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At least 1,567 records · Page 87

Ice Surface Elevation Changes in East Antarctica from Satellite Altimetry

Estimates of the overall mass balance and seasonal and inter-annual variations in the surface mass balance are obtainable from time-series of ice surface elevations measured by satellite altimetry. Beginning in 2001, NASA's ICESat laser altimeter and lidar mission will significantly improve the range accuracy, the orbit accuracy, and the spatial coverage for measurement of ice sheet elevations (to 86 S) , as compared to previous radar altimeters designed for ocean measurements The radar altimeters on Seasat and Geosat provided ice sheet measurements to 72 S, and on ERS-1 and ERS-2 to 81 S. Although radar altimetry has significant limitations in coverage (due to loss of tracking) and accuracy over sloping surfaces, information on ice-sheet surface-elevation changes has been derived for parts of Antarctica. Recently, the accuracy of the ice measurements by Seasat (3 months of 1978) and Geosat (1985 to 1989) have been improved by new calculations of the satellite orbit heights and other altimeter corrections. Residual orbit errors and inter-satellite biases are evaluated by crossover analysis and by global adjustments to an ocean surface derived from altimeter data. The standard deviation of the orbit error is less than 9 cm, and the long-term trend in the error appears to be less than 1 cm/yr. Orbit errors can be further reduced by adjustment to the ocean surface, but false signals of several cm/yr may be also introduced by the adjustments. These false signals are caused mainly by residual errors in the altimeter corrections over the ocean, and secondary by real changes in the ocean surface elevation. Maps of ice sheet elevation changes north of 72 S are derived from Seasat-Geosat crossovers and from 4.5 years of Geosat crossovers. A notable ice thinning rate of about 50 cm/yr is found at elevations below 2200 meters between 70 and 72 S to the East of the Amery ice shelf, in both the Seasat-Geosat and Geosat-Geosat time intervals Above 2200 meters, to the ridge around 95 E, the thinning is about 10 to 20 cm/yr. For the Seasat/Geosat interval, a thickening is noted on the area East of the ridge between about 95 E and 115 E. Preliminary results from analysis of ERS-1 and ERS-2 radar altimeter data are also described.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

Space View Issues for Hyperspectral Sounders

The expectation for climate quality measurements from hyperspectral sounders is absolute calibration accuracy at the 100 mK level and stability at the < 40 mK/decade level. The Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS)1, Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) hyperspectral sounders currently in orbit have been shown to agree well over most of their brightness temperature range. Some larger discrepancies are seen, however, at the coldest scene temperatures, such as those seen in Antarctic winter and deep convective clouds. A key limiting factor for the calibrated scene radiance accuracy for cold scenes is how well the effective radiance of the cold space view pertains to the scene views. The space view signal is composed of external sources and instrument thermal emission at about 270 K from the scan mirror, external baffles, etc. Any difference in any of these contributions between space views and scene views will impact the absolute calibration accuracy, and the impact can be critical for cold scenes. Any change over time in these will show up as an apparent trend in calibrated radiances. We use AIRS data to investigate the validity of the space view assumption in view of the 100 mK accuracy and 40 mK/decade trend expectations. We show that the space views used for the cold calibration point for AIRS v5 Level-1B products meet these standards except under special circumstances and that AIRS v6 Level-1B products will meet them under all circumstances. This analysis also shows the value of having multiple distinct space views to give operational redundancy and analytic data, and that reaching climate quality requires continuing monitoring of aging instruments and adjustment of calibration.

