Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Performance Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,567 records · Page 87

Temperature Effects on Interdiffusion of Al and U-Mo under Irradiation

A high-energy Xe ion irradiation experiment was conducted to investigate the temperature dependence of interdiffusion in bilayer Al-UMo samples under irradiation. The amount of interdiffusion achieved at a fixed dose with the increase of temperature showed a clear transition at 175 degrees C (with an estimated error in the range of ± 10 degrees C) from temperature-independent to temperature-dependent behavior. The activation energy derived from the curve of interdiffusion quantity vs. irradiation temperature is 0.77 ± 0.16 eV. This information has been utilized to understand the temperature effect on the interdiffusion process that occurred at the interfaces of U-Mo particles and the Al matrix in U-Mo/Al dispersion fuels, whose magnitude significantly impacts the fuel's performance. Although this temperature effect was deemed important, it cannot be examined directly using in-pile irradiation data, as fuel temperatures cannot be measured in reactor irradiation and are highly correlated with fission rate and thermal conductivity evolution. To connect the knowledge accumulated from ion irradiation with in-pile irradiation data, simulation of a full-sized U-Mo/Al dispersion fuel plate irradiated in the FUTURE test in the BR2 reactor was performed with the Dispersion Analysis Research Tool (DART), a dispersion fuel performance code. DART is equipped with an interaction or interdiffusion layer (IL) growth correlation formulated to describe the temperature dependence of ion mixing results. The agreement between calculated and measured fuel meat constituent volume fractions and swelling data demonstrated that the temperature effect on in-pile Al-UMo interdiffusion is well captured with the correlation. In this case, the fitted activation energy is 0.70 eV. Considering the uncertainties associated with the ion irradiation data, the activation energy obtained from in-pile data fitting is in accord with that from ion irradiation results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Study of hydride reorientation and ductility of SRA ZIRLO and PRXA ZIRLO using ring compression testing (RCT)

Before dry storage, spent nuclear fuel is dried at high temperatures, which induces hydride dissolution. Radial hydride particles precipitate when cooled under a stress above a threshold stress. This process can severely degrade the ductility of cladding tubes. Zirconium alloys with different microstructures, such as grain boundary density, were quantified and studied to examine their effect on hydride reorientation. The ring compression loading mode creates a range of stress states depending on the location within the ring with respect to the applied load, producing various hydride morphologies that can be used to study the effects of microstructures on hydride reorientation. Finite element modeling was performed to calculate the hoop stress, which is the dominant stress, during hydride reorientation. These results were coupled with hydride morphology to determine the threshold stress for hydride reorientation, depending on the microstructure. In conclusion, the samples were then mechanically tested using ring compression to evaluate the ductility of zirconium alloys as a function of different hydride morphologies.

Hydride embrittlement↗

Bayesian tensorized neural networks with automatic rank selection

Tensor decomposition is an effective approach to compress over-parameterized neural networks and to enable their deployment on resource-constrained hardware platforms. However, directly applying tensor compression in the training process is a challenging task due to the difficulty of choosing a proper tensor rank. In order to address this challenge, this paper proposes a low-rank Bayesian tensorized neural network. Our Bayesian method performs automatic model compression via an adaptive tensor rank determination. We also present approaches for posterior density calculation and maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation for the end-to-end training of our tensorized neural network. Here, we provide experimental validation on a two-layer fully connected neural network, a 6-layer CNN and a 110-layer residual neural network where our work produces 7.4x to 137x more compact neural networks directly from the training while achieving high prediction accuracy.

Low-rank tensor↗

FIPD: The SFR metallic fuels irradiation & physics database

The DOE Advanced Reactor Technology (ART) program has supported efforts to recover and preserve metallic fuel data generated throughout the US sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) program. Those efforts have been focused on establishing databases of the experimental data that were mainly generated during the Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) program including data generated at Experimental Breeder Reactor-II (EBR-II), Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), and Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) reactors, as well as out of pile data. The data is essential for future licensing activities of metallic fuel based advanced fast reactors. This paper describes the development of the SFR Metallic Fuels Irradiation & Physics Database (FIPD) and covers the scientific knowledge available in the database. Furthermore, the architecture of the FIPD is described by showing the available reactor operation data, fabrication, and post-irradiation examination (PIE) data, and other documents. The applications of the fuel database are also discussed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The role of collisional energy transfer in the thermal and prompt dissociation of 1-methyl allyl

