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At least 1,567 records · Page 87

Accuracy assessment in the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment

The Accuracy Assessment System (AAS) of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) was responsible for determining the accuracy and reliability of LACIE estimates of wheat production, area, and yield, made at regular intervals throughout the crop season, and for investigating the various LACIE error sources, quantifying these errors, and relating them to their causes. Some results of using the AAS during the three years of LACIE are reviewed. As the program culminated, AAS was able not only to meet the goal of obtaining accurate statistical estimates of sampling and classification accuracy, but also the goal of evaluating component labeling errors. Furthermore, the ground-truth data processing matured from collecting data for one crop (small grains) to collecting, quality-checking, and archiving data for all crops in a LACIE small segment.

Houston, A. G.↗

Timing Calibration and Windowing Technique Comparison for Lightning Mapping Arrays

Abstract Since their introduction 22 years ago, lightning mapping arrays (LMA) have played a central role in the investigation of lightning physics. Even in recent years with the proliferation of digital interferometers and the introduction of the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) radio telescope, LMAs still play an important role in lightning science. LMA networks use a simple windowing technique that records the highest pulse in either 80 μs or 10 μs fixed windows in order to apply a time‐of‐arrival location technique. In this work, we develop an LMA‐emulator that uses lightning data recorded by LOFAR to simulate an LMA, and we use it to test three new styles of pulse windowing. We show that they produce very similar results as the more traditional LMA windowing, implying that LMA lightning mapping results are relatively independent of windowing technique. In addition, each LMA station has its GPS‐conditioned clock. While the timing accuracy of GPS receivers has improved significantly over the years, they still significantly limit the timing measurements of the LMA. Recently, new time‐of‐arrival techniques have been introduced that can be used to self‐calibrate systematic offsets between different receiving stations. Applying this calibration technique to a set of data with 32 ns uncertainty, observed by the Colorado LMA, improves the timing uncertainty to 19 ns. This technique is not limited to LMAs and could be used to help calibrate future multi‐station lightning interferometers.

Hare, Brian M.↗

Data Imbalance, Uncertainty Quantification, and Transfer Learning in Data‐Driven Parameterizations: Lessons From the Emulation of Gravity Wave Momentum Transport in WACCM

Abstract Neural networks (NNs) are increasingly used for data‐driven subgrid‐scale parameterizations in weather and climate models. While NNs are powerful tools for learning complex non‐linear relationships from data, there are several challenges in using them for parameterizations. Three of these challenges are (a) data imbalance related to learning rare, often large‐amplitude, samples; (b) uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predictions to provide an accuracy indicator; and (c) generalization to other climates, for example, those with different radiative forcings. Here, we examine the performance of methods for addressing these challenges using NN‐based emulators of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) physics‐based gravity wave (GW) parameterizations as a test case. WACCM has complex, state‐of‐the‐art parameterizations for orography‐, convection‐, and front‐driven GWs. Convection‐ and orography‐driven GWs have significant data imbalance due to the absence of convection or orography in most grid points. We address data imbalance using resampling and/or weighted loss functions, enabling the successful emulation of parameterizations for all three sources. We demonstrate that three UQ methods (Bayesian NNs, variational auto‐encoders, and dropouts) provide ensemble spreads that correspond to accuracy during testing, offering criteria for identifying when an NN gives inaccurate predictions. Finally, we show that the accuracy of these NNs decreases for a warmer climate (4 × CO 2 ). However, their performance is significantly improved by applying transfer learning, for example, re‐training only one layer using ∼1% new data from the warmer climate. The findings of this study offer insights for developing reliable and generalizable data‐driven parameterizations for various processes, including (but not limited to) GWs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Streambed Grain Size, Uncertainty, and Hydrobiogeochemical Parameters Using Machine Learning Model YOLO

Abstract Streambed grain sizes control river hydro‐biogeochemical (HBGC) processes and functions. However, measuring their quantities, distributions, and uncertainties is challenging due to the diversity and heterogeneity of natural streams. This work presents a photo‐driven, artificial intelligence (AI)‐enabled, and theory‐based workflow for extracting the quantities, distributions, and uncertainties of streambed grain sizes from photos. Specifically, we first trained You Only Look Once, an object detection AI, using 11,977 grain labels from 36 photos collected from nine different stream environments. We demonstrated its accuracy with a coefficient of determination of 0.98, a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.98, and a mean absolute relative error of 6.65% in predicting the median grain size of 20 ground‐truth photos representing nine typical stream environments. The AI is then used to extract the grain size distributions and determine their characteristic grain sizes, including the 10th, 50th, 60th, and 84th percentiles, for 1,999 photos taken at 66 sites within a watershed in the Northwest US. The results indicate that the 10th, median, 60th, and 84th percentiles of the grain sizes follow log‐normal distributions, with most likely values of 2.49, 6.62, 7.68, and 10.78 cm, respectively. The average uncertainties associated with these values are 9.70%, 7.33%, 9.27%, and 11.11%, respectively. These data allow for the computation of the quantities, distributions, and uncertainties of streambed HBGC parameters, including Manning's coefficient, Darcy‐Weisbach friction factor, top layer interstitial velocity magnitude, and nitrate uptake velocity. Additionally, major sources of uncertainty in grain sizes and their impact on HBGC parameters are examined.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Coupling Remote Sensing With a Process Model for the Simulation of Rangeland Carbon Dynamics

