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At least 1,567 records · Page 87
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Application of Design of Experiments and Surrogate Modeling within the NASA Advanced Concepts Office, Earth-to-Orbit Design Process

Decisions made during early conceptual design have a large impact upon the expected life-cycle cost (LCC) of a new program. It is widely accepted that up to 80% of such cost is committed during these early design phases. Therefore, to help minimize LCC, decisions made during conceptual design must be based upon as much information as possible. To aid in the decision making for new launch vehicle programs, the Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides rapid turnaround pre-phase A and phase A concept definition studies. The ACO team utilizes a proven set of tools to provide customers with a full vehicle mass breakdown to tertiary subsystems, preliminary structural sizing based upon worst-case flight loads, and trajectory optimization to quantify integrated vehicle performance for a given mission. Although the team provides rapid turnaround for single vehicle concepts, the scope of the trade space can be limited due to analyst availability and the manpower requirements for manual execution of the analysis tools. In order to enable exploration of a broader design space, the ACO team has implemented an advanced design methods (ADM) based approach. This approach applies the concepts of design of experiments (DOE) and surrogate modeling to more exhaustively explore the trade space and provide the customer with additional design information to inform decision making. This paper will first discuss the automation of the ACO tool set, which represents a majority of the development effort. In order to fit a surrogate model within tolerable error bounds a number of DOE cases are needed. This number will scale with the number of variable parameters desired and the complexity of the system's response to those variables. For all but the smallest design spaces, the number of cases required cannot be produced within an acceptable timeframe using a manual process. Therefore, automation of the tools was a key enabler for the successful application of an ADM approach to an ACO design study. Following the overview of the tool set automation, an example problem will be given to illustrate the implementation of the ADM approach. The example problem will first cover the inclusion of ground rules and assumptions (GR&A) for a study. The GR&A are very important to the study as they determine the constraints within which a trade study can be conducted. These trades must ultimately reconcile with the customer's desired output and any anticipated "what if" questions. The example problem will then illustrate the setup and execution of a DOE through the automated ACO tools. This process is accomplished more efficiently in this work by splitting the tools into two separate environments. The first environment encompasses the structural optimization and mass estimation tools, while the second is focused on trajectory optimization. Surrogate models are fit to the outputs of each environment and are "integrated" via connection of the surrogate equations. Throughout this process, checks are implemented to compare the output of the surrogates to the output of manually run cases to ensure that the error of the final surrogates is at an acceptable level. The conclusion of the example problem demonstrates the utility of the ADM based approach. Using surrogate models gives the ACO team the ability to visualize vehicle sensitivities to various design parameters and identify regions of interest within the design space. The ADM approach can thus be used to inform concept down selection and isolate promising vehicle configurations to be explored in more detail through the manual design process. In addition it provides the customer with an almost instantaneous turnaround on any ''what if" questions that may arise within the bounds of the surrogate model. This approach ultimately expands the ability of the ACO team to provide its customer with broad and rapid turnaround trade studies for launch vehicle conceptual design. The ability to identify a selection of designs which can meet the customer requirements will help ensure lower LCC of launch vehicle designs originating from ACO.

Zwack, Mathew R.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Application of Design of Experiments and Surrogate Modeling within the NASA Advanced Concepts Office, Earth-to-Orbit Design Process

