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Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 39

The Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 39 is a statistical compendium prepared and published by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) under contract with the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office. Designed for use as a desk-top reference, the Data Book represents an assembly and display of statistics and information that characterize transportation activity and presents data on other factors that influence transportation energy use. The purpose of this document is to present relevant statistical data in the form of tables and graphs. The latest edition of the Data Book is available via the Internet (tedb.ornl.gov).This edition of the Data Book has 13 chapters which focus on various aspects of the transportation industry. Chapter 1 focuses on petroleum; Chapter 2 – energy; Chapter 3 – highway vehicles; Chapter 4 – light vehicles; Chapter 5 – heavy vehicles; Chapter 6 – alternative fuel vehicles; Chapter 7 – transit and other shared mobility; Chapter 8 – fleet vehicles; Chapter 9 – household vehicles; Chapter 10 – nonhighway modes; Chapter 11 – transportation and the economy; Chapter 12 – greenhouse gas emissions; and Chapter 13 – criteria pollutant emissions. The sources used represent the latest available data. There are also three appendices which include detailed source information for some tables, measures of conversion, and energy tables with electricity generation and distribution. A glossary of terms is also included for the reader’s convenience.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Report for 2.2.1 Task 5: Develop and Document a State-Based Alarm System for a Nuclear Power Plant Control Room Using Machine Learning

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has contracted IFE to support human factors research and the development of leading-edge technology to support control room operators as the U.S. fleet undergoes modernization and digitalization in legacy plants and control rooms. As the nuclear industry starts to shift to more digital controls and systems, these upgrades provide more information to the main control room in the form of digital signals and values. Also, an increase in the number of alarms points is provided by the vendors. New digital control rooms shift from main control boards to soft controls, and alarm panels to a single display. This change to a single display has created a problem of alarm waterfall, a situation in which the addition of new alarm points causes an overload of information to the operator during either a plant disturbance or other than normal full power operations. IFE’s goal is to find a workable solution to assist operators in both handling and understanding incoming alarms during emergency situations under these waterfall conditions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Zero Emission Drayage Trucks Demonstration (ZECT 1) (Final Report)

The objective of this project was to develop and demonstrate zero emission capable heavy-duty electric truck technologies in real world drayage operations and assess its technical feasibility to support demanding drayage duty cycles. Further objectives of the project included the promotion and acceleration of market adoption of electric truck technologies in cargo transport operations, by engaging trucking fleets and end users in demonstrating ad experiencing these technologies first-hand. The project realized the development and demonstration of two battery-electric and two battery-electric hybrid platforms that advanced the technologies and demonstrated proof of concept.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Joint Work Plan for DPC Filler Testing

The US generates approximately 2,000 Metric Tons of Heavy Metal (MTHM) of commercial spent fuel (SNF) each year and currently stores ~ 85,000 MTHM of commercial SNF at 70+ reactor sites, the disposal of which is the responsibility of the US Department of Energy (DOE). SNF is initially stored in spent nuclear fueld pools (SFPs). SFPs were initially constructed by US utilities for temporary fuel storage, but with no final disposal pathway available, SFPs are reaching capacity. To allow continued operation of the nation's commercial nuclear reactor fleet, utilities started transferring SNF from SFPs (wet storage) to dry cask storage systems, typically using dual-purpose (storage and transportation) canisters (DPCs). And while DPCs were designed, licensed and loaded to meet Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requirements that preclude the possibility of a critical event during SNF storage and transport, they were not designed or loaded to preclude the possibility of a criticality event during the regulated post-closure period following disposal, which could be up to 1,000,000 years (Price, 2019). DPC filler option criteria are detailed and materials that exhibit these attributes are explored. This document is an update of the SNL Joint Workplan on Filler Investigations for DPCs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Dry Storage Cask Inventory Assessment

