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NASA NTRS2009

Computing Bounds on Resource Levels for Flexible Plans

A new algorithm efficiently computes the tightest exact bound on the levels of resources induced by a flexible activity plan (see figure). Tightness of bounds is extremely important for computations involved in planning because tight bounds can save potentially exponential amounts of search (through early backtracking and detection of solutions), relative to looser bounds. The bound computed by the new algorithm, denoted the resource-level envelope, constitutes the measure of maximum and minimum consumption of resources at any time for all fixed-time schedules in the flexible plan. At each time, the envelope guarantees that there are two fixed-time instantiations one that produces the minimum level and one that produces the maximum level. Therefore, the resource-level envelope is the tightest possible resource-level bound for a flexible plan because any tighter bound would exclude the contribution of at least one fixed-time schedule. If the resource- level envelope can be computed efficiently, one could substitute looser bounds that are currently used in the inner cores of constraint-posting scheduling algorithms, with the potential for great improvements in performance. What is needed to reduce the cost of computation is an algorithm, the measure of complexity of which is no greater than a low-degree polynomial in N (where N is the number of activities). The new algorithm satisfies this need. In this algorithm, the computation of resource-level envelopes is based on a novel combination of (1) the theory of shortest paths in the temporal-constraint network for the flexible plan and (2) the theory of maximum flows for a flow network derived from the temporal and resource constraints. The measure of asymptotic complexity of the algorithm is O(N O(maxflow(N)), where O(x) denotes an amount of computing time or a number of arithmetic operations proportional to a number of the order of x and O(maxflow(N)) is the measure of complexity (and thus of cost) of a maximumflow algorithm applied to an auxiliary flow network of 2N nodes. The algorithm is believed to be efficient in practice; experimental analysis shows the practical cost of maxflow to be as low as O(N1.5). The algorithm could be enhanced following at least two approaches. In the first approach, incremental subalgorithms for the computation of the envelope could be developed. By use of temporal scanning of the events in the temporal network, it may be possible to significantly reduce the size of the networks on which it is necessary to run the maximum-flow subalgorithm, thereby significantly reducing the time required for envelope calculation. In the second approach, the practical effectiveness of resource envelopes in the inner loops of search algorithms could be tested for multi-capacity resource scheduling. This testing would include inner-loop backtracking and termination tests and variable and value-ordering heuristics that exploit the properties of resource envelopes more directly.

Muscvettola, Nicola↗
NASA NTRS2010

Concentric Nested Toroidal Inflatable Structures

Assemblies comprising multiple limited- height toroidal inflatable structures nested in a concentric arrangement have been invented to obtain more design flexibility than can be obtained in single taller, wider toroidal inflatable structures (see figure). Originally intended for use as containers for habitats for humans in outer space or on remote planets, these and related prior inflatable structures could also be useful on Earth as lightweight, compactly stowable, portable special-purpose buildings that could be transported to remote locations and there inflated to full size and shape. In the case of a single inflatable toroidal structure, one important source of lack of design flexibility is the fact that an increase in outer diameter (which is sometimes desired) is necessarily accompanied by an increase in height (which is sometimes undesired). Increases in diameter and height can also cause difficulty in utilization of the resulting larger volume, in that it can become necessary to partition the volume by means of walls and floors, and features (e.g., stairs or ladders) must be added to enable vertical movement between floors. Moreover, ascending and descending between floors in a gravitational environment could pose unacceptable difficulty for the inhabitants under some circumstances. Another source of lack of design flexibility in a single toroidal inflatable structure is that for a given inflation pressure, an increase in the outer diameter of the structure necessarily entails an increase in the maximum stress in the structure. Because it is necessary to keep the maximum stress within the load-bearing capability of the structural materials, consistent with other aspects of the design, this may translate to a limit on the outer diameter. In an assembly comprising concentric nested toroidal structures, an increase in outer diameter does not necessarily entail an increase in height or a maximum stress in excess of the load-bearing capability of the structural materials. The minor diameters of the nested toroid can be chosen to partition interior spaces optimally, without necessitating the addition of walls or floors. Inasmuch as the maximum stress in a nested inflatable toroidal structure is a function of its minor diameter and the minor diameter is typically small enough that the load-bearing capability of the structural materials is not exceeded, there is no longer a limit on the outer diameter of the assembly: instead, the assembly can be expanded, without limit, by simply adding concentric inflatable toroidal structures having suitable minor diameters and successively larger major diameters. The minor diameters need not be equal:

Johnson, Christopher J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Developing Empirical Lightning Cessation Forecast Guidance for the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center

