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At least 1,567 records · Page 87

A new technique to retrieve aerosol vertical profiles using micropulse lidar and ground-based aerosol measurements

Accurately characterizing the vertical distribution of aerosols and their cloud-forming properties is crucial for understanding aerosol-cloud interactions and their impact on climate. This study presents a novel technique for retrieving vertical profiles of aerosols, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleating particles (INP) by combining micropulse lidar, radiosonde, and ground-based aerosol measurements. Herein, the technique is applied to data collected by our team at Texas A&M University during the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) campaign. Ground-based aerosol size distribution and CCN counter data are used to estimate the value of the aerosol hygroscopicity parameter, κ. The derived κ, together with Mie scattering theory and the relative humidity profile from the radiosonde, is used to estimate aerosol size growth and the associated increase in backscatter at each altitude. We then correct the lidar backscatter to dry conditions to produce the dry aerosol backscatter coefficient profile. The dry aerosol backscatter coefficient profile is linearly scaled to collocated surface measurements of aerosols, CCN, and INP to produce corresponding vertical profiles. Combining lidar backscatter profiles with aerosol and cloud nucleation measurements leads to a more realistic representation of vertical distributions of aerosol properties. The method could be readily applied to lidar measurements in future field campaigns.

Chen, Bo [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (↗

Quasi-brittle porous material: Simulated effect of stochastic air void structure on compressive strength

Highlights: • A simulation procedure to study the effect of porosity on the compressive strength of a quasi-brittle material is introduced • Based on the simulated results, the relationship between compressive strength and air void fraction (porosity) is presented. • A linear relationship was achieved between the cubic root of porosity and the simulated compressive strength. The effect of porosity comprised of spherical air voids on the compressive strength of quasi-brittle material was studied via simulations. The simulated porous structures were based on pore size distributions of two mortar samples measured by X-ray microtomography. While the simulation method set practical limits on the size of sample, the base of the statistics was established by simulating 128 small structures generated by sampling from pore structures of two mortars. By studying the application of the classical strength-porosity formulas to the simulated data, a new simple model was formed. A linear relationship was achieved between the cubic root of air void fraction (porosity) and the simulated compressive strength. The reasons for scattering of simulated strength around fitted trend remained unresolved in this study; no clear dependence on pore number or other distribution properties was observed. With the presented simulation approach, the dependence of compressive strength on porosity is achieved independently of disturbances that occur in experimental studies creating understanding of compressional behavior of low porosity materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Infrared Low-Temperature Turbine Vane Rough Surface Heat Transfer Measurements

Turbine vane heat transfer distributions obtained using an infrared camera technique are described. Infrared thermography was used because noncontact surface temperature measurements were desired. Surface temperatures were 80 C or less. Tests were conducted in a three-vane linear cascade, with inlet pressures between 0.14 and 1.02 atm, and exit Mach numbers of 0.3, 0.7, and 0.9, for turbulence intensities of approximately 1 and 10 percent. Measurements were taken on the vane suction side, and on the pressure side leading edge region. The designs for both the vane and test facility are discussed. The approach used to account for conduction within the vane is described. Midspan heat transfer distributions are given for the range of test conditions.

Boyle, R. J.↗

Piecewise Linear Optimization for Public EV Charging Depots in Different Utility Environments

With the proliferation of electric vehicles (EVs), EV supply equipment technology is being pushed to increasingly higher power levels, such as extreme fast charging (XFC) at 300kW or more. As more public XFC depots are connected to electric distribution systems, utility operators will mitigate their impact with pricing schemes and programs such as demand response, demand charges, and time-varying prices. In this paper we describe an XFC management system that combines an on-site battery energy storage system and an optimization application that minimizes the cost to operate the depot in light of the utility pricing programs. We have designed the optimizer specially to use fast and simple linear programming so that it can be deployed to low-cost computing platforms. We also describe how several utility pricing schemes are integrated into a single piecewise model, reducing the engineering effort to implement the optimizer in different utility environments.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The effects of correlation on goodness of fit

Autocorrelated normal random variates were generated via computer and the effects of various levels of correlation on goodness of fit problems were studied. The results are useful in determining the distribution or estimating the parameters of populations that correlate observations such as wind speeds and temperature. The model used to generate the autocorrelated data is an autoregressive process of order 1. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov and chi-square statistics are used in the analysis. It was observed in the simulation that high positive correlations tend to shift the sample mean away from the population mean and negative correlations tend to shift the sample mean towards the population mean. In many cases, it was observed that positive and negative correlations tend to decrease the standard deviation. However, since this did not occur in all cases, no definite conclusion can be made regarding the standard deviation. Since the autoregressive process is a linear transformation, it is not surprising that normality was preserved. However, a possible extension of this problem could be to generate non-normal data and observe how the distribution is affected by correlation. Another extension might utilize another model such as autoregressive of order k or a moving average process of order k.

