Results for “Model selection” — Page 87

NASA NTRS2003

Method and system for detecting a failure or performance degradation in a dynamic system such as a flight vehicle

A method and system for detecting a failure or performance degradation in a dynamic system having sensors for measuring state variables and providing corresponding output signals in response to one or more system input signals are provided. The method includes calculating estimated gains of a filter and selecting an appropriate linear model for processing the output signals based on the input signals. The step of calculating utilizes one or more models of the dynamic system to obtain estimated signals. The method further includes calculating output error residuals based on the output signals and the estimated signals. The method also includes detecting one or more hypothesized failures or performance degradations of a component or subsystem of the dynamic system based on the error residuals. The step of calculating the estimated values is performed optimally with respect to one or more of: noise, uncertainty of parameters of the models and un-modeled dynamics of the dynamic system which may be a flight vehicle or financial market or modeled financial system.

Miller, Robert H.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence using High-resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression. Part II: Evaluation of Sample Models

Previous studies have shown that probabilistic forecasting may be a useful method for predicting persistent contrail formation. A probabilistic forecast to accurately predict contrail formation over the contiguous United States (CONUS) is created by using meteorological data based on hourly meteorological analyses from the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) and from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as well as GOES water vapor channel measurements, combined with surface and satellite observations of contrails. Two groups of logistic models were created. The first group of models (SURFACE models) is based on surface-based contrail observations supplemented with satellite observations of contrail occurrence. The second group of models (OUTBREAK models) is derived from a selected subgroup of satellite-based observations of widespread persistent contrails. The mean accuracies for both the SURFACE and OUTBREAK models typically exceeded 75 percent when based on the RUC or ARPS analysis data, but decreased when the logistic models were derived from ARPS forecast data.

Duda, David P.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Modeling Martian Dust Using Mars-GRAM

Engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Mars-GRAM s perturbation modeling capability is commonly used, in a Monte-Carlo mode, to perform high fidelity engineering end-to-end simulations for entry, descent, and landing (EDL). From the surface to 80 km altitude, Mars-GRAM is based on NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM). Mars-GRAM and MGCM use surface topography from Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA), with altitudes referenced to the MOLA areoid, or constant potential surface. Traditional Mars-GRAM options for representing the mean atmosphere along entry corridors include: TES Mapping Years 1 and 2, with Mars-GRAM data coming from MGCM model results driven by observed TES dust optical depth TES Mapping Year 0, with user-controlled dust optical depth and Mars-GRAM data interpolated from MGCM model results driven by selected values of globally-uniform dust optical depth. Mars-GRAM 2005 has been validated against Radio Science data, and both nadir and limb data from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES).

Justh, Hilary L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Streamwise Vortices on the Convex Surfaces of Circular Cylinders and Turbomachinery Blading

In assessing the results please recall that the Mach number regimes and model geometries differ considerably. Selection of the radius of curvature at the 10% chord location is consistent but arbitrary, although it does seem representative for most blades and gives a good fit for the results. Measured spanwise wavelengths of the periodic vortex arrays on blading are predicted well by the Kestin and Wood theory. If this behavior is at all common it could have implications for turbine aerodynamic and blade cooling design. The outcome is to establish that organized streamwise vorticity may occur more frequently on convex surfaces, such as turbine blade suction surfaces, than hitherto appreciated. Investigations and predictions of flow behavior should be extended to encompass that possibility.

Gostelow, Paul↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Second International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF2)

The ICRF2 catalog was constructed by the IERS/IVS Working Group with oversight by the IAU Working Group. Derived using data from August 1979 through March 2009, it is a great improvement over the original ICRF with 3414 extragalactic radio source positions, a noise floor of 40 microarcsec, and axis stability of 10 microarcsec. Significant refinements were made in the selection of defining sources, modeling, and the integration of CRF, TRF, and EOP. The adoption of the ICRF2 was approved by the IAU in Resolution B3 at the XXVII IAU General Assembly and became effective 1 January 2010.