Rangelands provide significant environmental benefits through many ecosystem services, which may include soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, quantifying SOC stocks and monitoring carbon (C) fluxes in rangelands are challenging due to the considerable spatial and temporal variability tied to rangeland C dynamics as well as limited data availability. We developed the Rangeland Carbon Tracking and Management (RCTM) system to track long-term changes in SOC and ecosystem C fluxes by leveraging remote sensing inputs and environmental variable data sets with algorithms representing terrestrial C-cycle processes. Bayesian calibration was conducted using quality-controlled C flux data sets obtained from 61 Ameriflux and NEON flux tower sites from Western and Midwestern US rangelands to parameterize the model according to dominant vegetation classes (perennial and/or annual grass, grass-shrub mixture, and grass-tree mixture). The resulting RCTM system produced higher model accuracy for estimating annual cumulative gross primary productivity (GPP) (R 2 > 0.6, RMSE <390 g C m -2 ) relative to net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE) (R 2 > 0.4, RMSE <180 g C m -2 ). Model performance in estimating rangeland C fluxes varied by season and vegetation type. The RCTM captured the spatial variability of SOC stocks with R 2 = 0.6 when validated against SOC measurements across 13 NEON sites. Model simulations indicated slightly enhanced SOC stocks for the flux tower sites during the past decade, which is mainly driven by an increase in precipitation. Future efforts to refine the RCTM system will benefit from long-term network-based monitoring of vegetation biomass, C fluxes, and SOC stocks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advancing simulations of coupled electron and phonon nonequilibrium dynamics using adaptive and multirate time integration

Electronic structure calculations in the time domain provide a deeper understanding of nonequilibrium dynamics in materials. The real-time Boltzmann equation (rt-BTE), used in conjunction with accurate interactions computed from first principles, has enabled reliable predictions of coupled electron and lattice dynamics. However, the timescales and system sizes accessible with this approach are still limited, with two main challenges being the different timescales of electron and phonon interactions and the cost of computing collision integrals. As a result, only a few examples of these calculations exist, mainly for two-dimensional (2D) materials. Here we leverage adaptive and multirate time integration methods to achieve a major step forward in solving the coupled rt-BTEs for electrons and phonons. Relative to conventional (non-adaptive) time-stepping, our approach achieves a 10x speedup for a target accuracy, or greater accuracy by 3–6 orders of magnitude for the same computational cost, enabling efficient calculations in both 2D and bulk materials. This efficiency is showcased by computing the coupled electron and lattice dynamics in graphene up to ~100 ps, as well as modeling ultrafast lattice dynamics and thermal diffuse scattering maps in bulk materials (silicon and gallium arsenide). In addition to improved efficiency, our adaptive method can resolve the characteristic rates of different physical processes, thus naturally bridging different timescales. This enables simulations of longer timescales and provides a framework for modeling multiscale dynamics of coupled degrees of freedom in matter. Our work opens new opportunities for quantitative studies of nonequilibrium physics in materials, including driven lattice dynamics with phonons coupled to electrons, spin, and other degrees of freedom.

Yao, Jia [California Institute of Technology (CalT↗

Laplacian-level meta-generalized gradient approximation for solid and liquid metals

In this work, we derive and motivate a Laplacian-level, orbital-free meta-generalized-gradient approximation (LL-MGGA) for the exchange-correlation energy, targeting accurate ground-state properties of sp and sd metallic condensed matter, in which the density functional for the exchange-correlation energy is only weakly nonlocal due to perfect long-range screening. Our model for the orbital-free kinetic energy density restores the fourth-order gradient expansion for exchange to the r 2 SCAN meta-GGA [Furness et al., J. Phys. Chem. Lett. 11, 8208 (2020)], yielding a LL-MGGA we call OFR2. OFR2 matches the accuracy of SCAN for prediction of common lattice constants and improves the equilibrium properties of alkali metals, transition metals, and intermetallics that were degraded relative to the PBE GGA values by both SCAN and r 2 SCAN. We compare OFR2 to the r 2 SCAN -L LL-MGGA [Mejia-Rodriguez and Trickey, Phys. Rev. B 102, 121109(R) (2020)] and show that OFR2 tends to outperform r 2 SCAN -L for the equilibrium properties of solids, but r 2 SCAN -L much better describes the atomization energies of molecules than OFR2 does. For best accuracy in molecules and nonmetallic condensed matter, we continue to recommend SCAN and r 2 SCAN. Numerical performance is discussed in detail, and our paper provides an outlook to machine learning.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