This research addresses the 45th Weather Squadron's (45WS) need for improved guidance regarding lightning cessation at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center (KSC). KSC's Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) network was the primary observational tool to investigate both cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning. Five statistical and empirical schemes were created from LDAR, sounding, and radar parameters derived from 116 storms. Four of the five schemes were unsuitable for operational use since lightning advisories would be canceled prematurely, leading to safety risks to personnel. These include a correlation and regression tree analysis, three variants of multiple linear regression, event time trending, and the time delay between the greatest height of the maximum dBZ value to the last flash. These schemes failed to adequately forecast the maximum interval, the greatest time between any two flashes in the storm. The majority of storms had a maximum interval less than 10 min, which biased the schemes toward small values. Success was achieved with the percentile method (PM) by separating the maximum interval into percentiles for the 100 dependent storms.

LDAR (LIGHTNING DETECTION AND RANGING)↗
NASA NTRS2011

Improvements to a Response Surface Thermal Model for Orion Mated to the International Space Station

This study is an extension of previous work to evaluate the applicability of Design of Experiments (DOE)/Response Surface Methodology to on-orbit thermal analysis. The goal was to determine if the methodology could produce a Response Surface Equation (RSE) that predicted the thermal model temperature results within +/-10 F. An RSE is a polynomial expression that can then be used to predict temperatures for a defined range of factor combinations. Based on suggestions received from the previous work, this study used a model with simpler geometry, considered polynomials up to fifth order, and evaluated orbital temperature variations to establish a minimum and maximum temperature for each component. A simplified Outer Mold Line (OML) thermal model of the Orion spacecraft was used in this study. The factors chosen were the vehicle's Yaw, Pitch, and Roll (defining the on-orbit attitude), the Beta angle (restricted to positive beta angles from 0 to 75), and the environmental constants (varying from cold to hot). All factors were normalized from their native ranges to a non-dimensional range from -1.0 to 1.0. Twenty-three components from the OML were chosen and the minimum and maximum orbital temperatures were calculated for each to produce forty-six responses for the DOE model. A customized DOE case matrix of 145 analysis cases was developed which used analysis points at the factor corners, mid-points, and center. From this data set, RSE s were developed which consisted of cubic, quartic, and fifth order polynomials. The results presented are for the fifth order RSE. The RSE results were then evaluated for agreement with the analytical model predictions to produce a +/-3(sigma) error band. Forty of the 46 responses had a +/-3(sigma) value of 10 F or less. Encouraged by this initial success, two additional sets of verification cases were selected. One contained 20 cases, the other 50 cases. These cases were evaluated both with the fifth order RSE and with the analytical model. For the maximum temperature predictions, 12 of the 23 components had all predictions within +/-10 F and 17 were within +/-20 F. For the minimum temperature predictions, only 4 of the 23 components (the four radiator temperatures), were within the 10 F goal. The maximum temperature RSEs were then run through 59,049 screening cases. The RSE predictions were then filtered to find 55 cases that produced the hottest temperatures. These 55 cases were then analyzed using the thermal model and the results compared against the RSE predictions. As noted earlier, 12 of the 23 responses were within +/-10 F at 17 within +/-20 F. These results demonstrate that if properly formulated, an RSE can provide a reliable, fast temperature prediction. Despite this progress, additional work is needed to determine why the minimum temperatures responses and 6 of the hot temperature responses did not produce reliable RSEs. Recommend focus areas are the model itself (arithmetic vs. diffusion nodes) and seeking consultations with statistical application experts.

Miller, StephenW.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Methodology and Results of the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Human Space Flight (HSF) Accessible Targets Study (NHATS)

Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) have been identified by the current administration as potential destinations for human explorers during the mid-2020s. While the close proximity of these objects' orbits to Earth's orbit creates a risk of highly damaging or catastrophic impacts, it also makes some of these objects particularly accessible to spacecraft departing Earth, and this presents unique opportunities for solar system science and humanity's first ventures beyond cislunar space. Planning such ambitious missions first requires the selection of potentially accessible targets from the growing population of nearly 7,800 NEAs. To accomplish this, NASA is conducting the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Human Space Flight (HSF) Accessible Targets Study (NHATS). Phase I of the NHATS was executed during September of 2010, and Phase II was completed by early March of 2011. The study is ongoing because previously undetected NEAs are being discovered constantly, which has motivated an effort to automate the analysis algorithms in order to provide continuous monitoring of NEA accessibility. The NHATS analysis process consists of a trajectory filter and a minimum maximum estimated size criterion. The trajectory filter employs the method of embedded trajectory grids to compute all possible ballistic round-trip mission trajectories to every NEA in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Small-Body Database (SBDB) and stores all solutions that satisfy the trajectory filter criteria. An NEA must offer at least one qualifying trajectory solution to pass the trajectory filter. The Phase II NHATS filter criteria were purposely chosen to be highly inclusive, requiring Earth departure date between January 1st, 2015 and December 31st, 2040, total round-trip flight time <= 450 days, stay time at the NEA >= 8 days, Earth departure C(sub 3) energy <= 60 km(exp 2)/s(exp 2), total mission delta-v <= 12 km/s (including an Earth departure maneuver from a 400 km altitude circular parking orbit), and a maximum atmospheric re-entry speed of 12 km/s. After determining which NEAs offer at least one trajectory solution meeting the criteria, the estimated size constraint is then imposed whereby those NEAs may only be considered NHATS- qualifying NEAs if their maximum estimated size is >= 30 m. This corresponds to an absolute magnitude H <= 26.5 with an assumed albedo p = 0:05. The following is a brief high-level summary of the Phase II study results. Of the 7,665 NEAs in the SBDB as of February 3rd, 2011, 765 NEAs passed the trajectory filter and yielded a total of 79,157,604 trajectory solutions. The trajectory solutions for each NEA are post-processed into Pork Chop Contour (PCC) plots which show total mission delta-v as a function of Earth departure date and total mission duration. Although the PCC plots necessarily compress a very multi-dimensional design space into a two-dimensional plot, they permit rapid assessment of the breadth and quality of an NEA's available Earth departure season and clearly indicate the regions of the trajectory design space which warrant further analysis and optimization. The PCC plot for the NEA with the greatest number of NHATS-qualifying trajectory solutions, 2000 SG-344, is shown. Of the 765 NEAs which passed the Phase II trajectory filter, a total of 590 NEAs also satisfied the further constraint of maximum estimated size >= 30 m. The distributions of osculating heliocentric orbital semi-major axis (a), eccentricity (e), and inclination (i), for those 590 NEAs are shown. Note that the semi-latus rectum used is equal to alpha (1-e(exp 2)). To further our understanding of round-trip trajectory accessibility dynamics, it is instructive to examine the distribution of the NHATS-Qualifying NEAs according to orbit classification. NEAs are grouped into four orbit families: Atiras (aphelion < 0.983 AU), Atens (aphelion > 0.983 AU, alpha < 1.0 AU), Apollos (perihelion < 1.017 AU, alpha > 1.0 AU), and Amors (1.017 < perihelion < 1.3 AU). Of the 765 NEAhich satisfied the NHATS trajectory criteria, none are Atiras, 193 are Atens (31% of known Atens), 456 are Apollos (11% of known Apollos), and 116 are Amors (4% of known Amors). While Apollos comprise 60% of the NEAs which pass the NHATS trajectory filter and Atens comprise only 25%, the percentages according to orbit family are perhaps more relevant. Note that only 11% of known Apollos passed the trajectory filter while 31% of known Atens passed. These simple statistics alone strongly suggest that Aten orbits possess features which tend to enhance their round-trip trajectory accessibility as compared to Apollos or Amors. This is significant because Atens' orbits cause them to spend considerable time in Earth's daytime sky, making them difficult to discover and track using ground-based observing assets. In this paper we will detail the NHATS analysis algorithms, present and analyze all NHATS results to date, and discuss aspects of HSF mission architecture design for future NEA missions.