Collisional energy transfer plays a pivotal role in a-priori calculations of the pressure-dependent rate constants obtained from a master equation. However, accurate determinations of collisional energy transfer parameters are rare and so most kinetic studies rely on best-fits of these parameters to experimental measurements (if available) or estimates guided from literature studies. In this work, we have quantified the effect of the uncertainty in energy transfer parameters on the thermal and prompt dissociation kinetics of a resonance stabilized radical, 1-methyl allyl (1MA), of relevance to the combustion of 1- and 2-butene isomers. Simulations using literature kinetics models were performed to assess the impact of these uncertainties on flame propagation and speciation data in laminar flames of 1- and 2-butene. Analyses of the uncertainty propagated by the energy transfer parameters for 1MA dissociation to the flame simulations, in particular the laminar flame speed, indicate an intricate coupling between the kinetics of 1MA dissociation (chain propagation) and its reaction with H-atoms (chain-termination). Ab-initio based theoretical calculations were also performed to obtain pressure-dependent kinetics for the reaction of 1MA with H-atoms. Lastly, theoretically calculated energy transfer parameters were used to best characterize the kinetics and branching between the chain propagating 1MA dissociation and the chain-terminating reaction 1MA + H.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Oil price states and drivers: An analysis of the second-month spot-futures price differential

Oil remains a dominant component of global energy use, and its price, characterized by frequent changes and an ever-present potential for large swings, continues to be a focus of industry participants, policymakers and analysts attention. Here, this study examines the behavior of future spot oil prices using a continuous-time hidden Markov model (HMM) and daily price data spanning years 2007 to 2024. We identify six states in the second-month WTI spot-futures price differential and assess the roles of eleven futures price, quantity, financial market, and geopolitical/volatility variables in each state. The model yields several insights into the workings of the oil market and the relative roles of these drivers. We find support for several theoretical and empirical findings in the oil market literature, including the role of inventory, volatility/risk, and market responses to contango/backwardation in futures markets. A novel finding is that “normal contango” conditions represent a significant portion of next-day states in our in-sample data. Under the most volatile normal contango state, many of the oil market drivers differ markedly in coefficient signs and magnitudes from those in other states. The resulting model also performed well out-of-sample and would, in addition to understanding the impact of market drivers, be useful for short-term forecasting. Overall, the findings highlight the highly non-linear, regime-dependent interactions of the oil price and its drivers, emphasizing the importance of detailed information to market stakeholders.

Oladosu, Gbadebo A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory↗

Redox Defect Thermochemistry of FeAl 2 O 4 Hercynite in Water Splitting from First-Principles Methods

Solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) production is a promising route to produce fuels from sunlight via high-temperature water splitting. However, efficient and technologically viable implementations of this process only allow a narrow window of thermodynamic boundary conditions that can be used to cycle the system, thus limiting the design space for suitable metal oxide redox mediators. An oxygen defect redox mechanism can contribute a favorable reduction entropy to expand this window, and computational evaluation of materials with high oxygen defect entropies could play a pivotal role in guiding the discovery and design of suitable oxides. This study employs first-principles calculations to investigate the redox mediating defect mechanism of the STCH candidate material, hercynite (FeAl 2 O 4 ). We compare the results of total energy calculations from density functional theory (DFT) with beyond-DFT approaches, including hybrid functionals and the random phase approximation, which are among the most advanced methods currently feasible for supercell defect calculations. Using the predicted formation energies, we perform thermodynamic modeling of FeAl2O4 reduction and oxidation via free energy minimization that incorporates ideal gas, configurational, and vibrational entropy contributions evaluated within the quasi-harmonic approximation. Special attention is devoted to understanding interactions among co-existing defects, such as the association of pairs and complexes of O vacancies and cation antisite defects, and the effect of mutually compensating defect charges. Our results corroborate the notion that the details of defect interactions can be decisive for the viability of hydrogen production within the desirable STCH process window.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Free Energy and Flexibility Analysis of Autoinhibited Human BRAF