Kitchens, L. J.↗

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High-Resolution PM2.5 Concentrations Estimation Based on Stacked Ensemble Learning Model Using Multi-Source Satellite TOA Data

Nepal has experienced severe fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in recent years. However, few studies have focused on the distribution of PM2.5 and its variations in Nepal. Although many researchers have developed PM2.5 estimation models, these models have mainly focused on the kilometer scale, which cannot provide accurate spatial distribution of PM2.5 pollution. Based on Gaofen-1/6 and Landsat-8/9 satellite data, we developed a stacked ensemble learning model (named XGBLL) combined with meteorological data, ground PM2.5 concentrations, ground elevation, and population data. The model includes two layers: a XGBoost and Light GBM model in the first layer, and a linear regression model in the second layer. The accuracy of XGBLL model is better than that of a single model, and the fusion of multi-source satellite remote sensing data effectively improves the spatial coverage of PM2.5 concentrations. Besides, the spatial distribution of the daily mean PM2.5 concentrations in the Kathmandu region under different air conditions was analyzed. The validation results showed that the monthly averaged dataset was accurate (R2 = 0.80 and root mean square error = 7.07). In addition, compared to previous satellite PM2.5 datasets in Nepal, the dataset produced in this study achieved superior accuracy and spatial resolution.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Generating Massive Scale-free Networks: Novel Parallel Algorithms using the Preferential Attachment Model

Recently, there has been substantial interest in the study of various random networks as mathematical models of complex systems. As real-life complex systems grow larger, the ability to generate progressively large random networks becomes all the more important. This motivates the need for efficient parallel algorithms for generating such networks. Naïve parallelization of sequential algorithms for generating random networks is inefficient due to inherent dependencies among the edges and the possibility of creating duplicate (parallel) edges. In this article, we present message passing interface-based distributed memory parallel algorithms for generating random scale-free networks using the preferential-attachment model. Our algorithms are experimentally verified to scale very well to a large number of processing elements (PEs), providing near-linear speedups. The algorithms have been exercised with regard to scale and speed to generate scale-free networks with one trillion edges in 6 minutes using 1,000 PEs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Relationship Of Size Distributions To Spectral (300 - 700 Nm) Extinction Parameterization Of Ambient In Situ Aerosols Measured During FIREX-AQ And The Influence Of Aerosol Composition

Hyperspectral (300 - 700 nm, 0.7 nm resolution) aerosol extinction spectra were measured at seven fires in six states in the western United States during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) field campaign in July and August 2019. Obtained using an in situ aerosol sampling method, these spectra are directly comparable to other in situ aerosol measurements such as size distribution and composition. A previous deployment of the in situ Spectral Aerosol Extinction (SpEx) instrument that measured fine mode aerosols (50% size cut of 1.3 µm particle diameter) around the Korean peninsula showed that over this spectral range 2nd order polynomials provided a better fit to the logarithmically transformed spectra than linear fits (representative of Ångström exponents). The two fit parameters (a1, a2) of the polynomials are related to the classic Ångström exponent but provide additional information via their two-dimensional parameter space. The previous work was limited by the lack of commensurate size distribution information. Here, using the FIREX-AQ spectra set it is possible to expand on the previous analysis in three specific ways: 1) size distribution information is available to further elucidate how size distribution maps into (a1, a2) space, 2) the sampled size distributions include larger particles than the Korean study, and 3) the FIREX-AQ data set exhibits smoke-related spectral features in the UV part of the spectrum that are not present in background air nor were they observed previously in the Korean study. The UV spectral features are particularly intriguing as they likely arise from the absorption component of the extinction measurement and therefore may be related to composition. The relationships between the ambient in situ aerosol size distributions, the extinction spectra, and composition will be presented.

Carolyn Jordan↗

Utilizing the Vertical Variability of Precipitation to Improve Radar QPE

Characteristics of the melting layer and raindrop size distribution can be exploited to further improve radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). Using dual-polarimetric radar and disdrometers, we found that the characteristic size of raindrops reaching the ground in stratiform precipitation often varies linearly with the depth of the melting layer. As a result, a radar rainfall estimator was formulated using D(sub m) that can be employed by polarimetric as well as dual-frequency radars (e.g., space-based radars such as the GPM DPR), to lower the bias and uncertainty of conventional single radar parameter rainfall estimates by as much as 20%. Polarimetric radar also suffers from issues associated with sampling the vertical distribution of precipitation. Hence, we characterized the vertical profile of polarimetric parameters (VP3)-a radar manifestation of the evolving size and shape of hydrometeors as they fall to the ground-on dual-polarimetric rainfall estimation. The VP3 revealed that the profile of ZDR in stratiform rainfall can bias dual-polarimetric rainfall estimators by as much as 50%, even after correction for the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR). The VP3 correction technique that we developed can improve operational dual-polarimetric rainfall estimates by 13% beyond that offered by a VPR correction alone.

