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DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Upgrade Package Documentation: LED Lighting, HP-RTU and ASHP-Boiler

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock and ComStock models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) upgrade measures, or upgrades. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility upgrade applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on an upgrade package of three end-use savings shapes upgrades - Light Emitting Diode (LED) Lighting, Heat Pump Rooftop Unit (RTU) (HP-RTU), and Air-Source Heat Pump (ASHP) Boiler, which we will refer to collectively as the "Interior Lighting and Heat Pump" package. More details on the individual upgrades can be found on the ComStock Measures Documentation page. An upgrade package applies two or more EUSS upgrades to a single building model simulation. Since ComStock is a bottom-up physics-based model, an upgrade package will go beyond aggregating or summing the individual upgrade results and produce novel results by simulating interactions between the upgrades. For example, pairing an envelope upgrade with an electrification upgrade would likely result in higher savings results than the sum of these upgrades individually, and the size of the heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment may be reduced if the envelope upgrade reduces the loads significantly.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Upgrade Package Documentation: Wall and Roof Insulation, New Windows, LED Lighting, HP-RTU and ASHP-Boiler

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility enduse load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) upgrade measures, or upgrades. “Measures” refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility upgrade applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1983

NTF model concept for the X-29A. Part 1: Requirements, guidelines, and design loads

A few Charpy samples containing a transverse EB weld at the V-notch location were produced. Three tensile specimens containing a transverse weld were also produced. These samples were tested at cryogenic temperatures. The welded Charpy samples resulted in average impact values of 20 ft-lb. This average value is as good as the NASA test samples with the base metal. The tensile specimens broke at slightly higher loads than had been calculated. The Charpy specimens did not come up to the prescribed level of 25 ft-lb. The results of the specimen tests are presented.

Daforno, G.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Maximum power point tracking for a multi-layered piezoelectric heel charger with a levered mechanism toward impact-based energy harvesting

The piezoelectric footstep energy harvester does not always work at its maximum power point when the external load is fixed, as the optimal load changes when the walking excitation alters. Thus, the harvesting efficiency is downgraded largely in real-life scenarios compared to in-lab experiments and theoretical or numerical predictions due to the mismatch between the actual load and the optimal load. To address this issue, the concept of Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) is investigated in this paper and the circuit design is implemented for a multi-layered levered piezoelectric footstep energy harvester (heel charger). The proposed event-driven MPPT circuit interface with a customized buck converter aims to maximize the power gained from daily walking using the heel charger to power a fixed load, such as smart insole or shoes. The MPPT circuit design is conceptually simulated and then tested with the heel charger to further validate if it works at its maximum power point when the frequency of the input excitation alters. Results show that the extracted power from the heel charger connected to a fixed resistance load with MPPT implementation is improved up to 300% compared to the one without MPPT implementation in simulation and up to 180% in the experiment when connected to a fixed load. The difference between simulation and experimental results is due to the optimization of using voltage sources as the heel charger and the control signals (pulse width modulation) from the microcontroller in the simulation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS1983

The effect of low velocity impact in the strength characteristics of composite materials laminates

The nonlinear vibration response of a double cantilevered beam subjected to pulse loading over a central sector is studied. The initial response is generated in detail to ascertain the energetics of the response. The total energy is used as a gauge of the stability and accuracy of the solution. It is shown that to obtain accurate and stable initial solutions an extremely high spatial and time resolution is required. This requirement was only evident through an examination of the energy of the system. It is proposed, therefore, to use the total energy of the system as a necessary stability and accuracy criterion for the nonlinear response of conservative systems. The results also demonstrate that even for moderate nonlinearities, the effects of membrane forces have a significant influence on the system.

