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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,567 records · Page 87
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

NUSTAR AND XMM-NEWTON OBSERVATIONS OF 1E1743.1-2843: INDICATIONS OF A NEUTRON STAR LMXB NATURE OF THE COMPACT OBJECT

We report on the results of NuSTAR and XMM-Newton observations of the persistent X-ray source 1E1743.1-2843, located in the Galactic Center region. The source was observed between 2012 September and October by NuSTAR and XMM-Newton, providing almost simultaneous observations in the hard and soft X-ray bands. The high X-ray luminosity points to the presence of an accreting compact object. We analyze the possibilities of this accreting compact object being either a neutron star (NS) or a black hole, and conclude that the joint XMM-Newton and NuSTAR spectrum from 0.3 to 40 keV fits a blackbody spectrum with kT∼1.8 keV emitted from a hot spot or an equatorial strip on an NS surface. This spectrum is thermally Comptonized by electrons with kT{sub e}∼4.6 keV. Accepting this NS hypothesis, we probe the low-mass X-ray binary (LMXB) or high-mass X-ray binary (HMXB) nature of the source. While the lack of Type-I bursts can be explained in the LMXB scenario, the absence of pulsations in the 2 mHz–49 Hz frequency range, the lack of eclipses and of an IR companion, and the lack of a K{sub α} line from neutral or moderately ionized iron strongly disfavor interpreting this source as a HMXB. We therefore conclude that 1E1743.1-2843 is most likely an NS-LMXB located beyond the Galactic Center. There is weak statistical evidence for a soft X-ray excess which may indicate thermal emission from an accretion disk. However, the disk normalization remains unconstrained due to the high hydrogen column density (N{sub H}∼1.6×10{sup 23} cm{sup −2}).

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DOE OSTI2016

REFLECTED LIGHT CURVES, SPHERICAL AND BOND ALBEDOS OF JUPITER- AND SATURN-LIKE EXOPLANETS

Reflected light curves observed for exoplanets indicate that a few of them host bright clouds. We estimate how the light curve and total stellar heating of a planet depends on forward and backward scattering in the clouds based on Pioneer and Cassini spacecraft images of Jupiter and Saturn. We fit analytical functions to the local reflected brightnesses of Jupiter and Saturn depending on the planet’s phase. These observations cover broadbands at 0.59–0.72 and 0.39–0.5 μ m, and narrowbands at 0.938 (atmospheric window), 0.889 (CH4 absorption band), and 0.24–0.28 μ m. We simulate the images of the planets with a ray-tracing model, and disk-integrate them to produce the full-orbit light curves. For Jupiter, we also fit the modeled light curves to the observed full-disk brightness. We derive spherical albedos for Jupiter and Saturn, and for planets with Lambertian and Rayleigh-scattering atmospheres. Jupiter-like atmospheres can produce light curves that are a factor of two fainter at half-phase than the Lambertian planet, given the same geometric albedo at transit. The spherical albedo is typically lower than for a Lambertian planet by up to a factor of ∼1.5. The Lambertian assumption will underestimate the absorption of the stellar light and the equilibrium temperature of the planetary atmosphere. We also compare our light curves with the light curves of solid bodies: the moons Enceladus and Callisto. Their strong backscattering peak within a few degrees of opposition (secondary eclipse) can lead to an even stronger underestimate of the stellar heating.

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DOE OSTI2016

( Suzaku Suzaku) observation of the high-inclination binary EXO 0748-676 in the hard state

Utilizing archived Suzaku data acquired on 2007 December 25 for 46 ks, the X-ray spectroscopic properties of the dipping and eclipsing low-mass X-ray binary EXO 0748−676 were studied. At an assumed distance of 7.1 kpc, the data provided a persistent unabsorbed luminosity of 3.4×10{sup 36} erg cm{sup −2} s{sup −1} in 0.6−55 keV. The source was in a relatively bright low/hard state, wherein the 0.6−55 keV spectrum can be successfully explained by a “double-seed” Comptonization model incorporating a common corona with an electron temperature of ∼13 keV. The seed photons are thought to be supplied from both the neutron star surface and a cooler truncated disk. Compared to a sample of non-dipping, low-mass X-ray binaries in the low/hard state, the spectrum is subject to stronger Comptonization with a relatively larger Comptonizing y-parameter of ∼1.4 and a larger coronal optical depth of ∼5. This result, when attributed to the high inclination of EXO 0748−676, suggests that the Comptonizing corona may elongate along the disk plane and provide a longer path for the seed photons when viewed from edge-on inclinations.