Precipitation↗

Spectrally Resolved Flux Derived from Collocated AIRS and CERES Observations and its Application in Model Validation: Clear-Sky Over the Tropic Oceans - Part I

Spectrally resolved outgoing IR flux, the integrand of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), has its unique value in evaluating model simulations. Here we describe an algorithm of deriving such clear-sky outgoing spectral flux through the whole IR region from the collocated Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Clouds & the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) measurements over the tropical oceans. Based on the scene types and corresponding angular distribution models (ADMs) used in the CERES Single Satellite Footprint (SSF) dataset, spectrally-dependent ADMs are developed and used to estimate the spectral flux at each AIRS channel. A multivariate linear prediction scheme is then used to estimate spectral fluxes at frequencies not covered by the AIRS instrument. The whole algorithm is validated using synthetic spectra as well as the CERES OLR measurements. Using the GFDL AM2 model simulation as a case study, the application of the derived clear-sky outgoing spectral flux in model evaluation is illustrated. By comparing the observed and simulated spectral flux in 2004, compensating errors in the simulated OLR from different absorption bands can be revealed, so does the errors from frequencies within a given absorption band. Discrepancies between the simulated and observed spatial distributions and seasonal evolutions of the spectral fluxes at different spectral ranges are further discussed. The methodology described in this study can be applied to other surface types as well as cloudy-sky observations and corresponding model evaluations.

Huang, Xianglei↗

An analysis of the effect of hemispheric land-ocean areal distribution upon earth's emitted longwave radiation

Energy balance climate models are used to approximate the global climate based on a zonally-defined land and water area grid. A comparison is made between linear earth-atmosphere-emitted longwave radiation parameterization and a satellite data representation of the same radiation budget available. The satellite data indicate sharp differences between monthly averaged profiles of emitted LW radiation over land and water surfaces in low latitudes, which range from 40 watts/sq m in January, to 9 watts/sq m in May. It is concluded that the linear representation over land and water surfaces which are primarily functions of surface temperature do not characterize the differences in the land/water profiles shown to exist in the Nimbus 6 ERB data.

Stephenson-Graves, D.↗

Analysis of the COS B data for evidence of linear polarization of Vela pulsar gamma rays

The COS B spark chamber telescope observations of the Vela pulsar were analyzed for gamma-ray polarization. No significant quadrupole moment is found in the azimuthal distribution of the electron-positron pair production planes. However, analysis of the sensitivity indicates that even 100-percent polarization would not be detected. Therefore, the null result does not constrain the polarization of the Vela pulsar gamma-ray emission. This result contradicts the report of Caraveo et al. (1988) of possible evidence for polarization of the Vela pulsar gamma rays.

Mattox, John R.↗

Geological Map of the Fredegonde (V-57) Quadrangle, Venus

The area of V-57, the Fredegonde quadrangle (50-75degS, 60-120degE, Fig.1), is located within the eastern portion of Lada Terra within the topographic province of midlands (0-2 km above MPR [1,2]). Midlands form the most abundant portion of the surface of Venus and are characterized by diverse sets of units and structures [3-11]. The area of the Fredegonde quadrangle is in contact with the elevated portion of Lada Terra to the W and with the lowland of Aino Planitia to the NE. The transitions of the mid-lands to the lowlands and highlands are, thus, one of the main themes of the geology within the V-57 quadrangle. The character of the transitions and distribution and sequence of units/structures in the midlands are crucially important in understanding the time and modes of formation of this topographic province. The most prominent features in the map area are linear deformational zones consisting of swarms of grooves and graben and large coronae. The zones characterize the central and NW portions of the map area and represent regionally important, broad (up to 100s km wide) ridges that are 100s m high. Relatively small (100s km across, 100s m deep) equidimensional basins occur between the corona-groove-chains in the west and border the central chain from the east. Here we describe units that make up the surface within the V-57 quadrangle and present a summary of our geological map that shows the areal distribution of the major groups of units.

