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At least 1,567 records · Page 87

Forcing a Global, Offline Land Surface Modeling System with Observation-Based Fields

The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) drives multiple uncoupled land surface models in order to produce optimal output fields of surface states in near-real time, globally, at 1/4 degree spatial resolution. These fields are then made available for coupled atmospheric model initialization and further research. One of the unique aspects of GLDAS is its ability to ingest both modeled and observation-derived forcing for running global scale land surface models. This paper compares results of runs forced by modeled and observed precipitation and shortwave radiation fields. Differences are examined and the impact of the observations on model skill is assessed.

Rodell, Matthew↗

Realistic Precipitation Diurnal Cycle in Global Convection-Permitting Models by Resolving Mesoscale Convective Systems

Accurately representing the precipitation diurnal cycle has long been a challenge for global climate models (GCMs). Here we evaluate the precipitation diurnal cycle in the DYAMOND global convection-permitting models (CPMs) and CMIP6 HighResMIP models. Comparison of the high- (25–50 km) and low-resolution (100–250 km) models with parameterized convection in HighResMIP shows that simply increasing model resolution does not noticeably improve the precipitation diurnal cycle. In contrast, CPMs can better capture the observed amplitude and timing of precipitation diurnal cycle. However, the simulated spatial variation of timing in CPMs is smaller than observed, leading to an exaggeration of the spatially averaged diurnal amplitude. The better-simulated precipitation diurnal cycle in the CPMs is tied to mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), which contribute about half of the total precipitation. The observed life cycle of MCSs, including initiation and mature stages, is well captured in the CPMs, leading to a more realistic precipitation diurnal cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bundling measures for food systems transformation: a global, multimodel assessment

Background Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models. Methods In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–Lancet healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously. Findings Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO 2 emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices). Interpretation This study highlights the importance of implementing coordinated approaches to food system transformation and climate change mitigation rather than relying on isolated interventions. Comprehensive transformation requires understanding how supply-side and demand-side changes can interact with climate mitigation policies, enabling policy makers to design intervention packages that maximise benefits while minimising trade-offs across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.

Sundiang, Marina [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (Unite↗

Assessment of global and regional tectonic models for faulting in the ancient terrains of Mars

The structural mapping of tectonic landforms on Mars has provided a great deal of information regarding the planet's tectonic history. The present paper has the objective to test models of regional and global fracturing by evaluating the spatial distribution and orientation of the ancient heavily cratered terrain (HCT) structural landforms. Attention is given to background information concerning earlier studies, landform selection and analysis, rose diagrams, tests for Tharsis generation, and a calculation of thermal stress in the early Martian lithosphere. The contribution of classical Tharsis-centered tectonism to the production of HCT structural landforms was found to be very small. Few structural landforms investigated are either perpendicular to calculated principal stress trajectories or radial to Tharsis.

Schultz, R. A.↗

Clean Energy Co-Benefits: Air Quality, Health and Just Energy Transitions

Outdoor air pollution is a leading environmental risk factor and contributes to public health concerns. With assistance from the Department of State, NREL researchers supported the expansion of the Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP) to Global InMAP model. This model offers a new approach to estimating the human health impacts caused by air pollutant emissions and how those impacts are distributed across populations around the world. Further research sponsored by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and executed by NREL and the University of Minnesota applied the Global InMAP Model for the first time in a study of the effects of renewable electricity deployment on air quality and human health in Southeast Asia. This brief details the inception, application, and novel approach of the Global InMAP model, and more broadly NREL's capabilities for air quality modeling and health effects co-benefits analyses in the context of just energy transitions.

air quality↗

Process‐Oriented Calibration of a Turbulence Scheme in the DOE's Global Storm‐Resolving Model Using Machine Learning

A process‐oriented calibration framework is developed for the Simplified Higher‐Order Closure (SHOC) turbulence scheme in DOE's Simple Cloud Resolving E3SM Atmospheric Model (SCREAM). This framework leverages machine learning surrogates and observational constraints to efficiently calibrate SHOC adjustable parameters across two convective regimes: clear‐sky dry convective boundary layer and fair‐weather shallow cumulus clouds from ARM observations. We use perturbed‐parameter ensembles of a doubly periodic version of SCREAM to train surrogates and apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling guided by cost functions based on benchmarking large‐eddy simulations and observations to identify optimized parameter sets that perform well in both regimes. The calibrated SHOC parameters substantially improve boundary‐layer turbulence and cloud boundaries, and modeled cloud fraction and radiative effects align better with observations than the default. These results demonstrate that combining multiple process‐specific convective regimes with machine‐learning surrogates can reduce parametric uncertainties and yield a model more faithful to cloud–turbulence interactions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A two-component rain model for the prediction of attenuation and diversity improvement

A new model was developed to predict attenuation statistics for a single Earth-satellite or terrestrial propagation path. The model was extended to provide predictions of the joint occurrences of specified or higher attenuation values on two closely spaced Earth-satellite paths. The joint statistics provide the information required to obtain diversity gain or diversity advantage estimates. The new model is meteorologically based. It was tested against available Earth-satellite beacon observations and terrestrial path measurements. The model employs the rain climate region descriptions of the Global rain model. The rms deviation between the predicted and observed attenuation values for the terrestrial path data was 35 percent, a result consistent with the expectations of the Global model when the rain rate distribution for the path is not used in the calculation. Within the United States the rms deviation between measurement and prediction was 36 percent but worldwide it was 79 percent.