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DOE OSTI2016

A NEW CONCEPT FOR SPECTROPHOTOMETRY OF EXOPLANETS WITH SPACE-BORNE TELESCOPES

We propose a new concept for the spectral characterization of transiting exoplanets with future space-based telescopes. This concept, called densified pupil spectroscopy, allows us to perform high, stable spectrophotometry against telescope pointing jitter and deformation of the primary mirror. This densified pupil spectrometer comprises the following three roles: division of a pupil into a number of sub-pupils, densification of each sub-pupil, and acquisition of the spectrum of each sub-pupil with a conventional spectrometer. Focusing on the fact that the divided and densified sub-pupil can be treated as a point source, we discovered that a simplified spectrometer allows us to acquire the spectra of the densified sub-pupils on the detector plane−an optical conjugate with the primary mirror−by putting the divided and densified sub-pupils on the entrance slit of the spectrometer. The acquired multiple spectra are not principally moved on the detector against low-order aberrations such as the telescope pointing jitter and any deformation of the primary mirror. The reliability of the observation result is also increased by statistically treating them. Our numerical calculations show that because this method suppresses the instrumental systematic errors down to 10 ppm under telescopes with modest pointing accuracy, next generation space telescopes with more than 2.5 m diameter potentially provide opportunities to characterize temperate super-Earths around nearby late-type stars through the transmission spectroscopy and secondary eclipse.

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DOE OSTI2016

THE TIME-DOMAIN SPECTROSCOPIC SURVEY: UNDERSTANDING THE OPTICALLY VARIABLE SKY WITH SEQUELS IN SDSS-III

The Time-Domain Spectroscopic Survey (TDSS) is an SDSS-IV eBOSS subproject primarily aimed at obtaining identification spectra of ∼220,000 optically variable objects systematically selected from SDSS/Pan-STARRS1 multi-epoch imaging. We present a preview of the science enabled by TDSS, based on TDSS spectra taken over ∼320 deg{sup 2} of sky as part of the SEQUELS survey in SDSS-III, which is in part a pilot survey for eBOSS in SDSS-IV. Using the 15,746 TDSS-selected single-epoch spectra of photometrically variable objects in SEQUELS, we determine the demographics of our variability-selected sample and investigate the unique spectral characteristics inherent in samples selected by variability. We show that variability-based selection of quasars complements color-based selection by selecting additional redder quasars and mitigates redshift biases to produce a smooth quasar redshift distribution over a wide range of redshifts. The resulting quasar sample contains systematically higher fractions of blazars and broad absorption line quasars than from color-selected samples. Similarly, we show that M dwarfs in the TDSS-selected stellar sample have systematically higher chromospheric active fractions than the underlying M-dwarf population based on their H α emission. TDSS also contains a large number of RR Lyrae and eclipsing binary stars with main-sequence colors, including a few composite-spectrum binaries. Finally, our visual inspection of TDSS spectra uncovers a significant number of peculiar spectra, and we highlight a few cases of these interesting objects. With a factor of ∼15 more spectra, the main TDSS survey in SDSS-IV will leverage the lessons learned from these early results for a variety of time-domain science applications.

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DOE OSTI2016

SXP 214: an X-ray pulsar in the small magellanic cloud, crossing the circumstellar disk of the companion

Located in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), SXP 214 is an X-ray pulsar in a high mass X-ray binary system with a Be-star companion. A recent survey of the SMC under a Chandra X-ray Visionary program found that the source was in a transition when the X-ray flux was on a steady rise. The Lomb–Scargle periodogram revealed a pulse period of 211.49 ± 0.42 s, which is significantly (>5σ) shorter than the previous measurements made with XMM-Newton and RXTE. This implies that the system has gone through sudden spin-up episodes recently. The pulse profile shows a sharp eclipse-like feature with a modulation amplitude of >95%. The linear rise of the observed X-ray luminosity from ≲2× to 7×10{sup 35} erg s{sup −1} is correlated with a steady softening of the X-ray spectrum, which can be described by the changes in the local absorption from N {sub H} ∼ 10{sup 24} to ≲10{sup 20} cm{sup −2} for an absorbed power-law model. The soft X-ray emission below 2 keV was absent in the early part of the observation when only the pulsating hard X-ray component was observed, whereas at later times, both soft and hard X-ray components were observed to be pulsating. A likely explanation is that the neutron star was initially hidden in the circumstellar disk of the companion, and later came out of the disk with the accreted material that continued fueling the observed pulsation.