Ivanov, M. A.↗

The Galactic Distribution of Aliphatic Hydrocarbons in the Diffuse Interstellar Medium

The infrared absorption feature near 2950/ cm (3.4 microns), characteristic of dust in the diffuse interstellar medium (ISM), is attributed to C-H stretching vibrations of aliphatic hydrocarbons. We show here that the strength of the band does not scale linearly with visual extinction everywhere, but instead increases more rapidly for objects near the center of the Galaxy, a behavior that parallels that of the Si-O stretching band due to silicate materials in the diffuse ISM. This implies that the grains responsible for the diffuse medium aliphatic C-H and silicate Si-O stretching bands are different from those responsible for much of the observed visual extinction. It also suggests that the distribution of the carbonaceous component of the diffuse ISM is not uniform throughout the Galaxy, but instead may increase in density toward the center of the Galaxy. The similar behavior of the C-H and Si-O stretching bands suggests that these two components may be coupled, perhaps in the form of silicate-core, organic-mantle grains. Several possible models of the distribution of this material are presented and it is demonstrated that the inner parts of the Galaxy has a carrier density that is 5 to 35 times higher than in the local ISM. Depending on the model used, the density of aliphatic material in the local ISM is found to be about 1 to 2 -CH3 groups /cc and about 2 to 5 -CH2- groups/cc. These densities are consistent with the strengths of the 2955 and 2925/ cm (3.38 and 3.42 microns) subfeatures (due to -CH3 and -CH2- groups, respectively) within the overall 2950/ cm (3.4 microns) band being described by the relations A(sub upsilon)/tau(sub 2925/cm) = 270 +/- 40 and A(sub upsilon)/tau(sub 2925/cm) = 250 +/- 40 in the local diffuse ISM.

Sandford, Scott A.↗

Parameter uncertainties for imperfect surrogate models in the low-noise regime

Abstract Bayesian regression determines model parameters by minimizing the expected loss, an upper bound to the true generalization error. However, this loss ignores model form error, or misspecification, meaning parameter uncertainties are significantly underestimated and vanish in the large data limit. As misspecification is the main source of uncertainty for surrogate models of low-noise calculations, such as those arising in atomistic simulation, predictive uncertainties are systematically underestimated. We analyze the true generalization error of misspecified, near-deterministic surrogate models, a regime of broad relevance in science and engineering. We show that posterior parameter distributions must cover every training point to avoid a divergence in the generalization error and design a compatible ansatz which incurs minimal overhead for linear models. The approach is demonstrated on model problems before application to thousand-dimensional datasets in atomistic machine learning. Our efficient misspecification-aware scheme gives accurate prediction and bounding of test errors in terms of parameter uncertainties, allowing this important source of uncertainty to be incorporated in multi-scale computational workflows.

Swinburne, Thomas D. (ORCID:0000000232554257)↗

Cosmic structure strikes back: The elimination of vector-mediated nonstandard interaction models as a mechanism for sterile neutrino dark matter production

We revisit sterile neutrino production enabled by nonstandard interactions (NSIs) among active neutrinos mediated by new bosons. We focus on vector mediators, including neutrinophilic, gauged 𝐿 𝜇 −𝐿 𝜏 , and 𝐵−𝐿 realizations, that modify in-medium dispersion and scattering, thereby altering the active-sterile conversion history. Building on a novel production framework with NSI thermal potentials and collision integrals, we compute nonthermal phase-space distributions across sterile neutrino mixing and NSI parameters and map each point to an equivalent thermal warm dark matter particle mass 𝑚 th via linear theory transfer function fitting with the cosmological structure formation Boltzmann solver. This enables a direct reinterpretation of state-of-the-art structure formation limits from Milky Way satellites, strong lensing, and the Lyman-𝛼 forest. These limits, in conjunction with x-ray decay searches, as well as results from a wide variety of particle physics experiments allow for a more complete examination of these models. We find that these vector-mediated models are ruled out when the full combination of current constraints, listed above, are taken into account. NSI scalar-mediated models and models with low reheating temperatures remain viable.

cosmology↗

Inference of Induced Fracture Geometries Using Fiber-Optic Distributed Strain Sensing in Hydraulic Fracture Test Site 2

Fiber-optic Distributed Strain Sensor observations in a vertical well allow rapid inference of the time evolution of nearby hydraulic fracture heights and their vertical aperture distributions during stimulation and depressurization. We describe a computationally efficient deconvolutional model based on an elastostatic kernel for fracture opening within an isotropic, homogeneous, linear elastic medium. Furthermore, an application of this model to observations from the Hydraulic Fracture Test Site 2 reveals that ultimate fracture heights are typically greater than those indicated by microseismic monitoring, and some hydraulic fractures continue their upward growth for several hours after high-pressure injections ceased.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