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At least 1,567 records · Page 87

Full-sky Models of Galactic Microwave Emission and Polarization at Subarcminute Scales for the Python Sky Model

Polarized foreground emission from the Galaxy is one of the biggest challenges facing current and upcoming cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization experiments. We develop new models of polarized Galactic dust and synchrotron emission at CMB frequencies that draw on the latest observational constraints; that employ the “polarization fraction tensor” framework to couple intensity and polarization in a physically motivated way; and that allow for stochastic realizations of small-scale structure at subarcminute angular scales currently unconstrained by full-sky data. We implement these models into the publicly available Python Sky Model (PySM) software and additionally provide PySM interfaces to select models of dust and CO emission from the literature. We characterize the behavior of each model by quantitatively comparing it to observational constraints in both maps and power spectra, demonstrating an overall improvement over previous PySM models. Finally, we synthesize models of the various Galactic foreground components into a coherent suite of three plausible microwave skies that span a range of astrophysical complexity allowed by current data. Author contributions to this paper can be found at the end of this work.

Group, The Pan-Experiment Galactic Science↗

Role of interaction between hydraulic and natural fractures on production

One of the main purposes of hydraulic fracturing in unconventional resources such as shale is to improve the connectivity between existing natural fractures and the production well. Since the inherent permeability of shale is extremely low, this newly formed fracture connectivity provides faster paths for the hydrocarbon stored in preexisting natural fractures. In this study, we performed numerical simulations of the free gas production at large scale fractured reservoir with different pre-existing natural fracture network intensities and with variable hydraulic fracture sizes and staging. We explored production characteristics as a function of the properties of both, natural fractures (intensity) and hydraulic fractures (size and staging). Our hypothesis is that once maximum fracture connectivity is achieved, additional stimulation does not increase production significantly. In this numerical study we use an advanced modeling tool to study fractures connectivity, Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) approach, which can represent fracture networks similar to those observed on individual reservoir sites. In our model the horizontal production well and vertical hydraulic fractures were deterministically defined and surrounded by stochastically generated natural fracture networks. The performed numerical experiments show how fracture connectivity depends on hydraulic fracture settings in fractured reservoir with different preexisting fracture densities. We numerically showed that cumulative free gas production is not affected significantly by hydraulic fractures size (25 m–150 m) or spacing (15 m–45 m) for dense natural fracture networks. However, the hydraulic fracture size is important in reservoirs with sparse natural fractures, although spacing (number of stages) does not play a significant role.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Data-Driven Transition Path Analysis Yields a Statistical Understanding of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in an Idealized Model

Abstract Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting) and characterizing the statistics of events of a given severity (the risk climatology). Each event has a different duration and spatial structure, making it hard to define an objective “average event.” We argue here that transition path theory (TPT), a stochastic process framework, is an appropriate tool for the task. We demonstrate TPT’s capacities on a wave–mean flow model of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) developed by Holton and Mass, which is idealized enough for transparent TPT analysis but complex enough to demonstrate computational scalability. Whereas a recent article (Finkel et al. 2021) studied near-term SSW predictability, the present article uses TPT to link predictability to long-term SSW frequency. This requires not only forecasting forward in time from an initial condition, but also backward in time to assess the probability of the initial conditions themselves. TPT enables one to condition the dynamics on the regime transition occurring, and thus visualize its physical drivers with a vector field called the reactive current . The reactive current shows that before an SSW, dissipation and stochastic forcing drive a slow decay of vortex strength at lower altitudes. The response of upper-level winds is late and sudden, occurring only after the transition is almost complete from a probabilistic point of view. This case study demonstrates that TPT quantities, visualized in a space of physically meaningful variables, can help one understand the dynamics of regime transitions.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

An Iterative Response-Surface-Based Approach for Chance-Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow Considering Dependent Uncertainty