Ma, Chopo↗

NASA NTRS2013

B- and A-Type Stars in the Taurus-Auriga Star-Forming Region

We describe the results of a search for early-type stars associated with the Taurus-Auriga molecular cloud complex, a diffuse nearby star-forming region noted as lacking young stars of intermediate and high mass. We investigate several sets of possible O, B, and early A spectral class members. The first is a group of stars for which mid-infrared images show bright nebulae, all of which can be associated with stars of spectral-type B. The second group consists of early-type stars compiled from (1) literature listings in SIMBAD, (2) B stars with infrared excesses selected from the Spitzer Space Telescope survey of the Taurus cloud, (3) magnitude- and color-selected point sources from the Two Micron All Sky Survey, and (4) spectroscopically identified early-type stars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey coverage of the Taurus region. We evaluated stars for membership in the Taurus-Auriga star formation region based on criteria involving: spectroscopic and parallactic distances, proper motions and radial velocities, and infrared excesses or line emission indicative of stellar youth. For selected objects, we also model the scattered and emitted radiation from reflection nebulosity and compare the results with the observed spectral energy distributions to further test the plausibility of physical association of the B stars with the Taurus cloud. This investigation newly identifies as probable Taurus members three B-type stars: HR 1445 (HD 28929), τ Tau (HD 29763), 72 Tau (HD 28149), and two A-type stars: HD 31305 and HD 26212, thus doubling the number of stars A5 or earlier associated with the Taurus clouds. Several additional early-type sources including HD 29659 and HD 283815 meet some, but not all, of the membership criteria and therefore are plausible, though not secure, members.

B- and A-Type↗

NASA NTRS2014

Broad-Band Spectroscopy of Hercules X-1 with Suzaku

Hercules X-1 was observed with Suzaku in the main-on state from 2005 to 2010. The 0.4- 100 keV wide-band spectra obtained in four observations showed a broad hump around 4-9 keV in addition to narrow Fe lines at 6.4 and 6.7 keV. The hump was seen in all the four observations regardless of the selection of the continuum models. Thus it is considered a stable and intrinsic spectral feature in Her X-1. The broad hump lacked a sharp structure like an absorption edge. Thus it was represented by two different spectral models: an ionized partial covering or an additional broad line at 6.5 keV. The former required a persistently existing ionized absorber, whose origin was unclear. In the latter case, the Gaussian fitting of the 6.5-keV line needs a large width of sigma = 1.0-1.5 keV and a large equivalent width of 400-900 eV. If the broad line originates from Fe fluorescence of accreting matter, its large width may be explained by the Doppler broadening in the accretion flow. However, the large equivalent width may be inconsistent with a simple accretion geometry.

X-rays: stars↗

NASA NTRS2016

High-Fidelity Modeling and Materials Characterization of Inconel 718 Component Fabrication by Selective Laser Melting Additive Manufacturing

No abstract available

Cole, J. Vernon↗

NASA NTRS2016

Natural Environments Definition for Design

Planning for future National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) missions will encompass a variety of operational and engineering activities that involve a multitude of issues, constraints, and influences derived from the natural environment. This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents a definition of the natural environment, i.e., a description in engineering handbook format of models and data specifically selected to support the architecture development, engineering design, and technology development for NASA's Exploration Systems Development (ESD) initiatives.

Justh, H. L.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Uncertainty Assessment of Space-Borne Passive Soil Moisture Retrievals

The uncertainty associated with passive soil moisture retrieval is hard to quantify, and known to be underlain by various, diverse, and complex causes. Factors affecting space-borne retrieved soil moisture estimation include: (i) the optimization or inversion method applied to the radiative transfer model (RTM), such as e.g. the Single Channel Algorithm (SCA), or the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM), (ii) the selection of the observed brightness temperatures (Tbs), e.g. polarization and incidence angle, (iii) the definition of the cost function and the impact of prior information in it, and (iv) the RTM parameterization (e.g. parameterizations officially used by the SMOS L2 and SMAP L2 retrieval products, ECMWF-based SMOS assimilation product, SMAP L4 assimilation product, and perturbations from those configurations). This study aims at disentangling the relative importance of the above-mentioned sources of uncertainty, by carrying out soil moisture retrieval experiments, using SMOS Tb observations in different settings, of which some are mentioned above. The ensemble uncertainties are evaluated at 11 reference CalVal sites, over a time period of more than 5 years. These experimental retrievals were inter-compared, and further confronted with in situ soil moisture measurements and operational SMOS L2 retrievals, using commonly used skill metrics to quantify the temporal uncertainty in the retrievals.

Quets, Jan↗

NASA NTRS2014

Broad-band Spectroscopy of Hercules X-1 with Suzaku

Hercules X-1 was observed with Suzaku in the main-on state from 2005 to 2010. The 0.4–100 keV wide-band spectra obtained in four observations showed a broad hump around 4–9 keV in addition to narrow Fe lines at 6.4 and 6.7 keV. The hump was seen in all the four observations regardless of the selection of the continuum models. Thus it is considered a stable and intrinsic spectral feature in Her X-1. The broad hump lacked a sharp structure like an absorption edge. Thus it was represented by two different spectral models: an ionized partial covering or an additional broad line at 6.5 keV. The former required a persistently existing ionized absorber, whose origin was unclear. In the latter case, the Gaussian fitting of the 6.5-keV line needs a large width of σ = 1.0–1.5 keV and a large equivalent width of 400–900 eV. If the broad line originates from Fe fluorescence of accreting matter, its large width may be explained by the Doppler broadening in the accretion flow. However, the large equivalent width may be inconsistent with a simple accretion geometry.