Decisions made during early conceptual design have a large impact upon the expected life-cycle cost (LCC) of a new program. It is widely accepted that up to 80% of such cost is committed during these early design phases.1 Therefore, to help minimize LCC, decisions made during conceptual design must be based upon as much information as possible. To aid in the decision making for new launch vehicle programs, the Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides rapid turnaround pre-phase A and phase A concept definition studies. The ACO team utilizes a proven set of tools to provide customers with a full vehicle mass breakdown to tertiary subsystems, preliminary structural sizing based upon worst-case flight loads, and trajectory optimization to quantify integrated vehicle performance for a given mission.2 Although the team provides rapid turnaround for single vehicle concepts, the scope of the trade space can be limited due to analyst availability and the manpower requirements for manual execution of the analysis tools. In order to enable exploration of a broader design space, the ACO team has implemented an Advanced Design Methods (ADM) based approach. This approach applies the concepts of Design of Experiments (DOE) and surrogate modeling to more exhaustively explore the trade space and provide the customer with additional design information to inform decision making. This paper will first discuss the automation of the ACO tool set, which represents a majority of the development e ort. In order to t a surrogate model within tolerable error bounds a number of DOE cases are needed. This number will scale with the number of variable parameters desired and the complexity of the system's response to those variables. For all but the smallest design spaces, the number of cases required cannot be produced within an acceptable timeframe using a manual process. Therefore, automation of the tools was a key enabler for the successful application of an ADM approach to an ACO design study. Following the overview of the tool set automation, an example problem will be given to illustrate the implementation of the ADM approach. The example problem will first cover the inclusion of Ground Rules and Assumptions (GR&A) for a study. The GR&A are very important to the study as they determine the constraints within which a trade study can be conducted. These trades must ultimately reconcile with the customer's desired output and any anticipated \what if" questions. The example problem will then illustrate the setup and execution of a DOE through the automated ACO tools. This process is accomplished more efficiently in this work by splitting the tools into two separate environments. The first environment encompasses the structural optimization and mass estimation tools, while the second is focused on trajectory optimization. Surrogate models are t to the outputs of each environment and are integrated via connection of the surrogate equations. Throughout this process, checks are implemented to compare the output of the surrogates to the output of manually run cases to ensure that the error of the final surrogates is at an acceptable level. The conclusion of the example problem demonstrates the utility of the ADM based approach. Using surrogate models gives the ACO team the ability to visualize vehicle sensitivities to various design parameters and identify regions of interest within the design space. The ADM approach can thus be used to inform concept down selection and isolate promising vehicle configurations to be explored in more detail through the manual design process. In addition it provides the customer with an almost instantaneous turnaround on any \what if" questions that may arise within the bounds of the surrogate model. This approach ultimately expands the ability of the ACO team to provide its customer with broad and rapid turnaround trade studies for launch vehicle conceptual design. The ability to identify a selection of designs which can meet the customer requirements will have the potential to lower LCC of launch vehicle designs originating from ACO.

Zwack, Mathew R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Rollable Corrugated Tubular Booms

A promising candidate for a new class of deployable composite boom is the COrrugated ROllable TUbular Boom (COROTUB), which is to be employed on future large space structures by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The COROTUB’s two corrugated thin shells form a closed section, which yields high bending and torsional stiffness, allowing for high dimensional stability. The corrugation geometry that dictates the boom cross-section shape was completely defined by closed-form analytical equations given a set of key design parameters. Parametric studies of two geometric variables were used to evaluate which parameters most influence the cross-section’s area moment of inertia and torsional constant. The number of corrugations, flattened height of the boom, and concave and convex corrugation radii were varied to study the complete boom design space. Deeper corrugations increased the local buckling (crimpling) loads of the thin-shell boom but reduced the area moment of inertia and therefore the global buckling load of the beam-column member, and thus a fine balance was sought. Finite element analyses of pure bending and compression load cases for short, 1.22-m-long fully-deployed booms ofeither the same size (flattened height) or similar inertia properties, were first carried out to efficiently study this design trade-off in detail.A second computational study evaluated the boom transition shape and the structural response of a 6-m-long partially-deployed boom, where the effects of partially bracing the root of the boom were also assessed. It was found that bracing length could greatly affect the strength and stiffness of this boom.Bracing type (as in the discrete number of clamps at the root) had no effect on stiffness, but particularly impacted strength for loading cases and boundary conditions that promoted the onset of local web buckling at the root. The corrugated designs were also found to improve, by as much as 20%, the boom bending and axial strength and boom transition length from flat to deployed when compared to a state-of-the-art boom alternative of the same size, for short bracing distances, such as those that would be required by small satellite applications. In addition, they showed a comparable structural response for longer bracing supports.

Booms↗
DOE OSTI2025

Flower‐Type Organized Trade‐Wind Cumulus: A Multi‐Day Lagrangian Large Eddy Simulation Intercomparison Study

Shallow cumulus cloud fields in subtropical marine trade wind environments, particularly over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, show distinct organizational patterns. Among these, Flower‐type clouds are characterized by expansive stratiform cloud patches surrounded by regions of scattered convection. The objectives of this study were (a) to construct a case study of a time period during the EUREC 4 A/ATOMIC field campaign when Flower‐type organization was observed, (b) to evaluate the fidelity of a multi‐model ensemble of large eddy simulations of that case, and (c) to analyze the interaction between cloud and precipitation processes and mesoscale organization in the simulations. The simulations follow a quasi‐Lagrangian trajectory, allowing mesoscale features to develop over time in a domain that follows the boundary‐layer airmass. The results show a broad agreement in simulated thermodynamic properties across different LES codes, with Flower‐type cloud patches appearing within hours of each other. The consensus among models is consistent with observations made during the EUREC 4 A/ATOMIC field campaign on the specific day of interest. The cloud structure reveals three distinct peaks in the joint probability densities of cloud base and cloud top height, with the dominant peak at any given time influenced by the stage of cloud organization. The simulated cloud system evolution reveals consistent occurrence of maxima in liquid water path and rain rate before Flower reaches its maximum length scale. Targeted sensitivity tests reveal a weak relationship between Cloud Droplet Number concentration and the extent/degree/type of organization.