End-to-End Pipeline for Trigger Detection on Hit and Track Graphs

There has been a surge of interest in applying deep learning in particle and nuclear physics to replace labor-intensive offline data analysis with automated online machine learning tasks. This paper details a novel AI-enabled triggering solution for physics experiments in Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider and future Electron-Ion Collider. The triggering system consists of a comprehensive end-to-end pipeline based on Graph Neural Networks that classifies trigger events versus background events, makes online decisions to retain signal data, and enables efficient data acquisition. Here, the triggering system first starts with the coordinates of pixel hits lit up by passing particles in the detector, applies three stages of event processing (hits clustering, track reconstruction, and trigger detection), and labels all processed events with the binary tag of trigger versus background events. By switching among different objective functions, we train the Graph Neural Networks in the pipeline to solve multiple tasks: the edge-level track reconstruction problem, the edge-level track adjacency matrix prediction, and the graph-level trigger detection problem. We propose a novel method to treat the events as track-graphs instead of hit-graphs. This method focuses on intertrack relations and is driven by underlying physics processing. As a result, it attains a solid performance (around 72% accuracy) for trigger detection and outperforms the baseline method using hit-graphs by 2% higher accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Satellite Embedding-Based Population Imputation for Areas with Missing Building Footprint Data: A Computer Vision-Based Approach

High-resolution population modeling is important for supporting effective decision-making across diverse sectors. LandScan Mosaic generates population estimates at the level of individual buildings and aggregates them to 3 arc-second grids, and this approach performs well in regions where building footprint data are comprehensive and reliable. However, large portions of the globe still suffer from incomplete, sparse, or entirely missing building stock datasets, creating a structural limitation for strictly building-based population models. To address this research gap, this study proposes a computer vision-based framework that employs Google Earth Engine satellite embeddings and UNet, which allows us to directly impute grid-level population estimates in building-data-deficient areas. Applied to Taiwan as a case study, the framework achieved strong predictive performance with R$^{2}$ of 0.89, RMSE of 18.70, and MAE of 8.41, outperforming traditional machine learning approaches. Notably, the proposed framework effectively addressed building false-positive errors inherent in Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) data, correctly identifying uninhabited areas that were erroneously classified as populated. The framework also offers significant advantages for global population mapping, particularly in terms of scalability and temporal consistency, thereby extending the coverage and accuracy of high-resolution population products in data-scarce regions worldwide. Urban planners, decision makers, and related stakeholders can obtain granular population distributions to support more accurate and targeted infrastructure investment, service delivery, resource allocation, and risk assessment decisions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Estimating Compressional Velocity and Bulk Density Logs in Marine Gas Hydrates Using Machine Learning

Compressional velocity (Vp) and bulk density (ρb) logs are essential for characterizing gas hydrates and near-seafloor sediments; however, it is sometimes difficult to acquire these logs due to poor borehole conditions, safety concerns, or cost-related issues. We present a machine learning approach to predict either compressional Vp or ρb logs with high accuracy and low error in near-seafloor sediments within water-saturated intervals, in intervals where hydrate fills fractures, and intervals where hydrate occupies the primary pore space. We use scientific-quality logging-while-drilling well logs, gamma ray, ρb, Vp, and resistivity to train the machine learning model to predict Vp or ρb logs. Of the six machine learning algorithms tested (multilinear regression, polynomial regression, polynomial regression with ridge regularization, K nearest neighbors, random forest, and multilayer perceptron), we find that the random forest and K nearest neighbors algorithms are best suited to predicting Vp and ρb logs based on coefficients of determination (R2) greater than 70% and mean absolute percentage errors less than 4%. Given the high accuracy and low error results for Vp and ρb prediction in both hydrate and water-saturated sediments, we argue that our model can be applied in most LWD wells to predict Vp or ρb logs in near-seafloor siliciclastic sediments on continental slopes irrespective of the presence or absence of gas hydrate.

Naim, Fawz↗

Solar experiment alignment system

Sensor system determines absolute alignment of optical axis of experiment package relative to solar vector and provides control information to permit pointing experiment anywhere on solar disc to absolute accuracy of the order of two arc seconds in center and five arc seconds on limb.