A modern power system is characterized by a stochastic variation of the loads and an increasing penetration of renewable energy generation, which results in large uncertainties in its states. These uncertainties bring formidable challenges to the power system planning and operation process. To address these challenges, we propose a cost-effective, iterative response-surface-based approach for the chance-constrained AC optimal power-flow problem that aims to ensure the secure operation of the power systems considering dependent uncertainties. Starting from a stochastic-sampling-based framework, we first utilize the copula theory to simulate the dependence among multivariate uncertain inputs. Then, to reduce the prohibitive computational time required in the traditional Monte-Carlo method, we propose, instead of using the original complicated power-system model, to rely on a polynomial-chaos-based response surface. This response surface allows us to efficiently evaluate the time-consuming power-system model at arbitrary distributed sampled values with a negligible computational cost. This further enables us to efficiently conduct an online stochastic testing for the system states that not only screens out the statistical active constraints, but also assists in a better design of the tightened bounds without using any Gaussian or symmetric assumption. Finally, an iterative procedure is executed to fine-tune the optimal solution that better satisfies a predefined probability. The simulations conducted in multiple test systems demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Fault diagnosis and fault tolerant control for T-S fuzzy stochastic distribution systems subject to sensor and actuator faults

The problem of fault diagnosis (FD) and fault tolerant control (FTC) for a class of Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy stochastic distribution control (SDC) systems subject to sensor and actuator faults is discussed in this paper. First, fuzzy logic models are used to approximate the output probability density function (PDF). Next, an adaptive augmented state/fault diagnosis observer is proposed to estimate the system state, sensor and the actuator faults simultaneously. New expected weights based on the sensor fault estimation information and a PI-type fuzzy feedback fault tolerant (FT) controller are designed to compensate the effect of sensor fault and actuator fault simultaneously. When the sensor fault occurs, the expected objective is redesigned to compensate the sensor fault. Meanwhile, the PI controller can compensate the effect of actuator fault, and the output PDF of the system can still track the desired PDF after the fault occurs. Finally, an example of quality distribution control in chemical reaction process is given to confirm the effectiveness of the algorithm.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Learning the Task Management Space of an Aircraft Approach Model

Validating models of airspace operations is a particular challenge. These models are often aimed at finding and exploring safety violations, and aim to be accurate representations of real-world behavior. However, the rules governing the behavior are quite complex: nonlinear physics, operational modes, human behavior, and stochastic environmental concerns all determine the responses of the system. In this paper, we present a study on aircraft runway approaches as modeled in Georgia Tech's Work Models that Compute (WMC) simulation. We use a new learner, Genetic-Active Learning for Search-Based Software Engineering (GALE) to discover the Pareto frontiers defined by cognitive structures. These cognitive structures organize the prioritization and assignment of tasks of each pilot during approaches. We discuss the benefits of our approach, and also discuss future work necessary to enable uncertainty quantification.

Validation↗

A fluctuating hydrodynamics model for nanoscale surfactant-laden interfaces

A multispecies diffuse interface model is formulated in a fluctuating hydrodynamics framework for the purpose of simulating surfactant interfaces at the nanoscale. The model generalizes previous work to ternary mixtures, employing a Cahn-Hilliard free energy density combined with incompressible, isothermal fluctuating hydrodynamics where dissipative fluxes include both deterministic and stochastic terms. The intermolecular parameters in the free energy are chosen such that one species acts as a partially miscible surfactant. From Laplace pressure measurements, we show that in this model the surface tension decreases linearly with surfactant concentration, leading to Marangoni convection for interfaces with concentration gradients. In the capillary wave spectrum for interfaces with and without surfactant, we find that for the former, the spectrum deviates significantly from classical capillary wave theory, presumably due to Gibbs elasticity. In non-equilibrium simulations of the Rayleigh-Plateau instability, deterministic simulations showed that the surfactant delays pinching of a fluid cylinder into droplets. However, stochastic simulations indicate that thermal fluctuations disrupt the surfactant's stabilizing effect. Similarly, the spreading of a patch of surfactant, driven by Marangoni convection, was found to be partially suppressed by thermal fluctuations.

