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At least 1,567 records · Page 87

Mechanistic modelling of SARS-CoV-2 and other infectious diseases and the effects of therapeutics

Modern viral kinetic modeling and its application to therapeutics is a field that attracted the attention of the medical, pharmaceutical and modeling communities during the early days of the AIDS epidemic. Its successes lead to applications of modeling methods not only to HIV but a plethora of other viruses, such as hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and cytomegalovirus (CMV), which along with HIV cause chronic diseases, and viruses such as influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), West Nile virus (WNV), Zika virus, and SAR-CoV-2, which generally cause acute infections. Here we first review the historical development of mathematical models to understand HIV and HCV infections and the effects of treatment by fitting the models to clinical data. Furthermore, we then focus on recent efforts and contributions of applying these models towards understanding SARS-CoV-2 infection and highlight outstanding questions where modeling can provide crucial insights and help to optimize non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions of the COVID-19 pandemic. The review is written from our personal perspective emphasizing the power of simple target cell limited models that provided important insights and then their evolution into more complex models that captured more of the virology and immunology. To quote Albert Einstein “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler”, and this idea underlies the modeling we describe below.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Improved Kelbg Potentials for Z > 1 and Application to Carbon Plasmas

In this work, we present a general form for the electron‐ion diffractive potential derived from the quantum pair density matrix and fit to the improved Kelbg potential for atomic numbers up to $Z = 54$. We apply classical molecular dynamics using the improved Kelbg potential for carbon with various forms of the Pauli potential to compute internal energies and pressures for hot, dense plasma conditions. Our results are compared to an equation of state model based on path integral Monte Carlo and density functional theory simulations to examine the extent to which the improved Kelbg potential reproduces the internal energy and pressure of carbon plasmas. The regions of validity for carbon agree generally with those derived previously for hydrogen once pressure ionization effects are incorporated. Based on our carbon results and previously published hydrogen studies, we discuss the general applicability and limitations of these potentials for equation of state studies in warm dense matter and high energy density plasmas.

general physics↗

Does the leaf economic spectrum hold within plant functional types? A Bayesian multivariate trait meta-analysis

The leaf economic spectrum is a widely-studied axis of plant trait variability that defines a trade-off between leaf longevity and productivity. While this has been investigated at the global scale, where it is robust, and at local scales, where deviations from it are common, it has received less attention at the intermediate scale of PFTs. We investigated whether global leaf economic relationships are also present within the scale of plant functional types (PFTs) commonly used by Earth System models, and the extent to which this global-PFT hierarchy can be used to constrain trait estimates. We developed a hierarchical multivariate Bayesian model that assumes separate means and covariance structures within and across PFTs and fit this model to seven leaf traits from the TRY database related to leaf longevity, morphology, biochemistry, and photosynthetic metabolism. Although patterns of trait covariation were generally consistent with the leaf economic spectrum, we found three approximate tiers to this consistency. Relationships among morphological and biochemical traits (SLA, N, P) were the most robust within and across PFTs, suggesting that covariation in these traits is driven by universal leaf construction trade-offs and stoichiometry. Relationships among metabolic traits (R_d, V_{c,max}, J_max) were slightly less consistent, reflecting in part their much sparser sampling (especially for high-latitude PFTs), but also pointing to more flexible plasticity in plant metabolistm. Finally, relationships involving leaf lifespan were the least consistent, indicating that leaf economic relationships related to leaf lifespan are dominated by across-PFT differences and that within-PFT variation in leaf lifespan is more complex and idiosyncratic. Across all traits, these covariance were an important source of information, as evidenced by the improved imputation accuracy and reduced predictive uncertainty in multivariate models compared to univariate models. Ultimately, our study reaffirms the value of studying not just individual traits but the multivariate trait space and the utility of hierarchical modeling for studying the scale dependence of trait relationships.

biodiversity, ecological modeling, ecology, leaf b↗

Integrating data types to estimate spatial patterns of avian migration across the Western Hemisphere

