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Johnson Space Center's Risk and Reliability Analysis Group 2008 Annual Report

The Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) Directorate s Risk and Reliability Analysis Group provides both mathematical and engineering analysis expertise in the areas of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) analysis, and data collection and analysis. The fundamental goal of this group is to provide National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) decisionmakers with the necessary information to make informed decisions when evaluating personnel, flight hardware, and public safety concerns associated with current operating systems as well as with any future systems. The Analysis Group includes a staff of statistical and reliability experts with valuable backgrounds in the statistical, reliability, and engineering fields. This group includes JSC S&MA Analysis Branch personnel as well as S&MA support services contractors, such as Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) and SoHaR. The Analysis Group s experience base includes nuclear power (both commercial and navy), manufacturing, Department of Defense, chemical, and shipping industries, as well as significant aerospace experience specifically in the Shuttle, International Space Station (ISS), and Constellation Programs. The Analysis Group partners with project and program offices, other NASA centers, NASA contractors, and universities to provide additional resources or information to the group when performing various analysis tasks. The JSC S&MA Analysis Group is recognized as a leader in risk and reliability analysis within the NASA community. Therefore, the Analysis Group is in high demand to help the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) continue to fly safely, assist in designing the next generation spacecraft for the Constellation Program (CxP), and promote advanced analytical techniques. The Analysis Section s tasks include teaching classes and instituting personnel qualification processes to enhance the professional abilities of our analysts as well as performing major probabilistic assessments used to support flight rationale and help establish program requirements. During 2008, the Analysis Group performed more than 70 assessments. Although all these assessments were important, some were instrumental in the decisionmaking processes for the Shuttle and Constellation Programs. Two of the more significant tasks were the Space Transportation System (STS)-122 Low Level Cutoff PRA for the SSP and the Orion Pad Abort One (PA-1) PRA for the CxP. These two activities, along with the numerous other tasks the Analysis Group performed in 2008, are summarized in this report. This report also highlights several ongoing and upcoming efforts to provide crucial statistical and probabilistic assessments, such as the Extravehicular Activity (EVA) PRA for the Hubble Space Telescope service mission and the first fully integrated PRAs for the CxP's Lunar Sortie and ISS missions.

Valentine, Mark↗

Next Generation Advanced Video Guidance Sensor Development and Test

The Advanced Video Guidance Sensor (AVGS) was the primary docking sensor for the Orbital Express mission. The sensor performed extremely well during the mission, and the technology has been proven on orbit in other flights too. Parts obsolescence issues prevented the construction of more AVGS units, so the next generation of sensor was designed with current parts and updated to support future programs. The Next Generation Advanced Video Guidance Sensor (NGAVGS) has been tested as a breadboard, two different brassboard units, and a prototype. The testing revealed further improvements that could be made and demonstrated capability beyond that ever demonstrated by the sensor on orbit. This paper presents some of the sensor history, parts obsolescence issues, radiation concerns, and software improvements to the NGAVGS. In addition, some of the testing and test results are presented. The NGAVGS has shown that it will meet the general requirements for any space proximity operations or docking need.

Howard, Richard T.↗

A Design Basis for Spacecraft Cabin Trace Contaminant Control

Successful trace chemical contamination control is one of the components necessary for achieving good cabin atmospheric quality. While employing seemingly simple process technologies, sizing the active contamination control equipment must employ a reliable design basis for the trace chemical load in the cabin atmosphere. A simplified design basis that draws on experience gained from the International Space Station program is presented. The trace chemical contamination control design load refines generation source magnitudes and includes key chemical functional groups representing both engineering and toxicology challenges.

Perry, Jay L.↗

Processing EOS MLS Level-2 Data

A computer program performs level-2 processing of thermal-microwave-radiance data from observations of the limb of the Earth by the Earth Observing System (EOS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). The purpose of the processing is to estimate the composition and temperature of the atmosphere versus altitude from .8 to .90 km. "Level-2" as used here is a specialists f term signifying both vertical profiles of geophysical parameters along the measurement track of the instrument and processing performed by this or other software to generate such profiles. Designed to be flexible, the program is controlled via a configuration file that defines all aspects of processing, including contents of state and measurement vectors, configurations of forward models, measurement and calibration data to be read, and the manner of inverting the models to obtain the desired estimates. The program can operate in a parallel form in which one instance of the program acts a master, coordinating the work of multiple slave instances on a cluster of computers, each slave operating on a portion of the data. Optionally, the configuration file can be made to instruct the software to produce files of simulated radiances based on state vectors formed from sets of geophysical data-product files taken as input.