The report, Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste Inventory Report [FCRDNFST-2013-000263, Vinson/Metzger/Carter 2017], provides information on the inventory of commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) as well as Government-owned SNF and High Level Waste (HLW) in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex. Inventory forecasts for commercial SNF were made for a few selected scenarios of future commercial nuclear power generation involving the existing reactor fleet including one scenario involving reactors under construction. This Dry Storage Cask Inventory Assessment report uses the data contained in FCRD-NFST-2013- 000263 to define the existing inventory of SNF in dry storage. This information is integrated with data on dry storage canisters and casks from the report, Storage and Transport Cask Data for Used Commercial Nuclear Fuel, 2013 U. S. Edition [ATI-TR-13047 2013] in a Microsoft Access database (hereinafter referred to as the Dry Storage Cask/Inventory Database). The Dry Storage Cask/Inventory Database is used to produce queries for assessing the various systems used for the existing inventory of dry storage casks. The database and this report will be revised in the future as the inventory of fuel in dry storage changes and as additional information becomes available. Both bare fuel and canistered dry storage casks are currently used to dry store SNF. Only 4 utilities currently use bare fuel storage systems for dry storage at 5 reactor sites. Seven unique bare fuel storage cask systems are used to store a total of 9,694 spent fuel assemblies in 212 total casks.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Halfway to Zero: Progress towards a Carbon-Free Power Sector

Sharply reducing carbon emissions is imperative to prevent the worst effects of climate change. Yet even in the power sector—often viewed as the lynchpin to economy-wide decarbonization, and where low-carbon solutions are increasingly plentiful and cost-effective—the pace and scale of the required transformation can be daunting. A review of historical trends, however, shows the progress the power sector has already made in reducing emissions. Fifteen years ago, many business-as-usual projections anticipated that annual carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from power supply in the United States would reach 3,000 million metric tons (MMT) in 2020. In fact, direct power-sector CO 2 emissions in 2020 were 1,450 MMT—roughly 50% below the earlier projections. By this metric, in only 15 years the country’s power sector has gone halfway to zero emissions. Other metrics also evolved differently than projected: total consumer electricity costs (i.e., bills) were 18% lower; costs to human health and the climate were 92% and 52% lower, respectively; and the number of jobs in electricity generation was 29% higher. Economic, technical, and policy factors contributed to this success, including sectoral changes, energy efficiency, wind and solar, continued operations of the nuclear fleet, and coal-to-gas fuel switching. This historical record demonstrates the ability of technological and policy changes to set the power sector on a dramatically different emissions trajectory. Past success, however, does not trivialize the challenges that remain for further decarbonization in the power sector and beyond. Nor does it offer a specific roadmap for how best to achieve additional power-sector emissions reductions. Numerous challenges confront a zero-emissions pathway, and future strategies will likely differ from those of the past. Many recent studies have assessed how to make further progress in decarbonizing the power sector on the pathway to decarbonizing the economy as a whole. We summarize the core results of those studies, but the primary goal of this report is to highlight the progress that has already been made in reducing power-sector emissions. As the country maps out a plan for further decarbonization, experience from the past 15 years offers two central lessons. First, policy and technology advancement are imperative to achieving significant emissions reductions. Second, our ability to predict the future is limited, and so it will be crucial to adapt as we gain policy experience and as technologies advance in unexpected ways.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Electrifying Transit: A Guidebook for Implementing Battery Electric Buses

This guidebook is organized to give transit decision-makers and relevant stakeholders an overview of BEB facts, data, and considerations important for planning their implementation in a variety of jurisdictions. First, the benefits and barriers for BEB are identified. Second, BEB basics in terms of the major components, including a) the bus, b) the battery, and c) the numerous charging options. BEB introduces new, high demand loads as the buses are charging and thus have a number of interactions with the electricity grid and the utility, which are explored third. Operation and maintenance of BEBs are considered fourth as BEBs should not be operated and maintained in the same approach as diesel buses. Fifth, the costs of BEB prices are summarized – and the choices of bus and battery are explored in how they impact BEB prices. Funding and financing options that support BEBs and their charging stations are also explored. Safety is a key consideration for BEBs and the guidebook touches upon codes and standards, hazards, and emergencies. The final section examines project execution, bringing together information from all the other sections so that long-term planning, route analysis, and fleet and infrastructure planning can be considered in the preparation of BEB deployment, and then deployment can be evaluated on a regular basis. A final conclusion revisits the information covered in the guidebook.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Isotopic and Fuel Lattice Parameter Trends in Extended Enrichment and Higher Burnup LWR Fuel Vol I: PWR fuel