For many avian species, spatial migration patterns remain largely undescribed, especially across hemispheric extents. Recent advancements in tracking technologies and high-resolution species distribution models (i.e., eBird Status and Trends products) provide new insights into migratory bird movements and offer a promising opportunity for integrating independent data sources to describe avian migration. Here, we present a three-stage modeling framework for estimating spatial patterns of avian migration. First, we integrate tracking and band re-encounter data to quantify migratory connectivity, defined as the relative proportions of individuals migrating between breeding and nonbreeding regions. Next, we use estimated connectivity proportions along with eBird occurrence probabilities to produce probabilistic least-cost path (LCP) indices. In a final step, we use generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) both to evaluate the ability of LCP indices to accurately predict (i.e., as a covariate) observed locations derived from tracking and band re-encounter data sets versus pseudo-absence locations during migratory periods and to create a fully integrated (i.e., eBird occurrence, LCP, and tracking/band re-encounter data) spatial prediction index for mapping species-specific seasonal migrations. To illustrate this approach, we apply this framework to describe seasonal migrations of 12 bird species across the Western Hemisphere during pre- and postbreeding migratory periods (i.e., spring and fall, respectively). We found that including LCP indices with eBird occurrence in GAMMs generally improved the ability to accurately predict observed migratory locations compared to models with eBird occurrence alone. Using three performance metrics, the eBird + LCP model demonstrated equivalent or superior fit relative to the eBird-only model for 22 of 24 species–season GAMMs. In particular, the integrated index filled in spatial gaps for species with over-water movements and those that migrated over land where there were few eBird sightings and, thus, low predictive ability of eBird occurrence probabilities (e.g., Amazonian rainforest in South America). This methodology of combining individual-based seasonal movement data with temporally dynamic species distribution models provides a comprehensive approach to integrating multiple data types to describe broad-scale spatial patterns of animal movement. Further development and customization of this approach will continue to advance knowledge about the full annual cycle and conservation of migratory birds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Resident and transient coyotes exhibit differential patterns of movement behavior across heterogeneous landscapes in the southeastern United States

Coyotes (Canis latrans) are a highly adaptable canid species whose behavioral plasticity has allowed them to persist in a wide array of habitats throughout North America. As generalists, coyotes can alter movement patterns and change territorial strategies between residency (high site fidelity) and transiency (low site fidelity) to maximize fitness. Uncertainty remains about resident and transient coyote movement patterns and habitat use because research has reached conflicting conclusions regarding patterns of habitat use by both groups. We quantified effects of habitat on resident and transient coyote movement behavior using first passage time (FPT) analysis, which assesses recursive movement along an individual's movement path to delineate where they exhibit area-restricted search (ARS) behaviors relative to habitat attributes. We quantified monthly movement rates for 171 coyotes (76 residents and 53 transients) and then used estimated FPT values in generalized linear mixed models to quantify monthly habitat use for resident and transient coyotes. Transients had greater movement rates than residents across all months except January. Resident FPT values were positively correlated with agricultural land cover during fall and winter, but negatively correlated with agriculture during spring. Resident FPT values were also negatively correlated with developed habitats during May–August, deciduous land cover during June–August, and wetlands during September–January except November. FPT values of transient coyotes were positively correlated with developed areas throughout much of the year and near wetlands during July–September. Transient FPT values were negatively correlated with agriculture during all months except June and July. High FPT values (ARS behavior) of residents and transients were generally correlated with greater densities of edge habitat. Although we observed high individual variation in space use, our study found substantive differences in habitat use between residents and transients, providing further evidence that complexity and plasticity of coyote habitat use is influenced by territorial strategy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deriving spatially explicit direct and indirect interaction networks from animal movement data

