the extratropical modes may be suppressed and vice versa. For the seasonal mean, the interannual mode tends to dominate and the contribution from the PNA remains quite significant.

Lau, K.-M.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, August 2012

Topics covered include: Mars Science Laboratory Drill; Ultra-Compact Motor Controller; A Reversible Thermally Driven Pump for Use in a Sub-Kelvin Magnetic Refrigerator; Shape Memory Composite Hybrid Hinge; Binding Causes of Printed Wiring Assemblies with Card-Loks; Coring Sample Acquisition Tool; Joining and Assembly of Bulk Metallic Glass Composites Through Capacitive Discharge; 670-GHz Schottky Diode-Based Subharmonic Mixer with CPW Circuits and 70-GHz IF; Self-Nulling Lock-in Detection Electronics for Capacitance Probe Electrometer; Discontinuous Mode Power Supply; Optimal Dynamic Sub-Threshold Technique for Extreme Low Power Consumption for VLSI; Hardware for Accelerating N-Modular Redundant Systems for High-Reliability Computing; Blocking Filters with Enhanced Throughput for X-Ray Microcalorimetry; High-Thermal-Conductivity Fabrics; Imidazolium-Based Polymeric Materials as Alkaline Anion-Exchange Fuel Cell Membranes; Electrospun Nanofiber Coating of Fiber Materials: A Composite Toughening Approach; Experimental Modeling of Sterilization Effects for Atmospheric Entry Heating on Microorganisms; Saliva Preservative for Diagnostic Purposes; Hands-Free Transcranial Color Doppler Probe; Aerosol and Surface Parameter Retrievals for a Multi-Angle, Multiband Spectrometer LogScope; TraceContract; AIRS Maps from Space Processing Software; POSTMAN: Point of Sail Tacking for Maritime Autonomous Navigation; Space Operations Learning Center; OVERSMART Reporting Tool for Flow Computations Over Large Grid Systems; Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of Particle-Laden Temporal Mixing Layers; Projection of Stabilized Aerial Imagery Onto Digital Elevation Maps for Geo-Rectified and Jitter-Free Viewing; Iterative Transform Phase Diversity: An Image-Based Object and Wavefront Recovery; 3D Drop Size Distribution Extrapolation Algorithm Using a Single Disdrometer; Social Networking Adapted for Distributed Scientific Collaboration; General Methodology for Designing Spacecraft Trajectories; Hemispherical Field-of-View Above-Water Surface Imager for Submarines; and Quantum-Well Infrared Photodetector (QWIP) Focal Plane Assembly.

Source record↗

CFD Modeling & Validation of Single Bubble Growth During Cavitation in Zero Gravity

Cryogenic Fluid Management (CFM) in zero gravity represents a vital area of research as NASA pursues future long-duration space missions. Success of these missions relies heavily on the ability to store and transfer the cryogenic liquid fuels efficiently and safely. In the Zero Boil-Off Tank (ZBOT-1) Experiment in 2018, unexpected and intense phase change occurred at the screened Liquid Acquisition Device (LAD) during tank pressure control that was later attributed to cavitation. The cavitation ultimately resulted in pump failure. Since cryogen cavitation during storage and transfer of propellants in microgravity has been a source of serious concern for the aerospace community, a series of drop tower experiments with liquid methane were also performed at the University of Bremen to carefully study cavitation from a single bubble nucleus in an engineered micron-sized wall cavity. As the test cell is depressurized during the 10-second drop, cavitation causes bubble growth from the nucleus. Here, in a collaboration between the Case Western Reserve University and University of Bremen, we present a two-phase Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model of bubble growth from a single wall cavity during depressurization in microgravity. Both 2D axisymmetric and 3D parametric simulation case studies are performed to show the evolution of the bubble growth. The model uses a Volume of Fluid (VOF) approach with and without adaptive mesh refinement and adaptive time stepping to capture the growth dynamics using an explicit formulation with algebraic reconstruction of the interface. CFD results show good agreement with corresponding experiment. Based on the velocity, temperature, and volume fraction fields generated by the validation case studies, detailed discussion and analysis of fluid flow and heat transfer during bubble growth process are presented to delineate the intricacies of the cavitation process. Strengths and shortcomings of the present numerical approach in capturing this phenomenon are also highlighted.