Liebowitz, H.↗

DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER) With Envelope Improvements and Advanced Air Sealing

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson, et al. 2022). This document focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP) (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER) With Envelope Improvements. This measure combines a two-stage GHP with envelope improvements as a single package. As this package is a combination of two other measures, this document focused on documenting the results associated with this combination of technologies, with individual measure documents for two-stage GHPs and envelope improvements providing the information on the details of these measures. When the two technologies are combined, envelope improvements can modestly reduce energy consumption by a further 10%-15%, but also reduce the required size of the ground heat exchanger and heat pump by approximately 33% on average across all sites. The cost of installing envelope improvements in these homes is likely to be more than paid for by the reduction in equipment and drilling costs in these buildings for the majority of the stock.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This document focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER). This document builds on details established in the single-stage document (Maguire et al. 2025) to detail differences in the approach to modeling this higher efficiency, but more commonly deployed, type of geothermal heat pump. Specific EnergyPlus objects and product specific curves used are highlighted along with showing the results of this measure compared to the baseline and single-speed geothermal heat pumps. Two-speed geothermal heat pumps are able to save even more energy and on utility bills than single-speed products, albeit at the expense of a higher first cost.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Load Inrush Current Mitigation in Islanded Microgrids Powered by Grid-Forming Inverters

Grid-forming inverters in a microgrid may trip due to high inrush current caused by a switched connection of an inductive load, e.g., a relatively large induction motor. The control scheme presented in this article includes virtual inertia control method superimposed on the cascaded controller. This article studies the impact of cascaded control scheme used for grid-forming inverter to mitigate the inrush current effects and enhance the inverter’s robustness for the safe connection of inductive and dynamic loads. Experimental tests are performed using the virtual inertia method for generating the reference angle for synchronous frame conversion. The experimental performance and sensitivity of the controller to different controller gain settings for a switched connection of an induction motor are discussed. The cascaded operation significantly mitigates the inrush currents while the inverters can perform a normal operation. The performance of the control method is tested in a laboratory-scale hardware setup of a 208V microgrid fed by 5kVA and 10kVA inverters, and the results are presented.

Gursoy, Mehmetcan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sparse Control Synthesis for Uncertain Responsive Loads With Stochastic Stability Guarantees

In this report, recent studies have demonstrated the potential of flexible loads in providing frequency response services, predominantly due to their availability and cost-effectiveness. However, uncertainty and variability in various weather-related and end-use behavioral factors often impact the reliability of demand-side control performance. This work addresses this problem with the design of a demand-side control to achieve frequency response under load uncertainties. Our approach involves modeling the load uncertainties via stochastic processes that appear as both multiplicative and additive in the power system dynamics. Recently developed mean square exponential stability (MSES) results for continuous-time linear stochastic systems are applied to pose the control synthesis problem which results in an LMI-based optimization problem. Additional costs and constraints are added to the LMI-based controller synthesis to ensure MSES, improve closed-loop transient performance, maximize tolerable uncertainties, and promote sparsity in the controller. Additionally, the fundamental limitations between the tolerable uncertainties and control efforts while ensuring MSES are discussed. Further, the control synthesis problem for the case of the full-state measurement is generalized to the case of partial-state measurements. The proposed control synthesis is illustrated on an IEEE 39 bus system with rigorous studies to demonstrate the role of sparsity, closed-loop transient performance, tolerable uncertainties, and control efforts while ensuring MSES and achieving frequency response.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Canadian Wildfires on Mid Atlantic’s Region Air Quality: An Analysis Using ASDC Data

Wildfires pose a growing concern in North America due to their harmful impacts on air quality and public health, with increased wildfire activity in recent years leading to widespread smoke plumes that can transcend borders. The exposure of New York City (NYC), the most populous city in North America, to Canadian wildfire smoke highlights the substantial implications for public health and urban environments. To better understand the impact of Canadian wildfires on air quality in NYC, satellite data from the NASA Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) at Langley Research Center, along with ground-based measurements and atmospheric modeling results, are analyzed. We examine concentrations of atmospheric aerosols—particularly PM2.5 particulate matter originating from Canadian wildfires—their dispersion patterns, and the duration and intensity of smoke events impacting NYC. Data from multiple satellites, such as those from the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC), are synergistically used to identify regions affected by wildfires and estimate aerosol loading. Ground-based measurements, including data from air quality monitoring stations, provide localized information for validation and calibration purposes. The findings of this study contribute to our understanding of the impact of Canadian wildfires on NYC's air quality and emphasize the importance of monitoring and prediction of transboundary smoke events using data synthesized from multiple sources, such as those provided by the ASDC. This information is crucial for policymakers, public health officials, and residents in affected areas to develop effective strategies for mitigating the health risks associated with wildfire smoke and improving air quality during wildfire seasons. The utilization of ASDC data in this research highlights the critical role of atmospheric remote sensing in addressing the challenges posed by wildfires and their consequences on regional scales.

