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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Privacy-preserving federated learning: Application to behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic generation forecasting

Here, the growing usage of decentralized renewable energy sources has made accurate estimation of their aggregated generation crucial for maintaining grid flexibility and reliability. However, the majority of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems are behind-the-meter (BTM) and invisible to utilities, leading to three challenges in obtaining an accurate forecast of their aggregated output. Firstly, traditional centralized prediction algorithms used in previous studies may not be appropriate due to privacy concerns. There is therefore a need for decentralized forecasting methods, such as federated learning (FL), to protect privacy. Secondly, there has been no comparison between localized, centralized, and decentralized forecasting methods for BTM PV production, and the trade-off between prediction accuracy and privacy has not been explored. Lastly, the computational time of data-driven prediction algorithms has not been examined. This article presents a FL power forecasting method for PVs, which uses federated learning as a decentralized collaborative modeling approach to train a single model on data from multiple BTM sites. The machine learning network used to design this FL-based BTM PV forecasting model is a multi-layered perceptron, which ensures privacy and security of the data. Comparing the suggested FL forecasting model to non-private centralized and entirely private localized models revealed that it has a high level of accuracy, with an RMSE that is 18.17% lower than localized models and 9.9% higher than centralized models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stanford Thermal Earth Model for the Conterminous United States

Provided here are various forms of the Stanford Thermal Earth Model, as well as the data and methods used for its creation. The predictions produced by this model were visualized in two-dimensional spatial maps across the modeled depths (0-7 km) for the conterminous United States. The thermal earth model is made available as an application programming interface (API) and as feature layers on ArcGIS, which are both provided via links below. A data-driven spatial interpolation algorithm based on physics-informed graph neural networks was used to develop these national temperature-at-depth maps. The model satisfied the three-dimensional heat conduction law by predicting subsurface temperature, surface heat flow, and rock thermal conductivity. Many physical quantities, including bottomhole temperature, depth, geographic coordinates, elevation, sediment thickness, magnetic anomaly, gravity anomaly, gamma-ray flux of radioactive elements, seismicity, and electric conductivity were used as model inputs. Surface heat flow, temperature, and thermal conductivity predictions were constructed for depths of 0-7 km at an interval of 1 km with spatial resolution of 18 km2 per grid cell. The model showed superior temperature, surface heat flow and thermal conductivity mean absolute errors of 4.8C, 8.1 mW/m2 and 0.07 W/(C-m), respectively..

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Basic Research Needs for Inverse Methods for Complex Systems under Uncertainty

Inverse problems, which aim to infer unknown properties of a system using experimental and observational data, are central to addressing many of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) most critical scientific and engineering challenges. Accurate, computationally efficient, and data-efficient solutions to inverse problems are essential for advancing DOE mission-critical science drivers, including analyzing data from large-scale experimental facilities, optimizing fusion reactor performance, accelerating materials discovery, enhancing geophysical imaging, improving wildfire predictions, and enabling autonomous systems and digital twins. However, these problems are becoming increasingly complex, often involving nonlinear, highdimensional, and interconnected systems and models that span multiple physics and scales, while relying on data with varying quantity, quality, and information content. Compounding these challenges is the uncertainty inherent in DOE-relevant systems, where errors in inputs, noise in data, incompleteness of data, and discrepancies between models and reality constrain the accuracy and precision of solutions. At the same time, the convergence of recent scientific computing trends—scientific machine learning, artificial intelligence, and computing advances such as exascale computing—is creating unprecedented opportunities for tackling these challenges. The cross-cutting nature of inverse problems, combined with their growing complexity and rapidly evolving data and algorithmic demands, strongly motivates the formulation of a prioritized research agenda to maximize their capabilities and impact. In response to this need, DOE’s Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program in the Office of Science convened the Workshop on Basic Research Needs for Inverse Problems for Complex Systems Under Uncertainty in June 2025. This workshop brought together experts across disciplines to identify grand challenges and major opportunities in the field. Through collaborative discussions, the workshop defined transformative research directions aimed at addressing the mathematical, statistical, and computational challenges posed by inverse problems under uncertainty. As a result of these efforts, four priority research directions (PRDs) were identified to guide future research and development in this area. These PRDs, summarized below, represent a roadmap for advancing the foundational science and mathematics of inverse problems, enabling robust, scalable, and uncertainty-aware solutions that are critical for DOE applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sign-OPT: A Query-Efficient Hard-label Adversarial Attack