trends↗

Production of Fischer-Tropsch Synfuels at Nuclear Plants

A case study analysis was performed to evaluate nuclear-powered synthetic fuel production in the midwestern United States (U.S.). A Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuel synthesis plant design was used as the basis for the analysis. The FT plant design was configured to produce a product slate consisting of diesel fuel, jet fuel, and motor gasoline blend stocks from carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and hydrogen (H 2 ) feedstocks. The CO 2 feedstock for the FT plant was assumed to be sourced from biorefineries in the region around a Midwest light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant (NPP). The analysis specifies that power from the LWR is used to produce H 2 via high-temperature steam electrolysis and to operate the FT synfuel production plant. Capital costs were estimated for the FT plant while capital costs for the electrolysis plant were based on previous Idaho National Laboratory (INL) studies. In addition to labor and maintenance costs for the FT and electrolysis plants, operating costs also include the costs for CO 2 feedstock transport. An analysis was performed to determine the cost of transporting CO 2 from the distributed biorefinery sources to the centralized fuel synthesis plant as a function of the synfuel plant capacity and corresponding CO 2 demand. The primary revenue streams are associated with sales of the synthetic fuel products. The synthetic fuel products will likely follow the same market trends as the conventional fuel products. The synfuel price data was thus based on projections made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2021 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for conventional fuel products minus federal and state taxes, as well as marketing and distribution costs. The economic analysis also considered cases that included and excluded revenues from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) clean hydrogen production tax credit (PTC) of $\$ $3.00/kg for the first ten years of operation. The economic analysis calculated the net present value (NPV) for cases involving steady-state synfuel production for comparison with the NPV for a business-as-usual case in which NPP continues to sell only electric power to the grid. A synfuel production “Reference Case” was considered in addition to sensitivity cases in which the plant capacity, electricity price, and synthetic fuel product prices were perturbed. The synfuel production Reference Case considered a scenario in which the electrolysis and synfuel plants utilized a combined electrical load of 1000 megawatt electrical (MWe) from the LWR with the balance of the LWR power output being sold to the electric grid. The economic analysis suggests that the synfuel production Reference Case evaluated in this analysis would lead to considerable economic potential for near-term deployment of a nuclear-based synfuel production plant. Specifically, the economic analysis suggests that the deployment of a 1000 megawatt (MW) nuclear-powered synfuel plant could result in a NPV increase of approximately $\$ $1.7 billion for a case with no clean synfuel price premium relative to conventional petroleum fuels when accounting for the additional revenues from the 2022 IRA clean hydrogen PTCs of $\$ $3/kg. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of perturbation of selected model input parameters on the NPV for the synfuel production Reference Case. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the plant capacity has the largest impact on the differential NPV, with a smaller synfuel production capacity resulting in a decrease in revenue when a larger fraction of the power from the NPP is sold to the grid and a smaller fraction of the power is used to produce synthetic fuel products. The synfuel product pricing has the next largest impact on the differential NPV, with lower synfuel prices resulting in decreased NPV from decreased synfuel sales revenue while higher synfuel prices result in increased NPV from increased synfuel sales revenue. Electricity pricing has a smaller effect on the NPV than the fuel sales price since, in the Reference Case, most of the energy from the NPP is used for synfuel production and a smaller amount of the system revenues are associated with electrical power sales. However, the electricity price sensitivity does indicate that the Synfuel Integrated Energy System (IES) would have a greater NPV than the business-as-usual case (e.g., grid power sales only) when electricity market prices are low, suggesting that synfuel production could provide a strategy for decreasing the economic risks to NPPs posed by a loss of revenues attributed to falling electricity market prices.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Approximation Framework of Embodied Energy of Safety: Insights and Analysis

Transportation safety, as a critical component of an efficient and reliable transportation system, has been extensively studied with respect to societal economic impacts by transportation agencies and policy officials. However, the embodied energy impact of safety, other than induced congestion, is lacking in studies. This research proposes an energy equivalence of safety (EES) framework to provide a holistic view of the long-term energy and fuel consequences of motor vehicle crashes, incorporating both induced congestion and impacts from lost human productivity resulting from injury and fatal accidents and the energy content resulting from all consequences and activities from a crash. The method utilizes a ratio of gross domestic product (GDP) to national energy consumed in a framework that bridges the gap between safety and energy, leveraging extensive studies of the economic impact of motor vehicle crashes. The energy costs per fatal, injury, and property-damage-only (PDO) crashes in gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE) in 2017 were found to be 200,259, 4442, and 439, respectively, which are significantly greater than impacts from induced congestion alone. The results from the motor vehicle crash data show a decreasing trend of EES per crash type from 2010 and 2017, due primarily in part to a decreasing ratio of total energy consumed to GDP over those years. In addition to the temporal analysis, we conducted a spatial analysis addressing national-, state-, and local-level EES comparisons by using the proposed framework, illustrating its applicability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Facets of hydro power and future trends in a Nordic Context