Ingrid Garcia-Solera↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analyzing the Impact of Canadian Wildfires on Air Quality in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic: with Data and Tools from NASA’s Atmospheric Sciences Data Center

Ingrid Garcia-Solera↗

NASA NTRS2010

Full-Scale Crash Test of a MD-500 Helicopter with Deployable Energy Absorbers

A new externally deployable energy absorbing system was demonstrated during a full-scale crash test of an MD-500 helicopter. The deployable system is a honeycomb structure and utilizes composite materials in its construction. A set of two Deployable Energy Absorbers (DEAs) were fitted on the MD-500 helicopter for the full-scale crash demonstration. Four anthropomorphic dummy occupants were also used to assess human survivability. A demonstration test was performed at NASA Langley's Landing and Impact Research Facility (LandIR). The test involved impacting the helicopter on a concrete surface with combined forward and vertical velocity components of 40-ft/s and 26-ft/s, respectively. The objectives of the test were to evaluate the performance of the DEA concept under realistic crash conditions and to generate test data for validation of dynamic finite element simulations. Descriptions of this test as well as other component and full-scale tests leading to the helicopter test are discussed. Acceleration data from the anthropomorphic dummies showed that dynamic loads were successfully attenuated to within non-injurious levels. Moreover, the airframe itself survived the relatively severe impact and was retested to provide baseline data for comparison for cases with and without DEAs.

Kellas, Sotiris↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Further Development of the Tamped Richtmyer-Meshkov Instability Method and Application to Molybdenum Dynamic Strength Calibration and Tabulation

The high pressure and high strain rate dynamic strength of Mo is experimentally and computationally investigated in the 3–20 GPa stress, 50–600 C temperature, and 10 5 –10 6 /s strain rate regimes using a modified tamped Richtmyer-Meshkov instability (RMI) method. Modifications to the tamped RMI method include a method to determine loading states during strain, a new strength calibration function based on interface shape, and a robust uncertainty quantification method. These modifications improve fidelity of the tamped RMI method, allowing evaluation of the compensating effects of pressure hardening, strain rate hardening, strain hardening, and thermal softening. The new calibration function based on interface shape is not limited to sinusoidal corrugations and could be applied to additional interface shapes. Plate impact experiments are performed at Argonne National Laboratory’s Advanced Photon Source’s Dynamic Compression Sector operated by Washington State University (DCS), driving a planar shock front through a corrugated Mo-D 2 O or Mo-C 8 F 18 interface, forcing the corrugation to significantly deform. The extent of interfacial deformation, RMI growth, is experimentally observed using X-ray phase contrast imaging at the DCS. RMI jet lengths and jet shapes are extracted from the experimental radiographs, then used to calibrate numerical simulations performed with the Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) hydrocode CTH. Mo yield strength, Y, as a function of shock pressure, P, strain rate, $\dot{\varepsilon }$, accumulated strain, ϵ, relative volumetric compression, RD , and temperature, T , is determined for each impact experiment and presented. The calibrated Mo yield strength values range 1.2–1.8 GPa, with strength generally decreasing as the impact stress increases. This trend is likely caused by thermal softening or strain localization. The tabular yield strength versus loading condition data presented in this paper can be used to fit complex strength models.