We study the most practical problem setup for evaluating adversarial robustness of a machine learning system with limited access: the hard-label black-box attack setting for generating adversarial examples, where limited model queries are allowed and only the decision is provided to a queried data input. Several algorithms have been proposed for this problem but they typically require huge amount (>20,000) of queries for attacking one example. Among them, one of the state-of-the-art approaches (Cheng et al., 2019) showed that hard-label attack can be modeled as an optimization problem where the objective function can be evaluated by binary search with additional model queries, thereby a zeroth order optimization algorithm can be applied. In this paper, we adopt the same optimization formulation but propose to directly estimate the sign of gradient at any direction instead of the gradient itself, which enjoys the benefit of single query. Using this single query oracle for retrieving sign of directional derivative, we develop a novel query-efficient Sign-OPT approach for hard-label black-box attack. We provide a convergence analysis of the new algorithm and conduct experiments on several models on MNIST, CIFAR-10 and ImageNet. We find that Sign-OPT attack consistently requires 5X to 10X fewer queries when compared to the current state-of-the-art approaches, and usually converges to an adversarial example with smaller perturbation.

Cheng, Minhao↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using artificial intelligence to detect human errors in nuclear power plants: A case in operation and maintenance

Human error (HE) is an important concern in safety-critical systems such as nuclear power plants (NPPs). HE has played a role in many accidents and outage incidents in NPPs. Despite the increased automation in NPPs, HE remains unavoidable. Hence, the need for HE detection is as important as HE prevention efforts. In NPPs, HE is rather rare. Hence, anomaly detection, a widely used machine learning technique for detecting rare anomalous instances, can be repurposed to detect potential HE. In this study, we develop an unsupervised anomaly detection technique based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) to detect anomalies in manually collected surveillance data in NPPs. More specifically, our GAN is trained to detect mismatches between automatically recorded sensor data and manually collected surveillance data, and hence, identify anomalous instances that can be attributed to HE. We test our GAN on both a real-world dataset and an external dataset obtained from a testbed, and we benchmark our results against state-of-the-art unsupervised anomaly detection algorithms, including one-class support vector machine and isolation forest. Our results show that the proposed GAN provides improved anomaly detection performance. Our study is promising for the future development of artificial intelligence based HE detection systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis and Benchmarking of feature reduction for classification under computational constraints

Abstract Machine learning is most often expensive in terms of computational and memory costs due to training with large volumes of data. Current computational limitations of many computing systems motivate us to investigate practical approaches, such as feature selection and reduction, to reduce the time and memory costs while not sacrificing the accuracy of classification algorithms. In this work, we carefully review, analyze, and identify the feature reduction methods that have low costs/overheads in terms of time and memory. Then, we evaluate the identified reduction methods in terms of their impact on the accuracy, precision, time, and memory costs of traditional classification algorithms. Specifically, we focus on the least resource intensive feature reduction methods that are available in Scikit-Learn library. Since our goal is to identify the best performing low-cost reduction methods, we do not consider complex expensive reduction algorithms in this study. In our evaluation, we find that at quadratic-scale feature reduction, the classification algorithms achieve the best trade-off among competitive performance metrics. Results show that the overall training times are reduced 61%, the model sizes are reduced 6×, and accuracy scores increase 25% compared to the baselines on average with quadratic scale reduction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Python Library for Monte Carlo Simulations with Ab Initio and Machine-Learned Interatomic Potentials

There is a growing need in the simulation community for software that provides a transparent, reproducible, usable, and extensible (TRUE) Monte Carlo (MC) simulation framework employing energies from ab initio methods and machine-learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs). We introduce a Python library (ASE-MC) that adds Monte Carlo functionality to the Atomic Simulation Environment (ASE) package. Now, we can combine the powerful tools used to build systems and perform ab initio and MLIP in ASE with MC simulation algorithms to sample the configurational space with a concise Python script. After presenting the design philosophy, we demonstrate the flexibility of our approach using selected examples. These example simulations include liquid water described with a message-passing MLIP in the canonical and isothermal–isobaric ensembles, sampling the characteristic dihedral angle of biphenyl and comparing an MLIP to first-principles calculations, and a grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation of ammonia adsorption on Pt(111). These examples showcase the main features of the software, which include flexibility in the choice of ab initio or MLIP engine, ab initio or MLIP grand canonical MC with cavity bias insertions and deletions, the ability to add custom MC moves to the move set, and how users can condense complex MC workflows into a single Python script. Finally, this library serves as a framework for reproducible Monte Carlo simulations, facilitating easy reproduction of the work and application to new systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A multiscale design method using interpretable machine learning for phononic materials with closely interacting scales