The RAF serine/threonine protein kinases function as direct effectors of RAS in the intracellular transmission of extracellular growth signals, and they are key targets for drug discovery, given the high incidence of oncogenic mutations in RAF and other components of this signaling pathway. In its inactive state, RAF is held in an autoinhibited conformation in the cytosol through a combination of intramolecular interactions and binding to a regulatory 14−3−3 protein dimer. Activation of RAF is initiated by its interaction with membrane-localized GTP-bound RAS, which induces conformational changes that release RAF from its autoinhibited state. However, the molecular mechanisms governing RAF activation remain incomplete, largely due to the challenges in experimentally capturing the intermediate conformational states in this process. To address this gap, we developed a comprehensive all-atom model of BRAF based on existing cryo-EM structures. Using this model, we performed extensive molecular dynamics simulations to evaluate the stability and free energy landscape of autoinhibited BRAF in solution. Our analysis reveals conformational flexibility within the autoinhibited complex, suggesting that this dynamic behavior may play a role in facilitating BRAF activation upon engagement with the membrane-bound RAS.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Phase Change-Driven Negative Activation Energies in Pd/Carbon-Based/Organic Getter Hydrogenation Reactions

In this study, the hydrogenation of 1,4-diphenylbutadiyne (DPB) blended with carbon-supported Pd (DPB–Pd/C) in the form of pellets was investigated by isothermal–isobaric experiments at 1333 Pa of H 2 and in the temperature range of 291–315 K. The extracted kinetics were then used in conjunction with a complementary constant rate of H 2 input experimentation to model the performance of a DPB-catalysis/support system as a function of temperature and H 2 partial pressure. First-principles density functional theory (DFT) calculations were also performed to shed light on the molecular level energetics of DPB and its intermediate states. A seemingly puzzling formation of alternate positive activation energy barrier (higher reaction rate with higher temperature) and negative activation energy barrier (higher reaction rate with lower temperature) zones during the hydrogenation process was discovered. However, this observed phenomenon can be logically explained in terms of the associated phase changes and H 2 transport in the material. This work provides a good illustration of a rarely encountered chemical process with a negative activation energy barrier.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NO 2 Interactions with MoO 3 and CuO at Atmospherically Relevant Pressures

NO x concentrations in some geographic regions are harmful to human health. Gas filters to trap NO x and other toxic chemicals contain metal oxides, including MoO 3 and CuO. These materials are also being investigated for NO x gas sensors. In a step to understand the fundamental adsorption mechanism in sensors and the effect on binding site availability in gas filters, ambient-pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (APXPS) was used to study the interaction of NO 2 with polycrystalline MoO 3 and CuO surfaces under pressures up to 0.01 Torr (14 parts per million volume (ppmv)). Density functional theory-based computational modeling was performed to reveal the mechanisms of NO 2 interactions with the MoO 3 (010) and CuO(111) surfaces to aid interpretation of the experimental results. With pressure dependence, NO 2 interacts with reduced Mo 5+ atoms generated by oxygen vacancies and abstracts hydrogen atoms from hydroxyl groups on MoO 3 without accumulating N-containing species on the surface; vacancy-induced electronic states in the band gap are also removed, hinting toward an increase in the resistivity of the material. N-containing species begin accumulating on the CuO surface at atmospherically relevant pressures of 140 ppbv. NO 2 only decomposes at oxygen vacancy sites of CuO. The nitrogen species leave the CuO surface upon evacuation, highlighting the importance of in situ surface characterization when studying gas sensing and adsorption mechanisms. Finally, these results imply that NO 2 removes hydroxyl and O vac binding sties on these materials when used in gas filtration and sensing applications. Furthermore, the results show the key role of O vac sites in the gas sensing mechanism of MoO 3 and highlight the potential of APXPS for further studies of gas sensors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Structure and Dynamics of CO 2 at the Air–Water Interface from Classical and Neural Network Potentials

The accurate description of the structure and dynamics of CO 2 at the instantaneous air–water interface, along with the effects of surface fluctuations on the CO 2 -transport processes, is essential for the development of negative emission technologies aimed at minimizing climate change. In this study, we performed molecular dynamics simulations of CO 2 at the air–water interface using neural network potentials (NNPs) trained on ab initio data generated through density-functional-theory-based molecular dynamics simulations. We compared these results with classical force fields to assess their performance in modeling interfacial CO 2 behavior. Our findings revealed that the asymmetric interactions, coupled with thermal surface fluctuations at the air–water interface, significantly influence CO 2 transport into the aqueous phase. The simulations demonstrate that classical force fields underestimate both the free energy of CO 2 transport and the strength of its interactions at the interface compared with the neural network potentials. In conclusion, the free energy and the interfacial dynamics of CO 2 are primarily influenced by the distribution of water within the instantaneous interfacial water layer, responsible for creating an asymmetric intermolecular interaction environment within the interfacial region.