Fain, D. L.↗

Development of technology for modeling of a 1/8-scale dynamic model of the shuttle Solid Rocket Booster (SRB)

A NASTRAN analysis of the solid rocket booster (SRB) substructure of the space shuttle 1/8-scale structural dynamics model. The NASTRAN finite element modeling capability was first used to formulate a model of a cylinder 10 in. radius by a 200 in. length to investigate the accuracy and adequacy of the proposed grid point spacing. Results were compared with a shell analysis and demonstrated relatively accurate results for NASTRAN for the lower modes, which were of primary interest. A finite element model of the full SRB was then formed using CQUAD2 plate elements containing membrane and bending stiffness and CBAR offset bar elements to represent the longerons and frames. Three layers of three-dimensional CHEXAI elements were used to model the propellant. This model, consisting of 4000 degrees of freedom (DOF) initially, was reduced to 176 DOF using Guyan reduction. The model was then submitted for complex Eigenvalue analysis. After experiencing considerable difficulty with attempts to run the complete model, it was split into two substructres. These were run separately and combined into a single 116 degree of freedom A set which was successfully run. Results are reported.

Levy, A.↗

An experimental study of ultraviolet radiation behind incident normal shock waves in CO2 at Venusian entry speeds

Radiation intensity profiles behind incident normal shock waves in pure CO2 have been measured spectroscopically in the Langley Arc-Driven Shock Tube. These profiles, which were obtained for shock velocities between 9 and 13 km/sec and ambient densities corresponding to Venus altitudes between 100 and 80 km, were measured in the vacuum ultraviolet regime. Wavelengths of 127.7, 158.0, 177.5, and 195.0 nm were monitored simultaneously using a four-channel vacuum spectrograph equipped with sodium-salicylate-coated photomultipliers, thereby including the CO(4+) band system which is the most prominent radiator. Measured nonequilibrium overshoots are modeled to provide a means of estimating the effect of nonequilibrium radiation heating to the stagnation region of proposed aero-shells for Venusian entry. These results indicate a significant increase in radiative heating due to nonequilibrium effects. The measurements are believed to represent the most accurate data available on the effect of nonequilibrium radiative heat transfer for Venus entry. This accuracy is primarily due to improved spectrographic instrumentation, which is discussed in some detail regarding its application in related studies.

Nealy, J. E.↗

Improved dewpoint-probe calibration

Relatively-simple pressure-control apparatus calibrates dewpoint probes considerably faster than conventional methods, with no loss of accuracy. Technique requires only pressure measurement at each calibration point and single absolute-humidity measurement at beginning of run. Several probes can be calibrated simultaneously and points can be checked above room temperature.

Stephenson, J. G.↗

A comparison of head and manual control for a position-control pursuit tracking task

Head control was compared with manual control in a pursuit tracking task involving proportional controlled-element dynamics. An integrated control/display system was used to explore tracking effectiveness in horizontal and vertical axes tracked singly and concurrently. Compared with manual tracking, head tracking resulted in a 50 percent greater rms error score, lower pilot gain, greater high-frequency phase lag and greater low-frequency remnant. These differences were statistically significant, but differences between horizontal- and vertical-axis tracking and between 1- and 2-axis tracking were generally small and not highly significant. Manual tracking results were matched with the optimal control model using pilot-related parameters typical of those found in previous manual control studies. Head tracking performance was predicted with good accuracy using the manual tracking model plus a model for head/neck response dynamics obtained from the literature.

Levison, W. H.↗

Rapid approximate determination of nonlinear solutions - Application to aerodynamic flows and design/optimization problems

Stahara et al. (1978) have considered the use of an approximation technique which employs two or more nonlinear base solutions determined by the full computational method to predict entire families of related nonlinear solutions. The present investigation provides results for several applications of that method which demonstrate both its accuracy and its utility for engineering applications. Attention is given to the perturbation concept and methods, aspects of coordinate straining, aspects of analytical formulation, and an application to surface properties. In a discussion of the results, single and multiple parameter perturbations are considered along with a combination of the approximation method with optimization procedures. The results show that it is possible to combine in certain cases large savings in computational cost with improved optimization.

Stahara, S. S.↗

Atmospheric Backscatter Model Development for CO Sub 2 Wavelengths

The results of investigations into the problems of modeling atmospheric backscatter from aerosols, in the lowest 20 km of the atmosphere, at CO2 wavelengths are presented, along with a summary of the relevant aerosol characteristics and their variability, and a discussion of the measurement techniques and errors involved. The different methods of calculating the aerosol backscattering function, both from measured aerosol characteristics and from optical measurements made at other wavelengths, are discussed in detail, and limits are placed on the accuracy of these methods. The effects of changing atmospheric humidity and temperature on the backscatter are analyzed and related to the actual atmosphere. Finally, the results of modeling CO2 backscatter in the atmosphere are presented and the variation with height and geographic location discussed, and limits placed on the magnitude of the backscattering function. Conclusions regarding modeling techniques and modeled atmospheric backscatter values are presented in tabular form.

Deepak, A.↗