Abstract Quantifying spatiotemporally explicit interactions within animal populations facilitates the understanding of social structure and its relationship with ecological processes. Data from animal tracking technologies (Global Positioning Systems [“GPS”]) can circumvent longstanding challenges in the estimation of spatiotemporally explicit interactions, but the discrete nature and coarse temporal resolution of data mean that ephemeral interactions that occur between consecutive GPS locations go undetected. Here, we developed a method to quantify individual and spatial patterns of interaction using continuous‐time movement models (CTMMs) fit to GPS tracking data. We first applied CTMMs to infer the full movement trajectories at an arbitrarily fine temporal scale before estimating interactions, thus allowing inference of interactions occurring between observed GPS locations. Our framework then infers indirect interactions—individuals occurring at the same location, but at different times—while allowing the identification of indirect interactions to vary with ecological context based on CTMM outputs. We assessed the performance of our new method using simulations and illustrated its implementation by deriving disease‐relevant interaction networks for two behaviorally differentiated species, wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) that can host African Swine Fever and mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) that can host chronic wasting disease. Simulations showed that interactions derived from observed GPS data can be substantially underestimated when temporal resolution of movement data exceeds 30‐min intervals. Empirical application suggested that underestimation occurred in both interaction rates and their spatial distributions. CTMM‐Interaction method, which can introduce uncertainties, recovered majority of true interactions. Our method leverages advances in movement ecology to quantify fine‐scale spatiotemporal interactions between individuals from lower temporal resolution GPS data. It can be leveraged to infer dynamic social networks, transmission potential in disease systems, consumer–resource interactions, information sharing, and beyond. The method also sets the stage for future predictive models linking observed spatiotemporal interaction patterns to environmental drivers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Juvenile life history diversity is associated with lifetime individual heterogeneity in a migratory fish

Abstract Differences in the life history pathways (LHPs) of juvenile animals are often associated with differences in demographic rates in later life stages. For migratory animals, different LHPs often result in animals from the same population occupying distinct habitats subjected to different environmental drivers. Understanding how demographic rates differ among animals expressing different LHPs may reveal fitness trade‐offs that drive the expression of alternative LHPs and enable better prediction of population dynamics in a changing environment. To understand how demographic outcomes and their relationships with environmental variables differ among animals with different LHPs, we analyzed a long‐term (2006–2021) mark–recapture dataset for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) from the Wenatchee River, Washington, USA. Distinct LHPs represented in this population include either remaining in the natal stream until emigrating to the ocean as a 1‐year‐old (natal‐reach rearing) or emigrating from the natal stream and rearing in downstream habitats for several months before completing the emigration to the ocean as a 1‐year‐old (downstream rearing). We found that downstream‐rearing fish emigrated to the ocean 19 days earlier on average and returned as adults from the ocean at higher rates. We detected a positive correlation between rate of return from the ocean by downstream‐rearing fish and coastal upwelling in their spring of outmigration, whereas for natal‐reach‐rearing fish we detected a positive correlation with sea surface temperature during their first marine summer. Different responses to environmental variability should lead to asynchrony in adult abundance among juvenile LHPs. A higher proportion of downstream‐rearing fish returned at younger ages compared with natal‐reach‐rearing fish, which contributed to variability in age at reproduction and greater mixing across generations. Our results demonstrate how diversity in juvenile LHPs is associated with heterogeneity in demographic rates during subsequent life stages, which can in turn affect variance in aggregate population abundance and response to environmental change. Our findings underscore the importance of considering life history diversity in demographic analyses and provide insights into the effects of life history diversity on population dynamics and trade‐offs that contribute to the maintenance of life history diversity.