Barbee, Brent↗
NASA NTRS2004

Current Pulses Momentarily Enhance Thermoelectric Cooling

The rates of cooling afforded by thermoelectric (Peltier) devices can be increased for short times by applying pulses of electric current greater than the currents that yield maximum steady-state cooling. It has been proposed to utilize such momentary enhancements of cooling in applications in which diode lasers and other semiconductor devices are required to operate for times of the order of milliseconds at temperatures too low to be easily obtainable in the steady state. In a typical contemplated application, a semiconductor device would be in contact with the final (coldest) somewhat taller stage of a multistage thermoelectric cooler. Steady current would be applied to the stages to produce steady cooling. Pulsed current would then be applied, enhancing the cooling of the top stage momentarily. The principles of operation are straightforward: In a thermoelectric device, the cooling occurs only at a junction at one end of the thermoelectric legs, at a rate proportional to the applied current. However, Joule heating occurs throughout the device at a rate proportional to the current squared. Hence, in the steady state, the steady temperature difference that the device can sustain increases with current only to the point beyond which the Joule heating dominates. If a pulse of current greater than the optimum current (the current for maximum steady cooling) is applied, then the junction becomes momentarily cooled below its lowest steady temperature until thermal conduction brings the resulting pulse of Joule heat to the junction and thereby heats the junction above its lowest steady temperature. A theoretical and experimental study of such transient thermoelectric cooling followed by transient Joule heating in response to current pulses has been performed. The figure presents results from one of the experiments. The study established the essential parameters that characterize the pulse cooling effect, including the minimum temperature achieved, the maximum temperature overshoot, the time to reach minimum temperature, the time while cooled, and the time between pulses. It was found that at large pulse amplitude, the amount of pulse supercooling is about a fourth of the maximum steady-state temperature difference. For the particular thermoelectric device used in one set of the experiments, the practical optimum pulse amplitude was found to be about 3 times the optimum steady-state current. In a further experiment, a pulse cooler was integrated into a small commercial thermoelectric threestage cooler and found to provide several degrees of additional cooling for a time long enough to operate a semiconductor laser in a gas sensor.

Snyder, G. Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS2004

Coding for Communication Channels with Dead-Time Constraints

Coding schemes have been designed and investigated specifically for optical and electronic data-communication channels in which information is conveyed via pulse-position modulation (PPM) subject to dead-time constraints. These schemes involve the use of error-correcting codes concatenated with codes denoted constrained codes. These codes are decoded using an interactive method. In pulse-position modulation, time is partitioned into frames of Mslots of equal duration. Each frame contains one pulsed slot (all others are non-pulsed). For a given channel, the dead-time constraints are defined as a maximum and a minimum on the allowable time between pulses. For example, if a Q-switched laser is used to transmit the pulses, then the minimum allowable dead time is the time needed to recharge the laser for the next pulse. In the case of bits recorded on a magnetic medium, the minimum allowable time between pulses depends on the recording/playback speed and the minimum distance between pulses needed to prevent interference between adjacent bits during readout. The maximum allowable dead time for a given channel is the maximum time for which it is possible to satisfy the requirement to synchronize slots. In mathematical shorthand, the dead-time constraints for a given channel are represented by the pair of integers (d,k), where d is the minimum allowable number of zeroes between ones and k is the maximum allowable number of zeroes between ones. A system of the type to which the present schemes apply is represented by a binary- input, real-valued-output channel model illustrated in the figure. At the transmitting end, information bits are first encoded by use of an error-correcting code, then further encoded by use of a constrained code. Several constrained codes for channels subject to constraints of (d,infinity) have been investigated theoretically and computationally. The baseline codes chosen for purposes of comparison were simple PPM codes characterized by M-slot PPM frames separated by d-slot dead times.

Moision, Bruce↗
NASA NTRS2012

Aerosol Daytime Variations over North and South America Derived from Multiyear AERONET Measurements

This study analyzes the daytime variation of aerosol with seasonal distinction by using multi-year measurements from 54 of the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites over North America, South America, and islands in surrounding oceans. The analysis shows a wide range of daily variability of aerosol optical depth (AOO) and Angstrom exponent depending on location and season. Possible reasons for daytime variations are given. The largest AOO daytime variation range at 440 nm, up to 75%, occurs in Mexico City, with maximum AOO in the afternoon. Large AOO daily variations are also observed in the polluted mid-Atlantic U.S. and U.S. West Coast with maximum AOO occurring in the afternoon in the mid-Atlantic U.S., but in the morning in the West Coast. In South American sites during the biomass burning season (August to October), maximum AOO generally occurs in the afternoon. But the daytime variation becomes smaller when sites are influenced more by long-range transported smoke than by local burning. Islands show minimum AOO in the morning and maximum AOO in the afternoon. The diverse patterns of aerosol daytime variation suggest that geostationary satellite measurements would be invaluable for characterizing aerosol temporal variations on regional and continental scales. In particular, simultaneous measurements of aerosols and aerosol precursors from a geostationary satellite would greatly aid in understanding the evolution of aerosol as determined by emissions, chemical transformations, and transport processes.