Two Phase Flow↗

Subsonic Ultra Green Aircraft Research: Phase II- Volume III-Truss Braced Wing Aeroelastic Test Report

This Test Report summarizes the Truss Braced Wing (TBW) Aeroelastic Test (Task 3.1) work accomplished by the Boeing Subsonic Ultra Green Aircraft Research (SUGAR) team, which includes the time period of February 2012 through June 2014. The team consisted of Boeing Research and Technology, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Virginia Tech, and NextGen Aeronautics. The model was fabricated by NextGen Aeronautics and designed to meet dynamically scaled requirements from the sized full scale TBW FEM. The test of the dynamically scaled SUGAR TBW half model was broken up into open loop testing in December 2013 and closed loop testing from January 2014 to April 2014. Results showed the flutter mechanism to primarily be a coalescence of 2nd bending mode and 1st torsion mode around 10 Hz, as predicted by analysis. Results also showed significant change in flutter speed as angle of attack was varied. This nonlinear behavior can be explained by including preload and large displacement changes to the structural stiffness and mass matrices in the flutter analysis. Control laws derived from both test system ID and FEM19 state space models were successful in suppressing flutter. The control laws were robust and suppressed flutter for a variety of Mach, dynamic pressures, and angle of attacks investigated.

Bradley, Marty K.↗

Observations of Deep Ionospheric F-Region Density Depletions with FPMU Instrumentation and their Relationship with the Global Dynamics of the June 22-23, 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

The magnetic storm that commenced on June 22, 2015 was one of the largest storms in the current solar cycle, resulting from an active region on the Sun that produced numerous coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and associated interplanetary shock waves. On June 22 at 18:36 UT the magnetosphere was impacted by the leading-edge shock wave and a sheath carrying a large and highly variable interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with values ranging from +25 to -40 nT. During the subsequent interval from 0000 to 0800 UT, there was a second intensification of the geomagnetic storm resulting from the impact of the CME. We present dramatic responses of simultaneous particle measurements from the high-altitude Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) at high altitudes in the magnetosphere (approx. 9-12 Re) and from the low-altitude (F-region) Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) on board the International Space Station (ISS). We analyze potential causes of these dramatic particle flux dropouts by putting them in the context of storm-time electrodynamics, and support our results with numerical simulations of the global magnetosphere and ionosphere. During the sheath phase of the storm, the MMS spacecraft in the near-earth equatorial plane observed a rapid reconfiguration of the magnetic field near 1923 UT. Initially in the warm plasmasheet, particle flux dropouts were observed as they tracked the plasma-sheet to lobe transitions with the stretching and thinning of the plasmasheet. Anti-sunward flowing O+ ions of ionospheric origin were also measured during this period, confirming that the MMS spacecraft temporarily was in a lobe.

Coffey, Victoria↗

Observations of Deep Ionospheric F-Region Density Depletions with FPMU Instrumentation and Their Relationship with the Global Dynamics of the June 22-23, 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

The magnetic storm that commenced on June 22, 2015 was one of the largest storms in the current solar cycle, resulting from an active region on the Sun that produced numerous coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and associated interplanetary shock waves. On June 22 at 18:36 UT the magnetosphere was impacted by the leading-edge shock wave and a sheath carrying a large and highly variable interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with values ranging from +25 to -40 nT. During the subsequent interval from 0000 to 0800 UT, there was a second intensification of the geomagnetic storm resulting from the impact of the CME. We present dramatic responses of simultaneous particle measurements from the high-altitude Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) at high altitudes in the magnetosphere (approx. 9-12 Re) and from the low-altitude (F-region) Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) on board the International Space Station (ISS). We analyze potential causes of these dramatic particle flux dropouts by putting them in the context of storm-time electrodynamics, and support our results with numerical simulations of the global magnetosphere and ionosphere. During the sheath phase of the storm, the MMS spacecraft in the near-earth equatorial plane observed a rapid reconfiguration of the magnetic field near 1923 UT. Initially in the warm plasma sheet, particle flux dropouts were observed as they tracked the plasma-sheet to lobe transitions with the stretching and thinning of the plasma sheet. Anti-sunward flowing O+ ions of ionospheric origin were also measured during this period, confirming that the MMS spacecraft temporarily was in a lobe.

