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At least 1,567 records · Page 87

Quantum Chemical Calculation of p K a s of Environmentally Relevant Functional Groups: Carboxylic Acids, Amines, and Thiols in Aqueous Solution

Developing accurate quantum chemical approaches for calculating p K a s is of broad interest. Useful accuracy can be obtained by using density functional theory (DFT) in combination with a polarizable continuum solvent model. However, some classes of molecules present problems for this approach, yielding errors greater than 5 p K units. Various methods have been developed to improve the accuracy of the combined strategy. These methods perform well but either do not generalize or introduce additional degrees of freedom, increasing the computational cost. The Solvation Model based on Density (SMD) has emerged as one of the most commonly used continuum solvent models. Nevertheless, for some classes of organic compounds, e.g., thiols, the p K a s calculated with the original SMD model show errors of 6–10 p K units, and we traced these errors to inaccuracies in the solvation free energies of the anions. To improve the accuracy of p K a s calculated with DFT and the SMD model, we developed a scaled solvent-accessible surface approach for constructing the solute–solvent boundary. By using a “direct” approach, in which all quantities are computed in the presence of the continuum solvent, the use of thermodynamic cycles is avoided. Furthermore, no explicit water molecules are required. Three benchmark data sets of experimentally measured p K a values, including 28 carboxylic acids, 10 aliphatic amines, and 45 thiols, were used to assess the optimized SMD model, which we call SMD with a scaled solvent-accessible surface (SMD sSAS ). Of the methods tested, the M06-2X density functional approximation, 6-31+G(d,p) basis set, and SMD sSAS solvent model provided the most accurate p K a s for each set, yielding mean unsigned errors of 0.9, 0.4, and 0.5 p K units, respectively, for carboxylic acids, aliphatic amines, and thiols. As a result, this approach is therefore useful for efficiently calculating the p K a s of environmentally relevant functional groups.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A metric for evaluating conformance robustness during geologic CO 2 sequestration operations

A metric for quantifying the robustness of a designation of conformance of a geologic CO 2 sequestration (GCS) project during its operational phase is developed and demonstrated. Conformance in this context is a measure of the degree to which the sequestration system is understood and can be accurately modeled along with the degree to which the storage system is performing as designed. The robustness of conformance quantifies the degree to which parameter values can deviate from their current nominal estimates and still produce model forecasts that meet the performance criteria for the GCS operation. We develop and demonstrate the approach on a simplified scenario to illustrate the concept using a single uncertain parameter (homogeneous reservoir permeability) and a single performance criterion (critical pressure at a monitoring well in the reservoir; i.e., one that may displace brine from the reservoir to an overlying drinking water aquifer for example). Increased confidence in conformance assessment as more monitoring data are obtained is incorporated through the standard error of the coefficient (reservoir permeability in the case presented here), which we designate as the concordance metric. As more monitoring data become available during the course of the GCS operation, the standard error of the coefficient decreases (in general), thereby leading to increased conformance robustness as a larger deviation from nominal is required to fail to meet performance criteria. Increasing conformance robustness over time builds confidence that a GCS project will continue to meet performance criteria during the life-span of the project, thereby supporting designations of conformance. Furthermore a lack of conformance robustness provides a critical warning that the performance criteria of the GCS operation are not robust against probabilistic and non-probabilistic uncertainty in model conceptualization and/or model parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Fishing for Clickbaits in Social Images and Texts with Linguistically-Infused Neural Network Models

This paper presents the results and conclusions of our participation in the Clickbait Challenge 2017 on automatic clickbait detection in social media. We first describe linguistically-infused neural network models and identify informative representations to predict the level of clickbaiting present in Twitter posts. Our models allow to answer the question not only whether a post is a clickbait or not, but to what extent it is a clickbait post e.g., not at all, slightly, considerably, or heavily clickbaity using a score ranging from 0 to 1. We evaluate the predictive power of models trained on varied text and image representations extracted from tweets. Our best performing model that relies on the tweet text and linguistic markers of biased language extracted from the tweet and the corresponding page yields mean squared error (MSE) of 0.04, mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.16 and R2 of 0.43 on the held-out test data. For the binary classification setup (clickbait vs. non-clickbait), our model achieved F1 score of 0.69. We have not found that image representations combined with text yield significant performance improvement yet. Nevertheless, this work is the first to present preliminary analysis of objects extracted using Google Tensorflow object detection API from images in clickbait vs. non-clickbait Twitter posts. Finally, we outline several steps to improve model performance as a part of the future work.