Hydropower technologies bolster high penetration of variable renewable energies (VREs) in the net zero emissions scenarios. Nevertheless, there are various challenges to meeting the ambitious goal, such as stability, reliability, resiliency, security, lack of reactive power, voltage support and inertia, large-scale storage deployment and coordination, interconnectedness, demand-side response, higher thermal cycles with increased start/stops, and inadequate Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for system-wise VRE integration and profitability. This survey conducts a bottom-up analysis to unveil the opportunities to utilize hydropower facilities and disentangle the nested problem for intertwining design features, control algorithms, operation, optimization approaches, incentives, services, and market mechanisms using a three-pillar framework perspective: grid owners, power producers, and machine designers. The survey identified emerging trends in real-time and capacity markets, flexible power systems, and enhanced grid capabilities, including advanced voltage support and updated grid codes. These developments present significant opportunities for hydropower, such as achieving super-flexibility through hybridization, expanded reactive power capabilities, and advanced operational modes like a synchronous condenser and power adequator functionalities. These opportunities require novel design philosophies — including new winding, stator, and rotor configurations, optimized ventilation, and active cooling systems — to enhance performance under stressed grid and climate conditions. Finally, integrating climate and energy models for multi-basin optimization with finer spatial and temporal granularity enhances the planning accuracy for water management of hydropower while addressing environmental challenges. The review delivers helpful prospective suggestions and tools that would serve researchers, power engineers, and stakeholders in making decisions about hydropower technologies and services in 2050 and beyond.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Dynamic Analysis of Reynolds Number Effects on Trailing Edge Transonic Vortex Shedding and Its Impact on Turbine Blade Aerodynamic Performance

In this work, we will discuss observations from images acquired from a time-resolved, high-speed self-aligned focusing Schlieren campaign that was performed at the CW-22 facility at NASA Glenn Research Center to understand the dynamic behavior of thick trailing-edge high-pressure turbine blades simulating a ceramic matrix composite (CMC) construction at high inlet turbulence conditions. For the CMC-9 blade, which has a trailing edge thickness of 9% of the axial chord, we identified a regime where an excessive total pressure loss (loss anomaly) is observed only for a narrow range of Reynolds numbers at a fixed exit Mach number of 0.74. The loss anomaly is qualitatively explained by our images, which were taken at 10 distinct blade Reynolds numbers spanning a factor of 6. The images show a significant increase in energy related to the oscillations due to transonic vortex shedding at the Reynolds numbers related to the high loss conditions. This increased energy leads to the formation of strong acoustic waves that turn into shock waves at the highest loss conditions. From our observations stemming from Spectral POD analysis of the high-speed images, we see the acoustic waves produced by the trailing edge vortex shedding exist in all conditions tested; but the shedding frequency has a very slight trend upwards as the Reynolds number is increased, varying about 6% in the range tested. Considering this variation of shedding frequency as a function of Reynolds number, which is well-established for other bluff-body flows, we stipulate there may be a potential feedback mechanism involving an acoustic information transfer path across neighboring blades that may explain why only a narrow range of Reynolds numbers displays strong, shock-forming vortex shedding. We consider a few feedback paths and examine the timing based on the mean flow field from a high-resolution LES simulation. It appears that all feedback mechanisms are viable, presenting an integer number of delay cycles with respect to disturbances generated at the trailing edge. Most noteworthy, however, is the acoustic/shock-boundary layer interaction mechanism at the blade geometric throat. Based on our analysis, this mechanism likely plays an important role in realistic, curved turbine blade passages.