Coffey, Victoria↗

Microscopic Mechanisms of Glasslike Lattice Thermal Transport in Cubic Cu 12 Sb 4 S 13 Tetrahedrites

Materials based on cubic tetrahedrites (Cu 12 Sb 4 S 13 ) are useful thermoelectrics with unusual thermal and electrical transport properties, such as very low and nearly temperature-independent lattice thermal conductivity (κ L ). We explain the microscopic origin of the glasslike κ L in Cu 12 Sb 4 S 13 by explicitly treating anharmonicity up to quartic terms for both phonon energies and phonon scattering rates. We show that the strongly unstable phonon modes associated with trigonally coordinated Cu atoms are anharmonically stabilized above approximately 100 K and continue hardening with increasing temperature in accord with experimental data. This temperature-induced hardening effect reduces scattering of heat carrying acoustic modes by reducing the available phase space for three-phonon processes, thereby balancing the conventional ∝ T increase in scattering due to phonon population and yielding nearly temperature independent κ L . Furthermore, we find that very strong phonon broadening leads to a qualitative breakdown of the conventional phonon-gas model and modify the dominant heat transport mechanism from the particlelike phonon wave packet propagation to incoherent contributions described by the off-diagonal terms in the heat-flux operator, which are typically prevailing in glasses and disordered crystals. Furthermore, our work paves the way to a deeper understanding of glasslike thermal conductivity in complex crystals with strong anharmonicity.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Integrated Testing Approaches for the NASA Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle

The Ares I crew launch vehicle is being developed by the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to provide crew and cargo access to the International Space Station (ISS) and, together with the Ares V cargo launch vehicle, serves as a critical component of NASA's future human exploration of the Moon. During the preliminary design phase, NASA defined and began implementing plans for integrated ground and flight testing necessary to achieve the first human launch of Ares I. The individual Ares I flight hardware elements - including the first stage five segment booster (FSB), upper stage, and J-2X upper stage engine - will undergo extensive development, qualification, and certification testing prior to flight. Key integrated system tests include the upper stage Main Propulsion Test Article (MPTA), acceptance tests of the integrated upper stage and upper stage engine assembly, a full-scale integrated vehicle ground vibration test (IVGVT), aerodynamic testing to characterize vehicle performance, and integrated testing of the avionics and software components. The Ares I-X development flight test will provide flight data to validate engineering models for aerodynamic performance, stage separation, structural dynamic performance, and control system functionality. The Ares I-Y flight test will validate ascent performance of the first stage, stage separation functionality, validate the ability of the upper stage to manage cryogenic propellants to achieve upper stage engine start conditions, and a high-altitude demonstration of the launch abort system (LAS) following stage separation. The Orion 1 flight test will be conducted as a full, un-crewed, operational flight test through the entire ascent flight profile prior to the first crewed launch.

Taylor, James L.↗

X-ray diffraction strains in laser-ablated aluminum, nickel, sodium, and invar: Pressures to 475 GPa

Dynamically compressed materials in longitudinal waves are described by two physical models: hydrostatic pressure, with equal, normal, principal stresses or material uniaxially strained in the wave propagation direction. These models are disparate, so experimental comparisons and evaluations are important. Polycrystalline material in a state of hydrostatic pressure will have no eccentricity of x-ray-diffracted Debye–Scherrer rings. A general three-dimensional solution of Bragg diffracted x rays based on principal crystallographic strains in the compression wave was found. The distortion of x-ray diffraction beams has been used for strain measurements; the analysis developed incorporates a strained reciprocal lattice and the incident x-ray beam. Strain-distorted Polanyi surfaces form an annulus of compression with an ellipsoid of revolution in reciprocal space, which is intersected by Ewald's sphere for Bragg diffraction. The in situ measurements for strain describe nanosecond diffraction evaluated using two planes, (hkl) and (h′k′l′), both in the same crystallographic phase. Diffraction from Al, Ni, Na, and Invar quantifies the compression axial strains in these materials: The compression axial ratios are 0.65, 1.05, 0.88, and 1.58 at pressures of 291, 402, 409, and 367 GPa for the respective materials. Crystal structure transformations with homogeneous pressurized stresses, mandating equal normal strains, should not be anticipated to agree with heterogeneous, uniaxially strained, and sheared crystalline phases. Measurements support in-plane strains increasing with pressure, p , in fcc and hcp aluminum as ε 22 = −0.21 p /TPa.