Ab initio molecular dynamics↗

High-Efficiency Conversion of Ionic Liquid-Pretreated Woody Biomass to Ethanol at the Pilot Scale

We report that with a diverse and widely distributed global resource base, woody biomass is a compelling organic feedstock for conversion to renewable liquid fuels. In California, woody biomass comprises the largest fraction of underutilized biomass available for biofuel production, but conversion to fuels is challenged both by recalcitrance to deconstruction and by toxicity toward downstream saccharification and fermentation due to organic acids and phenolic compounds generated during pretreatment. In this study, we optimize pretreatment and scale-up of an integrated one-pot process for deconstruction of California woody biomass using the ionic liquid (IL) cholinium lysinate [Ch][Lys] as a pretreatment solvent. By evaluating the impact of solid loading, solid removal, yeast acclimatization, fermentation temperature, fermentation pH, and nutrient supplementation on final ethanol yields and titers, we achieve nearly full conversion of both glucose and xylose to ethanol with commercial C5-utilizing Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We then demonstrate process scalability in 680 L pilot-scale fermentation, achieving >80% deconstruction efficiency, >90% fermentation efficiency, 27.7 g/L ethanol titer, and >80% ethanol distillation efficiency from the IL-containing hydrolysate post fermentation. This fully integrated process requires no intermediate separations and no intermediate detoxification of the hydrolysate. Using an integrated biorefinery model, current performance results in a minimum ethanol selling price of $\$$8.8/gge. Reducing enzyme loading along with other minor process improvements can reduce the ethanol selling price to $\$$3/gge. This study is the largest scale demonstration of IL pretreatment and biofuel conversion known to date, and the overall biomass-to-ethanol efficiencies are the highest reported to date for any IL-based biomass-to-biofuel conversion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Retrospective and Prospective Examination of the 1960s U.S. Northeast Drought

As the most severe drought over the Northeastern United States (NEUS) in the past century, the 1960s drought had pronounced socioeconomic impacts. Although it was followed by a persisting wet period, the conditions leading to the 1960s extreme drought could return in the future, along with its challenges to water management. To project the potential consequences of such a future drought, pseudo-global warming simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model are performed to simulate the dynamical conditions of the historical 1960s drought, but with modified thermodynamic conditions under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP585 scenario in the early (2021–2027), middle (2041–2047), and late (2091–2097) 21st century. Our analysis focuses on essential hydroclimatic variables including temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snowpack, and surface runoff. In contrast to the historical 1960s drought, similar dynamical conditions will generally produce more precipitation, increased soil moisture and evapotranspiration, and reduced snowpack. However, we also find that although wet months get much wetter, dry months may become drier, meaning that wetting trends are most significant in wet months but are essentially negligible for extremely dry months with negative monthly mean net precipitation. For these months, the trend toward wetting conditions provides little relief from the effects of extreme dry months. These conditions may even aggravate water shortages due to an increasingly rapid transition from wet to dry conditions. Other challenges emerge for residents and stakeholders in this region, including more extreme hot days, record-low snow pack, frozen ground degradation and subsequent decreases in surface runoff.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Two–Dimensional Idealized Hadley Circulation Simulation for Global High Resolution Model Development