Capillary waves↗

Simulation-Based Model for Facility-Scale Eagle Presence Mapping

This talk presents the recent progress in building a predictive movement model for predicting conflict between soaring raptors and wind turbines. In particular, it details the recently developed numerical tool called Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator for simulating updraft-subsidized paths for soaring raptors through variety of wind conditions and the associated directional intent.

agent-based model↗

Quenching through the QCD chiral phase transition

We present a detailed numerical and analytical study of the out-of-equilibrium dynamics of Model G, the dynamical universality class relevant to the chiral phase transition. We perform numerical 3D stochastic (Langevin) simulations of the 𝑂⁡(4) critical point for large lattices in the chiral limit. We quench the system from the high-temperature unbroken phase to the broken phase and study the nonequilibrium dynamics of pion fields. Strikingly, the nonequilibrium evolution of the two-point functions exhibits a regime of growth, a parametrically large enhancement, and a subsequent slow relaxation to equilibrium. We analyze our numerical results using dynamic critical scaling and mean-field theory. The growth of the two-point functions is determined by the nonlinear dynamics of an ideal non-Abelian superfluid, which is a limit of Model G that reflects the broken chiral symmetry. We also relate the nonequilibrium two-point functions to a long-lived parametric enhancement of soft pion yields relative to thermal equilibrium following a quench.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Hybrid state-space self-tuning control using dual-rate sampling

This paper presents a hybrid state-space self-tuning control scheme using dual-rate sampling for suboptimal digital adaptive control of linear time-invariant continuous-time multivariable stochastic systems with unknown parameters. An equivalent fast-rate discrete-time state-space innovation model (with estimated states) of the continuous-time system is constructed by using the estimated system parameters and Kalman gain. To utilize the existing optimal regional-pole assignment method developed in the continuous-time domain, the constructed fast-rate discrete-time model is converted into an equivalent continuous-time model for the development of a state-feedback optimal control law with pole placement in a specific region. The developed analog optimal control law is then converted into an equivalent pseudo-slow-rate digital control law via the proposed digital redesign technique, which can be realized via slow-rate digital electronics. The proposed method enables the development of a digitally implementable advanced control algorithm for digital adaptive control of continuous-time multivariable stochastic systems which may be unstable and/or have nonminimum phase.

Shieh, Leang S.↗

A Holistic DSMC Transport Database for Re-Entry and Ablation Modeling

Hybrid simulation frameworks combining Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) are frequently employed to efficiently perform high-fidelity solutions of environments containing combined continuum/rarified flow. The use of DSMC, a stochastic, particle-based method, is necessary for high-Knudsen flow where continuum-based assumptions governing CFD break down. However, the DSMC methodology is generally very computationally inefficient to model the continuum regime. In a CFD/DSMC hybrid approach, obtaining an accurate, high-fidelity solution hinges on the consistent treatment of transport properties and the used thermo-chemical models employed within the two solvers. In principle, in regions where CFD and DSMC are both employed, the same gas mixture under the same conditions should have the same properties, regardless of simulation type. Observed differences should be due to non-equilibrium processes, rather than differences in physical models. While the transport models governing CFD and DSMC simulations are starkly different, they can effectively be linked via their use of reduced Chapman-Enskog collision integrals. In CFD, these integrals are typically stored as fitted polynomial expressions and used to directly compute gas transport properties via mixing rules or the full Chapman-Enskog formulation. In DSMC, they can be used to derive the collision parameters needed for the phenomenological collision cross-section models that govern particle interactions, via a Nelder-Mead optimization scheme. The goal of this work is to provide a unified DSMC transport database encompassing the vast majority of known gas species encountered during atmospheric entry, on Earth or any other Solar body. This goal is largely possible due to recently performed ab-initio quantum chemistry calculations. Combined with other high-fidelity literature sources, the planned database will consist of collision integral data for over 200 neutral and ionized species and over 17000 binary collisions. From these collision integrals, Nelder-Mead optimization is used to compute Variable Soft Sphere (VSS) collision model parameters for DSMC, fitted from 300 K to 20000 K. Initial comparisons of transport properties of relevant equilibrium gas mixtures show great agreement between CFD and DSMC-derived results. The completed database will be able to be readily applied to model binary collisions of any gas mixture containing the included species over the specified temperature range, making it a valuable tool for future planetary probe modeling efforts. An example is shown below. Equilibrium mixture transport properties for a 19-species Titan atmospheric model [4] are computed using both fitted VSS parameters and the original CFD collision integral values. Deviations in computed properties between the two approaches is less than 5% for the entire temperature range.