Commercial light water reactor (LWR) operators and fuel vendors in the United States are pursuing changes to nuclear fuel that include extended enrichment (EE) and accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) designs. The term EE (8% > 235 U > 5%) is used in this report to refer to a subset of high assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) that is considered usable in commercial US LWRs in the near term. ATF features are designed to improve fuel system performance under accident conditions. One goal of EE is to improve fuel cycle economy by enabling fuel to be depleted to higher burnup than the typical current maximum pin burnup limits (62 gigawatt-days per metric ton of uranium [GWd/MTU]). Adoption of EE, ATF, and high burnup (HBU) fuels in the US commercial fleet requires a clear understanding of the effects on core physics parameters and used fuel isotopic content, as well as confidence in the accuracy of computer code predictions over an expanded range of materials, enrichment, and burnup. A thorough understanding of the applicability and adequacy of benchmark data (e.g., criticality, decay heat, isotopic content) for computer code validation is necessary to ensure that appropriate safety margins are maintained. To prepare for and support these potential changes, the effects of EE, ATF, and HBU are being assessed for selected representative LWR fuel designs. The project is divided into phases: this report summarizes the findings of Phase 1, which focuses on the lattice physics parameter and used fuel isotopic changes for a conventional Westinghouse 17×17 pressurized water reactor (PWR) design. The primary investigation tool is the SCALE Polaris code using the SCALE 56-group Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF)/B-VII.1 cross sections. The goal of the current work is to (1) identify and explain important effects of EE and HBU (reactivity, lattice physics, and isotopic effects) assuming that PWR fuel design and usage remain similar to those for current enrichment fuel, (2) provide limited code-to-code comparisons with higher order cross section libraries and/or codes, and (3) identify any apparent anomalous trends in the results for further investigation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Isotopic and Fuel Lattice Parameter Trends in Extended Enrichment and Higher Burnup LWR Fuel, Volume II: BWR

Commercial light water reactor (LWR) operators and fuel vendors in the United States are pursuing changes to nuclear fuel that include extended enrichment (EE) and accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) designs to further improve reactor safety and plant economics. Extended fuel enrichments above 5% 235 U pin enrichment and up to 10% 235 U are a subset of high assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) that may be deployed in commercial US LWRs in the near term. ATF features, such as cladding coatings or alternative cladding materials, are designed to improve fuel system performance under accident conditions. One goal of EE is to improve fuel cycle economy by enabling fuel to be depleted to higher burnup than the typical current limits (62 gigawatt-days per metric ton of uranium [GWd/MTU]). Adoption of EE, ATF, and high burnup (HBU) fuels in the US commercial fleet requires a clear understanding of the effects on core physics parameters and used fuel isotopic content, as well as confidence in the accuracy of computer code predictions over an expanded range of materials, enrichment, and burnup. A thorough understanding of the applicability and adequacy of benchmark data (e.g., criticality, decay heat, isotopic content) for computer code validation is necessary to ensure that appropriate safety margins are maintained. As part of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) agreement number 31310019N0008, “SCALE Code Development, Assessment and Maintenance,” the effects of EE, ATF, and HBU are being assessed for selected representative LWR fuel designs. The project is divided into phases, and this report summarizes the findings of the Phase 1 work, which focuses on lattice physics parameter and used fuel isotopic changes for a conventional GE14 10 x 10 boiling water reactor (BWR) design with GNF-2 part length rod patterns to model a modern BWR assembly design.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Advanced Ultra-Supercritical Component Test (ComTest) Project for 760*C Steam Conditions

ComTest is a $27M Department of Energy-funded project. Phase I, which began in November 2015, served to identify the technology gaps, as well as the scope and cost of required testing. Phase II, which was awarded in December 2018, includes an advanced manufacturing effort to complete U.S. based supply chain development for full commercial scale (800-850 MWe) AUSC components made of nickel-based alloys, components operating at up to 760°C. Completion of Phase II scheduled for September 30, 2021. Strategic Objectives of U.S. AUSC Project include: Power Plant Efficiency Improvements –Develop cost-effective, reliable technologies to improve the efficiency of new and existing high-temperature advanced generation power plants. Close gaps to achieve readiness for commercial scale demonstration of Advanced Ultra-Supercritical (AUSC) technology. Fabricate full-scale versions of key nickel-based alloy components. Validate capabilities of US supply chain for cost certainty. Support cross-cutting high-temperature generation technologies. Obtain ASME Code approval for new materials, components and processes. Increase power plant steam temperatures for higher cycle efficiency (Note: Average efficiency of US coal-fired fleet = 33% HHV; A-USC plant efficiency over 47% HHV at 1,400°F (760°C) steam temperature).