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DOE OSTI2016

A 2.4% DETERMINATION OF THE LOCAL VALUE OF THE HUBBLE CONSTANT

We use the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) to reduce the uncertainty in the local value of the Hubble constant from 3.3% to 2.4%. The bulk of this improvement comes from new near-infrared (NIR) observations of Cepheid variables in 11 host galaxies of recent type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), more than doubling the sample of reliable SNe Ia having a Cepheid-calibrated distance to a total of 19; these in turn leverage the magnitude-redshift relation based on ∼300 SNe Ia at z < 0.15. All 19 hosts as well as the megamaser system NGC 4258 have been observed with WFC3 in the optical and NIR, thus nullifying cross-instrument zeropoint errors in the relative distance estimates from Cepheids. Other noteworthy improvements include a 33% reduction in the systematic uncertainty in the maser distance to NGC 4258, a larger sample of Cepheids in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), a more robust distance to the LMC based on late-type detached eclipsing binaries (DEBs), HST observations of Cepheids in M31, and new HST -based trigonometric parallaxes for Milky Way (MW) Cepheids. We consider four geometric distance calibrations of Cepheids: (i) megamasers in NGC 4258, (ii) 8 DEBs in the LMC, (iii) 15 MW Cepheids with parallaxes measured with HST /FGS, HST /WFC3 spatial scanning and/or Hipparcos , and (iv) 2 DEBs in M31. The Hubble constant from each is 72.25 ± 2.51, 72.04 ± 2.67, 76.18 ± 2.37, and 74.50 ± 3.27 km s{sup 1} Mpc{sup 1}, respectively. Our best estimate of H {sub 0} = 73.24 ± 1.74 km s{sup 1} Mpc{sup 1} combines the anchors NGC 4258, MW, and LMC, yielding a 2.4% determination (all quoted uncertainties include fully propagated statistical and systematic components). This value is 3.4 σ higher than 66.93 ± 0.62 km s{sup 1} Mpc{sup 1} predicted by ΛCDM with 3 neutrino flavors having a mass of 0.06 eV and the new Planck data, but the discrepancy reduces to 2.1 σ relative to the prediction of 69.3 ± 0.7 km s{sup 1} Mpc{sup 1} based on the comparably precise combination of WMAP +ACT+SPT+BAO observations, suggesting that systematic uncertainties in CMB radiation measurements may play a role in the tension. If we take the conflict between Planck high-redshift measurements and our local determination of H {sub 0} at face value, one plausible explanation could involve an additional source of dark radiation in the early universe in the range of Δ N {sub eff} ≈ 0.4–1. We anticipate further significant improvements in H {sub 0} from upcoming parallax measurements of long-period MW Cepheids.

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DOE OSTI2016

CHANDRA AND SWIFT X-RAY OBSERVATIONS OF THE X-RAY PULSAR SMC X-2 DURING THE OUTBURST OF 2015

We report the Chandra /HRC-S and Swift /XRT observations for the 2015 outburst of the high-mass X-ray binary pulsar in the Small Magellanic Cloud, SMC X-2. While previous studies suggested that either an O star or a Be star in the field is the high-mass companion of SMC X-2, our Chandra /HRC-S image unambiguously confirms the O-type star as the true optical counterpart. Using the Swift /XRT observations, we extracted accurate orbital parameters of the pulsar binary through a time of arrivals analysis. In addition, there were two X-ray dips near the inferior conjunction, which are possibly caused by eclipses or an ionized high-density shadow wind near the companion’s surface. Finally, we propose that an outflow driven by the radiation pressure from day ∼10 played an important role in the X-ray/optical evolution of the outburst.