Zhang, Yan↗
NASA NTRS2011

Estimation of Surface Air Temperature Over Central and Eastern Eurasia from MODIS Land Surface Temperature

Surface air temperature (T(sub a)) is a critical variable in the energy and water cycle of the Earth.atmosphere system and is a key input element for hydrology and land surface models. This is a preliminary study to evaluate estimation of T(sub a) from satellite remotely sensed land surface temperature (T(sub s)) by using MODIS-Terra data over two Eurasia regions: northern China and fUSSR. High correlations are observed in both regions between station-measured T(sub a) and MODIS T(sub s). The relationships between the maximum T(sub a) and daytime T(sub s) depend significantly on land cover types, but the minimum T(sub a) and nighttime T(sub s) have little dependence on the land cover types. The largest difference between maximum T(sub a) and daytime T(sub s) appears over the barren and sparsely vegetated area during the summer time. Using a linear regression method, the daily maximum T(sub a) were estimated from 1 km resolution MODIS T(sub s) under clear-sky conditions with coefficients calculated based on land cover types, while the minimum T(sub a) were estimated without considering land cover types. The uncertainty, mean absolute error (MAE), of the estimated maximum T(sub a) varies from 2.4 C over closed shrublands to 3.2 C over grasslands, and the MAE of the estimated minimum Ta is about 3.0 C.

Shen, Suhung↗
NASA NTRS2012

X-Ray Emission from Supernovae in Dense Circumstellar Matter Environments: A Search for Collisionless Shock

The optical light curve of some supernovae (SNe) may be powered by the outward diffusion of the energy deposited by the explosion shock (so-called shock breakout) in optically thick (tau approx > 30) circumstellar matter (CSM). Recently, it was shown that the radiation-mediated and -dominated shock in an optically thick wind must transform into 8. collisionless shock and can produce hard X-rays. The X-rays are expected to peak at late times, relative to maximum visible light. Here we report on a search, using Swift-XRT and Chandra, for X-ray emission from 28 SNe that belong to classes whose progenitors are suspected to be embedded in dense CSM. Our sample includes 19 type-IIn SNe, one type-Ibn SN and ei~ht hydrogen-poor super-luminous SNe (SLSN-I; SN 2005ap like). Two SNe (SN 2006jc and SN 2010jl) have X-ray properties that are roughly consistent with the expectation for X-rays from a collisionless shock in optically thick CSl\l. Therefore, we suggest that their optical light curves are powered by shock breakout in CSM. We show that two other events (SN 2010al and SN 2011ht) were too X-ray bright during the SN maximum optical light to be explained by the shock breakout model. We conclude that the light curves of some, but not all, type-IIn/Ibn SNe are powered by shock breakout in CSM. For the rest of the SNe in our sample, including all the SLSN-I events, our X-ray limits are not deep enough and were typically obtained at too early times (i.e., near the SN maximum light) to conclude about their nature. Late time X-ray observations are required in order to further test if these SNe are indeed embedded in dense CSM. We review the conditions required for a shock breakOut in a wind profile. We argue that the time scale, relative to maximum light, for the SN to peak in X-rays is a probe of the column density and the density profile above the shock region. The optical light curves of SNe, for which the X-ray emission peaks at late times, are likely powered by the diffusion of shock energy from a dense CSM. We note that if the CSM density profile falls faster than a constant-rate wind density profile, then X-rays may escape at earlier times than estimated for the wind profile case. Furthermore, if the CSM have a region in which the density profile is very steep, relative to a steady wind density profile, or the CSM is neutral, then the radio free-free absorption may be low enough, and radio emission may be detected.

Ofek, E.O↗
NASA NTRS2014

Global Investigation of the Mg Atom and ion Layers using SCIAMACHY/Envisat Observations between 70 km and 150 km Altitude and WACCM-MG Model Results

Mg and Mg+ concentration fields in the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere (UMLT) region are retrieved from SCIAMACHY/Envisat limb measurements of Mg and Mg+ dayglow emissions using a 2-D tomographic retrieval approach. The time series of monthly means of Mg and Mg+ for number density as well as vertical column density in different latitudinal regions are shown. Data from the limb mesosphere-thermosphere mode of SCIAMACHY/Envisat are used, which covers the 50 km to 150 km altitude region with a vertical sampling of 3.3 km and a highest latitude of 82 deg. The high latitudes are not covered in the winter months, because there is no dayglow emission during polar night. The measurements were performed every 14 days from mid-2008 until April 2012. Mg profiles show a peak at around 90 km altitude with a density between 750 cm(exp−3) and 2000 cm(exp−3). Mg does not show strong seasonal variation at mid-latitudes. The Mg+ peak occurs 5-15 km above the neutral Mg peak at 95-105 km. Furthermore, the ions show a significant seasonal cycle with a summer maximum in both hemispheres at mid- and high-latitudes. The strongest seasonal variations of the ions are observed at mid-latitudes between 20-40 deg and densities at the peak altitude range from 500 cm(exp−3) to 6000 cm(exp−3). The peak altitude of the ions shows a latitudinal dependence with a maximum at mid-latitudes that is up to 10 km higher than the peak altitude at the equator. The SCIAMACHY measurements are compared to other measurements and WACCM model results. In contrast to the SCIAMACHY results, the WACCM results show a strong seasonal variability for Mg with a winter maximum, which is not observable by SCIAMACHY, and globally higher peak densities. Although the peak densities do not agree the vertical column densities agree, since SCIAMACHY results show a wider vertical profile. The agreement of SCIAMACHY and WACCM results is much better for Mg+, showing the same seasonality and similar peak densities. However, there are the following minor differences: there is no latitudinal dependence of the peak altitude for WACCM and the density maximum, passing the equatorial region during equinox conditions, is not reduced as for SCIAMACHY.