fireside corrosion↗

Microgrid Fast Charging Station (MFCS) Design Platform Project (Summary Report)

This report documents the important steps and outcomes of the Microgrid Fast Charging Station (MFCS) Design Platform project, executed by XENDEE Corporation and its testing and validation by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This final summary report builds on the first summary released on April 30th, 2021 and adds the final results from the Hardware in the Loop (HIL) simulations and tests, which have been completed July 14th 2021. With this report XENDEE Corporation and Idaho National Laboratory conclude the first version of the Microgrid Fast Charging Station (MFCS) Design Platform as well as all related tests and validations for two in-depth case studies for islanded and non-islanded operation. The platform itself utilizes XENDEE’s advanced modeling systems and INL’s HIL system to ensure project viability and technical feasibility. It also intelligently maps all cables, transformers, and distributed technology interactions to anticipate and mitigate problems during peak usage or adverse conditions. Finally, the system is designed to optimize dispatch and generation at each time step of the day allowing the Microgrid to take advantage of energy sales to the utility and best manage the charging of an electrical fleet. This allows operators to reliably build bankable Microgrid systems and to operate them to reach the maximum efficiency even under the dynamic needs of electric vehicle fast charging

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Integration of the Back End of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Management of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste consists of three main phases – storage, transportation, and disposal – commonly referred to as the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle. Current practice for commercial spent nuclear fuel management in the United States (US) includes temporary storage of spent fuel in both pools and dry storage systems at operating or shutdown nuclear power plants. Storage pools are filling to their operational capacity, and management of the approximately 2,200 metric tons of spent fuel newly discharged each year requires transferring older and cooler spent fuel from pools into dry storage. Unless a repository becomes available that can accept spent fuel for permanent disposal, projections indicate that the US will have approximately 136,000 metric tons of spent fuel in dry storage systems by mid-century, when the last plants in the current reactor fleet are decommissioned. Current designs for dry storage systems rely on large multi-assembly canisters, the most common of which are so-called “dual-purpose canisters” (DPCs). DPCs are certified for both storage and transportation, but are not designed or licensed for permanent disposal. The large capacity (greater number of spent fuel assemblies) of these canisters can lead to higher canister temperatures, which can delay transportation and/or complicate disposal. This current management practice, in which the utilities continue loading an ever-increasing inventory of larger DPCs, does not emphasize integration among storage, transportation, and disposal. This lack of integration does not cause safety issues, but it does lead to a suboptimal system that increases costs, complicates storage and transportation operations, and limits options for permanent disposal. This paper describes strategies for improving integration of management practices in the US across the entire back end of the nuclear fuel cycle. The complex interactions between storage, transportation, and disposal make a single optimal solution unlikely. However, efforts to integrate various phases of nuclear waste management can have the greatest impact if they begin promptly and continue to evolve throughout the remaining life of the current fuel cycle. A key factor that influences the path forward for integration of nuclear waste management practices is the identification of the timing and location for a repository. The most cost-effective path forward would be to open a repository by mid-century with the capability to directly dispose of DPCs without repackaging the spent fuel into disposalready canisters. Options that involve repackaging of spent fuel from DPCs into disposalready canisters or that delay the repository opening significantly beyond mid-century could add 10s of billions of dollars to the total system life cycle cost.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Primary Power Large-Scale Pilot Plant