M R Gosma↗

The active CGCG 077-102 NED02 galaxy within the Abell 2063 galaxy cluster

Context.Within the framework of investigating the link between the central super massive black holes in the cores of galaxies and the galaxies themselves, we detected a variable X-ray source in the center of CGCG 077-102 NED02, which is a member of the CGCG 077-102 galaxy pair within the Abell 2063 cluster of galaxies. Aims.Our goal is to combine X-ray and optical data to demonstrate that this object harbors an active super massive black hole in its core, and to relate this to the dynamical status of the galaxy pair within the Abell 2063 cluster. Methods.We usedChandraandXMM-Newtonarchival data to derive the X-ray spectral shape and variability. We also obtained optical spectroscopy to detect the expected emission lines that are typically found in active galactic nuclei. Finally, we used public ZTF imaging data to investigate the optical variability. Results.There is no evidence of multiple X-ray sources or extended components within CGCG 077-102 NED02. Single X-ray spectral models fit the source well. We detect significant, nonrandom inter-observation 0.5–10 keV X-ray flux variabilities, for observations separated by ∼4 days for short-term variations and by up to ∼700 days for long-term variations. Optical spectroscopy points toward a passive galaxy for CGCG 077-102 NED01 and a Seyfert for CGCG 077-102 NED02. The classification of CGCG 077-102 NED02 is also consistent with its X-ray luminosity of over 10 42 erg s −1 . We do not detect short-term variability in the optical ZTF light curves. However, we find a significant long-term stochastic variability in theg-band that can be well described by the damped random walk model with a best-fit characteristic damping timescale ofτ DRW = 30 −12 +28 days. Finally, the CGCG 077-102 galaxy pair is deeply embedded within the Abell 2063 potential, with a long enough history within this massive structure to have been affected by the influence of this cluster for a long time. Conclusions.Our observations point toward a moderately massive black hole in the center of CGCG 077-102 NED02 of ∼10 6 M ⊙ . As compared to another similar pair in the literature, CGCG 077-102 NED02 is not heavily obscured, perhaps because of the surrounding intracluster medium ram-pressure stripping.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Energy sector portfolio analysis with uncertainty

Governments are dealing with the challenge of how to efficiently invest in research and development portfolios related to energy technologies. Research and development investment decisions in the energy space are especially difficult due to numerous risks and uncertainties, and due to the complexity of energy's interactions with the broad economy. Historically, much of the U.S. Department of Energy's in-depth research and development analyses focused on assessing the impact of a research and development activity in isolation from other available opportunities and did not substantially consider risk and uncertainty. Endeavoring to combine integrated energy-economy modeling with uncertainty analysis and technology-specific research and development activities, the U.S. Department of Energy commissioned the development of the Stochastic Energy Deployment System to support and improve public energy research and development decision-making. The Stochastic Energy Deployment System draws from expert-elicited probability distributions for research and development-driven improvements in technology cost and performance, and it uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the likelihood of outcomes within a system dynamics energy-economy model. The framework estimates the uncertain benefits and costs of various research and development portfolios and provides insight into the probability of meeting national technology goals, while accounting for interactions with the larger economy and for interactions among research and development investments spanning many energy sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Gravitational waves from supercooled phase transitions in conformal Majoron models of neutrino mass