Crane, R. K.↗

Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2007 (Earth-GRAM07)

GRAM is a Fortran software package that can run on a variety of platforms including PC's. GRAM provides values of atmospheric quantities such as temperature, pressure, density, winds, constituents, etc. GRAM99 covers all global locations, all months, and heights from the surface to approx. 1000 km). Dispersions (perturbations) of these parameters are also provided and are spatially and temporally correlated. GRAM can be run in a stand-alone mode or called as a subroutine from a trajectory program. GRAM07 is diagnostic, not prognostic (i.e., it describes the atmosphere, but it does not forecast). The source code is distributed free-of-charge to eligible recipients.

Leslie, Fred W.↗

Tropical Cirrus in Global Storm-Resolving Models: 1. Role of Deep Convection

Pervasive cirrus clouds in the upper troposphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) influence the climate by altering the top-of-atmosphere radiation balance and stratospheric water vapor budget. These cirrus are often associated with deep convection, which global climate models must parameterize and struggle to accurately simulate. By comparing high-resolution global storm-resolving models from the Dynamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) intercomparison that explicitly simulate deep convection to satellite observations, we assess how well these models simulate deep convection, convectively generated cirrus, and deep convective injection of water into the TTL over representative tropical land and ocean regions. The DYAMOND models simulate deep convective precipitation, organization, and cloud structure fairly well over land and ocean regions, but with clear intermodel differences. All models produce frequent overshooting convection whose strongest updrafts humidify the TTL and are its main source of frozen water. Intermodel differences in cloud properties and convective injection exceed differences between land and ocean regions in each model. We argue that, with further improvements, global storm-resolving models can better represent tropical cirrus and deep convection in present and future climates than coarser-resolution climate models. To realize this potential, they must use available observations to perfect their ice microphysics and dynamical flow solvers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integration of space and in situ observations to study global climate change

The use of model-based global data sets of atmospheric circulation for studying fundamental dynamical and physical processes is discussed, focusing on limitations of the available model-based data sets. Data from the Global Weather Experiment in 1979 were analyzed by two authorized level IIIb data centers in 1980 and in 1981. The analyses led to difference in data-sparse regions such as the tropics. Study areas which can be addressed by an internally-consistent long-term multivariate data set for the atmospheric circulation are considered, including mean climate, forcing for the ocean models, global hydrological cycle, atmospheric energetics, intraseasonal variability, land surface processes, and structure and variability of vertical velocity, divergence, and diabatic heating. It is concluded that the most comprehensive technique for integrating space and in situ observations to produce this type of data set would be a four-dimensional data assimilation system with a realistic physical model of the type employed in operational numerical weather prediction.

Bengtsson, L.↗

A model for the global variation in oceanic depth and heat flow with lithospheric age

Variations in sea-floor depth and heat flow with age provide the main constraints on the thermal structure and evolution of the oceanic lithosphere. Joint fitting of heat flow and bathymetry yields a model with a hotter, thinner lithosphere than in previous models. The new model provides a significantly better fit to the data, including those from older lithosphere previously treated as anomalous. This will facilitate the analysis of lithospheric processes, including the effects of mid-plate volcanism and swells, regional subsidence, and hydrothermal circulation near spreading centers.

Stein, Carol A.↗

LANL Institutional Computing Highlight: Local Time-Stepping in Global to Regional Ocean Modeling (Annual Report) [Slides]

Multi-resolution global ocean simulations are possible with the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Ocean (MPAS-Ocean), although the model is currently constrained to a uniform time step. The time step is determined by the size of the smallest cell in the grid, according to the CFL condition. To overcome this issue, a local time stepping (LTS) scheme has been designed for MPAS-Ocean. We have made progress on implementing the LTS scheme, as well as quantitative results and performance tests.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The effect of geographic sampling on evaluation of extreme precipitation in high-resolution climate models

Traditional approaches for comparing global climate models and observational data products typically fail to account for the geographic location of the underlying weather station data. For modern global high-resolution models with a horizontal resolution of tens of kilometers, this is an oversight since there are likely grid cells where the physical output of a climate model is compared with a statistically interpolated quantity instead of actual measurements of the climate system. In this paper, we quantify the impact of geographic sampling on the relative performance of high-resolution climate model representations of precipitation extremes in boreal winter (December–January–February) over the contiguous United States (CONUS), comparing model output from five early submissions to the HighResMIP subproject of the CMIP6 experiment. We find that properly accounting for the geographic sampling of weather stations can significantly change the assessment of model performance. Across the models considered, failing to account for sampling impacts the different metrics (extreme bias, spatial pattern correlation, and spatial variability) in different ways (both increasing and decreasing). We argue that the geographic sampling of weather stations should be accounted for in order to yield a more straightforward and appropriate comparison between models and observational data sets, particularly for high-resolution models with a horizontal resolution of tens of kilometers. While we focus on the CONUS in this paper, our results have important implications for other global land regions where the sampling problem is more severe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling noise in global Mølmer-Sørensen interactions applied to quantum approximate optimization