A new framework for the development of global high resolution models using a vertical- meridional, two-dimensional pole-to-pole domain is proposed. Compared with the three-dimensional global model, the two-dimensional framework can simulate cloud-scale convection at significantly reduced computational cost, data volume, and turn-around time, and accelerate the development phase. Although idealized, it allows for simulation of various clouds and scale interactions under a wide range of environmental conditions, even though zonal waves such as mid latitude storms cannot be simulated. Physics schemes can be tested and assessed over a full array of simultaneously occurring cloud regimes. The framework can serve as an intermediate step between a one-dimensional simulation and a full three-dimensional global model. Using this framework, we analyze the resolution dependencies of simulated clouds and the Hadley circulation in a range of global high resolution models by performing multiple 1000-day simulations; for some resolutions tested, for example, 2 km horizontal resolution, three-dimensional simulation is not feasible at the present time. Analysis shows that both horizontal and vertical resolution determine the properties of the Hadley circulation and clouds, and that the differences among the simulated Hadley circulations are understood as differences in scale interactions influenced by resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Anthropogenic Contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Abstract Daily maximum temperatures during the 2021 heatwave in the Pacific Northwest United States and Canada shattered century old records. Multiple causal factors, including anthropogenic climate change, contributed to these high temperatures, challenging traditional methods of attributing human influence. We demonstrate that the observed 2021 daily maximum temperatures are far above the bounds of Generalized Extreme Value distributions fitted from historical data. Hence, confidence in Granger causal inference statements about the human influence on this heatwave is low. Alternatively, we present a more conditional hindcast attribution study using two regional models. We performed ensembles of simulations of the heatwave to investigate how the event would have changed if it had occurred without anthropogenic climate change and with future warming. We found that global warming caused a ∼0.8°C–1°C increase in heatwave temperatures. Future warming would lead to a ∼5°C increase in heatwave temperature by the end of the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Electrical Resistivity Changes During Heating Experiments Unravel Heterogeneous Thermal‐Hydrological‐Mechanical Processes in Salt Formations

Abstract Rock salt is considered a suitable medium for the permanent disposal of heat‐generating radioactive waste due to its isolation properties. However, excavation damage and heating induce complex and heterogeneous thermal‐hydrological‐mechanical (THM) processes across different zones. Quantifying this heterogeneity is crucial for accurate long‐term performance assessment models, but traditional methods lack the necessary resolution. This study employs 4D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) monitoring during controlled heating experiments in a salt formation to unravel the spatiotemporal dynamics of THM processes. Advanced time‐lapse inversion and clustering analysis quantify subsurface properties and map the heterogeneity of THM dynamics. The ERT results can estimate subsurface properties and delineate the damaged and intact zones, enabling appropriate parameterization and representation of processes for long‐term modeling. This approach may be used in further improving the predictive models and ensuring the safe long‐term disposal of radioactive waste in rock salt.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Comprehensive Characterization of Water Group Ion Composition and Distributions in Saturn's Magnetosphere With Cassini Plasma Spectrometer Data

Saturn's magnetosphere is continuously supplied with neutrals from the Enceladus plume and the icy rings, which undergo ionization and charge-exchange to form a complex water-group plasma environment. While the Cassini Plasma Spectrometer (CAPS) instrument has provided extensive compositional information, detailed separation of individual water-group ion species in time-of-flight (TOF) data has not previously been achieved. In this study, we perform forward modeling of CAPS-IMS energy-per-charge (E/Q) and TOF spectra obtained between 2004 and 2012 to resolve O + , OH + , H 2 O + , and H 3 O + and to characterize their plasma properties, including number density, temperature, and thermodynamic κ. Our results demonstrate that O + is the dominant thermal ion species throughout Saturn's magnetosphere, comprising up to ∼70% of the total ion population beyond ∼5 Saturn radii (R S ). In contrast, molecular ions such as OH + , H 2 O + , and H 3 O + dominate closer to Enceladus but rapidly dissociate into atomic ions between ∼5 and 10 R S . This radial region is also characterized by the steepest increase in plasma flow speed, which rises from ∼40% to ∼80% of rigid corotation. Simultaneously, ion velocity distributions approach Maxwell–Boltzmann equilibrium, as indicated by high kappa values. These findings provide new constraints on the ion–neutral chemistry that regulates the balance between molecular and atomic ions in Saturn's magnetosphere. They also emphasize the critical role of the 5–10 R S region as a transition zone for both plasma composition and dynamics. Our results refine previous CAPS-based studies and underscore the need to incorporate seasonal variability and ionospheric coupling into future global models of Saturn's plasma environment.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