dlickbait challenge, Twitter, neural networks, mac↗

Offline Maximizing Minimally Invasive Proper Orthogonal Decomposition for Reduced-Order Modeling of S n Radiation Transport

Deterministic solutions to the Sn radiation transport equation can be computationally expensive to calculate. Reduced-order modeling enables efficient approximation of the full-order model (FOM) solution. We propose a novel method for constructing reduced-order models (ROMs) of the S n radiation transport equation, offline maximizing minimally invasive (OMMI) proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). POD uses the method of snapshots to create a reduced-order basis for constructing an ROM. Minimally invasive POD leverages the sweep infrastructure existing in deterministic transport codes to create a POD-based ROM, even when infeasible by traditional methods. Offline maximizing minimally invasive proper orthogonal decomposition (OMMI-POD) extends minimally invasive POD by performing sweeps offline, therefore maximizing the potential speedup. OMMI-POD does so by creating a library of reduced systems from a training set. This library of reduced systems is then interpolated to provide a rapid approximate solution of the S n radiation transport equation. The model is evaluated on a set of test problems, achieving a low error with a 466 times speedup over the FOM. Also presented is a study of the effect of sampling method on the performance of OMMI-POD, specifically comparing naive uniform sampling to the more accurate and computationally expensive greedy sampling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

MO-FG-204-01: Improved Noise Suppression for Dual-Energy CT Through Entropy Minimization

Purpose: In dual energy CT (DECT), noise amplification during signal decomposition significantly limits the utility of basis material images. Since clinically relevant objects contain a limited number of materials, we propose to suppress noise for DECT based on image entropy minimization. An adaptive weighting scheme is employed during noise suppression to improve decomposition accuracy with limited effect on spatial resolution and image texture preservation. Methods: From decomposed images, we first generate a 2D plot of scattered data points, using basis material densities as coordinates. Data points representing the same material generate a highly asymmetric cluster. We orient an axis by minimizing the entropy in a 1D histogram of these points projected onto the axis. To suppress noise, we replace pixel values of decomposed images with center-of-mass values in the direction perpendicular to the optimal axis. To limit errors due to cluster overlap, we weight each data point’s contribution based on its high and low energy CT values and location within the image. The proposed method’s performance is assessed on physical phantom studies. Electron density is used as the quality metric for decomposition accuracy. Our results are compared to those without noise suppression and with a recently developed iterative method. Results: The proposed method reduces noise standard deviations of the decomposed images by at least one order of magnitude. On the Catphan phantom, this method greatly preserves the spatial resolution and texture of the CT images and limits induced error in measured electron density to below 1.2%. In the head phantom study, the proposed method performs the best in retaining fine, intricate structures. Conclusion: The entropy minimization based algorithm with adaptive weighting substantially reduces DECT noise while preserving image spatial resolution and texture. Future investigations will include extensive investigations on material decomposition accuracy that go beyond the current electron density calculations. This work was supported in part by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) under Grant Number R21 EB012700.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis

Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Homogenizing Advanced Alloys: Thermodynamic and Kinetic Simulations Followed by Experimental Results

Segregation of solute elements occurs in nearly all metal alloys during solidification. The resultant elemental partitioning can severely degrade as-cast material properties and lead to difficulties during post-processing (e.g., hot shorts and incipient melting). Many cast articles are subjected to a homogenization heat treatment in order to minimize segregation and improve their performance. Traditionally, homogenization heat treatments are based upon past practice or time-consuming trial and error experiments. Through the use of thermodynamic and kinetic modeling software, NETL has designed a systematic method to optimize homogenization heat treatments. Use of the method allows engineers and researchers to homogenize casting chemistries to levels appropriate for a given application. The method also allows for the adjustment of heat treatment schedules to fit limitations on in-house equipment (capability, reliability, etc.) while maintaining clear numeric targets for segregation reduction. In this approach, the Scheil module within Thermo-Calc is used to predict the as-cast segregation present within an alloy, and then diffusion controlled transformations is used to model homogenization kinetics as a function of time and temperature. Examples of computationally designed heat treatments and verification of their effects on segregation and properties of real castings are presented.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Comparative Study of the Efficacy of Local/Global and Parametric/Nonparametric Machine Learning Methods for Establishing Structure–Property Linkages in High-Contrast 3D Elastic Composites