Manipulating the dispersive characteristics of vibrational waves is beneficial for many applications, e.g., high-precision instruments. architected hierarchical phononic materials have sparked promise tunability of elastodynamic waves and vibrations over multiple frequency ranges. In this article, hierarchical unit-cells are obtained, where features at each length scale result in a band gap within a targeted frequency range. Our novel approach, the ‘‘hierarchical unit-cell template method,’’ is an interpretable machine-learning approach that uncovers global unit-cell shape/topology patterns corresponding to predefined band-gap objectives. A scale-separation effect is observed where the coarse-scale band-gap objective is mostly unaffected by the fine-scale features despite the closeness of their length scales, thus enabling an efficient hierarchical algorithm. Moreover, the hierarchical patterns revealed are not predefined or self-similar hierarchies as common in current hierarchical phononic materials. Furthermore, our approach offers a flexible and efficient method for the exploration of new regions in the hierarchical design space, extracting minimal effective patterns for inverse design in applications targeting multiple frequency ranges.

Architected materials↗
DOE OSTI2022

Insights into Cation Ordering of Double Perovskite Oxides from Machine Learning and Causal Relations

This work investigates origins of cation ordering in double perovskites using first-principles theory computations combined with machine learning (ML) and causal relations. We have considered various oxidation states of A, A', B, and B' from the family of transition metal ions to construct a diverse compositional space. A conventional framework employing traditional ML classification algorithms such as Random Forest (RF) coupled with appropriate features including geometry-driven and key structural modes leads to accurate prediction (~98%) of A-site cation ordering. We have evaluated the accuracy of ML models by employing analyses of decision paths, assignments of probabilistic confidence bound, and finally a direct non-Gaussian acyclic structural equation model to investigate causality. Our study suggests that structural modes are crucial for classifying layered, columnar, and rock-salt ordering. The charge difference between A and A' is the most important feature for predicting clear layered ordering, which in turn depends on the B and B' charge separation. We have also designed mathematical relationships with these features to derive energy differences to form clear layered ordering. Here, the trilinear coupling between tilt, in-phase rotation, and A-site antiferroelectric displacement in the Landau free-energy expansion becomes the necessary condition behind formation of A-site cation ordering.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

A semblance measure for model comparison

Algorithmic and computational advances have made it possible that geophysical survey and earth model design can be aided by many systematic trial inverse-modelling runs with synthetic data. Such may, for example, come up in machine-learning approaches. Automated image appraisal pertaining to such applications will involve common statistical tests for goodness-of-data fit as a primary evaluation method. However, solution non-uniqueness may render multiple images equivalent in terms of their data fit, requiring secondary categorizers. A logical choice for classifying synthetic-imaging results quantifies the goodness of model fit where a known reference model replaces the observational input. The task of model intercomparison in terms of measuring the resemblance to the reference model poses challenges to common distance-based metrics like root mean square error and mean absolute error. First, distance-based metrics can introduce spurious contributions when smooth models with fuzzy target contours are to be compared against a sharp reference. Second, large differences due to parameter-estimation overshoots can dominate distance metrics. Here, we propose a remedy that is referred to as semblance and is based on the idea of logistic functions, where a binary-dependent variable adds non-zero or zero accumulation terms for the, respectively, passing or failing of preset target thresholds. This classifying approach is amenable to an objective where model feature recognition is primary. Numerical comparisons to distance-based metrics provide evidence for the advantages of the semblance in view of this objective. Geophysical imaging in conjunction with machine-learning is seen as a benefitting upcoming application area.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Impact of Specificity on Human Interpretations of State Uncertainty