Asami, Fumi↗

NASA NTRS2018

Orion EM-2 TPS Radiometer & Spectrometer

Radiometers and Spectrometers embedded as flight instrumentation in a spacecraft's thermal protection system (TPS) can generate data on shock layer radiation to a spacecraft's surface for high-speed trajectories such as lunar return. Robust and accurate flight measurements of shock layer radiation can validate models and inform TPS selection and sizing, to reduce risk and TPS launch mass. Contamination from soot deposition and ablation products in the boundary layer condensing on a cold sapphire radiometer window or blocking open ports interferes with measurements. This poster describes characterization of the optical properties and performance of relevant materials, components, and contaminated windows, as well as investigation of contamination control strategies for the optics.

Ablation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

OVERFLOW Analysis of Supersonic Retropropulsion Testingon the CobraMRV Mars Entry Vehicle Concept

The CFD solver OVERFLOW was used to simulate the CobraMRV undergoing supersonic retropropulsion (SRP) in the Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel as part of a pre-test study. Aerodynamics of the CobraMRV are summarized and the sensitivity of vehicle loads to CFD parameters at a subset of operating conditions are investigated. Specific numerical methods, boundary conditions, and turbulence modeling options have been selected after considering the complex phenomena in SRP flows. Proper shock-capturing methods and dynamic grid adaption are necessary to correctly capture vehicle loads and dynamics. Present data indicates that at particular conditions, upstream asymmetries originating from the tunnel inflow plane contribute to measurable asymmetries on the CobraMRV heatshield.

OVERFLOW↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

J-OCTA Applications to in Space Manufacturing and Nanofluidic Technologies

We consider examples of J-OCTA software application to physics-based analysis of in-space manufacturing technologies. Firstly, we consider an atomistic model of thermal welding at the polymer-polymer interface for applications to 3D manufacturing by following diffusion of polymer chains. We show that each component of the polymer blend has its own characteristic time of diffusion and that both strain–stress and shear viscosity curves agree with experimental data. Next, nonlinear shrinkage of the metal part during manufacturing by bound metal deposition under microgravity, is considered using a multi-scale physics-based approach that spans from atomistic dynamics to full-part shrinkage. At the smallest scale we use atomistic dynamics to simulated sintering of a few Ti6Al4V nanoparticles, study sintering mechanisms and estimate important parameters including grain boundary width and diffusion rates of the atoms at the surface that are used at the other scales of modelling. Finally, we analyse selective ionic conduction through an artificial nanopore in a graphene sheet motivated by applications to desalination and energy harvesting. We build distributions of the number and orientation of water molecules in the ion’s hydration shells providing novel insight into the ion-water-carbon interaction at the nanopore.

molecular dynamics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Technology Assessment for Producing Propellant From Lunar Water

Introduction: The presence of water ice in permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) on the lunar surface may enable a sustained human presence on the Moon with minimal need for consumables. One of the most valuable uses of lunar water is to produce rocket propellant. A sustained human presence on the Moon will re-quire frequent launches from the lunar surface, and each launch will require tons of propellant. However, many other volatiles are likely to be present in the areas where lunar water is stable1. Producing propellant from lunar water in-situ will require the separation and purification of water before it can be electrolyzed into oxygen and hydrogen gas. The Resource Exploration and Science of OUR Cosmic Environment (RESOURCE) project, funded by the Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI) program, includes a task to demonstrate the end-to-end process of water extraction, capture, purification and electrolysis to produce pure/dry oxygen gas sourced from an icy regolith mixture. Water Purification: The requirements for water purity are driven by the type of water electrolyzer used. For example, the water electrolyzer currently used on the International Space Station is based on proton ex-change membrane (PEM) technology. PEM-based electrolyzers require water to be ultrapure and deionized (>10 MegaOhm-cm) so that electrical conductivity is limited to the membranes themselves, where electrical current is used to convert H2O into H2 and O2.. A practical first step toward purifying water that is sourced from a lunar PSR is to use freeze distillation to separate water from other volatiles2. A sub-micronic filter can also be used to ensure that a minimal amount of dust is present in any lunar water that is captured. The combination of freeze distillation and sub-micronic filtration will result in relatively pure water but would require a deionization step if being fed into a PEM electrolyzer. Water Electrolysis: An alternative to PEM electrolysis is to use a Solid Oxide Electrolyzer (SOE). This technology operates at a much higher operating temperature (~800oC) and has a limited pressure range but does not require water to be ultrapure and deionized. Another advantage of SOE technology is that it produces pure dry oxygen gas without the need of an additional drying step. PEM electrolyzers produce humid oxygen gas and the humidity must be removed prior to liquefaction. Assessment: In order to compare PEM and SOE technologies side-by-side, they must be compared at a system level that includes water purification and gas drying steps. Engineers at the Johnson Space Center up-dated and utilized a detailed In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) system model to compare and select the best option for the RESOURCE project which will conclude with a laboratory demonstration of the process of producing pure/dry oxygen from an icy regolith mixture in 2025.