Aerodynamics↗

Catalytic resonance theory for parametric uncertainty of programmable catalysis

Microkinetic models are useful tools for screening catalytic materials; however, errors in their input parameters can lead to significant uncertainty in model predictions of catalyst performance. Here, in this work, we investigate the impact of linear scaling and Brønsted-Evans-Polanyi relation parametric uncertainty on microkinetic predictions of programmable-catalyst performance. Two case studies are considered: a generic A-to-B prototype reaction and the oxygen evolution reaction (OER). The results show that error-unaware models can accurately predict trends and, for the prototype reaction, values of optimal waveform parameters. The specific model parameters driving output uncertainty are identified via variance-based global sensitivity analysis. However, predictions of dynamic rate enhancement can decrease when uncertainty is propagated into the models. In both cases, we identify operating conditions where the programmable catalyst achieves a rate enhancement of at least one order of magnitude despite parametric uncertainty in the model, supporting programmable catalysis as a viable strategy for exceeding the Sabatier limit.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Anthropogenic Aerosols Contribute to the Recent Decline in Precipitation Over the U.S. Southwest

Abstract The winter‐spring precipitation over the Southwestern United States (SWUS) decreased since 1980. It is frequently attributed to Pacific internal decadal variability, but recent studies found anthropogenic aerosols (AA) can also induce a transition to a negative Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) phase. We revisit the attribution of SWUS drying by quantifying the contributions of anthropogenically forced decadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Applying a low‐frequency component analysis to observations, Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) all‐forcings and single‐forcing large ensembles, we find up to 42% of the observed precipitation trend to be related to the AA‐induced negative PDV‐like pattern, which is driven by the emission shift from the Western to the Eastern Hemisphere. In CESM2, other radiative forcings counteract the influence of AA, but it remains unclear whether the model correctly simulates this balance. This implies that the near‐future trajectories of these forcings, in particular Asian aerosols, are important for projections of SWUS precipitation.

Geology↗

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure From Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. Here, an experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (n e ) and electron temperature (T e ) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (I p ), toroidal magnetic field (B Φ ), neutral beam heating power (P NBI ) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A TCN-Based Hybrid Forecasting Framework for Hours-Ahead Utility-Scale PV Forecasting

This paper presents a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) based hybrid PV forecasting framework for enhancing hours-ahead utility-scale PV forecasting. The hybrid framework consists of two forecasting models: a physics-based trend forecasting (TF) model and a data-driven fluctuation forecasting (FF) model. Three TCNs are integrated in the framework for: i) blending the inputs from different Numerical Weather Prediction sources for the TF model to achieve superior performance on forecasting hourly PV profiles, ii) capturing spatial-temporal correlations between detector sites and the target site in the FF model to achieve more accurate forecast of intra- hour PV power drops, and iii) reconciling TF and FF results to obtain coherent hours-ahead PV forecast with both hourly trends and intra-hour fluctuations well preserved. To automatically identify the most contributive neighboring sites for forming a detector network, a scenario-based correlation analysis method is developed, which significantly improves the capability of the FF model on capturing large power fluctuations caused by cloud movements. Here, the framework is developed, tested, and validated using actual PV data collected from 95 PV farms in North Carolina. Simulation results show that the performance of 6 hours ahead PV power forecasting is improved by 20% - 30% compared with state-of-the-art methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Iron XANES measurements of carbonates and phyllosilicates in CM chondrites: A record of redox conditions during aqueous alteration

Multiple generations of calcite and dolomite precipitated in CM chondrites during ice melting events that led to episodes of liquid water. Models and laboratory analysis have suggested a long-term transition from oxidizing to reducing conditions during aqueous alteration on the CM parent body. We found that synchrotron X-ray absorption near edge spectroscopy (XANES) can detect relative differences in the oxidation state of trace iron within these carbonates. In CM chondrites, previous work interpreted Mn abundance in calcite as an indicator of relatively early or late formation, and dolomite is understood to form relatively late. In the CM1 chondrite Meteorite Hills 01070, XANES maps reveal that Mn-poor calcite contains more oxidized iron relative to Mn-rich calcite. While these measurements of carbonates support increasing iron reduction with progressive aqueous alteration in MET 01070, comparison among different CM chondrites suggests a complex picture of redox evolution. In addition to carbonates, we performed XANES measurements of the phyllosilicate-rich matrix of Allan Hills 83,100. Pre-edge centroid analysis indicates that this CM1/2 has an oxidation state similar to typical CM2 chondrites. While additional measurements are warranted to confirm the full span of redox trends in CM carbonates, our data do not support a correlation between redox state and petrologic type.