We study supercooled first-order phase transitions above the QCD scale in a wide class of conformal Majoron-like U(1)′ models that explain the totality of active neutrino oscillation data and produce a detectable stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) at LIGO, LISA and ET. We place constraints on the U(1)′ breaking scale and gauge coupling using current LIGO-Virgo-Kagra data. We find that strong supercooling can be ruled out in large regions of parameter space if a SGWB is not detected by these experiments. A null signal at LIGO and ET will disfavor a type-I seesaw scale above 10 14 GeV, while a positive signal is a signature of heavy right-handed neutrinos. On the other hand, LISA will be sensitive to seesaw scales as low as a TeV, and could detect a SGWB even if the right-handed neutrinos are decoupled.

early universe particle physics↗

Stochastic gravitational wave background from global cosmic strings

Global cosmic strings are generically predicted in particle physics beyond the Standard Model, e.g., a post-inflationary global U(1) symmetry breaking which may associate with axion-like dark matter. Here, we demonstrate that although subdominant to Goldstone emission, gravitational waves (GWs) radiated from global strings can be observable with current/future GW detectors. The frequency spectrum of such GWs is also shown to be a powerful tool to probe the Hubble expansion rate of the Universe at times prior to the Big Bang nucleosynthesis where the standard cosmology has yet to be tested.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Stress-controlled fatigue of HfNbTaTiZr high-entropy alloy and associated deformation and fracture mechanisms

The stress-controlled fatigue tests are carried out at a stress ratio of 0.1 and a frequency of 10 Hz, and span both low-cycle and high-cycle regimes by varying the applied stress amplitudes. The high-cycle fatigue regime gives a fatigue strength of 497 MPa and a fatigue ratio of 0.44. At equivalent conditions, the alloy's fatigue strength is greater than all other high-entropy alloys (HEAs) with reported high-cycle fatigue data, dilute body-centered cubic alloys, and many structural alloys such as steels, titanium alloys, and aluminum alloys. Through in-depth analyses of crack-propagation trajectories, fracture-surface morphologies and deformation plasticity by means of various microstructural analysis techniques and theoretical frameworks, the alloy's remarkable fatigue resistance is attributed to delayed crack initiation in the high-cycle regime, which is achieved by retarding the formation of localized persistent slip bands, and its good resistance to crack propagation in the low-cycle regime, which is accomplished by intrinsic toughening backed up by extrinsic toughening. Additionally, the stochastic nature of the fatigue data is neatly captured with a 2-parameter Weibull model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Thermodynamics of order and randomness in dopant distributions inferred from atomically resolved imaging

Abstract Exploration of structure-property relationships as a function of dopant concentration is commonly based on mean field theories for solid solutions. However, such theories that work well for semiconductors tend to fail in materials with strong correlations, either in electronic behavior or chemical segregation. In these cases, the details of atomic arrangements are generally not explored and analyzed. The knowledge of the generative physics and chemistry of the material can obviate this problem, since defect configuration libraries as stochastic representation of atomic level structures can be generated, or parameters of mesoscopic thermodynamic models can be derived. To obtain such information for improved predictions, we use data from atomically resolved microscopic images that visualize complex structural correlations within the system and translate them into statistical mechanical models of structure formation. Given the significant uncertainties about the microscopic aspects of the material’s processing history along with the limited number of available images, we combine model optimization techniques with the principles of statistical hypothesis testing. We demonstrate the approach on data from a series of atomically-resolved scanning transmission electron microscopy images of Mo x Re 1- x S 2 at varying ratios of Mo/Re stoichiometries, for which we propose an effective interaction model that is then used to generate atomic configurations and make testable predictions at a range of concentrations and formation temperatures.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