A.J. Paz↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Technology Assessment for Producing Propellant From Lunar Water

Introduction: The presence of water ice in permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) on the lunar surface may enable a sustained human presence on the Moon with minimal need for consumables. One of the most valuable uses of lunar water is to produce rocket propellant. A sustained human presence on the Moon will re-quire frequent launches from the lunar surface, and each launch will require tons of propellant. However, many other volatiles are likely to be present in the areas where lunar water is stable1. Producing propellant from lunar water in-situ will require the separation and purification of water before it can be electrolyzed into oxygen and hydrogen gas. The Resource Exploration and Science of OUR Cosmic Environment (RESOURCE) project, funded by the Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI) program, includes a task to demonstrate the end-to-end process of water extraction, capture, purification and electrolysis to produce pure/dry oxygen gas sourced from an icy regolith mixture. Water Purification: The requirements for water purity are driven by the type of water electrolyzer used. For example, the water electrolyzer currently used on the International Space Station is based on proton ex-change membrane (PEM) technology. PEM-based electrolyzers require water to be ultrapure and deionized (>10 MegaOhm-cm) so that electrical conductivity is limited to the membranes themselves, where electrical current is used to convert H2O into H2 and O2.. A practical first step toward purifying water that is sourced from a lunar PSR is to use freeze distillation to separate water from other volatiles2. A sub-micronic filter can also be used to ensure that a minimal amount of dust is present in any lunar water that is captured. The combination of freeze distillation and sub-micronic filtration will result in relatively pure water but would require a deionization step if being fed into a PEM electrolyzer. Water Electrolysis: An alternative to PEM electrolysis is to use a Solid Oxide Electrolyzer (SOE). This technology operates at a much higher operating temperature (~800oC) and has a limited pressure range but does not require water to be ultrapure and deionized. Another advantage of SOE technology is that it produces pure dry oxygen gas without the need of an additional drying step. PEM electrolyzers produce humid oxygen gas and the humidity must be removed prior to liquefaction. Assessment: In order to compare PEM and SOE technologies side-by-side, they must be compared at a system level that includes water purification and gas drying steps. Engineers at the Johnson Space Center up-dated and utilized a detailed In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) system model to compare and select the best option for the RESOURCE project which will conclude with a laboratory demonstration of the process of producing pure/dry oxygen from an icy regolith mixture in 2025.

ISRU↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Tool Kit for Generating Simulated Radiation Measurements for Advanced Reactor Safeguards and Security

A tool kit was developed to simulate and analyze passive radiation measurements of molten salt reactor (MSR) operations to support development of nuclear safeguards approaches for this emerging reactor technology. A Transient Simulation Framework of Reconfigurable Modules (TRANSFORM) multiphysics simulation of an MSR produces time-dependent isotopic inventories at user-selected locations within the model. The tool kit implements the Gamma Detector Response and Analysis Software (GADRAS) application programming interface to inject the TRANSFORM isotopic inventories extracted/processed by a Python pipeline into GADRAS models of user-defined geometries. The TRANSFORM inventories are the source terms used to obtain synthetic measurements from GADRAS-defined detectors. The speed of TRANSFORM and GADRAS simulations enables surveying the large design space of MSRs (e.g., fuel type, fuel salt composition, number of loops) and the plethora of measurements (e.g., location, detector type, and collimation) within the reactor. This has enabled timely assessment of the various measurement locations and detectors to identify the most effective and efficient safeguards approach for a specific MSR design. Lastly, the tool kit also simulates extracted samples that can be aged to a desired dose, enabling stakeholders to optimize a measurement plan to use sample analysis as an element within a broader material accountancy plan.

Westphal, Greg↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Composite Materials for Heliostat Cost Reduction

This is an evaluation of composite materials for heliostat cost reduction, including the motivation, reference heliostat model, characteristic wind loads, selection of pultruded structural composites, and technoeconomic analysis using equivalent deformation.

composite materials↗