EUREC4A↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hearing impairment and tinnitus among older construction workers employed at DOE facilities

Few studies have defined the risk of hearing impairment and tinnitus after retirement. This report measures hearing impairment and tinnitus prevalence among older construction trades workers. The study cohort included 21,340 participants in a national medical screening program. Audiometric hearing impairment was classified according to the Global Burden of Disease Study. Tinnitus was determined by self-report. An internal subcohort of nonconstruction trades workers served as a reference group. Stratified analyses and multivariate analyses were used to measure the prevalence of hearing impairment and tinnitus by age, sex, and job category. Prevalence of any hearing impairment was 55.2% (males, 57.7%; females, 26.8%) and increased rapidly with age. Construction trades workers were 40% more likely to have hearing impairment than the reference group. The overall prevalence of tinnitus was 46.52% and followed patterns similar to hearing impairment. Workers with hearing impairment were more likely to also have tinnitus, but tinnitus was frequently reported in the absence of measured hearing impairment. Hearing impairment and tinnitus prevalence were much higher in this study than in previous research. A significant reason for the difference is that BTMed follows participants after they have retired. To draw conclusions about the risk for work-related chronic diseases and disorders it is important to monitor workers through their lifetimes. Also, tinnitus by itself should be given greater significance. We report the findings reinforce the need to promote noise reduction and hearing conservation in construction.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Importance of Trade Dependencies for Agricultural Inputs: A Case Study of Finland

Approximately 80% of the world's population lives in countries that are dependent on food imports to sustain an adequate food supply. Besides these food imports, further dependencies also arise due to the requirements for agricultural inputs, including energy, fertilisers, feed and agricultural machinery. While the trade of agricultural inputs is relatively well represented in economic analysis, the quantification is often in terms of monetary values, and thus the assessments of the actual input quantities are very limited. In this paper, we develop a framework for analysis of the traded input quantities at the country-level and demonstrate its utility through an in-depth analysis of Finland's dependency on agricultural inputs. Further, we assess the importance of these inputs for domestic food production from a resilience perspective. We find that Finland, a country with relatively high food self-sufficiency but also a great dependency on imported agricultural inputs, experienced an increase in its dependency over the period 1996-2016. In case of trading partners, the story is more mixed: while trading partners for soybeans increased, those decreased in case of electricity while no significant change was observed in other commodities. In Finland, the rapeseed dependency on imports (ratio of net imports and consumption) grew from around 0% to almost 50% between the years 1987-2013. Changes for electricity remained substantially smaller, with dependency only slightly growing during the study period. Crude oil and soybean supplies are totally dependent on imports as neither is produced in Finland. Interestingly, the highest dependencies for agricultural inputs were on different countries than that for foodstuff imports. Thus, when identifying and assessing approaches to increase resilience to trade-related shocks, it is essential to understand both foodstuff and agricultural input dependencies within the global food system.

trade dependencies↗
NASA NTRS2014

Atmospheric Entry Studies for Uranus

To better understand the technology requirements for a Uranus atmospheric entry probe, an internal NASA study was conducted. The main objectives for this study were: (1) to determine the entry trade space through parametric studies; and (2) to identify entry technologies that could be used to enable a mission that would meet at least the Tier 1 science objectives described in the Decadal Survey. The paper describes two different approaches to the planet: 1) direct ballistic entry 2) aerocapture followed by direct entry of probe. For direct ballistic entry the trajectory analyses were performed for a range of entry flight path angles and ballistic coefficients. The larger size probes was also considered in an attempt to enable Tier 2 science objectives. For aerocapture analysis a single case was studied to demonstrate feasibility and benefits with this option. A summary of all of the above analyses, including factors that constrain allowable entry trajectories, is presented

Atmospheric entry↗
NASA NTRS2005

Manned Lunar Missions: An Exercise in Propulsion Trades and Sensitivities

A recent study performed for the In-Space Propulsion Technology Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the effects of using different propellant types on the different stages required to perform a manned lunar mission. The original study included investigations into propellant type, propellant storage technology options and sensitivities to specific impulse variations for a lunar orbit rendezvous mission. The initial mission characteristics were based on previous work led by Langley Research Center. Outlined in this paper are the results of that study and the work that followed. A lunar direct return architecture was added to the analysis. Since both architectures required assembly of the various propulsive stages in low Earth orbit and multiple launches to deliver those stages, investigations of launch sequence and scheduling sensitivities were also included. Results show that lunar direct return architectures require more mass to complete missions when compared to lunar orbit rendezvous missions. Within the given architectures, trends in the results tended to be very similar with the architectures indicating very little sensitivity to launch sequence and specific impulse variations and indicating more sensitivity to the propellant choice made for each stage and the time between launches. Even though this study investigates a small subset of the possible lunar architecture trade space, it does begin to outline some of the issues that must be investigated and the characteristics of the mission and the mission elements that are of most importance to a full architecture assessment.