SCIAMACHYEnvisat↗
NASA NTRS2013

Vertical Structure of Ice Cloud Layers From CloudSat and CALIPSO Measurements and Comparison to NICAM Simulations

The shape of the vertical profile of ice cloud layers is examined using 4 months of CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) global measurements taken on January, April, July, and October 2007. Ice clouds are selected using temperature profiles when the cloud base is located above the 253K temperature level. The obtained ice water content (IWC), effective radius, or extinction coefficient profiles are normalized by their layer mean values and are expressed in the normalized vertical coordinate, which is defined as 0 and 1 at the cloud base and top heights, respectively. Both CloudSat and CALIPSO observations show that the maximum in the IWC and extinction profiles shifts toward the cloud bottom, as the cloud depth increases. In addition, clouds with a base reaching the surface in a high-latitude region show that the maximum peak of the IWC and extinction profiles occurs near the surface, which is presumably due to snow precipitation. CloudSat measurements show that the seasonal difference in normalized cloud vertical profiles is not significant, whereas the normalized cloud vertical profile significantly varies depending on the cloud type and the presence of precipitation. It is further examined if the 7 day Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) simulation results from 25 December 2006 to 1 January 2007 generate similar cloud profile shapes. NICAM IWC profiles also show maximum peaks near the cloud bottom for thick cloud layers and maximum peaks at the cloud bottom for low-level clouds near the surface. It is inferred that oversized snow particles in the NICAM cloud scheme produce a more vertically inhomogeneous IWC profile than observations due to quick sedimentation.

Ham, Seung-Hee↗
NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Impact of Laurentide Ice-sheet Topography on Glacial Climate

Simulations of past climates require altered boundary conditions to account for known shifts in the Earth system. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the existence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets caused profound changes in surface topography and albedo. While ice-sheet extent is fairly well known, numerous conflicting reconstructions of ice-sheet topography suggest that precision in this boundary condition is lacking. Here we use a high-resolution and oxygen-isotopeenabled fully coupled global circulation model (GCM) (GISS ModelE2-R), along with two different reconstructions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) that provide maximum and minimum estimates of LIS elevation, to assess the range of climate variability in response to uncertainty in this boundary condition.We present this comparison at two equilibrium time slices: the LGM, when differences in ice-sheet topography are maximized, and 14 ka, when differences in maximum ice-sheet height are smaller but still exist. Overall, we find significant differences in the climate response to LIS topography, with the larger LIS resulting in enhanced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and warmer surface air temperatures, particularly over northeastern Asia and the North Pacific. These up- and downstream effects are associated with differences in the development of planetary waves in the upper atmosphere, with the larger LIS resulting in a weaker trough over northeastern Asia that leads to the warmer temperatures and decreased albedo from snow and sea-ice cover. Differences between the 14 ka simulations are similar in spatial extent but smaller in magnitude, suggesting that climate is responding primarily to the larger difference in maximum LIS elevation in the LGM simulations. These results suggest that such uncertainty in ice-sheet boundary conditions alone may significantly impact the results of paleoclimate simulations and their ability to successfully simulate past climates, with implications for estimating climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing utilizing past climate states.

glaciology↗
NASA NTRS2014

Impact of Land Surface Initialization Approach on Subseasonal Forecast Skill: a Regional Analysis in the Southern Hemisphere