Sorel, Mark H.↗

Spatial Bayesian models project shifts in suitable habitat for Pacific Northwest tree species under climate change

Abstract We developed spatial Bayesian hierarchical models to assess potential climate change impacts on suitable habitat for five important tree species in the Pacific northwestern United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Individual‐species models were fit with presence–absence data from forest inventory field plots and spatial relationships were specified through a conditional autoregressive model. This modeling approach allowed us to visualize uncertainty in response curves, map current and future prediction uncertainty, and provide interval estimates for change. Upward elevational or northward latitudinal shifts in climatically suitable habitat were projected for all species. Climate change impacts were the most damaging for noble fir ( Abies procera ), for which 79%–100% of the current range was projected to become climatically unsuitable by the 2080s. Although coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) has been projected by others to gain habitat in Canada, within our study area we projected a net loss of climatically suitable habitat (ca. 8000–31,400 km 2 ) under three of four future climate scenarios. A net loss in habitat was also projected for Oregon white oak ( Quercus garryana ) under three of four scenarios, with 40%–60% of the current range becoming unsuitable. Although there was no net loss of habitat for forest land blue oak under any scenario, other factors like competition may inhibit blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) and white oak from occupying areas projected to increase in climatic suitability. Additionally, between 13% and 32% of blue oak's current range was projected to become unsuitable; some of these areas aligned with dieback following the 2012–2015 California drought, which our data set predates. Unlike the other four species, we projected a 17%–25% increase in climatically suitable habitat for California black oak ( Quercus kelloggii ), although 1%–20% of the current range was still projected to become unsuitable. Our findings indicate that, although some species will face more pressure in tracking climatically suitable habitat than others, climate change will impact the location of suitable habitat for many species.

Kralicek, Karin↗

Reduction Thermodynamics of Sr 1– x Ce x MnO 3 and Ce x Sr 2– x MnO 4 Perovskites for Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen Production

Herein, the compositional families Sr 1–x Ce x MnO 3 (SCMX, X = 100x, x = 0.10, 0.20, and 0.30) and Ce x Sr 2–x MnO 4 (CSMX, X = 100x, x = 0.10, 0.20, and 0.30) are studied to determine the effects of perovskite structure and cerium content on thermal reduction thermodynamics and the resulting impact on solar thermochemical hydrogen production (STCH). Relying on thermogravimetric results from oxygen nonstoichiometry experiments, fits for various thermodynamic quantities are produced, including defect-reaction specific enthalpy (Δ H) and entropy (Δ S ), as well as the δ-dependent standard partial molar enthalpy, Δh¯$^{°}_{Ο}$, and entropy Δs¯$^{°}_{Ο}$, of oxygen as a function of composition within these two perovskite families. Here, the results of this thermodynamic study are also discussed in the context of structure and cerium dopant level. Experimental hydrogen production results show that the SCM family produces slightly larger amounts of hydrogen per mole of oxide compared with the CSM family under similar reduction and oxidation temperature conditions, however, a direct correlation between structure, cerium content, and water-splitting capacity could not be discerned.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Parasitic Effects in Impedance Spectrum of PEM Water Electrolysis Cells: Case Study of High-Frequency Inductive Effects

Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) is a powerful tool to characterize and distinguish electrochemical, electrical, and diffusive processes in an electrolysis cell. The EIS response with small impedance (mΩ) depends on components and materials of the cell, but often also on the electrical setup, cables, and connectors, leading to incorrect conclusions about the performance of the electrolysis cells. These parasitic effects are assessed via a short-circuit measurement and confirmed to be external from the membrane electrode assembly (MEA). In the setup, the inductive characteristic is described by a modified inductive reactance and must be included in the equivalent circuit model (ECM) which is fitting the cell EIS spectra in operation (in situ). If points of the spectra showing inductive characteristic (below x-axis in Nyquist plot) are excluded from the ECM evaluation, an artificially increased ohmic resistance at high frequencies is obtained. In addition, considerations on other components of the ECM can be misleading and significantly incorrect. The only way to avoid that inductive behavior caused by the external setup is incorrectly assigned to the ECM describing properties of the MEA is to include the inductive effects in the ECM analysis of in situ EIS measurements.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Enhanced prediction of Cs removal by CST from Hanford tank waste with K accountability