Percy, Thomas K.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design and Comparison of Lunar Sample Return Options

Returning lunar samples to earth is a high priority for NASA in order to better understand Lunar Geology, Lunar formation, and potential resource utilization. Core samples of frozen volatiles from permanently shadowed regions are sought after, but require intensive cryogenic cooling to preserve. Returning samples to Earth using the Orion capsule is restrictive for moderate amounts of mass/volume and thus alternate means of transport are investigated in this paper. The trade-space of potential options includes varying: sample mass amount, sample containment conditions, transfer path from Lunar surface to Earth surface, and various vehicle system trades. An integrated solver is applied with parametric estimators and known system heuristics to effectively estimate size, mass, and power of various subsystems. Modeled subsystems include sample containment, EDL technologies(heat shield, parachute, recovery), power, thermal, avionics, structures, and propulsive systems. Transfer path options include various trajectory options, transfer methods, staging points, and vehicle staging options. A Design of Experiments was conducted to explore the tradespace, to identify sensitivities, and to identify promising designs. Results are detailed for various stakeholder objectives including total mass, sample mass, science return, architecture impacts, and operational flexibility.

Lunar outpost↗
DOE OSTI2023

Near-Optimal Distributed Linear-Quadratic Regulator for Networked Systems

This paper studies the trade-off between the degree of decentralization and the performance of a distributed controller in a linear-quadratic control setting. We study a system of interconnected agents over a graph and a distributed controller, called k-distributed control, which lets the agents make control decisions based on the state information within distance k on the underlying graph. This controller can tune its degree of decentralization using the parameter k and thus allows a characterization of the relationship between decentralization and performance. We show that under mild assumptions, including stabilizability, detectability, and a subexponentially growing graph condition, the performance difference between k-distributed control and centralized optimal control becomes exponentially small in k. Finally, this result reveals that distributed control can achieve near-optimal performance with a moderate degree of decentralization, and thus it is an effective controller architecture for large-scale networked systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrating Variable Renewable Energy in Power Systems: Fundamentals for the Greater Mekong Subregion

This presentation is an introduction to foundational concepts for integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) into bulk power systems, with a focus on the Greater Mekong Subregion. It contains fundamentals on challenges and solutions for VRE integration (e.g., wind and solar PV), as well as deep dives on energy storage, floating solar PV (FPV), and cross-border energy trade (CBET). Case studies are contained throughout.

Cambodia↗
NASA NTRS2006

Science Overview

This report presents an overview of the latest scientific consensus understanding of the effect of aviation emissions on the atmosphere for both local air quality and climate change in order to provide a contextual framework for raising future questions to help assess the environmental benefits of technology goals. The questions may take the form of what are the environmental benefits that would result if goals are achieved, what are the consequences for other aviation pollutants, and whether tools exist to evaluate the trade-off. In addition to this documents, presentations will be made at the meeting to illustrate current developing views on these subjects. To facilitate studies on trade-offs among environmental impacts from aviation, one must start with scientific investigations that quantify the impacts. A second step is to select representative metrics with policy relevance so that diverse impacts can be put on the same common scale. The IPCC Special Report on Aviation (IPCC, 1999) serves as an excellent example of the first step. The report was produced by IPCC's Working Group 1, whose mandate is to provide the assessment of the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change. An example of the second step is Witt et al. (2005), a study commissioned by the Environment DG of the European Commission. Within the context of CAEP, step 1 is aligned with the responsibilities of the Research Focal Points, while step 2 is more related to activities of FESG. These steps are likely to be iterative as proposed policy options will raise new science questions, and new science will expand or limit policy options. Past experiences show that clearly defined policy-related scientific needs will help focus the scientific community to marshal their intellects to provide the needed answers.