The authors use a sophisticated coupled land-atmosphere modeling system for a Southern Hemisphere subdomain centered over southeastern Australia to evaluate differences in simulation skill from two different land surface initialization approaches. The first approach uses equilibrated land surface states obtained from offline simulations of the land surface model, and the second uses land surface states obtained from reanalyses. The authors find that land surface initialization using prior offline simulations contribute to relative gains in subseasonal forecast skill. In particular, relative gains in forecast skill for temperature of 10%-20% within the first 30 days of the forecast can be attributed to the land surface initialization method using offline states. For precipitation there is no distinct preference for the land surface initialization method, with limited gains in forecast skill irrespective of the lead time. The authors evaluated the asymmetry between maximum and minimum temperatures and found that maximum temperatures had the largest gains in relative forecast skill, exceeding 20% in some regions. These results were statistically significant at the 98% confidence level at up to 60 days into the forecast period. For minimum temperature, using reanalyses to initialize the land surface contributed to relative gains in forecast skill, reaching 40% in parts of the domain that were statistically significant at the 98% confidence level. The contrasting impact of the land surface initialization method between maximum and minimum temperature was associated with different soil moisture coupling mechanisms. Therefore, land surface initialization from prior offline simulations does improve predictability for temperature, particularly maximum temperature, but with less obvious improvements for precipitation and minimum temperature over southeastern Australia.

Precipitation↗
NASA NTRS2014

MODIS NDVI Change Detection Techniques and Products Used in the Near Real Time ForWarn System for Detecting, Monitoring, and Analyzing Regional Forest Disturbances

This presentation discusses MODIS NDVI change detection methods and products used in the ForWarn Early Warning System (EWS) for near real time (NRT) recognition and tracking of regionally evident forest disturbances throughout the conterminous US (CONUS). The latter has provided NRT forest change products to the forest health protection community since 2010, using temporally processed MODIS Aqua and Terra NDVI time series data to currently compute and post 6 different forest change products for CONUS every 8 days. Multiple change products are required to improve detectability and to more fully assess the nature of apparent disturbances. Each type of forest change product reports per pixel percent change in NDVI for a given 24 day interval, comparing current versus a given historical baseline NDVI. EMODIS 7 day expedited MODIS MOD13 data are used to obtain current and historical NDVIs, respectively. Historical NDVI data is processed with Time Series Product Tool (TSPT); and 2) the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool (PPET) software. While each change products employ maximum value compositing (MVC) of NDVI, the design of specific products primarily differs in terms of the historical baseline. The three main change products use either 1, 3, or all previous years of MVC NDVI as a baseline. Another product uses an Adaptive Length Compositing (ALC) version of MVC to derive an alternative current NDVI that is the freshest quality NDVI as opposed to merely the MVC NDVI across a 24 day time frame. The ALC approach can improve detection speed by 8 to 16 days. ForWarn also includes 2 change products that improve detectability of forest disturbances in lieu of climatic fluctuations, especially in the spring and fall. One compares current MVC NDVI to the zonal maximum under the curve NDVI per pheno-region cluster class, considering all previous years in the MODIS record. The other compares current maximum NDVI to the mean of maximum NDVI for all previous MODIS years.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗
NASA NTRS2013

X-ray Emission from Supernovae in Dense Circumstellar Matter Environments: a Search for Collisionless Shocks

The optical light curve of some supernovae (SNe) may be powered by the outward diffusion of the energy deposited by the explosion shock (the so-called shock breakout) in optically thick (Tau approx > 30) circumstellar matter (CSM). Recently, it was shown that the radiation-mediated and radiation-dominated shock in an optically thick wind must transform into a collisionless shock and can produce hard X-rays. The X-rays are expected to peak at late times, relative to maximum visible light. Here we report on a search, using Swift/XRT and Chandra, for X-ray emission from 28 SNe that belong to classes whose progenitors are suspected to be embedded in dense CSM. Our sample includes 19 Type IIn SNe, one Type Ibn SN, and eight hydrogen-poor superluminous SNe (SLSN-I such as SN 2005ap). Two SNe (SN 2006jc and SN 2010jl) have X-ray properties that are roughly consistent with the expectation for X-rays from a collisionless shock in optically thick CSM. However, the X-ray emission from SN 2006jc can also be explained as originating in an optically thin region. Thus, we propose that the optical light curve of SN 2010jl is powered by shock breakout in CSM. We suggest that two other events (SN 2010al and SN 2011ht) were too X-ray bright during the SN maximum optical light to be explained by the shock-breakout model.We conclude that the light curves of some, but not all, SNe IIn/Ibn are powered by shock breakout in CSM. For the rest of the SNe in our sample, including all of the SLSN-I events, our X-ray limits are not deep enough and were typically obtained too early (i.e., near the SN maximum light) for definitive conclusions about their nature. Late-time X-ray observations are required in order to further test whether these SNe are indeed embedded in dense CSM. We review the conditions required for a shock breakout in a wind profile. We argue that the timescale, relative to maximum light, for the SN to peak in X-rays is a probe of the column density and the density profile above the shock region. In SNe whose X-ray emission slowly rises, and peaks at late times, the optical light curve is likely powered by the diffusion of shock energy in a dense CSM. We note that if the CSM density profile falls faster than a constant-rate wind-density profile, then X-rays may escape at earlier times than estimated for the wind-profile case. Furthermore, if the CSM has a region in which the density profile is very steep relative to a steady wind-density profile, or if the CSM is neutral, then the radio free-free absorption may be sufficiently low for radio emission to be detected.