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DOE OSTI2016

Long-term X-ray variability of typical active galactic nuclei in the distant universe

We perform long-term (≈15 years, observed-frame) X-ray variability analyses of the 68 brightest radio-quiet active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in the 6 Ms Chandra Deep Field-South survey; the majority are in the redshift range of 0.6–3.1, providing access to penetrating rest-frame X-rays up to ≈10–30 keV. Of the 68 sources, 24 are optical spectral type I AGNs, and the rest (44) are type II AGNs. The timescales probed in this work are among the longest for X-ray variability studies of distant AGNs. Photometric analyses reveal widespread photon flux variability: 90% of AGNs are variable above a 95% confidence level, including many X-ray obscured AGNs and several optically classified type II quasars. We characterize the intrinsic X-ray luminosity (L{sub X}) and absorption (N{sub H}) variability via spectral fitting. Most (74%) sources show L{sub X} variability; the variability amplitudes are generally smaller for quasars. A Compton-thick candidate AGN shows variability of its high-energy X-ray flux, indicating the size of reflecting material to be ≲0.3 pc. L{sub X} variability is also detected in a broad absorption line quasar. The N{sub H} variability amplitude for our sample appears to rise as time separation increases. About 16% of sources show N{sub H} variability. One source transitions from an X-ray unobscured to obscured state, while its optical classification remains type I; this behavior indicates the X-ray eclipsing material is not large enough to obscure the whole broad-line region.

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DOE OSTI2016

The K2 M67 study: revisiting old friends with K2 reveals oscillating red giants in the open cluster M67

Observations of stellar clusters have had a tremendous impact in forming our understanding of stellar evolution. The open cluster M67 has a particularly important role as a calibration benchmark for stellar evolution theory due to its near-solar composition and age. As a result, it has been observed extensively, including attempts to detect solar-like oscillations in its main sequence and red giant stars. However, any asteroseismic inference has so far remained elusive due to the difficulty in measuring these extremely low-amplitude oscillations. Here we report the first unambiguous detection of solar-like oscillations in the red giants of M67. We use data from the Kepler ecliptic mission, K2, to measure the global asteroseismic properties. We find a model-independent seismic-informed distance of 816 ± 11 pc, or (m−M){sub 0} = 9.57±0.03 mag, an average red giant mass of 1.36±0.01 M{sub ⊙}, in agreement with the dynamical mass from an eclipsing binary near the cluster turn-off, and ages of individual stars compatible with isochrone fitting. We see no evidence of strong mass loss on the red giant branch. We also determine seismic logg of all the cluster giants with a typical precision of ∼0.01 dex. Our results generally show good agreement with independent methods and support the use of seismic scaling relations to determine global properties of red giant stars with near-solar metallicity. We further illustrate that the data are of such high quality that future work on individual mode frequencies should be possible, which would extend the scope of seismic analysis of this cluster.

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DOE OSTI2016

Tatooine's future: the eccentric response of Kepler's circumbinary planets to common-envelope evolution of their host stars

Inspired by the recent Kepler discoveries of circumbinary planets orbiting nine close binary stars, we explore the fate of the former as the latter evolve off the main sequence. We combine binary star evolution models with dynamical simulations to study the orbital evolution of these planets as their hosts undergo common-envelope (CE) stages, losing in the process a tremendous amount of mass on dynamical timescales. Five of the systems experience at least one Roche-lobe overflow and CE stage (Kepler-1647 experiences three), and the binary stars either shrink to very short orbits or coalesce; two systems trigger a double-degenerate supernova explosion. Kepler’s circumbinary planets predominantly remain gravitationally bound at the end of the CE phase, migrate to larger orbits, and may gain significant eccentricity; their orbital expansion can be more than an order of magnitude and can occur over the course of a single planetary orbit. The orbits these planets can reach are qualitatively consistent with those of the currently known post-CE, eclipse-time variations circumbinary candidates. Our results also show that circumbinary planets can experience both modes of orbital expansion (adiabatic and nonadiabatic) if their host binaries undergo more than one CE stage; multiplanet circumbinary systems like Kepler-47 can experience both modes during the same CE stage. Additionally, unlike Mercury orbiting the Sun, a circumbinary planet with the same semimajor axis can survive the CE evolution of a close binary star with a total mass of 1 M{sub ⊙}.