Alloys↗

Biasing topological charge injection in topological matter

Here we explore the interplay between topologies in the momentum and real spaces to formulate a thermodynamic description of nonequilibrium injection of topological charges under external bias. We show that the edge modes engendered by the momentum-space topology can play a functional role of connecting the external reservoirs to the bulk transport of topological charges in the real space. We illustrate our general results with two examples: the spin-torque injection of skyrmions in an electrically biased integer quantum Hall system, and the vortex injection in a topological $p + ip$ superconductor coupled to heat reservoirs. Based on the universal fractional entropy of the Majorana zero modes bound to the vortices, their controllable injection proposed in this work could provide a route for creating and manipulating Majorana fermions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Spatially-Resolved HST GRISM Spectroscopy of a Lensed Emission Line Galaxy at Z to approximately 1

We take advantage of gravitational lensing amplification by Abell 1689 (z=0.187) to undertake the first space-based census of emission line galaxies (ELGs) in the field of a massive lensing cluster. Forty-three ELGs are identified to a flux of i(sub 775)=27.3 via slitless grism spectroscopy. One ELG (at z=0.7895) is very bright owing to lensing magnification by a factor of approx = 4.5. Several Balmer emission lines detected from ground-based follow-up spectroscopy signal the onset of a major starburst for this low-mass galaxy (M(sub star) approx = 2 x 10(exp 9)Solar Mass) with a high specific star formation rate (approx = 20/ Gyr). From the blue emission lines we measure a gas-phase oxygen abundance consistent with solar (12+log(O /H)=8.8 +/- O.2). We break the continuous line-emitting region of this giant arc into seven approx 1 kpc bins (intrinsic size) and measure a variety of metallicity dependent line ratios. A weak trend of increasing metal fraction is seen toward the dynamical center of the galaxy. Interestingly, the metal line ratios in a region offset from the center by -lkpc have a placement on the blue HI! region excitation diagram with f([OIII]/ f(H-Beta) and f([NeIII/ f(H-Beta) that can be fit by an AGN. This asymmetrical AGN-like behavior is interpreted as a product of shocks in the direction of the galaxy's extended tail, possibly instigated by a recent galaxy interaction.

Frye, Brenda L.↗

Temperature dependence of magnetic anisotropy and magnetoelasticity from classical spin-lattice calculations

Here we present a classical molecular-spin dynamics (MSD) methodology that enables accurate computations of the temperature dependence of the magnetocrystalline anisotropy as well as magnetoelastic properties of magnetic materials. The nonmagnetic interactions are accounted for by a spectral neighbor analysis potential (SNAP) machine-learned interatomic potential, whereas the magnetoelastic contributions are accounted for using a combination of an extended Heisenberg Hamiltonian and a Néel pair interaction model, representing both the exchange interaction and spin-orbit-coupling effects, respectively. All magnetoelastic potential components are parameterized using a combination of first-principles and experimental data. Our framework is applied to the α phase of iron. Initial testing of our MSD model is done using a 0 K parametrization of the Néel interaction model. After this, we examine how individual Néel parameters impact the $B$ 1 and $B$ 2 magnetostrictive coefficients using a moment-independent δ sensitivity analysis. The results from this study are then used to initialize a genetic algorithm optimization which explores the Néel parameter phase space and tries to minimize the error in the B 1 and B 2 magnetostrictive coefficients in the range of 0–1200 K. Our results show that while both the 0 K and genetic algorithm optimized parametrization provide good experimental agreement for $B$ 1 and $B$ 2 , only the genetic algorithm optimized results can capture the second peak in the $B$ 1 magnetostrictive coefficient which occurs near approximately 800 K.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Spectral anomalies and broken symmetries in maximally chaotic quantum maps