Bailey, Elizabeth [Univ. of California, Santa Cruz↗

2020 Review Panel Workshop on Energy Intensity Indicators: Summary Findings and Meeting Notes

On January 28-29, 2020, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), in coordination with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), sponsored an expert workshop focused on energy intensity indicators. The intent of the workshop was to support a comprehensive review of the EERE Energy Intensity Indicators (EII), a national system of indicators used to track changes in the energy intensity of economic sectors. One goal of the workshop was to gather input from a panel of experts who have experience and knowledge related to the EII methodological approach and key data sources used to calculate indicators for each of the end-use sectors of the economy—transportation, residential, commercial, industrial, and electricity. The current EERE EII methodology is documented in a 2017 PNNL report, A Comprehensive System of Energy Intensity Indicators for the U.S.: Methods, Data and Key Trends, which is available online. The workshop also included a presentation by Dr. Beng Ang, who discussed the Log Mean Divisia index (LMDI) approach to decomposition analysis, which was followed by a discussion concerning the methodological approaches that could be applied to future EII efforts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Solar-to-Grid: Trends in System Impacts, Reliability, and Market Value in the United States with Data Through 2020

With continued deployment of solar across the United States, assessing the interactions of solar with the power system is an increasingly important complement to studies tracking the cost and performance of solar plants. This project focuses on the historical contribution to reliability, trends in market value, and impacts on the bulk power system of solar deployed in the U.S. through the end of 2020. The scope of this analysis includes the seven organized U.S. wholesale power markets and is based on historical hourly solar generation profiles for each individual plant larger than 1 MW or county-level aggregate profiles for smaller solar. In addition, we present a limited set of results for ten utilities that are outside of the independent system operator (ISO)/regional transmission organization (RTO) markets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States (2023 Edition) [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and paired PV+storage systems in the United States. For the purpose of this report, distributed solar includes residential systems, roof-mounted non-residential systems, and ground-mounted systems up to 5 MW-AC. Ground-mounted systems larger than 5 MW-AC are covered in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Utility-Scale Solar. The latest edition of the report is based on 3.2 million systems installed through year-end 2022, representing more than 80% of systems installed to date. The report describes and discusses key trends related to: -Project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and non-residential customer segmentation ownership -Median installed-price trends, both nationally and by state -Variability in pricing according to system size, state, installer, equipment type, and other factors, relying on both descriptive and econometric analysis The report also includes a multi-variate regression analysis to estimate the effects of key pricing drivers for residential systems installed in 2022.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Development of an All-Aqueous Thermally Regenerative Redox Flow Battery to Support Fossil Fuel Assets