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DOE OSTI2016

PLANETARY CANDIDATES FROM THE FIRST YEAR OF THE K2 MISSION

The Kepler Space Telescope is currently searching for planets transiting stars along the ecliptic plane as part of its extended K2 mission. We processed the publicly released data from the first year of K2 observations (Campaigns 0, 1, 2, and 3) and searched for periodic eclipse signals consistent with planetary transits. Out of the 59,174 targets that we searched, we detect 234 planetary candidates around 208 stars. These candidates range in size from gas giants to smaller than the Earth, and range in orbital periods from hours to over a month. We conducted initial reconnaissance spectroscopy of 68 of the brighter candidate host stars, and present high-resolution optical spectra for these stars. We make all of our data products, including light curves, spectra, and vetting diagnostics available to users online.

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DOE OSTI2016

VARIABILITY-INDUCED MOTION IN KEPLER DATA

Variability-induced motion (VIM) is an observable effect in simultaneous astrometric and photometric measurements caused by brightness variation in one of the components of a double source or blended image, which manifests itself as a strongly correlated shift of the optical photocenter. We have processed the entire collection of Kepler long-cadence light curve data, looking for correlated signals in astrometry and photometry on the time basis of a quarter-year. Limiting the VIM correlation coefficient to 0.3, VIM events are detected for 129,525 Kepler stars in at least one quarter. Of 7305 Kepler objects of interest , 4440 are detected as VIM at least once. Known variable stars and resolved double stars have elevated rates of VIM detection. Confident VIM occurrences are found for stars with suggested superflare events, indicating possible signal contamination. We present a complete catalog of all quarterly VIM detections. This catalog should be checked for such astrophysically significant events as transits of exoplanets, new eclipsing stars, and superflares of solar-type stars.

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DOE OSTI2016

THE VMC SURVEY. XIX. CLASSICAL CEPHEIDS IN THE SMALL MAGELLANIC CLOUD

The “VISTA near-infrared YJK {sub s} survey of the Magellanic Clouds System” (VMC) is collecting deep K {sub s}-band time-series photometry of pulsating variable stars hosted by the two Magellanic Clouds and their connecting Bridge. In this paper, we present Y , J , K {sub s} light curves for a sample of 4172 Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) Classical Cepheids (CCs). These data, complemented with literature V values, allowed us to construct a variety of period–luminosity (PL), period–luminosity–color (PLC), and period–Wesenheit (PW) relationships, which are valid for Fundamental (F), First Overtone (FO), and Second Overtone (SO) pulsators. The relations involving the V , J , K {sub s} bands are in agreement with their counterparts in the literature. As for the Y band, to our knowledge, we present the first CC PL, PW, and PLC relations ever derived using this filter. We also present the first near–infrared PL, PW, and PLC relations for SO pulsators to date. We used PW( V , K {sub s}) to estimate the relative SMC–LMC distance and, in turn, the absolute distance to the SMC. For the former quantity, we find a value of Δ μ = 0.55 ± 0.04 mag, which is in rather good agreement with other evaluations based on CCs, but significantly larger than the results obtained from older population II distance indicators. This discrepancy might be due to the different geometric distributions of young and old tracers in both Clouds. As for the absolute distance to the SMC, our best estimates are μ {sub SMC} = 19.01 ± 0.05 mag and μ {sub SMC} = 19.04 ± 0.06 mag, based on two distance measurements to the LMC which rely on accurate CC and eclipsing Cepheid binary data, respectively.

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DOE OSTI2016

A TRIP TO THE CATACLYSMIC BINARY ZOO: DETAILED FOLLOW-UP OF 35 RECENTLY DISCOVERED SYSTEMS

We report follow-up studies of 35 recently discovered cataclysmic variables (CVs), 32 of which were found in large, automated synoptic sky surveys. The objects were selected for observational tractability. For 34 of the objects, we present mean spectra and spectroscopic orbital periods, and for one more we give an eclipse-based period. Thirty-two of the period determinations are new, and three of these refine published estimates based on superhump periods. The remaining three of our determinations confirm previously published periods. Twenty of the stars are confirmed or suspected dwarf novae with periods shorter than 3 hr, but we also find three apparent polars (AM Her stars) and six systems with P>5 hr. Five of these systems have secondary stars visible in their spectra, from which we estimate distances when possible. The orbital period distribution of this sample is very similar to that of previously discovered CVs.