Reduced-order structure–property (S-P) linkages play a pivotal role in the tailored design of materials for advanced engineering components. There is a critical need to distill these from the simulation datasets aggregated using sophisticated, computationally expensive, physics-based numerical tools (e.g., finite element methods). The recent emergence of materials data science approaches has opened new avenues for addressing this challenge. In this paper, we critically compare the relative merits of the application of four distinct machine learning approaches for their efficacy in extracting microstructure-property linkages from the finite element simulation data aggregated on high-contrast elastic composites with different microstructures. The machine learning approaches selected for the study have included different combinations of local/global and parametric/nonparametric approaches. Furthermore, the nonparametric approaches selected for this study are based on Gaussian Process (GP) models that allow for a formal treatment of uncertainty quantification in the predicted values. The predictive performances of these different approaches have been compared against each other using rigorous cross-validation error metrics. Furthermore, their sensitivity to both the dataset size and dimensionality has been investigated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A comprehensive and fair comparison of two neural operators (with practical extensions) based on $\mathrm{FAIR}$ data

Neural operators can learn nonlinear mappings between function spaces and offer a new simulation paradigm for real-time prediction of complex dynamics for realistic diverse applications as well as for system identification in science and engineering. Herein, we investigate the performance of two neural operators, which have shown promising results so far, and we develop new practical extensions that will make them more accurate and robust and importantly more suitable for industrial-complexity applications. The first neural operator, DeepONet, was published in 2019 (Lu et al., 2019), and its original architecture was based on the universal approximation theorem of Chen & Chen (1995). The second one, named Fourier Neural Operator or FNO, was published in 2020, and it is based on parameterizing the integral kernel in the Fourier space. DeepONet is represented by a summation of products of neural networks (NNs), corresponding to the branch NN for the input function and the trunk NN for the output function; both NNs are general architectures, e.g., the branch NN can be replaced with a CNN or a ResNet. According to Kovachki et al. (2021), FNO in its continuous form can be viewed conceptually as a DeepONet with a specific architecture of the branch NN and a trunk NN represented by a trigonometric basis. In order to compare FNO with DeepONet computationally for realistic setups, we develop several extensions of FNO that can deal with complex geometric domains as well as mappings where the input and output function spaces are of different dimensions. We also develop an extended DeepONet with special features that provide inductive bias and accelerate training, and we present a faster implementation of DeepONet with cost comparable to the computational cost of FNO, which is based on the Fast Fourier Transform. Here we consider 16 different benchmarks to demonstrate the relative performance of the two neural operators, including instability wave analysis in hypersonic boundary layers, prediction of the vorticity field of a flapping airfoil, porous media simulations in complex-geometry domains, etc. We follow the guiding principles of FAIR (Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability, and Reusability) for scientific data management and stewardship. The performance of DeepONet and FNO is comparable for relatively simple settings, but for complex geometries the performance of FNO deteriorates greatly. We also compare theoretically the two neural operators and obtain similar error estimates for DeepONet and FNO under the same regularity assumptions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A new approach to modeling temperature-related mortality: Non-linear autoregressive models with exogenous input