Low-temperature thermal energy, a largely untapped resource, holds significant promise for large-scale electrical power generation globally. Various stationary sources, including industrial entities and thermal power plants, emit considerable low-temperature heat that currently remains unutilized. This energy is often overlooked because its low temperature renders it unsuitable for efficient power generation using conventional methods. However, current research is exploring diverse technologies capable of converting low-temperature heat into grid-scale power, aiming to enhance grid efficiency, further decarbonization initiatives, and facilitate a shift toward more decentralized power systems. One such innovative technology is the thermally regenerative battery (TRB), noted for its high power and energy densities compared to similar technologies, positioning it as a potential game-changer in power generation. TRBs integrate two scalable and well-established unit operations: a redox flow battery and a distillation column. This integration suggests that once an effective TRB chemistry is established, the pathway to commercialization could be expedited. The copper-based thermally regenerative ammonia battery (Cu aq -TRAB) stands out as the first TRB that circumvents electrodeposition/dissolution reactions, stabilizing Cu(I) and Cu(II) within the electrolyte and maintaining stability of all electroactive species in an aqueous phase. This stabilization has led to improvements in coulombic efficiency, open circuit potential, and copper solubility, thereby enhancing power density, energy density, and overall energy efficiency. Preliminary tests were conducted to determine the effects of various electrolyte species on the performance metrics of the battery, both theoretically and experimentally. These tests revealed that the solubility of copper in the Cu aq -TRAB electrolyte was constrained by the Cu(I)-NH 3 complex. Adjusting the background electrolyte to 5 M NH4Br and the ligand concentration to 4 M NH 3 enabled the copper concentration to reach a maximum of 0.6 M. This modification led to an estimated theoretical maximum energy density of 9.5 Wh L -1 for the Cu aq -TRAB. Additionally, full cell testing indicated a tradeoff between peak power and energy density with varying copper and ammonia concentrations. Increasing the applied current density during discharge linearly raised the average power output, with a minimal reduction in energy density due to a balance between higher ohmic overpotential and reduced time for undesirable ammonia crossover. Furthermore, a comprehensive numerical sensitivity analysis of the complete Cu aq -TRAB system was performed. This analysis aimed to assess how the battery and the distillation column responded to changes in system input parameters, providing insights into optimal research directions for enhancing system performance. The analysis revealed that at room temperature, battery power was significantly more sensitive to ohmic losses than to mass transfer, with reaction rates having minimal impact. This trend continued even at higher temperatures. Also, the thermal energy required for ammonia separation was studied, showing that increased temperatures generally reduced energy requirements, except in low-pressure scenarios above 65 °C. An investigation into membrane performance in the Cu aq -TRAB was undertaken, given the significant impact of ammonia transport control and ohmic losses on system performance. Various membranes were evaluated to identify key performance metrics. Among the tested membranes, Selemion CMVN exhibited the highest performance, with a peak power density of 84 mW cm -2 and average values of 26 ± 6.8 mW cm -2 for power density and 2.9 Wh L -1 for energy density at an applied current density of 50 mA cm -2 . An economic assessment indicated a levelized cost of storage at $410 per MWh under optimal conditions, highlighting the commercial potential of the Cu aq -TRAB when utilizing cost-effective, readily available materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Cell wall response of field grown Populus to Septoria infection

Due to its ability to spread quickly and result in tree mortality, Sphaerulina musiva (Septoria) is one of the most severe diseases impacting Populus . Previous studies have identified that Septoria infection induces differential expression of phenylpropanoid biosynthesis genes. However, more extensive characterization of changes to lignin in response to Septoria infection is lacking. To study the changes of lignin due to Septoria infection, four field grown, naturally variant Populus trichocarpa exhibiting visible signs of Septoria infection were sampled at health, infected, and reaction zone regions for cell wall characterization. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), and acid hydrolysis were applied to identify changes to the cell wall, and especially lignin. FTIR and subsequent principal component analysis revealed that infected and reaction zone regions were similar and could be distinguished from the non-infected (healthy) region. NMR results indicated the general trend that infected region had a higher syringyl:guaiacyl ratio and lower p -hydroxybenzoate content than the healthy regions from the same genotype. Finally, Klason lignin content in the infected and/or reaction zone regions was shown to be higher than healthy region, which is consistent with previous observations of periderm development and metabolite profiling. These results provide insights on the response of Populus wood characteristics to Septoria infection, especially between healthy and infected region within the same genotype.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure from Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. An experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (ne) and electron temperature (Te) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (Ip), toroidal magnetic field (Bφ), neutral beam heating power (PNBI) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Mineral exploration potential of ERTS-1 data

The author has identified the following significant results. Preliminary analysis of a mosaic composing eight individual ERTS frames (1:1,000,000) extending well beyond the test site has revealed a number of tectonic structural trends that are controlled by regional lineations. So far most of the regional lineations fall into three general directions: east by northeast, northwest, and north-south. From preliminary examination, it appears that the older Precambrian basement predominates in the NE-bearing structural trends, whereas the predominate NW trend is most likely associated with the Texas Structural Zone, and the north-south trend being the Utah-Arizona belt and/or part of the southern Basin and Range Province. One major lineation, made up of many parallel lineations, is noticeable just north of Lake Pleasant which extends for approximately 100 miles in a northern direction out of the target area. This feature corresponds to a Precambrian schist formation shown on the USGS geologic map of Arizona.

Brewer, W. A.↗