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DOE OSTI2016

IS NSVS 5066754 A NEAR-CONTACT OR A MARGINAL CONTACT BINARY?

BVR{sub cIc} light curves of NSVS 5066754 were taken on 2014 May at Dark Sky Observatory in North Carolina. This variable is a solar-type eclipsing binary ( T 1 ∼ 5750 K) with a period of only 0.3751689(1) days. It appeared to be one of the shortest periods in Shaw’s list of near-contact binaries. The Binary Maker fits and our Wilson–Devinney solutions show that the binary could have both semidetached and marginal contact binary configurations. Five new times of minimum light were calculated, along with two minima determined from archived All Sky Automated Survey observations. From these minima and the discovery epoch, a quadratic ephemeris was determined. Thus, a magnetic braking scenario is possible. Both semidetached and contact models were explored. A marginal contact solution had the best sum of square residuals. It gave a mass ratio of ∼0.5, and a component temperature difference of ∼360 K, albeit somewhat large for a contact binary. Two substantial cool spots were determined in this solution with 37° and 28° radii and t-factors or 0.94 and 0.78 respectively. The fill-out is very shallow, ∼106%. It may have recently achieved contact.

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DOE OSTI2017

EXOPLANETARY DETECTION BY MULTIFRACTAL SPECTRAL ANALYSIS

Owing to technological advances, the number of exoplanets discovered has risen dramatically in the last few years. However, when trying to observe Earth analogs, it is often difficult to test the veracity of detection. We have developed a new approach to the analysis of exoplanetary spectral observations based on temporal multifractality, which identifies timescales that characterize planetary orbital motion around the host star and those that arise from stellar features such as spots. Without fitting stellar models to spectral data, we show how the planetary signal can be robustly detected from noisy data using noise amplitude as a source of information. For observation of transiting planets, combining this method with simple geometry allows us to relate the timescales obtained to primary and secondary eclipse of the exoplanets. Making use of data obtained with ground-based and space-based observations we have tested our approach on HD 189733b. Moreover, we have investigated the use of this technique in measuring planetary orbital motion via Doppler shift detection. Finally, we have analyzed synthetic spectra obtained using the SOAP 2.0 tool, which simulates a stellar spectrum and the influence of the presence of a planet or a spot on that spectrum over one orbital period. We have demonstrated that, so long as the signal-to-noise-ratio ≥ 75, our approach reconstructs the planetary orbital period, as well as the rotation period of a spot on the stellar surface.

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DOE OSTI2017

THE STELLAR OBLIQUITY, PLANET MASS, AND VERY LOW ALBEDO OF QATAR-2 FROM K2 PHOTOMETRY

The Qatar-2 transiting exoplanet system was recently observed in short-cadence mode by Kepler as part of K2 Campaign 6. We identify dozens of starspot-crossing events, when the planet eclipses a relatively dark region of the stellar photosphere. The observed patterns of these events demonstrate that the planet always transits over the same range of stellar latitudes and, therefore, that the stellar obliquity is less than about 10°. We support this conclusion with two different modeling approaches: one based on explicit identification and timing of the events and the other based on fitting the light curves with a spotted-star model. We refine the transit parameters and measure the stellar rotation period (18.5 ± 1.9 days), which corresponds to a “gyrochronological” age of 1.4 ± 0.3 Gyr. Coherent flux variations with the same period as the transits are well modeled as the combined effects of ellipsoidal light variations (15.4 ± 4.8 ppm) and Doppler boosting (14.6 ± 5.1 ppm). The magnitudes of these effects correspond to a planetary mass of 2.6±0.9 M{sub Jup} and 3.9±1.5 M{sub Jup}, respectively. Both of these independent mass estimates agree with the mass determined by the spectroscopic Doppler technique (2.487±0.086 M{sub Jup}). No occultations are detected, giving a 2σ upper limit of 0.06 on the planet’s visual geometric albedo. We find no evidence for orbital decay, although we are only able to place a weak lower bound on the relevant tidal quality factor: Q{sub ⋆}{sup ′}>1.5×10{sup 4} (95% confidence).

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