The United States electrical power generation fleet encompasses a wide range of technologies, ranging from traditional combustion-based power generation, to nuclear power, to renewable energy. While the distribution of these assets continues to shift due to economic and regulatory influences, coal combustion continues to be a key part of the US energy portfolio. Despite the relative maturity of coal combustion technology, improvements in overall fuel-to-power efficiency and generation flexibility are still possible and will improve both the economic and environmental factors of coal combustion. Echogen Power Systems proposes to lead a world-class team including the University of Missouri, Electric Power Research Institute and Louis Perry Associates in the design, construction and operation of a 10MWe coal-fired supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) large-scale pilot. This transformational technology uses sCO 2 as a working fluid instead of water to achieve high thermodynamic efficiencies that can significantly exceed advanced steam-Rankine cycles. Further, the compact nature of sCO 2 turbomachinery offers capital cost and footprint advantages, and the low maintenance of a water-free power cycle can significantly reduce operation and maintenance (O&M) costs over conventional steam-Rankine systems. Recent integration studies of sCO 2 with coal combustion power plants highlight the significant improvements in plant efficiency that sCO 2 can offer relative to even advanced steam Rankine cycles. At commercial scales, coal-sCO 2 plant net efficiency is predicted to be 39-44.0% (HHV), or 10-20% higher output than conventional steam-Rankine systems, which will significantly improve the competitiveness of coal-fired generation. This proposal builds upon projects previously funded by the Department of Energy, including DE-FE0025959 (High-Efficiency Thermal Integration of Closed Supercritical CO 2 Brayton Power Cycles with Oxy-Fired Heaters) and DE-NE0008470 (Conceptual Design for sCO 2 Power Cycle Test Facility). An appropriately-scaled and properly designed and operated pilot project is essential to overcome the natural risk-aversion of the power generation industry and project financing community. The 10 MWe coal-fired sCO 2 pilot power plant proposed herein will reduce the technical and economic risk of this transformational technology, enabling commercial deployment at the conclusion of the project. For the second phase of this project, Echogen lead a team that completed and refined the pilot system conceptual system and key component designs resulting in the completion of a front-end-engineering-design (FEED) study, completed the NEPA review process, completed the permitting process for construction and operation, refined the techno-economic analysis of the proposed system at commercial scale and received commitments for Phase III cost share. The end result of the program will be to demonstrate the technical and economic superiority of the sCO 2 power cycle for coal-fired operation. Major risk elements will have been retired with sufficient operation at high power to enable the power generation industry to move forward with the first commercial deployment of this transformational system.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Primer on the Cost of Marine Fuels Compliant with IMO 2020 Rule

This report aims to provide information for owners and operators of U.S. ocean-going marine cargo vessels on the cost of different approaches to compliance with the IMO mandate to reduce the sulfur content of marine fuels (outside emission control areas) to no more than 0.5%. The IMO 2020 rule came into effect on January 1, 2020. The report discusses a suite of options for compliance including low-sulfur petroleum-based fuels and alternative fuels. Since fuel prices are a primary factor in determining the cost of the various alternatives, the document also includes a discussion of the main drivers of marine fuel prices. The cost analysis compares the average annual costs (capital and fuel) out to 2050 of each compliance approach under alternative scenarios regarding fuel prices, policy, and technology innovation. The cost calculations focus on representative U.S. fleet vessels for containership and tanker types. Even though the analysis focuses on average cost of approaches to comply with IMO 2020, the comparison of approaches also acknowledges other benefits or risks including fuel price risk and the contribution of the approach to achieving other potential environmental performance objectives or regulations.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Enhancement of Industry Legacy Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods and Tools

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are integral to nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, having tremendously benefitted the safety of the U.S. reactor fleet for decades. Insights obtained from the models have provided perspectives on a variety of applications, both at the plant and for the regulator. While these models are very useful, they are now being asked to represent and analyze aspects of the plant that were never envisioned by the initial PRA practitioners. Furthermore, heightened demands on the PRA models have led to increased computing power requirements. Additionally, as the complexity of the PRA models increased, the difficulty experienced by non-PRA experts in trying to understand these models, grasp the insights they provide, and effectively use that information has become problematic. The need for research to address key issues regarding PRA tools and methods has never been greater. Although the nuclear power industry has largely been well-served by these tools and methods, the underlying science is dated, remaining mostly unchanged for over two decades. Three areas were identified as most beneficial to address to maintain and improve the usefulness of the current practice legacy PRA tools: improvement in quantification speed, increased ability to efficiently model multi-hazard models, and improvement in modeling human action dependency in PRA. This report provides the outcomes from the FY2021 research into these three areas, identifying potential technical gaps and solutions, and charting the next steps forward to address current PRA challenges.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development of a Reconstruction Methodology Based on X-Ray Computed Tomography to Generate Realistic 3D Concrete Microstructures in MOSAIC