Snyder, W. Van↗

Development of an Integrated Countermeasure Device for Long Duration Space Flight and Exploration Missions

Musculoskeletal, cardiovascular, and sensorimotor deconditioning have been observed consistently in astronauts and cosmonauts following long-duration spaceflight. Studies in bed rest, a spaceflight analog, have shown that high intensity resistive or aerobic exercise attenuates or prevents musculoskeletal and cardiovascular deconditioning, respectively, but complete protection has not been achieved during spaceflight. Exercise countermeasure hardware used during earlier International Space Station (ISS) missions included a cycle ergometer, a treadmill, and the interim resistive exercise device (iRED). Effectiveness of the countermeasures may have been diminished by limited loading characteristics of the iRED as well as speed restrictions and subject harness discomfort during treadmill exercise. The Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) and the second generation treadmill were designed to address many of the limitations of their predecessors, and anecdotal reports from ISS crews suggest that their conditioning is better preserved since the new hardware was delivered in 2009. However, several countermeasure devices to protect different physiologic systems will not be practical during exploration missions when the available volume and mass will be severely restricted. The combined countermeasure device (CCD) integrates a suite of hardware into one device intended to prevent spaceflight-induced musculoskeletal, cardiovascular, and sensorimotor deconditioning. The CCD includes pneumatic loading devices with attached cables for resistive exercise, a cycle for aerobic exercise, and a 6 degree of freedom motion platform for balance training. In a proof of concept test, ambulatory untrained subjects increased muscle strength (58%) as well as aerobic capacity (26%) after 12-weeks of exercise training with the CCD (without balance training), improvements comparable to those observed with traditional exercise training. These preliminary results suggest that this CCD can concurrently improve musculoskeletal and cardiovascular conditioning in ambulatory subjects, but further work is required to validate its use as countermeasure to spaceflight-induced deconditioning.

Lee, S. M. C.↗

First Assessments of ICESat-2 Performance Using Aircraft Data

The Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) Is a next-generation laser altimeter designed to continue key observations of ice sheet elevation change, sea ice freeboard, vegetation canopy height, earth surface elevation, and sea surface height. Scheduled for launch in early 2016, ICESat-2 will use a high repetition rate (approximately 10 kHz), small footprint (10m diameter) laser, and a single-photon-sensitive detection strategy (photon counting) to measure precise ranges to the earth's surface. Operating in the green (approximately 532nm), the six beams of ICESat-2 will provide improved spatial coverage compared with ICESat while the differences in transmit energy among the beams provide a large dynamic range. In order to evaluate models of predicted ICESat-2 performance, and provide ICESat-2-like data for algorithm development an airborne ICESat-2 simulator was developed and first flown in 2010, this simulator, the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL) has now had three deployments in the western US, and will be deployed to the polar regions in spring of 2012. MABEL uses a similar measurement strategy to what will be used on ICESat-2. MABEL collects more spatially-dense data than ICESat-2 (approximately 2-cm along track) with a smaller 2m diameter footprint in 16 green channels and an additional 8 channels in the infrared. The comparison between frequencies allows for analysis of possible penetration of green energy into water or snow. We present MABEL data collected over deserts, forests, ocean water, lakes. snow covered mountains, and saft flats, provide examples of how these data are being used to develop algorithms that derive geophysical products from ICESat 2 and assess expected performances.

Neumann, Tom↗

First Assessments of Predicted ICESat-2 Performance Using Aircraft Data

The Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) is a next-generation laser altimeter designed to continue key observations of ice sheet elevation change, sea ice freeboard, vegetation canopy height, earth surface elevation, and sea surface height. Scheduled for launch in mid-2016, ICESat-2 will use a high repetition rate (10 kHz), small footprint (10 m nominal ground diameter) laser, and a single-photon-sensitive detection strategy (photon counting) to measure precise range to the earth's surface. Using green light (532 nm), the six beams of ICESat-2 will provide improved spatial coverage compared with the single beam of ICESat, while the differences in transmit energy among the beams provide a large dynamic range. The six beams are arranged into three pairs of beams which allow slopes to measured on an orbit-by-orbit basis. In order to evaluate models of predicted ICESat-2 performance and provide ICESat-2-like data for algorithm development, an airborne ICESat-2 simulator was developed and first flown in 2010. This simulator, the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL) was most recently deployed to Iceland in April 2012 and collected approx 85 hours of science data over land ice, sea ice, and calibration targets. MABEL uses a similar photon-counting measurement strategy to what will be used on ICESat-2. MABEL collects data in 16 green channels and an additional 8 channels in the infrared aligned across the direction of flight. By using NASA's ER-2 aircraft flying at 20km altitude, MABEL flies as close to space as is practical, and collects data through approx 95% of the atmosphere. We present background on the MABEL instrument, and data from the April 2012 deployment to Iceland. Among the 13 MABEL flights, we collected data over the Greenland ice sheet interior and outlet glaciers in the southwest and western Greenland, sea ice data over the Nares Strait and Greenland Sea, and a number of small glaciers and ice caps in Iceland and Svalbard. Several of the flights were coincident in time and space with NASA's Operation IceBridge, which provides an independent data set for validation. MABEL also collected data along CryoSat track 10482 in north central Greenland approximately one month after CryoSat passed overhead.