matter↗
NASA NTRS2011

Snow Cover, Snowmelt Timing and Stream Power in the Wind River Range, Wyoming

Earlier onset of springtime weather, including earlier snowmelt, has been documented in the western United States over at least the last 50 years. Because the majority (is greater than 70%) of the water supply in the western U.S. comes from snowmelt, analysis of the declining spring snowpack (and shrinking glaciers) has important implications for the management of streamflow. The amount of water in a snowpack influences stream discharge which can also influence erosion and sediment transport by changing stream power, or the rate at which a stream can do work, such as move sediment and erode the stream bed. The focus of this work is the Wind River Range (WRR) in west-central Wyoming. Ten years of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-cover, cloud-gap-filled (CGF) map products and 30 years of discharge and meteorological station data are studied. Streamflow data from streams in WRR drainage basins show lower annual discharge and earlier snowmelt in the decade of the 2000s than in the previous three decades, though no trend of either lower streamflow or earlier snowmelt was observed within the decade of the 2000s. Results show a statistically-significant trend at the 95% confidence level (or higher) of increasing weekly maximum air temperature (for three out of the five meteorological stations studied) in the decade of the 1970s, and also for the 40-year study period as a whole. The extent of snow-cover (percent of basin covered) derived from the lowest elevation zone (2500-3000 m) of the WRR, using MODIS CGF snow-cover maps, is strongly correlated with maximum monthly discharge on 30 April, where Spearman's Rank correlation, rs,=0.89 for the decade of the 2000s. We also investigated stream power for Bull Lake Creek above Bull Lake; and found a trend (significant at the 90% confidence level) toward reduced stream power from 1970 to 2009. Observed changes in streamflow and stream power may be related to increasing weekly maximum air temperature measured during the 40-year study period, possibly contributing to a reduction in snow cover. In addition, the strong relationship between percent of basin that was snow covered, and maximum monthly streamflow indicates that MODIS snow-cover maps are useful for predicting streamflow, and can be used to improve management of water resources in the drought-prone western United States.

MODIS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Lighting Condition Analysis for Mars Moon Phobos

A manned mission to Phobos may be an important precursor and catalyst for the human exploration of Mars, as it will fully demonstrate the technologies for a successful Mars mission. A comprehensive understanding of Phobos' environment such as lighting condition and gravitational acceleration are essential to the mission success. The lighting condition is one of many critical factors for landing zone selection, vehicle power subsystem design, and surface mobility vehicle path planning. Due to the orbital characteristic of Phobos, the lighting condition will change dramatically from one Martian season to another. This study uses high fidelity computer simulation to investigate the lighting conditions, specifically the solar radiation flux over the surface, on Phobos. Ephemeris data from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) DE405 model was used to model the state of the Sun, the Earth, and Mars. An occultation model was developed to simulate Phobos' self-shadowing and its solar eclipses by Mars. The propagated Phobos' state was compared with data from JPL's Horizon system to ensure the accuracy of the result. Results for Phobos lighting condition over one Martian year are presented in this paper, which include length of solar eclipse, average solar radiation intensity, surface exposure time, total maximum solar energy, and total surface solar energy (constrained by incident angle). The results show that Phobos' solar eclipse time changes throughout the Martian year with the maximum eclipse time occurring during the Martian spring and fall equinox and no solar eclipse during the Martian summer and winter solstice. Solar radiation intensity is close to minimum at the summer solstice and close to maximum at the winter solstice. Total surface exposure time is longer near the north pole and around the anti- Mars point. Total maximum solar energy is larger around the anti-Mars point. Total surface solar energy is higher around the anti-Mars point near the equator. The results from this study and others like it will be important in determining landing site selection, vehicle system design and mission operations for the human exploration of Phobos and subsequently Mars.

Li, Zu Qun↗