Bruning, Claus↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microphysics Dominates Sub‐Cloud Rain Evaporation in Trade Cumuli Over Barbados

This study investigates the microphysical and thermodynamic influences on North Atlantic trade-cumulus rain evaporation in the sub-cloud layer over Barbados from January to November 2020. Using radar observations and a 1-D model, the results reveal that microphysical properties, namely geometric mean diameter (D g ) and raindrop concentration, primarily control evaporation processes under conditions of limited thermodynamic variability. Thermodynamic factors like cloud base height and relative humidity exert a smaller influence due to their narrow observed ranges. Small D g leads to rapid increases in rain evaporation fraction (REF), as small drops evaporate completely, while larger D g yields slower, more gradual REF changes. Frequent weak-rain cases reduce the mean evaporation flux, whereas infrequent intense-rain events substantially enhance it. These findings highlight the pivotal role of microphysical variability in shaping sub-cloud evaporation in this trade cumulus regime, while thermodynamic effects may be more important in other environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

ExoVista: A Suite of Planetary System Models for Exoplanet Studies

Studies of future space- and ground-based exoplanet surveys often rely on models of planetary systems to simulate instrument response, estimate scientific yields, perform trade analyses, and study efficient observation strategies. Until now, no planetary system models contained all of the basic physics necessary to enable study with all of the major exoplanet detection methods. Here we introduce a suite of such models generated by a new tool, exoVista. The exoVista tool quickly generates thousands of models of quasi-self-consistent planetary systems around known nearby stars at scattered light wavelengths and efficiently records the position, velocity, spectrum, and physical parameters of all bodies as functions of time. The modeled planetary systems can be used to simulate surveys using the direct imaging, transit, astrometric, and radial velocity techniques, as well as the overlap of these different methods.

Christopher C Stark↗
NASA NTRS2019

Innovative Approaches to Using the International Space Station as a Mars Transit Analog

Human research on the International Space Station (ISS) crew has made significant advances in understanding of the effects of physiology on human health in space missions. However, ISS has not been as suitable for research on other hazards of human spaceflight such as isolation and communications delay. NASA recently completed a special assessment of whether modifications could be made to operations or facilities so that ISS could be used more effectively as an analog to simulate long-duration crew missions beyond low earth orbit. A cross-disciplinary team met to identify concept of operations, trade spaces, challenges, and opportunities to making ISS more operationally relevant as a Mars transit mission analog, and the results and implementation plans are summarized in this manuscript. In addition to the use case of 12-month missions (already in planning by the NASA ISS Program to bound expected Mars transit durations), three new use cases where ISS could provide valuable high-fidelity experience were identified. (1) Testing of operations procedures and medical care could be enhanced by demonstrating crew handling a simulated medical event in microgravity, autonomously, and with significant communications delay. (2) Isolation and confinement effects of deep space transit could be studied on ISS to validate current habitable volume requirements for Mars transit as well as provide context for evaluating the results of the extensive ground-based simulations in HERA and NEK. A trade study of possible operational and hardware changes that would make ISS applicable to these use cases was completed. (3) Surface operations after the physiological deconditioning of a long transit could be conducted to validate crew ability to perform critical ground tasks after 6-month Mars transit and aid in conceptual design of Mars surface element architectures. Each of the case studies includes a trade space between operational impacts on nominal ISS activities and degree of fidelity. A phased approach to implementation means that several "quick start" activities can be done in 2019-2020 at the same time as planning continues for more complex exploration analog options beginning as early as 2022. The team determined that many of these quick-start tasks could be done with available assets, entirely independent of other exploration system development timelines (such as Orion, Space Launch System). The consideration of the full suite of human spaceflight capabilities in the lunar vicinity can also be included as each step in human exploration serves as a simulation opportunity for some aspect of subsequent missions. Further discussions of options with the international community are critical for considering the benefits as well as impacts of simulation activities on ISS, as well as to better formulate future mission architectures.

Robinson, Julie A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Computational budget optimization for Bayesian parameter estimation in heavy-ion collisions

Abstract Bayesian parameter estimation provides a systematic approach to compare heavy-ion collision models with measurements, leading to constraints on the properties of nuclear matter with proper accounting of experimental and theoretical uncertainties. Aside from statistical and systematic model uncertainties, interpolation uncertainties can also play a role in Bayesian inference, if the model’s predictions can only be calculated at a limited set of model parameters. This uncertainty originates from using an emulator to interpolate the model’s prediction across a continuous space of parameters. In this work, we study the trade-offs between the emulator (interpolation) and statistical uncertainties. We perform the analysis using spatial eccentricities from the T R ENTo model of initial conditions for nuclear collisions. Given a fixed computational budget, we study the optimal compromise between the number of parameter samples and the number of collisions simulated per parameter sample. For the observables and parameters used in the present study, we find that the best constraints are achieved when the number of parameter samples is slightly smaller than the number of collisions simulated per parameter sample.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