Many-qubit Mølmer-Sørensen (MS) interactions applied to trapped ions offer unique capabilities for quantum information processing, with applications including quantum simulation and the quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA). Here, we develop a physical model to describe many-qubit MS interactions under four sources of experimental noise: vibrational mode frequency fluctuations, laser power fluctuations, thermal initial vibrational states, and state preparation and measurement errors. The model parametrizes these errors from simple experimental measurements, without free parameters. Herein, we validate the model in comparison with experiments that implement sequences of MS interactions on two 171 Yb + ions. The model shows reasonable agreement after several MS interactions as quantified by the reduced chi-squared statistic $χ^{2}_{red}$≈2. As an application we examine MaxCut QAOA experiments on three and six ions. The experimental performance is quantified by approximation ratios that are 91% and 83% of the optimal theoretical values. Our model predicts $0.93^{+0.03}_{-0.02}$ and $0.95^{+0.04}_{-0.03}$, respectively, with disagreement in the latter value attributable to secondary noise sources beyond those considered in our analysis. With realistic experimental improvements to reduce measurement error and radial trap frequency variations, the model achieves approximation ratios that are 99% of the optimal. Incorporating these improvements into future experiments is expected to reveal new aspects of noise for future modeling and experimental improvements.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Modeling Whitecaps on Global Scale

Whitecaps play an important role in the surface-atmosphere interactions across the ocean. They are directly linked to the energy dissipation rate during wave breaking and transfer of heat, momentum, and gas/aerosol exchange from the wind to the sea surface. Although the first models of W were dependent only on wind speeds, a large number of diverse models based on wind and sea state which include wave height, wave age, friction velocity, and stability effects have been proposed since then. However, it is recognized that most of the proposed W models have strong systematic (e.g., zonal bias) and random errors when compared against observations. This is partly due to the differences in environmental conditions, measurement techniques, and geographical locations among these studies. But, some of these biases are linked to the inability of the proposed models to capture the variability in W in certain wind/wave regimes. Despite the knowledge of existing biases, W residual relationships from the models with wind and wave fields remain highly uncertain, with residual trends varying between the published studies. Here, we take advantage of the availability of relatively dense observations of W from WindSat microwave satellite retrievals in combination with the University of Miami wave model which was recently incorporated within the NASA GMAO/GEOS system (GEOS-UMWM). We use Windsat W retrievals to assess and constrain the previously published W models and understand the relationships of residuals from models in different wind/wave regimes. We link these unexplained residual variations to additional factors such as swell index, drag coefficient etc and add information to the existing whitecap models. Since Windsat retrievals cover wide range of environmental conditions, it helps to reduce the uncertainties associated with differences in measurement techniques. Regression of wind-wave fields against all Windsat data points (CTL) results in larger residuals for lower wave age and W is overestimated upto ~4% for wave age < 10 and underestimated by upto ~2% as wave age increases. We attest to this bias by considering two approaches. One is to perform regression separately for different stages of wave development such as developing sea, fully developed, and wind sea regimes thereby understanding the sensitivity of regression coefficients to sea state (EXP1). Another is to derive coefficients of W models in EXP1 as a function of additional wind/wave factors such as swell index, drag coefficient, and mean squared slope, deriving more nonlinear W models (EXP2). EXP2 provides reduction in Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) by 0.1-0.3%. Sea surface drag has a stronger relationship with regression coefficients compared to swell index.These additional factors provide improved parameterizations in different wind and wave age regimes, with smaller unexplained/residual variations in W that has been a major concern in the W community.

Raman, Aishwarya↗

NASA Global Satellite and Model Data Products and Services for Tropical Meteorology and Climatology

Satellite remote sensing and model data play an important role in research and applications of tropical meteorology and climatology over vast, data sparse oceans and remote continents. Since the first weather satellite was launched by NASA in 1960, a large collection of NASA's Earth science data is freely available to the research and application communities around the world, significantly improving our overall understanding of the Earth system and environment. Established in the mid-80s, the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), located in Maryland, USA, is a data archive center for multidisciplinary, satellite and model assimilation data products. As one of the 12 NASA data centers in Earth Sciences, GES DISC hosts several important NASA satellite missions for tropical meteorology and climatology such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). Over the years, GES DISC has developed data services to facilitate data discovery, access, distribution, analysis and visualization, including Giovanni, an online analysis and visualization tool without the need to download data and software. Despite many efforts for improving data access, still quite a number of challenges remain, such as finding datasets and services for a specific research topic or project, especially for inexperienced users or users outside the remote sensing community. In this article, we list and describe major NASA satellite remote sensing and model datasets and services for tropical meteorology and climatology along with examples of using the data and services, in hope that may help users better utilize the information in their research and applications.

tropical meteorology and climatology, data, servic↗