The goal of this project was test how different representations of state uncertainty impact human decision making. Across a series of experiments, we sought to answer fundamental questions about human cognitive biases and how they are impacted by visual and numerical information. The results of these experiments identify problems and pitfalls to avoid when for presenting algorithmic outputs that include state uncertainty to human decision makers. Our findings also point to important areas for future research that will enable system designers to minimize biases in human interpretation for the outputs of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and other advanced analytic systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trust-Based Detection and Mitigation of Cyber Attacks in Distributed Cooperative Control of Islanded AC Microgrids

In this study, we address the challenge of detecting and mitigating cyber attacks in the distributed cooperative control of islanded AC microgrids, with a particular focus on detecting False Data Injection Attacks (FDIAs), a significant threat to the Smart Grid (SG). The SG integrates traditional power systems with communication networks, creating a complex system with numerous vulnerable links, making it a prime target for cyber attacks. These attacks can lead to the disclosure of private data, control network failures, and even blackouts. Unlike machine learning-based approaches that require extensive datasets and mathematical models dependent on accurate system modeling, our method is free from such dependencies. To enhance the microgrid’s resilience against these threats, we propose a resilient control algorithm by introducing a novel trustworthiness parameter into the traditional cooperative control algorithm. Our method evaluates the trustworthiness of distributed energy resources (DERs) based on their voltage measurements and exchanged information, using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to dynamically adjust control actions. We validated our approach through simulations on both the IEEE-34 bus feeder system with eight DERs and a larger microgrid with twenty-two DERs. The results demonstrated a detection accuracy of around 100%, with millisecond range mitigation time, ensuring rapid system recovery. Additionally, our method improved system stability by up to almost 100% under attack scenarios, showcasing its effectiveness in promptly detecting attacks and maintaining system resilience. These findings highlight the potential of our approach to enhance the security and stability of microgrid systems in the face of cyber threats.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2024

LandScan Global 2023: Silver Edition

For a quarter of a century, the LandScan Global (LSG) project has annually released a global, high-resolution gridded population dataset representing the ambient or unwarned population at a 30 arcsecond resolution. LSG supports a range of applications such as emergency management, disaster response, and human health and security for understanding populations at risk. The 2023 release of LSG, the LandScan Silver Edition, represents a major methodological leap forward while also leveraging previous knowledge—the previous year was the baseline for the current annual update carrying forward valuable knowledge of the built environment for the past quarter century—to train the machine learning models. Compared with annual releases over the past 24years, multiple advancements were made to different aspects of the methodology to achieve reproducibility, transparency, and consistent global propagation of solutions to modeling or population distribution issues identified during the review process. These novel changes include incorporation of the latest available geospatial inputs across the globe, machine learning models instead of manual modifications, population feature importance analysis, open-source solutions vs. proprietary software, generation of multiple global versions, analytic validations, and human-in-the-loop revisions to produce the final version. Additionally, algorithms—such as anomaly detection—were introduced to quickly identify areas of focus to develop a new and robust systematic review. Significant changes in modeled population distributions were observed between the 2022 and 2023 releases, largely attributable to improvements in data and methods and discussed thoroughly within this report. In summation, the LandScan Silver Edition leverages the best of the past quarter century of LSG legacy knowledge and continues a tradition of applying cutting-edge enhancements to serve as a new benchmark for accurate, actionable gridded population data

Lebakula, Viswadeep↗
DOE OSTI2023

Clustering Acoustic Background Noise in the Stratosphere Using Machine Learning

Infrasound, characterized by low-frequency sound inaudible to humans (<20 Hz), emanates from natural and anthropogenic sources. Its efficacy for monitoring phenomena necessitates robust sensing networks. Traditional ground-based infrasound sensors have limitations due to atmospheric dynamics and noise interference. Balloon-bore sensors have emerged as an alternative, offering reduced noise and improved capabilities. This study bridges clustering algorithms with balloon borne infrasound data, a domain yet to be explored. Employing K-Means, DBSCAN, and GMM algorithms on normalized and reshaped data and only normalized data from a New Zealand-based NASA balloon flight, insights into background noise at stratospheric altitudes were revealed. Despite challenges arising from distinguishing signals amid unique background noise, this research provides vital reference material for noise analysis and calibration. Beyond infrasound event capture, the dataset enriches comprehension of background noise characteristics in the southern hemisphere.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scalable 3D reconstruction for X-ray single particle imaging with online machine learning