Spectral statistics such as the level spacing statistics and spectral form factor (SFF) are widely expected to accurately identify “ergodicity,” including the presence of underlying macroscopic symmetries, in generic quantum systems ranging from quantized chaotic maps to interacting many-body systems. By studying various quantizations of maximally chaotic maps that break a discrete classical symmetry upon quantization, we demonstrate that this approach can be misleading and fail to detect macroscopic symmetries. Notably, the same classical map can exhibit signatures of different random matrix symmetry classes in short-range spectral statistics depending on the quantization. While the long-range spectral statistics encoded in the early time ramp of the SFF are more robust and correctly identify macroscopic symmetries in several common quantizations, we also demonstrate analytically and numerically that the presence of Berry-like phases in the quantization leads to spectral anomalies, which break this correspondence. Finally, we provide numerical evidence that long-range spectral rigidity remains directly correlated with ergodicity in the quantum dynamical sense of visiting a complete orthonormal basis.

Shou, Laura [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (↗

Probability of Decompression Sickness and Venous Gas Emboli from 49 NASA Hypobaric Chamber Tests with Reference to Exploration Atmosphere

Introduction: Decompression sickness (DCS) is a complex biophysical event; it combines human perception of pain, for instance, and the presence of a gas phase in the tissues. Living tissues are complex and dynamic. Micronuclei and later bubbles may or may not form given what appears to be the same conditions. Even when bubbles grow, symptoms may or may not develop under what appears to be the same conditions. Therefore, at this time it is appropriate to consider DCS as a probabilistic rather than a deterministic event. Methods: Probabilistic models about hypobaric DCS and venous gas emboli (VGE) require a large amount of quality research data, a definition of decompression dose using physical and physiologic variables, and a flexible analytical approach that can quantify the association between each outcome and all covariates of interest (assuming independence between DCS and VGE) and then ultimately be extended to acknowledge dependencies between DCS and VGE. Our DCS and VGE data are from 1,031 hypobaric decompressions from 1983 to 2016. A total of 577 humans participated in 49 hypobaric chamber tests to evaluate denitrogenation procedures used by astronauts in the Space Shuttle and International Space Station programs. We defined decompression dose as the ratio of computed nitrogen tension in a theoretical 360-minute half-time compartment to ambient pressure, which accounts for denitrogenation and exposure pressure as well as explanatory variables such as age, sex, body mass index, and the presence or absence of ambulation as part of exercise at the exposure pressure. A parametric survival model, using a log-logistic distribution, was used to quantify the time to development of DCS, VGE, and Grade IV VGE. Results: Our survival estimates are applicable to simple hypobaric decompressions, such as depressurizations in 5 to 30 minutes to exposure pressures between 4 and 10 pounds per square inch absolute (psia) and after minutes to hours of denitrogenation, either under resting or exercise conditions to accelerated denitrogenation. The regressions are applicable to exposures between 2 to 6 hours and under conditions of ambulation or no ambulation as part of exercise at the test pressure. We estimate that an exposure to 4.3 psia with simulated extravehicular activity (EVA) that includes ambulation after equilibration to the exploration atmosphere at 8.2 psia with a 34% oxygen atmosphere will result in 3.1% DCS (1.8% to 5.2 95% confidence interval), 23.2% VGE (16.7 to 31.2%), and 8.5% Grade IV VGE (4.7 to 14.7%) in equal samples of men and women exposed for 6 hours. Discussion: Probabilistic models for DCS, VGE, and Grade IV VGE can be used to inform those that plan future EVAs. Their applications are useful to quantify the risk of DCS and VGE in astronauts that perform EVAs in low-pressure space suits while in space or while exploring the surfaces of the moon or Mars.

Johnny Conkin↗