Highlights: • NARX models are established in other environmental research, but are unused in temperature-related mortality research. • NARX models do not assume any particular shape to the temperature-mortality association. • NARX models are cross-validated and are easily modified to take on real-time, multi-step-ahead predictions and hindcasts. • Year-round, daily mortality in 41 different US cities was modeled using an ensemble of NARX models in each location. • Models show skill everywhere. Results vary spatially and seasonally, improving upon a persistence model by 17% points. • When compared with distributed lag non-linear models, the output time series are largely similar Temperature-mortality relationships are nonlinear, time-lagged, and can vary depending on the time of year and geographic location, all of which limits the applicability of simple regression models in describing these associations. This research demonstrates the utility of an alternative method for modeling such complex relationships that has gained recent traction in other environmental fields: nonlinear autoregressive models with exogenous input (NARX models). All-cause mortality data and multiple temperature-based data sets were gathered from 41 different US cities, for the period 1975–2010, and subjected to ensemble NARX modeling. Models generally performed better in larger cities and during the winter season. Across the US, median absolute percentage errors were 10% (ranging from 4% to 15% in various cities), the average improvement in the r-squared over that of a simple persistence model was 17% (6–24%), and the hit rate for modeling spike days in mortality (>80th percentile) was 54% (34–71%). Mortality responded acutely to hot summer days, peaking at 0–2 days of lag before dropping precipitously, and there was an extended mortality response to cold winter days, peaking at 2–4 days of lag and dropping slowly and continuing for multiple weeks. Spring and autumn showed both of the aforementioned temperature-mortality relationships, but generally to a lesser magnitude than what was seen in summer or winter. When compared to distributed lag nonlinear models, NARX model output was nearly identical. These results highlight the applicability of NARX models for use in modeling complex and time-dependent relationships for various applications in epidemiology and environmental sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating route to impact convergence of the harmonic balance method for piecewise-smooth systems

Here in this work, we investigate the applicability of the harmonic balance method (HBM) to predict periodic solutions of a single degree-of-freedom forced Duffing oscillator with freeplay nonlinearity. By studying the route to impact, which refers to a parametric study as the contact stiffness increases from soft to hard, the convergence behavior of the HBM can be understood in terms of the strength of the non-smooth forcing term. HBM results are compared to time-integration results to facilitate an evaluation of the accuracy of nonlinear periodic responses. An additional contribution of this study is to perform convergence and stability analysis specifically for isolas generated by the non-smooth nonlinearity. Residual error analysis is used to determine the approximate number of harmonics required to get results accurate to a given error tolerance. Hill’s method and Floquet theory are employed to compute the stability of periodic solutions and identify the types of bifurcations in the system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Data-driven model for divertor plasma detachment prediction

We present a fast and accurate data-driven surrogate model for divertor plasma detachment prediction leveraging the latent feature space concept in machine learning research. Our approach involves constructing and training two neural networks: an autoencoder that finds a proper latent space representation (LSR) of plasma state by compressing the multi-modal diagnostic measurements and a forward model using multi-layer perception (MLP) that projects a set of plasma control parameters to its corresponding LSR. By combining the forward model and the decoder network from autoencoder, this new data-driven surrogate model is able to predict a consistent set of diagnostic measurements based on a few plasma control parameters. In order to ensure that the crucial detachment physics is correctly captured, highly efficient 1D UEDGE model is used to generate training and validation data in this study. The benchmark between the data-driven surrogate model and UEDGE simulations shows that our surrogate model is capable of providing accurate detachment prediction (usually within a few per cent relative error margin) but with at least four orders of magnitude speed-up, indicating that performance-wise, it has the potential to facilitate integrated tokamak design and plasma control. Comparing with the widely used two-point model and/or two-point model formatting, the new data-driven model features additional detachment front prediction and can be easily extended to incorporate richer physics. This study demonstrates that the complicated divertor and scrape-off-layer plasma state has a low-dimensional representation in latent space. Understanding plasma dynamics in latent space and utilising this knowledge could open a new path for plasma control in magnetic fusion energy research.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Modelling the nonlinear plasma response to externally applied three-dimensional fields with the Stepped Pressure Equilibrium Code

Small-amplitude, symmetry-breaking magnetic field perturbations, including resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) and error fields, can profoundly impact plasma properties in both tokamaks and stellarators. In this work, we perform the first comparison between the Stepped Pressure Equilibrium Code (SPEC) (a comparatively fast and efficient equilibrium code based on energy-minimisation principles) and M3D-C 1 (a high-fidelity albeit computationally expensive initial-value extended-magnetohydro-dynamic (MHD) code) to assess the conditions under which SPEC can be used to model the nonlinear, non-ideal plasma response to an externally applied (m = 2,n = 1) RMP field in an experimentally relevant geometry. We find that SPEC is able to capture the plasma response in the weakly nonlinear regime – meaning perturbation amplitudes below the threshold for break up of the separatrix and onset of secondary magnetic island formation – when around half of the total toroidal flux is enclosed in the volume containing the q = 2 resonant surface. Further, the observed dependence of SPEC solutions on input parameters, including toroidal flux and the number of volumes into which the plasma is partitioned, indicates that additional exploration of the underlying Multi-Region Relaxed MHD physics model is needed to constrain the choice of parameters. Nonetheless, this work suggests promising applications of SPEC to optimisation and fusion plasma design.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