Abstract The treatment of Hanford tank waste is one of the most challenging environmental cleanup activities to date. To expedite the processing of liquid waste stored in underground tanks in Washington State it is necessary to remove the significant dose contributor, 137 Cs. Crystalline silicotitanate ion exchanger is currently used to remove 137 Cs from the aqueous phase of Hanford tank wastes in preparation for vitrification at the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). Improving the understanding of potassium impacts on ion exchange behavior of Cs will help in the operation of a critical component of one of the most complex treatment processes in the world today. Optimization of this process can result in significant cost savings and less waste production. Toward this effort, a series of batch contact tests varied in potassium concentration were conducted to look at the impact of potassium concentration on Cs distribution. Experimental distribution ratios ( K d ) were compared to the distribution ratios predicted using the ZAM model. A significant underprediction of Cs capacity in the presence of potassium was seen with the existing model. A revision of the equilibrium constants was determined and provided a statistically better fit for determining the Cs K d values in tank waste matrices.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Effects of different pretreatment methods on the drying characteristics and quality of potatoes

Abstract The effects of different pretreatments on the vitamin C content of peeled fresh potato, the drying characteristics, and several quality attributes of dehydrated potatoes were investigated. Citric acid pretreatment (0.1%–0.3%, 10–30 min), steam blanching (100ºC, 1–2 min), and water blanching (95°C, 1–2 min) were found to have no obvious effect on the drying rate of potatoes, whereas temperature was the main influencing factor. In terms of quality of dehydrated diced potato, 20 min of citric acid pretreatment resulted in the highest vitamin C retention and better color. Furthermore, dehydrated potato pretreated with citric acid all showed similar dynamic moisture adsorption curves, namely type II sorption isotherm. The moisture adsorption curves can be well fitted using the Guggenheim–Anderson–deBoer model with R 2 higher than .97.

Sun, Xiangfeng↗

Bioinspired mechanically interlocking holey graphene@SiO 2 anode

Mechanically interlocking structures that can enhance adhesion at the interface and regulate the stress distribution have been widely observed in biological systems. Inspired by the biological structures in the wings of beetles, we synthesized a holey graphene@SiO 2 anode with strong mechanical interlocking, characterized it electrochemically, and explained its performance by finite element analysis and density functional calculations. The mechanically interlocking structure enhances lithium-ion (Li + ) storage by transmitting the strain from SiO 2 to the holey graphene and by a mechano-electrochemical coupling effect. The interlocking fit hinders the abscission of SiO 2 and the distinctive structure reduces the stress and strain of SiO 2 during (de)lithiation. The positive mechano-electrochemical coupling effect preserves the amount of electrochemically active phase (Li x Si) during cycles and facilitates Li + diffusion. Therefore, the capacity shows only a slight attenuation after 8000 cycles (cycling stability), and the specific capacity is ~1200 mA h g –1 at 5 A/g (rate-performance). This study furnishes a novel way to design high-performance Li + /Na + /K + /Al 3+ anodes with large volume expansion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Human–mouse comparison of the multistage nature of radiation carcinogenesis in a mathematical model

Abstract Mouse models are vital for assessing risk from environmental carcinogens, including ionizing radiation, yet the interspecies difference in the dose response precludes direct application of experimental evidence to humans. Herein, we take a mathematical approach to delineate the mechanism underlying the human–mouse difference in radiation‐related cancer risk. We used a multistage carcinogenesis model assuming a mutational action of radiation to analyze previous data on cancer mortality in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in lifespan mouse experiments. Theoretically, the model predicted that exposure will chronologically shift the age‐related increase in cancer risk forward by a period corresponding to the time in which the spontaneous mutational process generates the same mutational burden as that the exposure generates. This model appropriately fitted both human and mouse data and suggested a linear dose response for the time shift. The effect per dose decreased with increasing age at exposure similarly between humans and mice on a per‐lifespan basis (0.72‐ and 0.71‐fold, respectively, for every tenth lifetime). The time shift per dose was larger by two orders of magnitude in humans (7.8 and 0.046 years per Gy for humans and mice, respectively, when exposed at ~35% of their lifetime). The difference was mostly explained by the two orders of magnitude difference in spontaneous somatic mutation rates between the species plus the species‐independent radiation‐induced mutation rate. Thus, the findings delineate the mechanism underlying the interspecies difference in radiation‐associated cancer mortality and may lead to the use of experimental evidence for risk prediction in humans.