Despite being passive components, concrete structures represent a major capital investment in nuclear power plants. However, some concrete components are critical for the safety and long-term operation of the reactors: the concrete containment building protects the reactors from external aggression. The concrete biological shield (CBS) contains the radiation exiting the reactor to protect equipment and personnel. Depending on the design, the CBS also has a function for supporting the reactor’s systems. This function needs to be ensured in-service and during accident scenarios. After several decades of use, the CBS is exposed to high-energy irradiation over an extended operation time, exceeding the fluence level currently considered detrimental for the concrete’s structural properties. Such conditions occur at different times depending on the reactor’s operation and design. Nevertheless, from the perspective of subsequent license application, it is mandatory to assess the potential effects of prolonged irradiation on concrete. Unlike steel components, concrete structures are built with local constituents (cement, sand, and coarse aggregates) to avoid prohibitive transportation costs. Thus, concrete performance is determined by the tolerance or the susceptibility of its constituents against any aging mechanism. The tolerance against irradiation of the CBSs may vary greatly among the 56 nuclear power plants and 93 nuclear power reactors that form the current US light-water reactor fleet. Irradiation-induced degradation is mainly a result of amorphization-induced expansions of the silicated minerals present in the aggregates. The neutron irradiation–induced expansion varies from one rock-forming mineral to another: well framework–structured silicates (e.g., quartz and feldspars) exhibit higher swelling than chained (e.g., pyroxene) or isolated silicates (e.g., garnet). Silicates make up nearly 90% of the Earth’s crust. Other common minerals present in construction aggregates are carbonates found, for example, in limestone. Irradiated carbonates exhibit only very minor expansions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

High-Dimensional Data-Driven Energy Optimization for MultiModal Transit Agencies

Transportation accounts for 28% of the total energy use in the United States and as such, it is responsible for immense environmental impact, including urban air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, and may pose a severe threat to energy security. As we encourage mode shift from personal vehicles to public transit, it is important to consider that public transit systems still require substantial amounts of energy; for example, public bus transit services in the U.S. are responsible for at least 19.7 million metric tons of CO 2 emission annually. As such it is absolutely crucial that we study the bottlenecks to energy efficiency in public transit and develop new algorithms that can help the public transit agencies, especially those that are still operating mixed fleets, which may consist of Electric vehicles (EVs), hybrids (HEVs), and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), optimize the operations by deciding which vehicles are assigned to serving which transit trips.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Evaluate the System-Level Impact of Connected and Automated Vehicles Coupled with Shared Mobility: An Agent-based Simulation Approach

With the rapid growth of information and communication technologies, Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) are deemed to be disruptive with the potential to significantly improve overall transportation system efficiency, however, may bring Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) increase or other issues. Further, shared mobility systems are another disruptive force that is reshaping our travel patterns. To quantify the combined impact of CAV and shared mobility on travel behavior, traffic performance and energy efficiency, we develop a mesoscopic simulation-based framework for mobility and energy efficiency evaluation considering the disruptive transportation technologies. Under this framework, we develop novel models for energy intensity and modal activity, and evaluated a variety of energy scenarios for different combinations of CAV applications, various levels of automation, roadway characteristics, and traffic conditions, while also varying different vehicle types and fuel/powertrain technologies. Based applying this modeling suite to a calibrated BEAM simulation network in Riverside California, it was found that cooperative automated driving in general will improve mobility, but automated vehicles, even when deployed in a shared autonomous fleet, will likely bring an increase of VMT (up to 36%) due to mode shifts and deadheading. Ride-hailing vehicles typically have better energy efficiency and a higher share of electric vehicles, which helps offset the negative impact from VMT increases when estimating the system-level energy consumption. In general, simulation results show a 6% increase in energy consumption for the scenarios with an increasing shift to ride-hailing modes.

42 ENGINEERING↗