X-ray free-electron lasers offer unique capabilities for measuring the structure and dynamics of biomolecules, helping us understand the basic building blocks of life. Notably, high-repetition-rate free-electron lasers enable single particle imaging, where individual, weakly scattering biomolecules are imaged under near-physiological conditions with the opportunity to access fleeting states that cannot be captured in cryogenic or crystallized conditions. Existing X-ray single particle reconstruction algorithms, which estimate the particle orientation for each image independently, are slow and memory-intensive when handling the massive datasets generated by emerging free-electron lasers. Here, we introduce X-RAI (X-Ray single particle imaging with Amortized Inference), an online reconstruction framework that estimates the structure of 3D macromolecules from large X-ray single particle datasets. X-RAI consists of a convolutional encoder, which amortizes pose estimation over large datasets, as well as a physics-based decoder, which employs an implicit neural representation to enable high-quality 3D reconstruction in an end-to-end, self-supervised manner. We demonstrate that X-RAI achieves state-of-the-art performance for small-scale datasets in simulation and challenging experimental settings and demonstrate its unprecedented ability to process large datasets containing millions of diffraction images in an online fashion. These abilities signify a paradigm shift in X-ray single particle imaging towards real-time reconstruction.

Computer science↗
DOE OSTI2023

Denoising diffusion models with geometry adaptation for high fidelity calorimeter simulation

Simulation is crucial for all aspects of collider data analysis, but the available computing budget in the High Luminosity LHC era will be severely constrained. Generative machine learning models may act as surrogates to replace physics-based full simulation of particle detectors, and diffusion models have recently emerged as the state of the art for other generative tasks. Here, we introduce CaloDiffusion, a denoising diffusion model trained on the public CaloChallenge datasets to generate calorimeter showers. Our algorithm employs 3D cylindrical convolutions, which take advantage of symmetries of the underlying data representation. To handle irregular detector geometries, we augment the diffusion model with a new geometry latent mapping (GLaM) layer to learn forward and reverse transformations to a regular geometry that is suitable for cylindrical convolutions. The showers generated by our approach are nearly indistinguishable from the full simulation, as measured by several different metrics.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Guided Synthesis of Flash Graphene

Advances in nanoscience have enabled the synthesis of nanomaterials, such as graphene, from low-value or waste materials through flash Joule heating. Though this capability is promising, the complex and entangled variables that govern nanocrystal formation in the Joule heating process remain poorly understood. In this work, machine learning (ML) models are constructed to explore the factors that drive the transformation of amorphous carbon into graphene nanocrystals during flash Joule heating. An XGBoost regression model of crystallinity achieves an r 2 score of 0.8051 ± 0.054. Feature importance assays and decision trees extracted from these models reveal key considerations in the selection of starting materials and the role of stochastic current fluctuations in flash Joule heating synthesis. Furthermore, partial dependence analyses demonstrate the importance of charge and current density as predictors of crystallinity, implying a progression from reaction-limited to diffusion-limited kinetics as flash Joule heating parameters change. Finally, a practical application of the ML models is shown by using Bayesian meta-learning algorithms to automatically improve bulk crystallinity over many Joule heating reactions. Furthermore, these results illustrate the power of ML as a tool to analyze complex nanomanufacturing processes and enable the synthesis of 2D crystals with desirable properties by flash Joule heating.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning and shallow groundwater chemistry to identify geothermal prospects in the Great Basin, USA

This study discovers various geothermal prospects in the Great Basin, USA based on shallow groundwater chemical (geochemical) data. The geochemical data are expected to include hidden (latent) information that is a proxy for geothermal prospectivity. We processed the sparse geochemical data in the Great Basin at 14,341 locations including 18 attributes. Next, a non-negative matrix factorization with customized k-means clustering is applied to the geochemical data matrix that automatically finds three hidden geothermal signatures representing modestly, moderately, and highly confident geothermal prospects. The algorithm also evaluated the probability of occurrence of these types of resources through the studied region. There is a consistency between regional geothermal prospectivity as estimated by our ML methodology and the traditional play fairway analysis conducted over a portion of the study area. We also identify the dominant data attributes associated with each signature. Finally, our ML analyses allow us to reconstruct attributes from sparse into continuous over the study domain. The predicted continuous attributes can be used for future detailed geothermal explorations in the Great Basin.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