Neumann, Thomas↗

Verification of Dosimetry Measurements with Timepix Pixel Detectors for Space Applications

The current capabilities of modern pixel-detector technology has provided the possibility to design a new generation of radiation monitors. Timepix detectors are semiconductor pixel detectors based on a hybrid configuration. As such, the read-out chip can be used with different types and thicknesses of sensors. For space radiation dosimetry applications, Timepix devices with 300 and 500 microns thick silicon sensors have been used by a collaboration between NASA and University of Houston to explore their performance. For that purpose, an extensive evaluation of the response of Timepix for such applications has been performed. Timepix-based devices were tested in many different environments both at ground-based accelerator facilities such as HIMAC (Heavy Ion Medical Accelerator in Chiba, Japan), and at NSRL (NASA Space Radiation Laboratory at Brookhaven National Laboratory in Upton, NY), as well as in space on board of the International Space Station (ISS). These tests have included a wide range of the particle types and energies, from protons through iron nuclei. The results have been compared both with other devices and theoretical values. This effort has demonstrated that Timepix-based detectors are exceptionally capable at providing accurate dosimetry measurements in this application as verified by the confirming correspondence with the other accepted techniques.

Kroupa, M.↗

Guided Wave Delamination Detection and Quantification With Wavefield Data Analysis

Unexpected damage can occur in aerospace composites due to impact events or material stress during off-nominal loading events. In particular, laminated composites are susceptible to delamination damage due to weak transverse tensile and inter-laminar shear strengths. Developments of reliable and quantitative techniques to detect delamination damage in laminated composites are imperative for safe and functional optimally-designed next-generation composite structures. In this paper, we investigate guided wave interactions with delamination damage and develop quantification algorithms by using wavefield data analysis. The trapped guided waves in the delamination region are observed from the wavefield data and further quantitatively interpreted by using different wavenumber analysis methods. The frequency-wavenumber representation of the wavefield shows that new wavenumbers are present and correlate to trapped waves in the damage region. These new wavenumbers are used to detect and quantify the delamination damage through the wavenumber analysis, which can show how the wavenumber changes as a function of wave propagation distance. The location and spatial duration of the new wavenumbers can be identified, providing a useful means not only for detecting the presence of delamination damage but also allowing for estimation of the delamination size. Our method has been applied to detect and quantify real delamination damage with complex geometry (grown using a quasi-static indentation technique). The detection and quantification results show the location, size, and shape of the delamination damage.

Tian, Zhenhua↗

The JPL Electronic Nose: Monitoring Air in the US Lab on the International Space Station

An electronic nose with a sensor array of 32 conductometric sensors has been developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to monitor breathing air in spacecraft habitat. The Third Generation ENose is designed to operate in the environment of the US Lab on the International Space Station (ISS). It detects a selected group of analytes at target concentrations in the ppm regime at an environmental temperature range of 18 - 30 oC, relative humidity from 25 - 75% and pressure from 530 to 760 torr. The monitoring targets are anomalous events such as leaks and spills of solvents, coolants or other fluids. The JPL ENose operated as a technology demonstration for seven months in the U.S. Laboratory Destiny during 2008-2009. Analysis of ENose monitoring data shows that there was regular, periodic rise and fall of humidity and occasional releases of Freon 218 (perfluoropropane), formaldehyde, methanol and ethanol. There were also several events of unknown origin, half of them from the same source. Each event lasted from 20 to 100 minutes, consistent with the air replacement time in the US Lab.