Oncology↗

Examining polymer‐protein biophysical interactions with small‐angle x‐ray scattering and quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation

Abstract Polymer‐protein hybrids can be deployed to improve protein solubility and stability in denaturing environments. While previous work used robotics and active machine learning to inform new designs, further biophysical information is required to ascertain structure–function behavior. Here, we show the value of tandem small‐angle x‐ray scattering (SAXS) and quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation (QCMD) experiments to reveal detailed polymer‐protein interactions with horseradish peroxidase (HRP) as a test case. Of particular interest was the process of polymer‐protein complex formation under thermal stress whereby SAXS monitors formation in solution while QCMD follows these dynamics at an interface. The radius of gyration ( R g ) of the protein as measured by SAXS does not change significantly in the presence of polymer under denaturing conditions, but thickness and dissipation changes were observed in QCMD data. SAXS data with and without thermal stress were utilized to create bead models of the potential complexes and denatured enzyme, and each model fit provided insight into the degree of interactions. Additionally, QCMD data demonstrated that HRP deforms by spreading upon surface adsorption at low concentration as shown by longer adsorption times and smaller frequency shifts. In contrast, thermally stressed and highly inactive HRP had faster adsorption kinetics. The combination of SAXS and QCMD serves as a framework for biophysical characterization of interactions between proteins and polymers which could be useful in designing polymer‐protein hybrids.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Anion Binding by Macrocyclic Receptors: Computational Landscape of 1:1 and 2:1 Stoichiometries

Macrocyclic receptors play a crucial role in supramolecular chemistry, enabling the selective binding of guest molecules through non-covalent interactions. This study investigates the anion binding properties of three shape-persistent macrocycles, triazolophane, cyanostar, and tricarb, each featuring preorganized cavities with polarized CH hydrogen bond donors. In the 1:1 binding stoichiometries, the macrocycles preferentially bind anions that fit inside their two-dimensional cavities, with this preference being more pronounced in solution. Specifically, the triazolophane favors smaller anions like chloride and bromide, while the larger cavities offered by cyanostar and tricarb macrocycles preferentially bind the larger iodide. For large, polyatomic anions (SCN − , BF$^{−}_{4}$, ClO$^{−}_{4}$, and PF$^{−}_{6}$), the macrocycles self-assemble to form stable 2:1 sandwich complexes, exhibiting stronger binding. This shift in selectivity highlights the versatility of the macrocycles, making them promising candidates for anion sensing and regulation with various complexation stoichiometries.

Che, Minwei [Indiana University, Bloomington, IN (↗

Impact of moderate pump–Stokes chirp on femtosecond coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering spectra

The effects of inducing moderate chirp in the pump and Stokes beams in chirped-probe-pulse femtosecond coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS) spectroscopy are discussed. This is an important issue for measurements in high-pressure systems where the CARS beams must be transmitted through glass of significant thickness to reach the probe volume of interest. The effects were investigated both experimentally, by inserting disks of SF-11 glass into the pump and Stokes beam paths, and theoretically, by incorporating pulse chirp into our time-dependent density matrix (TDDM) simulations. Experimentally, we found that inducing moderate pump and Stokes chirp produced significant spectral narrowing of the nonresonant four-wave mixing contribution to the CARS signal, and this allowed us to control the resonant excitation bandwidth to eliminate interferences from neighboring species. The temperature measurement accuracy and precision were essentially unchanged with respect to the unchirped pump and Stokes case. The effect of moderate pump and Stokes chirp on the narrowing of the Raman excitation efficiency envelope was investigated by solving the full set of TDDM through direct numerical integration. The numerical efficiency of the solutions was enhanced dramatically by developing a parallel version of the TDDM code. The calculated Raman excitation efficiency profile was incorporated in our phenomenological spectral fitting codes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