Voorhees, T. J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Li↗

NASA NTRS2009

Creating a Lunar EVA Work Envelope

A work envelope has been defined for weightless Extravehicular Activity (EVA) based on the Space Shuttle Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU), but there is no equivalent for planetary operations. The weightless work envelope is essential for planning all EVA tasks because it determines the location of removable parts, making sure they are within reach and visibility of the suited crew member. In addition, using the envelope positions the structural hard points for foot restraints that allow placing both hands on the job and provides a load path for reacting forces. EVA operations are always constrained by time. Tasks are carefully planned to ensure the crew has enough breathing oxygen, cooling water, and battery power. Planning first involves computers using a virtual work envelope to model tasks, next suited crew members in a simulated environment refine the tasks. For weightless operations, this process is well developed, but planetary EVA is different and no work envelope has been defined. The primary difference between weightless and planetary work envelopes is gravity. It influences anthropometry, horizontal and vertical mobility, and reaction load paths and introduces effort into doing "overhead" work. Additionally, the use of spacesuits other than the EMU, and their impacts on range of motion, must be taken into account. This paper presents the analysis leading to a concept for a planetary EVA work envelope with emphasis on lunar operations. There is some urgency in creating this concept because NASA has begun building and testing development hardware for the lunar surface, including rovers, habitats and cargo off-loading equipment. Just as with microgravity operations, a lunar EVA work envelope is needed to guide designers in the formative stages of the program with the objective of avoiding difficult and costly rework.

Griffin, Brand N.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Insights into Methodologies and Operational Details of Resource Adequacy Assessment: A Case Study with Application to a Broader Flexibility Framework

Assessing and maintaining resource adequacy (RA) is a core pillar of power systems. However, recent changes in the physical makeup of these systems and the conditions under which these systems must operate have yielded a renewed interest in the methods, metrics, and assumptions that underpin RA assessments. In this paper, we systematically explore a wide range of RA modeling dimensions, including: the objective function and level of operational detail in the underlying model formulation; the quantity (look-ahead) and quality (accuracy) of data that is available for making operational decisions within those models; and the physical configuration of solar photovoltaics (PV) with battery storage hybrid resources. We apply a set of probabilistic RA tools and production cost modeling tools to a realistic test system based loosely on a future Electric Reliability Council of Texas power system dominated by solar PV resources. Under the assumptions of our system and models, we find that multi-stage probabilistic assessments may provide a more robust evaluation of RA by capturing a wider range of operational and system interactions, but this comes at a computational cost of 1-2 orders of magnitude longer run time depending on the specific configuration. In addition, the information on thermal generator availability impacts RA performance by an order of magnitude more than solar resource forecasts, which is driven by the comparatively larger magnitude of thermal outages than solar forecast errors within our test system. Lastly, the flexibility provided by hybrid and other resources can help reduce system load-shedding event frequencies and enable the system to be more robust to inaccurate forecast information, and alternative hybrid inverter sizes can impact RA levels by 1-2 orders of magnitude. Our results point to the importance of a broader flexibility framework to describe the interaction between (1) flexibility "supply" from both physical resource capabilities and operational constraints considered in the modeling, and (2) flexibility "demand" from forecast errors, thermal generator outages, and other sources of uncertainty, as well as their RA impacts. Results are likely sensitive to the system buildout explored; future work could consider additional system configurations and conditions.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

DOE OSTI2022

Large-scale scenarios of electric vehicle charging with a data-driven model of control

Transportation electrification is forecast to bring millions of new electric vehicles to roads worldwide this decade. Planning to support those vehicles depends on detailed scenarios of their electricity demand in both uncontrolled and controlled or smart charging scenarios. In this work, we present a novel modeling approach to enable rapid generation of demand estimates that represent the impact of controlled charging for large-scale scenarios with millions of individual drivers. To model the effect of load modulation control on aggregate charging profiles, we propose a novel machine learning approach that replaces traditional optimization approaches. We demonstrate its performance modeling workplace charging control under a range of electricity rate schedules, achieving small errors (2.5%–4.5%) while accelerating computations by more than 4000 times. To generate the uncontrolled charging demand for scenarios with residential, workplace, and public charging we use statistical representations of a large data set of real charging sessions. We demonstrate the methodology by generating diverse sets of scenarios for California's charging demand in 2030 which consider multiple charging segments and controls, each run locally in under 50 s. We further demonstrate support for rate design by modeling the large-scale impact of a new, custom rate schedule for workplace charging.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