chemical sensors↗

Planetary Balloon-Based Science Platform Evaluation and Program Implementation

This report describes a study evaluating the potential for a balloon-based optical telescope as a planetary science asset to achieve decadal class science. The study considered potential science achievable and science traceability relative to the most recent planetary science decadal survey, potential platform features, and demonstration flights in the evaluation process. Science Potential and Benefits: This study confirms the cost the-benefit value for planetary science purposes. Forty-four (44) important questions of the decadal survey are at least partially addressable through balloon based capabilities. Planetary science through balloon observations can provide significant science through observations in the 300 nm to 5 m range and at longer wavelengths as well. Additionally, balloon missions have demonstrated the ability to progress from concept to observation to publication much faster than a space mission increasing the speed of science return. Planetary science from a balloon-borne platform is a relatively low-cost approach to new science measurements. This is particularly relevant within a cost-constrained planetary science budget. Repeated flights further reduce the cost of the per unit science data. Such flights offer observing time at a very competitive cost. Another advantage for planetary scientists is that a dedicated asset could provide significant new viewing opportunities not possible from the ground and allow unprecedented access to observations that cannot be realized with the time allocation pressures faced by current observing assets. In addition, flight systems that have a relatively short life cycle and where hardware is generally recovered, are excellent opportunities to train early career scientists, engineers, and project managers. The fact that balloon-borne payloads, unlike space missions, are generally recovered offers an excellent tool to test and mature instruments and other space craft systems. Desired Gondola Features: Potential gondola characteristics are assessed in this study and a concept is recommended, the Gondola for High-Altitude Planetary Science (GHAPS). This first generation platform is designed around a 1 m or larger aperture, narrow-field telescope with pointing accuracies better than one arc-second. A classical Cassegrain, or variant like Ritchey-Chretien, telescope is recommended for the primary telescope. The gondola should be designed for multiple flights so it must be robust and readily processed at recovery. It must be light-weighted to the extent possible to allow for long-duration flights on super-pressure balloons. Demonstration Flights: Recent demonstration flights achieved several significant accomplishments that can feed forward to a GHAPS gondola project. Science results included the first ever Earth-based measurements for CO2 in a comet, first measurements for CO2 and H2O in an Oort cloud comet, and the first measurement of 1 Ceres at 2.73 m to refine the shape of the infrared water absorption feature. The performance of the Fine Steering Mirror (FSM) was also demonstrated. The BOPPS platform can continue to be leveraged on future flights even as GHAPS is being developed. The study affirms the planetary decadal recommendations, and shows that a number of Top Priority science questions can be achieved. A combination GHAPS and BOPPS would provide the best value for PSD for realizing that science.

Dankanich, John W.↗

Computational Analysis of Multi-Rotor Flows

Interactional aerodynamics of multi-rotor flows has been studied for a quadcopter representing a generic quad tilt-rotor aircraft in hover. The objective of the present study is to investigate the effects of the separation distances between rotors, and also fuselage and wings on the performance and efficiency of multirotor systems. Three-dimensional unsteady Navier-Stokes equations are solved using a spatially 5th order accurate scheme, dual-time stepping, and the Detached Eddy Simulation turbulence model. The results show that the separation distances as well as the wings have significant effects on the vertical forces of quadroror systems in hover. Understanding interactions in multi-rotor flows would help improve the design of next generation multi-rotor drones.

Multi-Rotor Flows↗

Practical Techniques for Modeling Gas Turbine Engine Performance

The cost and risk associated with the design and operation of gas turbine engine systems has led to an increasing dependence on mathematical models. In this paper, the fundamentals of engine simulation will be reviewed, an example performance analysis will be performed, and relationships useful for engine control system development will be highlighted. The focus will be on thermodynamic modeling utilizing techniques common in industry, such as: the Brayton cycle, component performance maps, map scaling, and design point criteria generation. In general, these topics will be viewed from the standpoint of an example turbojet engine model; however, demonstrated concepts may be adapted to other gas turbine systems, such as gas generators, marine engines, or high bypass aircraft engines. The purpose of this paper is to provide an example of gas turbine model generation and system performance analysis for educational uses, such as curriculum creation or student reference.

aerothermodynamics↗

Practical Techniques for Modeling Gas Turbine Engine Performance

The cost and risk associated with the design and operation of gas turbine engine systems has led to an increasing dependence on mathematical models. In this paper, the fundamentals of engine simulation will be reviewed, an example performance analysis will be performed, and relationships useful for engine control system development will be highlighted. The focus will be on thermodynamic modeling utilizing techniques common in industry, such as: the Brayton cycle, component performance maps, map scaling, and design point criteria generation. In general, these topics will be viewed from the standpoint of an example turbojet engine model; however, demonstrated concepts may be adapted to other gas turbine systems, such as gas generators, marine engines, or high bypass aircraft engines. The purpose of this paper is to provide an example of gas turbine model generation and system performance analysis for educational uses, such as curriculum creation or student reference.