What Makes Fluoroethylene Carbonate Different?

Rechargeable lithium-ion batteries containing silicon-based negative electrodes have the potential to revolutionize electrical energy storage, but carbonate solvents (such as ethylene carbonate) that are commonly used in graphite Li-ion batteries, yield unsatisfactory performance when used with such Li alloying electrodes. It has been found by trial-and-error that additions of the closely related carbonate additive, fluoroethylene carbonate (FEC) to conventional electrolytes, yields a robust solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) on the LixSiy alloy surface. Several mechanisms for this protective action have been considered in the literature and modeled theoretically; however, at present these mechanisms remain speculative. In this study, we use radiolysis, laser photoionization, electron paramagnetic resonance, and transient absorption spectroscopy to establish the redox chemistry of FEC. While the oxidation chemistry is similar to that of other carbonates, the reduction chemistry is strikingly different. Specifically, one-electron reduction of FEC causes the fission of two (instead of one) C-O bonds, resulting in concerted defluorination and decarboxylation. This reaction yields the vinoxyl radical that can abstract an H atom from FEC, initiating both the chain reaction causing FEC decomposition and radical polymerization involving the reaction products. The resulting polymer can further defluorinate yielding the interior radicals that migrate and recombine to produce a highly cross-linked network. We suggest that the outer SEI resulting from FEC addition has elastomeric properties, which account for its cohesion during expansion and contraction of silicon particles in the course of Li alloying/dealloying cycling.

electron paramagnetic resonance↗

A Differentiable Hydrology Approach for Modeling With Time-Varying Parameters

In the analysis of observational data with mathematical models, it is often desirable to let one or more model parameters vary with time to account for changing environmental conditions or to offer more flexibility. A standard approach for dynamic models is to allow for the number of parameters to grow as a function of time, leading to a high-dimensional inference problem for long data records. We propose using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, a gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to perform Bayesian inference for time-varying parameters (TVP) in hydrology models. As derivatives of model error functions with regard to parameters are not available in closed form, we implemented the GR4J rainfall-runoff models in Theano/PyMC3, and Jax/NumPyro, allowing for the application of automatic differentiation techniques. A simulation experiment assessing the viability of these methods for recovering underlying temporal variation in parameters indicates that a discrete Gaussian random walk-based prior appears to be best suited across a range of scenarios while the continuous-time Gaussian process compares relatively poorly. In an analysis of 20 years of daily real-world streamflow records from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) hydrology data set with increasing data sparsity and at multiple temporal resolutions, we find that TVP inference with gradient-based MCMC is a flexible and reliable approach for analyzing hydrology models with dynamic parameter sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of machine learning techniques to optimize the analysis of plutonium surrogate material via a portable LIBS device

The utilization of machine learning techniques has become commonplace in the analysis of optical emission spectra. These methods are often limited to variants of principal components analysis (PCA), partial-least squares (PLS), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). A plethora of other techniques exist and are well established in the world of data science, yet are seldom investigated for their use in spectroscopic problems. In this study, machine learning techniques were used to analyze optical emission spectra of laser-induced plasma from ceria pellets doped with silicon in order to predict silicon content. Additionally, a boosted regression ensemble model was created, and its predictive accuracy was compared to that of traditional PCA, PLS, and ANN regression models. Boosted regression tree ensembles yielded fits with R-squared (R2) values as high as 0.964 and mean-squared errors of prediction (MSEPs) as low as 0.074, providing the most accurate predictive model. Neural networks performed with slightly lower R2 values and higher MSEPs compared to the ensemble methods, thus indicating susceptibility to overfitting.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