aerothermodynamics↗

Examination of the Structural Response of the Orion European Service Module to Reverberant and Direct Field Acoustic Testing

The NASA Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), comprised of the Service Module, the Crew Module, and the Launch Abort System, is the next generation human spacecraft designed and built for deep space exploration. Orion will launch on NASAs new heavy-lift rocket, the Space Launch System. The European Space Agency (ESA) is responsible for providing the propulsion sub-assembly of the Service Module to NASA, called the European Service Module (ESM). The ESM is being designed and built by Airbus Safran Launchers for ESA. Traditionally, NASA has utilized reverberant acoustic testing for qualification of spaceflight hardware. The ESM Structural Test Article (E-STA) was tested at the NASA Plum Brook Stations (PBS) Reverberant Acoustic Test Facility in April-May 2016. However, Orion is evaluating an alternative acoustic test method, using direct field acoustic excitation, for the MPCVs Service Module and Crew Module. Lockheed Martin is responsible for the Orion proof-of-concept direct field acoustic test program. The E-STA was exposed to direct field acoustic testing at NASA PBS in February 2017. This paper compares the dynamic response of the E-STA structure and its components to both the reverberant and direct field acoustic test excitations. Advantages and disadvantages of direct field acoustic test excitation method are discussed.

Acoustics↗

Examination of the Structural Response of the Orion European Service Module to Reverberant and Direct Field Acoustic Testing

The NASA Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), comprised of the Service Module, the Crew Module, and the Launch Abort System, is the next generation human spacecraft designed and built for deep space exploration. Orion will launch on NASAs new heavy-lift rocket, the Space Launch System. The European Space Agency (ESA) is responsible for providing the propulsion sub-assembly of the Service Module to NASA, called the European Service Module (ESM). The ESM is being designed and built by Airbus Safran Launchers for ESA. Traditionally, NASA has utilized reverberant acoustic testing for qualification of spaceflight hardware. The ESM Structural Test Article (E-STA) was tested at the NASA Plum Brook Stations (PBS) Reverberant Acoustic Test Facility in April-May 2016. However, Orion is evaluating an alternative acoustic test method, using direct field acoustic excitation, for the MPCVs Service Module and Crew Module. Lockheed Martin is responsible for the Orion proof-of-concept direct field acoustic test program. The E-STA was exposed to direct field acoustic testing at NASA PBS in February 2017. This paper compares the dynamic response of the E-STA structure and its components to both the reverberant and direct field acoustic test excitations. Advantages and disadvantages of direct field acoustic test excitation method are discussed.

Acoustics↗

Transient Modeling of Large Scale Integrated Refrigeration and Storage Systems

Recently, next generation techniques and designs were demonstrated using Integrated Refrigeration and Storage (IRAS) for large scale storage of liquid hydrogen at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Florida. Zero boil-off, densification, and in-situ liquefaction of hydrogen were achieved at various fill levels inside a custom-built 125,000 liter, horizontal-cylindrical IRAS tank, validating the applicability of the concept for large scale cryo-fluid storage architectures. This paper will discuss a number of transient physics models developed to predict the bulk behavior of large IRAS systems, and the comparison of those models to data gathered during the KSC test campaign. In an attempt to extent their usefulness to future IRAS designs, these models were agnostic with respect to stored fluid, tank size and geometry. Behavior during densification testing was examined at three fill levels, and ultimately the depressurization and bulk temperature trends of the KSC tests were predicted with good accuracy.

Swanger, Adam M.↗

Thermal Modeling of an Advanced Geared Turbofan for Distributed Engine Control Application

Reliability and life-expectancy of gas turbine engine components is very much correlated to the temperature environment in which they operate. This is no different for control system components, especially those with electronic parts. In recent years, the concept of Distributed Engine Control (DEC) has emerged to address the limitations of the current centralized control implementation. This new approach involves relocating control system components from a relatively benign environment to the harsher thermal environment of the engine casing and its surrounding structures and cavities. In this paper, an approach to modeling the gas turbine thermal environment is described. The modeling approach is applied to a 3rd generation geared turbofan design with a focus on the engine locations where control instrumentation and actuation could be installed. The analysis was conducted with an eye toward component reliability and service life as it relates to the thermal environment. The results were found to be reasonable. Furthermore, the model is shown to execute in real-time within a multi-model simulation environment that demonstrates the capability to interact with hardware to drive test equipment.

Kratz, Jonathan↗